Chad Reineke RHP, 1-0, 5.40

Brandon Webb RHP, 18-4, 2.85

Baseball-Reference.com preview [opens in new window]

Our streak atop the division has been occasionally fragile - perhaps the closest was August 9th where, the Dodgers blew a 10th-inning lead that would have let them overtake us. But one stat [shamelessly stolen from Dodger Thoughts] explains why its unbroken. Since leaving second-place on April 5th, Arizona have woken up tied for first-place nine times. They are a remarkably clutch 9-0 in games played that day, having outscored our opponents 66-27 in those contests.

Tonight, with a 1.5-game lead [the Dodgers having won this afternoon], there is no such issue, but with Webb on the mound, going for his nineteenth win, I have to feel confident. He hasn't lost a game in almost two months, being 7-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last ten outings - and a perfect five-for-five, with a 1.89 ERA, in the past month. Reineke has one major-league start under his belt, but as we've seen before [c.f. Cueto, Johnny], that doesn't necessarily mean very much.

It's been a fun series so far, with the new-found fondenss by the Diamondbacks for strolling to first overcoming an offensive indifference [our SLG this series is 32 points above our OBP!] Still, our OPS for August is .780, our best since April, and that's reflected in a healthy average of 5.33 runs per game. That's not apparently 'luck', either - our BABIP is .292, basically identical to the NL average of .294. I note, with some interest, the Dodgers are up at .325, so their recent success has the scent of over-achievement.

Should be about for this: we finished the PFFF program, and so I shouldn't have too much to do this evening. Whether I choose not do it in the living-room, or in the office, will likely determine my participation in the comments! I'll finish with another stat, this one courtesy of Padres catchers are hitting .195 this season. No other teaGennm in baseball has an entire position south of the Mendoza Line.

This started with Nick Piecoro reporting before the game last night, "They’re taking batting practice downstairs, and over at second base -- taking ground balls from a coach, turning phantom double plays -- is none other than Mark Reynolds... Keep in mind, many in the organization feel that Reynolds might be more than a just an option at second base this season -- some think he could be their 2009 second baseman, if need be. A bigger question might be how Chad Tracy, coming off of knee surgery, handles third base, a position he has only played two times this season."

Said Reynolds previously, "If they want me to I will. It won't affect anything. I feel comfortable over there, I feel comfortable at third base. Whatever they want." However, there's little doubt that, while it will allow the Diamondbacks to put their best possible offense out there, it will be a defensive hit, not only at second, but also at third, where we'll see how Tracy's knee holds up, and additionally at first, since Adam Dunn hasn't played that position regularly since 2005.

Our poll on the topic, after the signing of Dunn, proved a hot topic, with more votes than any other in SnakePit history. 32% of respondents supported this configuration - slightly more (40%) preferred moving Dunn to LF and bring Jackson to 1B, though still with Tracy moving to third and Reynolds becoming second. That would likely screw us up even more defensively, with a downgrade at four separate positions. One alternative I've heard mentioned is simply plugging Upton back in at second-base, buit that seems unlikely at this stage.

Record: 66-60. Pace: 85-77. Change on last season: -5.
Magic number: 35. Playoff odds: 62.4%

I apologize for the typo in the preview to today's game. When I said, "If I were you, I wouldn't blink tonight, or you might miss three innings," that should, of course, have been, "...or you might miss three runs." I apologize for any inconvenience that this may have caused.

Well, the expected pitching duel didn't quite turn up, did it? A pair of starters, both with ERAs under three, combined to allow ten earned runs in eleven innings, on sixteen hits and four walks. The score was 6-4 to Arizona by the end of the second, the Diamondbacks showing remarkable fortitude in coming back after Haren allowed the Padres to leap out to a four-run lead. After a double by Ojeda and a walk to Jackson, Dunn launched his second Adam Bomb in as many games, with a three-run shot that went from zero to the bleachers in about 1.8 seconds.

All of a sudden, Arizona was right back in it, and Snyder's 13th homer of the season, with one out in the second, brought everything right back to square one. Not content with that, however, Dan Haren then drew a walk against Peavy - the last time the Padres ace walked an opposing pitcher was May 6 last year. Drew singled, and both men advanced an extra ninety feet, as the Padres' RF totally muffed the play. Though Ojeda popped out, Jackson then lofted a beautiful bloop to right, scoring both men - and a Win Probability of only 18.7% after the Padres went 4-0 up, had suddenly improved radically, and was now a much more acceptable 72.6%.

After this unexpected extension of batting practice, things settled down, with six zeros being posted between the two starters. Though, to be honest, Haren was still far from his best, with the lead-off man for the Padres reaching in each of the first four inning, and San Diego mastering a total of eleven hits off Dan. The good thing is, he didn't walk anyone in his six innings, and became the first Arizona pitcher to allow so many hits and get a W, since May 27 last year - no prizes for guessing the last man to do it [indeed, the last two!] was Livan Hernandez. Haren was still some way off the worst-ever outing by a winning D-backs pitcher. That belongs to Casey Daigle; in May 2004, he pitched five innings, allowed twelve hits, three walks and seven runs, but we took that one 12-8.

The Padres did get one run back before Haren departed, but Qualls and Peña were extremely solid, both pitching perfect innings, on eleven and fourteen pitches respectively. A couple of extremely valuable insurance runs were plated for our side in the seventh, taking advantage of some more Padres wildness. Three walks loaded the bases, and Mark Reynolds swatted a double down the left-field run, for RBI numbers #84 and #85. With 36 games to go, Special K has already driven in more runs than any Diamondbacks hitter since 2005, when Troy Glaus has 97 and Tony Clark 87. Both of those should fall, as Reynolds is on pace for 112, which would be the best since Gonzo's 2001 figure of 142.

Eight more walks took us to 50 free passes in the eight games since Adam Dunn joined the club. Two more for him - eleven since arriving in total, giving the Donkey a line of .308/.500/.615. Compare that to Mandy's .403/.488/.716, and thus far, it looks like Arizona have picked up a comparable offensive threat. I'm particularly impressed that we have scored fifteen runs this series and taken both games, despite having batted only .220 [13-for-59] and been outhit almost two-to-one by the Padres, at 25-13. Heaven knows what we might do if this team started hitting...

Brandon Lyon was 'unavailable' in the ninth. I think this was perhaps on the basis that his appearance on the mound in a save situation would have resulted in a crowd reaction that made Disco Demolition Night look like a palace tea-party. Instead, Jon Rauch took the mound and threw strikes - despite the best efforts of home-plate umpire Chuck Meriwether to call them otherwise. Sure, Jody 'Snake Killer' Gerut smacked one of them into the right-field bleachers to make it a two-run game. However, that was all the damage done, and we could turn our attention to Chavez Ravine, where the Rockies were coming back from 3-0 down...

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Adam Dunn, +22.0%
Honorable mentions: Jackson, +14.2%; Snyder, +10.0%
God-emperor of suck: Dan Haren, -11.7%

Thanks to everyone in the Gameday Thread for their contributions: DbacksSkins, 4 Corners Fan, Zephon, Eric SanInocencio, singaporedbacksfan, kishi, hotclaws, J Up, Muu, Diamondhacks, foulpole, utahdbacksfan, AJforAZ, Azreous, Scrbl, njjohn, SongBird and TwinnerA. That was fun: a lot more so, after we'd clawed our way back from the four-run, first-inning deficit. It's good to see the team showing the fortitude to do that against an opposing ace - something of a contrast to their performance on Sunday, though Oswalt was simply dominating on that day, and few lineups could have withstood his performance.

The Rockies duly completed the comeback, and we have a whole two games of breathing-room at the top of the division now. It seems like forever since we were that far clear, but it's actually only two weeks - the last was the night that the Pirates' Karstens nearly perfectoed us. However, the victory also moves us six games over .500, and it has been a long while since we were that far above parity: June 13th, to be exact. With Brandon Webb going for us tomorrow, as he aims for his nineteenth victory, and we aim for a sweep of the Padres, I am beginning to feel, cautiously, more optimistic about this team than I have for a while - certainly, since they took the first two games of the Dodgers series at the end of July. Still, let's win again tomorrow - I may have mentioned this before, but as long as we keep doing that, we'll be fine.

Jake Peavy RHP, 9-8, 2.61

Dan Haren RHP, 13-6, 2.96

Baseball-Reference.com preview [opens in new window]

Poor Dan Haren. In almost half of his starts (12 of 25), he's got four runs or less of support from the offense. And tonight looks likely to be another case, since in Peavy's two appearances against us this season, we've managed two runs in fourteen innings, on only seven hits, with fifteen strikeouts. No, it's not going to be easy tonight, but in Dan Haren, we send out a pitcher who is certainly capable, on his day - and that's most of the time - of matching Peavy in zeros.

Haren got back on track last time out, after a couple of rocky outings, with eight innings of two-run ball in Coors Field. He has made three starts against the Padres so far in 2008, going seven innings each time and allowing a total of five earned runs in those 21 innings, with seventeen hits, just two walks, and sixteen K's. Between him and Peavy, If I were you, I wouldn't blink tonight, or you might miss three innings.

A win tonight locks the series down and, with Webb going tomorrow against an unheralded rookie, would also give us a great chance of completing the sweep. I'll be about - tonight, I'm supposed to be on the 'puter, working on the program for the PFFF, but last night I was supposed to be doing a lot more than watching Brandon Lyon implode! So we'll see how that works out...

Baseball Prospectus has an interesting article - the bulk is restricted to subscribers, but I feel I can pick out some extracts from that, to shed some light on to our fielding woes this season. Defensive Efficiency is a metric that measures the percentage of balls in play which a defense converts into outs. The higher the percentage, the better your defense. However, that raw figure masks variations between parks: as the article says, "The amount of foul territory, size of the outfield, irregularities in the field's dimensions, altitude, and surface of play can all have an impact on the degree of difficulty when it comes to defending one's home turf."

But just as you can come up with park factors that take into account a stadium's impact on hitters, so you can do so for its impact on fielders. Fenway, Dolphin Stadium, Progressive Field (formerly Jacobs Field), and Coors Field are hardest for fielders, while the Metrodome, Tropicana Field, McAfee Coliseum, and Petco Park are easiest. Arizona's three-year factor is 0.9950, slightly tougher than average. You can use this to come up with an overall figure for the percentage above or below ML average that a team converts into outs, when adjusted for the degree of difficulty provided by their home field. Each 1% is worth about 13 additional runs saved or allowed, which would be more than one win in the standings.

Overall, Arizona's defense is ranked ninth in the majors, having converted 0.59% more balls in play into outs than would be expected for a team playing at Chase. For comparison, top are the Cubs, at +2.60%, and worst are the Reds, all the way down at -4.30%. That figure is the best in the division, by quite some distance - we're the only team better than average, well ahead of the Giants (-0.94%); the rest of the West trails in below them, with the Padres and Rockies tied for worst, at -1.23%. So, despite how it may feel at times, our defense has been better than our rivals at doing what it's supposed to: making outs.

However, it is also important to note that our figure is a significant drop on the +1.19% which we had last season - good enough for fifth overall. That does tie with what we've seen this year: a disappointing regression with the glove by many players, despite then being a year more experienced and at the age where they should not yet be expected to be slowing down. It's difficult to break down the source of the drop, but I do note Mark Reynolds has gone from -6 Fielding Runs Above Average last season, down to -11 this year. The replacement of Carlos Quentin (-1) with Justin Upton (-7) in right, is likely also a contributory factor.

Record: 65-60. Pace: 84-78. Change on last season: -6.
Magic number: 37. Playoff odds: 55.2%.

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Master of his domain: Tony Peña, +37.7%
Honorable mentions: Dunn, +18.8%; Davis, +13.6%; Young, +10.2%
God-emperor of suck: Brandon Lyon, -36.1%

I'm moving the FanGraph up, since they say a picture is worth a thousand words - and that's true for the above, which illustrates nicely the snooze-fest that was the second-half - up until Brandon Lyon's spectacular meltdown. There were certainly a thousand words uttered in SnakePit Towers during the ninth, in a wide-ranging discussion which included Brandon's parentage, his leisure activities, and a future career, based around the phrase, "D'you want fries with that?" In non-save situations over the past month, the results have been less than impressive: 2.1 innings, resulting in 11 hits, three walks and seven earned runs. That's a good part of why his ERA on July 18 was 2.37; it's now 4.60.

Today, Lyon came in with a comfortable 7-3 lead, but retired one of the six batters he faced, and Melvin had to go to Tony Peña, with the tying run on third and only one out. [I have to say, our Win Probability at that point felt an awful lot lower than the unemotional 62.3% claimed by FanGraphs!] He got Hundley to ground back to him, and calmly threw to Snyder, catching the runner coming home in a rundown. By the time the tag was made, men were on second and third, so the Padres were a bloop away from taking the lead, but Peña got the hitter to fly out to Chris Young, to preserve the victory, and send San Diego to a record of 3-56 when trailing after six innings. It was Tony's first save since May 16th, and I think few will begrudge him the position as Master of his Domain tonight.

That made a winner out of Doug Davis who pitched - and I can hardly believe I am typing these words - a quality start, allowing two runs over six innings. If the mark of a great pitcher is being able to get the victory despite not having his best stuff, i nominate Davis for the Cy Young this year. Because he was frickin' awful early on: unable to find the strike-zone with anything apart from batting-practice fastballs, with virtually all the outs being hard-hit balls that happened to find fielders. The second was particularly wretched, the first four Padres all reaching, to score one run and load the bases with no-one out.

However, all San Diego managed to add on was a sacrifice fly and, as so often, Davis worked through the issues. He ended up producing his best outing of August, giving up seven hits and two walks in six innings, fanning six. He threw 100 pitches - only 58 of them were for strikes. He turned it over to the A-bullpen, where Qualls has a perfect seventh, though Rauch struggled a bit in the eighth, with two hits and a walk, leading to an earned run. The coroner's report which was the ninth has already been sufficiently re-hashed, I feel - but I do think a debate should be opened on whether Lyon remains as closer down the stretch. He shouldn't be fatigued: at 47.2 IP, he's well short of his total last year [74], but the results of late have been far from comforting.

Fortunately, the offense proved just up to the task, breaking out early - for the third time in four games, we sent nine men to the plate in the first inning. Arizona were able to take advantage of wildness from opposing starter Banks, who walked no less than seven in four innings of work. That included four in the first inning, and we scored four times as a result, on RBI singles by Jackson and Snyder, and sacrifice flies sent out there by Reynolds and Burke. The patience at the plate was especially crucial on a night where San Diego outhit Arizona 13-7. It is, certainly, due in part to bad pitching and a small sample size, but we've been averaging six walks per game since the arrival of Adam Dunn - that compares to 3.4 over the 118 before he got here. Dunn himself had two more, for a total of nine in seven games.

He also got his first home in an Arizona jersey, a two-run shot in the fourth to right, even though he clearly didn't get all of the pitch. So he reached safely three times, increasing his OBP for the Diamondbacks to .485. Ojeda, Young and Snyder all followed suit in this department, and Conor Jackson had two hits - that was good to see, as CoJack had been scuffling, having gone 5-for-34 with two RBI in eight appearances, since his last multi-hit game on the 7th. He singled home a run in the seventh, what turned out to be a crucial insurance run, even if we didn't realize it at the time of execution.

An unsurprisingly busy thread, with over 750 comments. I would have participated more, but dinner, a large bag of cookies and sloth kept me in front of the television set [when I should really have been much more productive!] Also present were utahdbacksfan, DbacksSkins, TwinnerA, soco, snakecharmer, Azreous, AZWILDCATS, foulpole, seanprh, 4 Corners Fan, kishi, Scrbl, emilylovesthedbacks, The Main Man, singaporedbacksfan, SongBird, J Up, Muu, hotclaws, pepperdinedevil, Zephon and dbacksbj.

With the Dodgers going down to Colorado, we're back in first place, all by ourselves. I've decided to tempt the baseball gods by posting our Magic Number, which is the number of Arizona wins and/or Los Angeles losses necessary for us to reach the playoffs. If we drop out of first, it will be replaced by our anti-Magic Number, the number of Arizona losses and/or LA wins necessary for us to be eliminated. I'll also post the playoff chances, as worked out at CoolStandings.com, but those sometimes don't get updated until post-recap, so those may be TBA depending on when we play. The current 55.2% figure is the best since August 6.

Josh Banks RHP, 3-5, 4.37

Doug Davis LHP, 4-7, 4.79

Baseball-Reference.com preview [opens in new window]

38 games to go, and the old adage that the baseball season is a marathon not a sprint, is becoming increasingly less applicable. It's getting to the stage where things are simple enough: whoever wins the most games over the next six weeks, out of ourselves and the Dodgers, will get into the playoffs. The other stays home in October. Los Angeles have the edge in the schedule - they have nine games against the Padres and three versus Washington, twelve contests against sub-.400 opposition. We have only six facing the Padres, so have to take advantage of them, starting tonight.

Doug Davis has, however, basically sucked after being kept out there by Bob Melvin for 124 pitches as he pursued a perfect game - and then for an additional five batters beyond that point. In three starts, he has thrown a mere 11 innings and allowed 21 hits, eight walks and 15 earned runs. Now, the near-perfecto was more of an aberration than anything, we need a return to his form of the first half, where he had a 3.80 ERA, not the 7.22 posted in the second-half. He is facing the Padres - victims of his last good outing - but if he struggles again, then I imagine some consideration needs to be given to DL'ing him, with Max Scherzer probably getting the call. A quick hook there is imperative, given the short nature of the pennant chase; it may simply be that Davis has run out of steam, the rehab from his surgery finally taking its toll after 100 innings.

Banks also struggled in his last start, with his control being particularly lacking - he walked six Milwaukee batters in 4.1 innings. That was a bit of an aberration, but we did also beat him at Chase in July, squeaking out a 3-2 win, in which he allowed all three runs in six innings. Upton and Reynolds homered off him that night. The Padres offense has struggled of late, scoring three or less in six of the last eight games, though the overall average is skewed by the other two games, in Colorado, where they scored 24 runs. One stunning stat: the Padres are 3-55 when trailing after six innings, so if we're leading then... Arizona have been pretty solid offensively since the arrival of Dunn: Sunday's shut-out was the first time in ten games they've been held to less than four runs.

Should be about for most of this series, and I'm thinking we should look to take two out of three, at least. Thursday, with Webb on the mound, looks like a cert, but today is much less certain. Tomorrow, with Haren facing Peavy, should be an excellent pitching match-up, and could go either way too. With Los Angeles facing Colorado, it'd be nice to get back into the lead, but the main thing is to take care of our own business and let the Dodgers worry about themselves.

Week 20 Results

AZ SnakePit 1. Douchebaggery 9
Snake's playoff hopes took a hammering with this brutal loss, Nathan's two saves being their only point. They didn't play that badly, but Douche got two Wins and 18 K's from Vazquez as well as two Wins by Marcum - Youkilis (9 R, 3 HR, 8 RBI) led their offense.

dbacktom 1. Blonde Streaks 7
tom plunged from third to sixth after this shocking defeat, where Bush's nine K's led t their only victoty. Blonde's ERA was 1.78, with Valverde notching three saves; they also got ten Runs from Pedroia and eight RBI by Garko. Wins and SB both ended tied for the week.

The Fighting Amish 9, Wimboes Barmy Army 1
Amish are rounding into form nicely, crushing Wimboes behind two Wins and 13 K's from Santana. and 17 K's by Lincecum. Pena had four homers and Markakis a 10 R, 9 RBI week. Wimb got a W and 10 K from Mussine, but their only point came in BA, where they hit .306.

Tucson Myth 1, Arizona Muugens 7
Muugens piled up 59 K's on the week: four pitchers had 10+, led by Sanchez with 14. Huff's three-homer, nine RBI performance helped them score big on offense too, and Myth's sole score came in BA, as they batted over .300. Neither team managed an SB and Saves ended tied.

7-2 Offsuiters 8, Desert Storm BC 2
7-2 took a big step towards the post-season, Berkman driving in ten runs for them at the plate. They also posted a 2.54 ERA, Martinez + Kuroda getting a W and 7 K's each. Storm struggled, but got two saves from Lidge and hit .311 on the week, Ramirez batting .533.

Adriano Rosario's 6, Desert Dingleberries 4
Ethier (Adriano) homered four times, but Kinsler (three HR, six RBI) gave Dingle a slight edge at the plate. However, Adriano dominated pitching, with a W and 13 K's by Kazmir. Kershaw (Dingle) fanned 14 and while both pitched well - ERAs of 2.50 and 2.59 - Adriano were just a little better.

Crazy VIII's 7, Ignatius J. Rallies 2
Both sides batted over .300, with VIII posting a figure of .313:: Ibanez scored seven, while he and Lowrie hit .500 or better, as did Teixeira for Rallies. On the mound, a W and 14 K's for VIII from Danks proved crucial as they scored four points, and cruised to overall victory.

Kapsaicin Kids 4, GregSchulteOverdrive 6
Greg maintained their playoff push, with fourteen homers and 50 RBI - Mora had three HR and drove in 13. Kids hit a league-best .362 and got a W, two SV and 7 K from Broxton, but Greg had two victories out of Volquez, and their staff also had a league-best 1.84 ERA.

Shenanigans 2.0 2. warlords 6
war continued to cruise towards a top seeding, despite only three Homers, 17 Runs and onw Win. They did get ten RBI from Ramirez - almost half their total - and Reyes stole three bases. Shen got two Wins and 14 K's from Oswalt, and managed a split of the pitching points.

last place 2, SHUperMen 5
last ran up 41 runs - Roberts had eight - but that was a rare victory, as SHU generally had the edge. Neither team managed a save, while K and HR also finished even. Maine (SHU) was the best pitcher, with a W and six K's, A-Rod (last) had two HR and seven RBI.

Standings

Week 21 Games

AZ SnakePit vs. dbacktom
Douchebaggery vs. SHUperMen
The Fighting Amish vs. Blonde Streaks
Tucson Myth vs. Wimboes Barmy Army
7-2 Offsuiters vs. Arizona Muugens
Adriano Rosario's vs. Desert Storm BC
Crazy VIII's vs. Desert Dingleberries
Kapsaicin Kids vs. Ignatius J. Rallies
Shenanigans 2.0 vs. GregSchulteOverdrive
last place vs. warlords

With just two regular-season weeks to go, no-one has yet clinched a playoff spot, and only one team is mathematically eliminated. That said, some managers will be more relaxed than others, and Adriano Rosario's vs Desert Storm pits two teams who still have a lot to play for. Both have struggled a bit in recent weeks, and this will be a chance for one or other to right the ship and head towards the post-season. Rosario's hit well; with Braun and Hamilton combining for 59 HR and 200 RBI, while Storm will rely heavily on the bat of Dye.