Molina Motion Madness

by azruavatar on Jan 18, 2008 3:34 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

Before we get to the main post today, I spent about 2 hours last night at the theater for the movie Cloverfield. I don't know how many of you have heard of this movie but it's by JJ Abrams, the creator of two of my favorite TV series (Lost, Alias), and it debuts this weekend. I was really eager to see this movie so I went with a small group of other individuals who aren't concerned about their sleep to a midnight showing.

I won't give any of the movie away. . .mainly because I can't. You see, I didn't actually watch the movie. I had tickets. I sat in the theater. I heard the movie. But I couldn't watch it. The movie utilizes a free moving camera to tape the entire 85 minutes. It's never stationary and it goes in and out of focus at random. Tragically, I have really bad motion sickness. So I spent 2 hours and $9 to sit in a large group of people with my head between my knees trying not to yak up my guts. I made it but barely.

I can say that the movie sounded really good. My friends all seemed to like the movie despite the slightly atypical ending. So I'd recommend the movie if you don't have problems with motion sickness.

***************

Over the last three years, Yadier Molina has accumulated a very consistent number plate appearances each year. 2005 and 2006 are very similar years, even if the rate stats don't look like it, but 2007 had two very important differences. As someone who likes Bryan Anderson's offensive potential, it's easy for me to dismiss Yadi's offensive potential. As a 25 year old, there's still time for him to improve his skillset. While we'd be surprised to see any major changes to the style of his game, it's not impossible.

Before we look at the two differences, I want to nip this idea that Yadi's numbers are better or worse because he's changing batting stances or tinkering with his swing or whatever. When he's accumulated 1200+ plate appearances, it's time to set aside these attempts at selectively sampling out his good month. He isn't going to suddenly start slugging .500 or bat .300 because of a batting stance. That is just wishful thinking.

So what are these two differences that I've alluded to? The first isn't really a skillset change but a correction of bad luck. In 2005, Molina had 424 PAs with a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .256. That number looks like bad luck. Not terrible luck given how slow Molina is but the league average is closer to .300. 2006 saw similar results. In 459 PAs, he had a .227 BABIP despite a 19% line drive rate. Last year finally showed a correction of that unfortunate random variation. He posted a .299 BABIP in 401 PAs and slightly improved his line drive rate. So that's all a good thing. Moving forward, I'd expect him to sit somewhere in the .280-290 BABIP range if everything else remains equal.

More importantly than seeing a correction of bad luck, was what appears to be a real improvement in a skillset. Here are his walk rates for 2005-2007: 5.5, 5.7, 9.7 -- he improved his walk rate by 70% last year. Now the thing to watch next year is whether or not he can sustain that improvement. If so, that's a fantastic stride forward and it bodes well for him actually being an asset to the team. Even if there's a slight regression, improvements to a skill like this show real progress on the part of the player. If his OBP stays north of .330 (it was .338 last year), then Molina is almost certainly a plus for the team relative to his position.

There's another area that, conceivably, Molina could continue to develop in. It wasn't that long ago that I figured he could turn into a 10-15 HR player. For a catcher, that's respectable although nothing amazing. His isolated power has been very consistent from year to year from 2005-2007 sitting around .100. While I no longer expect Molina to make great strides in terms of his power production, it's still not something that I would completely rule out.

In the end, I'm wary of predicting Molina as making huge improvements next year. I'd like to see him stay behind the plate for another 10 games or so but the wear and tear of being a catcher is well documented and Jason LaRue isn't the worst of backup options. If he can sustain the improved walk rates and avoid another turn of bad luck with his batting average, that would bode well for his projection going forward. He's nearing his peak years and any improvement now should be taken as a good sign.

I'll leave you with a pair of questions to discuss today:

If you were John Mozeliak, would you sign Molina to a multiyear deal this offseason?
If yes, sketch out the salary you'd settle on each season of the deal. (Yadier is a 1st year arbitration player this year meaning he'll be a free agent after 2010.)

Tweet Comment 76 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Yadi terms

thanks az for something new to read this time of morning. it's like getting tomorrows news today.

yadi is going to have a steady career, and keep his value. you also didn't mention how good he's been w/risp. if we think there is a chance of anderson vying for his spot within two seasons, it makes sense to me to go long on yadi's contract to have something to secure a trade for good return. and in that view i wouldn't heavily back load it.

if on the otherhand, anderson is the player to find another home, then you have yadi locked in for a good run. starting catcher is not a position to be changing often given all the interaction with a pitching staff. love those late inning 1st base pick-offs! go yadi.

by Birds on the Bat on Jan 18, 2008 4:14 AM EST reply actions

I don't think

we're looking at the 2006 version of Yadi again anytime soon, but I'm not sure about the 2007 either. I'd be pretty shocked if he hit .275 going forward.

And he improved his walk rate by 3% last year, depending on how you want to say it. 5.6 to 8.6 is what I'm coming up with. Three BB over 100 plate appearances is a handful of runs a year, and not something that's necessarily reflects a new skill (though he could have made improvements here certainly).

His arm is fantastic, but other than that he's not especially good at blocking balls. This just isn't worth as much as people probably think.

I'm hoping that they'll trade him while he's still cost-controlled, and teams see him as worth more than he is.

by plh903 on Jan 18, 2008 5:42 AM EST reply actions

Picky point

It's in improvement of 3 percentage points.

It's not a 3% improvement, it's a 54% improvement.

I know, I know. Sorry.

by sdrone on Jan 18, 2008 9:14 AM EST up reply actions

The main factor...

... to evaluate is not what Molina gives, but what else do you have around (youth, FA) that can be better. Honestly, I don't see that much around. My impression is that Molina is absolutely able to maintain his 2007 offensive production, even do something better, barring injuries. What I would like to see him improve is his PB, absolutely not at the same level with his other defensive aspects. I would also keep his weight in check....

I would go with Molina, 4 years 15M diluted this way: 2+3+4+6. (Am I cheap? Should be...)

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Jan 18, 2008 7:42 AM EST reply actions

Superseve

agree 110%, even like the contract you've laid out.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Jan 18, 2008 8:49 AM EST up reply actions

The art and science of making baseball projections

AZ, your use of descriptive statistics is always steady, usually very interesting and often useful, but sometimes your interpretation of statistics is not very scientific. You note with your usual astute observation that Yadi has shown significant improvement in certain indicators of his batting skill (esp. walk rate), then in interpreting those observations you rely on your gut to dismiss outright the hypothesis that the improvement in Yadi's performance comes at least in part from his adoption of a consistent batting stance last year (vs. the continual tinkering he tried in earlier years). Shouldn't a guy be more cautious in relying on his gut to interpret statistics when his gut is thrown into turmoil in response merely to a moving camera? (That seems to be a fitting metaphor for how uneasy you seem to be with unstructured observation! : ) A ballplayer needs more than good tools to reach his potential, of course; to perform at his best level he also needs to develop his skill in applying his tools. Doesn't the same apply to compiling and interpreting statistics? If we rely either only on statistics or only on what scouts see, we fall short of what we can understand when we use both perspectives to draw our conclusions. It's very interesting to observe how you seem to come down very firmly on the side of using statistics and dismissing any observation that cannot be quantified, as if blending quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis is as unsettling to you as images from a moving camera in a dark theater....

by CardsWin on Jan 18, 2008 8:17 AM EST reply actions

The problem I have with assuming

that Molina hits better under certain batting stances is that you assume he's going to stick with one after being unable to for 3 years. When there's discussion of random variation, it isn't entirely this abstract monster that threatens children in their sleep -- it's things like tinkering and making adjustments and so on. That's all accounted for in his career line so far but making projections based on picking out very small subsections of a season is a dangerous path to go down.

by azruavatar on Jan 18, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

Hypotheses are not proven. They are disproven.

I'm not assuming anything, AZ. It's you who make an assumption, namely that Yadi's more consistent stance has nothing to do with the improvement in his batting. That is an interesting opinion, but it is simply not a scientific assertion. It would be equally unscientific to assert that Yadi's stance has made him a better hitter if that assertion were presented as a scientific or mathematical fact. I didn't say that. I don't say it now. I offered it as a hypothesis. My position is that whether or not Yadi's stance has improved his hitting has not been answered either way as a "fact". But it is interesting to discuss that possibility and compare notes on the case for or against that hypothesis.

A hypothesis does not become the accepted operating model in science because it is "proven" but rather because it fits the data and every other conceivable, rational alternative hypotheses has been eliminated through empirical evidence.

You have said on various occasions that since there is no empirical evidence to support hypothesis X that it is an invalid hypothesis. One example of such an assertion is your claim that how a catcher calls a game does not make a difference in the pitcher's performance. You base this assertion on the fact that you know of no evidence to support the hypothesis, so you just dismiss the hypothesis. Again, that is just not the way scientific analysis works.

Even very intelligent, knowledgeable analysts can fall into the trap of presenting opinions as empirical facts. That seems to be what you have done. You present no empirical evidence at all to disprove the hypothesis that a consistent stance may have improved Yadi's batting. You just make the assertion.

I respect your opinions, of course. They are always interesting and your analysis is often entertaining. But it is a mistake to present opinions as mathematically or scientifically based "facts".

by CardsWin on Jan 18, 2008 7:26 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe I didn't explain that well

What it would be wrong to conclude is that he's going to be able to stick with a single batting stance -- we've seen no evidence to support that claim. I don't think it's possible to look at his stats and say from X to Y he was using batting stance A but from Y to Z he was using batting stance B. That seems much to precise (read: selective) for us as fans to be able to do with any degree of accuracy. So while he may have more success with a certain batting stance, I don't think that we have any indications of what that success really looks like isolating other variables.

What we have instead is 1200+ plate appearances that give us a pretty good idea of what his skillset is. I laid out some areas that he could still improve given general aging curves and his 2007 numbers but I don't think he's going to make a giant leap forward, but as you said, that's just my opinion.

by azruavatar on Jan 18, 2008 9:29 PM EST up reply actions

One small step for Yadi. One giant leap for StL?

We both share the opinion that Yadi won't make a giant leap forward in his batting skills. But I am hopeful he will continue to show improvement and match the average offensive performance of ML catchers within the next couple of years. He's still young enough to have room for more skill development. As you yourself point out, he did make very significant strides last year in some batting skills.

One of the other commentators made the good point, though, that there is an alternative hypothesis to explain Yadi's improved walk ratio; namely, the possibility that he drew more walks this year because he was batting in front of the pitcher some of the time. Interesting. Perhaps his improved walk ratio wasn't a matter of skill improvement after all. Have you looked more closely at that hypothesis and tested it against the data?

Is there another catcher with exactly the same number of years of ML experience as Yadi that would you prefer to have on the team?

How do you expect Geovany Soto to do in his rookie season? Is that a great name, or what? I am afraid the Cubs look like the team to beat in the NL Central this year, with or without Soto getting off to a strong start to his ML career....

by CardsWin on Jan 19, 2008 12:56 AM EST up reply actions

Late response

Yadi's gotten IBB totals of 3, 2 & 5 in 2005-2007. I think it's a legitimate improvement last year not tied to the pitcher.

The two catchers that come to mind immediately are Brian McCann who has 2 years of service and Joe Mauer who has 4 years of service. Both are considered at least adequate defensively and are very good offensive catchers.

re: Soto
It's odd because prior to last year he wasn't looked at as having more than backup potential. He made some changes to his game, lost some weight I think and suddenly there's a lot of analysts that are projecting him to be a really fantastic hitter. He had a .400+ BABIP last season at both AAA and the majors so there's definitely some regression that's coming next year. His ISO was almost .300 which is where the questions lie. If he really suddenly found his power stroke than he'll be a good offensive catcher (think 20 HR potential) for several years.

In the end, I think fans and baseball writers became a little too enamored with Soto's performance last year after years of mediocrity. (On Kevin Goldstein's list he went from being unranked in 2006 to being the top 5-star prospect in 2007 -- that strikes me as bad evaluation for a player that's been in the system for several years.) He'll probably stick as a regular moving forward but I'm not as high on him as it seems a lot of others are.

by azruavatar on Jan 21, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

I meant to add that

I always appreciate and enjoy your analysis, AZ, even when I disagree with it. Your notes are always a good read.

by CardsWin on Jan 18, 2008 8:20 AM EST reply actions

going long on Yadi

I am a big fan of Molina, but we have time. Give him a nice raise, but wait and see. '08 will be a big year for him.

One thing I really liked is his post season performace in '05 and '06. I like Eck, but Yadi got boned on the WS MVP. He had much better series, and he carried Reyes through the early innings in game one.

I guess I am like J.D. on this one. I am a wait and see'er.

by nybirdfan on Jan 18, 2008 8:25 AM EST reply actions

Rolen

...smoked them both. That HR in game one was huge, his defense was superb as always, and he hit north of .400 for the series. No one on the Cards really had an outstanding series, but Rolen's was probably the best.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 18, 2008 9:05 AM EST up reply actions

I'm with you

Rolen should have gotten WS MVP... but on Molina, he should have got NLCS MVP (sorry Sup)
Ave .348/OBP .423/SLUG .652 (better than Pujols) 2HR (Game 7 winner) 6RBI thats gotta count for something. Sup doesn't win game 7 w/o Yadi's HR

by Stan and Slaughter on Jan 18, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

With you there

I've always felt that for pitchers to win MVP awards in the regular season/playoffs they have to single-handedly dominate in their appearances AND have no position players who were all that impressive. Suppan was lights out, but Yadi absolutely raked that series, and did it pretty much every game. He should have won NLCS MVP, and Rolen should have won the WS MVP.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 18, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions

I like Yadi a lot

also but I'd give him a raise and wait as has been suggested. It has been mentioned often on this site about Yadi "fiddling" with his batting stance and I don't think that has hurt him. Players that are not power hitters have done that over the years with success. One of the most notable was George Kell, a third baseman who had a 20 year career in the AL and had a lifetime batting average of over .300. He had different stances for different pitchers and would often change stances during an at bat. On two strikes, he would often open up his stance to almost facing the pitcher, lower his bat and slap the ball to right field. sometimes if he saw the defense moving, he'd close back up and hit the ball up the middle. In the 50's other hitters copied Kell with success. I think Yadi should concentrate on hitting to right more and I think that is what he is trying to find a good way to do. He might be just a George Kell type hitter.

by ridgesee on Jan 18, 2008 9:31 AM EST up reply actions

Yadi

I think NOT tinkering with his stance had SOME affect. There's the mental security of knowing you're in something that works, plus you get some consistency that way. So to just dismiss that is incomplete.

However, the bigger improvement he made was in his patience. He's always been a hyper-aggressive hitter, but last season he drew 8 more walks than in 06 in considerably fewer ABs. He still has a nasty habit of swinging at pitcher's pitches early in the count, but he did that a little less last year, which helped him out considerably. I think from this point on he'll be closer to his 07 production than 06.

Now, as for resigning him...Geez, that's a tough one. Since Yadi's here until 2010 anyway, I would think the organization needs to figure out what Anderson will be. He did alright for himself as a 20 year old AAer, but he's still got some work to do. I say the best option is to wait and see. From what I've heard, Anderson isn't a brutal catcher, plus he has more offensive potential in the long run than Molina. See what he develops into, have him backup Yadi for a season, likely 09, and then go from there.

So anyway, the answer is no, I wouldn't worry about an extension for Yadi this offseason.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 18, 2008 9:14 AM EST reply actions

this is a great exercise

but molina's value lies in his glove
keeping the other team's speed neutralized is where he makes his money

Come on 2009!

by benstl on Jan 18, 2008 9:19 AM EST reply actions

In the famous words of many actor wannabes

"What's my motivation?" I don't see any risk in going towards arb with Yadi and staying on a one-year deal for at least this cycle. Like AZ said, it is unlikely that Yadi's offense is going to get significantly better. There are probably not many teams, if any, who value him as highly as the Cardinals. It isn't like he is going to get pissed, hold a grudge, and get Albert to go postal.

I still like Yadi as a player, but the only way I go for a mult-year deal at this point is if I am sure it is a VERY GOOD businees deal.

The multi-year deal could always get done at the end of the season, but I think we need another season to evaluate his health and durability.

I do look forward to the projections on years and $$$$

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 18, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions

I think there's a risk...

I think it's safe to say we all expect Yadi to be at least close to last years numbers (.275/.340/.368) 6HR and 34 walks in 396 PA's...so (.270/.325/.350) is pretty reasonable.

What happens if he has a career year (.285/.356/.410) 12 HR's and 45 walks in 500 PA's would get him there - and wins the gold glove (which he should have done this year)?

Suddenly you've gone from 2,3,4,6 = 15 over four years to 1.2 (arbitration),4,6,8 = 19.2 over four years. I guess it's not much money, but when/if you're trying to move him after '09 that new teams looking at 2 years - $14 mil rather than 2 years - $10 mil.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Jan 18, 2008 9:42 AM EST up reply actions

I agree

that is one possible outcome. What happens if his knee is balky, or he gets yet another injury and he plays 80 games or less, hits .230/.300/.340? What is his arb number in that case? Or what if he has a year like that in 2009?

If I have to pay an extra $4.2M over four years to confirm that I have a successful, durable catcher I am OK with that. I think that is a better outcome than prematurely giving him a four-year deal based on the rosiest possible projections.

Now if signing Yadi to a long-term deal means there is no room on the payroll for the Aaron Miles of the world then I say sign him up!

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 18, 2008 8:58 PM EST up reply actions

quick question...

when you say "this offseason" do you mean the current one that we're in (07/08) or the one to follow this upcoming 2008 season (08/09)?

If it's the current one, I say, no, let's not worry about it. I'd like to see how '08 progresses, both with Yadi's performance, as well as Anderson's.

Now, if it's the offseason to follow this season... and things remain the same - his numbers, he improves, etc... I'd be willing to go 3 years, 10 million (3 mil per year with a million signing bonus as good faith $). That would take care of 1 year of free agency I believe, covering the '09, '10, and '11 seasons. By then, Yadi would be 28 or 29... I don't know if that's cheap or not... I thought it could be viewed as a nice raise - especially with the signing bonus. And if Anderson develops quicker than expected, and we need to use Yadi in a trade, it's a reasonable contract for another team to take on.

by SmashedAtoms on Jan 18, 2008 9:38 AM EST reply actions

Another thing.

When Yadi gets past thirty, is he going to be able to run at all? He is already a "slow plodding catcher" of the highest order now and in 5 years are you going to be able to move him around the bases? It is amazing how quick he can spring up and pounce on a pitch hit out in front of the plate and throw a runner out but yet can't run a lick on the bases.

by ridgesee on Jan 18, 2008 9:54 AM EST reply actions

Interesting topic

Here are a few things to think about other than his offense, which I think is likely to be at or slightly below league average for starting catchers, and defense, which we all know is superb:

He's just coming into his peak. If there's ever a time when you want to think seriously about a multi-year contract for a guy, it's for the years from about age 26 to 29. That's where he is.
If you think that baseball is going to continue to boom, a contract that looks ridiculously rich today can look like a real bargain by 2010, which increases your likelihood of moving him for something tasty at that time if you decide to. If you're expecting financial retrenchment, a generous contract today is a disincentive to later moves -- but then you simply have a better than average, though not great, catcher locked up for a few years. There are worse fates. To me this is a huge factor.
Something I haven't seen pointed out anywhere else is that with a 4-year contract, Molina will almost certainly be around after TLR retires. Having a bit of stability during the transition period (to Oquendo?) is a good thing.
Finally, he and Pujols are pals, right? Priority #1 for ANY personnel moves is keep Pujols around. Having friends on the team, and known to be staying with the team for a while, has gotta help.

All of these factors taken together would drive me to offer Molina a significantly more generous deal than his performance justifies. I'd say 4 years, $19M, with a club or possibly mutual option for the fifth. Five years guaranteed, and something like $23M, would almost be worth the risk of collapse.

Where does this leave Anderson, whom I'm quite high on? Dunno, but I'm delighted to have the problem. For one thing, he almost certainly doesn't arrive until 2009. For another, even then, he'll be best off spending one year as an understudy, unless he undergoes some freakish offensive transformation in the next year-plus. Finally, if the economic climate is favorable, Molina is an attractive enough catcher that I don't foresee any difficulty trading him if Anderson does turn out to be the next Johnny Bench, or even Ted Simmons.

by StanTheManFan on Jan 18, 2008 10:04 AM EST reply actions

The downsides

Locking Yadi up long term decreases both yadi and anderson's value. What team is going to give us value on anderson when we have no use for him and other teams know we have no use for him? The same applies if we try to trade yadi in 2 or 3 years because anderson's ready as we'll have 2 major league catchers - in a bind to get rid of one. That's not a position of strength.

I think the smart thing to do would be buy out his arb years + 1. That'd be 3 yrs I believe (give him 8 mill). It'd take away any uncertainty for both the team and yadi - avoiding the arb process, and it'd give anderson 2 more years in the minors + one mlb backup year. Then the cards can either trade anderson and resign molina, or let molina walk (offering arb) and get a draft pick for him while slotting in anderson for the next season.

by Birds on the Matt on Jan 18, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

let me also add

by going 3 years you have the ability to get a rather nice return for molina in trade in his final year if we want to go that route - he'll still be 28 and be ripe for a 1-yr rental at a very reasonable cost.

by Birds on the Matt on Jan 18, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions

As this is Yadi's

4th full year in the league, it's his first year of arbitration...to buy out arb + 1 would take four years.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Jan 18, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

not sure I agree with that reasoning

I don't see why having Yadi in a long term contract would diminish his trade value (assuming it's a realistic contract) or Anderson's trade value. If (as I hope) Anderson develops as a capable ML catcher with a better than average bat, the market for his services will be defined by the number of teams that need a capable ML catcher, not by the fact that the Cardinals might have two.

by madridbend on Jan 18, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

think of the negotiations

If the cards wait till they 2 mlb level cathers, they're negotiating from a weak position. What are they going to do with the 2nd one? They can't just walk away from the table. They need to get rid of one. They need to deal when they have options and the ability to walk away from a negotiation.

by Birds on the Matt on Jan 18, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

It all depends on the money.

The Cards are only in a weak position if they are paying both catchers as starters. Anderson will make less than an average free agent backup catcher. The Cards won't be in a position where they need to move one or the other for several years. If they stick with Molina and don't like the offers they are getting for Anderson, they can let him play as a backup and shop him as a ML ready starting catcher. They may even be able to increase his value by only playing him in favorable situations and artificially padding his numbers.

That said, I am not convinced that Anderson will be able to maintain his value, and wouldn't be upset to see him traded.

by Stanfan6 on Jan 18, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

Disagree...

I have to disagree with your assessment that having two ML catchers will weaken the Cardinals negotiating position, especially if those catchers are both locked up at a reasonable price for a couple of years or more at that point.

Look at what Atlanta got for Saltamacchia from Texas and they had both Saltamacchia and McCann playing at the ML level. It didn't appear that having two ML level catchers inhibited Atlanta's position. In fact I would say it enhanced it. Both players had proved they could play the position at the ML level.

Now I'm not saying that Yadi and Anderson are maybe quite the class of those two. However I think Yadi can continue to improve offensively by improving pitch selection which will lead to improvements in OBP and maybe SLG as suggested by Az and I think Anderson's defense will improve to rate both player's as average/slightly above for their position, which gives them value and the Cardinals flexibility when it comes to trading one of them.

by realbrit70 on Jan 18, 2008 3:02 PM EST up reply actions

What dos th8is team need?

Players whose offensive value lies mainly in batting average are risky, as it tends to fluctuate significantly from season to season more than most stats. A player whose "true" level of ability is a .250 average can hit .210 one year and .285 the next. This looks a lot like Molina's career.

For Molina to be more than an offensive millstone, he needs to hit for a pretty high average, and he has shown no ability to do this consistently. And even when he does, he brings little else to the table. Even last year, his best with the bat, he slugged .368--his career high!

Neutralizing the opposition running game is less important than it used to be, as most teams don't run much.

I think Molina can be an asset on a team with a good offense willing to take a hit at a position. But that is not the Cardinals. Basically, Pujols was an offensive asset, and that's it. The Cardinals' problem is they have no offense at SS, 2B, or C (and also last year at 3B and CF). Last year Duncan was almost exactly league average in LF, so he doesn't help make up for the other weaknesses. (Duncan .259/.354/.480; NL LF .278/.358/.478).

In a lineup with Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds and Walker all having good years, and solid contributions at 2B and SS, Molina is a valid option.

But we're not that team anymore.

I'd keep him around, but he doesn't need a long term contract.

by tarakas on Jan 18, 2008 10:12 AM EST reply actions

I just hope that TLR's current

contract isn't extended and that 2009 is in fact his last season as Cardinal manager. I don't want him to be the guy who makes the decision on how much playing time Anderson gets.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 18, 2008 10:55 AM EST reply actions

+1

I'd go so far as to say that I don't want Tony to be the guy that decides how much playing time ANY of our up-and-coming youngsters get.

For reference, see: Cairo, Miguel, Sept 2007.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 18, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

Pick-offs

I'm a dedicated stats guy, but I don't think it is possible to quantify how much the threat of the should-be-patented Molina-to-Pujols pickoff means to the Cards' defense.

I thought that I saw a BP article that ranked the teams offensively and defensively on extra bases taken, which could shed some insight, but I can't find such an article, if it ever existed.

Anyway, I posit that teams take smaller leads off first, less walking leads, and generally get later jumps against the Molina-Pujols Cards than they do against other teams, which should lead to less extra bases, more double plays, etc. That's over and above the number of baserunners those guys erase during the course of a season, which, while small in the grand scheme of things, is not insignificant.

I like Yadi's upside, and this is the first analysis that I have seen that analyzed his line drive rate and BABIP. Good stuff. Encouraging stuff. It's intereting that before 2007, BP's PECOTA system was down on Yadi's offensive potential in 2007, projecting him at 246/302/349, but up on his potential during his peak:

2008 .263 .322 .389
2009 .267 .332 .397
2010 .259 .324 .386
2011 .261 .323 .391

It will be interesting to see whether the 2008 PECOTA projections (due out in a few weeks, I would imagine) will goose those peak projections any higher based on Yadi's 2007 (which exceeded his PECOTA 80th percentile), or will just consider him to have reached his peak a year earlier and keep his peak projections roughly the same.

All that being said, I definitely wouldn't go over 3 years with Yadi, and would prefer to end up somewhere between $12M-$15M total, maybe with a team or mutual option for a fourth year. I suspect that Yadi will age before other catchers because he has more squatting mileage on knees than most catchers at his age, having been a regular at 22 instead of 24-25 like most, and there's always the chance of a catcher having a catastrophic injury.

by South Side Cards Fan on Jan 18, 2008 11:15 AM EST reply actions

Of course you offer him a

long-term contract! To LaRussa, catchers only have to catch well, not hit. Molina is defensively superb, ergo, he gets an "A" in the LaRussa scoring system. He is a nice spot for the club, too. They can lock him in at a reasonable price and trade him/release him ala Matheny when the time is right--after he teaches Anderson how to catch in the big leagues.

Plus, the point about Pujols made above is important. They should put his pool guy on the roster is he wants.

by Red in Chicago on Jan 18, 2008 11:18 AM EST reply actions

weird

I've never once heard Tony LaRussa say his catcher only need to catch, and not hit.

It's not like MLB is loading with great offensive catchers--and, FYI, Anderson isn't one himself.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Jan 18, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

Depends on what you consider "great"

Not a great hitter perhaps, but a great hitter for being a catcher.

by saladdays on Jan 18, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions

In molina's

first year, La Russa did state that Molina was going to be his catcher even if he hit .150. Thats close to saying "his catcher only needs to catch"

by ridgesee on Jan 18, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, I remember that, and

I would say that statement is a strong data point in the argument against the idea that TLR doesn't like young players.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 18, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions

but he only said that

in the first year when .150 looked like a ceiling for Yadi. He didn't want him to press. That said, I do think TLR is totally content with the production he is getting from Yadi. I doubt that would be case if he was hitting .150 though.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 18, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions

I think TLR's attitude is that he

can live with an offensive zero as long as he gets the good defense. But he's been "living with" bad offense behind the plate during his entire tenure in STL. So my fear is that the thing that he once viewed as "tolerable" has now become "normal" to him. God, I hope Moz hasn't given up on looking for catchers who can hit; but in my more paranoid moments I'm afraid TLR already has.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 18, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

BABIP

Players who are as deathly slow as Molina coupled with a high GB rate are going to have unusually low BABIP.

I'd argue that his BABIP for '07 actually showed him to be quite lucky. From memory, for whatever that's worth, I seem to remember quite a few groundballs finding holes for him.

To answer your question, no. I'd take it year to year with him and hope Anderson continues to develop defensively and power wise. He's only first year arb anyway. You have plenty of time to make that decision over the next couple years.

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 18, 2008 11:19 AM EST reply actions

I guess...

it's either in the eye of the beholder, or lies somewhere in between...cause I seem to remember a lot of hard hit outs in 2006. Something commented on regularly by Shannon during radio broadcast.

What are his LD/GB/FB rates?

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Jan 18, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

eBABIP

Expected BABIP (eBABIP) is a function primarily of line drive rate. A rough rule of thumb is to add .120 to the LD rate. For Molina last year, that gives a eBABIP of .339, well above the actual BABIP of .299. Part of the difference may be his slowness, but he wasn't lucky in '07.

8/13/79- Lou Brock 3000 hits

by lb3000 on Jan 18, 2008 7:10 PM EST up reply actions

Yadi Contract

I think that the Cardinals should try to get him to come to terms with something like this:

2008 - $750K
2009 - $875K
2010 - $1M
2011 - $2M
2012 - $3M

I think that there should be incentives in there as well. If he makes All-Star games, is World Series MVP, etc. like normal; but also have other incentives as well. One such incentive would be a 25K increase for every .010 increase in his OBP over .340. (So if his OBP is .350 next year, he would make $775K instead of $750K, if it is .368 it would be $800K instead of $750K.)

Anyway, That is where I see it. Remember, he is only entering his 5th season and his age 25 season this year. I looked up other catchers that compare well to Yadi to see what they were making around then and these numbers checked out fairly well.

stlfan

by stlfan on Jan 18, 2008 11:19 AM EST reply actions

Sorry, forgot something

I guess that puts my total contract #s at a 5-year, $7.725 million incentive-laden contract.

stlfan

p.s. - I would also have in there something about the number of pickoffs he gets and/or the steal % against him.

by stlfan on Jan 18, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

Unless Yadi is poorly represented. . .

or giving a huge discount to the Cards, there is no way he would agree to that. That contraact is far below market and he could likely get more in arbitration.

by South Side Cards Fan on Jan 18, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions

you

would have to triple all that to get Yadi to even talk to you.

I would personally take Yadi year by year. Hopefully the walk rates keeps up.

by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Jan 18, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

the player's union

won't let you make performance-based incentives. You can give incentives for all-star game appearances, series or league mvp, number of plate appearances or innings pitched etc, but you can't do batting average or obp.

the bums will always lose...

by SleepyCA on Jan 18, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

Skip the long-term deal

for one year, let's see if he can play a full season in 2008, and look at long-term in the 2008-2009 offseason. That's my vote.

TSF

by TedSimmonsFan on Jan 18, 2008 12:13 PM EST reply actions

Agreed

Don't want to commit when we have Brian Anderson waiting in the wings.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jan 18, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions

A long term deal...

doesn't necessarily commit us to Yadi, it only commits Yadi to a certain salary for the duration of the contract. We can still trade him at anytime during the deal, and would probably have an easier time moving him if he has a set contract and his first year of FA is set.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Jan 18, 2008 7:00 PM EST up reply actions

AZ,

I have a seizure disorder(which is controlled by meds, btw), and stuff like the "free-hand" camera-style of cinematography can cause problems for me, too. I wasn't going to go see the movie, anyway, but now I know I won't be putting it on my Netflix queue in 6 months, either.

"The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it."

by cardsrul on Jan 18, 2008 12:29 PM EST reply actions

cardsrul

not to make light of your problem, but do you have any problems seeing mary hart on tv?

(in case you are not a seinfeld fan, kramer would go into seizures anytime mary hart from entertainment tonight was on)

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Jan 18, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

No,

I just concentrate on those million dollar legs. ;-)

"The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it."

by cardsrul on Jan 18, 2008 8:08 PM EST up reply actions

nice

i am glad you took that as i intended

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Jan 19, 2008 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

I think it's worth stongly considering

I argued last week that catcher defensive value might be overstated, but that's not to suggest Molina doesn't have nice value. I would not be upset to see a deal with him under contract through 2011.

I project nice things for Anderson, but even the most optimistic should recognize the possibility that it might not work out. Signing Molina protects from that. Even if it does work, a year of sharing duty would not be a bad way to break Anderson in and make an informed evaluation. And as people here have said, it makes Molina more marketable as long as the terms are reasonable.

You have to give Molina something in exchange for controlling him through 2011. I'd assume something like 3M-3M-4.5M-5.5M could get his and his agent's attention and at least form something to negotiate off of.

by Merry CRasmus on Jan 18, 2008 12:29 PM EST reply actions

Yadi Batting 7th, pitcher 8th

Is it possible that yadi got pitched around when he batted in front of the pitcher (after Aug 3)?

By my calculation, when ym batted 7th and pitchers were batting 8th, Yadi walked in 13/87 p.a's for a .149 rate- including 3 intentional walks (only 3 ibb's all year).

When ym batted 7th and non-pitchers were batting 8th, Yadi walked in 15/149 pa's (.101).

Just wondering if ym's eye improved, or is dependent upon the "pitcher batting 8" strategy?

Notably, YM hit .329 in the 7 hole after 8/3, and .280 in the 7 hole before 8/3. I don't have a theory on that...

by baked mcbride on Jan 18, 2008 12:43 PM EST reply actions

What source did you use?

If there is a way to do that kind of double-situational split without actually looking at box scores I'd love to know what it is. The only tool I know of is Pinto's Day-by-day database, which says he batted .298 from 8/3 to the end of the season, with a 6.4% BB/PA rate (10 BB's in 154 PA's) and an .800 OPS. That's all his PA's though, not just PA's in the 7 hole.

Prior to 8/3 he batted .259 with a 9.9% BB/PA and a .648 OPS. So he walked a lot more but hit worse before 8/3. Obviously we're using different data sets though.

the bums will always lose...

by SleepyCA on Jan 18, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

see reply below

somehow missed the reply button...

by baked mcbride on Jan 18, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions

Speaking of Contracts...

Goold says Ankiel has been signed, avoiding arbitration.

http://tinyurl.com/2xyhs3

by pitchingandefense on Jan 18, 2008 1:44 PM EST reply actions

Ankiel Signing

Also mentioned here.

http://tinyurl.com/26uj8z

by pitchingandefense on Jan 18, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

just a couple of box scores

I had to check the box scores to find the initial pitcher/8th date. the baseball reference site shows each player's day-by-day stats, including a Bor column. Filtered yadi's records for Bor = 7th, then summed PA, AB, H, BB, IBB.

Not very sophisticated. Also, I counted PA's where yadi batted 7th and the pitcher's spot was 8th- but didn't subtract PA's where a PH appeared 8th, or where an earlier switch put a non-pitcher in the 8th spot.

by baked mcbride on Jan 18, 2008 1:44 PM EST reply actions

Joe Sheehan Seal of Approval

For what it's worth, Sheehan also listed Yadi as a "strong candidate to improve [his] performance dramatically in 2008."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7053

No details, but I'd assume his reasoning is also based on the jump in walk rate.

by bgodar on Jan 18, 2008 2:15 PM EST reply actions

A Few Things to Consider

I'm relatively new to sabermetrics and am more comfortable evaluating players by sight. While I certainly think the statistical approach has a lot to offer, I still feel like there are certain things that about a player like Yadi that they often fail to address (or maybe the stats that do address them are rarely discussed here).

Primarily, I'm thinking about his effect on the pitching staff. I've not seen any attempt at a comparison of Yadi to other catchers in this respect, but I find it hard to imagine there being enough of a sample size that didn't have overwhelming conflating factors.

But when I watch Yadi, I see the smoothest and best reciever I've ever seen. I'm not talking about his overall performance, but rather the way he actually catches the ball. His effortless handling of pitches can be very reassuring to pitchers and improve their confidence.

He is also a great framer of the ball. He will get his pitchers several extra strikes a ballgame that lesser catchers won't. Again how do you quantify this and its effect on games.

His arm does more than just cut down stolen bases and pick people off as pointed out by "South Side Cards Fan." Again, this effect on the running game also can effect the pitching staff. His ability allows them not to preoccupy themselves with the runners and concentrate on the batter without fearing that the opposing team will run wild.

While his ability at blocking balls is not as outstanding as the rest of his defense, I would still say he is average to above average. I also think he will be well above average in the coming years, as he shows flashes of that ability and mainly lacks consistency. But, he will not become the machine that Matheny was. In short he is not a great liability that is on pitchers minds in this respect and may continue to improve.

I know some pitchers don't like how often he comes out to them on the mound, but I think they are in the minority. Regardless, I've always believed that even those that don't like it often benefit from a catcher who knows when to come out and talk. As a former catcher, I like how he handles the staff in this respect.

I could go on, but this is very long already. I love the site. I look forward to seeing what the VEB thinks of these observations and to hear if there are attempts to quantify observations like these.

by fltfire on Jan 18, 2008 3:57 PM EST reply actions

Nice comments from a former backstop

So does that add you to the camp of sign him long, or year to year?

by Birds on the Bat on Jan 18, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

Signing

Honestly it's hard to say. It would depend largely on what they could get from other teams for Yadi or Anderson as well as what kind of deal they could get Yadi to sign.

I'd love to lock him into about a 4 year deal that is reasonable given the current market (you all will be better at putting that in perspective than I am). That would allow the cardnials to see how anderson develops and what the market is for both of them.

I would be very happy with Yadi for the next five years. I'm not sold that Anderson will be a premeir offensive catcher in the big leagues and I think he'll have to do that in order to unseat Yadi.

by fltfire on Jan 18, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

yadi's

stats should allow stl to go to arb again before 09 affordably, and resign long term before 2010 affordably. anderson's bat should be an upgrade over, bennett, stinnett and larue. but lets not stop there. a 3B bat with at least "near average" catching skills in the spiezio role, would free both anderson's bat as a pinch hitter on yadi starts, and yadi as a defensive replacement for anderson. if there were DL time for either (2007), we wouldn't have to settle for 61 starts of stinnett and bennett types while we scramble for a catcher to acquire. in a pennent race, this could affect our outcome. lets fortify the affordable positions, since we appear to not be willing to pay funny money to FA's, recently.

by hard9fan on Jan 18, 2008 4:12 PM EST reply actions

What's the downside

to giving Yadi a long-term contract? He's under the team's control for 3 years anyway so it wouldn't hurt to buy out those years as well as maybe 1 year of free agency. Like others, I'm a big fan of Bryan Anderson but that shouldn't preclude us from extending Yadi. Buying out his 1st year of free agency only makes him a more attractive trade chip should we decide to insert Anderson into the starting lineup and ship Molina out for some other valuable piece.

He's young and cheap. He may get hurt but that's true of all catchers. He doesn't seem to exhibit any extra proclivity toward injury. Lock him up and let's hope Anderson progresses to the point where we can trade Yadi in a year or two for something valuable.

by chuckb on Jan 18, 2008 4:28 PM EST reply actions

Wait and see

I see little incentive to lock him up THIS year. By waiting one more year we can gather numerous additional data points which make Yadi's true value that much more clear:

We will be able to see if he continues to improve his walk rate and OPS, or if his offense regresses.
We give his heir-apparent Anderson one more year in the minors to better gauge his MLB impact.
We will avoid the (arguably) small chance of locking him up early and then losing him for an extended amount of time due to injury <cough cough Chris Carpenter cough>.

I'd vote for arbitration this year, and then consider locking him up for 3 or 4 years NEXT off-season.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 18, 2008 6:13 PM EST reply actions

There is a big difference.........

Between signing Carp early and signing Yadi early, starting pitchers are much more like to get hurt.....

by Calhoun on Jan 18, 2008 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

Baseball Prospectus has a stat

they call "MORP" -- Marginal Value Above Replacement. (Don't ask me how they get MORP out of that.) They define it thus: "For 2007, a player's MORP is estimated as follows:
1200000*(WARP^1.5) + 380000" -- where WARP is their usual "Wins Above Replacement Player." It's interesting, for purposes of thinking about Yadi's contract, to look at his MORP and those of some other catchers. They haven't released the stats for 2008 yet, but going into 2007, here's how they predicted Molina's MORPs for a few years:
2007     $7,575,000
2008     $10,925,000
2009     $13,350,000
2010     $12,300,000
2011     $10,900,000
That's a total of $45M of value in those five years -- and that was calculated before his (possibly transient) offensive improvement in 2007.

Some BP predicted MORPs for other catchers over the same five years, followed by what those other guys made in 2007 (per baseball-reference.com) so that it's Name, MORP, salary:
Joe Mauer: $150.8M(!!), $3.75M(!!)
Brian McCann: $113.0M(!), $0.4M(!)
Russell Martin: $85.2M, $0.4M
Victor Martinez: $73.3M, $3.2M
Ronny Paulino: $48.7M, $0.4M
Jason Kendall: $31.9M, $12.9M(!!)
Michael Barrett: $29.1M, $4.5M
Jason Varitek: $27.9M, $11.0M
Ivan Rodriguez: $26.7M, $10.6M
A. J. Pierzynski: $26.1M, $5.5M
Johnny Estrada: $22.0M, $3.4M
Jose Molina (Yadi's bro): $17.1M, $1.4M
Bengie Molina (Yadi's bro): $15.9M, $4.0M
Paul Lo Duca: $15.4M, $6.3M
Jason LaRue (for laughs): $10.8M (ecchhh!), $5.2M

Note that the MORPs look weird because of the formula (and general BP) bias that real superstars are enormously, non-linearly valuable. (You'd be amazed at El Hombre's MORP value.) If you ignore the guys who were getting rookie-level pay in 2007 (Martin, Paulino, McCann), and also take Varitek and Pudge with a grain of salt on the grounds that their poor MORPs are because they're predicted not to last much longer, it looks like $4M is the going rate for an established but not star-level major-league catcher, based on MORP. Most of the guys at that MORP level (again, excluding Pudge and Tek, whom the formula deprecates because of age) are guys that I wouldn't even think of preferring over Yadi.

All of this is a long way of saying that I don't think $4M/year is outlandish at all for the guy. He's not superstar level (and just wait and see what Mauer and McCann get when they reach arbitration), but he's still worth enough that the team should jump on the arbitration figure he just submitted and parlay it into a 3- or 4-year contract.

by StanTheManFan on Jan 18, 2008 11:26 PM EST reply actions

Correction

As with the others, it's $45M MORP for the "peak" years. BP's explanation of this is ... complicated. It doesn't change the basic point: for non-superstar catchers with their best years ahead of them, Molina's asking price is normal, and they think he's at the upper end of non-superstar catchers.

by StanTheManFan on Jan 19, 2008 10:58 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting discussion between

Cards Win Series and AZ. I have long believed that Yadi is a very underrated player who should still get better. I mentioned the batting stance thing a few days ago not because I felt that that was a key to his improvement but because it apppears to be a good thing for all hitters to adopt an essential stance that seems to work and then tweak it. Yadi has seemed to make more sweeping changes in his stance than most players and that has seemed to be counterproductive. As both protagonists would admit, I suppose, that hypothesis needs to be tested over more plate appearances. The 1200 plate appearance evidence that what we've seen is what we'll get needs to be examined also. I agree that Yadi will not become our cleanup hitter but I think improvement over the next few years should be an expectation. The 1200 plate appearances have all come before the age of 25 while being overused at a demanding position by a manager who has only expected defense from him. He has never had a good backup so he has played hurt at times, been put back in the lineup after injuries very quickly and has seldom been taken out of games because we never have a third catcher. Under these circumstances I would expect that his offensive potential would develop more slowly than players at other positions. This year, if Larue gives us solid backup and Yadi stays healthy, will tell us a lot. Finally the value of pitch calling and overall catching defense has been alluded to by all of us in recent discussions and would be an interesting one to examine in detail in a future thread.

by easy on Jan 19, 2008 10:19 AM EST reply actions