babip Stories - Viva El Birdos
In-Season Batter Regression Tool Updated
click to enlarge Earlier this year I released a tool that allows you to quickly calculate what a batter's offensive line might look like if they were sporting the same BABIP and HR/FB this year as their 3-year averages. The tool isn't a competitor to ZiPS or any other projection tool, rather it...
Regress, Regress I Say! (Complete with In-Season Batter Regression Tool)
(Click here to enlarge) (Thanks to J-Doug and commenter hairball for helping me find an error in the calculator. Data and post have been updated accordingly) So much is driven early on by small sample sizes that it can be easy to get overly excited about a batters hot or cold start. After only...
Have the Indians been lucky, good, or a little of both so far?
via (Click to enlarge) The Indians sport the second best run differential (+17) in the American League and sit atop the AL Central, scoring just over 5.0 R/G while only allowing 3.5 R/G. Last year's squad finished in 4th place in the AL Central with a run differential of -106. Cleveland's start...
Looking at History to Project Austin Jackson in 2011
While waiting to board a flight I saw the following tweet by Jon Heyman regarding the Detroit Tigers Austin Jackson: fantasy thought: austin jackson looks fantastic in #tigers camp. could be primed for monster year Of course, this got me thinking about what we should expect from Jackson this...
2010 Rockies Player Review: Dexter Fowler
Take a look at 2 sample batters from the Rockies in 2010. AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ UZR Player A .255 .343 .432 .336 98 -2.6 Player B .260 .347 .410 .335 97 -2.7 Both players were disappointments to their offseason predictions. Both players are...
Back of the Envelope: Mets Shouldn't Bank on Hitter Regress to Improve the Offense
(Click to enlarge) When you ask Sandy Alderson, the Mets new GM, how he can expect the team to improve next year without making significant moves to alter the roster--particularly on offense--his reply has been that many starters are likely to rebound from a down 2010. Certainly his answer is...
Batter Regress Tool Updated with xBABIP and more Players
After some great comments and suggestions I've updated the Batter Regress Tool (original can be found here)--again, best viewed in wide format. The tool now incorporates xBABIP for 2010 and a player's 3-year average for 2007-2009. Additionally, the tool now includes all batters that had >=100...
Batter Bounce-Back (or Fall-Off) Tool
Building on my previous article on the impact of BABIP, K's, and BB's on hitters in 2010, I put together this interactive tool for folks to quickly examine the bounce-back (or fall-off) potential of hitters (best viewed in Wide format. Alternatively, you can view the tool here). The gist of the...
The Impact of Luck, K's, and BB's on Hitters in 2010
I've been helping out a friend that works with Little League players. Part of what we've been doing is trying to better identify the true value of players and what areas each player should be working on. This is difficult given the drastically smaller N you have to work with at that level, but...
Monday Rockpile: Jose Lopez and the Mystery of the Missing BABIP
Let's take a look back at the past 2 weeks of Jose Lopez, as viewed from my perspective. 14 days ago: "Rockies interested in Jose Lopez" Hey, I traded for Jose Lopez in my OOTP league. I also got Brandon League along with him. Then again, I also had to trade away Hammel and Deduno. But hey, Aaron...
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