A Spring Training Primer
With pitchers and catchers reporting, it's finally time to start talking about what's going to happen on the field rather than dealing w/ all the BS off the field - and, make no mistake, this offseason there was A LOT of Cardinal BS off the field. But spring is in the air (at least in Florida), there are lots of Cardinals wearing offensive-lineman or tight-end numbers, and, as of now, the Cardinals are tied for first place. I say that now I'm looking forward to seeing the games; we'll see if I still feel that way in August.
In any case, what should we be looking for as we try and follow the Cards' spring? Games begin next Wednesday (the 27th) against St. Louis U. and then the Cards play their first true Grapefruit League game against the vaunted Mets the next day. So what should we be watching for?
First, as most if not all of you know, stats mean very little. Someone will break out and have a lot of homers but they'll be hitting against some pitchers who wear #74 or something on the backs of their uniforms and so it won't mean a lot. Just b/c someone other than Pujols, Ankiel, Duncan, or Glaus leads the team in homers this spring doesn't mean he's the next great thing. PA's are parceled out judiciously and the level of competition isn't equal among all hitters. The bottom line is that a good spring by someone like Jarrett Hoffpauir or Joe Mather doesn't mean that they aren't headed for Memphis.
That said, there are some competitions we should be watching closely. But we'll do that AFTER we pay attention to #2 - Albert's elbow.
The p-d has a story up today about Albert's strained elbow ligament. He's going to be treated gingerly this spring and this story will be one to watch all season long. From the p-d, "Pujols, in consultation with team doctors, decided to try a nonsurgical approach." Needless to say, our hopes of watching halfway entertaining games after the All-Star break is dependent on Albert's elbow NOT blowing out. I'll be honest here - I don't have the foggiest idea what to make of this whole story. I'm not a doctor and don't understand the severity of this but I do know that if it blows out, we'll lose Albert for a long damned time! Surgery was an option this offseason and they decided to go the other route. I hope it works. I won't say "I told you so" if it doesn't b/c I didn't but, let's be honest - the team's chances of competing in 2009 may depend on this elbow. So this isn't just the story of the spring, it's the story of the summer and early fall as well. I'll be nervous every time he airs one out to Glaus or Molina.
The next thing to keep your eyes on is the middle infield situation. We've got about a hundred guys in camp who all have shots to play for the Cards in '08. The starters appear to be Adam Kennedy and Cesar Izturis but I don't think it's at all clear that these guys will play well enough to even start the year, much less end the year, as the starters. Still, they've gotta be the favorites. We all know by now that Kennedy stunk up the joint last year and then became Tony's first choice to replace Scott Rolen in the doghouse by failing to show for the winter warm-up. If he stinks again this year, will the Cards decide to keep him around? He's one player who needs to have a good spring if he wants to hold off the other players who are lurking.
Izturis was signed to be the Cards starting SS among much consternation in Cardinal nation. It's not like there were several better options and he can possibly make a halfway decent platoon w/ Brendan Ryan but there's also a pretty good chance that, despite the fact that he just turned 28, his "best" days may be behind him. How much of an opportunity will Ryan get to compete for the job in the spring? How much work will Aaron Miles get at SS? This could be telling b/c he was beyond horrendous defensively last year at short and this could tell us what Tony's plans are for VEB's favorite middle infielder this season.
The Cards also have D'Angelo Jimenez in on a minor-league contract and Jarrett Hoffpauir as part of the 40-man roster. Jimenez isn't great, but it's not like The Wizard is his competition at SS or Tommy Herr at 2B either! I really like Hoffpauir, as I've indicated before, and think he could have a future at the keystone so it'll be interesting to see if he gets any PA's at all against real pitchers (and, of course, how he does against them!). A lot of bodies lurking on either side of second base this spring, none of whom are all that good. It'll be worth watching to see who gets the PA's and when. Will Tony stick w/ Izturis even if he isn't hitting? What about Kennedy? Is Ryan the second option at SS or is it Miles or even Jimenez? We could really get a pretty decent idea if Ryan will ever get a chance to play in St. Louis by watching this cast of thousands.
In the OF, we all know who to keep an eye on - it's Colby Rasmus of course. He's the CF of the future. The only question is - Is the future March 31 or sometime later? He'll only begin the season with the team if he earns it this spring so he's definitely one to watch. We'll get a sense of what Tony's thoughts are re: Rasmus toward the end of the spring as he's putting his everyday roster together.
The CF situation will help to determine RF as well. Presumably, if Rasmus makes it, Ankiel begins the year as the RF. If he doesn't, Ankiel in all likelihood becomes the opening day CF. Who, then plays RF? Can Joe Mather earn a spot w/ a great spring? What about Rule V draftee Brian Barton? He should get every chance to make the team or else he has to be returned to the Indians. Might Ryan Ludwick become a quasi-everyday player? Duncan and Ankiel figure to be the regulars at 2 of the 3 spots. Who the third is depends on Rasmus and Tony's willingness to turn the keys over to the 21 year old. If Rasmus turns out not to be ready, that figures to open a spot for Mather or Barton. Are Skip Schumaker's days numbered? With all the lefties in the OF, he should be behind both Barton and Mather but we'll just have to wait and see how this plays out.
In the rotation, Anthony Reyes inexplicably has one more shot to earn a spot until Mulder returns from the DL. I can't believe he's still with us (through trade or assassination by LaRussa) but he is and he's not a good candidate for the pen. Therefore, it's the rotation or bust (and by "bust" I mean "bus trips" from Memphis to New Orleans!). Maybe it'll finally work out. It's not like we have great options like Sidney Ponson from which to choose! But we do have Todd Wellemeyer - a guy w/ a good arm who's probably a better fit for the pen but who'll likely be the de-facto 5th starter if Reyes falters. Watching how LaRussa uses Reyes and Wellemeyer will give us a good idea what he's thinking as this is one area where stats may not tell us everything. Watch when they pitch and which batters they're pitching to. On the other hand, it's possible that Blake Hawksworth, Mike Parisi, or Mitch Boggs pitches well enough to take the spot if Reyes doesn't earn it. There have even been whispers of Tyler Johnson getting a shot to start! And don't forget Brad Thompson. Again, it's not like they've got Ponson-like competition!
The pen figures to be interesting as well. Watch to see how people like Chris Perez and Jason Motte are used. Might Parisi or Boggs earn some time in the pen? Is Josh Kinney healthy and when will he be ready? Mark Worrell and Kyle McClellan will be in camp trying to earn spots in the pen as well. It's likely someone will surprise and take one of the (warning - hyperbole alert!) 17 or so roster spots that Tony decides to use on the pen this summer.
I'm not sure there were this many interesting young players in camp last spring - at least not w/ real shots to play. If nothing else, the Cards have started to get younger. That youth should add something exciting, at least from our vantage point, to the spring.
0 recs |
55 comments
Comments
Pu's elbow- Roto world comentary
The Cardinals plan to be cautious with Albert Pujols' balky elbow this spring, keeping a close eye on how hard he throws the ball.
"We'll definitely monitor it," Manager Tony La Russa said Saturday. "Talking to the trainers this morning one of the biggest issues will be throwing so we'll be on the careful side of really firing it. He could make a swing that could tweak it, too. It's one of those deals." Pujols said it didn't make sense to have a procedure to clean up the elbow, because the problem is related to the ligament. "If it blows out it's going to blow out," said a blase sounding Pujols. His owners, risking a mid first round pick on him, can't afford to be that blase. Feb. 16 - 3:59 pm et
Could someone please explain the mid first round pick comment?
by Zubin on Feb 17, 2008 2:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fantasy pick,
Next question:
Why do they call 2B the keystone?
by Alxfritz on Feb 17, 2008 3:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
...good question...
2nd base represents the middle of the arch looking from HP, the center stone in an arch is called the keystone.
Ive wondered if it has something to do with with "turning" double plays since the classic DP usually starts at second and turns from left to right on the field, the way a lock opens?
Mather is big question mark for me, I have no ideas on where he goes from here. Does he start in Memphis no matter how well he hits this spring? Would TLR give him a shot at 1st if Pujols goes down or is Phelps automatic even if Mather is outhitting Phelps at AAA? Speizio seems to be the other choice given La Russa's dim view on Duncan getting a chance there if needed.
by cardschinmusic on Feb 17, 2008 5:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
only a MID-first-round pick on el albert ????
by lboros on Feb 17, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Leagues
by Alxfritz on Feb 17, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
silly me
by lboros on Feb 17, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Players to Draft Ahead of Pujols...
- A-Rod
- Johan Santana
- Jake Peavy
- C.C. Sabathia
- Chase Utley
by fourstick on Feb 19, 2008 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and
by Hinkster on Feb 17, 2008 8:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
WAY "back in the day"...
With the advent of athletic "giants" such as the 6' 10" George Mikan, the three-second "lane" was widened to 9 1/2 feet; the better to keep the "big" men further away from the basket. The lane's remained that width to this day in high-school and NCAA ball... the NBA has a wider lane, while international basketball uses a trapezoidal lane that's wider at the baseline than at the free-throw line.
Basketball broadcasters (like me!) still use the phrase "top of the key" as a quick shorthand for "he's standing directly in front of the basket, about 20 feet away"... even though there are no jump balls at the free-throw line anymore (high school and college), half of the "jump ball" circle is still painted on the court. Now, it's a handy guide for the (amateur) three-point line.
In a similar fashion, the wide mark closest to the basket on each side of the lane (marking where rebounders must stand during a free throw) is known as "the block".
We now return you to the sport where the bases are still where they were in the 1800's... <grin!>
by The Ol Goaler on Feb 17, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
by fourstick on Feb 19, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still don't understand the comment
by ridgesee on Feb 17, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rotoworld is a fantasy news site
It is interesting to me that AP has dropped to a mid-first round pick. I believe up until last year it was toss up between he and ARod for #1 pick overall. I suppose that is the result of one "down" year.
by OCCardsFan on Feb 17, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, I get it now
by ridgesee on Feb 17, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great!
by cardschinmusic on Feb 17, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I always assumed
In basketball, didn't the lane used to be trapezoid-shaped -- i.e., wider at the bottom than at the top? Maybe it still is in European play; I forget. So upside down it looks just like the keystone in an arch.
by jfs on Feb 17, 2008 8:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree..
by cardschinmusic on Feb 17, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols' Elbow
The season's lost as is.
The longer you put it off, the greater the chance of ruining next year, too.
by thepainguy on Feb 17, 2008 9:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
by vinniefromjersey on Feb 17, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Get outta here
by Jhusk on Feb 17, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe
by erik on Feb 17, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he didn't mean
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 17, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think thats the spirit..
by cardschinmusic on Feb 17, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This spring...
While PECOTA is generally an accurate "predictor" of performance, it's my opinion that the Cardinals are a particularly difficult team to "predict" statistically this year.
Nobody knows who's gonna receive the majority of the at-bats for the Birds at all three outfield positions; at 2B, and at SS! (It's safe to assume "full-season" ABs for Duncan and Ankiel; after that, it's a crapshoot...)
And nobody knows how many starts each Cardinal pitcher's going to make... I think PECOTA gives Wainwright too few starts and innings, based upon the fact that he was in the bullpen in '06. That was Wainer's only year in the 'pen... he'd been a starter throughout his minor-league career.
"Major League Equivalents" sometimes pan out, sometimes not! Duncan's been a better hitter in The Show than his minor league "numbers" would have predicted.
I refuse to be any gloomier than I have to be in February!
by The Ol Goaler on Feb 17, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
i agree
I would also argue that a key to this season is not that Albert put up extreme power numbers, but rather that he take the walks they tried to give him last year. He got himself out a lot last year swinging at ball 4 and this year he's going to have 3 legitimate power hitters behind him in Glaus, Duncan and ankiel (or Ludwick, if TLR puts the outfielders in the wrong spots in the batting order). Albert hasn't had more runs scored than RBI's since 2005; that needs to happen again this year.
by SleepyCA on Feb 17, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Minor league statistics
I'm pretty sure minor league balls aren't replaced as often, so minor league hitting statistics are dampened both by the initial quality of the balls and, to a degree, dead ball play from overusing them. Warning-track swings in the minors could be homers with the major league ball.
That sort of effect would be built into MLE calculations, but it's interesting to consider it may explain why Duncan has outperformed his minor league power numbers.
by liam on Feb 17, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rasumus Shouldn't Make the Team Out of Spring ...
It is not likely he's going to play appreciably better than a Schumaker/Barton tandem during those 10 weeks, anyway. If they were going to have him start in the majors this year, he shoudl have played at least some AAA last year.
by tarakas on Feb 17, 2008 10:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
You're assuming
by fourstick on Feb 19, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This kind of spring is
by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 17, 2008 10:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't expect any suprises
Duncan Schumaker
Ankiel Barton
Ludwick
Glaus Speizo
Izzy2 Miles
Kennedy
His Imminence(Cardinal Pujols)
Molina
LaRue
Wainman Izzy
Pineiro Thompson
Looper Springer
Welley Franklin
Clement Flores
TJ
?
Maybe Juan Gone can make the roster. We would have to make room at Schumaker's expense. Barton might be to good to let go. Hoff and Ryan will start at AAA as the middle infield combo. They should play everyday and be ready for the call. Phelps too should be ready for the call if Sir Albert goes on the DL. Rasmus needs more time. There is no reason to rush him. I guess it is possible for Tony to shorten the pen and add Ryan.
Reyes? What to do with Reyes? I have him starting in Memphis. He can pitch lights out, and maybe another team makes us an offer. He wouldn't be bad insurance if a starter gets hurt, or Mulder craps out. I might be wrong about that. Welley could be in the pen and Reyes gets the spot, but if I was a betting man I would wager that Reyes starts the season in Memphis.
How wrong am I? Let me know.
by nybirdfan on Feb 17, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Your roster
by Hinkster on Feb 17, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmm
You could say ankiel is a youngster playing outfield but luwick's been in the minors for years.
And didn't Percival elect to not have surgery and his forearm came out alright. Granted that was basically 2 years of recovery, but he's nearing 40 unlike pujols, who isn't even 30, and age does play a factor with healing.
by cardwash on Feb 17, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wellemeyer
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 17, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Clement
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/bird-land/bird-land/2008/02/clement-unlikely-for-opening-day/
by DCGreg on Feb 17, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is oh, so strange......
by jillsinmo on Feb 17, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually DC, you posted 4 seconds before me.......
by jillsinmo on Feb 17, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
those
by DCGreg on Feb 17, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It was! You are scaring me.........
by jillsinmo on Feb 17, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This picture made me happy this morn:
by Alxfritz on Feb 17, 2008 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Colby looks huge
:D
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 17, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is it just my monitor
by StanTheManFan on Feb 17, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's the glint off his future MVP trophy
by azruavatar on Feb 17, 2008 9:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Judging by the bag laying on the ground
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 17, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
by ridgesee on Feb 17, 2008 3:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Any option would be better than Izturis...
Very few players are actually worse than the mythical "replacement player", but Izturis is. And consistently so.
Any option would be better than him. Heck, getting Ozzie out of retirement would be better. He'd get on base more, I'd bet.
by DiscoJer on Feb 17, 2008 3:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Looky here.......
Sorry, I still can't get my mind around the "tiny url" procedure......
by jillsinmo on Feb 17, 2008 4:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
In that case...
by tbell61 on Feb 17, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yow...
by cardschinmusic on Feb 17, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i for one,
add Clement to the list of Carp & Mulder of guys we'll get almost daily updates from here on out about how they are not any closer to getting back on the mound than they were when they first got injured.
good grief.
my kingdom! my kingdom for a healthy & productive starting rotation!
by gdm426 on Feb 17, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Da Meat in Da LOU
I feel like he'd be a quality bench asset even with Pujols healthy. He's a switch hitter who hits for a denent average and decent power.
If Nick Johnson can rake a bit in Spring Training, then maybe making a move for DaMeatHook sooner would be better than waiting for later.
Waiting for Pujols to have to miss time will drive up asking prices from other teams accross the board.
Plus, he's not a great option, but he could roam the OF a little bit as well.
by mwinf12 on Feb 17, 2008 11:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
this is cruel but funny
by punchinjudy on Feb 18, 2008 12:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
bernie's thoughts about Clement
by gdm426 on Feb 18, 2008 12:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

by 

















