Game 84 Open Thread: July 7, 2007
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3-2, 4.64 |
6-6, 4.65 |
GAME TIME 6:15 CDT
i'm back from vacation; hugely successful and enjoyable family reunion. my thanks to everybody who handled the front-page posting during the week and kept an eye on the site --- outstanding job by everybody. the team didn't look too bad either, for whatever that's worth; yes they're about to get healthier, and they still have 21 games against the two teams they're chasing, but you can't like their chances. immediately after the all-star break, the cardinals face a 10-game road trip to philadelphia, florida, and atlanta, while both the cubs and brewers will enjoy 10-game home stands. milwaukee is 30-13 at home this season; how far off the pace will the cards be by late july, when they finally get to face the brewers head to head? maybe too far back for the games to mean anything.some assorted impressions for a saturday morning:
- the wreck of reyes continued last night at triple A; anthony gave up 3 homers and 4 walks in 4.2 innings. the dimming of his prospects this year is a significant blow to the organization, no matter whose fault it is --- and i'm as sick of going around in circles on the "whose fault" debate as you are, so let's try not to go there. young pitchers are the most highly prized talents in the game today; you hate to see one of those fail, for any reason. while it's still too soon to call reyes a failure, i think it's not too soon to conclude that his opportunity to succeed in this organization has expired. he needs a change of scenery. the cardinals need to move on. bad outcome.
- the cards might partially redeem that failure by leaving brad thompson in the rotation the rest of the year. once carpenter comes back, there'll be one slot left in the rotation, and la russa has declared wells, wellemeyer, and thompson to be in a "competition" for that slot. how short-sighted; how ridiculous. one of la russa's biggest weaknesses as a manager has always been his faith in competition --- the belief that player abilities can prove out over an arbitrary two-week (or two-month, or whatever) period. in truth, they prove out over the long haul. both wellemeyer and wells have a longstanding record of ruinous control problems ---- they're not able to throw strikes consistently. if they should happen to throw strikes in the next two or three weeks, so flippin' what? they'll still be pitchers who don't throw enough strikes. brad thompson throws strikes --- always has, always will. he doesn't do anything else particularly well, but a lotta guys have built 10-year careers on strike-throwing alone --- one of them, mike maroth, ranks as a front-line starter in the cards' current rotation. thompson is young, cheap, and above all unformed --- unlike wells and wellemeyer, he's not a proven failure. so screw the "competition"; give the job to the player who might have a future.
- during my vacation, i watched part of a game with somebody who has gotten to know mike shannon and family pretty well, on account of mrs shannon's illness. (her outlook is pretty grim.) my source said that shannon characterizes this team as an extraordinarily unhappy one --- a bunch of guys with long faces who seem not to realize they're the luckiest peple on earth, getting paid millions of dollars to play a game. according to my source, shannon avoids contact with these players except when he's working --- doesn't share beers and stories with them away from the ballpark, at the bar on road trips or whatever. add that hearsay to the various impressions and hints relayed by miklasz and the rest of the p-d sportswriters. the cardinals went through similar throes in 1986 and again in 1990; this season bears much in common with both of those fruitless campaigns.
- the cardinals' team era over their last 17 games is 3.39. over the first 35 games of the year, their team era was a respectable 4.10. but during the 31 games in the middle (from may 14 through june 17), the cardinals' team era was 6.39.
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Shannon
All
Good insight on Thompson
He's also not the hard thrower that LaRussa likes for the pen either. Wells and Wellemeyer fit that bill better. If Thompson can become an effective starter, he offers us a trading chip, either with him or with Maroth or Looper.
Why trade Thompson?
I agree with Larry that maybe it's just time to ship Reyes. Thompson and Wainers can be the new young gun pitchers on this club. That offers us less worry in trading Reyes and maybe we can actually get something pretty good in return.
I agree
I don't think so...
We will have:
Carpenter - a starter, DL several times
Mulder - a starter, DL several times
Wainwright - a starter/former reliever, getting hit harder this year
Reyes - a starter, can't pitch nearly as well in the show
Maroth - a starter, career of mediocrity
Wellemeyer - a former reliever
Looper - a former reliever
Thompson - a former reliever
Wells - a starter, career of less than mediocrity
Keisler - a starter, pretty bad when in the show
Narveson - a minor league starter
That's 2 starters that have spent a lot of recent time on the DL, quite a few starters that have been hit very hard a lot of times, and a couple of relievers that can start a few games.
Now, that being completely pessimistic...I do believe that everything could work out just fine with a rotation of Carpenter, Mulder, Maroth, Waino, Reyes, and/or Thompson. I just do not think we have much trade bait in that equation.
stlfan
I agree with you
I also think Thompson is the best choice to remain in the rotation after Carp returns... while he doesn't throw 95 MPH like Wellemeyer, and WonderBrad lacks Wells' "electric" stuff, he does throw strikes "down" in the zone, and he's a ground-ball machine! In other words, he gets people OUT!!! (Isn't that listed in any pitcher's "job description"?)
It would be interesting to know just which players are "unhappy"... of course, the most competitive personalities can't be happy with the team's play this season; I suspect Scotty Rolen is ticked about his own performance (i.e., lack of power) and may be grumpy about it. Of course, Shannon might not be spending much time around the players because of his (undeniably stressful) personal situation... or maybe he's just enough older than the players not to have much in common with them.
Every team needs a Reggie Sanders/Preston Wilson personality... a guy who's optimistic, joking, and keeping other players "loose". I have no idea if there's anybody on the current roster filling that role.
Ah, well... Go get 'em, Loop!
Tony on 'competition'
He's shown several times what he means when he says that there's a 'competition' for a spot, going all the way back to the Clayton/Ozzie fiasco in his first year hear up until the Wainwright/Ponson rotation spot audition last year.
And the giants starter actually looks younger than
"...but you can't like their chances"
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2007 11:10 AM EDT reply actions
Reyes & Garza
«Garza predominantly used his fastball, but he worked in his other pitches as well -- something the Twins organization has been urging him to do this season. Garza was, at first, reluctant to mix in other pitches, [...]
"They sent me to work on stuff and get my breaking stuff more consistent. I told them when I came up here that I was ready and I could throw any pitch in any count, and I did that. »
i.e. there are ways to get it done.
Garza has roughly 100x the talent that Reyes has..
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jul 7, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Pssh
Neither of those guys can hold his 'Nintendo-jock'.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2007 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
It's all about the "Nintendo Jock"
Ryan
by MikeG on Jul 7, 2007 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
What version of RBI baseball were you playing
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2007 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I loved RBI
The SBNation's Atlanta Falcons Blog
I can't believe I missed seeing Lincecum
LBoros: Tanned, Ready & Rested
If I'm Brad,
And frankly, you really don't have to be an insider to see the unhappiness on this team, if you look closely. That's in no way a slight to your source, LB, just an observation on my part; I'm not one to wear the rose-colored(or in this case, Cardinal red-colored) glasses like so many fans do. Anyway, unless this team pulls off an Astros-like comeback in the second half, it's time to look toward 2008 and beyond.
TLR's funny little quotes
AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP ROE GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
Duncan 54 13 4 0 1 8 4 1 22 1 0 1 .241 .305 .370 .675
Ludwick 53 9 3 0 1 5 1 0 13 0 2 0 .170 .185 .283 .468
Why does Ryan Ludwick get that benefit and Chris Duncan does not?
Chris now has 103 career at-bats against lefties and is hitting .223/.279/.398/.677.
Ludwick now has 187 career at-bats against lefties and is hitting .193/.245/.406/.651.
What exactly does Larussa think is GOING to happen? For a guy who loves his splits, this one is mind boggling. Does Tony want him to raise his season average to this career line, which would STILL be less than his weight?
Free Chris Duncan!
re: splits
Re: Reyes...
What's needed is a challenge trade for another struggling prospect. Pelfrey, Milledge, Quentin, Floyd all come to mind...
Yeah...
That said, I'd take him for Reyes straight up in a heart beat.
It is depressing
TLR obviously has his
The problem
I wouldn't trade Reyes unless 2 things happen
which leads to #2
2) Mark Mulder throws successfully in 2 MLB games. Acquiring Mark Buehrle makes this less critical, but until Mulder shows that he can be counted on in 2008 as a starter they shouldn't be so quick to throw away Reyes' arm.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 7, 2007 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Everyone's aware of your opinion on this
Going with youth has a downside, and that downside is that young pitchers are frustratingly inconsistent. You never know if you have Bill Pulsipher, Chris Carpenter, or Pedro Martinez. AAA stats often really can't distinguish between the three cases. Even if they get to the majors and succeed, you get the Mark Priors and Fransisco Liranos of the world.
There's every chance that he will turn it around, and it wildly oversimplifies things to put as much blame for his struggles on TLR and Duncan as you do.
I agree
We need management that willing to develop young players.
Just think what our budget would look like had we just put jrod in the outfiled instead of paying for Juan. Same production, much less cost.
Or what about 2b? Ryan would out perfom AK at this point.
When you sign free agents, get the good ones. But we need to fill out the replacement level stuff from the farm.
TLR is the reason we have wasted about 20mil over the last few seasons. He won't play young players so we overpay for the likes of Ponson, Wells, Juan, AK, PW, Belliard, Mulder, ...
TLR needs to go. His way worked when the economics of baseball were diffrent. However, they have changed and he has not changed with them. He is no longer a positive for this team.
All that money you saved by not signing Juan
Mulder and Enc have played well above replacement level, at least when healthy. PW cost marginally more than league minimum. Ponson was signed to a relatively cheap contract, too.
Juan, Wells, and AK = Soraino
He is about the only one I would have paid the $ for this offseason.
Average players are not worth $2-6m, but superstars are worth 10-15m. The reason is you can always easily replace an average player. Superstars are much harder to find.
You know who else was worth the money
Okay, how about we just leave it at
Or he could just be...
If we are going to blame La Russa and Duncan for Reyes' failures, we either have to credit them for the success of those who have done well, or blame them for the failures of other pitchers who haven't. Or acknowledge that the manager and pitching coach have a little bit to do with a pitcher's success (or failure), whereas the rest of it is the pitcher's own responsibility.
by willievinceterry on Jul 7, 2007 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't want to argue this so here is the last
Mr Boros is back!
Following Linecum all season, he has been ridiculously dominating and unbearably bad -- even when he's bad, though, his k/9 #'s are insane. The kid is talented beyond belief. His last two starts he's had 20 k's and 7 hits through through 14 ips (and he walked none in his last outing). He blew up his two previous starts before; frustratingly inconsistent rookie pitchers.
Looking forwards to watching him throw tonight, hopefully Loop is on.
A trade-off
by willievinceterry on Jul 7, 2007 7:20 PM EDT reply actions
AP the singles hitter
Looper!
Hrabosky's boner for Lincecum is ridiculous
Lincecum is overrated and should be sent down
(Yes that is a joke)
Joking or not...
by willievinceterry on Jul 7, 2007 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Schumaker
because
Well, he hit for an empty average in the
i understand
Does pitching to contact keep pitch counts down?
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-kazmir-conundrum/
The basic jist is while you have fewer pitcher per AB you end up facing more people since you give up more singles and have more people reach on errors.
I have always been of the belief that they way you keep the pitch count down is to throw strikes and not waste pitches. If they put it in play, ok. Otherwise throw 3 and move on to the next batter.
I guess in another life Albert was a ...
by Ignatius J Reilly on Jul 7, 2007 8:33 PM EDT reply actions
All you smart folks here is my question
it's simple
(seriously, though, it's more about getting into the habit of inducing ground balls that keeps a pitcher in that mindset in situations where they have runners on base. a WHIP of under 1 is pretty good, so for marginal pitchers a ground ball could either help to induce a double play or at least help minimize the damage that a line drive/deep fly ball could to)
Could not be more wrong
Flyball = slight better than 2 in 3 chance for an out.
Strikeout = 99% chance of an out.
When Izzy had the runner in scoring position a few days ago, what do you think had the better chance of standing him.
3 ground balls OR
Striking out the side like he did?
It doesn't have to be a ground ball
Every study I have ever seen shows a strong coorolation between strikeout rate and future success. If you cannot strike people out the pitcher still has a chance if they can avoid walking anyone. (See: Maddux)
Pitch to contact is a flawed theory. In the last two years the only Cards starter with better than league average results was Carpenter. Guess what, he strikes out a lot of batters and throws strikes. If they hit it ok, if they don't he punches them out and moves on to the next batter.
Pitch to contact also doesn't decrease walk rates so you have more people on base. Yes there is a chance for a DP, but at the same time there is a chance for a seeing eye hit. Basically pitching to contact puts your faith in your fielders and random chance.
I would challenge anyone to find a dominating pitcher that pitches to contact. They don't exist.
The ironic part is the batting average on balls in play is actually HIGHER for ground balls than fly balls. So if you have a runner in scoring position, going for a ground ball is about the worst thing you can do in terms of preventing him from scoring.
Duncan's success has not been from pitching to contact but rather getting pitchers to get their walk rates under control and thus having fewer base runners. That only works with pitchers that can afford to back off a bit AND had walk issues in the first place. Interesting, Wells and Wellemeyer both fit that description, Reyes does not.
Its a case of Duncan misunderstand his own success and mistaking result for cause. Sadly I doubt the old dog can learn a new trick at this point.
Soup was above average in '06
Lets check that
Suppan ERA+ 120
Mulder ERA+ 117
Morris ERA+ 104
Marquis ERA+ 103
Carpenter struck out nearly a batter per inning. He was not pitching to contact.
So while pitching in front of an exceptional defense we had two pitchers getting league average results and two doing slightly better. Without multiple gold gloves behind them Suppan and Mulder do not put up those ERAs. Look at Suppan's numbers with average defenses behind him. They are, well, average.
So once again you have one pitcher with dominate stuff, able to strike people out vastly outperforming basically four average pitchers.
Carpenter did both
Agree
Carpenter has a great sinking fastball. He threw stikes with it. If they hit it he might get a cheap out. But he didn't back off to make it easier to hit and would happily get a 3 pitch K if the batter didn't make contact.
What I think is stupid it to take a pitcher who's number 1 and 2 pitches are flyball / K type stuff and have him go to the 3rd or 4th best option with runners in base because of the "groundballs are better" theory.
I just want outs without runs. I could care less how.
Carp throws a lot of sinkers...
As for the rest of them, you're right. Good defense has to be part of the equation for the philosophy to work. Sure it's better to have five Carps (or five Peavys), but that kind of talent is hard to come by.
And that's part of the logic
Yikes
Carpenter DOES pitch to contact. Early in counts he pounds the zone with a 2-seam. If they hit it, oh well it's good enough to get an easy ground ball. His strikeouts are accidental and occur because his stuff is that good to get swing and misses. Judging those results and saying oh Suppan should go for K's because since Carpenter gets K's is plain idiotic. Suppan doesn't have that stuff. Carpenter isn't good/better because he gets strikeouts, he gets strikeouts because he is good. You have Denkinger-ed correlation/causation.
I do understand the difference
You go with the pitchers strengths and not the "groundballs for all" approach.
Believe me
Look at the "Duncan" guys who have succeeded and taken to the philosophy. Their K rate might fall, but so do the BB and HR rates. Off the top of my head Woody Williams, Carpenter, even Marquis '04/'05, Matt Morris, Simontacchi, Kile, Bottenfield etc.
Is the one sized fits all approach perfect? Not so much, but I'm not sure the Cardinals have so much success the last decade without Duncan's nobody-into-functional-starter abilities, most of which predicated on the groundball pitch to contact philosophy.
I looked a few of them up.
Slight drop in K/9 but a big drop in BB/9
Suppan
No change in k/9, slight increase in bb/9
Williams
No change in k/9, decrease in bb/9
You might be able to say he got Kile and Williams to throw more stikes, but neither had a real drop in their strikeout rates. You can argue that Suppan's numbers got worse since his walk rate went up with no increase in K rate.
Stil looking for a "pitch to contact" conversion success story, none in the list above.
This is all interesting.....
And I feel all warm and fuzzy inside because
For those of you with this on TV
AP's 38th strikeout....
by Ignatius J Reilly on Jul 7, 2007 8:45 PM EDT reply actions
LOOP's hit his 6th inning wall
After the
The Brewers might be the...
here comes 752
cooking a late dinner
HA, I just saw this
good luck with allll that.
what happened to Tony not walking Bonds????
yea
YEAH SKIPPY!!
tie ball game. nice.
pile on gents.
Did you see him sprint around the bases?
by Ignatius J Reilly on Jul 7, 2007 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm a little tired of hearing the fans boo
I'm embarrassed the booing is not louder!
by Ignatius J Reilly on Jul 7, 2007 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, the bum...
I was hoping
People
yup
i guess it's just the fact
Agree with you
maybe they are the best fans
well...best fans, who cares?
if they are i was
I don't know
You may not be old enough to have had the....
If you had met the young Henry Aaron, as a youngster yourself, if you had had the firsthand experience of witnessing his dignity, his class and, oh by the way his ball playing ability, you would have an understanding as to the utter travesty of having his record broken by the worthless (fill in the blank) that bonds is---and to have the record broken by cheating, well it is disgraceful. That's as nicely as I can state it.
by Ignatius J Reilly on Jul 7, 2007 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to mention that
i understand the outrage
I actually kind of agree with you
Booing is fun
I like the players that embrace heckling and play back with the fans -- Milton Bradley and Griffey are both pretty funny when it comes to dealing with jerks -- chances are it's nothing personal (although in Bonds' case I really do think he's an asshole), just good ol' fashion ball busting.
i could not agree more erik
the fact that Bond's the only bad guy with roids is very hypocritical. there were probably more pitchers on roids than batters any way. yet clemens get's a free ride. any way, stop booing. it's old&busted.
That was painful.
Flores threw to two righties to get to Bonds
Ugh. This is the shit I laughed at when other teams did it.
I think that's the point
Ugh. Flores.
TLR needs to go out there and grab Miles by the
The monkey probably doesnt even need to be trained
Ryan
He's sleepwalking out there
Good job, tony. Leaving the lefty in was totally worth that out.
TLR really must be trying to get fired
and of course, in the postgame interview, it'll be aaron's fault.
another one??????????
Wow
I hate to be pessimistic
Hey Tony!
by deanj on Jul 7, 2007 9:33 PM EDT reply actions
No loss to the offense if he sits.
by deanj on Jul 7, 2007 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey Scott and Albert!
by deanj on Jul 7, 2007 9:35 PM EDT reply actions
Sorry about the language.
by deanj on Jul 7, 2007 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
It is
So ,
Lets just say that I boot a few balls at SS
The keg was always the most popular player
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 7, 2007 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
As Bad
by joethejedi on Jul 7, 2007 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
You can't blame Flores
by CardFaninVA on Jul 7, 2007 9:41 PM EDT reply actions
Why is Kippy
agreed
by troycard on Jul 7, 2007 9:51 PM EDT reply actions
oh that's awesom
there's the fight some one was asking for earlier.
Shannon and Rooney were saying their catcher
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 7, 2007 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions
i think he got the plate
Fair enough. I guess we're lucky they didn't get
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 7, 2007 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Collisions
by joethejedi on Jul 7, 2007 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought the catcher always gets the glove in
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 7, 2007 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that's true - I forgot the obvious
Damn, I wish I could watch more of these games. I'm in southern Indiana w/o cable, and the only game I've seen this season was opening night. I need to spend more time at the bar when they're on national TV....
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 7, 2007 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
the ball beat him
good time
by troycard on Jul 7, 2007 9:53 PM EDT reply actions
as bad as AK is this season
LUD not a DUD there!
the Cards should be up what now? 6-3?
No kidding - I'd hate to see a second
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 7, 2007 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions
get yadi
by troycard on Jul 7, 2007 9:57 PM EDT reply actions
Well
STOP TALKING ABOUT MARK BUEHRLE
i heard he can heal the blind
that pitch has been a strike all night long
our midget SS cost us another error
why is KIPP still in there? they can't afford to let any more runs score?
Suggested Reading
Catch the Ball
and additionally for Miles:
How to Not Throw Like a Girl
apologies to all the great girl ballplayers out there...
by joethejedi on Jul 7, 2007 10:10 PM EDT reply actions
What else can this team do wrong?
A ball bounce off of an outfielder's head for a home run?
Home run on an intentional ball?
personally
OK, we've got 9 runs and 7 errors last night and
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 7, 2007 10:11 PM EDT reply actions
How the mighty have fallen
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU200607080.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU200607090.shtml
SO we could use
20 games albert
by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 7, 2007 10:15 PM EDT reply actions
Pujols
i was at that game!
and Albert get's himself out once again
game. set. match.
by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 7, 2007 10:17 PM EDT reply actions
A-Rod, cash considerations and
unless they throw in Jeter
you never trade Albert. NEVER
No I agree
two very frustrating losses
by willievinceterry on Jul 7, 2007 10:18 PM EDT reply actions
now it is.
by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 7, 2007 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
What did Taguchi do?
remember last night?
I do remember last night
Seriously
nice walk DUNK
C'mon Scotty
I'm sick of pujols
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jul 7, 2007 10:20 PM EDT reply actions
good grief
yet another very disapointing loss.
why to make a push for .500 by the break guys.
UGH.
Sloppy, horrible game.
Pujols doesn't suck
by willievinceterry on Jul 7, 2007 10:26 PM EDT reply actions
I realize that Miles and Gooch have been
i think that's what makes it worse
it's aggravating and it sucks. if ECK and Jimmy are healthy and playing, we win both games.
Or we could play th young shortstop
But TLR loves his vets
Pujols is part of the problem, too...
Pujols, on the other hand, has gone from being the best player in baseball, to Sean Casey. While he can't hit a home run in every clutch situation, he hasn't been producing the last month or so, and it has hurt the team as much as anything else. His at bat in that GIDP in the 9th wasn't exactly great. He seems like he spends more effort greeting the other team's runners at first than batting these days.
The real problem is that the team basically has $45 million locked up into 4 guys who basically aren't doing anything right now, either because they are hurt (Carp, Edmonds), or simply playing much worse than their career averages (Rolen, Pujols). And it's up to the rest of the guys, who simply aren't that great to begin with, to carry the slack. And they aren't up to the task.
Tony's not helping with his weird insistence on using Flores every time the game is on the line, either.
to defend the indefensible
Pooh should have scooped the last one for him; the middle grounder was hard hit and he made a bad mental choice to play it backhand.
The first E was of course a screw-up.
by CurtFlood on Jul 7, 2007 10:39 PM EDT reply actions
Oh no
It reminds me of something I read the other day on another Cardinals site..
"Brendon Ryan and Jarrett Hoffpauir.. two weapons in our fight against letting Aaron Miles play"





















