What Jockety can and can't do....

by Irishman on Jul 15, 2007 12:42 PM EDT Comment 53 comments

In reading some of the posts in the last few days/weeks, I have seen a number of people suggesting that this guy should be fired, this guy should be traded, this guy should be DFA'd, this guy should be called up, etc. To be totally honest about it, it's been really frustrating to see such short-sighted, impractical, and at times silly suggestions being posted. So here is my take on what can and can't happen.

1.) Kip Wells. His contract runs through the rest of the season, he is owed just under $2M. You can either keep him in the rotation, move him to the bullpen, or DFA him. Let's be clear first about understanding what it means to DFA someone. you still owe him what's left on his contract. He can accept his assignment to the minor leagues (his choice), you can try to trade him, or he is released. which ever is taken, it must be done within 10 days. If someone picks him up after he is released, they agree to pay him a certain salary through the rest of this year. any difference between that money and what is owed to him under his Cardinals contract has to be made up by the Cardinals. So the decision has to be made...is there any value to keeping him on the team. I don't think so, myself, so I would DFA him and hope someone picks him up and thereby, picks up some of his salary for the remainder of the year. He has clearly been the worst pitcher on the team (if not the league) this year, it is reasonable to assume just about anyone else could do as well, if not better, than Kippy has....

2.) Encarnacion. Signed through the end of nextyear, owed roughly $2.5 for the rest of this season, and $6M next year. The common suggestion 'round here is to trade him. lboros recently had a nice piece on this history of trades involving Encarnacion, and the prevailing truth is that he does not bring a lot of value back in the trade market. I believe that, at best, all you could get in return for him would be a 4th outfielder with a similar contract, a middle reliever (of which the cards have plenty), or a Quad A player with a smaller salary. None of these options seem to be of much benefit to the Cardinals right now. The latter option may provide salary relief, but who is going to play right field every day? In my opinion, he isn't going anywhere, nor should he.

3.) Edmonds. I, as much as anyone, was glad to see Edmonds come back this year. He is one of my favorite players on the team, and it would have pained me to see him in another uniform. I thought picking up his option this past offseason would have been a bad idea, I thought $10M was too much to pay him, and realized that if he was going to take a "pay-cut", you would have had to give him 2 years. I saw today someone wanted to DFA him. No. he is owed roughly $12M through the end of next year. with him being hurt right now, and with a history of injuries, no one would pick him up this year to pick provide some salary relief. They might next year, perhaps....but it would be unlikely. In my opinion, the best thing to do would be to give him as much time as needed, get COMPLETELY HEALTHY, and then come back for his swan song next year with the hope that he may be able to bring back some of his glory days, one last time.

4.) Rolen. someone today suggested the Cards should trade him. He is a third baseman hitting .262, with 4 home runs. Making roughly $6M for the rest of the year, and $12M/year for the next two years. Who exactly would want that right now? And if you found a taker, what would they be willing to give up? Certainly not a highly sought after prospect. But now that I have indulged in this exercise, I would like to point out that he has a no-trade clause, and he isn't going anywhere.

5.) Izzy. he is a 10 and 5 guy, he has a no-trade clause as well. He isn't going anywhere. The question here becomes whether or not the Cards want to pickup his $8M option next year. I haven't looked at what the free agent market might be this off-season for closers...but I am inclined to say that the Cards should pickup this option in the offseason.

6.) Kennedy. is owed about $9M more over the rest of this season and the next 2 years. DFA'ing him is not an option. trading him is not an option (again, who would give up anything for him). chalk this up as a bad year and hope he regains his form for the next two seasons.

7.) Ankiel. we should probably give the "call up Ankiel" calls a rest. Please go to Future Redbirds and read up on him a little bit. he is Dave Kingman reincarnated. The guy hits homeruns like crazy, granted. but he doesn't hit for average, he doesn't take a walk. He is a one trick pony at the plate. and anyone who thinks he is going to hit homeruns at that pace if he were to come back up to St. Louis is vastly over-estimating him, in my opinion.

My Friends, I think we need to realize that this year's team (and for that matter, next year's team as well) isn't going to have some dramatic overhaul. You can't "blow up" the team and start from scratch. Now, after next year, when Edmonds' salary is off the books (and he has retired, most likely), and Encarnacion is gone, and Kip Wells is gone, then you will start to see some changes. The team is FINALLY making a move to invest in the minor league system, and not be forced to turn to the free agent market every time they need a hole filled. Be patient. Support your team. Hold players accountable. That's all fine and good. But Jockety can't waive (pun) a magic wand and make the team better right now this minute. No one can.

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Thank you

I agree with you almost 100% down the line.

by Big Red on Jul 15, 2007 1:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

correction

Rolen is actually making $12 M for the next THREE years. sorry about that.

by Irishman on Jul 15, 2007 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

One thing

I think we can partially fix our offense in the offseason with one signing Eric Byrnes!
I read on MLB Trade Rumors they dont think the
D-backs will resign him.He plays really good defence he might hit over .300 next year also he`s gonna hit 20+ homers with great speed.Having Eckstein and Byrnes at the top of the lineup would be AWESOME.
Byrnes would be a great guy to have getting on in front of Albert.He also adds something our team has nothing of SPEED which I think we need badly.
Assuming Edmonds is hurt in 08(Which is likely) Duncan in LF Byrnes in CF Juan in RF I think would be a good outfield.

by Calhoun on Jul 15, 2007 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cost - effective?

Byrnes is gonna ask for a 5 yr / $55 M contract & wants to stay in Arizona, if at all possible.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/0713dbnotes0713.html

I like him too (as a player, not really on TV..), but do you really want to give that kind of money to a (will be) 32 year old OF coming off a career year?

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 15, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boomer

If not Byrnes then who? he might be the cheapest good outfielder on the market the other outfielders on the market might get more money then that..... if you want to add a good player you need to spend some money and we need a good hitter like him.

by Calhoun on Jul 15, 2007 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What to do...

I agree that Byrnes would be the best option of the FA OF's (guys like Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, Mike Cameron etc.) for all of the reasons you've listed above, if that's the route you think the organization should take.
My questions about such a signing would be as follows:

Is the front office gonna add another $11 (at least) to the payroll each year for the next 5 years, pushing us over the $100 M mark, when we're looking at a 75 win team?
Has the organization decided that the myriad options of OF's in the minors (Ankiel, Stavinoha, Haerther, Rasmus, Jay etc.) are NOT going to be able to help the big league club next year? If they have, then go ahead & sign Byrnes; if they haven't, why not use a younger / cheaper option out there?
Is this year a true representation of what Eric Byrnes is?

I don't know.
I would personally like to see what some of the children on the farm can do.

All that said, in my heart, I agree with you that, in this day & age, if you can't grow them, you gotta pay for them. And if those kids in the minors can't do it, pay up & shut up.

Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 15, 2007 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boomer

I agree with you up to a point.I think we should shell out the money and get Byrnes if I was the GM I would do it in a second.But I dont agree that we should give the Minor leaguers a chance I dont see anyone there who.ll help in the short term I dont believe in Ankiel at all.......
I think maybe a few years from now some of the guys in the minors might help but hey I hope im wrong I hope ankiel comes up and hits 15 bombs in the majors but I seriously dont see that happening.....

by Calhoun on Jul 15, 2007 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I want this guy

I vote for trade Juancion for a bag of balls and use the savings to help go after this guy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosuke_Fukudome

OBP machine to hit in front of Albert, best position is RF, estimated to get 12-15 million over 3-4 years. Sign me up.

by mikedallas23 on Jul 16, 2007 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds good to me

I wonder if him and So go back at all. Plus, if we dump Enc this year, it gives us some time in August and September to play around with Ludwick at an everyday role and see how he produces. I would suggest us brining JRod up, but that almost seems like a lost cause at this point. But yeah, I wouldn't mind if we got a A or AA no name prospect if it means taking a shot at someone like Kosuke in the offseason.

The question is, how much do you think it would cost to put in a bid for negotiating rights? That might be what exceeds our limit.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 16, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nothing

He's a free agent. All you gotta do is back up the truck :) When it comes to free agents my philosophy is I'd rather have one good one at $15 million than 3 Juancions. If you sign a star player and he disappoints a bit, at least you still have a good player. If you sign an average/below-average player and he disappoints you have, well, 1/2 the position players on our roster right now.

by mikedallas23 on Jul 16, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Edmonds

He didn't really take a pay cut. It was a 2 year $19mil contract. $11 mil this year (more than the $10mil option) and $8mil next year. I believe just picking up his option would have been a much better call.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 15, 2007 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I could be wrong...

but the three million extra this year is actually defered money....this was the $3M it cost them to buy out the option he had for this year. could be semantics, but...at least they're not paying it this year.

by Irishman on Jul 15, 2007 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think you are right....

there is some defered money, but still i think picking up his option would have been a better call.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 15, 2007 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cardinals..

Just because a player has a no trade clause doesnt mean they cant be traded, because they can wave it if they like the team there going to. I also think that we should pick up Izzy's option for next year, sigh Springer for another year,and try some how to get a better 2nd basemen.

by gocardz on Jul 15, 2007 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great post.

Thanks for being objective about the state of affairs in Cardinalville.
Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 15, 2007 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

RE: question for Irishman..

I'd like to know your opinion on who the Redbirds currently have who does have trade value to another club at this point.
I came up with this (small) list here.

Brad Thompson - can be an effective starter / reliever for a contender for cheap.
Braden Looper - same as above (- cheapness; + experience)

Umm... That's about all I can come up with.

What do you think?
Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 15, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

those two, and...

Wainwright and Reyes. But I wouldn't trade Wagon Maker right now, and Reyes value is much less than it would have been 3 months ago, but he still has value. it would take a LOT for me to trade either of those two.

by Irishman on Jul 15, 2007 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You never want to trade a young starter

until you absolutely know for sure they are not going to work out. You all know who Johann Santana is? He was originally signed by the Astros; lost to the Marlins on a Rule 5 draft in Dec. '99, then traded with cash for Jared Camp to Minnesota. He has been the best pitcher in baseball 3 years running. His minor league record was a little erratic, but there was enough good things in it to warrant caution before letting him literally slip through your fingers. What if your staff had the right/left tandem of Oswalt and Santana? That could have been the Astros......

by jillsinmo on Jul 15, 2007 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And I think this is often true of pitchers more

so than hitters. When your a kid playing this game the best player on the field was always the pitcher. They become used to dominating everyone as they move through little league, high school, college. When they finally reach the minors, they only now are facing the OTHER kids who were the best player on the field. I imagine it's the first time most of them have ever faced any kind of failure on the ball field, and they need the time to figure out what they have to do about.

by jillsinmo on Jul 15, 2007 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and I'm not saying any of our young arms are

going to grow up to be Santana.....but Cardinal management didn't think that Dan Haren was going to grow up and be Dan Haren either--but Billy Beane did. Yellow flags on all healthy starters...perhaps even longer than you'd like...because you do not want to let a useful pitcher, cheap, get away.....

by jillsinmo on Jul 15, 2007 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: Haren becoming Haren

One guy in the org did

"Well, (pitching coach) Dave Duncan and I have been together a long time and been friends for a long time, and it's probably the closest we've ever come to having a disruptive relationship, because he was very adamant that Dan be a part of St. Louis' future.

"I think it was 2003 when we really put it on Dan. He was young, and we asked more than we really should have. We were all just impressed with his competitiveness, his toughness; obviously his stuff. So we had, you know, big plans for his future. But, you know, make no apologize, we got Mark Mulder and he had a big year for us, he came over and he's still with us."

Boooo-urns.

by Alxfritz on Jul 16, 2007 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't think

anyone was happy about giving up Dan Haren. Much as he annoys me, there's simply no way that TLR laid awake at night, twirling his mustache, trying to figure out a way to get rid of him. The mistake was simply that leadership coveted mulder more than they should have; they figured (correctly) that Barton would have nowhere to play by the time he was all growed up, and decided to pay the price that Billy asked. Which was a gonna-be-traded-someday-anyway DH prospect in an NL organization, a young starter with potential, and a decent reliever.

But hey, Haren's ace-hood was a couple of years away and we needed to win in 2005, before Walker checked out and Reggie and Edmonds and Rolen got too old and Morris went FA. And we just needed that one little piece to do it- and once we got him, we came pretty darn close to doing it, too.

Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jul 16, 2007 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Amen, brother.
Hindsight.
20/20
The whole 9 yards.
Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 16, 2007 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Daric Barton

I am not convinced entirely that Barton could only DH, after all even Young Dunc was turned into a average LFer.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 16, 2007 3:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

young Dunc

has power. Barton appears to have below average power for a corner OF. He should be good at OBP, but will probably lack the power preferred in a 1B or corner OF.

by chuckb on Jul 16, 2007 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You have to remember he is in the A's

organization. They will probably play him at first base--they played Hatteberg there for 2+years, and he didn't have typical 1st base type hitting skills. They really don't care that baseball norms say you should get x from this position and y from this position. He may develop more power as time goes on--he's just 21.

by jillsinmo on Jul 16, 2007 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

There will always be a place in my line-up card for any guy who avoids making an out 40%+ of the time.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 17, 2007 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For every santana

there are 10 Mark Priors, Manny Aybars and Paul Wilsons. Maybe the cost/benefit is worth making you think about 20 times about it, but you have to think that they might flame out. A LOT of prospects flame out.

by Valatan on Jul 16, 2007 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of cours there are.........

I know that everyone doesn't work out. But you have to be smart and careful about what you got. Heaven help the general manager that lets the next Santana get away........

by jillsinmo on Jul 16, 2007 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why

wouldn't you like to see Thompson stay in our rotation? He proven to be one of the most consistent parts of our rotation, and they style he pitches is one that won't be very erractic, and we'll most likely continue to see consistent results. As far as I'm concerned, consistency in our rotation is something we can only dream of at this point, so we sure shouldn't trade one of our few glimmers of light away. Oh, not to mention he's cheap.

I agree on Looper though. I'd much rather see us unload Looper than Thompson. That $5 mil next year is not worth it.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 16, 2007 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good post

Very good analysis.

I think Izzy is potentially tradeable, as he might be willing to go to a team in a playoff race, but unless we get back at least one good prospect, I don't think it's worth it, since Perez looks to be not ready until 2009.

Here's a question for anyone knowledgeable enough to answer: Do you have to option a player back down to the minors if it's a September callup? I'd love to see Ankiel get a chance to see major league pitching, but I agree with Irishman that he's not really major-league ready and it'd be a bad idea to call him up now. This is of course compounded by the fact that he's out of options.

Kennedy's not that old yet, so I'm guessing a new year should bring at least moderate success for him, so while he sucks this year, I wouldn't advocate for eating a three-year contract either, and without accepting a REALLY unfavorable trade, we're not dumping him that way either.

by mtalken on Jul 15, 2007 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you're correct

on Wells, Rolen, Edmonds, Izzy, and Kennedy. We're just going to have to hope that Kennedy turns it around this year or next.

As for Encarnacion, we should get rid of him and get anything for him we can. You're correct in saying that we probably won't get much for him, but if we can get some salary relief for next year, that will help. We definitely need at least 1 more good, solid hitter in the lineup (better than Juan) and RF is a good spot in which to place him. Freeing up some salary will allow us to add that RF.

As for Ankiel, I don't think anyone really knows what he'll do until he's here. He shouldn't be called up yet but he should be added in August or September at the latest. He doesn't walk much and needs to improve his approach at the plate, but he has impressive power and the ability to play the OF every day (something Dave Kingman or Mike Laga, or some of the others he's been compared to didn't have). It may turn out that he'll never be a major-league OF but we'll never know if we don't give him some playing time. My bet is that he can be at least as good as Ryan Ludwick is and so could be an effective player off the bench, if he can't make it as an every day OF.

by chuckb on Jul 15, 2007 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Logical - But I Disagree

Kip Wells - You are right, release him or move him to the bullpen are the only logical answers. I would lean to moving him to the bullpen myself b/c he can't really hurt us there and may move enough in terms of value that we could trade him by end of August for a low A C level prospect (or just to get a minute amount of salary relief)
Enca - On one hand, you are right we couldn't get anything substantial for him, but on the other hand the only thing we want is him out of our lineup so if anyone will take him, I say send him packing. He could easily be replaced with Stavinoha as a bat against righties or we could give Ank a chance to play everyday so --- just in case you are right that experiment starts now instead of later. I believe in Ankiel - for whatever reason - and think poo poo ing a guy who is raking in AAA with less than 1,000 total ABs is a little tiresome. Everyone but Pujols has holes in there game. AND EVERY good MLBer is a mistake hitter - very few bash good pitches consistently - maybe... the top 5%. Again - to sum up Enca is a replacement level ball player getting paid $6M per - if someone else will take him for nothing fork that guy over.

3/4. Edmonds/Rolen - Agreed today neither is tradable. To me the only thing we can do is put them through waivers (they won't be claimed) and hope there stock goes up enough by August 31 that someone is willing to take them on. My uninformed feel is that the likelihood of trading these guys at this point is less than 10%.

Izzy - Disagree with you here, but know one could really know but Izzy himself. He never has seemed enamored with being a member of the Cards. If we could flip him to a contender for a B level prospect (which I think is reasonable) and he could be guaranteed his option would be exercised, I think everyone would leave happy. As for the question who is our closer? --- What does it matter this year? Percival could do a good job, Franklin is something, Perez is waiting in the wings; Worrell might be able to get the job done - Again - given the state of the team and a 1% chance of making the playoffs per Baseball Prospectus, who cares - let go of the $8M and try to get a B level prospect.
Kennedy - you are right untradable - further - no reason to try given the fact that I, without any good information, think he will turn it around - guess that's just part of being a fan - and trading him for a pinata was a joke!! HAHAHAHA --
Ankiel - you saw what I thought above - to me you let him play out the string in AAA this year and you call him up in September and play him EVERYDAY. Then - you send him to the AFL for more seasoning and hope he is your RF next year.

I don't mind if the Cards lose this season and even next, but I would appreciate them at least putting a team out there with some upside/worthy of watching... I agree, we're fans when we win the WS and we are fans when Ank keeps throwing it to the screen... I am alright with that...

by Lawless on Jul 15, 2007 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Juan E haters

http://midwestsportsfan.blogspot.com/

I just updated my blog for the first time in two months, heh, yay laziness.

My post is about the options we have if we wanted to get rid of Juan.

I compare AAA and MLB numbers of Juan, Ludwick, J-Rod, Ankiel, Stavinoha, and everyone else I thought a plausible option.

The full argument is of course on my blog, but in short: Juan is arguably our best option, and that includes his numbers vs. those of the seemingly beloved Eric Byrnes, whose career numbers are very similar to those of Encarnacion.

by mtalken on Jul 15, 2007 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah,

I'm not feeling the Byrnes love either (although, I could refer to him as C Montgomery Byrnes way more often, which would be fun for me and annoying to others). Is there something I'm missing w/ this guy?

He's like Juan only worse, soon to be richer, hustley, and white.

Boooo-urns.

by Alxfritz on Jul 15, 2007 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well on the surface...

he pretty much is Juan as far as the numbers go. Well, he does hold an advantage in career OPS+..but it isn't huge. However, he is one of those guys that will never get accused of not caring which is the biggest knock against Juan.

While there isn't a substantial difference in production, the intangible for Byrnes give him a pretty big edge IMO.

It's all a moot point anyway...he's fixing to get a fat contract and it won't be from the Cardinals.

Pitch to swing and misses...not contact. I've never heard of a "seeing eye K"

by bobbyballgame1 on Jul 16, 2007 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I had my choice

next year between the two for 6.5M, I'd definitely take Byrnes. His career numbers are only marginally better, but I agree he's definitely one of those guys who shows he cares on every play.

The point is, as you said, he'll likely get a pretty nice contract, and Byrnes for 11M is an even crappier contract than Juan E for 6.5M(which of course will be an expiring contract after next season, so we can move on then)

by mtalken on Jul 16, 2007 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Byrnes v. Brekky

Byrnes wears high socks. We'd get to see those kick-arse striped socks everyday. For this alone, we should sign him.

Spantalones

by spants on Jul 16, 2007 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the link.......

I don't understand the hatred for Juan Enc. and he played part of last year with an injured wrist, and he's still probably not quite right just yet. He has his uses, and he really is the best of the options we have right now. I think even once are twice he managed to win a game......he just moves around in a way that looks like he doesn't care, and he's not one for false hustle either, which just gets you tired anyway.....

by jillsinmo on Jul 15, 2007 11:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree and Disagree

I'll respond to each statement on every player using your same numbers.

Wells. Oh Kippy...what to do, what to do. I actually think giving him a run in the bullpen is probably the best course of action. Cavazos is a guy you could certainly use and Wells can be the mop up guy if nothing else. He did very well in his short stint in the 'pen...why not try it again? If he can't do that well, then by all means release him. No way he needs to make another start, but Id give him a shot in the 'pen again before DFAing him.
Juan. Reasonable salary, but the guy just isn't very good. You can't have a slightly below average corner OFer when you have black holes at 2B, C, and to a an extent 3B, not to mention CF (wow, no wonder we can't score any runs). If you can move him, and just get someone to pay the entire amount remaining on his contract...that is an excellent move. Getting rid of him actually gives us a positin where we can insert a real hitter if nothing else. Come back witht the same position players next year and you can start thinking about '09 on opening day. Move him, I don't care if you get a bag of used balls in return...salary relief and opening up a position for an above average hitter is paramount.
Edmonds. I was hoping they would have just picked up the option. I don't understand how 10M is too much to pay, but 9M isn't (not to mention the latter requires a two year commitment to a guy whose skills have eroded like the foundation of the coliseum). I'm hoping he does us all a favor and retires at the end of the year. Should have just picked up the option, paying the little bit of extra money is well worth the shorter commitment. Jocketty had a TERRIBLE offseason, and this extension was on of his worst moves.
Rolen. Yup, untradeable. Noone would want him without us eating a substantial amount of his salary which defeats the purpose. Not going anywhere. You just have to hope he can somehow regain form, but I won't be holding my breath. Its just a bad contract now, every team has one or two.
Izzy. He stays, perfect bridge to Chris Perez. Perez can start next year at AAA and be in the big leagues by mid next season. Just makes too much sense.
Kennedy. What can you do? Nobody would want him...NOBODY. You can't really play him either. I just can't believe that after the yearly 2B carousel that this is the guy we commit long term too. One reason they did that, they thought they were getting a value. Boy were they wrong, another glaring mistake by Jocketty this offseason. He is well on his way to becoming a way overpaid bench player. He can't be our 2B if this team is going to win.
Ankiel. I think it's time we give this Ankiel can't hack it sentiment a rest. You say Ankiel can't hit for average or take a walk...yet his avg and OBP are both substantially higher than Juan...who you say shouldn't be going anywhere. I just don't get the negativity towards this guy. He is in essentially his 2nd full season as a position player and his is leading the PCL in homeruns!!! Come on, what does the guy have to do? There aren't too many players who don't have holes in their game...they call those guys hall of famers. If the guy were 21-24 (which experience wise...he essentially is) and he was putting up the same numbers in AAA...hed be one of the top 10 prospects in baseball. Lets give this guy 3-4 seasons of being a position player before we start labeling what he will or wont do. Juan for 6M next year or Ankiel for under 1??? A no brainer if there ever was one.

As far as I see it...we have 3 commodities which will bring back something useful, anyone else we move will be purely a salary dump. Those 3 are...

Molina
Looper
Reyes

Hopefully one of those guys can get us the young talented SS we desperately need.

I don't envy Jocketty, but you make your bed...you lie in it.

Pitch to swing and misses...not contact. I've never heard of a "seeing eye K"

by bobbyballgame1 on Jul 16, 2007 12:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice post

It's good to see a bit of reality in the endless demands for this and that. Get used to it, folks. This is your team for 07 and probably a big chunk of 08. I still believe next year will be better (though the recent Carp news is not good), but to expect the powerhouses of 04 and 05 is to simply torture yourselves. Expect mediocrity for the next season or two and hope the Central will allow a couple more Bird victories. It is what it is, but we're Cardinals fans. We can take it. For cryin' out loud, this franchise has won FOUR World Series since I've been alive. I can deal with a couple shitty seasons--have many times. It is never the end of the world. We will be back.

by rockin redbird on Jul 16, 2007 12:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i agree w/ you ....

for the most part but with a few caveats. first it's true that rolen, etc. don't have trade value now...but they did (or at least rolen did)prior to this season(the guy won a gold glove, had 48 dbls,22 hrs and 95rbis last year), and in my opinion walt took a really big risk on relying on too many past their prime parts to have one more good year. it's not like a lot of this season couldn't be foreseen...despite the world series win we definitely were not the juggernaut of 04'05'...scott has had two major shoulder surgeries and the fact that he came back after the second had a big power season(considering all the dbls...70+ xbh from a gold glover most people take that), we won a world series, and he feuded w the manager would have seemed to make it agreeable to approach him about a trade (selling high it's what you do to get value...especially for veterans who are major health risks and are owed large sums of money.......especially when most of the core of your team is made up of similarly paid veterans with similar medical maladies). either way i feel like it should have been apparent after the way we played MOST of last year that something needed to be done to shake up the core of this team. maybe we should have addressed things in another way besides rolen...i'm not sure i'm not a gm i'm not privy to what goes on btwn them...but what i do know is SOMEThing should have been done prior to backing ourselves into this 2-3 year (i hope) corner. honestly what's the worst that could have happened...we trade someone a little too early and they have one more good year for another team...it's better to get a deal done a little early than to be stuck with bad unmoveable contracts.
Also if izzy is agreeable to it i think we have to look at moving him...yes he is good...and yes he is reasonably priced...but do bad teams need 8m dollar closers...or would the prospect/s aquired by dealing him be much more valuable going forward (also i think the going rate for izzy would be better than a b level prospect...scott linebrink who's cheaper but less accomplished in a closer role has been the subject of numerous trade iquiries over the past two seasons and it seems like the going rate for him is a good young nearly ready or ready position player, not franchise cornerstones but michael bourn, andy marte, josh fields types good but not outstanding. i think izzy could fetch this type of price from one of many teams w/ pen probs especially w/ that option in tow...or maybe it's something more like two Bish players...at any rate i think he has good value b/c so many teams have bad relief squads).
also...a comment about eric byrnes...no way he gets 55 million...not unless almost every other good outfielder resigns w/ his current team before the season is out...otherswise byrnsie likely will become subject to a reality in which there are only so many clubs in the market for expensive outfielders and his track record won't stand up to theirs in turn driving down his price to get a deal-still decent but i don't see byrnes pulling a meche this offseason.

overall i understand the spirit of the post...we have enjoyed alot of recent and past success and we should appreciate that and realize that things are cyclical and that you can't be the best every year. and i accept these things but i do believe that some preemptive measures to make the outlook a little better for the near future
could have been taken

grow back the beard adam...it couldn't hurt

by intimidator45 on Jul 16, 2007 2:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The big picture

Hmm, I mostly agree but I do think the Cardinals have a few tradable parts.

Despite LB's analysis, Juan is probably good for a midling prospect to a team that needs a #6 or #7 hitter and OFer. (If Alou doesn't come around for the Mets, Enc could be a good fit.) His contact for 2008 is very reasonable in the current market.
Izzy is 5&10, but I have a hard time believing he'd veto a trade to a contender. The Tigers come to mind as a team he could compliment.
If Loop can return to any kind of consistancy, he could be very valuable as an affordable #4 or #5 starter. The D-Backs could be a fit, or perhaps the Mariners or even the Mets.
There are other guys that wouldn't bring much but could get a low level prospect or simply clear roster space. Any of our young relivers Tagucci or Speezio come to mind. Even tho I know its mostly wishful thinking...

But all this misses the big picture. If we are out of contention, then we should start moving guys for whatever we can get, load up the farm system the best we can, and give young guys like Reyes a shot. If we are in contention then it only then does it make sense to hold on to the lower priced vets.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 16, 2007 3:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Looper

Good points, except that there's no way Looper winds up as a Met. Mets' fans absolutely ~hate~ him. Loop and Benitez are the mist disliked Mets over the last ten years. By a lot.

by glennrwordman on Jul 16, 2007 7:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to have to disagree

Juan, coming off an injury and being his usual Juan-y self, is worth pretty much EXACTLY what LB showed us. If someone wants him, we'll have one of two choices:

Take a decent prospect(probably still no one likely to stick with the big club), but eat a lot of his contract OR
Take a nothing prospect and salary dump.

Neither one of these helps the Cardinals in the short term or long term really, unless we're going to go after an actual top-tier level corner outfielder to replace him. Signing an Eric Byrnes or other player of that nature is simply going to be committing even MORE years to a mediocre player who will probably be villified for putting up their career averages.

On your 2nd point, it would entirely depend on what we got back, but if TLR is around next year, a good closer is a must, because the way he handles bullpens is entirely based around having a solid closer. Percival used to be a closer, but I can't imagine he's the answer, and Perez likely isn't ready until '09 from most of the reports. If we could get back a top level prospect, I think this would be a good trade, but I seem to remember someone talking about what relievers would likely be available, and that the market for Izzy would probably get watered down by those other relievers.

No way Looper goes to the Mets. He was a completely failed closer there, and obviously doesn't have the mental makeup to succeed in NY, and if Minaya was willing to give up anything to bring back someone that already failed there, I'd be very surprised.

On your 4th point, I don't see why we would trade away young relievers. Isn't the point of this whole exercise to get younger major league ready players? Trading a Tyler Johnson for some AA player doesn't really help us. And I REALLY doubt Taguchi has significant trade value.

I think your glasses are a little too rosy colored. The only real possibility I'm seeing here is Izzy being moved, if we find a good team he'd be willing to go to and we could get an above average prospect back.

by mtalken on Jul 16, 2007 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Young relievers and the Gooch

My point on some of our relivers is while they are somewhat fungible comodities, there are teams that may be willing to give up something significant in return. Again, the Tigers come to mind. I just think we should sell high while we can. I already admitted that a trade of Taguchi is mostly wishful thinking (and BTW, honestly, I do like the guy as a player), but if a team needs a right handed bench bat, he'd seem to be a good option.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 16, 2007 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree...

First of on Juan....Yeah, the guy isn't worth anything and to get even a hint of talent back we would have to eat some of the salary which defeats the purpose of moving him. Here is where I disagree...taking a nothing prospect and dumping the entire salary would be a huge success. It doesn't help this season (although JROD is a better player, but I doubt he gets the call anyway). However, it makes a huge difference in '08. As LB pointed out there is virtually no wiggle room in the payroll and moving what Juan makes would help. I can't imagine any circumstance where Ankiel could not AT LEAST match what Juan brings to the team. In fact, I believe it likely he far exceeds what Juan brings to the table. If you can get anyone to eat his entire salary, regardless of the return, it must be done IMO.

As for moving Izzy...yeah, you are right, it depends on what we get back. If we can get a legit SS prospect then I think you almost have to do it. I don't see any reason Izzy wouldn't want to go to a contender after watching Waino record the final out of the WS. Personally, I see him jumping at the oppurtunity.

As for Looper, we should knock on the Phillies door and see if a trade for Shane Victorino is a possibility. The Phillies have a legit shot at the playoffs, and another solid starter (lets hope Looper has a few good starts before the deadline) might push them over the top.

As I see it, we have 3 commodities that will bring us value in return...

Izzy
Molina
Looper

Pitch to swing and misses...not contact. I've never heard of a "seeing eye K"

by bobbyballgame1 on Jul 16, 2007 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

J-Rod is NOT a better player

he just isn't.

by Valatan on Jul 16, 2007 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe not,

but he's a much better deal.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 16, 2007 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OPS+ says he is....

JROD career OPS+ 110

Juan career OPS+ 96

He also holds a .60 point advantage in OBP.

MAYBE Juan is the better fielder, but it doesn't make up for the big advantage that JROD holds when he's in the batter's box. I want offense from my corner OF.

Add in the fact that Juan makes over 6M and JROD less than 1....yup, JROD is the better option and the better player as well.

Pitch to swing and misses...not contact. I've never heard of a "seeing eye K"

by bobbyballgame1 on Jul 17, 2007 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I say

they should let Isringhausen walk and try to dump Enc on someone. They aren't going to bump their payroll, so they have to clear out room.

by ryanisforever on Jul 16, 2007 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think it's silly....

that everyone seems to dump on izz's value just b/c there will be other relievers on the market. there will be other options but for a team w/ serious playoff aspirations is izzy the best?
1)gagne seems to be the most comparable closer likely to be moved based on track record/experience/payscale but...gagne is just a rental and the rangers will still want a good return for someone who will once again be on the open market come the offseason (if gagne continues to be productive this year his 08' salary is likely to dwarf isringhausen's 8m option for next year). and while we're on the subject i am pretty sure that the rangers would have to be blown away in order to trade away gagne AND otsuka (anori is under team control and a cheap closer option for a rebuilding team).
2)some of the other closers rumored to be on the market who would still be under team control at least through next year (driving up their price in talent b/c they are cost-controlled)BRIAn Feuntes-could be moved but would likely require a good package, and my gut feeling is that they hold onto him, he's very good, cheap, and the rox are one good winning streak from being in the nl west race this year, not to mention 08' when they could be real threats with all that young talent maturing. What about chad cordero? same animal in that his payscale/options make him more valuable in terms of talent required to make a deal and jim bowden seems to have a very exaggerated view of what cordero is worth compared to other teams...or else he probably would have already been moved.
3)and lidge perhaps the most coveted player on the market for several teams first of all prob won't be moved...and WOULD require prob two good prospects at least
in short it seems that there are two categories of relievers on the market:older more expensive rentals, or young,team controlled upstarts who would require more of a talent commitment to aquire...and izzy kind of falls into a middle ground...he is productive and relatively affordable for this year and next...and he would require a less expansive player package than some of the younger relievers available (cordero, brad lidge if you enter the market i'm talking to you)...making isringhausen a very nice option for teams such as the indians, phillies, or tigers, teams built to win now but who also don't want to sacrifice their future on aquiring a closer

grow back the beard adam...it couldn't hurt

by intimidator45 on Jul 16, 2007 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good Post

1)Even though this team isn't doing too well it is not all because of what the GM has done, he can only do so much. Sure he failed big time this offseason but he did manage to get Franklin who is having a great year.
2)People are really on this cardinal seller thing, trade Izzy for a future utility player and trade Encarnacion for nothing. Not to mention the fact that in a couple of posts say that Molina could be used as valuable trade bait. Thats what we should do, trade one of the few young good players we actually have on the team.
3)This team is vastly underachieving and would do best just to stand PAT and if they don't make the playoffs than we will have Carp and Mulder healthy for the whole next season (or beggining anyways.) Thats like adding 35 wins if they play like they did in their best years.
4)Rolen is not going to hit like this another season, I refuse to belive that. He has by far the best career among active 3rd baseman (A-Rod should be at SS), offensively and deffensively and is still on pace for a Hall of Fame career.
5)And its not like the Cards can request Edmonds to retire, its a slap in the face, even though the cards got screwed this year from what they are paying him, if he refused it would be hard to keep him and I can't see him in another uniform.
6)All they can do is work on the players they already got, develop Reyes into a decent 4th pitcher, keep working on Wainwright because he is going to be a #1 one year, get Mulder and Carp back to where they used to be and this team could be awesome next year with three potential #1 starters.

by Romo9 on Jul 16, 2007 10:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs