8th wonder

by lboros on Mar 9, 2007 9:06 AM EST in News Comment 44 comments

two posts today; one below about mlb's wretched deal with DirecTV, and this one about relief pitchers. i separated the posts because i thought both subjects worthy of discussion, but they're too disparate to include in a single post. if you want to talk about the new TV deal, scroll down to the thread below this one and whale away at the bastards. if you're thinking about who will pitch the 8th inning for the cards in close ballgames this season, stay right here. (and/or vote in the poll.)

kinney's toast; you know that by now. not an insignificant loss, but let's not get carried away. josh didn't become the prime rh setup man until october; as late as september 28 (the 159th game of the regular season ) he was mopping up in a 9-4 loss. they have other pitchers with similar skills; that's not to say they won't miss kinney --- bullpen depth rocks, and the cards' just took a hit --- but i do think they can fill this hole without losing much (if anything) in terms of performance.

at Birdland yesterday, derrick goold ran down three candidates to take over for kinney. he doesn't say much about springer, beyond the fact that russ is not likely to pitch for at least a week (an ominous sign); nor does goold list braden looper, a guy who was signed specifically as a setup man and has made hundreds of late-inning appearances in his career. given the sudden hole in the bullpen and the presence of several experienced starting pitchers in camp --- franklin, narveson, keisler --- the looper rotation experiment seems more illogical than ever.

it's not that i'm such a big fan of looper as a reliever; he's got pretty limited skills at this point. but he wasn't disastrous last year; far from it. if i were in charge (hah!) i'd return looper to his usual role as a late-inning guy, running the anchor leg in a matchup-driven 7th/8th-inning relay. thompson, flores, ty johnson, and looper would pass the baton to one another, with springer (if he's healthy) and hancock and falkenborg and jimenez and whoever else getting into the act as needed. jimenez has been getting a serious look since camp opened and making an impression; he has faced 10 hitters so far, struck out 3, walked nobody, and allowed just 1 hit. the fact that he got the call in a save situation yesterday (and converted the opportunity with a perfect inning) is not insignificant. as matt leach likes to say, nothing happens by accident in a la russa-run camp.

i wrote about jimenez a week ago, toward the bottom of this post; did a little more homework on him last night. among other things, i sought an opinion from adam morris, who blogs the texas rangers (jimenez's old organization) for SBN at Lone Star Ball:

Jimenez is an interesting guy, a live arm who has potential to be a pretty good reliever but has never really gotten it together. Coming into 2006, Jamey Newberg of the Newberg Report (pretty much the top guru on the Ranger minor league system) had him ranked as the #21 prospect in what was a fairly deep (if not top-heavy) system. He was a candidate to get added to the 40 man roster in the 2005-06 offseason, and was viewed as someone who could end up getting selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Really disappointing 2006 season, though, at AAA, particularly since he had looked pretty good there the year before, and given the amount of young arms the Rangers already had fighting for slots in the pen this spring, they were willing to let him leave as a minor league free agent rather than add him to the 40 man.

He's someone who I could see sticking around as a middle reliever, particularly with someone like Dave Duncan working with him to help him harness a pretty solid fastball/slider combo.

the other bit of sleuthing i did was to parse each of jimenez's three appearances so far this spring. (i'm not counting kj's two-inning stint vs florida atlantic university.) as i suspected, jimenez has mostly pitched to guys who are wearing numbers like 74 on their jerseys --- training-camp scrubs:

march 2 vs mets, 8th inn:
1st hitter: mike carp, 829 ops at class A last year --- lined out to short
2d hitter: chip ambres; batted .203 at triple A last season --- struck out looking
3d hitter: ex-cardinal catcher mike difelice; hit .272 at double A as a backup catcher, .080 in 25 at-bats for the mets --- grounded out to pitcher

march 5 vs astros, 9th inn:
1st hitter: eric munson; hit .199 for the astros last year, .211 career hitter --- lined out to second
2d hitter: mike rodriguez (no info available) --- grounded out to first
3d hitter: hunter pence; astros' #1 prospect, posted 890 ops at double A last year --- doubled to left
4th hitter: jason lane; .201 / .318 / .392 for houston last season ---- lined out to left

march 8 vs twins, 9th inn:
1st hitter: eli tintor; 749 ops at class A last season --- struck out
2d hitter: steve tolleson; 761 ops at class A --- struck out
3d hitter: glenn williams; 715 ops at triple A --- F8

the stats look great, but the at-bat-by-at-bat view isn't nearly as impressive; 4 of 10 batters hit the ball pretty hard, and the guys who didn't were mostly extremely young, inexperienced players. i think jimenez deserves a chance to show what he can do against stiffer competition, but these 10 at-bats don't prove much. as if 10 at-bats can ever prove anything . . . .

anthony reyes and brad thompson pitch today against the marlins, same team he faced last time; here's the gameday link.

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Looper

Looper is not a starter, he's not a closer, he's not a set-up guy but he could be effective in the "Cal Eldred" role.

Dunc and TLR are top shelf but occasionally they get some sort of "revolutionary" idea that no one else sees then they stubbornly stick with it way too long...........pitcher batting 8th, Miguel Mejia on the late 90s 25 man roster all year to "save" him, Mulder's healthy, Looper starting.........sometimes they thinks too much

by Hinkster on Mar 9, 2007 9:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Overthinking isn't the problem, lack of talent is

Batting the pitcher 8th for a year didn't hurt the team at all, unless you're arguing that that talent-deprived lineup missed the playoffs because of the maneuver. We had more slap hitters than true lineup protection for McGwire that year, TLR was just looking at an unconventional way to get the most out of his resources. In a way, it was an effective message to his employers - "you keep populating my roster with Joe McSlappys, and this is the lineup you'll get." The rosters he's been given to work with have been much more conventionally effective, so the lineup has become conventional again, QED.

The bottom line in the Looper deal is this: if he can deliver 160-180 innings of league average ERA as a starter (which given that his career ERA as a reliever is 3.56, and that the difference in starting vs relieving is generally .80 - 1.00 runs of ERA according to Tango), isn't that worth more to the team than 80 medium-to-high leverage innings out of the bullpen?

It may not work out, but given our bullpen depth and our lack of rotation depth, plus a general mistrust of Looper in high-leverage situations, this move isn't madness.

As an add-on, the Hardball Times wrote a nice article on the general possibility of a reliever becoming more effective as a starter than a reliever, and found that only one group stands out - two-seamer specialists who have very low home run rates. The subject in that article was Julian Tavarez, who made a few interesting spot starts for Boston last year, but Looper fits the profile exactly. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-curious-case-of-juan-tavarez/

by taiko on Mar 9, 2007 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the cards already have

a guy who can probably deliver 160 to 180 innings of league-average pitching, and has done so several times --- ryan franklin. so the marginal value of looper in the rotation isn't that high.

i think looper's marginal value is higher as a reliever. with kinney hurt and springer slow to get started, they may have to delve pretty deep into the bullpen corps. the #7 or #8 right-handed reliever on the depth chart may very well open the season with the team. looper is considerably better than whoever the 7th or 8th rh reliever is; he's probably not considerably better than whoever the #6 starting pitcher is.

by lboros on Mar 9, 2007 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Looper vs a mop-up man?

Looper wouldn't be asked to replace the innings pitched by the 7th or 8th-best RH reliever, he would be asked to pitch the 7th or 8th innings of tight games according to your original argument, a situation in which he didn't fare particularly well last year. (iirc, most of his long streak of good pitching came in low-leverage situations - i.e. huge leads or, as was his apparent specialty, when the team was trailing by a single run.)

And I personally have very little faith in Ryan Franklin, he of the massive home run rate and WHIP well north of 1.5. If fifth starters were so unimportant, why the fuss last year over Anthony Reyes versus a lump like Ponson, no matter Reyes' upside? Not that Looper is the next Reyes, but Franklin could very well become the next Ponson.

by taiko on Mar 9, 2007 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the fuss over reyes

owed to the fact that he wasn't really a 5th starter. in that rotation, he was a 3d or (at worst) 4th starter --- but was blocked behind 5th-starter types like marquis, ponson, weaver, and the injured mulder.

re looper in high-leverage situations --- i parsed his performance to date last sept 1, in this post. a mixed bag, i concluded --- not great but not disastrous, as i said above in this post.

as for looper vs 7th/8th man --- in functional terms, that is the tradeoff. a certain core of relievers (thompson hancock izzy springer-if-healthy etc) are going to be in the bullpen no matter what; the only thing that's unresolved is their roles, but they will be on the roster. the question is: do you put looper into the pen, and bump all those other guys down by one "role" (ie, from 8th/7th inn to 7th/6th inn), or do you leave looper in the rotation and tack on a replacement level guy --- the 7th or 8th man on the depth chart --- in the mop-up role?

this is a question of bullpen depth. with kinney out and springer ailing, the pen needs more help than the rotation --- and looper is better suited to render help in the pen than the rotation anyway.

re ryan franklin --- his career era as a starting pitcher is 4.45, and all those starts came in a DH league. in my estimation, a 4.45 era in 160 innings is probably looper's upside as a starting pitcher; we'd all jump for joy if he pitches that well.

by lboros on Mar 9, 2007 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Ryan Franklin pitches a 4.45...

I'll be jumping for joy, while also eating my hat. Yes, his cumulative ERA as a starter is mildly okay, but the trend is decidedly down: 3.57 -> 4.90 -> 5.10 in his only three years as a full-time starter, with peripherals to match. And last year he was similarly lousy out of the pen, pitching half the year in the NL Central, home to three of the most homer-happy parks in the majors.

Bottom line, our pitching staff is thin all over, with none of Reyes, Wells, or Wainwright able to be inked in for 200 innings, and with Franklin in steady career decline.

If you want to believe it isn't madness to assume that Duncan can pull a rabbit out of a veteran retread pitcher's ass once again, I'll grant you that. Personally, I want to believe that it isn't madness for Duncan to take a sinkerballer who has lost his strikeout ability, and try to redeploy him out of the bullpen and into the rotation.

Also, the types of pitchers available for trade as relievers - Scott Linebrink, et al - are a notch above those available as starters - Jon Lieber, et al. I have this belief that our hole(s) in the bullpen is (are) going to be easier to fill than the holes in the rotation.

by taiko on Mar 9, 2007 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

that basically, Thompson and Looper will be the setup man and 5th starter. Which is which, I'm not sure that it really matters. I would rather see Thompson perhaps establish himself as a starter, and I think he'd be better in the role. However, I think he'd be better in both roles.

However, there is something to the idea of Looper, on a hope and a prayer, having a great 10-15 starts and upping his trade value. If it doesn't go so hot, well, it's the fifth starter anyway, and if Carp, Wainer, Reyes, and Wells are humming along at a reasonable rate, no one is really going to be able to complain.

This will not happen and it really isn't a good idea for several reasons, but I'd be interested to see Blake Hawksworth in the role. I know, I know. Otherwise, Cate is intriguing to me as a lefty setup man. Who knows, it's all so fluky once you start talking about 60 IP anyway.

Back to my original point: I haven't really looked at the numbers or researched this assertion at all, but I don't see a whole lot of marginal difference in Thompson and Looper assuming those roles, regardless of who is specifically doing what.

by plh903 on Mar 9, 2007 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This assumes

that Looper's starting doesn't increase his trade value, thus bringing us a better player(s) in return. As we discussed yesterday (?), if he is a halfway effective starter, that contract becomes much more palatable and may be easier to get rid of. Franklin will probably never have any real trade value.

In terms of what he will bring us on the field, this year, I think that's right. The difference between Looper and Jimenez or someone is probably much greater than Looper and Franklin in the rotation.

by chuckb on Mar 9, 2007 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And of course

this also means that management is making a relatively big bet that Izzy is going to start the season healthy and stay healthy all season. I don't understand who the backup closer is if it isn't Looper, now that Kinney is gone and Wainwright is in the rotation.

by Valatan on Mar 9, 2007 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Am I the only person

that still feels that Mejia is going to be a star?

by Toddius396 on Mar 9, 2007 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks lboros

for the in-depth info. as always. We readers always get a backstage view that few other sports fans get to enjoy. Just wondering, is there anyway that you could do the same thing with Kiesler so that we could see who he has betting getting out and how. Might be just as pertinent to whether he makes the big team or not....cheers

by eglasier on Mar 9, 2007 9:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think it's fait accompli

at this point. Unless they elevate Thompson or Keisler, perhaps, Looper is probably the No. 5 starter.

But what about this crazy notion: Why not pair him with another pitcher, perhaps unofficially, for a month or two until his arm acclimates to the rigors of starting? It would be an interesting experiment, and perhaps a way to use Narveson or Franklin more usefully than their currently projected roles (Memphis/long-relief).

Looper could pitch, say, four innings, and his partner could pitch three, perhaps four. It would also be a bit of an insurance policy, and it the partner was a lefty it would create a lot of havoc on the opposing manager's lineup card.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 9, 2007 10:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

A guy that I've been thinking

about for right-handed relief is Hawksworth. He probably would be better served to log some innings in Triple A, but I think he could be this year's version of Wainwright. Maybe you evaluate him again in mid-season and think about promoting him as a reliever. I don't know what to think about Looper, but I worry that he will have a longer leash in the rotation than Reyes. Something tells me Tony is just looking for a reason to send iron-bill back to Memphis.

by lefty fan on Mar 9, 2007 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Springer

To me, it's not so important who fills the 8th inning role in Game 1, but rather, who is filling it in September. I think that person is likely to be Springer. It may turn out to be Thompson. In fact, I hope Thompson pitches well enough to merit it. But I'm not that concerned about Springer's injury now. He's 38 and these oblique things need time to heal so, if he's healthy and effective in September, we'll be OK.

It still wouldn't surprise me if the Looper experiment fails and we're seeing him on the mound late in games as a reliever later in the year.

by chuckb on Mar 9, 2007 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jimenez...

While he hasn't faced any real tough hitters yet, there has to be something about the way he is throwing that is impressing the coaches because according to DGould there is a pretty big buzz surrounding him at the moment. I'd love to see this guy pull a Kiko Calero for us. Then maybe we can trade him, Reyes and Rasmus for Dan Haren ;P

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Mar 9, 2007 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure we'd be interested

I don't think Haren's strikeout rate and arm slot have dropped yet.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 9, 2007 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate the days without audio

But it looks like KidReyes is hot so far.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 9, 2007 1:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

pitch count

I wish I could see how many pitches he's thrown, but regardless, 2 innings with 3 K's and no hits is a good start (not a start as in "Games Started", but just as in "beginning" of a "Game Started").

by john vb on Mar 9, 2007 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes pitching to John Gall

worlds have just colided.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 9, 2007 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And taguchi got a hit...

woohoo.

"God is back in the National League. Matter of fact, he is staying at my house." -Joaquin Andujar

by SleepyCA on Mar 9, 2007 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gall is hitting now

It's strange to see the pictures on Gameday. Both the pitcher and the hitter are wearing Cardinal hats (Reyes/Gall)

by RedbirdRay on Mar 9, 2007 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tony

Everything he does is for a reason.

Why, in the last 2 games, has Tony decided to bring pitchers in with 2 outs in the inning rather than letting the pitcher start the next one?

I can't think of a rational reason... the bases have been empty every time he has done this (i believe).

by TICY on Mar 9, 2007 2:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

pitch count?

my guess is that reyes hit his pitch limit.

by dmb60614 on Mar 9, 2007 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I would assume that as well.. His count was listed at 45 in the lineup. Almost 4 innings on 45 pitches with 4 Ks and no walks is promising :D

by Birds on the Matt on Mar 9, 2007 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice outing

for Lil Tony

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 9, 2007 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The 8th

I cannot help but wonder if Kinney's elbow just bought Rincon another few months wearing the birds on the bat. I know this is not what we want, but can anyone else see Tony's going with 3 lefties. (Randy, TJ, and "Waste of Space" Rincon) and with righties of Izzy, Springer and Franklin? Add that to the big question that is "Loop" in 5th slot, the team is sitting right where we never thought it would be... a bad 'pen.

by Stan and Slaughter on Mar 9, 2007 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I can't imagine

Thompson not making the team...he's left out in your scenario.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 9, 2007 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i assume he meant thompson

would be in, otherwise that'd only be 11 pitchers, and we KNOW TLR is never doing that.

by nycbirdo on Mar 9, 2007 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why

the hate for rincon? Sure he stunk last year, but he was hurt. Why not give him the benefit of the doubt this year now that he's healthy?

by Birds on the Matt on Mar 9, 2007 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

seems to me there is a lot of uncharacteristic aggressiveness on the basepaths early in the spring. Off the top of my head, Ankiel's been thrown out at home twice, Pujols trying to stretch a single into a double has been thrown out twice, and now Yadi (who run about as fast as a glacier) is thrown out trying to score from second.

Good or bad? i dont know, but we as a team usually run the bases pretty well.

by TICY on Mar 9, 2007 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

nevermind

Gameday changed it's story. Yadi's safe at home.

by TICY on Mar 9, 2007 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Edgar Gonzales wasn't though...

he got thrown out at home.

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Mar 9, 2007 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe

It could easily be that they're just trying to get some practice at baserunning, or test out the arms on some of the youngsters they haven't seen throw to a base before.

by john vb on Mar 9, 2007 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Three lefties

seems possible to me, notwithstanding LaRussa's historical resistance to it. Mostly because I think the 8th-inning set-up guy is going to be a committee of Brad Thompson and Ty Johnson.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 9, 2007 3:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What's wrong with this-

Mark Redman settled for a minor league contract with the Braves today and Jason Marquis got a $21 million contract.

Marquis had a 6.02 ERA and Redman had a 5.70 (in the AL Central). Career ERA for both are almost identical. Two benefits for Redman is that he's a lefty and his good years were when he was in the National League. A good steal or a terrible cubbie contract? I think a little of a steal for the Braves and don't even get me started on Marquis.

by stl3bagger on Mar 9, 2007 4:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs