So is Manny Rameriez worth his salary?  I am starting to think that there is a justification to giving the man $20+ million for the next couple year.  I am not saying that the Cardinals should do this, but I was interested in the Dodgers run production since Manny arrived.  TBS flashed the Dodgers runs per game before and after Rameriez arrival.  4.2 runs per game before and 4.7 runs per game after.  A half run a game over the course of a season is 80 runs.  That is about 8 wins.  If we take $3 million a win (which is the last figure I heard the Cardinals use as a baseline) that come out to a worth of $24million a year.  I know this is kinda fast ansd loose with the numbers but I have been thinking of what Pujols will be worth at the end of his contract and $24 million is sounding more than reasonable to me.

I live in Chicago.  This is going to make me sound evil.  I was raised to hate only one thing on this earth and that is the "organization" known as the Chicago Cubs.  But today, when I should be happy at their demise, I am dissapointed.  Why?  Because all of the Cubs fans have lowered their expectations.  As I walk around town today I hear a litany of excuses like:

Eh, we really don't have enough bats. (this is BS)
Pinella is crazy for taking Zambrano out. So our manager is an idiot. (sorta true)
Lilly was pitching on three days rest. (yes that is right)
etc...

Gawd, Cubs fans are pathetic. Which is why I need them to win a couple games.  I need the Cubs fans that I work and live with to have hope, so that hope can be dashed by the tramatic seemingly random event (ie bartman) that will leave them talking about how they are losers for years to come.

BTW, they skinned a goat and hung it from Harry Carey's statue.

<l>http://i86.photobucket.com/albums/k110/bigjawnmize/thegoat.jpg</l>

Seriously, how does it feel to be cursed by a goat?

While reading the FJM ripping Bryan Burwell's article from a couple days back, they used the Lord Scrapford von Grit nickname for Eckstien.  This got me thinking about nicknames and t-shirt ideas for the site.  We should just do a t-shirt with the nicknames for players that we have come up or come up with spanish nicknames for all the players along the lines of El Hombre.  Just a thought...

I have been thinking about this a little bit, but the stats Larry posted today about runs allowed started to make me wonder if Duncan hasn't lost a bit of his luster for the organization.  Considering his poor track record of developing young pitching and mandate from Dewitt to develop young talent, I think that Duncan's (and LaRussa's) time here is short.  With that said does the organizational philosphy of pitch-to-contact outlast Duncan?  I would have said no until this last draft where most of the first day pitching prospects already throw sinkers and seem to fit into the organizational philosphy easier than Ottavanio and some of the past drafted pitchers.  Is Luhnow taking orders from Jocketty as to which skills to look for from pitchers or does he buy into the pitch-to-contact mantra?

this is a little bit of a theroy, but i think that it is pretty well founded on experience and observation.

there was a discussion in the thread that high pitch counts injure pitchers not high innings pitched totals.  i don't neccesarily agreed with this.  although there has been plenty of work on pitcher abuse from high pitch counts, there has been less on innings pitched totals.  but there has been work to determine the year to year percentage of work increase that is acceptable for a pitcher--current theory has it at 30% inning increase year to year.  

i don't agree with either idea really.  my thought is that the number of maximum effort pitches is what is important for arm health.  lets take livan hernadez for example, high pitch counts but very durable.  he is not throwing every pitch at maximum effort.  he is saving some in his tank for high leverage situations and innings.  to go to a four man rotation and increase the number of innings a pitcher throw will increase the number of high leverage innings he pitches and inturn increase the number of max effort pitches thrown during a year.  i think this increases the chance of injury more than a pure pitch count vs innings pitched argument.

So watching everyone wear their speeze soul patches, it got me thinking about promotianl ideas that they should do for next season.  Of course the soul patch fits into the "Joe Mauer Sideburns Day" sort of theme that the Twins had.  I was thinking we needed something more orginal, something along the lines of Ronnie Belliard Prosthetic Tongue Day"  Just thought I would throw that out there, I figure everyone can come up with better ones.

So ok I got into drawing other ideas for the VEB t-shirt if we can't use the Amadee image.  I need a translation to do a mock-up for posting.  I kinda got the idea from the "the birds are life" which i might just throw "el birdos son todos" on their anyway.  The image is a half-cardinal/half-heart (anatomically correct).  It is kinda creepy, edgey, and actually kinda cool.  I was looking for "red bird at heart" or "heart of a red bird"--something along those lines...any other ideas are welcomed. Update [2006-10-6 9:8:12 by BigJawnMize]: Threw a mock-up below. I know it is in B&W and should be in red. I just don't have the good software for this stuff anymore. The idea is that the image would be similary located and sized to your acutual heart on the shirt, representing what makes you tick--in a way.

OK so this last couple weeks I have had this folk song by Townes Van Zandt called "No Deal" going through my head.  The first verse goes something like this:

Now this man down at the used car lot,
tried to sell me four wheels and a trunk.
I said, "Man, there is no engine!"
He said, "The engine's just a bunch of junk.
Besides you don't need no engine to go downhill
and as I can plainly see, that's the direction you're headed in."
And he handed me the keyes.

Yup that is kinda how I am feeling right now.  I know we did Uncle Tupelo/Wilco/Son Volt songs in one of the threads.  But if anyone has any country lyrics they want to share, this might be an appopriate time.

I have been hearing rumblings that Izzy's hip is alomost totally shot and may require a total replacement in the near future.  This makes sense to me, and explains the jekyl/hyde month to month splits the lboros has pointed out a couple times.  Basically he has been good after he has had injections to relieve the pain and bad as those means wear-off.  So what do we do next year if Izzy retires and doesn't pitch after this season? Is Wainwright the heir apparent to the closer role in the circumstance?

Ok I am throwing this out there as a theory.  If anyone wants to add their two cents they are more than welcomed.  

Let us start with the idea that relievers are very inconsistent from year to year.  I think there are two reasons for this. First, most relievers only have two major league ready pitches.  Since it takes two pitches to get most major league hitters out, once a reliever loses command or confidence of one of these pitches he is toast as hitters will sit on the one pitch he can throw.  Second, reliever's workloads vary from year to year as managers ride the hot arm.  The idea is that a reliever having a good year will get 80 innings but will be less likely to throw that amount again next year just from the wear and tear of the previous year.  A reliever throwing only forty innings will be more likely to bounce back to normal stats the next year due to reduced workload.  (Remember this is a theory, I haven't looked the stats up.)

Based on these two ideas building a bullpen becomes a practice in risk management.  We have limited types of pitchers we should acquire and for very short contracts.  I think that maybe the whole logic of having closers on multi-year contracts and middle relievers on short contracts is flawed.

The first type of pitcher is one just converted to a relief role from a starting role.  This is because of the idea mentioned above that relievers have only two reliable pitches.  Most starters have three pitches they throw.  If they lose confidence in one of their pitches they still have two pitches working.  As they throw more relief innings they will eventually lose one of their pitches and focus on their best two.  Generally these guys fill up middle relief roles and make-up about fifty percent of a bullpen. (3-4 slots out of 6 or 7 bullpen pitchers)  Since they are not so far removed from starting, it might be safe to give these guys contracts ranging from two to three years, as they would still retain their three pitches.  It would also be wise to have five or six of these guys on your 40 man roster to account for injury and inconsistency.  These guys are failed starters, you should be able to pick them up for league min-1 million per.

The second type of pitchers are pitchers that have had success in the past but are coming off of low workload seasons because of general ineffectiveness.  (This is just an idea.  I usually build my fantasy staff off of guys like this and do really well.)  Of course this describes a lot of pitchers in all shapes and sizes.  Methink that it would be wise to pick up the high strike-out types and potential LOOGYs of the bunch and give them one to two year contracts at 2-3 million per.  Out of this type of pitcher you would want to find a closer, a LOOGY, and set-up types.  Again it would be wise to have a couple extras on the 40 man roster for insurance.

Let take a look at the finances. 7 guys in a pen and 12 potential candidates on a 40 man roster.  

3 set-up, LOOGY, closer types @ 2.5 mil/per = 7.5 mil
4 mid-relief types @ 750K/per = 3 mil
2 set-up, LOOGY, closer types on AAA roster @ 1 mil/per = 2 mil
3 mid-relief types on AAA roster @ 500K/per = 1.5 mil

14 million for a pen with an ample insurance policy.  Stills seams expensive, but we are talking about 10.5 million on the major league team. Oh yeah, no veteran closers required.