2008 AL West Preview
I had in my mind to start a preview of the NL Central teams leading into spring training but Friday's post by AZ beat me to it. I decided not to jump in and take his steam away from him so I thought that, beginning today, I'd preview each of the 6 divisions - ending w/ the NL Central. Today I'm going to start w/ the AL West. Secretly, I'm hoping the Twins figure out Santana's new home fairly quickly so I can incorporate that into my previews of the AL Central, AL East, and NL East.
Here is a summary of the most important team stats from '07:
| W | L | Pyth W | Off. R/G | Pit. R/G | RZR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | 94 | 68 | 90 | 5.07 | 4.51 | .810 |
| Mariners | 88 | 74 | 79 | 4.90 | 5.02 | .800 |
| Athletics | 76 | 86 | 79 | 4.57 | 4.68 | .835 |
| Rangers | 75 | 87 | 78 | 5.04 | 5.21 | .812 |
The Anaheim/San Bernadino/Escondido/Chino/Rancho Cucamonga/Big Bear City Angels won this division last year before receiving their 3-game beatdown from the eventual World Champion Boston Red Sox last October. Most observers believed that the A's would be the Angels' toughest competitors but it turned out that it was Jeff Weaver's Mariners who were able to masquerade as a legitimate contender for most of the season.
These teams went through many changes this offseason. The Angels have attempted to get over the hump and return to their 1st world series since David Eckstein, Adam Kennedy, Scott Spiezio, and Troy Glaus manned their infield. The A's have decided that their best opportunity has come and gone and so now it is time to rebuild again. The M's seem to believe that their 88 actual wins are a better predictor of this season than their 79 pythagorean wins are and have tweaked their roster to that effect. The Rangers, for the 75th consecutive offseason, spent it searching for a pitching staff. Maybe this is the year their quest finally pays off!
Starting at the top, the Angels once again appear to be the class of the division. Their starting pitching depth is impressive - w/ Lackey, Escobar, Garland, Jared (the other) Weaver, Saunders and Cards' fans' favorite - Ervin Santana. They still boast a very strong bullpen w/ K-Rod closing it out, buoyed by Shields, Speier and others.
The knock against the Angels last year was that they had trouble scoring runs. In fact, they finished 4th in the AL in scoring, despite a league average .762 OPS. The two primary factors for this appear to be their 139 SB's (71.6%) and their .315 BABIP. Still, if they're to get past the Sox and Yanks and return to the fall classic, they're going to have to figure out how to increase their slugging % from .417.
To that end, this offseason they added Torii Hunter by signing the 32 year old CF to a 5 year, $90 M contract. The wisdom of this is certainly questionable considering that Hunter has never had an OBP above .337 or an OPS above .860. The idea that this guy, who's played CF on turf all his career and is entering his age 33 season is going to push their offense past the Sox and Yankees is pretty far-fetched. There were whispers all offseason that everyone from ARod to Miguel Tejada to Paul Konerko to Scott Rolen would end up in Southern California. Instead, they ended up w/ Hunter. Oh well. It oughtta be enough for them to win the west.
The Mariners surprised most observers by hanging around and becoming Castroville's primary challenger for most of the summer. They did this despite being outscored for the season and having the worst defense in the division. The Mariners' two main changes this offseason were to allow Jose Guillen to take his sideshow to Kansas City and to discard Jeff Weaver in favor of Carlos Silva. Replacing Guillen in Seattle's OF will be top prospect Adam Jones - their version of Colby Rasmus. While Silva is most certainly overrated, he is also a distinct improvement from Weaver.
The other good news for the Mariners is that this is their last year to be paying for Richie Sexson - a horrendous free agent signing back in 2005. Jones becomes either the RF or CF, depending on what they do w/ Ichiro, unless he is moved to Baltimore in a long-rumored deal for Erik Bedard. Bedard would certainly improve a pitching staff that includes Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, and Horacio Ramirez but I'm not sure that trading 6 years of Jones + others is worth 2 years of Bedard. You could argue that the M's are close enough to Los Gatos to justify the trade but it still seems an awfully steep price.
One reason the M's were able to outperform their run differential last year was b/c of the strength of their bullpen. It's led by the best closer that most people have never heard of - J.J. Putz. George Sherill is a very tough lefty but the pen will lose Brandon Morrow as he makes the transition to the rotation. The M's are hardly a complete team, what w/ Jose Vidro as their part-time DH, Yuniesky Betancourt and his 15 BB's in more than 550 PA's at SS, and Raul Ibanez butchering balls in an expansive LF but with the Rangers being, well, the Rangers and the A's in transition, they seem almost a lock for 2nd behind Carmel.
The A's had the most eventful offseason of the teams in the AL West. They traded Dan Haren for half of Arizona's farm system w/o having the decency to offer him back to us for Mark Mulder. Then, just 3 weeks ago, they traded Moneyball-hero Nick Swisher to the White Sox for 3 prospects - the best of which has been traded 3 times in 2 years. Some have criticized the prospects they received in these two trades but they got some pretty good names. Carlos Gonzalez projects as a very good CF and Chris Carter, though very young and very raw, has big-time power. I mocked Gio Gonzalez but he's a solid LHP prospect as is Brett Anderson. Did they receive several stars? Perhaps not but they did get some who should be solid players and a couple who just might become stars. Still, most of these players will see little, if any, playing time in Oakland this summer - one that appears to be a very long one for a team that has had a pretty good run over the last 7-8 years.
That brings us to the Rangers. When one of your team's big offseason acquisitions is to add Everyday Eddie Guardado to bolster (for lack of a more accurate yet, potentially, slanderous word) your bullpen - well, Rangers' fans will probably be paying a lot more attention to the drama between Tony Romo and Jessica Simpson than they will the team in Arlington. They flirted w/ adding one of the free agent CF's this offseason - coming close to landing Torii Hunter before Sunnyvale was able to land him w/ their outlandish offer. The Rangers responded with what I believe is a pretty good trade. They sent Edinson Volquez, a hard-throwing pitching prospect, to the Reds for one Josh Hamilton. The Rangers won't have a lot to watch in those 105 degree days in the Ballpark in Arlington but the 20,000 or so who turn out every night should enjoy watching Hamilton. He's young, can play CF, and will hit a lot of bombs in one of the best hitting environments in baseball.
Besides adding Guardado to their pen, the Rangers made Jason Jennings their #3 starter by signing him to a 1 year contract following his scintillating half season w/ the Astros. The good news is that they're only paying him Kip Wells-money. They spent some time trying to unload Kevin Millwood or asylum-destined Vicente Padilla onto some poor, unsuspecting GM but no one (as of yet) has fallen for it. Millwood's not a terrible pitcher, despite last year's 5.16 ERA but he does have 3 years and more than $45 M left on his contract. At least he's not certifiable! The Rangers' pitching last year was positively horrendous as Brandon McCarthy's 4.87 ERA was the best of the starters. He, actually, may turn into a pretty good pitcher but he's probably too much of a fly-ball pitcher to have any real success in Arlington.
There's not a whole lot to like in Arlington. They'll score some runs, what w/ Kinsler, Young, Saltalamacchia, and Blalock (assuming he comes to the plate more than 208 times in '08) but they'll, as usual, have a terrible time getting anybody out.
It seems pretty clear to me that the Angels will likely bring another division title back to Oxnard but they're still at least 1 hitter from overtaking the Sox, Yanks, Tigers, or Indians for the AL title. Perhaps Brandon Wood or Casey Kotchman can finally become the hitter they've been hoping for but they're still a little short, IMO. Still, unlike in previous seasons where they and the A's were locked in some pretty good pennant races throughout September, I don't see the other teams in the division mounting a significant challenge. That could change, of course, if Felix Hernandez turns into a Cy Young candidate (certainly possible) and/or the M's add Bedard to their rotation. Even so, the Angels are still probably too strong. At least the M's will get to watch Adam Jones go from top prospect to very good major leaguer. Hopefully, the Cards will get to do the same w/ Rasmus this year.
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35 comments
Comments
Bedard totally isn't worth it
by JI on Jan 27, 2008 1:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
for RF they do have
by moboiler on Jan 28, 2008 8:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I get to sneak in
I have for several days now been planning a 'plea' diary entry... begging you alphabet soup guys to have some mercy on us old codgers... who don't readily have a recognition or understanding of the 'sabermetric' {if that is even the right adjective} acronyms you use.
The ones that appear above (for me anyway) include:
Pyth-W
RZR
BABIP
and, believe it or not, OPS
I still intend to compile a longer list of greek-to-me befuddlements, but these four will do for a starter.
Segue: I am more familiar with Seattle's team than any other in the AL, because I like their radio team a lot and I am a night-owl. And while I too do not think they seem able to over-take the Angels, I think they are a little better than you seem to credit them.
A specific miff... I've never gotten any indication that Ibanez was a 'butcher' in LF. I don't doubt you, just can't believe I missed that.
by the Tewk on Jan 27, 2008 2:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Those four
RZR is just a defensive metricd from THT, and stands for "revised zone rating" which is just the proportion of balls in a players "zone" that he successfully fielder. It's not as highly regarded as some of the others. Introduction Article
BABIP is "batting average on balls in play." The formula is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF). Average BABIP for MLB is about .300. This goes up in the minors and college due to the level if fielding ability. Voros McCracken is a pretty famous sabermetrician who found that pitchers don't have too much control over this, though originally this was probably overstated. The range of actual talent by pitchers is probably something like .280-.320, and has to do with whether he's a groundball or flyball pitcher, the defense, park, and other factors. (Knuckeballers and Barry Zito have a pretty significant talent here).
This is one of those things that's hard to believe, but it's more likely that the entire process of getting the the Major Leagues has weeded out players who don't do this. In other words, most big leaguers have a decent and similar amount of this skill.
This is another largely debated point. The spread of talent is greater for hitters, and you would be better off including homeruns depending on what you are looking at anyway.
DER "defensive efficiency ratio" is just 1-BABIP. From the defense's perspective it's a measure of how often they turn a ball in play (not a strikeout, homerun or walk) into an out.
OPS is ob-base percentage plus slugging percentage. It matches up well to runs because the basis for run scoring is not making outs which keeps the lineup churning (OBP) and how many total bases a player gets getting him closer to home plate (SLG). There are better metrics, and it doesn't take into account baserunning of any kind, but it stands up pretty well as a quick and dirty measure as it just adds two concepts that are familiar to most baseball fans. The main drawbacks are that it doesn't take into account the park a player plays in and it doesn't properly weight the OBP aspect. There a really interesting mathematical breakdown at the end of this article.
I think the statistical reference page at Sons of Sam Horn is a great resource. Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, and Baseball-Reference also have glossaries.
by plh903 on Jan 27, 2008 9:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well aside
by plh903 on Jan 27, 2008 9:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
reference guide
by The Duke on Jan 27, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i keep promising to generate one of these
by lboros on Jan 27, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You could
http://redreporter.wikidot.com/
http://redreporter.wikidot.com/stats
http://www.sonsofsamhorn.net/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
http://digamma.net/btfwiki/index.php/Main_Page
Just one idea anyway.
by plh903 on Jan 27, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BTF
by cardschinmusic on Jan 28, 2008 5:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Party at my house!
"It seems pretty clear to me that the Angels will likely bring another division title back to Oxnard"
Well HC, Oxnard is just a few miles down the road so wel the Angels move out to Ventura County and capture a championship, we can party at my place.
by Zubin on Jan 27, 2008 5:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree the Angels are likely to repeat.
Seattle is going to have problems with the back end of their rotation. Horacio Ramirez has been just awful for them. They are thinking of trying Brandon Morrow as a starter. In fact, someone who writes about their prospects, (Jason Churchill? I'm not sure-read it a few weeks back) wants Seattle to pick up the unwanted by St. Louis Anthony Reyes. He said a lot of nice things about him. Mr. Mozeliak should call Seattle.
by jillsinmo on Jan 27, 2008 6:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Saw the same article
by That's a Winner on Jan 28, 2008 7:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You called it...
With Garland to eat up innings, the starting line and bullpen have both been improved. I give the west to the Angels, I think you called it.
The Rangers will be sneaking up on people this year.
by cardschinmusic on Jan 27, 2008 8:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
All those Orange County towns
by LTSmash on Jan 27, 2008 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Just for fun
I'd have a tough time believing his true level is 50% above league average in that. If the guy just doesn't get hammered on flyballs, his FIP is down into the 3.2ish range. Taking into account his age (still 21, younger than every other "young stud pitcher") and his ridiculous stuff, I could easily see him posting a sub-3 ERA. I don't know how far that would take the Mariners, but they wouldn't be dead in the water.
by joker24 on Jan 27, 2008 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Are we sure...
... the NL Central is the weakest division in baseball?
GO CARDS!!!
by SuperSeve on Jan 27, 2008 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
generally agree w/ your breakdown, HC
they are returning 3 SPs who made at least 20 starts w/ a league-avg or better era (blanton, gaudin, and di nardo); if harden gives them 20 starts and/or one of their good young pitchers steps forward, it'll be a competitive rotation. i'd much rather have their pitchers, as a group, than the mariners' (to say nothing of the cardinals').
oakland's everyday lineup has some decent assets already in place, e.g. daric barton, mark ellis, eric chavez, jack cust, and travis buck. carlos gonzalez is their version of colby rasmus --- probably could step in and deliver avg production or above. kurt suzuki looks like a league-average regular behind the plate.
i don't suggest they're going to win anything, but i see them as capable of giving the angels a run for their money.
by lboros on Jan 27, 2008 1:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
is it a given that Joe Blanton
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 27, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
by chuckb on Jan 27, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think it's less than 50-50 that blanton's dealt
by lboros on Jan 27, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus
by joker24 on Jan 27, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would send Mo flowers
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 27, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rotowire reporting
by joker24 on Jan 27, 2008 7:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
USSMariner
by azruavatar on Jan 27, 2008 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow!
Are the M's that close? I don't see it. There's something to be said for "going for it" if you're close, but does adding Bedard and Carlos Silva qualify as "going for it?"
Why didn't they add any offense this offseason? They've still got Vidro at DH, Sexson at 1B and Betancourt at SS. I guess Washburn and Batista are decent #3 and #4 starters but who's going to play RF? Who'll play LF when Vidro's hurt and Ibanez is the DH? More importantly, what happens to their team in 2 years when Bedard is a Yankee, Met, or Red Sock and they don't have Jones and others, Ichiro is in his upper-30's, etc?
This is a huge gamble for Bavasi. Perhaps it's not a surprise given that he probably barely survived last season thanks to finishing 9 games above their pythagorean record.
by chuckb on Jan 27, 2008 8:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I don't get it
by joker24 on Jan 27, 2008 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If they are serious about making a run at the
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 27, 2008 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think anyone will sign him.
by JI on Jan 27, 2008 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right on
by JI on Jan 27, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
At least Bedard is awesome
by JI on Jan 27, 2008 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry for stealing your proverbial thunder, HC
I think one of the more interesting sub-texts to the Angels season will be their outfield playing time. With Vlad, Hunter, Willits and Matthews Jr. they have 4 players that were everyday players last year. I've read in the past that Willits looked to be the odd one out but that would be a pretty significant OBP hit imp.
by azruavatar on Jan 27, 2008 8:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No problem
by chuckb on Jan 27, 2008 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who are they slotting in at DH?
by Valatan on Jan 28, 2008 1:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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