community projection: anthony reyes
Update [2008-2-26 17:21:33 by lboros]: colby rasmus homered today in the intrasquad game.
[/update]
we haven't done one of these in a while --- and with anthony reyes getting some notice in the press yesterday and starting the first game of spring training on thursday, he seems like a fit subject. reyes was a fiercely debated figure here at VEB last season --- some of us saw a guy with no out pitch, no command, and no clue; others saw a pitcher with great potential who looked unhittable at times but didn't trust his stuff in tight situations and suffered from a general lack of consistency. i'd like to avoid rehashing that debate if at all possible; all the arguments have been made ad nauseum, and there's nothing to add. the proof will be in the putting.
the fact that reyes still has a chance to settle this debate on the field --- in a st louis uniform, anyway --- comes as a rather big surprise. give credit to mozeliak for not tossing the kid away for scraps. for all his struggles last season, reyes is still a sought-after commodity --- a cost-controlled starting pitcher. if he can settle into league-averageness, that's a big addition to the organization's talent base. the other day matt leach referred to reyes as the most pivotal player on the roster; i agree with that. i don't necessarily think he will make that big a difference in the 2008 standings, but if reyes can get his feet underneath him this year the team might actually have a surplus of pitching heading into 2009. that's what i'm rooting for.
the glowing reports on him from the other day are nice, but they don't particularly excite me. reyes looked great in jupiter last year, too --- he was playing the 2-seam and 4-seam off each other, throwing strikes consistently, and impressing all observers. in 5 grapefruit league starts last spring, he went 3-0 with a 2.70 era and 0.95 whip. as long as he performs well enough to secure his spot in the rotation, i'll be satisfied.
i need your projections in these 8 categories:
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serious fantasy leaguers: ryan van bibber, the blogger at Cardinals Diaspora and SB Nation's own Turf Show Times, participates in a sabr-centric keeper league that has a few openings. the league incorporates stats like RAA and ISO --- if you don't know what those are, this is not the league for you. but if you can hack that level of stattiness and are looking for some challenging competition, get in touch with ryan at rv_vanbib AT yahoo DOT com.
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Come back season
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,W,L,ERA
28,170,160,60,120,10,12,4.25
That should work out to a 1.29 WHIP, 3.17BB/9IP and 6.35K/9IP which is a slight upgrade from last season, the ERA is the biggest improvement which I expect to come from him controlling runners on situations better. Add in more run support and I think the record is also very realistic, and could be better but I couldn't bring myself to predict him with a winning record after last year.
O/T
i never knew that came from don quixote
Great
by That's a Winner on Feb 26, 2008 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
Proceed with caution:
Comes a horseman wild and free
Tilting at the windmills passing
Who can the brave young horseman be"
Now GLightfoot will REALLY be stuck playing in your head all day, but you can't say that I didn't warn you.
by cardsgirl95 on Feb 26, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Damm it
He is strong but he is weak
He is cruel but he is gentle
He is wise but he is meek"
This is not helping.
by That's a Winner on Feb 26, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
That is one of the least interesting books ever
That is an ambitious pursuit.
by cardsgirl95 on Feb 26, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
I got the book for Christmas
So no. It will probably take me quite a while but I'm determined to do it.
A less ambitious pursuit:
The American Film Institute has issued a top 100 list of their own, and one of my goals over the next couple years is to see everything on that list.
I have a read a whopping
I'm slightly ashamed
I know that tops your 9, but here's the aspect of shame: I'm an H.S. English teacher....
Is Don Quixote really #1 on the list? I appreciate Quixote, and I agree it merits a relatively high spot on the list, but #1 seems kinda crazy.
Then again, as I think of most of the literature that would top it, it's either a play or an epic poem.
Quixote
I have read 13...
oh come on. quixote is laugh out loud hilarious.
it's long, but it's funny.
just get yourself to The Brothers Karamozov and Ulysses. you'll be covered.
What do you click to get the actual list?
yeah
by bigcardsfan5 on Feb 26, 2008 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
thank you azru for the list
I'm in pretty good shape.
Confessions
I am a former English Lit major.
I've felt guilty after being humbled by a list like this in the past and read several of those books after deciding to tackle said list...then lost my way.
I own 6 more of those books that I haven't read, and have owned them all more than 2 years!
There's just so much to read, I'm so easily distracted. I usually have a modern fiction book, some financial books, a baseball book, a classic fiction book and several magazines going at the same time. Whichever mood I'm in dictates which I pick up.
Favorite authors: Tom Robbins, Kurt Vonnegut, Norman Mailer and John Irving...been kinda a rough year for my authors.
Damn, I'm illiterate
by thisgirllovesbaseball on Feb 27, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Crawling to a #3
GS,IP H BB SO W L ERA
32,188.3,199,63,129,11,10,4.40
1.39 WHIP
3.39 BB/9
6.84 K/9
A-Rey
28,175,150,75,155,16,10,3.98
this is my very optomestic projection!
Reyes
Reyes
22,120,145,45,80,6,10,4.65
Control is the key
Last year's version of Reyes had no control on his pitches, and the key to his success will be to do exactly that. I have the feeling that he'll be able to improve greatly, but not yet to be a star.
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,W,L,ERA
30, 186, 178, 58, 155, 12, 8, 4.08
GO CARDS!!!
The man with the ironed hat
Not sold on the bounce back. I'd rather start him in AAA and hope he does anything usefull to help his trade value. But I know with the sad state of our starters he will get a chance, even with a so so spring. I hope I'm wrong but I think he could kill any trade value he has before the all-star break.
by That's a Winner on Feb 26, 2008 9:41 AM EST reply actions
This isn't going to be pretty...
Huh.
29,174,155,64,135,7,11,4.89
Boy becomes man
29,165,165,64,142,10,5,4.21
Geez, that just obliterates my quota of wishful thinking for the year.
Reyes projection
25,140,135,47,85,9,10,4.45
There ya go!
Card fan in SWIN
by SWIN on Feb 26, 2008 9:59 AM EST reply actions
Reyes of light?
by Beware the Molinas on Feb 26, 2008 10:12 AM EST reply actions
I think he figures it out
by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Feb 26, 2008 10:14 AM EST reply actions
ARey
I am actually rather optimistic. He is too good to be this bad.
Reyes
28,168,160,46,140,12,10,4.50
by Silent George on Feb 26, 2008 10:58 AM EST reply actions
Reyes
by kodiakduncs on Feb 26, 2008 11:10 AM EST reply actions
BEND THE BILL
19,110,107,34,80,6,8,4.88
In photos
The hat
by the red baron on Feb 26, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, unfortunately by
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 26, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
High Socks
That and better pitching.
28,169,174,69,121,11,7,4.30
Reyes projection
24,147,147,52,121,8,7,4.16
flat bill no more...
30,180,139,50,160,12,10,3.89
Anthony
The best surprise of the year.
Subject:
20,120,128,40,90,8,8,4.75
by Just Rope Ball on Feb 26, 2008 12:57 PM EST reply actions
hmmmmmmmmm
25,150,127,34,123,10,8,4.34
i believe reyes will be the first to go down to AAA once clement, mulder or carp gets back, granted i think one of them will go to the bullpen when they're called up from the DL like what the cards did with morris years ago.
Bullish
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,W,L,ERA
31,186,180,66,150,15,9,3.99
I'd be happy
Feelin' Reyes
Proj:
GS IP H BB SO W L ERA
27|168|154|62|167|14|5|3.85
Will Leitch signed my "God Save The Fan" book:
"Have faith in Reyes"
That's gotta count for something.
hardest one yet
I'm going for the middle ground -- enough improvement that LaDunc feels comfortable with him out there but not enough that he avoids a trip or two down to Memphis.
18,106,103,36,84,6,7,4.48
Reyes
23,135,130,55,94,13,6,4.52
Reyes comeback
24,144,132,53,122,12,7,3.92
by joedick on Feb 26, 2008 2:26 PM EST reply actions
ar
i'm done betting on him.
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,W,L,ERA
19,119,111,41,100,7,7,4.8
here's to hoping i'm wrong.
Bend that frigin bill - please
In addition I predict that Anthony will in fact "bend that frigin bill" and this event alone will mark the beginning of an impressive turn-around. I see this happening somewhere around late May to early June..
by TenRingsAndCounting on Feb 26, 2008 3:02 PM EST reply actions
Not too bad, not too great for me:
15,100,90,45,95,4,6,4.95
My gut says he won't be in the rotation for the full season. I don't have any logical reason why not really, I just don't feel it. However, when he does pitch, I figure he'll do ok. I think his problems are mechanical, probably caused by confidence issues. Hopefully he kicks ass this spring and puts it all behind him.
by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 26, 2008 3:14 PM EST reply actions
Barton's Knee Barks
"JUPITER, Fla. -- Cardinals outfielder Brian Barton left the spring training facility Tuesday morning to have his right knee checked out after experiencing soreness in the joint for several days.
Manager Tony La Russa said the Rule 5 pick has felt "restricted."
Barton had surgery on the knee after last season to repair a chronic clicking and discomfort in the joint. The surgery, as described in an earlier blog entry, was what Barton called "lateral release", which is a procedure that stops the patella from rubbing against the femur. Barton said he also had some cartilage damage in the knee and that a bone bruise or small fracture had developed."
Ugh. I knew Barton had microfracture surgery on the knee joint (I'm pretty sure about this), but we hadn't heard about the "lateral release." I hate this surgery. It completely changes the mechanics of the patellofemoral complex. Microfracture surgery is serious shit in and of itself.
This has me very concerned about his short- and long-term prospects.
Bob-
It was all a little confusing to me; my knowledge of these types of matters is pretty limited. It wasn't long ago, so I'm sure you could track down the entry over at BL. I'm sure you would have better luck sorting it all out than I did.
by the red baron on Feb 26, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
David Wells' agent contacts the Cardinals
yesterdays news
I'll guess
Except it will be with the Phillies.
news from derrick goold
"Colby Rasmus hit a home run in the coach-pitch game. ... I would love to have info up on the game and some other tidbits, but the blogs are down. Forums, too. So Brendan Ryan had two nice defensive plays, according to MLB.com's Matthew Leach. Rasmus cracked the homer. And the game ended with Amaury Marti tracking down a fly ball at the wall, a fly ball hit by Nick Stavinoha that would have tied the game, but the wind says no."
thanks to derrick for the info.
thanks
Is there hope for him being the RH bat off the bench to get 200 AB's? Just curious. Thanks.
i'm not an expert
i've never seen him play, so my opinion of his skills isn't worth a whole lot. he's got good stats, and some observers think he can really hit. but even if he can, i still don't see how he's a fit for this organization at this time. if they're trying to build up the talent base for the long-term --- that's the team's self-stated goal, and it's an appropriate goal --- then it seems counterproductive to consider way-past-30 guys like marti and juan gonzalez for bench roles. old guys can have value to contending teams that need short-term help. the cards need long-term help. those opportunities should go to younger players who might have some long-term value.
RH off the bench--
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 26, 2008 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
The Former Ironed-Bill Boy
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,W,L,ERA
32,173,162,61,127,10,10,5.25
stlfan
reyes
Reyes's hat
optimistic
22,133,132,38,99,8,8,4.66
AR is the next AW
30,170,180,50,100,14,10,3.90
i'm very optimistic about AR coming through this season. the Cardinals will play in october, somebody has to win the games, right?
Reyes '08
GS IP H BB SO W L ERA
28, 180, 170, 70, 165, 15, 9, 3.80
by olabner on Feb 26, 2008 7:20 PM EST reply actions
A power pitcher
Are we talking
my point is
It seems that when Duncan and LaRussa try to change young Anthony's game, his game suffers. Reyes gets sent down when he pitches Duncan's game and gets pounded or when he pitches his game and is seen as head-strong and uncoachable.
LaRussa and Duncan seem to have a cookie cutter approach to how they want their staff to perform. Problem is, the cookie cutter approach does not take into account that Reyes is Reyes, and no one else.
Remember 2004? Our one power pitcher gets injured, and we get to the World Series with four contact pitchers on the roster, and promptly get shelled.
Fast forward to 2006. Reyes pitches his game in Game 1. Carpenter, Suppan, and Weaver pitch their games, and we win in 5.
I will always believe that the Red Sox knew exactly what to look for in 2004 because they faced the same pitcher every night, for all intents and purposes. It may not have cost us the championship, but that series was over before it began.
Let Reyes pitch his game.
by olabner on Feb 27, 2008 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
Matheny should add his prediction here
"You're going to have a big year," Matheny said, clasping hands with this Cardinal. "You watch. You'll see."
The Cardinal on the other end of the handshake -- Anthony Reyes.
"There is no reason he won't have success," Matheny explained when asked about what prompted that glowing farewell. "Sometimes you just need that new face, new voice to encourage you. I've watched him. This kid can throw. He's just had a rough go of it, and sometimes you can't explain that. Most guys go through it at some point. ... He made mistakes and people capitalized on them every time. Your confidence gets down and you try to reinvent the wheel. I think he's through it and he's learned his lesson and he'll be a better pticher for it."
projection
18,120,110,45,90,9,8,4.85
Hoo boy, do I hope I'm wrong with this...
11,52,62,18,33,2,6,5.44
And then blooey, down to Memphis he goes, never to return in a Cardinals uniform. I just have a baaaad feeling about this.
I have come o'er moor and mountain
Like a hawk upon the wing
I was once a shining knight
Who was the guardian of a king
New Beginnings:
by chicagocardfan on Feb 26, 2008 11:12 PM EST reply actions
His bad luck won't continue...
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,W,L,ERA
24,151.3,145,60,115,7,10,4.81
If he bends the bill.....
With a flat bill, it's more like this....
10,55,57,23,52,0,6,6.01
Then it's back to Memphis.... Please bend the bill.
here goes nothing
20,128,40,18,80,10,8,4.24
Problems with format
27,138,140,48,106,8,9,4.76 is correct
28, 180, 170, 70, 165, 15, 9, 3.80 is not
27|168|154|62|167|14|5|3.85 is not either
This is not a small request either. From what I understand LB is adding these to a text file by copy and paste, then adding them to Excel or some database which uses Commas as the delimiter between data sets. Thus anything other then the correct format either creates LOTS of extra work for him or breaks the file. Please do your part in following his directions.



















