Anthony Reyes' very low "strand rate"

by taiko on May 22, 2007 1:07 PM EDT Comment 16 comments

Interesting statistical analysis from Pro Trade on the Cardinals' team site, pointing out that Anthony Reyes is only stranding 54% of his base runners - which is an extremely low rate, lower than the lowest measured full-season rate (58% by Derek Lowe in 2004).

Link: http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070522&content_id=1979280&vkey=news_ stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl

The thing is, the article suggests that this is something that is largely out of the pitcher's control, and is mostly a measure of luck. In fact, with his other peripherals in line, the authors are concluding that Reyes' terrible ERA is mostly a matter of bad luck, something that will even out over time.

However, this leads me to believe that there is something wrong with his pitching motion out of the stretch - either he is tipping pitches again, or is changing his selection, or isn't getting the same life. Look at this split from this year:

Bases empty: .196/ .255/ .324 -- 578 OPS against
With runners on: .319/ .372/ .580 -- 952 OPS against
With RISP: .318/ .360/ .682 -- 1042 OPS against

Is this bad luck, or is this an indicator of something that can be fixed?

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i'll add

only one of his 5 HR's have come with the bases empty (helton). The others have been two 3R and two 2R (which came in the same inning).

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on May 22, 2007 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

half-full

I read that article too, and maybe it speaks to just how much of an optimist I am that I saw it in a more positive light than you, taiko. Just yesterday I was telling a friend of mine that I feel like Reyes has pitched well enough to earn a 4.50 or so ERA and a much better W/L record. I like to think this is the evidence I just didn't know how to find.

I'm not too optimistic about our chances this season, but I think we can still turn things around and at least have a winning record. And I look forward to seeing what our young guns (Reyes, Wainwright, Thompson) can do after another few months to a year of experience.

by john vb on May 22, 2007 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not necessarily pessimistic...

And again, this may be a difference of personalities in our readings of the article. I'd be happier if Reyes' struggles were something that could be identified and fixed, than to say that we have to ask the mystics to realign the stars and planets to get him some wins.

by taiko on May 22, 2007 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe it's laziness

I read it and thought, "Great, nothing needs to be "fixed". It'll work itself out and I can rest comfortably." :)

by john vb on May 22, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps it could be explained by a change in

pitching style. In his next start, I'm going to look for more two-seamers and changeups with runners on, for example. It could be that he's abandoned pitch-to-contact with bases empty, and is trying to get double plays and whatnot with runners on.

Are runners doubled off included in the denominator of the strand rate? I think they are.

by Valatan on May 22, 2007 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Going for the DP

the sample sizes are absurdly small, so I'm not sure this is helpful--but note that all the stats increase when you go from runners on to RISP--indicating that he's doing better with a runner on 2nd than he is with a runner on 1st

by Valatan on May 22, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he is just particularly hittable

out of the stretch?

by Zubin on May 22, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah.

That's another explanation. It'll be interesting to watch his next start.

by Valatan on May 22, 2007 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i have the same question, Val

i wonder if he starts nibbling with his off-speed stuff when there are men on base, falls into hitters' counts and has to groove fastballs. we're compiling our pitch-selection charts for the first 1/4 of the season, and if that pattern exists we should be able to spot it.

by lboros on May 22, 2007 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i did a little number running

reyes throws 4 pitches per plate appearance. when he has a run expectancy exceeding 1 run, his pitch per plate appearance jumps up to 4.2. his wpa is -.99 for the season while his run expecancy wins is -.61. meaning he's pitched a little better when you take away some of the situations he/his defense has put him in. but by the numbers, he appears to nibble or have trouble putting batters away when he needs to most.

Future Redbirds

by erik on May 23, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

NLCS Game 4

I remember Reyes pitched predominantly out of the stretch during this game b/c he was tipping his pitches. It did not go well, and I do believe someone owes me money for buying tickets to it.

Everybody off the bandwagon!

by Alxfritz on May 23, 2007 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He just needs time to develope..

he's like the non bitchy version of jason marquis, not a jerk but won't listen to Dunc...well enough that is

If there's a baseball heaven, Albert Pujols is God.

by kyle man on May 22, 2007 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good article

i'd like to see him work on his pitch counts early in the game but he seems to have improved with that (without looking up the data, i'm at work)...

Future Redbirds

by erik on May 22, 2007 4:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Silver on Reyes...

Guy Incognito (Springfield): When will Anthony Reyes pitch better/ win?

Nate Silver: Boy, he's been frustrating to watch. I think he's one of those guys for whom the strikeout-to-walk numbers are inherently deceptive because he's really working around hitters since he tends to get creamed if he works in the zone; that leads to some deep counts and therefore some strikeouts but not really the kinds of strikeouts that you want. I think we have to downgrade his upside from #2 starter to #3/#4.

by guayzimi on May 23, 2007 2:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I read that yesterday

but I disagree with Nate. I think we've all seen Reyes work around hitters but I don't think he get's creamed when he's in the zone. If he leaves up some flat fastballs (which may or may not be two-seamers) then he gets creamed. His velocity was down a few MPH earlier in the season and that hurt the effectiveness of his changeup. Generally speaking, I haven't liked Reyes' approach to pitching but his raw stuff is still good. His changeup and fastball still have life when he's pitching well.

by azruavatar on May 23, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's reassuring...

I haven't seen Reyes pitch this year so I couldn't say, but I've always thought of him as a guy with pretty good movement. Creamed in the zone is not what you want to hear with Reyes.

by guayzimi on May 23, 2007 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs