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weekend discussion: ol' reliable

echoing the front office's recent hint that they're looking for another rotation swingman, derrick goold aptly observed yesterday that the cardinal rotation might be looking at an innings shortage for the second straight year. he rightly points out that the team is counting on two guys (mulder and clement) with rebuilt shoulders --- neither has pitched at a passable level since 2005, and either (or both) could get bombed out of the rotation by memorial day. accordingly, goold proposes that the cardinals should look into jeff weaver, who has a clean health record and generally has been reliable in the national league. his argument is that mere reliability can go a long way in the flimsy nl central --- and weaver offers more reliability than the current reinforcements, who include anthony reyes (if he's not traded), brad thompson, todd wellemeyer, mike parisi, and blake hawksworth.

i'm not convinced that weaver offers significantly greater short-term reliability than the options already on hand; anthony reyes has outpitched him the last couple of years. but if you think reyes is out of chances in this organization and the other pitchers aren't key parts of the future --- and those would be reasonable assessments --- then a healthy veteran on a one-year deal might help prop things up in 2008 without hurting the imperative to develop good young talent. whether or not you agree with those premises, just go with them for a moment: if you could get any available free-agent pitcher on a one-year deal, who would you sign? remember, the sought-after commodity is reliability. goold's not looking for somebody who can pitch at the front of the rotation nor a guy with lots of development potential, just somebody who's a good bet to stay off the dl and keep the team competitive in a majority of his starts.

they already missed one good opportunity in josh towers, who signed with the rockies (with an option for 2009) for $1.8m. the best remaining option in my opinion is jon lieber, for whom i've been campaigning since october. he did get hurt last year but the injury was to his leg, not his arm; he has been at least a league-average starting pitcher every year since 1996 and has rock-steady FIPs. these days he's generally good for 25 starts.

others who are still available include josh fogg, mark hendrickson, livan hernandez, odalis perez, brett tomko, and steve trachsel. time's running out on all these guys, and pitchers / catchers are due to report in a month; any / all are gonna have to settle for short-term deals and / or low dollars. so take your pick --- if the cards could get any of them on a short and / or cheap deal, who would you like to see in st louis this summer?

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pick'em
among the choices offered and without spending time running down the other options, i'd say lieber is the most rational choice.

by sportsman on Jan 12, 2008 10:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Weaver
It's not based on stats, just his smidgen of success with the Cards (read: Duncan) before.  It's a gut feeling that he'd do well.  

Based on Goold's criteria, though, I was surprised to see him not tout Livan.  If reliability is your main criteria, he'd seem to be your guy.  You know with him you are going to get lots of innings, lots of pitches, but a high ERA.  

Lieber is also not a bad pick, but the number of ex-Cubs on the Cards is beginning to scare me already.  To my knowledge the 2006 team had no ex Cubs on the playoff roster.    :)

by raisin on Jan 12, 2008 10:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think we got really lucky with him
and I don't want to chance it again.  I think we'd fail.

by sdrone on Jan 12, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well....
I would vote for Lieber or Fogg.

As a side note I was at ESPN looking at the STL Cardinals transactions page and I have to wonder...

what is the fascination with signing so many "cut" Pittsburgh Pirates.  Not that it really matters, but we sure have signed a lot of them lately.

by Pujols for MVP on Jan 12, 2008 10:48 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

A guy that hasn't been discussed much...
Shawn Chacon would be my choice, just because of the flexibility that he offers.  If he's not starting he's a very effective reliever, and he's also someone who has closed in the past, so the Cardinals would have an experienced closer in case something happens to Izzy.  He has an absolutely rubber arm which reminds me a little bit of Julian Tavarez when he was with the Cardinals.  He could throw a lot of innings in middle relief and barring injury could start for a stretch if needed.

The last time he was used in a rotation was 2005 with the Rockies and Yankees and he put up a 131 ERA+ with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.  That's better than anything Weaver or any of the other scrap heap pitchers have done in the last three years.  Not sure about the price though.  He made $3.8 million last year setting up for Pittsburgh and that was an pre-arb settlement.  He'd be worth kicking the tires on though.

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 12, 2008 10:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

One goalie's opinion...
but Livan Hernandez is pretty close to the definition of "reliable innings-eater". He's made at least 30 starts a year every year since 1998; and thrown at least 200 innings each year (save for two seasons when he pitched 199 and 2/3 innings... close enough to suit me!)

It's entirely possible Livan's in his "decline phase"; but Busch III (like whatever they call the BOB in Phoenix these days) is pitcher-friendly. Yeah, he'll be 33; yeah, his WHIP is approaching 1.6; and yeah, his strikeouts were down last year.

But for short-time and cheap, he's a darn good option.

Personally, I wouldn't be interested in Dream Weaver... the Cards rescued his career once, and he took off for more money. Why go there again?

The very thought of Brett Tomko or Odalis Perez makes me shudder... Yecch!

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Jan 12, 2008 10:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

But
won't Livan be looking for at least 2 years? Negating him from this discussion

by The Butcher on Jan 12, 2008 11:04 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Livan
I doubt that Hernandez will be available for just one year.  Of course, the Cardinals could give him a longer contract and then trade him, which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world...

Of the other choices, though, I suppose I would take Lieber.  Given my druthers, though, I think I would just prefer to see more of our minor league talent get a chance to take a turn or two in the rotation.  Probably not going to happen, though.  

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 12, 2008 11:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I would take
a shot at Weaver, mostly because he was better in the NL than the AL and has already worked well with Duncan, Sr.  Other than that, I would pick Lieber.  But I am with The Ol Goaler on the matter of Tomko and Perez (especially Perez) - they make me shudder!

by cardsgirl95 on Jan 12, 2008 11:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I say bring back Julian Travarez!
He starts, he relieves, and he's a crazy man.  How fun would that be?  He's only hurt when he punches things, so keep punchable things out of his way and he'll be okay.  He would add personality to the team, and they need that.  They are all such a stoic bunch-I want to see some joy, some wild and crazy passion on the field.  Someone who has a look of "pinch me, I'm playing baseball for a living!"  Except Mr. LaRussa would banish anyone like that from the team....I can dream, though.

I'd rather pass on Mr. Weaver.  I read somewhere that Scott Boras thinks he's worth $12-$14 million a year to some NL team.  Yikes!

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 12, 2008 11:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Punchable things not able to be moved...
  1. Tony LaRussa
  2. Dave Duncan
  3. Stan the Man Statue
  4. Fred Bird
  5. Tony LaRussa's ego
"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 12, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Reyes Iron Bill, Albert Pujols......
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 12, 2008 6:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Love the ones your with
I'm just not seeing any of the current FA's as a legitimate upgrade over what we have. Even if you have to rotate Welle, Thompson, Reyes for a whole bunch of starts, you're probably getting the same production. The question is ... Is signing Jeff Weaver better than a 5th starter by committee? Personally I don't think so. I also don't want to get on the Matty Mo bandwagon, but I believe he is a great option because of his contract. We shouldn't have to give up much in terms of talent. So if I was forced to choose between Matty Mo and these current FA's, I'm going with Morris.

PS I know Morris $ does not equal his production, but it's not a contract that shackles us for future seasons.

Here I Am, Rock You Like a Hurricane

by OKCardsfan on Jan 12, 2008 11:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

He shall be Livan
Livan Hernandez is the guy that seems like a really nice fit to me.  

He's dependable:
     Hernandez has pitched 200-plus innings in 30-     plus games started in each season dating    
     back to 2000...cbssportsline

He's over a .500 pitcher for his career, plus I can picture him having a solid year for a team that is in the market for stability.  

The biggest drawback I see with Livan is his reluctance to sign a one-year deal, and if so, he'll find a bigger payday out of the Lou.

by mwinf12 on Jan 12, 2008 11:49 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

do nothing is the best option
When you are talking about expensive league average arms (at best), more is not better.  Why do the Cards think they are in a better place by adding one of the overpaid slugs now on the market?  They already have "swingmen" on their staff.  Is not Ryan Franklin a former starter?  Did not Wellmeyer do an admirable job as a starter last season?  If we have depth in one pitching department, it is right-handed relief both at the major-league and minor league levels.  Wellmeyer and Franklin's middle relief rolls can be replaced from within the organization (if they were moved to the rotation).  Adding an expensive slug makes no sense in my book.  Why?  To placate Tony or Dunc because they can never have enough veteran slug arms?

Mo, don't make a move just to make a move.  Often times the best move is none at all.

by jjray on Jan 12, 2008 11:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Probably not a fair option but...
I like the idea of trading for Daniel Cabrera.  I'd say the Os are just about done with him.  Maybe a package centering around Anthony Reyes?  Seems to me that he would be the mother of all projects.  A guy who as absolutely dynamite stuff but might just be a tease.  My outlook is more long term though, I don't think we should necessarily be playing for 2008 but looking for ways we can build value.  I think that you could get Cabrera and potentially build up his value fairly significantly....

by Lawless on Jan 12, 2008 12:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: More on Rolen / Glaus
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7665630?MSNHPHMA

Glaus wants to escape the turf
Rolen wants to escape the russa

by mwinf12 on Jan 12, 2008 12:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Anyone know ...
what Glaus glove is like?

by 2ndEdition on Jan 12, 2008 1:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It could be my imagination...
But didn't Scott Rolen want to leave Philly due to the turf?  I can imagine the Sky Dome's field is better than the old Vet's field (a layer of spikes Mega Man style would be better than the old Vet's field), but is he that desperate to leave St. Louis? :(

by Fro Jackson on Jan 12, 2008 1:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I thought
the issues were he didn't like the Phillies front office and Larry Bowa

by nmstar on Jan 12, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
That was also an issue, if I recall correctly, but I swear I remember reading somewhere (or hearing in an interview) that he hated the Vet's field and was having back issues as a result of playing a lot there.

by Fro Jackson on Jan 12, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, with all the time he's missed
b/c of the shoulder, we forget that Scotty's got some long-standing knee issues too ... isn't one of his knees almost sans cartilage?

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 12, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Trade & Health
I am less worried about his glove than his health. I have been a jogger for several years, with a hand full of marathons under my belt, and any time a baseball player has severe enough foot injuries to limit their playing time, I am concerned. That is because almost all foot related injuries have a strong chance to become chronic.Moving to grass from an astro-turf surface is inconsiquential if the condition is already advanced enough to cause a loss of playing time. Remember, he is not like you and I out for a Saturday run: Glaus has already undergone skilled training and treatments, and if the condition persists into this season it's elimination is unlikely. (See same caution vis a vie Albert). This is not to say the deal is a bad one. But it could come down to a trade of one damaged goods player for another. Even at that I rather like the deal as: 1) we have gotten at least marginally younger, 2) we should have saved a bit of $, 3) we have added some on-base % + power to the lineup. It's not a world beater but it could help us, especially since it eliminated (I assume) a year of financial committment.

by jimmyv on Jan 12, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Don't forget that McGwire
had some chronic foot problems before he came to STL, but I seem to recall him having a few good games for us.  Let's home Glaus' troubles have been similar.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 12, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd pass on all of them.
but for some reason I feel like they're going to get Fogg based on some sort of "good reputation" thing he started getting last season.
Acquire some runs... next year!

by madding on Jan 12, 2008 10:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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