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think la russa wanted that one? 11 outs from his setup man and closer; i can't think of a single instance in which he has managed that way before, not even in a postseason game. it was only the 2d time this year franklin entered a game as early as the 6th inning; the previous time was a 15-6 blowout win over oakland back on june 16. izzy hadn't been asked to convert a 6-out save all year. he did, however, have three previous 2-inning stints, all of which began in the 9th and continued through the 10th. in 2 of the 3 prior instances, he held the opposition scoreless in his 2d inning of work; and the 3d time he yielded a meaningless run.

i think tony figured he had to get through the heart of the cubs' order 2 more times, so he played platoon matchups with percival/flores the first time through (ie, the 6th inning) and planned on using franklin the 2d time through. when percival and flores didn't get the job done, he had to call franklin in ahead of schedule. i like that la russa showed the flexibility to let his relievers roam off their usual reservations; indeed, in retrospect i wonder if he should have considered carrying that idea further by bringing in franklin to start the 6th. the cards led by two at the time, and the cubs' two best hitters (lee and ramirez) were up; if franklin worked efficiently he might have stayed out there to complete the 7th. then the matchup guys could've faced the 9-1-2 hitters in the 8th with at least a 2-run lead, and izzy could come in (if the game were still close) to face lee and ramirez and however many other guys it took to close things out.

that would make more sense to me than the way things actually went down in the 6th inning ---- ie, the weaker relievers faced the best hitters and let the cubs back into the game, while franklin faced the rump of the order. if you're prepared to use franklin that early anyway, maybe he should pitch to the tougher hitters. . . . . to be clear, i'm not criticizing tony's handling of the situation; i'm merely pondering alternatives. la russa probably sent percival out there in the hope that franklin and izzy would only have to pitch an inning apiece --- or maybe not at all, if the cards tacked on more runs. he didn't use his most powerful weapons until he had to --- but it's telling that when he had to, he didn't hesitate. it was a game he really, really wanted to win.

it leaves the cardinals 4-7 vs the cubs this year, in a series that has contained its usual share of oddities. am i the only one who thought that the team that hit the ball hardest lost all three games in this series? the hit that put the cardinals ahead for good, rolen's "double" in the 3d inning, certainly wasn't well struck . . . . but it has gone the other way a number of times as well. if we look at the head-to-head stats, it's hard to distinguish one team from the other:

AB H BB HR AVG OBP SLG | R BR LW
cubs 381 99 27 12 .260 .311 .428 | 52 50.2 45.3
cards 372 92 34 16 .247 .317 .417 | 43 50.2 45.6

the last two columns in the table are base runs and linear weights, the two most accurate run-scoring models --- and they show the teams to be almost dead even. that's to be expected; they've had the exact same number of baserunners (126 apiece) and almost identical extra-base output (.170 isolated power for the cards, .168 for the cubs). yet the cubs have plated 9 runs more than the cardinals . . . . what gives? blame it on the RISP situations, of which i wrote not long ago. here's how the teams have fared during the first 11 games of the series:

ALL RISP SITUATIONS

PA AVG OBP SLG
cubs 96 .308 .344 .505
cards 86 .169 .198 .361

TWO-OUT RISP SITUATIONS

PA AVG OBP SLG
cubs 59 .352 .407 .574
cards 39 .132 .154 .263

the cards haven't been able to buy a clutch hit, while the cubs have piled one on top of the other. rolen's two-out, two-strike double in the first inning yesterday was a real difference-maker --- it literally provided the margin of victory. it was the cards' only hit in the entire series with two out and men in scoring position, and only their 2d one all season at wrigley; they're 2 for 23 with 2 out and RISP in the friendly confines this year.

you might say the cubs have simply been lucky in their confrontations vs the cardinals this year; or you might say the cubs taken better at-bats, and made better pitches, in the clutch. both statements are probably partially true. but when you consider that the cubs' advantage in head-to-head games accounts for their entire margin over the cardinals in the standings --- and then you consider that their advantage head-to-head over st louis boils down to a couple dozen plate appearances with men on base . . . . . let's just say that all signs point to a one-game playoff to decide the division.

and it'll probably go extra innings.

p.s.: armchair gm wants to know how you like your rick ankiel.

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Weather the factor..
in TLR's decision making. With the persistent rain in the Chicago area, the prospects of the game being called at any time was a real possibility. I do appreciate the way he tried to bring home a winner, and keep the Birds within reach of the leaders. 5 games out vs. 3 games out is a lot better, even though we have a long way to go.
go crazy folks..........

by wwbd on Aug 21, 2007 9:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Speaking of the weather
I was surprised that Franklin came out again after the rain delay--and impressed/delighted that he shut them down.  I have an mental picture of Franklin just standing on the mound, rain pouring down; he's glaring at the batter's box waiting for his next victim.  'Roider (hopefully former 'roider) or not, I love Ryan Franklin.

Reading BCB afterward, and remarking how many of them seemed eager to get to our bullpen...eat eleven outs of Ryan Franklin and J. Isringhausen, Cubbies.

by lordsummer on Aug 21, 2007 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agree
Overall, TLR had to go for the victory.  A come from behind win for the Cubs would have been a major demoralizing blow to the Cards' chances to compete for the division.

by Wahoo on Aug 21, 2007 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

In defense of Juan
...In light of lboros's findings on our abysmal performance in the clutch, I wanted to transfer some hard work I did in the latest Juan-basing diary.

I have cataloged 10 games in which Juan delivered game-defining and/or game winning clutch hits. People need to recognize that without Juan's contribution to this sometimes anemic offense, we'd be fighting off Houston and Pittsburgh for 4th place.  

People get so pissed at the latest flub in the field or the latest gidp, that they fail to look at the season as a whole.  My research even surprised me...

The Cardinals had dropped two of the first three to Col and desperately needed a split - Juan delivers a go ahead double to put them up for good 4-2.

Tie game w/ cincy, 6th inning, Juan homers to put them up for good, 3-2.

Juan offers a game-changing 3-run homer to put the cardinals up for good against philly, 4-1.

Tie game, 8th inning in Cincy, Juan delivers a clutch single to put the Cardinals up 3-2 and give them the victory.

Remeber when we took 3 of 4 from Ari, well this was game three of that series, 8th inning, we're losing 4-3, and Juan doubles in the tying run, and then scores the winning run (driven in by Rolen).

Same Ari series - Juan took care of all of the scoring in this one - 3 run homer.

The least significant of my findings, but still big - Juan delivers a  single to put the cardinals up 2-0 against Florida. You may recall this is the game where Kip wells turned his season around. How much do you think he appreciated those first inning runs?

Tie game, 8th inning in Atlanta, Juan delivers again with the winning RBI to put the cards up for good 2-1.

You all must remember this one - perhaps the most important game of the season. We'd lost 2 of 3 to the Cubs, the first of 4 to the Brewers, and had gone down 6-0. Juan delivered 3 (3!!!!!!) two-out single to cut the lead to 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, setting the stage for the heroics that ensued.

Remember that crazy 5th inning vs. San Diego? Juan delivered the go ahead rbi.

The fact that some label Juan a "rally killer" is just laughable. He has delivered consistent rbi production when this team has needed it most. And all the griping about his "high salary" fails to recognize that in this market - where Gary Matthews Jr. gets 11 mill - he's actually somewhat of a bargain.  

by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 9:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Devil's advocate
I guess the question is what another player in his place would have done, say Rick Ankiel.  Just to set the record straight, I think JE has gotten a raw deal, but in some sense, he is his own worst enemy.  Fans have a hard time forgetting his lackadaisical (sp?) play in RF and his failure to slide into 2b on a busted hit and run play.

by Wahoo on Aug 21, 2007 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

It is hard to ask
Any player (save Albert or David Ortiz) to deliver as consistently in those situations detailed above.

You make my point - people get so po'ed about that one dropped ball in right and that one lack-of-slide at second, they fail to see (or do not want to see) the remarkable contributions he has made this season (in only just over two months time too!)

by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good luck
convincing the Cards fans who unconditionally love the likes of Stubby Clap, Jim Lindeman, David Eckstein, Rex Hudler, and Joe McEwing - scrappy, white (yes, i said it - white) overachievers - to see Juan for what he is: an above-average major league right fielder.  Sure, he probably gets by a little to much on his God-given ability, and not on his work ethic.

But he's still very productive.  Just don't expect most Cardinal fans to see it.

by silent_bob on Aug 21, 2007 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

If Cards fans
were honest with themselves, they would see Juan is currently the most consistent outfielder the Cards have. Both Edmonds and Duncan struggle with lefties. Ankiel is pretty inexperienced and Ludwick and Taguchi are no more than part time players. In most cases, Juan should be in the starting three for the outfield.

by JMedwick on Aug 21, 2007 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly
Damn those Cardinals fans and their undying love to retire the number of an average black outfielder who would run through walls for a flyball.

Bunch of racists.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't call anyone racist
And I would've pointed out Good ol' 51 as an exception if I would've thought of him.  But alas, I'm typing quickly while I should be working.

And I'm not including all Cardinals fans in my criticism.  

by silent_bob on Aug 21, 2007 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hey Bob
Leave Jim Lindeman out of this. He was unstoppable on RBI Baseball. That counts for something.
Boooo-urns.

by Alxfritz on Aug 21, 2007 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

agreed...
...on ALL fronts, Silent.

Blame my naiveté for hoping that in the face of such overwhelming evidence of his winning contributions to this team, some folks (maybe even just one) would begin to appreciate, and stop hating Juan.

by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

I see Juan for what he is...
Yes, he's an average or slightly above average major league right fielder.  He's also lazy.  He has the talent to be a pretty good right fielder, but he doesn't use it.  Is he productive? Yes.  I don't mind him being on my team if I'm the GM, but that doesn't mean I have to like the guy or his style of play.

by outraged on Aug 21, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seriously
Didn't we just have this argument the other day?  I guess we will just have to burn a cross before home games, huh.  

Let me just name a few non-white Cardinals that fans have adored over the years.  Ozzie Smith, Jose Oquendo, Yadier Molina, Willie Mcgee, Albert Pujols, and the list goes on and on.

I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown

by Eckstreem on Aug 21, 2007 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have to confess, I think I'm missing the point
of bringing race into this as well. Is it that the group of Cards fans being criticized here are harder on non-white players who seem to be loafers than white ones? That they're more likely to perceive a non-white player as a loafer? That they just don't like non-white players generally?

Also, is this in reference to comments made about Juan or other players on VEB, or among some Cards fans more generally?

by BTown Birds fan on Aug 21, 2007 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

because juan's race
has been brought up a number of times recently, most egregiously in this thread:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2007/8/13/9727/61265

"This is a ball club with issues." -Nats announcers (talking about the Cardinals)

by SleepyCA on Aug 21, 2007 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

To be honest about Juan
my problem with him has never been his hitting.  Sure, I'd like him to be a .300/30/100 guy, but that aside, I've never given a care about his hitting or lack thereof.

by sdrone on Aug 21, 2007 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's flawed to look at it that way
how many of those games did Juan make a bad play in the outfield?  How many of those games did Juan come up empty earlier in the game?  How do you know that Ankiel or Ludwick wouldn't have yak'd one or two into the cheapseats earlier in the game for those 'clutch' situations to not matter?

If I came up with 10 instances of Juan costing the team the game, you'd say "Well, those are just isolated incidents.  The game could be decided elsewhere."

He's only a bargain compared to Gary Matthews if you think Matthews got a fair contract.  He got a ridiculous contract.  That would be like saying Big Z is a bargain compared to Mike Hampton and Kevin Brown.

We are paying Juan $5M to do something that Ankiel and Ludwick can do on MiLB contracts.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I challenge you
to come up with 10 instances of Juan making a game-changing, game-defining gaff in the field that lead to a loss. I have done my work showing the MANY, MANY times he has done it on the offensive side of things to make a difference between winning and losing.

For over 2 months to come up with this many crucial hits isn't isolated, it's huge!

And btw, in this market, $5 mill/per for Juan 'aint that bad.  

by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

It'd take me a few days, as it is harder to find
Errors in the game logs and often times those doubles turned into triples are difficult to dig out as well.

Off the top of my head:

Rally Killer hands Cardinals defeat 5-3 against Royals with 2 Bases Loaded DPs http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN200706180.shtml

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Remeber good players only get hits 3O% of the time
It's much more significant to show the times in which a player has delivered a game winning hit than it is to show times where he didn't come through.

by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's a fantastic way to defend
a player.  "Remember, he fails 70% of the time, so when you point out when he fails...it's no big deal".

Look at Juan's doppleganger: Jacque Jones.  He's putting up almost identical numbers to Juan, playing better defense and making $1M less.  Who is more of the bargain?

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd rather
have Juan than Jacque Jones any day of the week.

Cubs fans were just as enraged at Jones before his recent hot streak, and were just as ready to run him out of town.

by silent_bob on Aug 21, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah,
except he's played 30 MORE games and has less HRs, and a worse average. But good point, almost, well not really.

by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

With Men on base
Jacque Jones is hitting .307.  With RISP? .323

Congrats to Juan for hitting 3 more HRs than Jacque Jones.  That's certainly earned him that extra $1 M.

As far as either player, I wouldn't want either on me team.  It was almost as if when the Cubs signed Jones, Jocketty said "Oh yeah? Well watch this!"

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

but
if you look at his points in the original post, three of the ten (?) game changing hits were home runs. concidentally, that's the same amount that juan has over jones.
VEB Fantasy Football League! leave me a comment, and i'll send you an invite!

by stlcardinalsfang on Aug 21, 2007 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Brekky and WPA
I know that WPA is far from being a perfect metric for offensive production and does not help at all for his defensive issues, but he has looked very well on Fangraphs. His YTD total is +1.41, second on the team only to Pujols. Using his per-game values, he has had a:
  • positive .100 or better 15 times
  • negative .100 or worse 9 times
His individual plate appearances:
  • positive .075 or better 27 times
  • negative .075 or worse 10 times
Granted, the very nature of the WPA beast ensures that it's going to take at least twice as many failures to balance out the production of player who is succeeding at least 1/3 of the time (roughly Juan's OBP). But he is doing better than average (not to be confused with replacement level).

Do I think he botches more than his share of balls in right field? Yup. Does it infuriate me when he does it? Yeah, a bit. But I'm not mad at Brekky's game as a whole.

Interesting perspective: if Juan hustled almost all of the time, would we be looking at a 2007 version of Willie McGee? Both guys' swings are not things of beauty, have similar body types, similar hangdog expressions, etc. The real differences would be a result of the era shift: more homers & strikeouts, fewer steals. Plus, if you wanted to get Willie out, you threw him strikes (half-joking); he would smack around pitches in his eyes or around his shoelaces. Encarnacion is dead-meat against the slider out of the zone (Wuertz ate him up yesterday).

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Aug 21, 2007 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

But his first GIDP
scored a run!  Productive out(s)!
"The Phillies honored PR man Larry Shenk for 44 years of service. Shenk told the crowd he had one request: 'Don't boo so much.' The crowd promptly booed."

by Mr Redbird on Aug 21, 2007 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just noticed you also credited Juan
for driving in the crucial 4th run in that 10 run inning against the Padres.

That's a stretch.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Admittedly
one of the least crucial hits of the ten, but we were down 3-0. You can't deny the significance (and psychological uplift) of talking the lead to go up 4-3; he kept the inning going.  

by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

A great post
Thanks for all the research.  I have seen the statistics on the other side, and they arn't irrelevant.   Is there a chance that Ludwick, So etc. would have succeded as well?  Of course.  But in light of the cards clutch struggles, Juan haters should take a deep breath and appreciate the things he does.

by mcurryatl on Aug 21, 2007 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

hint
if you use a stat like WPA, you don't have to catalog random games like that.  WPA tells you specifically how much Juan has increased the teams winning probability.

The problem with trying to defend Juan this way is that game winning hits, WPA and this anecdotal evidence isn't predictive.  Juan's a mediocre player -- nothing more, nothing less.

by azruavatar on Aug 21, 2007 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

And there
in lies the answer. Mediocre player making (relatively) mediocre money.
Boooo-urns.

by Alxfritz on Aug 21, 2007 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

You can take your WPA and shove it...
..just kidding. Please enlighten me on how Juan's WPA compares with other cardinals this season.

BUT - I'm not trying to predict anything. I'm trying to show that Juan has made several (anecdotal, yes) game-specific contributions to winning. Games happen moment by moment and are won and lost by very specific contributions. No matter how much the stat-heads want to aggregate everything and predict everything, they can't change that games are won and lost with specific, circumstantial contributions.  

Sometimes it can be nice to see a list of those contributions. Esp. when the player takes so much heat.

by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

My problem with Juan
Its not "rally killer"...Its "morale killer".  

And no, comparing 1 overpriced player (Juan) to another (Gary) and then claiming that Juan is a bargain is flawed logic.

I'd rather pay someone like Ludwick or Ankiel $1M for next year, and willingly sacrifice some at the plate than continue to pay Juan $5M for his lackluster, or uninspiring play.

Looking at the season as a whole I see someone who contributes offensively in line with expectations (the 4th highest paid offensive player has the 4th most RBIs on the team...)

by redbird2006in on Aug 21, 2007 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sure his team was inspired
by those game winning hits.

Does his lackluster play deserve scrutiny? Sure - by his teammates AND the fans. But unlike his teammates, I'm sure the fans are too quick to forget his contributions to this team..  

by cardsfaninmass on Aug 21, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

did you happen to see
the Cubs game where Juan took his eyes off the foul ball that should have been an easy catch? Now, fortunately the hitter flew out that same at bat, but imagine if that ball had been hit for a home run, double, or even single.

I know this is a "what if" scenario, but this is a certainty-

-that would absolutely do no part in inspiring the team, if anything it would absolutely kill team morale "Juan just had the 3rd out of the inning in his hands and his laziness gave it away"
-yes, that deserves scrutiny. if you're a major league outfielder, you need to go balls out.

Lackluster play absolutely kills morale. That's why you have guys like Ryan who join the team, and all'va sudden we start winning. They are sparkplugs that ignite desire to win. JEnc and company have won their championship, but when Ankiel, Ryan, and Ludwick take the field, they've never been to the World Series. They CRAVE to win. I love watching these guys play because they seem like they actually want to win. I'm sorry, but JEnc doesn't seem like he could care less. It seems more like he's just going to the ballpark every day to do his job, to make his money, much like a monotonous office job. I'd rather not have that kind of player starting on my team.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Aug 21, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

lboros on espn.com
looking forward to hearing what lboros has to say on who is the face of the cards.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/sportsnation/face/mlb/index

by bdub78 on Aug 21, 2007 10:21 AM EDT reply actions  

perhaps
as of three weeks ago, i would have called him the face of this season...

by bdub78 on Aug 21, 2007 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

as of four or five weeks ago
i would have picked anthony reyes. espcially after reading this
VEB Fantasy Football League! leave me a comment, and i'll send you an invite!

by stlcardinalsfang on Aug 21, 2007 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

hahahaha
I just laughed out loud.  Thank goodness for cube walls.

by john vb on Aug 21, 2007 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ha!
Can always count you, LB, for some damn entertaining contrarianism.

by rockin redbird on Aug 21, 2007 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Face of the Cards
Is either So Taguchi or Aaron Miles.

by Calhoun on Aug 21, 2007 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pic
The larger question is will we get to see a picture of the blogmeister himself?  Pretty heady company to be up there with Bernie and Eric Young.  Let's get LB a press box pass to hang with the big dogs.

by raisin @ Viva El Birdos on Aug 21, 2007 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

This guy
Pick him

I know, this was just posted yesterday...still makes me laugh though!

"The Phillies honored PR man Larry Shenk for 44 years of service. Shenk told the crowd he had one request: 'Don't boo so much.' The crowd promptly booed."

by Mr Redbird on Aug 21, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

perfect
comedic timing and answer, just perfect.

TSF

by TedSimmonsFan on Aug 21, 2007 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

thanks
I went through that yesterday and didn't even notice that Larry has been tabbed to make a selection.  And a pat on the back to ESPN too, for including bloggers in this discussion, however pointless it may be.  :)

by john vb on Aug 21, 2007 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's pretty cool...
also, they say who the highest paid player on each team is........the current highest paid Cubs player:

Jason Kendall...

- Y. Molina stole third

by TriplePlay on Aug 21, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

The ESPN.com picks
Several were managers, GMs, or owners.  The ESPN guys picked more non-players than the newspaper writers did.

I really like getting the newspaper writers' and blog authors' picks (especially before Eric Young and the BBTN crew follow the "popular" vote on Thursday).  Give some cred to the bloggers!

Cheering on the Cardinals, one pitch at a time.

by ColinMacLeod on Aug 21, 2007 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

TLR managed yesterday's game...
...as a "MUST-win" contest. He had Piñiero on a short leash, yanking him after five innings of "atom" pitching (Joel got some outs on balls that were smoked "at 'em"); yanked Percival and Flores when they didn't get the job done (Percival was only going to face two batters anyway); and leveraged his best/most trusted relievers in the game's most critical situations.

Franklin's ability to resume pitching after the rain delay was huge... even "everyday" relievers can find it hard to warm up again after cooling off for an hour or so! Izzy had thrown all of eight pitches in the previous seven days, so asking him to get six outs, while rare, wasn't unreasonable.

The Birds need to maintain their concentration in this series against the Marlins... there won't (can't) be the "electricity" Wrigley provided over the weekend. Having Wagonmaker on the bump is a good beginning, though!

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Aug 21, 2007 11:17 AM EDT reply actions  

There have been a handful of games this past
month that it seemed Tony was managing for tomorrow.  It was nice to see him try to fight for the win in hand.

If only he had given Kip a short leash like this in the past, he'd probably have 3 or 4 more wins.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

it would just be like the 2007 cardinals
to get swept this week by the sorry-ass marlins. that being said, it is a good thing that wainwright is in their plans tonight. hopefully he can give the starting rotation another quality start.

what sucks though is both the cubs and the brewers have to lose for the cardinals to gain a game tonight (assuming they win). not likely with the cubs facing the sorry-ass giants and the brewers taking on the diamondbacks (who they beat the shit out of the last night). the probability that both will lose is low.

btw, anyone have a scouting report on tonight's pitcher for the marlins? i've never heard of him.

VEB Fantasy Football League! leave me a comment, and i'll send you an invite!

by stlcardinalsfang on Aug 21, 2007 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

There's not much on him
that I can find, he's a righty, and has about 9IP at the ML level.

by jeff abs on Aug 21, 2007 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

While the Giants
have been sorry, they did just win 5 in a row, including a four game sweep of the Marlins (hopefully the G-men demoralized the Fish for us).  And the D-backs have been hot lately, in spite of getting spanked by the Brew Crew.  Also, BWebb will be bringing his hot streak against the Brewers and Supp on Wed. I found it interesting when those two teams, both heavy with youth and not much experience, collided last night that the Brewers came out on top, especially on the road (the Brew Crew's kryptonite).  What I am trying to say, in a roundabout way, is that I like our chances of picking up some ground in the standings on the Cubs and Brewers.  

OTOH, a pitcher we have never seen before seems to be a recipe for disaster for this year's Cards, so .....

by cardsgirl95 on Aug 21, 2007 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

uh..
the giants have won 5 in a row, and they've got lincecum going against jason marquis. the dbacks have the best record in the NL and are 12-6 this month.

the probability may not be sky-high, but how do you figure it's LOW?

by baw on Aug 21, 2007 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tim Lincecum
I believe he is not starting now. He's on leave because of a sick family member.

by Carps on Aug 21, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's back
Tim Lincecum returns from the bereavement list to start for San Francisco. Lincecum faced the Cubs one other time this season, earning a no-decision on July 16 after allowing one run on two hits in 6 1/3 innings. The Giants are 7-3 in the rookie's last 10 starts.

SFGiants.com

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 21, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good to know.
I made sure I had him playing tonight on my fantasy. Thanks.

by Carps on Aug 21, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Linecum is starting tonight
he's coming off the bereavement list today.

by nycardfan on Aug 21, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

In Retrospect
Franklin taking the mound after the rain delay was a roll of the dice and TLR playing the hand that he had dealt to himself in the best possible way. It was a gamble though and it did get a little hairy. That DP grounder was hit hard. Fortunately, the Cards won and live to fight for the division crown for at least a couple of more days.

by Vinegar Bend on Aug 21, 2007 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL
Nice spin, VB.

Everyone and their grandmother goes on at length at how Tony agressively managed his bullpen to help ensure a critical win (in a manner contrary to your game day diatribe), but you just won't let it go...backhandedly calling him 'lucky'.  I admire your tenacity, if nothing else.

I, for one, was thrilled to see Tony break from the "traditional mindset" and bring in both Franklin and Izzy "early", thereby ensuring that his best options were in play at the highest leverage moments.  That was truly remarkable.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Aug 21, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Majority is Often Wrong
And you probably think that batting the pitcher eighth is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Feel free to post here but never say anything critical of our local baseball immortal. Otherwise we will ridicule you and hand you your head on a platter since every right thinking person knows that TLR is brilliant and forward looking and the new breed of baseball manager and quite frankly we wish not to be bothered by anyone that might hold a different opinion of one of his "ingenious" moves.

The fact of the matter is that he played the sixth inning yesterday as if he was trailing, instead of having a two run lead. He pulled Piniero too early, and all of his "brilliant" gyrations and first time ever this season moves were a direct result of that decision.

Did Walt pick up a new starter that I am unaware of? If not, Joel Piniero is gonna start several more games for the Redbirds this season. It sure will be comforting to him to know just how much confidence his manager has in him next time out.

by Vinegar Bend on Aug 21, 2007 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Are you kidding with this #$%#&*!??
"Feel free to post here but never say anything critical of our local baseball immortal."

Have you read any of the game threads for the past two years? People complain about his handling of the staff, his treatment of veterans vs. youngsters, his match-up strategies, etc etc etc all the time.

I'm absolutely baffled that anyone who pays the slightest attention to this blog would think that it's full of TLR apologists. That is some wacky, wacky shit.

by BTown Birds fan on Aug 21, 2007 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Same Ol' Same Ol'
It is the tone of posts such as yours that I am referring to.

by Vinegar Bend on Aug 21, 2007 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're referring to someone expressing
incredulity regarding a statement you made that's absurd on its face? You made a claim that criticism of TLR isn't welcome here; that claim is completely ludicrous. The fact almost everyone here seems to disagree with your particular criticism of TLR in yesterday's game doesn't change that.

by BTown Birds fan on Aug 21, 2007 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

And regarding yesterday specifically,
"It sure will be comforting to him to know just how much confidence his manager has in him next time out."

He had given up 7 hits in 5 innings, including 2 HR, he could easily have allowed more than 3 runs, and they were hitting a lot of balls very hard (like in the bottom of the 4th, a 1-2-3 inning where all the outs were line drives that thankfully were at outfielders). He clearly didn't have his best stuff. If he's so fragile that he can't deal with being lifted after 5 innings under those conditions then he probably doesn't have much of a future with the Cards or any other team.

by BTown Birds fan on Aug 21, 2007 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pineiro was being hit hard yesterday
It was probably best that he was pulled when he was.

As for confidence, it is more important for Joel to gain Tony's trust than for LaRussa to build Pineiro's confidence. Sure he needs to learn Joel's warning signs of slipping capability within a start and probably jumped the gun a little bit, but in reality he just erred on the side of caution. It would've been bold if he had left Pineiro in the game and seen what the pitcher could do in that situation. But given the nature of batted balls against him (not to be confused with the results), the chances of him getting smacked around by the two best hitters in the Cubs lineup were pretty high. Plus, Tony has yet to give up on this season and probably thought it more important to utilize his rested bullpen (that is one of the best in the league) to hold the lead than risk further shaky performance from his new-ish starter.

If you want to rip on the pitcher batting eighth, swing away, by all means! I just think that he is trying something to stimulate offensive production. And whether it is actually something useful or just a placebo, the Cardinals record has improved since then, so I'm not going to bitch about it (I will maintain a minimum level of skepticism, though, as I do for most things).

As for getting your ideas shot at, that is simply the nature of the blogosphere. You want to post a thought out here (or anywhere in the public internet), you better expect it to be tested, poked, prodded, examined for every weakness. You have a few options:

  • Drop a simple idea out there, expect that it will be shot to hell, and revise it. Rinse and repeat.
  • Spend several hours devising an unassailable set of ideas, agonizing over every single detail, so that no one can make a logical argument against you (and still have to deal with a few contrarians/trolls who just respond to watch you pitch a fit).
  • Spend several hours writing a rambling three page piece that nobody has the patience to wade through and just assume that the lack of replies means that you must be correct. (I've done this a few times unintentionally.)
If you want to step out of the spawn point of this multiplayer match of dodgeball prose, you better have your wits about you and your head on a swivel. And remember that it ain't personal, it's just a game, on more than one level.
Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Aug 21, 2007 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well Solanus..............
Of all the responses to my criticism of TLR, yours is well articulated and rises above the usual and expected clash of egos in the blogosphere.

I also respect that you state the the starter probably should have been pulled.

To me, retiring the last seven batters he had faced, having thrown only 69 pitches, and the weather dictated that Piniero should start the sixth. TLR also had the luxury of a 2 run lead. If he allows a baserunner, go ahead and pull him. If he gets through the innning though, and there is a delay, then you play your matchups for the last nine outs. And I believe the Cardinals have only lost one game this year when leading after 6. That is with TLR using his bullpen in their assigned roles.

Izzy going two was not a problem since he was well rested. The game hinged on Franklin being able to pitch effectively after a 90 minute delay. Fortunately he did. One might even say, luckily he did.

Regardless, a pleasure discussing the game with you.

by Vinegar Bend on Aug 21, 2007 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you're interested in keeping the tone friendly,
you should probably avoid saying things like this:

"Feel free to post here but never say anything critical of our local baseball immortal. Otherwise we will ridicule you and hand you your head on a platter since every right thinking person knows that TLR is brilliant...."

The notion that everyone else here blindly worships TLR and you're the only one with enough objectivity and courage to speak truth to power bears absolutely no resemblance to reality. It's self-absorbed and insulting to other posters here (although at least you didn't make any references to kool-aid). And to turn around and criticize others' tone and "clash of egos" style minutes after typing it is pretty damn hypocritical. If you expect others to show you a certain level of civility, you'd be wise to do the same.

OK... I've probably written (more than) enough on something that isn't that important. The upshot is: despite what you claimed, criticism of TLR is clearly welcome here; you just happen to be in the minority with your particular criticism here.

by BTown Birds fan on Aug 21, 2007 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

well stated, btown birds
vinegar bend, i gotta be honest with you --- i thought the people who challenged you yesterday did so in an appropriate tone and in a spirit of open discussion. you got defensive about it and copped an attitude, which you seem to have retreated into all the more deeply today.

drop the attitude and just enjoy the discussion.

by lboros on Aug 21, 2007 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

But Iboros.....
don't I get a couple of points for invigorating the comment section of your blog?

by Vinegar Bend on Aug 21, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

you'll get further with honey
than with vinegar.
I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Aug 21, 2007 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nicely played, NYC.
Coming soon... the touchy, hostile poster formerly known as Vinegar Bend... Honey Bend!  
To hell with your spoiled baby! I need those shoes!

by the red baron on Aug 22, 2007 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Perhaps
...but you unfortunately lose some more by calling him "Iboros" instead of "Lboros".

Darn those sans serif fonts!

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Aug 21, 2007 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

the comments section
is doing okay without you, VB. and the objective is quality, not quantity. your critique of la russa was interesting the first time through; the 2d time, not so much. and the exchanges of barbs w/ other posters . . . . zzzzzzzzzzzzz. that doesn't make the site better.

by lboros on Aug 22, 2007 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

2 other things about pulling Pineiro
when TLR did:

First, it was probably best for Pineiro's long term endurance since he's not been conditioned this year to be a starter but rather a reliever.  The lower pitch count may help to get him another win in his next game and that would be a confidence builder on top of this game, which was counted as a win for him.

Second, Pinella has a very different philosophy about building confidence in pitchers and I prefer it TLR's.  He thinks it's best to pull a pitcher who looks like they are laboring while he still can experience a measure of success rather than risking a blow to his confidence by sinking a game.  

If TLR had done this with Wells, we'd have a lot more wins and his confidence may not have crashed the way it did.  The problem of course is that puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen.  Pinella has been able to do it successfully for much of the year.

by nycardfan on Aug 21, 2007 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know I probably shouldn't bother, but...
First of all, I trust that you are new here.  I say that only because 1) I don't recall seeing your username in any previous posts before yesterday, and 2) your statement about "never say anything critical of [Tony]...[o]therwise we will ridicule you" betrays a fairly obvious lack of historical perspective on the typical discussions on this forum.  So, if I am correct that you are new here, welcome!

However, if you plan on posting borderline vitriolic criticisms of Tony on an active baseball forum, you might consider preparing yourself for some equally vocal rebuttal...especially when your cited rationale happens to be contrary to almost everyone else's view of the move(s) in question.  No one is saying you can't criticize Tony.  Hell, pretty much everyone here does so numerous times each season.  It's part of the deal.

The fact is, however, if you had done some actual reading/research here on VEB you might have found that many of us feel that Tony is often too old school for this ball club.  Indeed, many of us have been vocal in our support of possibly finding a new manager for the club, citing various reasons (from the much needed influx of youth rather than reliance upon aging vets, to the Managerial "Mind Games/Drama" that seems to be so prevalent this year).  That's part of the reason we were so excited to see him stray from his usual pattern of predictable, stubborn refusal to consider anything other than "Frankin is our 8th inning guy, and Izzy only comes in for the save".  Many of us have argued (quite cogently) that a better way to manage the bullpen might be to use your best guys in higher leverage situations when the game is truly on the line, even if that happens to fall before the 8th or 9th inning.

>The fact of the matter is that he played the
>sixth inning yesterday as if he was trailing

That's a very interesting perspective, since I think nearly all of us see his moves as exactly the opposite. YMMV, I suppose.

Anyway, I won't belabor the point...except to add one more thing:

>And you probably think that batting the pitcher
>eighth is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Actually, truth be told, back in '98 I thought it was pretty ridiculous.  Then, years after having already made up my mind because the "stunt" seemed so counter to "tradition" or "common baseball wisdom", I actually did some reasearch.  And you know what I found?  Simulations show that putting your weakest hitter 8th (presumably your pitcher) and a better OBP guy in the 9th slot typically INCREASES the number of runs any particular lineup is likely to score.  Simulations repeatedly bear this out.  Thus enlightened, I now see the merit of such a "radical" approach and smile bemusedly when it is roundly panned as "crazy" or mocked as "ridiculous".  The really funny part, though, is that Tony isn't even really following that model...since for a lot of the games he's used this approach, the #9 hitter was Kennedy, whose OBP was typically LOWER than some of our decent-hitting pitchers.  Ah, well.  ;-)

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Aug 21, 2007 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow
Nice use of the ellipsis and brackets in your citation!  lol
"The Phillies honored PR man Larry Shenk for 44 years of service. Shenk told the crowd he had one request: 'Don't boo so much.' The crowd promptly booed."

by Mr Redbird on Aug 21, 2007 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, i think he must be new...
he just spelled larry's name with an I.
I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Aug 21, 2007 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm bored
Bored with your shallow, arrogant play at analysis.

I can get it at any corner bar.

Criticizing a manager for trying something that makes sense (batting the pitcher 8th) and managing his pitching staff to win a game?

As for a new starter down the stretch, Mark Mulder went 4 shutout innings last night. We may have a good shot in the arm coming in September. May the current rotation continue to make the decision difficult on La Russa and Duncan as to who he replaces.

Do your best to enjoy the baseball season.

by liam on Aug 22, 2007 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Correction
No earned runs, Mulder committed another error and allowed an unearned run on it.

I stand by my hostility, though.

by liam on Aug 22, 2007 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

seriously
I can't believe you are still at this.

I think what bothered people in your posts during the game yesterday was that you (i) evaluated the wisdom of TLR's individual decisions solely by the outcomes (e.g., Ludwick struck out, so pinch-hitting with him was a mistake, or Percival gave up the HR, so Pineiro should have been left in, and (ii) chalked up TLR's decisions to some character flaw ("he cracks under pressure") rather than just some strategic choices with which you didn't agree.
It's puzzling that you don't use the same logic today -- since yesterday you were judging TLR's moves simply by looking at the outcomes they produced, why aren't you singing Tony's praises today?  Apply a consistent standard to judge his performance, and maybe people will take your yearning for Whitey more seriously.

Also, given that you thought that Pineiro should have been kept in the game despite the fact that pitches were being hit hard (and into the outfield) for outs in his last inning or so, it's odd that you think it's relevant that the double play grounder was "hit hard."    

by tdawg on Aug 21, 2007 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why Not tdawg?
Haven't you heard, second guessing the manager is as old as the game itself.

I was not evaluating TLR's moves by outcomes. The game was not even over yet and I second guessed pulling Piniero because it created problems for bullpen management. So I stuck some play by play in my post. Call it literary style.

Once you pull the pitcher the odds are the pinch hitter will fail. Why would I be critical of that?

The odds are that Percival will not give up a homer. I am not criticizing TLR because he did. (of course the odds are that Piniero would not have given up a run either)

But, if you have not recognized by now, that TLR is tragically flawed, you haven't been payin' attention.

by Vinegar Bend on Aug 21, 2007 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

We all have our share of tragic flaws
I certainly have mine.  One of them is having trouble admitting when I've said something in haste, or jumped to a conclusion, even about a relatively insignificant topic. My guess is that someone else here has the same issue  . . .

Anyway.  I still don't get why anything that happened yesterday proves that TLR can't handle the pressure, or whatever you said in your first post.

by tdawg on Aug 21, 2007 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

tragically flawed?
I only wish I were as flawed as TLR.

by mattyfrommo on Aug 21, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

maybe you're just going for hyperbole
but, given its literary denotation (and your knack for "literary style"), i'd think you'd see how silly it sounds to apply the term "tragic flaw" to the manager of a baseball team, at least when what you're talking about is his managerial style.

also, regardless of how much credit you give tony for his teams' successes and how much blame you give him for their losses, a tragic flaw requires a tragedy, and tragedy is determined by outcome. tony's a future hall of famer who just managed his team to a championship. that's a comedy.

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Aug 21, 2007 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

One suggestion...
I would add one thing to your (already effective) closing statement:

"tony's a future hall of famer who just managed his 83 win team to a championship. that's a comedy."

Clearly.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Aug 21, 2007 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

clutch
from Post-Dispatch this morning about ankiel's throw: ...manager Tony La Russa said. "That (throw) was huge. Set the tempo for the game. We did a lot of clutch things, and that was the first clutch thing."

i think the first clutch thing was rolen hitting that double in the top of the first with two on, two strikes, and two outs (on six pitches). and it was just barely fair for one of our few pieces of luck in this series.

speaking of "oddities," they extended to the memphis redbirds game against the even smaller bears last night here in des moines. as lightning crackled and lit up the sky, the redbirds scored 2 after 2 strikeouts and a walk and a homer by tagg boziad. so they're up by 1. with skies still threatening, the i-cubs score 3 on two walks and a walk-off homer. then it poured.

day game for memphis-iowa in bright sunshine today. keisler is pitching for memphis. wonder what we'll see today.

by thatsawinner on Aug 21, 2007 11:57 AM EDT reply actions  

I really liked the fact that
Tony used Izzy in the 8th yesterday.  It's a situation where most managers would've used their setup men and crossed their fingers, saving the closer for the 9th.  But good baseball means using your best pitchers in the toughest situations.  Therefore, bringing Izzy in to face Lee and Ramirez had to be done -- even if it meant bringing Springer or someone in to pitch the 9th to earn the "save".

Tony basically created the 1 inning closer.  I'm glad he strayed from that philosophy yesterday.  More managers should do it and it's a big reason why the Cards won.

by chuckb on Aug 21, 2007 12:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Flores
Is there any better options out there?

by Milfy McMilf on Aug 21, 2007 1:27 PM EDT reply actions  

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