I think the short 5 game series in the first round puts extra emphasis on your top starters.  It is possible to have two excellent pitchers start 4 of the 5 games (with only one going on short rest).  The Phils are in a good situation to take advantage of that.  I had talked about this earlier, but I am actually changing how I'd pitch my starters.

Myers: Wed Sept 24th
Hamels: Tues Sept 23rd
Moyer: Sat Sept 27th

I'd throw Myers out there for game 1 and have him pitch on short rest instead of Blanton (assuming he was successful).  Going on that Myers last two games were a blip and that he was successful on short rest before, I think this would be our best pitching roatation.  He'll have an extra 2 days of rest prior to game one, and this allows us to pitch Hamels in game 5 on normal rest or even start the next series if we win it before 5.

To me, this looks like the best possible way the Phils could manage their post season staff.  If Myers blows up in game 1, then by all means, use Blanton if we get to game 4.  However, leave yourself the option if Myers pitches lights out.

Off of the bomb scare yesterday.  They need to throw some chili, cheese wiz, hot sauce and pickles onto a hotdog and call it the Bomb Dog.  I know I won't eat it, but there are a ton of fat slobs in Philly who will and they will be fighting the terrorists with each bite!

To me, the best case scenario has nothing to do with the individual teams and matchups, but rather, limiting the exposure of their best players against ours.  Since there is nothing we can do to force that, we can hope that luck throws us an Ace of Spades.

Going on the presumption that the final standing will look like this:

Cubs
NL East Winner
NL West Winner
Wild Card

We have the following scenarios:

Phils take East, Brewers take WC, Phils play Brewers.
Phils take East, Mets take WC, Phils play NL West winner.
Phils take WC, Phils play Cubs.

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Entering the last week of the season, I figured I'd try to look at some interesting stats.

Hamels: 220.3 IP

Assuimg Cole makes his next start and pitches 2+ innings, he'll be on pace to have the most innings pitched by a starter in 10 years.  Unless that game goes into some deep extras and Cole pitches them all, he won't match Shilling's 268.7 IP in 1998.  Yeah, 15 complete games.  I don't remember that either.  No CY Young votes for him either.  As a side note and purely an opinion, I noticed that Tyler Green still happened to be on the team that year and I watched him on the post game show today and he sucked.  No offense Tyler, but you were awful.  He said that Howard is a legit MVP candidate because the difference between his .247 avg and Pujols avg is all a bunch of empty bloop hits that mean nothing because you are left on base.  I mean, COME ON MAN!

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Even the most cynical of statistical analysis has to agree that odds are what keep people involved.  If your team has a 1% chance of making the playoffs, well, then you probably are watching football on Sunday afternoon.  Now, how do we get the odds and are the different versions out there really all that, um, different?  I don't think it matters as long as the basic rules are the same.

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Call me crazy, but this is one of the images I get in my head when I think of Brett Myers this year...

This was the epic battle performed while he was in the minors.  Good versus evil (though, in Myer's case, it may be evil vs slightly more evil).  Either way, it looks like mild mannered Brett Myers has fought off his demons and returned to us.  Sure, he ain't this good, but you know, I spent a lot of time saying he wasn't that bad earlier, so, I guess it evens out.

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We can debate what is a good sample and what is not, but I think everyone in the world can agree that 1 AB is not  (unless it is a Derek Jeter post season AB).  So often in my life does the small sample size end up biting me in the ass.  The odds are usually against it working out if you need a very successful play since very successful plays happen so rarely, but we had one, and it might be what ends up being the catalyst to putting the Phils in the playoffs.

What was this AB you may be wondering (or not)?

Friday, August 22nd, Bottom of the 4th inning, 1 on and 2 outs.

R Howard homered to left, P Burrell scored.

The homerun that may have saved the season.

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While driving this evening, I was having my ears bled out by listening to WIP who always caters to the lowest common demoninator fan and justifying it by calling it passion.  The host, whom I won't bother mentioning, was taking calls and defending the town for booing Jimmy Rollins.  One guy called up and said that he booed Burrell relentlessly for the past 2 years (really?) but voted for him as an All-Star cause he finally is playing like he should, also booed Jimmy during all 4 At Bats and will continue to do so until Jimmy apologizes to [him] via the media.

Are you freakin kidding me?

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While responding to dajafi's Kendrick post, I decided to look at the DIPS ERAs for all the Phillies pitchers.  For those unaware, DIPS stands for defense independent pitching stats and was coined by Voros McCracken at the tail end of last century...so get read up.  While not the perfect of all stats, it certainly gives an idea what a pitcher would be doing if luck had no role whatsoever.

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They will kill you.  We certainly have developed a feeling of deservedness.  What is good can always be better.  The old version is always better than the new one.  How quickly we forget what it was like when we had the old version.  If only I could break the space-time continuum and have people taste test last year's Phillies with this year's and really see what they'd prefer.  2 less wins and in third place or 2 more wins and in first place?  It seems obvious, but, you'd not think that listening to a lot of grumbling around town.  It took the Atlanta Braves like 6 or 7 years to get sick of making the playoffs.  We aren't even through half of the second season...

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