monday roundup
by lboros on Mar 3, 2008 8:48 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Printa few programming notes before i get started. first, i'm a bit behind on the tournament updates; got one up late last night, will try to have another up this evening. (we're on track --- i think --- to wrap this thing up just before opening day.) second, i still don't have a firm date for the SBN 2.0 migration date. i'll lodge an inquiry today and report back ASAP.
finally, a reader inquired via e-mail recently about the VEB t-shirt design contest. you might recall this idea was floated back in january; i ran a poll, and there was overwhelming support for it. since then, alas, it has slipped down the priority ladder and is now buried on the grab-bag portion of my to-do list --- aka the "will never happen" portion. i should have asked if anybody wanted to volunteer to ride herd on this project. so, belatedly, i'll ask now: if you want to be the t-shirt design contest czar, send me an e-mail and we'll figure out how to get that initiative off the ground.
that takes care of the preliminary bits. onward, then, to the main-course bits.
- i begin with the Hardball Times Season Preview book, my copy of which arrived late last week. THT ran its own set of projections, the second consecutive year they have done this; by and large their numbers agree with the ones coughed up by CHONE, ZIPS, PECOTA, etc etc. THT did something new with the projections this year --- they ran the data through a simulation program and played the season 100 times. that experiment yielded the following finish in nl central:
W L RS RA DIV WC brewers 88 74 826 752 43.0 11.8 cubs 87 75 852 785 35.0 7.0 reds 82 80 833 724 12.5 6.5 cards 78 84 790 830 5.5 0.0 astros 73 89 762 858 4.0 2.0 bucs 70 92 720 837 0.0 0.0 those results are in general agreement with BP's PECOTA-derived team projections (just to clarify, BP's results are generated via a completely different method --- there's no simulation program involved). THT has the cardinals finishing 8th among nl teams in runs scored and 12th in runs allowed (vs 14th- and 9th-place finishes, respectively, in BP's telling). i don't know what simulator THT used, nor how they allocated the cardinals' playing time. because it's a maiden voyage, i trust this exercise less than i will the annual Diamond Mind Blowout, which ought to appear at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog within the next couple of weeks. the bottom-line estimate --- ie, the cards are about 18:1 longshots to make the postseason --- strikes me as a pretty reasonable. in this telling the reds have a 1 in 8 shot to win the central and a 1 in 5 shot to play in october --- if anything, those seem like underestimates to me. i'd give them slightly better odds.
- 'nother Hardball Times item: i'll be writing the annual "5 Questions" article for the website again. i ask of the community: which 5 questions should i ask / answer for that article? take a look at last year's iteration, if'n you're not familiar w/ the trope. it strikes me that 5 questions aren't nearly enough for this year's cardinal team. just off the type o' me head: was ankiel a fluke? is rasmus ready? how much / how well will the injury reclamations be able to pitch this year? will they miss rolen's glove? how bad will the middle infield suck? who leads off? will youngsters trump scrap-heap veterans, or is that just lip service? i could add another 7 questions if i gave it some thought. list your top 5 questions below --- you don't have to answer them, i just want the Qs.
- ted simmons and rick hummel, together again --- just like old times.
- did anybody see dave pinto's article last week about batting the pitcher 8th? i've long been an advocate; wrote about the subject at length 3 years ago at the old site. pinto's article (with input from tom ruane) gibes with mine (with input from james click) and others too numerous to cite; it's fairly certain by now that batting the pitcher 8th adds a few runs over the course of a year, perhaps as much as a full win. i'm glad the idea has got its first copycat; i wouldn't have expected ned yost to be that guy, but i commend him for being willing even to contemplate the idea publicly. it'll be an important crack in the orthodoxy if yost follows through and writes the pitcher 8th on a lineup card--- the idea will be less easily dismissed as an attention-getting ploy by one smarter-than-thou manager, and a little more akin to a trend. c'mon ned --- be brave.
- finally, am i the only one who took note of the last line of derrick goold's postgame entry at Birdland yesterday? after assuring us that st louis has no serious interest in sidney ponson (even though a team scout will watch ponson throw in the near soon), he concludes: "The Cardinals' stance on Ponson and other free agents -- David Wells or Jeff Weaver or Sidd Finch, for that matter -- has not altered. Though the time when they will reconsider their patience is approaching." i wonder what that last sentence means? is goold suggesting there's already a drift toward signing somebody, or merely that an evaluation will occur once clement faces hitters (probably live BP) later this week? my guess is the latter. pineiro's shoulder might factor in here as well; he's due to make his first start friday after missing yesterday's outing with a stiff shoulder. once those returns are in, we may know whether or not to expect a move.
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Note that Pinto mentions that it also helps
TShirts
Could it be...
by Beware the Molinas on Mar 3, 2008 9:22 AM EST reply actions
It could'nt, could it?
by cardschinmusic on Mar 4, 2008 6:18 AM EST up reply actions
My guess is
Whatever Scott Boras is asking for his clients (I'm looking at you, Jeff Weaver) is obviously more than anybody is willing to pay. At what point does a player tell his agent, "Get. Me. A. JOB!!!" I kinda doubt that guys like Weaver and Lohse want to sit out until somebody gets desperate, but teams are playing NOW, and they're NOT!!!
The pitcher probably tells Boras that
So a 50 year old JEff Weaver will be contacting us down the road.
Yeah...
by cardschinmusic on Mar 4, 2008 5:29 AM EST up reply actions
Five questions
Will the average age of the Memphis Redbirds be over or under 30?
Will Jason Isringhausen waive his no trade clause mid-season?
Will Jose Oquendo be the next manager?
Will there be riots in the streets of STL if Sidney Ponson is signed?
Hope that helps.
by That's a Winner on Mar 3, 2008 10:40 AM EST reply actions
5 questions...
- Can Chris Duncan get 500 plate appearances?
- Will Brendan Ryan become a younger, faster version of the 2006 Scott Spiezio?
- Where is Rick Ankiel on the learning curve -- early, middle, or late?
- Will Colby Rasmus make a legit impact on the 2007 Cardinals?
- Which Cardinal minor league pitcher will emerge and contribute?
#5
- seems unlikely mulder, clement, and carpenter will all be pitching effectively in september, so i'd say the development (or not) of the pitching staff in memphis is the biggest question to answer this year. may be kind of out there for where the big team finishes, but it seems this is the single most critical outcome. if the AAA staff doesn't show well, the rest matters little. not just for next year, but probably for how this year finishes out. i don't see the point in ponson, lohse etc. when the predictions for runs scored is so disappointing. to win even this year will require better pitching than those guys can offer, which can only come from the farm, long shot or not.
- second would be how the outfield pans out. so many unanswered questions in terms of ludwick and ankiel (flukes or late bloomers), duncan (healthy and real or??), barton and schumaker (true leadoff potential or just situational, late inning guys).
- not concerned about the MI, it won't be very good offensively no matter what, couple of notches behind the outfield in terms of making a positive impact on runs scored. suspect adequate defensively. only interesting question (or curiosity maybe) is if any of the younger players push kennedy, iz, or miles off the 25 man.
- more directly for this year, how do albert and troy hold up physically.
- will the whole ped thing go away, or will it linger, particularly over the cards, all year. these guys don't need any additional distractions.
Questions
Will the Cardinals score 800 runs?
How many pitchers will start 20 or more games?
When will Rasmus start?
Albert's health?
Izturis? Why?
Good to hear
I really like Goold. He and Hummel are clearly the class of the PD baseball staff. I have found his blog both informative and interesting. I hope they manage to keep him around for awhile.
by redbirdnation8206 on Mar 3, 2008 11:15 AM EST reply actions
My 5 Questions
- How will the middle infield shake out and will there be ANY positive production from that area of the field?
- How will Ankiel do given his new role as an everyday player for the big club?
- What role will Rasmus play with the big boys, and when will this role begin?
- Albert and Carpenter's elbows...'nuf said.
- How will the patchwork-quilt pitching staff do, and who will go on the DL when?
by redbirdnation8206 on Mar 3, 2008 11:19 AM EST reply actions
Potential Questions...
- Is STL's future too dependent on the success of Colby Rasmus?
- Can STL win without production up the middle?
- Was the Carpenter contract a mistake?
- Ryan Franklin - Looper role swap? With Looper's peripherals set to take a huge step back, could rotating relievers into the rotation every other year be successful?
- Should STL focus more on OBP or HRs?
Yost
Haha
Remember back when Kendall was considered a very good player, like the second best catcher in the NL? Back when he used to hit first or second b/c he was pretty fast and got on base well and all that? So much for that.
by redbirdnation8206 on Mar 3, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
redbird and Joker
He is not that bad, look at all the Cardinals lead off options people have been throwing around. Jason Kendall had a better 2007 OBP than any of them and he has a better career OBP than any of them.
I would not call Kendall terrible.
Well, I wouldn't call him terrible, either
His power is utterly gone, he doesn't throw guys out anymore, and his OBP is starting to become tied more and more to his batting average. As a post later in the comment section said, he's very similar offensively to Eckstein.
So no, he's not TERRIBLE, but he's certainly not very good. To be honest, he's approaching backup status in my mind.
by redbirdnation8206 on Mar 3, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
agree
He is an OBP guy only and it's not like he can play another position. I would say he is a good part time player at this stage in his career.
He had on OBP of .362 last year.
Kendall part Robot
He's not terrible, but he sure isn't good.
Well played sir, well played
by redbirdnation8206 on Mar 3, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Not quite
Regardless, he's got anti-power and is basically the really slow version of Eckstein. And not that it matters for lineup construction, but he threw out 5/57 runners with the Cubs; 3 of those were on pickoffs in which he had nothing to do with the play, so he was really 2/54. Yikes.
Because it utilizes the power of crowds. . .
If you were on the "Free John Gall" campaign from a few years ago or you're skeptical of "unproven prospects" -- we need a nice conglomeration of optimists, realists and pessimists so everyone is welcomed.
my five questions
- If relievers can become starters shouldn't the market for "our kind of starters" be deep and cheap?
- What Stl player/manager/coach/executive will next fall victim to public substance abuse misbehavior?
- Is Mo to Stl what Selig is to MLB?
- Do Boras and the Cardinal front office even bother returning each others calls?
Just for fun...
5. What if Miguel Cairo is released by the Mariners on the last day of spring training while on the same day, a Cardinal backup infielder breaks a leg?
WAIT, never mind! Thats not fun! Please, no!!
by cardschinmusic on Mar 4, 2008 5:44 AM EST up reply actions
...or?
5. How long before Simba roars his way off the Milwaukee bench!
Congrats to Ted and the Brewers on this great move, Ned's paying back an old debt!
Ted and Ned will make a good pair and Hummel got to write it up. Have a party!
by cardschinmusic on Mar 4, 2008 6:47 AM EST up reply actions
5 Questions
- Do the Cardinals figure out what they have in the outfield? (i.e. is LaRussa and management committed to youth and picking the best 4 of Duncan, Ankiel, Barton, Ludwick, Skip, JuanGone, and Mather for the future?)
- Does another minor league hitter step up to give the Cardinals some offensive depth in the minors behind Rasmus?
- Who got the better of the challenge trade? (Rolen vs. Glaus)
- Chris Carpenter's rehabilitation?
- Albert's Elbow?
My 5 questions
- Will TLR '08 be his typical self (in terms of too much reliance on low-upside veterans) or, given the obvious limitations of this team, will he adopt the more risk-oriented style he took during the 2006 post-season?
- Will Aaron Miles get another 400 ABs (thus destroying what's left of the mental health of half the VEB readership) or will he be used only in his most useful role, as the 2B against lefties?
- Will Ankiel and Izzy (both always injury-prone) each last a full season? (BTW, if both of them do play full-time, I expect big years from both.)
- Is Reyes really a "new man" or just a slightly trimmer version of his 2007 self?
- Apart from Colby Rasmus, is there any Cardinal prospect who will unexpectedly become a hero for the parent club in 2008?
A gameday link for todays game
5 questions/5 dates
- When does Carpenter come back?
- When does Mulder come back?
- When does Pujols have the surgery?
- When does Rasmus come up?
- [can't think of a fifth]
How about
by That's a Winner on Mar 3, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
I can think of many fifths
Miles at SS today
Probably because Miles needs the ABs
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 3, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Loopers Picture
by RosevilleRedbird on Mar 3, 2008 1:30 PM EST reply actions
LaRue the day...
Man, I'm glad it's still spring training...
Marquis already in Lou's doghouse for 2008...
Excerpt:
"Well, if that's the case, he can go somewhere else," Piniella said. "Win a spot in the rotation, you don't have to worry about it. ... I've got seven starters here for five spots. It's a little bit too early to start talking about what he wants to do or not do."
This oughta be fun to watch!
but for how long...
I'd imagine it won't come back up
Small Bears
Brian Roberts would look much better in red than blue...how good would he look leading off and playing second?........but, he's a talent that we won't get.
The problem in Chicago stems from the 7 starters they have in camp - Z, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Dempster, Marshall and Lieber.
Nice problem to have. Surely the Northsiders will find a way to screw it up.
5 Questions
- What will Ankiel produce?
- What will we get from our injured pitchers (Capr and Mulder?)
- Is it time for Rasmus?
- Will Albert win his annual battle with injuries?
- Is Wainer on his way to being an elite pitcher or is he leveling off at a very nice pitcher?
Rasmus has 13 pitch AB to end the game
Hmmm, I have an idea
Of course I've actually only seen him play once in the Future's Game, but from looking at his stat lines and in that one AB in a meaningless all-star game that I saw: I think it's self evident that he scraps for every play, knows what it takes to win and will come up with the big hit when his team needs it. Oh and he's a natural leader. He oozes intangibles. In fact, his intangibles are so awesome they're practically tangible.
(*note: my original line was "I can practically feel his intangibles"...but that just didn't sound quite right.)
Isn't this how guys get labeled like that? So from now on any time I mention Rasmus, I'm mentioning his clutchiness. It's my goal that he gets labeled as such regardless of the veracity of such.
Careful...
From Cardinal Training Camp: "Mike Gallego makes comeback after brief eleven year hiatus!"
by cardschinmusic on Mar 4, 2008 6:12 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah but Rasmus IS clutch, can't argue with that
i for one, don't buy the projections
i firmly believe this. i have no numbers or stats, nor have i ran any simulated seasons to back up my belief. just call it a gut feeling if you will.
it's going to be a fun season. just you wait & see.
That is the thing about cobbling together a
But anything can happen. There is a small chance Mulder could come back in June and look like the Mulder that played for Oakland, and that Carp could come back at the ASB looking like his old self again.
I hate waiting for guys to come back form the DL
And, right after posting that,
Questions
If 2007 was the abrupt end of the road for the championship run that began in 2004, what is 2008 -- the on ramp to the highway called rebuilding or a time-wasting, pothole-filled detour?
Dave Duncan: Does he have any more of that old black magic left, or did Kip Wells doo-doo on the voodoo?
How many innings can the 2008 starting pitchers log?
This is one questions, just different ways of phrasing it:
Do the Cardinals have a plan?
Are all the key management players in the organization on the same page?
Who's running the place, anyway?
Does Adam Wainwright have a Cy Young season in his future?
Has LaRussa completed the transformation of the Cardinals into a bad Ameican League team?
Hard to resist some question related to Ankiel.
Personal opinion: It's premature to have Colby Rasmus the subject of one of the key questions of the season. Is he really that pivotal for 2008? Seems more appropriate to include his potential role in whatever question you discuss the much-touted youth movement. Just my opinion.
Best question
rotfl
The Rasmus question, I think, is not whether he can save the 2008 season by himself. Even Albert, in his blaze of rookie glory, could not magically make problems disappear.
How management treats Rasmus will show the strategy for development of young talent. Just as, I'm afraid, giving at at bats to Juan Gone and playing Miles at SS shows something very different.
Matt Leach's mailbag
I know it's the type of conversation thrown about on here fairly often, but I thought I'd bring up this article because it gives a good discussion along with specifics that are helpful for some of us that may not be aware of it yet.
The most depressing thing about today's ST game...
One walk? In an early spring training game, where pitchers tend to not have their control?
Okay, it's only one game, but I would love to have a batting coach that emphasises the importance of getting on base (manager, too, for that matter).
Also, why isn't Rasmus playing more in spring games? Yesterday he had 1 PA, today he had 1 PA. Is this Tony's way of punishing him because he went 0 for 3 (with a walk) the day before that? Or is he hurt?
per mlbrtraderumors .com
Just hosting him officially
5 questions
#2- Albert's elbow: if the season goes south, does he opt for surgery to be ready for 2009?
#3- is Mulder through?
#4- is Ankiel for real as a position player?
#5- who will look solid for 2009: Carpenter? Reyes? Piniero? Clement?
by vinniefromjersey on Mar 3, 2008 8:01 PM EST reply actions
How about Noah Lowry's line for the Giants
IP H R ER BB SO HR
1 0 4 4 9 0 0
The AP recap says he threw 24 pitches before a Texas batter even swung.
Off subject,
Ha! I beat you by two minutes!
*Full disclosure - I have no idea if Alex is in fact either dirty or a hippie.
by BTown Birds fan on Mar 3, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
Tried to be a bit different
- Is Tony LaRussa the right man for the job? This is going to be a not so easy season - new clubhouse leadership, new skill sets, new players.
- What's the job - retool, refit, or rebuild? Still haven't figured that one out yet, have we management?
- Farm system: Are we seeing what's there, or are we seeing what we want to see. By that, I mean are we projecting our hopes instead of realizing that it's really not that good yet. Have we turned a corner is another way of saying it.
- Don't care so much about leadoff - but what about the #2 hole? That's the best position in the lineup (hitting in front of AP) - who hits there? Need production and OBP to make AP, Glaus, and #5 see better pitches. Do we have it?
- Is the pitching coach capable of pulling a jackrabbit out of the 2008 hat in terms of a starting pitcher?
- Bonus: If we're between 5 and 10 games out at the deadline, do we make a deal or do we go with what we've got. To me, that's the best case scenario for this team - and a real question that may come up.
- Bonus #2: Does Mo read his interviews? :)
Other people's 5 questions are excellent
- Is the franchise finally ready to start treating Memphis as the finishing school for young players rather than as the spare-parts junk yard for old ones?
- Is Looper's considerably increased work load in 2007 going to hurt him in 2008?
- Will anyone on this team steal as many as 10 bases?
- Who's the designated 2008 resident of TLR's doghouse?
- Will Mo find a way to translate the glut of major-league-average-or-better outfielders into trades that fill the sucking holes at 2B, SS and starting pitcher?
my question
Who's really running this thing?
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