2009 Needs:

1 starting pitcher.

I find the argument that says we need to pick up two boils down to "We need one starter to replace Livan Hernandez because he's bad, and one to replace Jorge De La Rosa because he used to be bad." It's right on the first count, but fairly ridiculous on the second, as the same standard could be applied to the start of just about any pitcher's career to disqualify them from contention. The argument that "JDLR walks too many," is more valid, but if the Rockies are going to invest as much as they should in a starter to replace Livan, whatever any leftover funds (should there be any) are going to turn up isn't going to be pretty. One good, reliable pitcher should be all we need.

1 second baseman

1 lead-off hitter

There could be one answer to both these questions, and that would probably be the preference at this point. Our best on base percentage from a second baseman in 2008 is Clint Barmes at .321. Next best is Jeff Baker at .319. Either way making outs 68% of the time is a pretty terrible rate for somebody who will likely have to hit near the top of the order next season. Dexter Fowler, if he is to take over center (and he should) should be buried in a low pressure slot. Troy Tulowitzki, who needs to regain his confidence and form should probably bat seventh at least to start the season. So what's a solution?

I say move OBP machine Chris Iannetta up to the second slot. While not a true leadoff hitter, he's got decent wheels, and you'll be able to keep the more legitimate power threat of Ian Stewart lower in the order. This is why finding a second baseman that would be comfortable batting leadoff should be a top priority for the offseason. So let's talk about some options:

Internal -

Baker

Barmes

Quintanilla

Nix

Herrera

Wimberly

Young

Nelson

For convenience, I've crossed out a few that have seemingly proved unlikely to produce at the level we'd want in MLB play. Herrera might be able to sneak back into that conversation, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Wimberly doesn't feel likely to me either, but he has had a .358 OBP at Tulsa this season, which wouldn't be bad if we could somehow wave a magic wand and translate directly to the MLB without any loss. Unfortunately, the bump up two levels hurts enough that according to Baseball Prospectus' translated stats, that figure would have been .292 with the Rockies this season. Yuck.

Nelson? After a rough start to his year in Tulsa and a broken hamate bone his bat is finally heating up, but even with that his Tulsa numbers are so woeful that it leaves little confidence that he'll be ready for MLB play in 2009.

That brings us to Eric Young Jr, whose OBP numbers actually translate to be better than Barmes or Baker's right now (.330) and who should be capable of getting better as his own stroke returns from a broken hand this season. Add in prodigious speed and him taking on a role his father once held for the team both in the lineup and on the field becomes a very distinct possibility. But Rox Girl, you say, if we're not willing to put Fowler in the pressure of the lead-off slot right out of the minors, why would you put Young there? Let me just put this bluntly: because organizationally, Fowler's more important to protect. Without a high ceiling, players like Young, like Jayson Nix, like Ryan Spilborghs, actually, and like so many others they become the infantry of our system. If they succeed, they become heroes, if they fail, goats, but they aren't going to be afforded the same nurturing patience we afford the potential stars.

Like Nix last season, however, Young would be a crude, relatively unknown tool we'd be asking to fill a skilled and delicate task. I would think he would be an alternative of last resort, as a Plan B to hopefully rise and supplant the Barmes/Baker/Quintanilla trio we have sputtering along right now.

So if we can't find an inside man, where do we turn?

Trade:

Brian Roberts - I'm not even sure how this would be possible, but for whatever reason, his name keeps on getting brought up on the Row. We have a need, so naturally we'll look at the best possible way to fill that need. Given what Seattle wound up giving up for Erik Bedard, and adding other moves the Orioles have made recently, it would likely be too painful for a prospect only trade. The only way I could see it working, given that we are the "buyers" would be if we offered Atkins for him straight up (they'd get two years of controlled service, we'd get one) and saw where it went from there.

I'm aware Atkins alone probably wouldn't get it done, and I imagine if we got to a point where the deal was Atkins plus Gomez or Nelson for Roberts, I'd pull the trigger, but I doubt O'Dowd would. What's more, I doubt that would still be enough to encourage the Orioles to make a trade, and where would we go from there? Chacin? Fowler? Dealbreakers. I just can't see how this one works out.

Are there other guys available via trade? The Cubs seem to have a lot of middle infielders, I guess that would be some place to look.

Free Agency:

Orlando Hudson - Ha! Right. But no if we could afford it, great, like Roberts, it's just not going to happen

David Eckstein - Don't laugh, but Eckstein is a reasonable alternative. He signed a one year deal for Toronto worth $4.5 million. He's had an OBP over .350 for each of the last four seasons and at Coors Field that would play up. Limited to 72 games this season due to injury and 34 years old, his value should be deflated. He'd be a quality defender at second and has plenty of leadoff experience and veteraniness for our guy Hurdle. Really, I think this is an acceptable compromise for me between the All-Star we all want and the peg-legged minor league invite we're probably going to get.

This would make my semi realistic 2009 April starting lineup look like:

1. David Eckstein, 2B
2. Chris Iannetta, C
3. Ian Stewart, 3B
4. Matt Holliday, LF
5. Brad Hawpe, 1B
6. Ryan Spilborghs, RF
7. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
8. Dexter Fowler, CF
9. Ubaldo Jimenez, P

I think I'd be just fine with taking that in this division.

Colorado Springs: W 5-4

The Sky Sox would probably be able to feed a pretty decent Japanese professional league team, as several of these players have hit their AAA peak, but haven't been able to make the necessary quick adjustment to the MLB. Jonathan Herrera's (2 hits last night) lack of power hurts him at the big league level. Jayson Nix (also 2 hits) and Joe Koshansky have swings that are too long. Christian Colonel? He probably will wind up in the same camp, but it's important we give him some opportunity to prove otherwise as is the case with Matt Miller (also a pair of hits). All of these guys are lacking just one or two crucial aspects to their game that keeps them from getting over that last, most difficult hurdle, and it's frustrating and at times heartbreaking to watch them try and overcome this final obstacle. Luck and timing play such a huge factor in how extended their opportunity to prove themselves is. Jeff Baker has had a similar obstacle to overcome, but because he entered the MLB on a hot streak, his major league time has been expanded because we've seen what he's capable of against MLB pitching when he's at the top of his game. Greg Reynolds, who went five innings last night giving up two runs (3 BB's and 0 K's) is a pitching equivalent of these limbo players, and like Nix and Koshansky will be looking for a bit of redemption the next time he puts on a Rockies uniform.

We'll get a good look at a couple of them in September, I'm sure, especially once we're finally put to rest, and it will be interesting to see if anybody's ready to show they're more than AAAA.

Tulsa: L 3-5

Eric Young, Dexter Fowler and Chris Nelson each doubled and went a combined 5 for 10 with a walk in the first three slots of the lineup, but there generally wasn't much support after that. Nelson has really been playing well late in the season, which is very encouraging. Casey Weathers had a perfect inning with a K in relief.

Modesto: L 2-4

The sun rose, set. Jhoulys Chacin pitched and did well. Nothing to see there. Kane Simmons had the only extra base hit for the Nuts while Michael Paulk and Lino Garcia had pairs of singles.

Asheville: L 4-9

Panic about Christian Friedrich setting in? No worries. He had a "One Bad Inning" start, which sometimes indicates that a pitcher is pretty close to putting everything together. A scout that had seen him with Tri-City told me he though Friedrich rushed his delivery and got rattled after mistakes, an "OBI" start would help support this claim. Darin Holcomb had two hits, including a double, and drove in two.

Tri-City: L 3-5

I really like Parker Frazier, and think the Rockies' man in the booth must have taught his son something right, as the kid continues to put up some quietly impressive numbers for his age at this level. He pitched five innings last night, allowed two runs on five hits, walked three, struck out three, but had a solid GB rate.

Casper: W 7-5

I'm really starting to think that there may be some "there" there with Jose Gonzalez. He had a pair of hits including a double and also walked. Wilin Rosario also had two hits including a double and walked twice. Hollingsworth's start was contact oriented, I hope people are right about him improving with better defenses as he goes up levels.  Of course, given our Reds-like Tulsa "D" this season, it might be quite a while before he sees those better defensive units (note: I realize this isn't fair to Asheville, which has some pretty talented defensive parts at most positions).

The Rockies try to win their third straight series, and get some traction for finishing August on a high note. Of course, a loss today would mean the fourth consecutive home losing series, so there's plenty of fodder for the glass half empty side to chew on as well. This will be another statement game for Jimenez, where he can establish himself as a top young pitcher over a talented peer. It should be a good pitching matchup to watch.

Go Rockies!

Colorado Springs: W 7-6

Poor fielding by Las Vegas permitted the Sky Sox to stay close for most of the game, allowing for some late dramatics to secure a win. Joe Koshansky hit his 29th homerun of the season in the bottom of the eighth to tie the contest at six, and then a sequence of three straight singles by Humberto Cota, Jeff Dragicevich and Chris Frey with two down in the bottom of the tenth gave the Sox a walk off celebration. Oscar Villareal had a solid five inning start, Valerio de los Santos was somewhat less solid in his one inning, giving up four of the six Las Vegas runs.

Tulsa: L 1-4

Tough break for Keith Weiser, who pitched well, but got little support from players not named Tony Blanco (two for two plus two walks, the one run was his solo HR). I've had Weiser on the outside looking in on my prospect list for some time, but the minimal adjustment he's needed to AA has me rethinking that .

Modesto: L 7-8

For the next couple of days take performances by Modesto hitters with a grain of salt, and don't get too discouraged by rough outings from pitchers, as Lancaster can skew things to some pretty far extremes. Lino Garcia, Michael Paulk and Angel Cabrera all launched homeruns. Daniel Mayora had four of Modesto's fourteen hits. Aneury Rodriguez allowed five runs, including three on two homeruns.

Asheville: W 2-0

Shane Lindsay continues to perform like a pitcher tantalizingly close to some real breakthrough, but not quite there. So while the Tourists indeed got the shutout in his start, Lindsay was effective but not efficient, and hit his pitch limit before retiring the last out in the fifth, giving way for Edgmer Escalona. Escalona himself had a nice rebound from a pair of shaky appearances earlier in the week with five strikeouts and three hits allowed in two and two thirds innings. Escalona lives and dies off his 93-94 mph heat, yesterday it was obviously working for him.

Jeff Cunningham accounted for all of the runs with his two out, two run blast in the eighth inning. It was Cunningham's 17th HR on the season.

Tri-City: W 5-2

Dust Devils ERA leader Jonnathan Aristil is an okay prospect, and would certainly be in a Rockies top fifty list after this season, let me get that out of the way before I go on with ragging him. The next two seasons will tell us how seriously we should consider him for MLB use, and while I hope this isn't the case, I'm pretty certain that he's going to get exposed. My doubts are based on past performances by FB/changeup pitchers at this level, who typically cruise to gaudy numbers at the start of their minor league careers before slowing down at AA. The problem is that Aristil's numbers are anything but gaudy so far and his inability to avoid bats will only get worse in both quantity and quality of contact against him as the caliber of bats raises. If I saw projection in him, could see that the quality of his pitches could bump up along with the bumps in batter skill level as he advances (as I see with Parker Frazier), then I wouldn't be at all worried. As it stands, however, I think Aristil needs to find another pitch before he's in a legitimate prospect category.

J.R. Murphy struck out the sides in both innings he pitched in relief of Aristil, if you're keeping track, that gives him 40 K's 29 and 2/3 innings for the D-Devils. Murphy was an undrafted free agent, but this is the second year in a row that we've had success with an SDSU Aztec starting pitcher after seeing Bruce Billings outperform expectations as well. I say we should try and get one more next season. Maybe their Friday starter this year (Murphy started Saturdays), I heard he was pretty good.

Casper: L 3-5

Edwar Cabrera continues to disappoint a bit since coming over from the DSL, there really shouldn't be quite this big of a gap in the level of play between the two leagues, I'm still cautiously optimistic that he'll adjust, but it's looking likely that won't happen until 2009. Wilin Rosario and Chad Jacobsen each had a pair of hits in the loss.

Sorry, got back from dinner a bit late.

Go Rockies!

Woot!!! No traffic Saturday!!! Time to break out with the esoteric pointy-head intellectual numbers that would normally drive off my base!

Alright, some food for thought: Ian Stewart currently has a higher VORP (18.4) in 191 PA's at third base than any other third baseman in the division, including what Garrett Atkins gave the team in 539 PA's at third (16.6). Stewart's EQA  of .317 is .020 points higher than the .297 EQA his 90th percentile projection saw him have at the most optimistic reach for this season. So correct me if I'm wrong, but there are a couple of conclusions we can draw from this:

1. Stewart is a much better player than the numbers were thinking he'd be

AND

2. Stewart is incredibly lucky this season and is destined for a Tulo-esque nosedive in 2009.

I think it should probably be pretty clear at this point that it's a combination of the two and not an either/or proposition, but the question is where in that spectrum he's actually at, and how far will he come to earth in 2009?

Other notes: Braves sign Rodrigo to minor league contract with 2009 option. This actually bums me out. I'd much ratehr suffer through Rodrigo's rehab right now than Livan's denouement.

Could Holliday go to the Phils this winter after a Howard trade? We haven't seen the media trying to devalue Holliday yet, as this Rosenthal article implies a healthy multi-player haul still, which is good even if the particular trade premise proposed is a little too complicated and needs too much to fall in line to be considered realistic at this point. I wouldn't take specific rumors seriously until after Thanksgiving, but do keep an eye on the basic parameters being mentioned.

Colorado Springs: L 0-12

Greg Reynolds and Mark Redman's opponents decided to go negative, the the two pitchers will have you know that they will not sit back and let the Las Vegas offense beat up on them like this. No really, stop. Stop. Please stop. Come on, this isn't funny anymore. Stop...

Tulsa: L 7-8

This game actually looks a bit closer than it should have been, but some credit has to be given to Tulsa pitchers and catcher Brian Esposito for containing the damage Arkansas did once they got on board. Of course, a lot of responsibility also has to be given to those same Tulsa pitchers, particularly starter Josh Hall, for letting so many Arkansas runners on in the first place. Surprisingly, despite allowing fifteen hits and two walks over eight innings, the Drillers had a 7-6 lead heading into the ninth, Ryan Mattheus blew his fifth save of the season and allowed the last two runs for the loss, however.

Modesto: W 4-3

Esmil Rogers' first three August starts (after returning from an injury that held him out for the last half of July) were fairly ineffective, not terrible or disastrous, just short four or five inning stints where he'd give up a few runs and the burden of victory was placed mostly on the Nuts offense and bullpen. It's probably not a coincidence that the rough stretch and injury absence happened during the stretch where Modesto slid from first in the second half standings to their current third place position. Rogers' last two starts have been sharp, in each he's allowed just one run and gone six innings or more and the Nuts as a team have been rallying. It seems to me that Rogers more than other starters has been sort of a pivot point for the Nuts, which probably makes sense given his mid-rotation status. At any rate, similarly to Brandon Hynick and Anuery Rodriguez, his overall season line won't drop him far in my prospect ratings, but without a clear step forward, he's allowed other pitchers like Chacin or Connor Graham to make gains and his overall status on the depth chart and in regards to an MLB future with the Rox seems almost certain to be in the bullpen at this point. Right now I see him in this clump of players right around #20 on my list that I'll have to separate.

Two hit games for Van Kooten, Haley, Mayora and Garcia helped the Nuts score enough to hang on for the win.

Asheville: L 4-5

I've been realizing this week while making said prospect list how far my opinion of Helder Velazquez has dropped this season. While he had two hits last night and is having a solid August, this has been the first month all season that he's cracked the .300 OBP level, and that sort of out rate won't help him as pitchers get much tougher after this level. His 31st error of the season yesterday also underscores a feeling I've had watching him play that he's ultimately unsuited for shortstop, and the bat will have to take major steps forward to be useful at other positions. At his age there's still a lot of room for that to happen, but at this point he's fallen back into more of a sleeper with potential category than an actual MLB prospect for me.

Cory Riordan, on the other hand, despite five runs allowed last night, will probably be at the back end of my 30 with teammate Bruce Billings. One of these two ought to emerge as a back end of the rotation candidate down the road.

Tri-City: W 7-2

Parker Frazier continued his impressive run in the Northwest League with another strong effort. Charlie Blackmon hit his second homer of the season and the week (both have been at Yakima), and Johnny Bowden also homered in the win. Thomas Field and Erik Wetzel each had two hits.

Casper: L 1-9

Wilin Rosario singled and scored on Orlando Sandoval's double in the first, but nothing else promising came from this game. I guess Maikol Gonzalez had a pair of hits, he's a player I'm not entirely sure what to make of. The conservative estimate is an organizational player, but there has been at least a little potential shown by him this season. Matt Baugh and Ethan Hollingsworth, two pitchers who I would havee been higher on even earlier this week stumbled pretty badly against Orem. Hollingsworth may be this season's draft disappointment relative to the round he was picked.

Okay, so Livan took care of his bizniz on the road, let's see if he can has his cheezburgerz at home tonight.

Go Rockies!

I alluded to the SBN launch of Driveline Mechanics last week when discussing Max Scherzer, but apparently we can make it official now. While it's a fantastic blog, let's hope that we never see Rockies pitchers discussed over there, as it seems to be more often than not a bad thing if they're bringing somebody up. San Fran's freakboy Timmy was a noted exception, so sorry Matt Garza that you are not.

So, speaking of pitchers, 2009's stable looks more, well, stable everyday. Except for Livan nights. Those we still need to figure out something else to do with next season, but JDLR is succeeding where he and numerous others failed early in the year. It's a streak that's unmatched in his career, but it's backed by both statistical indicators and his scouting reports as being outside the realm of flukedom traversed by others in our inglorious past. Here let me just illustrate using some basic numbers everybody knows. Each of these are strong second half performances over the last few years for Rockies starters:

• Denny Stark 2002: 7-3; 4.48 ERA, 33/40 BB/K, 71 H, 84.1 IP
• Joe Kennedy 2004: 4-3;  3.19 ERA, 28/40 BB/K, 63 H, 62 IP. Rest in peace, Joe.
• Sunny Kim 2005: 5-1; 5.10 ERA, 14/42 BB/K, 70 H (9 HR), 60 IP.
• Jason Jennings 2006:  3.93 ERA, 41/52 BB/K, 84 H, 89.1 IP
  
• Franklin Morales 2007: 3-2, 3.43 ERA, 14/26 BB/K, 34 H, 39.1 IP
• Jorge de la Rosa 2008: 3-2, 3.68 ERA, 22/38 BB/K, 31 H, 36.2 IP

So what stands out? First of all, JDLR is the only one of the above pitchers to display signs of having an "out" pitch, which shows up with him having more K's than IP. This is a big deal and it helps with the next category we should pick up. The low numbers of hits allowed has to be more closely scrutinized, but doing so gives another indication that JDLR isn't just faking it. Stark's BABIP allowed in the second half of 2002 was .195, which is crazy insane lucky. Jason Jennings in 2006? .280, which isn't so far out of the realm of possibility, but with a career BABIP of .314, you can see that he too was getting a bit of help in keeping the hit count low. JDLR's BABIP after the All-Star break in 2008 is .315, which means there's not a lot of added luck to his line right now, that's a very good thing if we're talking about what we should look to expect in the future.

My next concern would be strength of contact, though, and here is where I'm seeing some considerable luck into JDLR's performance. How much could be crucial in determining how high we should get our hopes up. Since the ASB, De La Rosa has allowed just a .328 slugging percentage, while over his career that number has averaged .462. We can assume that his real skill with this number should be higher, but should we just assume that he's going to be giving the same number of bombs and doubles that he had before this 2008 run? The data can't be clear that he has taken a career step forward, there's just not going to be enough of it in two months no matter how you slice it. However, if he has taken such a step, it would stand that his improvement in sugging percentage allowed isn't completely artificial. I'm not completely sure where to go with this, from here. I know JDLR's not quite as good as he appears right now, but I also know that he's a lot closer to being as good than guys we've had in the past who have had similar late runs. The bottom line, I think the Rockies may breathe a sigh of relief that the Ramon Ramirez trade didn't turn out to be a disaster, and let's hope next season it proves to be much better than that.

Colorado Springs: W 13-0

Edwin Bellorin homered twice and drove in four runs, and Franklin Morales continued his mercurial season with another one of his really good outings. I fully expect the seven walk four inning blunder next time out as he seems to remain a tough nut tot crack.

Tulsa: W 4-3

Brandon Hynick's gone six innings or more in each of his last ten starts, and while he's had a couple of noteworthy stinkers, he's been overall pretty successful as the season winds down, last night's six inning, two run effort inclusive. I've been in the frame of mind that he'll be sticking in Tulsa at least to start 2009 partly due to a numbers crunch up the line (Hirsh, Reynolds, Morales and a pair of usual Towers/Konerko type suspects) but Hynick's recent performance has me questioning that guess and at least a bit hopeful we forego one of the suspects next season. It also has him retaining a relatively lofty PuRPs position that was in serious jeopardy at the beginning of the season.

At any rate, Hynick was aided by a two hit night by Christopher Nelson and a three hit night by Tony Blanco. We don't mention Blanco much as there's not much to do with a bad defense minor league journeyman bat except for expressing gratitude for the exceptional services he's rendered to the organization this season. I really wish him well and hope some team gives him another MLB cup o' joe at some point.

Modesto: W 6-2

What can you say about Jhoulys Chacin that hasn't been already said? The machine just keeps on churning out the wins, number 18 on the season after putting up five more scoreless innings last night. The three hit performance with only two K's may help put to rest some of those thoughts that he does too much to avoid contact as well. Jason Van Kooten doubled and homered and Michael Paulk homered and singled in Modesto's victory.

Asheville: W 12-8

The Tourists raced out of the gate and gave Christian Friedrich plenty of help in his debut with the team. A seven inning first helped mitigate some shakiness by our first rounder, who walked four and allowed four hits and three runs in four innings. If his experience in Tri-City is any omen, than he should be rolling by the time the season ends and he hits Instructs. Mike Mitchell and Lars Davis each had three hits, David Christensen two in the win.

Tri-City: L 3-8

Chris Vasami and Leonardo Reyes each had three hits. I mentioned yesterday that I'm still high on Reyes despite a weak overall line, his August gives a good indication why: .281/.338/.516. If I find an opening down on my PuRPs list, he'd definitely be considered.

Casper: W 14-7, W 12-9

Somebody who's not going to be considered for my list is Jose Gonzalez, but I'm going to be certain to mention what a great day he had yesterday, going eight for nine with a pair of doubles and a homerun in the two seven inning games of a double header. Along with the homerun he hit against Great Falls earlier in the week, the performance amounts to a wake-up call to me. Right now it's nothing more than that, but I will be looking to see what he can do to build off this. Sometimes nothing comes after performances like this (Pedro Strop had week like that when he was still an infielder in the system with Tri-City) and sometimes the players seem to use days/weeks like this as a springboard to better things. We'll just wait and see what Gonzalez does with this.

One reason to remain a bit skeptical is that yesterday was one of those days where anybody who held a bat turned into Albert Pujols. Typically separation of the haves from the have-nots only comes for the players that have big days in both fat and lean times. Anyway, Delta Cleary had two homeruns, one in each game, and Zack Murry and Shane Lowe also homered in the second game. Cleary added a triple and Murry a double in that later game while Orlando Sandoval and Maikol Gonzalez each had two doubles in the early contest. In further evidence that something was in the air or ball yesterday, Kurt Yacko gave up a pair of homeruns in his one inning of work, doubling the number he'd put up in 22 innings prior to that.