community projection results: matt clement

by lboros on Jan 10, 2008 8:17 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

before we get to the clement numbers, a bit of news; the cards hired gary larocque as special ass't to the GM. larocque spent the last decade in the mets' organization, running the draft and farm system for most of that tenure. he got busted down a rank in september 2005 season amid a big front-office shakeup caused by the owners' dissatisfaction over the farm system's performance --- odd timing, in that homegrown products jose reyes, david wright, and aaron heilman all stepped forward as big-league contributors that year. there's a bit of discussion about his role with the mets over at Metsblog; check the comments thread.

other items:

the cubs' ZIPS projections are up; in szymborski's view the cubs "aren't an elite organization, but I think they're still the best in the Central and don't have any gaping holes. . . . When I look at the roster, I feel like there are only a few players that Ed Wade would sign for the Astros, which is a Very Good Thing."
idle speculation: according to the sf chronicle, the giants' negotiations with pedro feliz have run aground, which might cause them to "intensify trade talks for Scott Rolen, Joe Crede or any other third baseman who might be available."
el alberto has an award named after him.
dave cameron of USS Mariner breaks down the proposed adam jones for erik bedard trade and concludes: bad move for the mariners. jones is seattle's version of colby rasmus, so mentally substitute his name into the article in place of jones' and you have a cogent case for why the cards ought not to consider a trade of that type.

and now the moment you've all been waiting for: VEB's projection of matt clement. we had 88 projectors, one of the largest forecasting contingents ever on this site. here's our line, compared to those of other projection systems (listed in ascending era order):

	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	W	L	ERA	WHIP
b james	15	95	89	43	82	10	6	5	4.17	1.389
CHONE	13	74	76	31	55	8	--	--	4.38	1.446
VEB	24	142	141	60	112	17	9	9	4.48	1.421
PECOTA	14	92	98	39	65	10	5	5	4.91	1.489
marcels	n/a	67	72	29	49	7	4	4	4.97	1.507

i can't find a ZIPS forecast for this player; i've got an e-mail in to dan szymborski and will add that to the table when he responds. the PECOTA forecast comes from last year's set of projections (the new ones aren't out yet) and i believe is indexed to fenway park; take it with a grain of salt. i include it only because clement hasn't pitched at all since that projection appeared; the numbers might not change all that much when PECOTA is updated for 2008. one final PECOTA caveat --- that projection assumes 11 relief appearances in addition to the 14 starts.

the comparison shows our projection to be wildly optimistic re the quantity of clement's pitching, if not the quality. i went back and compared our projection to my year-old review of rotator-cuff returnees; that, too, shows that we're counting on a lot from clement. very few pitchers returning from this surgery have ever posted a line like the one we're projecting for clement. it's not unprecedented, but it's uncommon.

however accurate our projection turns out to be, it as at the very least an internally consistent one. i plugged our numbers in to tangotiger's generic FIP formula; for those not familiar with the concept, FIP yields an estimate of a pitcher's era based on nothing more than homers, walks, strikeouts, and innings pitched. clement's FIP, based on our projected component numbers, is . . . . 4.48, identical to our projected era. right on the button. ah, the wisdom of crowds.

finally, the quintessential projector for matt clement was one of VEB's oldest posters, glennrwordman:

	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	W	L	ERA	WHIP
VEB	24	142	141	60	112	17	9	9	4.48	1.421
wordman	28	143	153	60	98	17	9	9	4.54	1.492

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Comments

Interesting debate on LaRocque

The guy seems to have brought in some big time talent. Most of it was then traded away, and the Metropolitans' fan base seems to be taking it out on Mr. Larocque, rather than Mr. Minaya. I think he seems like a very nice hire for this organisation. Colour me at least mildly enthused.

By the way, did anyone else who checked out that MetsBlog site find the nesting format less than friendly to the eye? I didn't care for it. Maybe it's just different from what I'm used to.

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 10, 2008 8:40 AM EST reply actions

Agree

The nesting format was difficult to follow. But you may be right, maybe it seemed that way because it is different than what we are used to here. Also, not knowing the posters, I had trouble discerning who was sarcastic and who was straight up in their opinions. But, on the surface, he seems like a good hire. Time will tell.

by cardsgirl95 on Jan 10, 2008 8:50 AM EST up reply actions

If nothing else

it's a fresh set of eyes on roster and maybe he knows about some Met prospects they undervalue that we can get on the cheep ala Walt and Oakland although they were mostly vets.
Agree on the Mets blog syle, hard to follow. Makes me once again thank the baseball gods for VEB.

by That's a Winner on Jan 10, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

Wow, that IP projection is

more than 40 percent above the next-highest. It seems like most of our community projections have been reasonable close to the other systems'. Is this our most out-of-whack projection ever?

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 10, 2008 9:31 AM EST reply actions

Don't forget the labrum

Labral repairs complicate matters to be sure. I'm optimistic because Clement rehabbed for an entire season, but, like I said in my projection, I just can't expect him to have the same stuff that he had before, especially considering his mechanics.

by silent_bob on Jan 10, 2008 9:33 AM EST reply actions

Clement had the double-whammy

Clement had a 6-hour surgery to repair the damage to the labrum and the rotator cuff. This is largely unprecedented in terms of returning to pitch again.

Many pitchers recover fine from labrum tears (see Carp, Izzy). Others don't do as well (see Morris). Rotator cuff tears are much, much more threatening to a pitcher's career. A full tear means you are almost certainly done.

The two together? I honestly cannot imagine that Clement will ever be effective again. That said, he'd still likely be an improvement over Kip Wells.

by Hungry Jack on Jan 10, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

Injuries

Always tough to project after an injury. The Games started is the big discrepancy, but who projected Carp's number of games or innings pitched correctly last year. The interesting part is how close the projectors are on the effectiveness of those innings.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Jan 10, 2008 11:06 AM EST reply actions

Who you callin' old?

Quintessential=utterly average?

I think he's going to last longer than most people think (fear).

I am guessing that he will become more of a pitch-to-contact guy, urged on by Dunc, and helped by the Birds' IF D. Sometimes, when his stuff eludes him, the contact will wind up over the fence. I also figured on a little less than an average of 5 1/3 per start. Which I think is reasonable.

I also think, despite the injury, there's still ~talent~ there, which is not necessarily the case with a lot of #4/5 guys, which is all he's expected to be.

And since I'm here, I can't tell you all how much I've learned from being here from nearly the beginning. I don't post a lot, primarily because my time to crunch numbers is limited, (and I don't wanna sound like a damn fool) but my understanding of the team I like has been immensely enriched by being on here since Eden.

by glennrwordman on Jan 10, 2008 11:09 AM EST reply actions

quintessential

from dictionary.com:

quin· tes· sence [kwin-tes-uhns]
-noun

the pure and concentrated essence of a substance.
the most perfect embodiment of something

and did i say you were one of the "oldest" posters? stupid grammar checker; that was supposed to be "one of the first posters" . . . . .

by lboros on Jan 10, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

No offense taken

...at all! Just in this case, I DID embody the average. But quintessential is ~much~ nicer: "Here Lies the Mortal Remains of glennrwordman. He was Quintessential" vs. "He was...Average"!

Albert Pujols is the Quintessential 1st baseman. (the most perfect embodiment of something). Ben Broussard is average. Got it!

As far as the old thing...not necessarily old, but, not young anymore, either!

Cheers...

by glennrwordman on Jan 10, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

quintessential

reminds me of a great movie...

Bill: 'He was just being the quintessential Gambini!'
Stan: 'There goes the quintessential Norton.'

I'd rather my sister become a prostitute than my brother become a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Jan 10, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

Moz

This has been a rather uninspiring offseason for players on the field for 2008, but I like what he has been doing in the additions to the front office. He had earlier beefed up the amateur scouting departments internationally, and now domestically.

If we can't improve our 2008 big league roster, I hope he goes out and finds the best minor league coaches and instructors money can buy and spends some there. And then takes the BEST players available in the draft.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Jan 10, 2008 11:10 AM EST reply actions

Agreed

So far the changes in the front office seem positive. Time will tell. But you have to like the skills sets that he's brought aboard - seems like we have almost all the important aspects covered: domestic amateur scouting, asian scouting, latin america (isn't that Luhnow?), contract negotiations, etc.

I'm encouraged, much more so than the day that Antonetti decided to re-up with the Indians.

by airhad on Jan 10, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

9 - 9

Yous alls craaaaaaaaaaaaaazy. :)

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 10, 2008 11:36 AM EST reply actions

Crazy?

My sister called me crazy once........Once.

by gonzostl on Jan 10, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

To quote FARK.com...

I see what you did there. Johnny Dangerously is a very underrated film, IMO.

"It's always about the money. Anyone who says it's not is lying."- Gene Simmons

by cardsrul on Jan 10, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

Another great line...

"Did you know your last name is an adverb?"

by indakind on Jan 10, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

I would be thrilled

if Clement could reach these marks or better. I'm just not that confident.

The only game I've ever been to at Wrigley was a game he pitched against the Reds in early April, 2002. Though I was much younger and less knowledgeable than I am now, I remember being impressed with his stuff (kip w311z alertz!!11!) and thinking he would turn into a fine MLB pitcher. Maybe getting into STL is just what he needs??

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Jan 10, 2008 12:09 PM EST reply actions

Heck

I'd be thrilled if Pineiro could reach those marks. ;)

by maddash1946 on Jan 10, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions

the cards signed a new player

josh phelps

here's his page at B-R

by lboros on Jan 10, 2008 1:20 PM EST reply actions

ps --- it's a minor-league deal

by lboros on Jan 10, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting

As far as a signing goes, it's "eh". But it could be a harbringer of things to come. Right now, Dunc is the backup 1B, correct?

"Dude, we're running out of stadium" - said on the way to our seats in Section 428.

by bukowski on Jan 10, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

AAA

he'll hit well for memphis. i think he has too many defensive limitations to make a larussa team. to my knowledge he's never been tried in the outfield, but i think there was a good reason for that. he's going to have to learn OF or 3b if he wants to make the team.

by dmb60614 on Jan 10, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

OF

evidently the pirates thought about using him in the OF last year, but reconsidered. they let him shag some balls in BP. i hope he has been practicing. i still think mench would be a better pickup.

by dmb60614 on Jan 10, 2008 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

that's exactly what i was thinking...

When cheese gets its picture taken, what does it say?

by RosevilleRedbird on Jan 10, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions

I'm pretty sure Speez...

is the backup 1B/3B/Corner OF. Don't know for sure who's first on the depth chart, but I would think with Dunc being a starter Speez would be first.

by cardzfanbub on Jan 10, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think this signing was meant

to have an impact on the major league club. We needed more depth at AAA. Last year we pretty much raped Memphis everytime someone on the major league team got injured.

by showmejoe on Jan 10, 2008 10:34 PM EST up reply actions

I know it's a limited sample size

but combined in both leagues last year he hit .306/.399/.503 -- only 157 AB's though.

Don't see him finding playing time in St. Louis, but it isn't bad to stock talent at AAA either.

He must be really terrible defensively at 1B to get replaced by the human-out-creator Doug Mientkiewitz.

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 10, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

I think he could easily find playing time

if Duncan is used with Thompson as part of a deal somewhere.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 10, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

phelps fielding

tough call on that one. In '07 he was above league average by range factor for both the Yankees and the pirates, didn't have enough playing time to appear in PMR and was awful for the Yankees (worse than Ryan Howard, .714 vs .723) and quite good for the pirates (better than Todd Helton, .818 vs .808), going by RZR.

Unfortunately I'm not sure if that tells us anything other than that RZR is a poor tool for measuring small-sample-size 1B performance, though the fact that he played on the same team as Delgado in '03 and '04 and Phelps was used as a DH instead of Delgado might tell us something. Delgado is a poor 1B defender IIRC.

the bums will always lose...

by SleepyCA on Jan 10, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions