mashed together

by lboros on Jul 30, 2007 9:41 AM EDT in St. Louis Cardinals News

congratulations to rick hummel; condolences to mike shannon. both have been covering the cardinals for decades, day upon day upon day; and then, on a single weekend, both of their journeys reach an endpoint of a sort --- one life celebrated, one life mourned. the universe can mash things together in some extraordinarily strange combinations.

the same might be said --- on a much less significant scale --- of the hometown nine, the bi-polar el birdos (as some of you have taken to calling them). too weak to live, too strong to die. as a measure of the team's manic-depressiveness, i looked up the cardinals' record in blowouts this year (ie, games decided by 5 or more runs); they've won 14, lost 26. that's 40 games --- nearly 40 percent of the schedule. they're on pace to play 63 blowout games, which would be far and away the most in recent franchise history. since the advent of divisional play (1969), the cardinals' highest single-season total of blowout games is 54; that happened in 1971. they played in more than 50 blowouts in 3 other seasons --- 1985, 2001, and 2006:

	no of blowouts	won	lost
2007	63	22	41
1971	54	28	26
1985	53	38	15
2006	53	30	23
2001	52	32	20

2007 figures above, obviously, are projected over 162 games. you'll note that all of the other blowout-prone teams won more blowouts than they lost; three of those teams were division winners (two were pennant winners), and the other finished second. another point of interest: the bi-polar birdos have already equaled the highest total of blowout losses on this chart. that's the highest blowout-loss total by any st louis team in the entire 38-year period. with 60 games left on the schedule, the cardinals are certain to surpass that mark (probably the next time mike maroth takes the mound) and become the most blown-out club of the last 40 years --- at least. for all we know, this year's club is on its way to setting an all-time franchise record for getting its ass handed to it.

i also looked up the blowout returns for the other 15 nl clubs this year:

	no.		won		lost
cards	40	cubs	20	cards	26
marlins	34	mets	20	pirates	20
phils	33	phils	19	marlins	19
mets	32	dodgers	18	dbacks	19
astros	32	padres	17	astros	19
dbacks	30	marlins	15	nats	18
dodgers	30	rocks	15	reds	18
braves	30	brewers	15	braves	16
padres	30	cards	14	phils	14
cubs	29	braves	14	padres	13
pirates	28	astros	13	mets	12
reds	28	dbacks	11	dodgers	12
rocks	27	giants	11	rocks	12
brewers	26	reds	10	brewers	11
nats	24	pirates	8	giants	9
giants	20	nats	6	cubs	9

you'll note how the top half of the "lost" column is dominated by lousy teams; good teams don't get the snot beat out of them very often. by this standard, the cardinals --- for all the thrills they provided this weekend, and their stoic refusal to drop entirely out of the race --- are nowhere close to being a good team. in spite of this weekend's results, i still think they should be trying to trade away current-year value in exchange for future potential . . . . but that's not going to happen. for one thing, the trade market is completely dead --- quietest it has been in a long time. and even if it were smokin', the cardinals' most tradeable player says he won't waive his no-trade under any circumstances. izzy still believes: "I think we have a chance, so why do I want to run away from it? Why not be part of something special? It would be something special if we come back from this."

"special" isn't quite the right word; "miraculous" would be a lot more apt. (i wonder: has a team ever sustained 30 or more blowout losses in a season but still gone on to the postseason?) but since a trade for prospects isn't likely, i'll join the rest of you in hoping the current rag-tag roster can hold our attention for the rest of the summer. if you want a precedent, look back at last year's philadelphia phillies. on this date last year they were 49-54, almost identical to the cards' current 49-53 record; their pitching staff had allowed 535 runs, vs the cards' current total of 529. from that date forward, the phillies cut their runs-against rate by more than half a run per game (from 5.3 to 4.7) while increasing their scoring by the same amount (from 5.2 runs / game to 5.8). even with the improvement, their pitching still sucked --- they allowed the 12th-most runs in the nl over the last 59 games --- so they won the only way they could, ie by outslugging their opponents. as we saw in the two comebacks vs the brewers, that's about the only thing the cardinals can hope to do. the best they can hope for is a slight improvement out of their pitchers (and there's no reason even to expect that), but with carpenter gone it's never gonna be better than a below-average staff. but the phils had the same problem, and they managed to stay in the race until the final weekend.

if the cardinals can do the same this year, they really will have accomplished something.

if you want a reason to think there's a sliver a chance this can happen, i'll give it to you in two words: scott rolen. in the 8 games since he returned from his cortisone shot he has hit 2 homers and 3 doubles, knocking in 7 runs (including 2 game-tying ones). the exact same thing happened last october, of course --- he got the shot during the new york series, if i'm not mistaken, and immediately started hitting for power again. why it took him 90+ games to admit that his shoulder wasn't right --- and why it took the team 90+ games to recognize it --- is beyond the scope of the current investigation. suffice to say that the cardinals score more runs when he gets extra-base hits than they do when he pops up to left.

please don't misinterpret me here; i'm not trying to raise anyone's hopes. i still think the cardinals are toast. but if they're too stubborn to acknowledge it, what the hell --- i'll play along. go cards.

a final thought: look back up at the nl blowouts chart. the cubs have the most blowout wins in the league and the fewest blowout losses. . . . looks like a playoff team to me.

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Comments

Where Was

the cortisone 3 months ago???

Come on You Redbirds--Mike Shannon

by BluesDrummer85 on Jul 30, 2007 9:48 AM EDT reply actions

Paging SilentBob

How long does a cortisone shot typically last before the effects start to wear off? Isn't there a limit to the number of them you can take in a short period of time?

by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jul 30, 2007 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions

you can get a few a year

and depending on the injury type, its effects can be long lasting. I had a cortisone shot in my neck last summer (a la Larry Walker) and the pain relief helped with swelling and the injury has yet to return (I get occasional aches).

by jeff abs on Jul 30, 2007 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Edmonds had one that lasted the entire playoffs,

yes?

by sdrone on Jul 30, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Edmonds

was getting lidocaine shots in his foot in the playoffs, IIRC.

Cortisone injections results vary upon the condition and the body part. It sounds as if Scotty has some inflamed, tight scar tissue.The cortisone helps to decrease the inflammation. They're talking about other options for the scar tissue, but not til after the season.

by silent_bob on Jul 30, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Manipulation

Suffering a bony Bankart last year at a Thanksgiving football game, I had a couple of choices when I hit a wall in rehab this spring:

--cortisone
--manipulation

Cortisone, and a week off, did the trick.

Bob, if I understand correctly, they put you out and beat the hell out of your shoulder to free the scar tissue, yes?

youneverknow

by meat on Jul 30, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

They go in, put you out - then stretch the hell out of your shoulder. In ways that you wouldn't tolerate it being stretched if you were awake.

by silent_bob on Jul 30, 2007 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

No, as I remember

They were daily locals that wore off late in games.

youneverknow

by meat on Jul 30, 2007 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Ahem.

the cubs have the most blowout wins in the league and the fewest blowout losses. . . . looks like a playoff team to me.

You shut your mouth, Larry. I can take you saying the Cardinals are toast but I don't want to hear any talk of the Cubs and playoffs until they've reached their centennial after next year.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jul 30, 2007 9:53 AM EDT reply actions

The real irony is

by beating up the Brew Crew this weekend, we have greatly helped the small bears.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 30, 2007 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions

LOUD NOISES!

I don't want to think like that (even though i know you are right).

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jul 30, 2007 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

How to win Central. Never say never. BUT....

The BEST chance (still unlikely) that the Cards have of at least tying for the division championship now is to win most of their remaining games with the Cubs.

IF the Cardinals won 7 of their remaining 10 games vs. the Cubs, then they would have only one more loss than the Cubs and 2 victories fewer. That would put them 1.5 games behind the Cubs in the standings. So the Cardinals would have to play only a little better than the Cubs in all of their remaining games to tie for the division lead or win it by the end of the regular schedule.

Given that the Cubs starting rotation has performed at a much better level than the Cardinal rotation, this thin chance that the Cardinals will overtake the Cubs hinges mostly on whether or not the Cardinals' rotation can either make a dramatic turnaround (quite unlikely) or be bolstered by the acquistion of an impact starter (very unlikely).

Looking at the rotation more closely, it is apparent how unlikely it is that the Cards can overtake the Cubs, who have the 2nd best ERA in the NL:

Wainwright
Can he avoid the kind of loss he suffered vs the Cubs this week?

Looper
Can he recapture his early season form?

Wells
Can he keep pitching as well as he has the last several games?

Reyes
Has he finally found a groove that will be consistent from here on, and are he and Duncan/LaRussa aligned now on how he will pitch?

Maroth
Can he fix whatever has been tipping his pitches and reach the level of performance he had vs. the Mets in his first Cardinal game?

Mulder
Will he return in top form by August 17, so he can pitch in the 4-game Cub series starting then and the 6-game series starting September 14, displacing the least effective of these four pitchers: Looper, Wells, Reyes, Maroth?

All this COULD happen (it is mathematically possible), but it would take an extraordinary turnaround in the Cardinal rotation and, perhaps, the same kind of inspired play and clutch hitting and relief pitching we saw in the last three games vs. the Brewers.

In short, to win the NL Central this year would be as unlikely as winning the World Series last year after a miserable September. But, wait, did that REALLY happen, or was it just a dream?

Whatever. Dream on.

by CardsWin on Jul 30, 2007 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Did Cards really win WS last year?

I just asked Keith Law and he says 'No'.

We're doomed!

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Keith, meet Isaac.

Newton's Laws matter more than Keith's. What goes up must come down, like the Cardinals the last three games, Keith says, but Isaac says it is possible for continued ascendance if the trajectory has a vector with sufficient force to escape the pull of earth's gravity and either go into orbit or "shoot the moon". Problem is, without Carpenter as our "booster rocket", will this team have enough thrust to keep moving higher, or will the team eventually succumb to the gravity of their situation?

by CardsWin on Jul 30, 2007 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Where we go from here

As alway, good analysis and interesting looks at the data. I agree that the playoffs are highly unlikely for the Cardinals, but there are some glimmers of hope.

2004 Rolen isn't coming back, but he's still a talented player, and we have lots of cortisone.
Reyes showed a flash of what we hope for. The bullpen came through, and maybe Maroth and Wells can claw their way to mediocrity (less hopeful on that point).

Anyway, fingers crossed and hoping for the miracle.

by madridbend on Jul 30, 2007 9:55 AM EDT reply actions

we have lots of cortisone

nice. :)

by john vb on Jul 30, 2007 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

somebody's said it before, but:

cortisone all around.

In fact, I believe somebody said "inject Jim Edmonds everywhere medically possible."

by lordsummer on Jul 30, 2007 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Cortisone Shots

Why do we always get excited when a player gets his cortisone shot and starts actually performing better? This almost always happens.

And then, almost as regularly after a couple week up-tick the player starts to get the pain back in whatever joint the cortisone was injected into. See Larry Walker, Jim Edmonds, or pretty much any banged up fielder we do this to.

With that said, it was a great weekend for games. My dad was in town and he's much more willing to follow the games and get worked up about wins and losses than I am this season. It was cool to see the two come from behind wins if just to see how happy it made him. I realized that I'd really like for them to have a streak of a couple more good games and get back in it.

While I don't think that realistically we have any chance, if this team did somehow crawl back up the standings to get into the playoffs (and keep the Cubs/Brewers from winning the division) it would crack me up for the entire off-season even if they got swept out in the first round.

by dontEATnachos on Jul 30, 2007 10:12 AM EDT reply actions

I wanted

a cortisone shot after hearing the Cards were behind 10-2 in the 8th Friday night.

Watched Sunday's game with my dad. When Wells walked the lead-off hitter in the 3rd, I said, "That's the start of a 3-run inning for Wells." Was I happy about my prediction? No. Also, it took a fluke infield hit off the 1st-base bag to keep the inning alive so the Brew Crew could score 3 runs.

Fortunately they came back. 6 games out with 9 weeks to go. Doable. But . . . they need some series sweeps and they need help. Because of the pitching, the sweeps are unlikely.

TSF

by TedSimmonsFan on Jul 30, 2007 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

The Cubs' offense

is pretty middle-of-the-road. Could it be random variance that they have 20 blowout wins?

by ryanisforever on Jul 30, 2007 10:16 AM EDT reply actions

pitching...

there pitching has been pretty damn good, not too hard to get a "blowout" win if you only give up 1-2 runs...

by duncansarmy on Jul 30, 2007 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

You should also

probably consider some sort of park factor here. A couple of three runs jacks up into the jet stream and out of the shoebox onto Waveland, coupled with a solid, or ahem, fluky outing and you've got yourself a blowout.

by plh903 on Jul 30, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

wait...that doesnt' make sense at all.

then, why do they have the fewest blowout defeats. the other team also plays at wrigley. plus, the cubs haven't been hitting that many homeruns, especially of the 3-run variety. thinking about your post, it makes their pitching seem even more impressive.

however, we can all relax and wait for the joy that will be the cub collapse.

by ortic jones on Jul 30, 2007 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand that

both teams play in the same park, but it probably lends itself to more random variation. That's the point. The Cubs park is playing like a high offensive environment this year.

Look at the BABIPs of their pitchers. It makes it seem fluky, and like they've had very good defense. Last I checked anyway.

Also, in one of the diaries from last night I actually made the point that I thought blowout wins were qualities of a good team. Oddly enough. I figured that the park could obfuscate the issue somewhat though.

by plh903 on Jul 30, 2007 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions

There was an article about how the Cubs

constructed their pitching staff in the Chicago Tribune last week. I'm going on memory, so if I got something wrong, I'm sure someone else saw it too. In the past they always looked for sinkerballers because of Wrigley Fields home run tendencies. They could never find enough of those kinds of pitchers, so they decided to sign pitchers that they felt were good pitchers that batters had trouble getting good swings against--and at the same time made improvements on their defense. So they sign Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, and already have Zambrano. Their farm gave them
Hill and Marshall. I don't do numbers, but I'm home in the daytime, and I often check the Cub game--and they play very good defense at all positions, except every fly ball is kind of an adventure with Soriano-but he has a strong, accurate throwing arm and has gunned down several baserunners that challange him. Lou also takes particular care to get the starters out BEFORE they give up too many runs-becuase he doesn't want them to get mentally down. Marquis still has his blow-ups-spectacular blow-ups- but Lou usually knows the right time to get him out of there. Add the perfect additions from their farm system, the addition of super sub Mark DeRosa-they play him everywhere but pitcher and catcher-and the players that already have some playoff experience along with a good managaer, they clearly are the team to beat. There only weak spot is power, and most days they generate enough baserunners that it isn't a problem...I don't even hate the Cubs anymore.....their fans are obnoxious, but players behave in a classy way....well, except Soriano. Maybe these changes show up in some of those numbers?

by jillsinmo on Jul 30, 2007 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions

It is interesting

As for the only shot at making the playoffs, better pitching, it is tough to look at the staff and figure out where we can expect an improvement to come from.

Maroth: I guess he is pitching about as poorly has he can. He is bound the improve right?

Wells: Looks like he is what he is: inconsistent.

Wainwright: An inconsistent rookie, but the potential for a run similar to the one he had since the beginning of June gives a shot of hope.

Reyes: The team has to let him start for Reyes to impact the standings.

Looper: Who knows? Has been decent this season. League average all the way I say.

If you, like I do, figure the above starting five give the Cards the best chance to win, I guess there is a bit of hope in there.

To my eye, the best chance that the Cards put together a run lies on the right arms of Wells and Reyes. If either can put together their considerable talents, the Cards might have enough combined with a league average Looper and slightly above league average Wainwright to win more than they loose.

by JMedwick on Jul 30, 2007 10:21 AM EDT reply actions

WonderBrad?

What about Thompson? I think he's been just as good as Looper, and I like him over Wells in terms of consistency.

by john vb on Jul 30, 2007 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

I'll take Brad over each of those except for Wainwright.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 30, 2007 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

You are WAY too down on Wainwright

his last start featured the Cubs dinking and dunking him on good pitches until they suddenly had a huge lead. He was at a career high in strikeouts in that game.

Since June 1:
W L G GS CG SHO IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA WHIP

5 4 10 10 0 0 65 60 26 25 22 40 5 3.46 1.26

He is averaging:

6.5 IP
10 Hits
2.5 Runs
2.2 Walks
4 Strikeouts
.5 Homeruns

3.46 ERA in the NL is Top 10-ish, not league average.

I understand what you are saying as far as looking at the season as a whole. However, ever since his meltdown in Los Angeles, Wainwright has been well above league average.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

So...

In about 6.5 innings per start he is allowing 12.2 baserunners or around 1.87 baseruners per inning.

Don't get me wrong, he is pitching much better and I think this is part of the learning process. How to balance the use of his pitches, how to locate them, how to get by when he can't locate the curve...

Call me crazy, but I think Wainwright has been a bit lucky since June 1st.

by JMedwick on Jul 30, 2007 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Calculation error by Hardcore

It should be 6 hits per start over his last 10 games. That would make his WHIP 1.26 - very good.

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Jul 30, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I miscalculated the Hits

but I got the WHIP right :D

Yes, it should be 6 hits per start.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

He's

striking out more, and walking less. Where is luck in that? That's just better pitching.

He had poor control for the first half of the year, but since gaining consistency in his control, he's improved drastically. If those numbers hadn't changed, I'd agree that he's getting lucky, but they have.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 30, 2007 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

ERROR ALERT

60 hits in 10 games is not 10 hits per game, it should be 6 hits per game.

So only 10+ baserunners per 6+ innings, a more respectable 1.26 WHIP

by Keep your hands off on Jul 30, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Izzy or Izn't he?

Another way to look at the blowouts is to rank teams by SVO. The Cardinals are at the bottom of the stack (both leagues), which can make you wonder why Izzy wouldn't consider a trade for real opportunity. Although Cleveland does not make much sense on this basis, only moving up to 18th on the list.

It is interesting to see the Tigers and Brewers on top of this list, while the Mets and Yanks are near the bottom with us.

I'm not a proponent of moving Izzy, but given that he didn't get a chance to pitch last year, and that this club doesn't project well this year, I'm not sure I understand his reluctance to get a real chance to pitch in the playoffs again. Happy to have him, but a little surprised just the same.

Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on Jul 30, 2007 10:22 AM EDT reply actions

Count me

in the Not Surprised camp. In the P-D article, Izzy is quoted as saying he talked to his wife and his parents about leaving. He is a Southern Illinois native, why would his family encourage him to leave? I know the booing last year was upsetting to his wife, but she probably doesn't want to leave the area either.

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 30, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Mark Mulder loved the walk-off celebrations

I'm sure, but for a guy who is going to start his rehab clock and get some starts in, I wish he'd go down to Florida already. Even if he is the Mark Mulder of last August, hell, that's better than Mike Maroth.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 10:34 AM EDT reply actions

I was under the impression

that "consistency" was the key to winning a lot of games (which is a key contributor to making the playoffs). I swear I've read articles to this effect, but all I can find right now is Jim Baker's spoof article at BP... on a side note, BP's search function is awful...

Intuitively, comparing 2 teams that score the same number of runs, the one who "wastes" fewer runs by tacking them on to 5 runs leads is going to win more games, and the same applies for teams who give up the same number of runs (but one team loses a lot of blowouts). IE a team that scores two runs one day and ten the next will win a lot fewer games than a team that scores 6 both days.

Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jul 30, 2007 10:45 AM EDT reply actions

Here's one from THT

that I read a while back. It's not as in depth as I'd like but it's not terrible:

Linky

It regarding the consistency of starting pitchers. It's not data that I would extrapolate to a team level necessarily.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jul 30, 2007 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

good find

seems that the opposite is true- inconsistency is better. Although like most of Gassko's articles I have no idea what math he did; he just shows the excel chart and states his conclusion.

Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jul 30, 2007 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Joe Morgan

tells me this every week.

by plh903 on Jul 30, 2007 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

to that end

the Cardinals have been near the bottom of the NL in run differential (scored vs given) most of the year... currently nestled in the 14th spot (-77)and yet they have the 10th best record.
We DO seem to have been blown out a lot this season, but one way or another we are 'getting more with less' so to speak than most other teams in the NL:

team differential record logic
Cubs + 61 5th ( - 4 )
Padres + 48 4th ( - 2 )
Phillies + 43 7th ( - 4 )
Mets + 37 1st ( + 3 )
Brewers + 36 3rd ( + 2 )
Dodgers + 33 2nd ( + 4 )
Braves + 28 8th ( - 1 )
Rockies + 9 9th ( - 1 )
Giants - 10 12th ( - 3 )
D'Backs - 31 6th ( + 4 )
Marlins - 31 11th ( even )
Reds - 58 15th ( - 3 )
Astros - 62 13th ( even )
CARDS - 77 10th ( + 4 )
Pirates - 98 16th ( - 1 )
Nationals - 108 14th ( + 2 )

by CurtFlood on Jul 30, 2007 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Starting pitchin'

Our hopes, as small as they may be, have to center on our starting pitching. Right now, we have Looper, Wainwright, Reyes and Wells to count on, and that isn't much in the consistency department. I would like to see us make a push for Matty Mo, who is supposedly available. He could help us this year, and next. His recent numbers in S.F. haven't been great, but maybe just maybe he could give a spark to our starters.

go crazy folks..........

by wwbd on Jul 30, 2007 11:07 AM EDT reply actions

Keep Hope Alive!!!

(Naaahhhhh....)

While I don't expect the Cardinals to actually win the Central, they could make things interesting with a good road trip this week against some pretty bad ballclubs.

"My kingdom for (reliable) starting pitching!!!" (Okay, Shakespeare didn't write that, but every GM in both leagues is thinking that!) Fercryin'outloud, I read (on Fox Sports, I think) that the "hottest" name on the trade market is... Kyle Lohse!!! EE-gad....

Rest the body today, and pound those Buccos ta'morra, boys!

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Jul 30, 2007 11:08 AM EDT reply actions

The fightin' took a chance

and acquired Lohse; he's had a few decent starts for Cincy... and a number of bad ones. He's been a "which Kyle Lohs will show up" type.

by CurtFlood on Jul 30, 2007 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

To me, it seems unlikely

that we'll do anything before the trade deadline. Maybe we'll send Percival somewhere for an A baller but the fact that we appear to be on the fringes of the race will affect Walt's decision-making.

We're not really contenders, though right now we appear to be and, unfortunately, we don't really have any sellable parts. I could see Looper drawing some mild interest -- he's been OK and could go back into the pen for the playoffs but Larry's probably right that his salary will be cheap for a starting pitcher next year. But they wouldn't trade him anyway, with us appearing to be in the race and him being one of our halfway dependable starters.

by chuckb on Jul 30, 2007 11:09 AM EDT reply actions

It

really makes me mad that we're standing pat with Enc and Looper. Those guys right there are $11.5 million not worth spending next year.

We could definitely use that money, and both of them are replaceable for the rest of the season.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 30, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Juan should go...period!

He's not as bad as most claim, but if we can get a little salary relief, we should do it, even if it means playing Ludwick almost every day.

by chuckb on Jul 30, 2007 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

considering

what teams are offering up for Dye, he would definitely be worth trading. Not only for the savings, but we could probably get someone half-way decent.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 30, 2007 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Joe Strauss says the Angels

were looking at Juan until this weekend. Now the team has changed their stance.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Via THE BOOK blog

a Hit Tracker excel tool is now available for download.

Being at work prevents me from taking more than just a glance at it, but it looks bleeping complicated.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jul 30, 2007 11:43 AM EDT reply actions

That's nifty

I can't imagine when I'd ever want to use it, but pretty cool.

by liam on Jul 30, 2007 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Very interesting

that Albert is in the top five in "No doubt" home runs while Ryan Howard is in the top five of "Lucky" home runs and Carlos Lee and Barry Bonds are both in the top five of "Just Enough" HRs.

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 30, 2007 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

First big trade...

Teixeira with Ron Mahay to Braves for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus and two pitching prospects.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7074846

by svengali on Jul 30, 2007 12:14 PM EDT reply actions

sure

would be nice to have Andrus on his way over here instead.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 30, 2007 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Kip Wells tipping pitches?

In the Brewers broadcast yesterday the color commentator noticed that Kip Wells, a renowned 'grunter', only grunts when he throws off-speed pitches.

The looked at it for the entire inning and it held true. Grunt, curveball, no grunt, fastball.

Perhaps Dave and Kip should look at that. Maybe it explains why other teams are hitting really good pitches from Kip.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 1:00 PM EDT reply actions

Possibly

but even they said that the batter probably wouldn't be able to hear the grunt and respond before the pitch got there. Then I heard him grunt on a fastball. I don't really think they can do anything about it. To me, it's all about throwing strikes and location -- when he's got it, he gets outs. When he loses it or doesn't have it, he doesn't.

by chuckb on Jul 30, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

who's that girl tennis player

that grunts like a bear ever time she swings her racket?

by CurtFlood on Jul 30, 2007 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

There are

actually several female tennis players who make a lot of noise when they swing, but you're probably thinking of Maria Sharapova. She's the tall, blonde, Russian girl who does the camera commercials.

Do you hear that? That's the sound of my dreams being crushed.

by the red baron on Jul 31, 2007 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions

This week is key

Playing Pittsburgh and Washington couldn't come at a better time. The good news is that the Cardinals only sweep this year was against the Pirates.

Bad news is the Cards have already matched their longest winning streak of the year.

"Well, no one's perfect. Only one guy was ever perfect, Jack, and they nailed him to a tree!"

by lightbulb on Jul 30, 2007 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

heres a signing for ya

Adam ":Pacman" jones to TNA..haha
http://www.fhwrestling.com/home/2007/07/30/tna-reportedly-signs-suspended-nfl-player/

07 Cards more drama than a daytime soap

by punchinjudy on Jul 30, 2007 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe overly optimistic

But I have a good feeling by the end of the week Cards will be 3 games back

by zolak16 on Jul 30, 2007 1:19 PM EDT reply actions

Mulder?

When is he scheduled to come back?

by Pujols on Jul 30, 2007 1:40 PM EDT reply actions

He is supposed to face batters this week

and start his 30-day clock of rehab. The Cardinals (TLR) refuse to set a date on when he can or will come back.

They equate it to Spring Training right now. He's going to start facing hitters and then ramp up to 'start the season'.

So, whatever the traditional calendar is for ST, that's where he is. Could be a few days quicker or slower. Just have to see how those rehab assignments go.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

If Mulder comes back

and is actually useful this season, it will be a miracle. I just hope they don't keep throwing him out there if his first couple starts are busts (which they probably will be). I'll be thrilled if he's really ready to pitch next year--and from some articles I've read, even that should be considered 50/50.

by rockin redbird on Jul 30, 2007 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

The Rangers farm system...

just got completely re-stocked. The Braves gave up a ton for half a year of Tex.

- Y. Molina stole third

by TriplePlay on Jul 30, 2007 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

they get more than that

he's signed through the end of next year. Given that he's something of a local boy (went to college at either Georgia Tech or U-GA), they probably have the inside track on an extension

by tdawg on Jul 30, 2007 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

Andruw is a free agent at the end of the year. Smoltz is near retirement. Wickman and Chipper are pretty old as well.

This is the year for that team, and they know they have a shot at taking down the Mets. I like the move. The Braves may have quickly become the team to beat.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 30, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

and I think

the Mets are vulnerable. Maybe it's because I dislike them (Mets) so much, but I think both the Braves and the Philles have a great shot at them

by CurtFlood on Jul 30, 2007 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions

If they aren't trading Izzy

shouldn't they work to get him to sign an extension? Instead of $8 M for next year, maybe get the amount reduced but give him a second year? Maybe 2-years, $11 M? Make it $6 M next year and $5 M in 2009?

If we are keeping Izzy, we have to get relief from his contract next year. If they aren't picking up the 2008 $8M option, you don't want to get into a bidding war once he hits the market.

In light of the Edmonds deal and Izzy's health questions, an extension beyond 1 year is always risky and perhaps should be avoided. However, if he is staying then let's not end up in another Suppan/Renteria situation.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 2:05 PM EDT reply actions

I see no reason to have a premium closer-

- not on the 2007 or 2008 Cardinals anyway. My guess is 2007 is Izzy's last hurah. Let him walk and milk Troy for a year or two (just so the games don't get too unbearable). Ortherwise just find a pitcher with a funky delivery who throws strikes. Heck, that has worked a couple of times.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 30, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I think we'll

pick up the option and worry about signing him to an extension next year, if it's appropriate. There's no reason to jump the gun, ala Carpenter, in light of Izzy's age and injury history.

by chuckb on Jul 30, 2007 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Izzy

If he can duplicate this years production, $8 million is not a bad deal. They may be planning on Perez being the everyday closer in 2009.
I think the re-working Jimmy's deal was b/c Colby was further away from being ML ready than is Perez. We needed 2 more yrs of a CF but only one more yr of a closer.
Just a thought.

by toris34 on Jul 30, 2007 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

if I had MY way

we'd put grease on the bottom of his feet... and give him a shove

by CurtFlood on Jul 30, 2007 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Just realized

that we have a winning month going on. 14-11 at the end of the day on Sunday. So no matter what happens at Pittsburgh, we close out July with a winning record for the month. Hooray!

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 30, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions

Hooray indeed

I'm new here, but what an awesome site. Cardsgirl, I think we've been climbing in July and will only continue to improve. I drove from Michigan to St. Louis to see all 3 games this past weekend and I saw 3 wins. Turning point in the season. I'm so excited to see how it plays out.

Scott Rolen: "He could cover third base AND shortstop." --Renteria

by Andie203 on Jul 30, 2007 3:07 PM EDT reply actions

You are

a very fortunate girl, Andie. Those were three awesome games. Whereabouts in MI do you live?

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 30, 2007 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Currently

I live in Grand Rapids, but only for the summer. Then it's back to school in South Bend, IN.

Scott Rolen: "He could cover third base AND shortstop." --Renteria

by Andie203 on Jul 30, 2007 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Are you a student

at Notre Dame? Not trying to be nosy, but my curiosity is due to the fact that I live just north of South Bend - in Berrien County, MI. If you go to school in South Bend, then you are very well aware that the area is a hotbed of Cubbiness. Ugh!

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 30, 2007 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

As is

The university in West Lafayette, IN. It's disgusting.

by billyhoyel on Jul 30, 2007 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel your pain.

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 30, 2007 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

I do, in fact, go to Notre Dame. And I grew up in Iowa. The Cubs fans are everywhere! Blech.

Scott Rolen: "He could cover third base AND shortstop." --Renteria

by Andie203 on Jul 30, 2007 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Close, but no cigar

I guess I know the secret to this season now. I don't watch or listen to games when the Cards fall behind early, and they come back to win! I was baling hay Saturday afternoon, listened to the whole game up through Eck's great catch to end the Brewer's ninth as I was driving out of the field. I got out, shut the gate behind me, started the 2 mile trip to home, and my radio turned to static during the Card's comeback in the bottom of the ninth. Missed the best comeback of the year!

Similarly missed all of game 2 at family's house who don't get FSNMW, then, missed Sunday's game because the local station that used to carry those isn't this year. Again, great comeback, and I'm absent.

However, thrilling as Saturday and Sunday's games were, it wasn't enough. If we had taken 2 of 3 from the small bears (like we could/should have), I would be much more encouraged. Only 3.5 and 5 back is much better than 5.5 and 6.

I think we should still go with the "sell with an eye to the future" approach. If we can get prospects, especially at our most needed positions (re: not 4th outfielders) for Eck, Juan, Troy, J-Rod, ?? then make the deal. Don't do trades just to "dump salary", but if we can get good return on some of our vets, do so.

by ArkansasTravs on Jul 30, 2007 4:35 PM EDT reply actions

John Rodriguez is on the DL

if we can get someone to take him, we should be arrested.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Johnny Rod just had knee surgery

partially torn ligament.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Oops, my bad

I should have checked before posting. Anyway, the point is, we have several folks who are, more or less, replaceable for the remainder of the year and trading them would give youngsters (well, OK, some are not that young) a chance to show what they can do everyday so we know better what holes we need to fill (other than pitching) next year.

'Course, if we think we can still win, the same players are NOT so easily replaceable.

by ArkansasTravs on Jul 30, 2007 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I take a little credit too, AT...

after the two losses to the Cubs early last week I folded it in. Threw my daily stat book away... haven't been listening to games. And what do they do? They start playing well. Harumph.

I'm with you on peddling age for youth... and (my loss, I'm sure) I am not excited by this recent surge. It's a kiss on the cheek, but that's all it's going to amount to.
Even IF we do well vs the lowly Pirates and Nats, after THAT we still have 54 more tough games. I don't see it.

But for the good of the team, I will keep on being cynical.

by CurtFlood on Jul 30, 2007 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Can you imagine...

how stocked our farm system could be if we traded our four above average relievers?

Franklin, Izzy, Springer, Percival. Now I realize we wont be trading any of them, and i'm cool with that, but if the return from Linebrink was any indication, those 4 could land us probably 8-10 pretty decent prospects. Just day dreaming though...

- Y. Molina stole third

by TriplePlay on Jul 30, 2007 4:52 PM EDT reply actions

Won't trade Izzy, Frankling, or Springer

But I don't see why we wouldn't trade Percival. Apparently the Indians are interested.

by stl tyler on Jul 30, 2007 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Phillies aquire Kyle Lohse

I'd imagine this means they're out on Reyes, if they were even really in on him to begin with.

Phillies sent the Reds Matt Maloney, a 23 year old AA lefty.

by stl tyler on Jul 30, 2007 5:12 PM EDT reply actions

The Braves aren't effing around....

First Tex, then Dotel, and now they are working on Bronson Arroyo. John Schuerholz wants the NL East back.

- Y. Molina stole third

by TriplePlay on Jul 30, 2007 6:08 PM EDT reply actions

The smell of opportunity at the deadline.......

by jillsinmo on Jul 30, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Arroyo

Trading for Bronson is the type of the deal the Cardinals should be looking at.

Not him, specifically, but a player with 2 or 3 years left on their current deal. He is a tad pricey right now but Jocketty could be a buyer right now just to get this team a league average or above starter.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

absolutely agree

arroyo has been abused something terribly due the Cincinnati's lack of bullpen this year (#3 in MLB PAP behind zambrano and harang). He's a 6 inning pitcher and they keep trying to stretch him to 7 or 8. Check out his inning/OPS+ splits:



OPS+

76     Innings 1-3  (22G, 270PA)

104    Innings 4-6  (22G, 262PA)

171    Innings 7-9  (15G, 68PA)

or by pitch count:



OPS+         Pitch

98            1-25          (21G, 136 PA)

52            26-50         (21G, 148 PA)

105           51-100        (21G, 252 PA)

228 (!!!)     100+          (14G, 47 PA)

As frustrated as I get with TLR not realizing that Wells is too tired to pitch the 6th, over and over again, watching Narron etc try to drag arroyo into the 7th 14 times when he is obviously hitting a wall must be murder. He had quality starts in 15/22 appearances this year and would have been 18/22 if they hadn't tried to get 7 or 8 innings out of him in the other games; all 4 of the games that he lost the quality start before the 7th inning happened in a row at the end of May/early June...

Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jul 30, 2007 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions

grrr preview

"pitch count" G should be 22G, 22G, 22G, 14G. "Innings" G are correct. stats from baseball reference

Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jul 30, 2007 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with what you guys said

about Arroyo. I live in Reds country and see him a lot on TV. I like him... but he's a fairly small guy and does get tired. He's kinda like Jeff Weaver without the head case problems.
He'd do even better with Yadi as his catcher.

by CurtFlood on Jul 30, 2007 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions

They would hate him

tremendous fly ball pitcher -- one of the most fly-ball prone in the big leagues. Doesn't seem to fit w/ the organizational strategy at all.

by chuckb on Jul 31, 2007 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Wasn't Arroyo

among the league leaders (along with Marquis) in giving up homers last year? He gave up 31. That would make sense if he is a fly-baller in a band box. Busch tends toward the pitcher friendliness, so a guy like Arroyo could conceivably do better here. Not saying that we should pursue him, just saying.

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 31, 2007 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah.....they need to get over

this idea that the only way to make an out is to pound it into the ground. Fly ball pitchers are not a good fit for some parks, but it would be okay here. There is not much of a supply of good pitchers-just look for pitchers that throw strikes. Walks hurt you more than fly balls anyway.

by jillsinmo on Jul 31, 2007 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions

J.S.

is being really aggressive. I know how successful he has been in the past, but you have to wonder how much this will hurt the franchise in years to come. That being said, their farm system seems to replenish itself rather quickly

by Hammondsbird on Jul 30, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

True

It seems like they mortgage away the future every yearm, yet still have more prospects left.

by saladdays on Jul 30, 2007 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

They seem to stockpile 'em, then

clear them all out at once. The replacements for what they are trading are probably already in their low a minor leagues right now. They have done this for years.....I really wouldn't worry too much about the Braves having what they need in the future. If only we had that situation.....

by jillsinmo on Jul 30, 2007 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Dunno if this has been mentioned,

but it was nice to see the Hancocks drop their lawsuit today. One less thing for Mike to deal with while he's missing his wife.

Shannon's, the manager, the tow truck people and the "disabled" motorist are all off the hook... that is, if they ever were on it.

by baw on Jul 30, 2007 6:29 PM EDT reply actions

Very nice

to see. Nothing good could come out of that lawsuit.

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 30, 2007 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Joe Strauss says Cardinals are now considering

rentals. They were praying on Friday night that the Phillies would take Anthony Reyes off there hands. They were looking at maybe moving Juan to teams like Anaheim, etc.

Then Saturday happened.

Now Reyes is staying. They are keeping their relief corps. They are trying to find a starting pitcher on the market. Nothing is even remotely 'imminent' however they are looking at teams like the White Sox, etc for a starting pitcher to help them.

The team believes that this time next week, they should by within 4 games of 1st place.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 30, 2007 7:40 PM EDT reply actions

But

that could be possible even without rentals!

Unless we can get someone through 2008, or are getting rid of Looper or Enc for monetary reasons, I'm not going to be happy with what we do this trade deadline.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 30, 2007 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions

do you have a link

to the strauss info?

by lboros on Jul 30, 2007 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

He was on the radio with Bernie

ESPN 1380.

He said he hadn't spoken to Walt today but yesterday the entire direction of what they were trying to do changed.

They see themselves as buyers.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 31, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Story up now

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/1E4BBCBEC77100AD862573290013FD20 ?OpenDocument

Something he touched upon on the radio (the DRays but didn't come right out and say):

Tampa Bay has told clubs that it has no untouchable players, which would suggest lefthander Scott Kazmir is available. Kazmir, 23, long has been touted as a cornerstone for the Devil Rays' future and would command a package of players.

He said the Cardinals and DRays could end up be dancing partners since it would be under the radar but made no mention of Kazmir.

Depending on how expensive the package got, Walt should try 'almost' everything in his power to swing THAT deal.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 31, 2007 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions

That

would make my day.

Boooo-urns.

by Alxfritz on Jul 31, 2007 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions

To Hell with your day, Alex!

That would make my year!

I don't need no instructions to know how to rock.

by the red baron on Jul 31, 2007 7:08 AM EDT up reply actions

thanks for the link hc

kazmir, mmmm . . . . . .

by lboros on Jul 31, 2007 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Cliff Lee

I find the Cliff Lee portion of that article very interesting as well. If the situation with him in Cleveland has really turned that bad, he might be picked up relatively cheap. I posted the other day that I thought he would make a good target, and it sounds as if it may not take as much to get him as I had originally thought.

Do you hear that? That's the sound of my dreams being crushed.

by the red baron on Jul 31, 2007 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions

There was this little thing he did.....he

was getting beat badly, and was taken out of a game. On his way back to the dugout he was cascaded with boos by the Cleveland fans. He tipped his cap to them.......then he was sent back to AAA. So yeah, they may need to move him even if they'd rather let him work out his problems....I would worry if he might be hurt-the drop off of his performance was so sudden and so drastic.....

by jillsinmo on Jul 31, 2007 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Lee

He's having an odd season. He was doing fine, then had two blow ups (May 23rd and June 2nd), appeared to have turned the corner than totally hit a wall leading up to his disastrous July. Me thinks a change of scenery would be beneficial. This years Weaver?

Boooo-urns.

by Alxfritz on Jul 31, 2007 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Rentals

would be a huge mistake. Unless I'm mistaken, there's no one out there on the market who can make an appreciable difference w/o giving up a fortune. And that would be an enormous mistake.

by chuckb on Jul 30, 2007 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Rowand licks Lilly

Nice to get up on the cubs. We need a lot of help like that to get into a race. Just getting up to .500 will take a streak.

Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on Jul 30, 2007 7:57 PM EDT reply actions

another one over the wall

anybody else here?

Fan for Life. Go Cards.

by Birds on the Bat on Jul 30, 2007 8:24 PM EDT reply actions

I'm up

for seeing Lilly get lit up (especially after his performance against the Cards last week). Mets best be watching their backs, the Phillies and Braves are closer than they appear in their rear view mirror.

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 30, 2007 8:39 PM EDT reply actions

Bourn

Probably don't wanna trade for him

by zolak16 on Jul 30, 2007 8:40 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, but

now that both him AND Victorino are hurt, looks like they could use some Juan Encarnacion . . .

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 30, 2007 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions

ESPN radio

had some lady hosting the pulse and she had Keith law and...dont like that guy but he mentioned the braves, said the reason they are cleaning the cuboard out is shurholtz is gonna retire..might be this yr but he doubts it thinks it will be after 08

Cubs mentioned in on Gerad laird what is their sudden passions for catchers? Think they regret moving barrett? even though they streaked after that..

07 Cards more drama than a daytime soap

by punchinjudy on Jul 30, 2007 9:43 PM EDT reply actions