NL Central Comparison: Pirates
by azruavatar on Jan 25, 2008 2:52 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
Email
PrintIn an effort to get a better idea of where the Cardinals are going to fall relative to the rest of the competition in the NL Central, I thought that it would be fun to take a look at how they stack up on a position by position basis. This also gives us a chance to step away from over-scrutinizing our own roster and see what else is going on around the division. We'll steer clear of getting precise statistically since I'm not PECOTA . . . . despite the fact that we were born in the same Intel batch of processors. I figured we'd start off with a happy post and compare the Cards to the Pirates.
I can't help myself but to not at least throw in a rough number of each player's offense and defense. I'll look at their VORP numbers and UZR to ballpark their numbers on offense and defense. The totals for both players will appear after each set of players like so (Offense / Defense) in terms of runs. I'm not trying to be scientific so set down your spreadsheets and calculators and try and use a little instinct.
C - Ronny Paulino/Ryan Doumit (15/0) vs. Yadier Molina/Jason Larue (10/10)
The Pirates catchers aren't terribly impressive as an offensive unit although there's usually a yearly mention of trying to "push" Paulino to do better. I'm willing to give Molina a pretty significant run credit in terms of defense although I'm a little more skeptical of his and Larue's offensive contributions. I think I'd rather have Molina defensively and for his intangibles than the marginal upgrade that Paulino and Doumit might represent as an offensive unit.
1B - Adam LaRoche (30/0) vs. Albert Pujols (80/15)
I don't think there's a lot of argument to be had here. LaRoche could pretty easily add about 10-15 runs to that estimation since he's still young and entering his peak years of production but Albert is just head and shoulders above anyone else at the position. Some of you might think that the defensive contributions look low on Albert's side as good as he was last year but 15 runs saved by a first baseman is significant if you consider ball in play distribution. There's only so many defensive opportunities for Albert to exceed with.
2B - Freddy Sanchez (25/10) vs. Adam Kennedy/Aaron Miles (0/5)
What's tragic is that the 0 would be an improvement over last year on the order of a win; Miles and Kennedy combined for -11 runs with Kennedy being the dead weight. What was lost among the indignation in LaRussa's delivery of the Adam Kennedy comment was that Kennedy may find himself out of a job if he can't perform. I know he was injured but the track record for 2B over 30 isn't pretty. Freddy Sanchez is a quality player for the keystone position and if I was Neil Huntington I'd want to turn him into prospects as fast as my fingers could dial. He'll be entering his age 30 season and has probably peaked as a player. That said, I'd take him over our walking dead in a heartbeat.
SS - Jack Wilson (15/10) vs. Cesar Izturis (5/0)
Setting aside Wilson's nifty VORP last year he posted below 5 the previous two years. UZR isn't a huge fan of his defense but I think he's a safe bet to save 10 runs with his glove. Izturis is something of a crapshoot since he has supporters that argue he'll be better with more confidence and a full-time gig. I'm one of the detractors that thinks his bat has gone to mush and his speed has deteriorated to the point that he's not a defensive asset. I don't think either side is really going to budge in that position but hopefully both would agree that Wilson is the better bet to produce next year.
3B - Jose Bautista (5/5) vs. Troy Glaus (30/0)
It's weird to type Troy Glaus as our 3rd baseman. It'll be nice to have another potent bat in the lineup but I'll miss the outstanding defense of Rolen. There's no real competition between Glaus and Bautista as Glaus will carry the day with his bat.
RF - Xavier Nady (15/0) vs. Ryan Ludwick (20/5)
Nady is miscast as an everyday player but he accumulated 470 PAs last year for the Pirates. They don't have a lot of alternatives so I can understand why but he's overexposed playing against good right handed pitchers. Ludwick is interesting in that he used to be a well regarded prospect, was injured several times, started off slow last season and finally performed very well down the stretch. Maybe everything finally came together last year or maybe it was a fluke -- I don't think anyone knows with a great degree of certainty. His offensive production is probably somewhere in between where he started after his callup and the tear he went on to complete the season. He should be an above average fielder at the corner position as well. I'll take Ludwick.
CF - Clusterf__k (15/5) vs. Rick Ankiel (20/0)
If the Pirates have really sorted out their centerfield situation I'm not aware of it. Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth and Chris Duffy all spent time their last season. McLouth had the best numbers last year but Morgan was still getting acquainted with the majors. Chris Duffy . . . well . . . he was a warm body that caught baseballs. Ankiel had a .328 OBP in 190 PAs last season and I don't think he'll ever be a particularly patient hitter. He does have power in spades which obviously helps. Defensively, I doubt he's more than average in center despite having a rocket for an arm. I wonder who throws harder -- Ankiel or Molina? Ankiel looks better on paper to me and has more upside given that he's still new to hitting for his money so I'll take him (until Rasmus is ready).
LF - Jason Bay(30/0) vs Chris Duncan (30/-15)
I'm amazed at how terrible Jason Bay was last year. He went from 72 VORP in 2005 to 50 in 2006 to 4 in 2007. I repeat, he went from a 7 win player to a 1 win player in 2 years. Care to explain that? I'll bet on a modest bounceback since he's still young. What would a full year of Chris Duncan look like? I imagine LaRussa will still employ some platooning but Duncan is a good power threat who can also take a walk. Unfortunately, he's an absolute disaster in the field. Despite Bay's poor showing last year, I'd rather have him than Chris Duncan.
Pitching-
Ian Snell vs. Adam Wainwright
Tom Gorzellany vs. Joel Pineiro
Paul Maholm vs. Braden Looper
Zach Duke vs. Matt Clement
Matt Morris vs. ???
I'll take Wainwright and then the rest of the Pittsburgh staff please. I'll look closer at the pitching when we hit the next team (I'm thinking the Astros?), but there's definitely more potential on the Pittsburgh staff and you could argue that they're in a better position to produce now as well. Still, I don't think that the separation between the staffs is monstrous by any means. Offensively, the Cardinals appear to be the better team thanks primarily to their strengths at the corner infield positions. Albert is just crazy good and Glaus should be an above average player. In the end, I'll take the Cardinals to finish ahead of the Pirates this year in the NL Central.
65 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I'll take a tall order of Snell
As far as CF, Duffy is out of the running. It's McLouth or Morgan now as the Pirates aren't pleased with Duffy's work ethic (atleast last I heard).
Anyways, great roundup there. The Pirates gain the edge at 1B if Pujols hits the DL, though.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 25, 2008 3:15 AM EST reply actions
If Pujols goes down in the first month
1B
Depends...
... if you prefer Shu numbers to Phelps numbers. I would prefer Phelps at 1st.
GO CARDS!!!
or gorzelanny
I always thought laroche was a very good defensive 1B. Guess not? PMR says he's above average but less than 9 outs above (Pujols was +40!). i do think he'll be a lot better with the bat this year- I think the fans early reaction to him really hurt his performance this year. I'll be surprised if his OPS is under .900 this year and wouldn't be surprised by 40 HR's.
I'm also amazed that Pittsburgh can justify giving a guy with below average defense and a career OPS under .740 600 PA's at third base... I know he's young, but he doesn't seem to be the type who will get a lot better.
I would take
The amazing thing
Lineup
Morgan
Sanchez
Pujols
Bay
Bautista
Nady
Doumit
Wilson
Pitcher
They'd score alot of runs and play some of the best infield defense in the league.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 25, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
cards, c'mon
I like snell and gorzelanny over piniero and looper, but I'm still anxious to see how well clement can perform. (hoping for a 2004 carpenter-esque kind of performace)
AZ...
Azru, good job.
We'll be lucky....thats what we'll be!
by cardschinmusic on Jan 25, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
Cesar Izturis vs. Jack Wilson
(I apologize for the length of this post and trust that people will jump past it if they object to my going out of bounds with such a detailed analysis.)
Because of his excellent defense, the Dodgers rushed Izturis to the NL too young, when he was only 21 years old, before he had developed as a hitter, and he was an awful hitter his first two full seasons, when he was 22 and 23 years old:
2002 AVG .232, OBP .253!!!
2003 AVG .251, OBP .282!!!
In his third full season, at age 24, Izturis moved up the learning curve enough to become a respectable hitter:
2004 AVG .288, OBP .330
That year he had 193 hits, including 4 HR, struck out only 70 times in 670 AB, and stole 25 bases in 34 attempts. He also won a gold glove.
The upward trend in his hitting continued in the beginning of his fourth full season, at age 25:
April 2005 AVG .333, OBP .370 in 102 AB
May 2005 AVG .350, OBP .402 in 117 AB
Izturis was voted to the All-Star team that season.
But in June 2005 he began having a series of physical ailments and as a result his hitting abruptly plummeted:
June 2005 AVG .105, OBP .154, in only 86 AB
His hitting continued to suffer and his playing time continued to diminish significantly the rest of that year. After the All-Star break he had only 22 more AB than he had had in May alone:
2005 Post-ASB AVG .216, OBP .257, in 139 AB
Izturis was playing hurt. At the end of that 2005 season Izturis had Tommy John surgery. During the offseason, the Dodgers signed Furcal to play SS. After Izturis returned to the diamond, on June 20, 2006, the Dodgers played him part-time at third base. A month later, on July 31, 2006, Izturis was traded to the Cubs for Greg Maddux and $2 million cash.
Only three weeks later, on August 22, 2006, the Cubs put Izturis on the DL with bad hamstring. He had only 60 AB that month and his hitting continued to suffer (.233 AVG, .292 OBP). When he came off the DL in September he had only 13 AB.
It seems that these severe disruptions of Izturis' regular play, through a combination of physical ailments and being shifted from SS to 3B, as well as being traded in the middle of the season and soon after going on the DL, seriously interfered with Izturis' timing or his confidence as a hitter, or both.
By the beginning of last year Izturis had lost his job as the regular SS for the Cubs. He had only 50 AB in April and his hitting continued to suffer under those conditions:
.200 AVG, . 273 OBP
But in May, Izturis got more playing time, he seemed to get back on track again finally:
.297 AVG, .350 OBP in 74 AB
Izturis outhit Ryan Theriot that month. But in the next month, the Cubs gave Theriot increasing playing time as the regular SS and the Cubs reduced playing time for Izturis, once again relegated to the role of utility player (56 AB in June) and his hitting plummeted again:
June 2007 AVG .232, OBP .259.
Finally, on July 19, 2007, the Cubs sent Izturis to the Pirates. He had only 28 AB that month and 106 AB for the rest of the season.
How will Izturis respond to being given regular AB's every day again and playing at his natural position full time at short? How will he respond to the encouragement of his fellow Latin Americans who are the team leaders on the Cardinal infield, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Jose Oquendo, and to playing before a full house of encouraging, gracious fans rooting for him every home game in St. Louis' "Baseball Heaven"? Will these conditions allow him to regain his confidence and find his batting groove again, so he can play at the level he did in 2004 and the first third of 2005, before his physical ailments derailed his career? Will Cesar get back on track on his development curve as a hitter, from his premature entry to the NL, into his third season when his hitting came together respectably?
It should be fascinating seeing that question answered when the season begins.
VEB contributors consistently apply the principle that the best predictor of future performance is past performance under similar conditions, especially the most recent performance. The most recent set of data we have for Itzuris under normal conditions, that is, as a healthy player with a full time role at one position, is in 2004 and the first third of 2005.
Based on that set of data, Izturis has demonstrated that he can reasonably be expected to be a respectable hitter, maybe even a very good one, for a shortstop. The data cover 889 consecutive AB's over the season and a third in 2004 and 2005, before his physical problems began (elbow, hamstring, etc.). Izturis' AB's in this period amount to 33% of his career total of 2751 AB's, a very good sample size. In that large sample of AB's, Izturis has an AVG of .301 and an OBP of .344. It is extremely unlikely that performing at that level over that long a period was a fluke. And given that Izturis is still only 28 years old, it is reasonable to expect that he will still be near the top of his career curve.
If so, then it would seem to be a good bet that Izturis will contribute at least as much value as Jack Wilson this year. I expect many of you would be eager to take that bet.
I'll take that bet.
Goold
It's a bet, then, CG95!
But as a fielder, he will dazzle us, if he regains the form he showed in LA.
Here's a description of his fielding, from the Dodgers' official MLB.com site:
"Izturis had the biggest range by a shortstop that I have seen. He usually could throw the runner out from anywhere in his range....
"The small young shortstop had the fastest hands that I have seen on a baseball field. Izturis grabbed line drives before I could focus on the play. He fielded ground balls smoothly and quickly. He turned double plays effortlessly....
"In 2004, Izturis committed only 10 errors, earning him the National League Gold Glove.
http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com
November 30 ,2007
It seems that people have concluded that CIz has lost speed and range. I wonder how much of that impression comes from the impact of his hamstring in 2006 and the splitting of his time at SS, 3B, and 2B since that season, rather than playing one position regularly.
Great entry
I also agree with you completely. This is where I am torn, I am a SABR guy but I am also a 3 Nights in August guy (still half way into it right now). I like looking at stats and mental aspects of the game. CI is my dark horse for this year.
his minor league numbers
Per baseball reference his minor league numbers don't support that he'll be very good. His OBP is highly dependent on BA.
Minor league numbers of .262/.296/.332 don't suggest that he was ever going to be that great. Without superior defense he doesn't really add that much.
A 21-year-old in the major leagues
Whatever happened to highly touted shortstop Tyler Greene, the Cardinals' #1 pick in the 2005 draft? Compare Greene with Izturis. Greene will be 25 this August. Izturis was playing in the Major League All Star game when he was that age.
You just made his point for him
I've always thought he was a capable hitter and he seems to know his limitations at the plate. He has been a good basestealer in the past when healthy, and his defense was top notch when he was in Los Angeles. I think the above breakdown proves he's not a all-field/no-hit SS and can provide some offensive punch when healthy.
Is .270 AVG, .330 OBP hoping for too much?
But if we indulge in best case scenario projections for Izturis, we might envision him returning to his level of play in his 889 AB's in 2004 and early 2005, with a .301 AVG and .344 OBP. That would be only slightly behind Eckstein's batting performance last year: .309 AVG and a .356 OBP in 434 AB.
And Izturis' fielding can reasonably be expected to be far better than Eckstein's was last year (20 errors in 117 games).
With even respectable hitting, not the best case scenario, Izturis would be a bargain. His salary is approaching $2 million less than Eckstein's.
Probably
His entire .330/.381 spike in 2004 was based on a few more doubles, four homers and a 30 pt BABIP spike.
It's all the same. Always has been, no matter if he's been young or not for his levels. He's 28 now and his one "good" year is smoke and mirrors.
I'll bet that his walk rate will be less than 8% and his ISOP will be less than .85. Maybe he has a fluky BA again and posts a year that is above replacement level, but that's not the likely outcome.
Cesar's upward trend into 2004 isn't fluky at all
Then he was accelerated from an A+ league to AAA! That year his performance dropped dramatically. But after one year of experience at AAA, Izturis had adjusted and he showed great improvement across the board again, in AVG, OBP, and SLG.
That pattern continued in his first three years in the NL. It is remarkable not only because of its consistency but also because of how unusual it is for a player to show an improvement in hitting performance rather than a decline as he moves up through the minor league levels. Izturis shows an improvement in AVG, OBP, and SLG with every promotion except the one year he skips a level (from A+ to AAA) and seems to be overmatched for a year before he begins to catch up on the learning curve:
A- in 1997
.190 AVG, .241 OBP, .216 SLG
A in 1998
.262 AVG, .297 OBP, .305 SLG
A+ in 1999
.308 AVG, .337 OBP, .422 SLG
AAA in 2000
.218 AVG, .253 OBP, .278 SLG
AAA in 2001
.292 AVG, .310 OBP, .374 SLG
2001 ML data not included because of smaller sample (only 134 AB)
NL 2002
.232 AVG, .253 OBP, .303 SLG
NL 2003
.251 AVG, .282 OBP, .315 SLG.
NL 2004
.288 AVG, .330 OBP, .381 SLG
A 70 game
We have several thousand relevant plate appearances since then. If you want to address my argument about his luck with balls in play, feel free. Saying his batting average got better when his skills didn't change is weak. We'd expect a "true" .259 hitter to hit .288 once or twice in their career. Big deal. He's an out-machine, has a low BABIP, strikes out twice as much as he walks, his career year is an 88 OPS+, he doesn't have any sort of isolated power, etc etc.
You can't hinge an entire argument on one base hit falling in or not falling in every nine games. THAT'S the difference between 2004 and every other year of his career. That magical year in the FSL? He walked 3.9% of the time! I guess he has gotten a little better.
And the two
So basically, we have to do some ridiculous selective endpointing to come up with a "best case scenario" ceiling that's like a .725 OPS if he plays over his head and gets incredibly lucky for an entire year. LOL
How do we know the ceiling on CI's skillset?
If we calibrate the normal age for players in each league, Izturis was well ahead of his cohort in his advancement through the minor leagues. That offsets to some degree the lower numbers he put up. How many players win a gold glove and play in the All Star game at the age of 24? I'd say that reflects very good talent and very good skill set for a player his age at the time.
What distorts his numbers is the interruption in his development curve and the steady progression in his performance stats caused by a series of physical ailments, and by changing positions, and by changing teams two years in a row in mid-season. It's well understood that many players show a decline in performance, especially in hitting, when they play part time, because of the difficulty of maintaining their timing. That's why being a pinch hitter is much more difficult than being an every day hitter.
All of these influences on CI's performance confound the analysis of his performance and his skill set; that's why they must not be included in making projections of his performance now that he is healthy and will be playing full time at one position. If you include the flawed data from the second half of 2006 in the analysis, it becomes a matter of garbage in, garbage out.
I meant to write....
The "best case
Let me ask you this: If you took the over on a batting line, and I took the under (for enough money for it to matter to you), and you got to set the line, where would you set it?
Cards Win Series, on the subject
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 25, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks, MdRF. I think....
Regression to the trend line, not the career mean
How many players can you find who hit for a higher AVG, OPS, and SLG every time they are promoted to the next higher league or remain at the same level, for 8 straight years without exception? That is a perfect correlation over time, which is extremely unlikely to have happened by "luck" or "fluke".
A regression analysis would show a very consistent positive trend to his learning curve, with low variance, still going up at the time he became physically impaired, at the age of 25.
People often talk about regression to the mean. When a clear trend is established in the data, the regression is not to the mean for the data overall but rather a regression to the trend line. Based on that well established method of mathematical analysis, the most reasonable prediction is that Izturis will pick up where he left off in 2004 and early 2005, when the same conditions that prevailed then are in place again: good health, regular play, one position to play.
This is not "cherry picking" the data. It is matching the conditions for performance previously with the conditions expected in the projected time period, 2008. It's called filtering the data to remove data that may have been affected significantly by different circumstances (esp. physical impediments and new learning curves in unfamiliar fielding positions).
The trend analysis indicates that the most likely case is that Izturis, now 28 and still near the top of his age-performance curve, will hit as well or better than he did in the last 889 consecutive AB's when he played under the same conditions. A .270 AVG and .330 OPS is conservative in this case, comfortably above the lower margin for error.
And, yes, I'd put my money on this bet, with one important proviso: that LaRussa does not repeat the mistake he has made the last two years by giving Miles over 400 AB's, many of them at SS, thus preventing Izturis from getting his timing back in his hitting. Look at Miles performance in the Major Leagues and you will see a very different pattern: not an upward trend but steady mediocrity, placing him very near the bottom of the class for all middle infielders in MLB with at least 400 AB's last year.
physical vs fielding
And, physical problems can definitely skew some data.
However, I am not convinced there is any correlation between learning a new fielding position and a negative affect on hitting. I don't think guys lose concentration at the plate or forget how to hit because they are shifted in the field.
What about his
What are the minimum number of at-bats?
Will you make this bet on his isolated rates? I really don't care about his batting average like you seem to, but I'll do it either way I guess.
Charity? Dollar amount?
staying healthy
probably not a good sign
at least he got a hit yesterday.
not a bad line overall though...
AVG/G/AB/R/H/2B/3B/HR/RBI/TB/BB/SO/SB/CS/OBP/SLG/ OPS
.333/16/63/8/21/3/1/0/4/26/2/6/20/.348/.413/.761
There is also this
Now you can downgrade that a bit since Izturis has very little power (thus fewer fly balls turning into doubles), but that still gives you a line around .285/.323/.350, nothing world-beating but not bad for a dumpster-dive SS.
by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jan 25, 2008 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
he's also
He does put up a lot of infield flies, and I've never seen an exact breakdown of the PrOPS formula so I don't know if those are included. Anyone have this? I've read the hardball times article but it is depressingly vague.
Your arguments give me pause
the defensive contributions
Missing from this analysis
As for the bench, one thing about running a bunch of mediocrities out there in the middle infield is that you don't lose much by replacing them with the subs. This is also true in the outfield; although the starters should be better than mediocre, they still won't be that much better than the guys on the bench. Pittsburgh's bench (and Houston's and Chicago's and maybe even Cincinnati's) is paper-thin by comparison. Of course there is one place where the Cards' bench is thinner than anyone else's, at least in terms of drop-off if the starter goes down... but lack of backup for AP is a nice problem to have.
Good point...
by cardzfanbub on Jan 25, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
close
Ideally the starters would do more and the relievers less, though. FWIW the pirates were 933 and 514, cubs 955 and 491, etc. MLB averages were 937.8 and 509.7.
(sorry az, I just can't go a day without using a calculator ;)
instincts
stl 7 plyrs, pit 6 plyrs
izzy, franklin, springer...10/6
for fun . . .
First Team
1b--Albert
2b--Brandon Philips
3b--Glaus
SS--JJ Hardy
RF--Griffey
LF--Braun--among a ton of defensive blackholes (dunn, lee, duncan, soriano)
CF--Cameron
C--Yadi
S1--Oswalt
S2--Harang
S3--Wainwright
S4--Zambrano
S5--Sheets
Closer--Cordero
by SprfldCards on Jan 25, 2008 11:50 AM EST reply actions
signature
by SprfldCards on Jan 25, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
hoping for mv5 myself...
Most Vomitous 3?
Most Vaunted 3?
Rasmus, Hoffpair, Ankiel
Most Vegatarian 1?
LaRussa
Oh, the possibilities are endless.
only 1 GG?
I would put it like this...
1B - Pujols
2B - Phillips
3B - Aramis Ramirez
SS - Hardy (or Tejada, if he can still handle the position)
LF - Braun
CF - Hoping that Hunter Pence or Corey Hart can handle this one!
RF - The other one of the two.
I'd keep the pitchers the same, though I might consider replacing Zambrano with Rich Hill or something.
Closer: Izzy!
by bobtheking on Jan 25, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
okay . . .
by SprfldCards on Jan 25, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Well, he's
LF generally don't win gold gloves anyway.
Look at his OF assists. He's racked up like 40 of them over the past year (both years more than any LF since 1970 or something). That's insanely valuable.
Alfonso
Alfonso's D gets talked up way more just because he throws guys out. I don't know why teams still challenge him, but you routinely see 3B coaches send runners when they have no business. Alfonso has a quick release and even with a short arm motion he is verry accurate.
I however would call him far from great out there. Don't bee fooled by all his assists.
Really. Soriano is fine when a lollipop comes
Cardinals/Pirates comparison
Matchup - Cardinals Win Expectancy
Wainwright vs Gorzellany - .462
Gorzellany vs Wainwright - .586
Reyes vs Snell - .481
Snell vs Reyes - .558
Looper vs Duke - .482
Duke vs Looper - .575
Clement vs Maholm - .476
Maholm vs Clement - .538
Pineiro vs Morris - .469
Morris vs Pineiro - .558
vr, Xei
I surprised by the margin
Glad to see Cesar
Izturis's VORP...
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
- Will Bryce Harper start the season with the Nationals?
- Mitch Mustain puts football behind him, signs reported rookie deal with White Sox
- Robinson Cano and Denzel Washington face off in Jay Leno’s Yankees trivia contest
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
