about Pineiro.  It deals w/ LaRussa's concern about the cleanup spot.  LaRussa originally had Glaus in mind for the cleanup spot -- a rational thought considering Glaus' power and the likelihood that he would be able to continue it this year -- but that he's now considering Rick Ankiel.  Ankiel, of course, has a grand total of 190 PA's as a major-league OF and a career OBP of .328.  Glaus' career OBP is .358 but apparently Tony is turned off by his career .238 batting average hitting in the 4th spot.  Glaus is a career .259 hitter batting 5th.

Now I realize that Glaus has a ton of major-league PA's and that we're not dealing w/ small sample sizes here, but does Tony really believe that Glaus, upon seeing his name written next to the #4 on the lineup card, is overcome w/ anxiety that ultimately keeps him from being a good major-league hitter?  Or that he so loves the #5 that he becomes a significantly better hitter when batting w/o the pressure of hitting immediately behind the great Albert Pujols?

There are reasons to split up Pujols and Glaus -- namely, to put a lefty in between them to balance them out and to split up the 2 best power hitters so as to make the most of Glaus' power.  A career .238 average in the 4 hole isn't one of them.  He's got a career 1.088 OPS hitting 2nd but apparently Tony's not considering that.  

Moreover, maybe Ankiel is going to become such a good hitter that he needs to be hitting higher in the order but giving more PA's to a guy whose career OBP is 30 pts. lower than the guy batting behind him runs counter to the idea of batting the pitcher 8th -- that is, to score as many runs as possible.

Today's Lineup per Bird Land: http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/bird-land/bird-land/2008/03/lineup-311-impromptu-doubleheader/

   1. Skip Schumaker, LF
   2. Cesar Izturis, SS
   3. Colby Rasmus, CF
   4. Rick Ankiel, RF
   5. D'Angelo Jimenez, 3B
   6. Chris Duncan, 1B
   7. Yadier Molina, C
   8. Todd Wellemeyer, RHP
   9. Adam Kennedy, 2B

This is very intersting, considering the LR match ups, LSLLSLRRL that is a VERY left handed lineup.  Also there is an intrasquad game today, Minor Leaguers in the field, Miles batting 3rd, Parisi vs Thompson on the mound.

Com'on LB, give the guy some credit for trying something "new".

I've seen Athletics Nation and it's gonna be great!!! I suspect that most people here will love it...Glad that we Cardinal fans have some "pull" within SB Nation to get our site on the fast track to upgrade!!!

Well done witht the hardball times article, Larry.  I like how you managed to squeeze many questions out of the five that were alloted.  

i sure am curious to see who's the wheat and who's the chaff over the next three weeks.  heck, during the whole season for that matter.

You articulated the state of the franchise as well as anything I've read this Spring.

Well done.

(although technically the last half century would have to include the back to back losing seasons in 1958 and 1959 - sorry to nitpick, but facts are facts)

On whether the poll numbers would be as skewed if it asked whether we preferred mostly nude swimsuit models or chippendales.

Runners on 1st and 2nd 1 out, Ankiel Ks
Basesloaded 2 out, Duncan Ks
No runs score.  Man that hurts to see.  Hope they get better at driving in runs in those situations.  Well Duncan needs to start hitting the ball a .077 average won't cut it.

In my opinion, best-case scenario for the Cards is only 4-5 wins more than that.

of DeWitt et al  and their Marie Antoinette-like attitude(let them eat cake) toward the fanbase. Just because you have more money than me doesn't make you better or smarter than me; it just makes you richer.  I've always loathed, and held in contempt, people who feel the need to talk down to others, or who treat people as if our society was a true caste system. And that's the way ownership has treated us, as fans, for several years now. We are not stupid; we can see what's happening. And that's what irks me the most, I guess. It's almost as if they're saying "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. We(ownership) are the great and powerful Oz!"  

heh.

that is all.

I remember a while back seeing a website where you could plug in players and their OBP's (OPS's?) and it would generate best lineups for you. I just kinda want to play around on it. Does anyone know that site? I've been trying to find it on google, but nothing's coming up. Thanks.

This insanity needs to stop.

That 4 pitch inning probably didn't get alot of work in.

Ramirez this off-season.  He's been a total bust in the White Sox camp.

NOT!</borat>

between pitches without us making contact with the ball or it getting past the catcher?

What is that called?  Is this something new Tony invented where we take a base without putting the ball in play?

Seems awful risky to me.

Oh, the Humanity!  

By the way, this is a bad offense.  I know its ST and all, but I'm starting to get really worried.  

Thank you for your Hardball Times piece, Larry. It's an excellent read.  I disagree with the dismal projections many are making for the Cardinals though. Those projections seem to be based on analyses with two gaps - an underestimation of the importance of certain patterns and trends in skill development and the impact of injuries.

For example, I'd bet that Chris Duncan (recovered from the hernia that hindered him the second half of last season) will perform much better this year than PECOTA and others predict, just as it was predictable that Mark Mulder would underperform with the Cardinals after his performance took a serious dive his last few months with Oakland.  Performance patterns over time are anything but linear when injuries interfere.  

Learning and growth curves aren't linear either.  They generally accelerate at some points and flatten out at other points.  In some cases they make quantum leaps.  For example, a mediocre pitcher suddenly becomes a future Hall of Famer by adding a new pitch (Bruce Sutter); or a potentially excellent hitter makes a leap in performance by starting to hit line drives to all fields rather than continuing the habit of upper cutting and pulling the ball (many examples); or a hitter with almost no power adopts the strategy of hitting line drives rather than putting the ball into the air and thus makes enough improvement in his ability to get on base to become another future Hall of Famer (Ozzie Smith, who turned into a respectable hitter and later a very solid contact hitter with the Cardinals, immediately after three years of pathetic hitting performance with the Padres .211 BA/.260 OBP, .230 BA/.313 OBP, and .222 BA/.294 OBP).

Players who I believe will outperform the linear predictions for them from PECOTA and the like include

Chris Duncan.  He was hindered by a hernia the second half last year.

Rick Ankiel.  His hitting dived after the HGH report last year.

Adam Kennedy.  It is predictable that he will benefit from positive regression to the mean, alone.  He was also hindered last year by an ailing knee.  Kennedy had 3 HR in 65 AB after the All-Star break, 0 HR in 214 AB before the ASB.

Cesar Izturis.  His pattern of career performance is anything but linear.  His hitting was extremely weak his first two years (though not as bad as Ozzie Smith's first four years); Cesar's excellent glove got him to MLB before he had developed sufficiently as a hitter.  Then he suddenly became a respectable hitter in his third full ML season.  His hitting was excellent in his fourth season over the first 200 AB's; then he began suffering from a series of ailments and his hitting took a deep dive.  Then his hitting was very weak again when he returned to a series of irregular, part-time roles that may have prevented him from getting his timing and confidence back.  Despite his impotent hitting in his first 22 AB's (only 2 hits), it remains to be seen how Cesar will respond to regular AB's again.  He may completely flop as a hitter, but it's too early to judge.

Adam Wainwright.  His performance last year showed a major improvement in the second half.  He adjusted to the league much more effectively than the league adjusted to him.  A linear projection based on his overall performance last year misses the quantum improvement in his performance after he made some key adjustments at the end of May last year.

Joel Pineiro.  His sudden improvement in pitching performance after he joined the Cardinals can be attributed to a shift in his delivery that prevents him from tipping his pitches and a shift in his approach to pitching, under Dave Duncan's coaching.  It is predictable that Pineiro will perform better this year than he has in the last few years.

There is one important player who can be reasonably expected to underperform, compared with the projections:

Braden Looper.  He was awful after April last year.  He was awful right to the last month of the season.  Looper does not belong in the rotation.  Thompson, Wellemeyer, Reyes, even one of the AAA prospects would be a much better choice.

The bottom line?  I'm betting that the Cardinals will play .500 ball this year.  (And I agree with you and others that I'd like to see them go all out in rebuilding this year, rather than pretending they can outrun the Cubs and Brewers or, possibly, even the Reds.)

full job description with the Yankees off-hand.  That's a pretty nice talent you've got there, John!

AVG up to .185, higher then Izturis and Duncan.  .500 so far today.

and hopefully Jimenez K'd himself over to minor league camp today...

Gotta give credit where credit is due... he's up to 296 now.  I haven't seen a SP game yet so I'm not sure how "quality" his hits actually are though.

Anybody know what's happened after the AK single?

bases loaded no outs and we can't bring home the winning run.

Extras today or a tie?

Good to see.

Pinch hit Albert and let's go home : )

nice job of leaving alot of men on base today.  Sounds like 2006 and 2007 all over again.

26 LOB

Look at Gordo's story today on Skippy.  He makes the case that Skip has excelled at every level he has played based on his batting average.

Not only that, but he doesn't even make that compelling of a case.

Post-Dispatch makes it appear that the Cardinals have made inquires about Kyle Lohse but then doesn't really explain that statement with any quotes or any discussion about him.