juan sweet dream
by lboros on Jun 29, 2007 6:34 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Printa reminder --- i'm on vacation next week. i'll have a game thread tonight and a quick post tomorrow a.m., then will disappear till next weekend.
with no game to discuss, i figured i might as well consider a question that's been floating around out there lately: is there a trade market for juan encarnacion? yesterday's trade of milton bradley to the padres adds a bit of fuel to the discussion; it's almost july, and contenders are starting to make moves to shore up their weaknesses. (i leave it to you to decide if the cardinals are "contenders" at this point.)
the short answer to the question is: there has always been a trade market for en'cion. . . . or maybe it's more accurate to say there's always a team that wants to get rid of him. he has been dealt four times in the last six and a half years, twice in the middle of a season (2002 and 2004). it has been about three years since he was traded, so the guy's about due. what kind of return might he bring? to gauge that, we might as well start by looking at what sort of price teams have paid in the past to acquire his services. here are the transactions, in sequence:
december 2001, traded from detroit to cincinnati for dmitri young: young was a good, not great hitter --- below average for a first baseman, coming off four consecutive seasons of .850ish ops. he was still better than encarnacion, however --- juan had turned in his worst season in 2001, batting .242 / .292 / .408. both players did well in their new environs: young had a career year in 2003 (.909 ops), while encarnacion hit 16 hr in half a season for the reds --- who then packaged him up in trade #2.
july 2002, traded from cincinnati (with throw-ins) to florida for ryan dempster: hard to remember, but dempster once ranked among the most promising young pitchers in baseball. he won 14 games as a 23-year-old (this was back in 2000) and struck out 209 men, finishing 4th in the national league; made the all-star team that year. he won 15 games for florida the next year and threw 200+ innings for the 2d straight year. but the workload was killing him; at the time of this trade he was 5-8 with a 4.79 era in the marlins' spacious ballpark. his era ballooned to 6.19 in cincinnati, and the following year he missed half the season with an injury. just the same, that was a pretty fair price encarnacion fetched --- the rough equivalent of nabbing, say, jason jennings or brett myers.
december 2003, traded from florida to los angeles for travis ezi: the marlins had just won a world championship, but during the playoffs encarnacion --- the team's 2d-best rbi man and 3d-best home-run hitter during the regular season --- lost his job to 20-year-old miguel cabrera. the marlins still had mike lowell at 3b, so cabrera was slated as the everyday right-fielder; juan pierre played center, and in left field the marlins decided to go with 38-year-old jeff conine instead of encarnacion. still, j'cion was only 28 years old and coming off a 19-homer, 94-rbi season; you'd think he could command more in return than travis ezi, a journeyman in the low minors. that postseason benching must've been a watershed moment --- a major shift in encarnacion's perceived value. in the first two trades, teams had been willing to give up pretty good players to get encarnacion; now he wasn't worth anything more than a guy who'd put up a .660 ops in low class A the previous year. the marlins just wanted his salary off the books, i guess, so they gave him away for free.
july 2004, traded from los angeles back to florida with paul lo duca and guillermo mota in exchange for hee seop choi and brad penny: barely 6 months after trading for en'cion, the dodgers shipped him back to florida in this well-remembered blockbuster at the deadline. although two very good players went the other way in this deal --- penny you know about; choi was the rough equivalent of chris duncan, a 25-year-old with an .883 ops --- encarnacion was essentially a glorified throw-in, easily the weakest player in the trade. he had a.235 / .289 / .417 line at the time, while lo duca was the nl's reigning all-star catcher and mota was the premier setup man in the league. the latter two are the players the marlins (then in 2d place) really wanted. j'cion was just a spaceholder; he took over in the outfield for conine, who shifted to 1st base for the departed choi. the trade didn't work out for florida at all; they missed the playoffs, while the dodgers won their division. encarnacion started regularly for the marlins after the trade and put up a .701 ops down the stretch.
so there you have it: early in his career encarnacion brought very appealing returns on the trade market, but since his disappearance during the 2003 postseason teams haven't been willing to give up much for him. i wouldn't expect that to change now, insofar as he was benched again in the postseason last year --- and not for a hall-of-fame talent like miguel cabrera, but for dfa'd journeyman preston wilson. juan's current batting avg is 5 points below his career mark, his slugging pct 3 points over; he has an on-base pct of .297; he's 31 years old. if the cardinals were contending and had an opportunity to pick up this player, would you be excited? would you post a comment at this blog suggesting that jocketty should give up a valuable prospect or a halfway decent major leaguer in order to get him? . . . . .
i didn't think so. and gms for other teams probably feel just the way you do.
are there contending teams who could use encarnacion? sure there are. the mets may have lost moises alou for the season, which leaves them short a weapon against left-handed pitchers. the dbacks are having trouble scoring runs and are getting piss-poor production from their outfield; they're in a tight race, and a small upgrade could make a big difference. the tigers (rumored to have some interest in encarnacion) are not getting much from their current left-field platoon of thames and monroe.
perhaps some team will decide that encarnacion is the answer to their ills. but more likely his value is akin to what tino martinez's was after the 2003 season; he, you might recall, was traded for a 25-year-old double A relief pitcher.
oh, speaking of 25-year-old pitchers: the discussion about anthony reyes reigns in the front office, as well as on this board. my thoughts on the subject are already pretty well known . . . .
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I'm still not giving up on Evan Rust!
I don't dislike Juan -- in fact, I enjoy his defense, laid back demeanor, and sly smile -- but he is what he is: the most mediocre player in baseball. He's not bad, he's not good... He's Juan. And he's paid accordingly, which in today's market is probably his most valuable asset.
I was really hoping the Cubbies Jacques Jones trade would go through, as that would show what a young-30's, career 100-ish ops+, corner ofer making $4 million-ish would fetch. My guess? Evan Rust's #1 comp and some rosin.
to be fair...
GO CARDS!!!
Checked out
Bradley....
The Marlins trade was probably the last time Juan commanded really anything in a deal. We'd be lucky to get a middling prospect for him.
Well as far as Reyes goes
Wasn't Encarnacion difficult to replace?
Trading Edmonds, though, however unpopular, would stand a better chance at yielding a net gain.
C'mon...
You must be right
WPA isn't really an indicator of talent
I like VORP better in this instance because I don't really want to know whether they've "stepped up in critical situations" since I'm not a big believer in clutch performance (although I admit there's a correlation for some players). Juan is 3 runs better than 2 runs better by VORP. It's hard to say that Juan has a fielding edge since Jimmy is playing CF. I suspect he'd be an above average RF. So it's probably a push.
The rabble that we call an outfield as a whole is just miserable. Duncan's the only one I'd like to see stay after this season (sorry Gooch lovers, I'm just not with you there).
More to the point,
Ludwick, Schumacker, and Wilson are all languishing in the red end of the team's VORP audit. And if Ankiel and Rodriguez can't overtake those guys, I don't see how this roster can adequately replace Juan.
JaunE VS JimmE
yeah, actually it is more then you think
but to further explain
i agree
It's unfortunate that he's as good as he is for our team but since we aren't contenders, we shouldn't hesitate to move him and his contract. Juan would post the highest WPA of his career if you stretch out the value over the season. WPA/LI is the better way to garner the predictive value and he's at a measely .07 right now. For comparison, Jed had a .67 WPA/LI last year. The year before that 3.15.
Juan is nothing special. The only reason he seems important is becuase our outfielders are terrible.
Precisely
i guess my point is
Other than
Juan
Other RFs in 2006 who were without a doubt better and remain better (trying to avoid career years):
- Guerrero
- Suzuki (though he's now in CF)
- Hawpe
- Rios
- Ordonez
- Abreu
- Markakis (depending on how you view his development and defense)
2 wins is not difficult to find in a RF. I'd be ok if Juan was a stopgap but the 3 year contract was a flat out mistake. Juan Encarnacion is easily replaceable next year.
i'd absolutelty add
Blowout HR's vs Game-Winning HR's
Probably the most blatant example of this would be turn-of-the-century first baseman Hal Chase. One of the conspirators who arranged the 1919 World Series scandal, he would blow plays at first base or at the plate to make sure that his team lost (but won bets), then get cheap hits by paying off the opposing pitcher or third baseman, allowing him to maintain a high batting average to allay suspicion about his misdeeds. (If you've never read about him, Bill James has a nice summary/editorial in his New Historical Baseball Abstract.)
Any way, I've blown this fairly well out of proportion. What I really want to say is that while it's not entirely important, from a sabremetric standpoint, whether a player gets a double with a runner on or with the bases empty ("there is no such thing as clutch ability"), it does make a huge difference whether or not he got the hit when it actually mattered. It is what sticks with us, gets written in history books, and allows otherwise unremarkable players to hang around the league for years to come.
interesting story
If I was a psychology student, it seems like this would be a great thesis study.
Emotional aspects of recall
In short, highly emotional events (good or bad) trigger a response from the amygdala, which enhances the brain's ability to store (and then later recall) those events. We recall Taguchi's homer more vividly because it was a more tense emotional situation in the 9th inning, and we immediately recognized that it might "win the all-important playoff game" for our team. Edmond's homer earlier against Maine was less pivotal (since it came in the 3rd inning and "merely" tied the game), therefore the emotional threshold was lower...ergo, we are less likely to recall it when analyzing home runs, which can introduce the cognitive bias: "Taguchi doesn't hit many home runs, but when he does, they are always clutch!"
Here's the more formal research-speak on the subject:
The emotional processes not only determine which experiences reach awareness, and which experiences are attended to, but also which experiences are processed in the brain for later use. This is done by favoring sensory information that is motivationally significant and thereby determining what information is encoded, stored, and retrieved from memory (Duncan & Barrett, in press). Furthermore, previously encoded emotional information stored as memory is used to interpret future sensory information, thus the present becomes literally tied to past memory (Duncan & Barrett). In an evolutionary sense, remembering emotional events aids in recognizing, approaching, or avoiding stimuli in the future, thereby promoting survival (Kern et al., 2005). The amygdala is thought to modify encoding, storage, and the "subjective sense of remembering;" three aspects central to memory (Phelps, 2006). Through modulating attention and perception, the amygdala can enhance the encoding of a stimulus, which should result in a substantial magnification of memory performance (Phelps)."- Mark Anthon Lott, "Emotion and Cognition: Perception, Attention, and Memory"
according to baseball prospectus
Edmonds has been 4 batting batting runs above replacement and 7 fielding runs above replacement. Edmonds is a decidedly average CF nowadays but, according to BP, Juan is very much below average in right.
BP fielding stats are terrible
Use UZR stats or PMR they're really much better.
Juan has added 0 runs with the glove and Jimmy has cost us a run with the glove per UZR this year. The PMR link is for last year but it shows Juan is an above average RF. There are also some Fielding Charts, although I haven't looked at them in a few months, that are linked to on Baseball Musings that are quite good.
I'd dubious
Perhaps it is just inherent in the calulation to ignore game situations and just merely look at range and plays made, however Juan Encarnacion has misplayed baseballs on numerous occasions that even the average AAA RF could make. I haven't seen him make a play yet this year that the above average AAA player would make.
And that doesn't even talk about his noodle arm.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with Hardcore on this one
Without any snarkiness, on what basis do you say BP's fielding stats are "terrible" and "really horrendous" whereas UZR and PMR are "much better"?
I'm legitimately curious as to what makes them more accurate in your mind since they don't seem to conform with my own (admittedly unprofessional) eyewitness analysis, whereas BP's do.
part of the problem
Here's a THT article that does some basic evaluations of the defensive metrics. I scanned it so I'm not necessarily endorsing it but it looks like a reasonable explanation. Also, here's some cutting edge defensive metrics that got really math-y in a hurry. Difficult to follow but very interesting.
And I know that Juan doesn't seem to be a good fielder sometimes but the play by play metrics consistently label him as an excellent RF. I don't like Juan and I think a three year contract for him was excessive but he's a good defender.
when I say part of the problem
long day at work, forgive me.
Reyes... Hoping for some trades
Isn't Reyes out of options now?
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jun 29, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
And I think the Stl paper
This is his last option year...
This is his last option year...
He has options through the end of the year
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Barring trades...
I find it amusing that LaDuncan's "inability to work with young pitchers" hasn't affected Wainer or WonderBrad... when they struggle, it's because they've temporarily "lost" their "signature" pitches (Wainer's curve; Brad's sinker.) Assuming a healthy Loop, it would appear the Cardinals' best starting pitchers are (in no particular order) Wainwright, Maroth, Looper, Thompson, and Reyes. With the expected return of Carpenter after the All-Star break, that would leave Reyes as the "odd man out," Wells as the "long reliever" in the 'pen, and Wellemeyer as another "power arm" in the 'pen. Troy Cate has options left, but Tony might want to keep him around as the second lefthander in the 'pen until Tyler Johnson returns.
For what it's worth, the FSN Midwest "gun" had Reyes hitting 88-89 (!) MPH in his most recent start... even with the 3 MPH the Shea Stadium gun added, that ain't the arsenal of a "power pitcher"! In all fairness, the P-D article quoted above mentions Reyes' puzzlement over his reduced velocity in The Show, compared to how hard he throws in AAA... I'm not a slave to the radar gun, but there's no reason for any pitcher's fastball to "slow down" between AAA and the bigs!
I'm afraid if I were coaching young Anthony, I'd tell him, "Son, if you can cheat, I wouldn't wait one pitch longer!" A little K-Y jelly would give him a hard "downer" to go with the 4-seamer above the hands and the "disappearing" changeup down around the knees... Does anybody throw the "spitter" anymore? All the recent rhubarbs I can recall lately involve pitchers using "pine tar"... which gives them a firmer grip on the ball; the exact opposite of what a "spitball" pitcher wants! (Pine tar and "rosin" do the same thing to a pitcher's grip; the only reason pine tar is "illegal" is that it is dark, which "defaces" the ball. The white-colored rosin only "defaces" pitcher's hats!)
I don't see the Cardinals trading Encarnacion... unless they're convinced that Rick Ankiel is ready to hit MLB pitching right now! and is ready to play every day. I'd rather see Chris Duncan in the cleanup spot (even against LHP), Rolen 5th, and Juan 6th.
signature pitch ?
I'm merely speculating, so bear with me...
If by signature, you mean out pitch, perhaps its been the changeup that is the absent pitch in Reyes' repertoire. perhaps his focus on the 2-seam vs 4-seam has rendered his changeup less effective. Perhaps i have no idea what i'm talking about.
Keep Reyes here
Tone
Whatever. It probably won't make a difference as far as this season goes what happens. BUT, IMO Reyes is certainly one of the "best five" we have right now. Other than one pitch to Wright, he did very well in his last outing and seems to be putting it together better.
by ArkansasTravs on Jun 29, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
heh
All this is a bit confusing.. he's not sucking by any stretch of the imagination - he's pitching as well as a no.5 pitches for most other teams - heck better than marquis was last year (though I guess that's not saying much... but we still trotted him out there every 5th day). If he had the run support that marquis had last year, he'd probably be 6-4 right now.
by Birds on the Matt on Jun 29, 2007 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
If you recall there was a spat between
Wonderbrad hasn't struggled because he's not very good. There aren't really the expectations (and hence the let down) with Brad. He's a back of the rotation pitcher at best while Reyes has a front of the rotation pitcher upside.
If Reyes' mechanics have changed as he tried to learn a new pitch, it's entirely possible that he lost some MPH on the fastball.
Rick Ankiel time?
Probably just the Eck thingy.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 11:43 AM EDT reply actions
This organization has to face reality...
"He (Reyes) pitched well enough (Wednesday) night that you would hope that he could get another opportunity," Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty said. "But he may not because of the numbers. We think very highly of Anthony and we believe he can have consistency and success at the major-league level. We have to decide how best to help him achieve that."
At this point Reyes needs to start games at the major league level in order to become a better pitcher. Dominating at AAA yet again doesn't do anything for him. The Cardinals are in the perfect position to develop young players. They have injuries and retreads all over the place and they're not winning anything this year.
Giving starts to Wells and Wellemeyer instead of a high-upside young pitcher on a loser team is such an obviously bone-headed decision by Jocketty... you have to wonder if the guy isn't on his way out.
They would have to DFA
There is no way they let Wellemeyer go after his gem against New York and they still think they can fix Kippers.
Reyes is merely the odd man out. Doesn't matter standings or games back.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
They could move either of those guys...
Better a so-so Reyes start in which he learns something than a Wellemeyer gem. We're playing strictly for '08 now, which makes Wells and Wellemeyer irrelevant.
I really think that Reyes
Oh, and that strikeout by
"The pen"
Reyes is as good as in Memphis as we speak.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Wellemeyer should be cut...
Getting Reyes ironed out should be priority #1 at this point. Do you honestly prefer to see Wellemeyer starting over Reyes? So we'll win 68 games instead of 66 this year?
Cut Wellemeyer loose?
If that's the case, you'd basically be saying to every ticket holder and every player on the roster: Screw it, we're going to turn this team into 'developmental' mode.
I don't think Anthony Reyes should be sent down. If there was anyone else to send to Memphis, they should do that.
Fact is, there isn't. Is Flores even injured or do you want them to fake an injury to Flores to free a roster spot. That won't happen anyways, because Tony slots 2 spots for LOOGYs and those two are Flores and Cate right now.
Outside of DFA'ing Wells, you can't make a legitimate case for cutting Wellemeyer loose. For everything Reyes 'did right' against the Mets, Wellemeyer was that much better.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
The team is 10.5 games out of first...
Reyes has the upside to be a #2 type starter. It should be obvious to everyone that 1)it's silly to impede his development so we can win an extra game or two during this lost season, and 2)the best place for Reyes to develop is in the majors. He's already conquered AAA.
And you are correct sir!
#2 starter?
Wellemeyer is 28 years old. He's a had a horrid career path to this point, but the idea that we should stop allowing him to progress and instead throw him away to let a guy who has failed over and over again at the MLB level 'take his lumps' is silly.
As many have pointed out, Anthony Reyes is a walking arm injury. At some point, he's going to have another arm injury with his delivery, especially since his velocity has dropped 3 mph in the last 2 years.
You don't throw away healthy arms. Reyes CAN go down to Memphis, why not use that?
BTW, loved the 'knowledgable' fans dig. Apparently, I'm not smart enough to have seen what Reyes has done to project himself as a #2 starter. Silly me, when I think future #2, I think of the guy pitching in the Cubs/Brewers game.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of failing
Take a look at his peripherals. Take a look at his K rate and walk rate, his FIP. Has he been consistent? No, but who is when they start out? That's something that's learned.
by Birds on the Matt on Jun 29, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
If Cards are 10 out after Brewer series....
After the Cardinals' next two games they will have 85 games remaining on the schedule. Let's suppose they split these next two games. Then in order to win enough games to even have a chance at the wild card, say 87 games by the end of the season, they would have to go .618 the rest of the way. That's a tall order for a team that hasn't had a winning record in any month in about a year. In all of MLB only the Red Sox and Angels have played at that level to this point, slightly above. In the NL Milwaukee has the top record at .590. What sign do we have that the Cardinals are ready for that level of performance over the next 85 games?
Let's look at one concrete scenario for how the Cardinals might win 87 games by the end of this season.
Let's say the Cardinals split the first two games of the Reds series beginning tonight. Then their record would stand at 35-42 with 85 games to play. Over the next 20 games, in a hopeful scenario, the team's record for each of the four games their rotation starts might be something like this:
Wainwright 3-1
Maroth 3-1
Looper 2-2
Thompson 2-2
Reyes or Wellemeyer 2-2
12-8, .600 over next 20 games (47-50 approaching the end of July)
Once Carpenter comes back, then the team would have to have a record of wins and losses in each pitcher's starts something like this:
Carpenter 10-3
Wainwright 9-4
Maroth 8-5
Looper,Thompson, Reyes, Wellemeyer whichever two of the four) 13-13
40-25, .615 over the final 65 games
Admittedly, it is unlikely the Cardinals could pull this off, but of course it isn't IMPOSSIBLE, IF their core remains healthy - Carpenter, Molina, Edmonds, Rolen, Pujols of course - and if Carpenter, Wainwright, and Maroth can hit stride all at the same time. That's a LOT of "if's". Houston last year showed how fast a team CAN come back. Still, how often does that actually happen?
Even if the Cards pulled it off, would 87 wins for the season, a 537 record, be enough to get into the post-season?
Enough to win the wild card? Very doubtful. Three teams in the NL West have records of .563 or better. In the NL East it wouldn't be surprising to see the Mets and Braves both end up with a record better than .537
So the only "realistic" hope is for the Brewers to win only 86 games or so. To do that they'd have to go 40-44 the rest of the way. Given that their current record is at .590 and they have an easier schedule than the Cardinals for the rest of the season, with more home games, that is extremely unlikely.
So while it is not impossible the Cardinals could still get into the post-season, it's an extremely good bet that they won't. They might have to play at a .640 level the rest of the way. Anyone want to be on that? So if the Cardinals are still 10 games behind a month from now, wouldn't it be most wise for them to trade any of their over-30 players for which they could get good talent in return, to add more youth (less proneness to going on the DL) and more speed and to free up salary for free agent acquisitions this off-season?
Here is a rundown of the trade value of all the Cardinals who are 30 or over:
Relief pitchers (could be very useful to a contender):
Percival 38 (high value if his AAA performance is for real; replaced by Josh Kinney next year)
Springer 38 (good value; replaced by Thompson or Wellemeyer)
Flores 31 (good value; replaced by Cate)
Franklin 34 (decent value; replaced by Mark Worrell)
Looper 32 (could have value if he rebounds from injury and starts putting up numbers even close to his first 10 games; replaced by Reyes or FA next year)
Isringhausen 34 (high trade value but not easily replaced, and he would have to approve trade)
Wells 30 (such low trade value, not even worth considering, unless he suddenly turns into Dennis Eckersley with his conversion to the pen)
Outfielders :
Encarnacion 31 (his value is modest but will never be higher; Ludwick might fill the gap the rest of this year, then perhaps Mather or a FA next year)
Edmonds 37 (replaced by Ankiel or FA)
Taguchi 37 (replaced by Mauri perhaps or FA next year)
Infielders:
Eckstein 32 (good value if he gets healthy and keeps hitting like he did before his injury, but hard to replace; replaced by Miles or Brendan Ryan, a downgrade)
Rolen 32 (low trade value, yet not easily replaced, and he would have to approve trade)
Spezio 32 (good value as a utility player; Edgar Gonzales, 29 himself, might replace him, but it would be hard to match Spezio's contributions)
Kennedy 31 (very low trade value, replaced by Miles or Brendan Ryan)
Miles 30 (modest trade value, no replacement in the system unless Eckstein resigns and Ryan takes 2B)
Catcher:
Bennett 35 (low trade value, could be replaced by FA next year)
If the Cardinals could trade four or five of these players to set the team up for improvement for next year, then we could just relax and quit struggling with this "ungrounded" hope we keep carrying around, like a ball and chain, and enjoy watching Maroth blend in, Carpenter return, Mulder recover, Ankiel show us what he can do, etc., It's better than agonizing and arguing over why the Cardinals aren't in first place right now, as the last few years and especially last October have led us to expect....
2008
We 'assume' that Ankiel will be MLB ready. We 'assume' that Pujols is only going through a temporary funk.
We 'assume' that Carpenter and Mulder will return to form.
We 'assume' Josh Kinney '06 is the same guy he will always be.
I really don't see DeWitt taking the monies that would be owed to Rolen/Izzy/Edmonds/Eck that we'd free up from trades and actually going out and signing top market FAs. We've NEVER done that in his time as owner. They've done the old trade and sign, but if they dump those guys, expect to see them replaced by the Jermaine Dyes of the world.
Torii Hunter and Ichiro are both rumored to be close on extensions, Andruw Jones isn't worth what he is going to get paid.
'08, without Edmonds, Rolen, Izzy, etc is just going to be another rebuilding year hoping that the youth movement comes together in '09.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
We wouldn't just give them away
I think we should be sellers now but we shouldn't be throwing guys away just to clear their contracts. We should be trying to get good value. We have some guys we can move who I don't think the club would miss that badly.
Walt would only trade for a good return in value
I think we should try and trade Juan
The problem with Juan Encarnacion...
Jose Guillen and Jacque Jones are close replicas and they have better contracts. Guillen's at $4m this year with a $.25m buyout in '08, while Jones is at $4m this year and $5m in '08 (versus $11.5m for Enc through '08).
And those guys don't have a nagging injury holding them back.
That's the ticket
How about we get some players who
To hit LHP...
Funny to read Wells' comments in the RotoWorld thing over to the left. "I don't know about [going to the bullpen long term]." He should be happy he still has a job.
by willievinceterry on Jun 29, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Well said, TLR
It's not hard to look this stuff up, so I'm sorry for being snarky but it gets annoying having to go through it over and over again. J-rod and ankiel both have excellent, in some cases reverse, platoon splits. In his career Ankiel is effectively a wash (.699 OPS vs L, .717 vs R) but this year in AAA he is slugging almost .700 with an OPS over 1.000 against lefties. J-rod (in his career in the big leagues) put up an OPS 100 points higher against lefties.
Obviously these stats aren't predictive, but there's no evidence that says that they will fail against lefties either. Going to one of these cheap outfielders will allow us to spend the money on something we need more while getting effectively the same output offensively.
How does one handle that
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
What's pissing me off about the Cardinals...
I'm really starting to get discouraged by the ownerships apparent inability to spend what is needed to improve.
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jun 29, 2007 3:13 PM EDT reply actions
I'm surprised about Kozma
Sounds like Lunhow played a hand
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If only they would let one of us be the
I doubt that
If we were allowed to run things:
- Scott Rolen would be a Dodger
- Chris Duncan would be batting .075 against LHP (.212 overall)
- Anthony Reyes would still be throwing 4-seam/changeup at 90 mph, letter high
- Rick Ankiel would be stuck on the end of the bench in St. Louis
- We'd have all of our new FA starting pitchers on the DL.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe you could stage a walkout
/sarcasm
by paCardsFan on Jun 29, 2007 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Brilliant.
A better way to do that would be to not spend any money on concessions for the rest of the season. See how long Pirates management like not selling $7 beers.
Bobblehead night
FSN Pittsburgh has already stated that they WILL not show any images of it happening and will use tight video shots to hide the empty stands.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
the pirates own a part of FSN Pitt
if any one didn't think the Cards owners are not cheap. this news about not signing their draft picks should erase any doubts. they are cheap greedy billionaires who need to sell the team to a group, or one guy who is willing to put their/his money where their/his mouth is. i'm sick of them whining that they dont have any money to spend. it's a flat out lie. yes they are in business to make as much money as they possiable can. but if they keep this crap up, their cash cow will quickly begin to starve and die.
They aren't leaving the game
The point is to be seen and for people to ask, "what was that all about".
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Yesterday...
--------------------
But remember
It's completely Reyes's fault this team loses when he pitches. They're 1-11 in Reyes starts, and it's all because of his ERA...not the 5 times they got shut out, or the one-run game, or the two two-run games, the 3, or the 4. They've done enough for Reyes to win, he just sucks too much to do anything with those chances.
[/willievinceterry]
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Oh well. I'll admit that my rants against him are a little absurd. I give him credit for being better on Wednesday night, and of course, he should be better than 0-10. (There are pitchers with worse ERAs who have semi-decent W-L records.)
But I don't think my raving anti-Reyes stance is that much more absurd than some of the persistent excuses made on his behalf, including:
a) It's Duncan's fault when he pitches bad, and if he could just pitch "his way," that would fix things.
b) Leave him alone -- he pitched a 1-hitter against the White Sox, and won Game 1 of the WS.
c) "He pitched really well last night, except for two or three bad mistake pitches [i.e., home-run balls]."
d) If you look at the innings when he doesn't give up crooked numbers, he's been almost unhittable.
e) His peripherals are actually not that bad.
f) The team just doesn't seem to try when he pitches.
g) He's better than Thompson or Wellemeyer.
h) He has so much potential.
All of these statements may be true ... but it's also true that he has routinely put his team in a hole with big and/or extremely long early innings, and that they do tend to lose when he pitches. I don't really think it's COMPLETELY his fault, but I do think there is more to the bad record than mere bad luck or random chance.
I don't really appreciate personal digs (or, at least, digs at my fictitious VEB handle), but I see where the sarcasm is warranted. But the truth is somewhere in between my anti-Reyes stance and that of the unofficial AR fan club. I've been over-the-top, but Reyes has been pretty frustrating, too.
by willievinceterry on Jun 29, 2007 4:49 PM EDT reply actions
Thompson to start tonight
Wonder why?
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Lineups
Miles SS
Pujols 1B
Duncan LF
Rolen 3B
Encarnacion RF
Molina C
Kennedy 2B
Thompson P
The Encarnacion for cleanup experience seems 'over' atleast for one night. I'd rather have Ryan at SS for Miles for defensive purposes, especially with Thompson pitching.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 5:14 PM EDT reply actions
I like this lineup a lot
by CardFaninVA on Jun 29, 2007 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Career vs Rockstar
PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Gary Bennett 10 9 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 .111 .200 .111 .311
Chris Duncan 14 13 6 2 0 1 1 1 2 .462 .500 .846 1.346
Juan Encarnacion 12 11 2 0 0 1 2 0 2 .182 .167 .455 .622
Adam Kennedy 15 8 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 .000 .467 .000 .467
Ryan Ludwick 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1.000 1.000 4.000 5.000
Aaron Miles 18 17 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 .235 .278 .353 .631
Yadier Molina 8 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500
Albert Pujols 28 24 5 1 0 2 6 4 1 .208 .321 .500 .821
Anthony Reyes 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .667 .667 .667 1.334
Scott Rolen 24 21 7 3 0 1 3 2 4 .333 .375 .619 .994
Skip Schumaker 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .333 .000 .333
Scott Spiezio 14 11 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 .091 .286 .364 .650
So Taguchi 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
Brad Thompson 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
Interesting that Kennedy gets the start with his career line.
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 5:21 PM EDT reply actions
Kennedy's line
He must have like 4 HBP or SAC bunts in there...
10 Games
Coco go BOOM!
by Hardcore Legend on Jun 29, 2007 5:26 PM EDT reply actions
oh, how beautiful
Now
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