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Looper's first start

Just wanted to provide the info about Looper's first start.  Interested in people's comments and feedback.  LB discussed it in today's (4/5) thread -- How much did the Mets take advantage of seeing him the 3rd time around?  Was his lack of stamina the problem in the 6th?  Why did LaRussa stick w/ him vs. Green and Valentin?

The results:  Looper was clocked 17 times at 90 mph or above on his fastballs.  Or at least that's how often it popped up on the screen.  Exactly 1 of those, pitch #1 to Beltran, occurred in the 6th (90 mph).  His other fastballs in the 6th were clocked at between 86 and 89.  15 of the 28 pitches he threw in the 6th were balls.  13 of his pitches in that inning were belt-high and above and 6 pitches were in the dead-center of the plate.  This does not count a pitch that Beltran fouled off that inning where the camera angle was from the right-field foul pole and I couldn't tell where the pitch was, what it was, or its speed.  

The other thing that stands out about Looper's 6th inning is the number of off-speed pitches he threw that inning.  6 of his first 7 pitches that inning were fastballs, similar to his approach in previous innings.  Then 9 of his next 16 were off-speed pitches.  This change of pattern tells me that Looper probably realized he was out of gas and that his fastball wasn't going to get by them anymore and so he needed to fool them a little.  When that didn't work, and it became clear that he was out of gas, he threw 4 86-88 mph fastballs to Valentin to end the inning.  

Was Looper's problem that the Mets saw him for the 3rd time?  Tough to say.  It's pretty clear to me that he lost something in that inning.  His location was off, as he had been pretty good at throwing strikes before the 6th and then more than half his pitches that inning were balls. 24 of his first 63 pitches were balls through the 5th and then 15 of 28 were balls in the 6th.  His velocity was down in the 6th.  The homer was hit on an 88 mph fastball in the middle of the plate and Beltran knew what to do with it.  In the early innings he did a pretty good job staying on the edges so I'm going to go w/ fatigue, rather than the 3rd time around theory to help explain his 6th inning problems.  If his mph had been the same, and his location on the edges, then the 3rd time around theory would be a better explanation to me but the loss of velocity and location indicates to me that fatigue was more the issue.  

Should LaRussa have stuck w/ him vs. Green and Valentin?  I posted earlier in the regular thread that I had thought that he had owned them in their previous AB's.  I was mistaken.  Green had the only hit by a lefty before the 6th.  The other 3 hits were 2 by LoDuca and 1 by Alou (all singles).   Previously, Green had hit a fly ball to left and singled.  Valentin had popped up and hit into a DP.  It should have been clear to everyone at that point that Looper was done.  His 1st pitch to Green was his 86th.  I'm guessing that LaRussa was testing Looper, to see what he had and to see if he could gut out one last out.  He managed to do so by spitting fumes vs. Valentin but the Green AB was a key AB, or could have been had the bullpen and defense not imploded in the next 2 innings.  

All in all, I'd say a fairly well-pitched 1st start for Looper.  For those worried about the Mets' lefties beating him up, they were 1-11 w/ 2 K's and a DP before Beltran's homer in the 6th.  The key thing to watch in his next few starts is his stamina -- when does that fastball consistently get below 90?  When does he switch his pattern from mostly fastballs to a lot of off-speed pitches?  When does his location, both inside and outside of the strike zone, start to suffer?  His next start is against Pittsburgh on Monday -- not quite the offensive firepower the Mets have so it'll be interesting to see also if, when he does begin to tire, he can get away w/ more mistakes b/c the Mets really took advantage in the 6th.  

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great post
how did you get the pitch speeds?  Is that data available somewhere, or were you there?

His start against the pirates is of huge importance, imho, simply because games against awful teams are games we really, really need to win this year...

"God is back in the National League. Matter of fact, he is staying at my house." -Joaquin Andujar

by SleepyCA on Apr 6, 2007 1:21 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

fantastic stuff HC
thanks for putting this up. very thought provoking --- just the kind of stuff i was hoping we could do with our pitch-by-pitch data.

by lboros on Apr 6, 2007 6:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It reminded me
of some of Ponson's starts early last year.

Great through three, good in the fourth, okay in the fifth, gassed in the sixth.

Of course 6ip/3er is all you can really ask for out of a 5th starter, so I can't complain.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Apr 6, 2007 7:43 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Extremely excited about this project
I only wish I wasn't having the DirectTV/FSMW problem here in Champaign and could participate.  If the problem gets worked out and games are televised here as the season progresses...I would love to fill in as an alternate.

I have heard the Gameday pitch data isn't so accurate.  HC, have you (or anyone) compared what you saw to gameday at all?

by RedbirdRay on Apr 6, 2007 9:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yep, just for a few ABs
but it's was blatantly off a few times.

by plh903 on Apr 7, 2007 7:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I live in Champaign, too
No problems at all with FSMW on cable, at least.

You probably already know this, but our WB (or CW or whatever they call themselves now) will carry the KSDK games this year.

by liam on Apr 7, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great stuff HC
Have the other two games been covered?  If not, I have both recorded and can go back and break them down if need be.
Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 6, 2007 9:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

thanks hadcore
i've got games 1 + 2 covered. but we might need backup at some point --- if we do i'll let you know, okay?

by lboros on Apr 6, 2007 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sounds great
I was in limbo with the extra innings package, but now that they've got it all squared away, I can help out.

Just let me know.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 6, 2007 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was encouraged
Looper had great stuff early - nailing the corners with movement.

He obviously tired in the sixth - the Beltran pitch was just poor location, and I don't blame that on fatigue, but he was clearly wearing out throughout the inning.  I thought he should have been removed for a lefty when Green came up.  I think LaRussa/Duncan were trying to push his pitch count to build up stamina, but I don't think that's the way to do it.  I worry how he will respond in his next start.

Of course, the way he started out got me wondering if we wouldn't be better off with him pitching like that in the 8th inning.  I don't see a righty in our bullpen who can get consistent eighth inning outs.

by Speedy G on Apr 6, 2007 10:14 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

kip wells
 had a great start before el duque hit the double i mean he did better than i thought he would, i missed loopers start because i was at church but it sounded good i guess. i listened to the bulpen give up the homeruns on my way home. all in all disapointing series, though there was bright spots such as wells, looper, and izzy.

by jedmonds15 on Apr 6, 2007 1:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the great comments, everyone
As for the pitch speeds, I just went off of the FoxMW feed, whatever was on the screen.  I have a DVR and could back up and rewatch the pitch just to get speeds b/c it flashes up there pretty quick.  If anyone knows how to get it off of Gameday, I'd love to find out so that I could compare the two.  It's hard to know how accurate the TV's gun is, but you could see a discernible drop in velocity in the 6th so it really doesn't make a ton of difference if went from 91 to 87 or 89 to 85.

If anyone can help tell me how to find the info on Gameday, I'm all ears!  Thanks

by chuckb on Apr 6, 2007 5:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Looper's pitches
As I do more of this, I know I'll get a better feel for what Looper throws but any help anyone can give is appreciated.

He's clearly got the regular fastball he throws fairly frequently and a slider.  I had some difficulty with his other off-speed pitch.  He's supposed to throw a splitter but they (Joe and Al) called it a curve ball.  Does he throw a curve?  I also noticed some pitches in the mid-80's that looked like fastballs, I'm thinking they were sinkers.  He didn't throw many of those.  They were probably too hard to be sliders that didn't slide or splitters that didn't split.  So if anyone knows more about his repertoire than I do, that will help.

by chuckb on Apr 6, 2007 5:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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