leave it to lieber . . .

by lboros on Mar 5, 2007 8:31 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

in a rare sunday filing, Baseball Prospectus dropped this tidbit of gossip:

Philadelphia General Manager Pat Gillick made the quick trip from Clearwater to Dunedin to scout Toronto's Grapefruit League opener and was likely there to scout Blue Jay outfielders Alex Rios and Reid Johnson. Speculation persists that the Phillies will trade excess starting pitcher Jon Lieber to Toronto for an outfielder, then deal center fielder Aaron Rowand to San Diego for set-up reliever Scott Linebrink.

if the jays are truly willing to part with rios -- a 27-year-old outfielder who posted .302 / .349 / .516 in a breakout 2006 (and made the all-star team) --- the cardinals can't match the offer. but reed johnson, they might be able to compete with. johnson had a breakout of sorts last year too at .319 / .390 / .479, all career highs. but his gains are easily explained away by his freakishly high .367 batting avg on balls in play; he also profited from playing in the hitter-friendly skydome, where he batted .342 last year (.296 away) and reaped an 84-point edge in OPS. (that's a career-long split; over four seasons, reed has a .728 OPS away from skydome, vs .815 at home.) this player'sbatted-ball data at fangraphs don't suggest he hit the ball appreciably better last year --- he put up his typical gb/fb/ld percentages and his usual rates of hr/ab and hr/fb. without having seen this player, i would guess he just had a run of good luck; he profiles as somebody who's likely to regress to his league-average self in 2007. johnson's right-handed, 29 years old, due to make $3m this year (his first season of arb eligibility), and just good enough with the glove to pass for a centerfielder . . . .

how much do i sound like a used-car salesman? the case i'm trying to build, you have probably guessed, is that reed johnson is merely juan encarnacion by another name. he's a couple years younger and coming off a better season, which might make him more attractive superficially; but the cardinals have other spare parts they can toss in (relievers, bench outfielders) that might tip the scales. the phillies, you may recall, bid heavily for braden looper's services last off-season --- they were the reason the cardinals had to commit three years to looper. they're desperate for right-handed bullpen help . . . kinda looks like a fit, no? the phils have a logjam in the rotation, the cards in the bullpen and among their reserve outfielders . . . . each seems to have what the other needs.

it's purely wishful thinking, and probably futile; as i said, if the jays do make rios available the cardinals can't really match the offer (although the jays' own website deems it "unlikely that the Jays would part with Rios" --- scroll down to the item slugged "just a coincidence?"). even if toronto won't give up rios, it may simply be that pat gillick thinks he can do better than juan encarnacion --- who is, after all, not healthy and at the age when a ballplayer's skills usually start to degrade.

whatever --- lieber's a reliably league-averagey starting pitcher (here's his career line) who'd slot well into the st louis rotation and is known to be available; someone to keep an eye on. he hasn't thrown a pitch yet in spring competition; makes his debut today. one hopes a st louis scout will be watching.

hey, speaking of trade-available rhp who've been mentioned in connection w/ the cardinals: carl pavano made his spring debut yesterday and reportedly threw well and pain-free.

within the st louis camp, the pitcher who's piqued the scouts' interest is kelvin jimenez. per matt leach:

Right-hander Kelvin Jimenez has caught the attention of La Russa. The skipper noted that Jimenez's command has been very good in workouts and in his first game appearance. Jimenez faces a tough road to make it into a crowded bullpen, but any good impression with the manager helps.

he is due to pitch an inning today, following wainwright and mike smith. the cardinals signed jimenez as a minor-league free agent in december; he spent all of last year and most of 2005 at triple A. here's the back of his baseball card. after struggling as a starting pitcher he converted to relief two years ago, but the change didn't dramatically improve his results. his control, never particularly good, has gotten progressively worse as he's moved up the minor-league ladder. judging from the hr rates, he looks like a groundballer; his breakdown at Minor League Splits confirms as much, although the tendency isn't as pronounced as i'd thought it might be. the oklahoma city ballpark is pretty spacious, which probably explains why opposing hitters only slugged .319 off jimenez in home games but .494 on the road. the cardinals have gotten mileage out of players like this one before; al reyes and randy flores both come to mind (key difference, though --- those two came to the cardinals with big-league experience, which jimenez lacks). hard to imagine him making the opening day roster, but the manager likes him, and he evidently has some important things going for him, ie the ability to miss bats and make 'em hit it on the ground. if he can continue to throw strikes maybe we'll hear from him later this season.

every year, it seems, at least one important member of the bullpen by season's end is a guy who didn't make the team out of spring training. last year kinney and tyler johnson did it (and wainwright, you'll recall, claimed the next-to-last bullpen spot in a crowded camp); in 2005 that guy was brad thompson, in '04 kiko calero. so pitchers like jimenez, cate, cavazos, and falkenborg have a lot to gain by making a good spring impression, even if (as seems likely) they all start the year at memphis.

here's today's gameday link. you might also want to check out GO magazine's blog, which will be posting daily updates from jupiter over the next few days (see effin fisk's diary for details).

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Lieber

You know, this is an idea that I keep hearing from a lot of people. I have to confess, I absolutely hate it. I realize there are concerns about the innings potential of this staff, but I just fail to see that a guy like Lieber makes your team appreciably better. He'll throw a bunch of innings, but they won't be very good ones. I just think that the Cards could throw two dozen minor league guys out on the mound, if they really have that many innings to make up, and the results would be pretty comparable. At least then you have the off chance that a guy could catch lightning in a bottle. Lieber's lucky to catch Jolt Cola in a bottle.

And seriously, Alex Rios for Jon Lieber? Are the Blue Jays really that stupid? Maybe the Phillies have a relationship with Toronto like the Yankees and the Kansas City A's in the late 50's. Otherwise, that just doesn't make any sense at all. Young all-star, best years still ahead of him, still more upside than anyone has seen yet. Late thirties, league average number 4-5 starter, downside of his career, best attribute is his capacity to draw breath on a pitching mound. Totally equivalent.

by the red baron on Mar 5, 2007 9:00 AM EST reply actions

i completely disagree

lieber's lower boundary is league average; last season was the first in his career where his era was above 4.50. if the two dozen minor leaguers in your scenario were to post a 4.50 era, we'd all be ecstatic.

i'd agree with you that the replacement starters are a better option than name-your-free-agent-starter at 4 yrs / $40m. but i disagree that they're a better option than lieber at 1 / $7.5m.

by lboros on Mar 5, 2007 9:22 AM EST up reply actions

All Right

Perhaps I was a bit hyperbolic with my proclamations of just throwing minor leaguers at the wall and having them do just as good as Lieber.

However, I do stick by my assertation that Lieber is nothing more than an average pitcher who will not improve your ballclub at this point in time. Last year was the first he had an ERA north of 4.50, and there is a reason for that. Jon Lieber is old. His k/rate is not good, his stuff has declined from the very good seasons he had with the Yankees, and I don't believe he's going to turn those trends around. Pitching in a better ballpark might give him a little bit of a bounce, but he's clearly on the downside of his effectiveness.

I also worry about the opportunity cost of this. What, exactly, would the Cards be required to give up to get one year of Jon Lieber? If the Cards were to pick up the whole salary, they could probably get away without giving up the farm, but the Phillies are still going to want to plunder the young arms the Cardinals have stockpiled. I've been one all along who has said the Birds need to deal from their strength and use some of the bullpen depth to swing a trade. But trading for Lieber would erase that depth long before anyone can be sure what the Cards' biggest needs really are, and, in my opinion, would not really offer much of an upgrade to the rotation. I realize that we all look at the starters and say that it's the area the Cards need the most help. But right now, there are enough arms in competition that another guy, being guaranteed of a spot, would quite possibly end up blocking a much better option.

by the red baron on Mar 5, 2007 10:01 AM EST up reply actions

agreed that the cards should not

give up a young arm for lieber. but looper and encarnacion? if the phillies would do it (dubious), that would improve the rotation's depth without diminishing the organization's stockpile of young arms.

if lieber takes the slot that's currently up for grabs among looper, brad thompson, and ryan franklin, i don't see how it could possibly hurt. if lieber delivers league-average innings, then thompson pitches out of the 'pen or builds up his stamina in the memphis rotation. if lieber fails, then you still have thompson or franklin as a fallback.

lieber's k rate is not falling, by the way; it was 5.36 last year and has been in the 5.00s for the entire decade, save one year. that k/9 is better than every starting pitcher on last year's staff except carp and reyes, and better than ev'y starter on the '05 staff except carpenter.

and his strikeout-to-walk rates have been uniformly spectacular --- at least 3 strikeouts per walk every year of his career, except his rookie year (when it was 2.8 to 1). last year his k/w was 4.17 to 1; carpenter's was 4.28 to 1. no other cardinal was better than about 2:1.

he's 36, yes, but woody williams was the st louis ace at that age. i think lieber still has the potential to pitch like a solid #3 / borderline #2 type.

by lboros on Mar 5, 2007 10:40 AM EST up reply actions

I've always thought

Lieber to be the type of pitcher that could leverage the large confines and the plus infield defense that comes with pitching in St. Louis. I'd be very excited (and relieved) if we traded for him, as the cardinals have made their success this decade off of reliable, unspectacular starters filling out the back of the rotation.

Trading from corner outfield depth makes complete sense to me, as some combination of Wilson and J-Rod will probably wash the loss of JuanEnc. But if the Rios scenario has any truth, the Phils would obviously prefer him and Linebrink over Juan or Looper.

by Jonathan23 on Mar 5, 2007 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

Lieber

If there were any way the Cards could trade Looper and Encarnacion for Lieber and pretty much any decent minor league guy, I withdraw all objections and give my blessing. My chief concern here would be the Cards giving up on a young arm who could have a good future for the team to get Lieber. If they could actually unload the two salaries of Loop/Enc and get a starter at the same time, I will give a solid hallelujah. I just don't think it would happen.

My biggest objection was in the context of an Alex Rios type price being paid for Lieber.

by the red baron on Mar 6, 2007 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

Lieber comparable to Suppan

I agree with you. I can see Lieber as being somewhat comparable to Suppan. Suppan primarily pitched his most effective in the postseason. Lieber has had many years every bit as good as Suppan's last year. Lieber had a down year last year but could rebound in a better park than Philadelphia and be every bit as effective as Suppan will be.

by Cardfanforlife on Mar 5, 2007 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

I've always thought

that the Lieber for Looper idea was a pretty good one for both sides. If they'd rather have Linebrink for the 'pen, then I think we could put something together involving Encarnacion and a fringe prospect or someone. There's no way we should give up Garcia or Hawksworth but we wouldn't have to. He's a decent pitcher who I think would do well in St. Louis w/ our defense and relatively big park. And he's a free agent at the end of the year, meaning we don't have to pick up a huge contract to go along with it.

I would much rather have Lieber for 1 - 7.5 than Weaver for 3-4 years or Suppan for 4 and $42. It's not even close. Besides which, if we could get them to take Looper or Encarnacion (both?), it gets rid of 1-2 escalating contracts that get pretty expensive for their value next year.

by chuckb on Mar 5, 2007 12:47 PM EST up reply actions

per cnnsi.com

Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi said last week that "we're not trading [Alex] Rios" ? not unless the Phillies are willing to give up Cole Hamels or Brett Myers, and good luck on both fronts ? but that didn't stop one of manager John Gibbons' friends who is now a scout from telling him he'd heard that Phillies GM Pat Gillick wants Rios.
-- The Globe and Mail

i.e.- no way they give up Rios for freakin Lieber

by eglasier on Mar 5, 2007 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

Trading for Lieber

I first read speculation that Lieber would be a good fit for StL a few weeks ago and I was all for it back then. He would be a perfectly suitable #2 guy behind Carpenter, especially at $7.5m. With the way pitching salaries have gone nutty this offseason, this is a bargain - especially if they can unload Looper and/or Encarnacion. Lieber would add experience and durability to the rotation, while helping ease pressure on the other guys behind him. While I'm all for giving the younger guys a shot, a rotation of Carpenter/Lieber/Wainwright/Reyes/Wells is more palatable than is Carpenter/Wainwright/Reyes/Wells/whoever.

Incidentally, the other question in my mind is why the Phillies are so intent on trading Rowand. They're not deep in the outfield. He's not Alex Rios, but he's a solid, reliable player. And tough as nails too. Remember that catch & crash into the outfield wall last season where he bloodied his nose? Just wishful thinking here, but he'd look way better in Cardinal Red than JEnc.

Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by Futility Infielder on Mar 5, 2007 9:43 AM EST reply actions

Lack of offense

n/t

by sdrone on Mar 5, 2007 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

Thompson...

Anyone else read the article on the main site about Brad's performances thus far this Spring? Granted he has only pitched once...a stellar outing, at that...but, apparently he has been really impressive all month. His sinker is biting better than in the past and his slurve and his change have apparently improved.

Here's the url:

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070304&content_id=1826963&vkey=spt20 07news&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl

I for one would love to see this guy get a shot. Especially over Looper or Franklin.

by cardzfanbub on Mar 5, 2007 10:06 AM EST reply actions

and

I think it says a lot that he got 3 innings in relief the other day. Off hand, I don't recall anyone else getting more than 2 in relief in the short time that ST has been going on thus far.

by Birds on the Matt on Mar 5, 2007 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

25 pitches.

He only needed 25 pitches to work 3 innings. I think that is why he got to work 3 innings.

by stl4all on Mar 5, 2007 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

Don't see this happening

(1) The Looper rotation stuff appears to be real.

(2) Brad Thompson is now a serious contender for the rotation.

(3) Wells appears to be a solid No. 2.

(4) Izzy is ahead of schedule.

You could actually argue quite credibly that the Cardinals' need is in hitting, not pitching.

That said, they could certainly do a three-way trade involving some arms. I just don't see it.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 5, 2007 12:00 PM EST reply actions

hmm

You could also argue that by trading Juan Encarnacion, you are upgrading your hitting. I guess that's another topic though...

by Jonathan23 on Mar 5, 2007 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

Seriously?

Kip Wells a solid #2 starter? Have I missed something here? This is KIP WELLS we're talking about here, not David Wells from 10 years ago. Kip Wells has never won more than 12 games in a season (he was 12-14 in 2002 with the Pirates) and has had ONE season with an above .500 record (10-9 in 03). Get real, dude.

Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by Futility Infielder on Mar 5, 2007 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

He's a reclamation project, no doubt

but not being able to pile up gawdy win totals while pitcing for the Pirates isn't why.

He posted a 3.28 and 3.58 ERA in 2002 and 2003. In his uninjured seasons, he maintained a 6 or so K/9, but got into trouble with walks after those two good seasons.

Kip Wells is capable of being a good pitcher, but he hasn't been since 2003. To claim that he's never been good because he never got run support from the Pirates is odd...

by Valatan on Mar 5, 2007 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

Since when are the win totals the only measure of a pitcher. In fact, most people will agree that's quite possibly the worst stat to judge a pitcher. By that rationale Marquis had a pretty good year.

by themang on Mar 5, 2007 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed wins are a bad indicator

and you can't argue with those era's, but Wells' peripherals were very pedestrian in those two seasons. He probably wasn't as bad as 10-12, but he probably wasn't as good as 3.28 era either.

by Jonathan23 on Mar 5, 2007 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

True

but I hate it when people use wins as their sole measure. I'd say ERA means more than wins.

by themang on Mar 5, 2007 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

Don't misunderstand......

I used wins as an example because of the initial statement that Wells was a good #2 pitcher. I will correct myself to point out that his WHIP in 2003 was 1.25, which was quite good. Regardless of the statistics, he's never been considered an elite pitcher and certainly not as consistent as Lieber. Additionally, Wells has been hurt the past two years, so how can anyone blindly assume that he would instantly become a #2 guy here?

Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by Futility Infielder on Mar 5, 2007 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

Of course

but you were overstating your case. You're not now.

by Valatan on Mar 5, 2007 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

Don't agree on Wells

I think he'll be OK. But Wainwright will be this team's #2 pitcher. Wells will start the opening day, but I'll bet that Wainwright starts game 2 of the playoffs.

by chuckb on Mar 5, 2007 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

Gloves...

Best gloves in the Majors at First, third and Catcher, with one of the best, if healthy, in Center..... I 'll take our chances. I am soooooooooooooooooooo excited about watching. If Izzy bounces back, and The kids on the mound improve on last year...... Wow!!

by Yadier on Mar 5, 2007 12:22 PM EST reply actions

Lieber

For some time, a trade of Looper for Lieber has seemed to me worth exploring. It would give the Cardinals the established starter they need and the Phillies the established setup man with closing experience they need. I have never believed in the Looper as starter experiment and remain unconvinced that the Cardinals really do either. It seems to me that Looper is more than sufficient compensation for Lieber. I'm not a fan of Encarnacion, but from a talent standpoint, throwing him into the deal without something more from the Phillies would badly balance the deal in their favor. I have nothing against dumping Encarnacion and his salary, but only if the Cardinals get some playing value in return. I doubt that the Phillies have any interest in trading for him; I would keep him or look elsewhere for a suitable trading partner.

by MikeG on Mar 5, 2007 12:24 PM EST reply actions

trade market for starters

is pretty steep. the braves acquired a relief pitcher much better than looper (rafael soriano) in exchange for a starting pitcher who is not nearly as good as looper (horacio ramirez). the astros had to give up three young cheap players to get jason jennings, who's probably about equivalent to lieber.

based on those deals, i don't think looper would be nearly enough to land lieber; i don't even think looper and encarnacion would be enough, in all likelihood. that's probably the offer the cards would begin with, but if i'm the phillies i hold out for a better trade.

by lboros on Mar 5, 2007 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

self-correction

i mean the braves got a reliver who's better than looper for a starter who's not nearly as good as lieber . . . . .

by lboros on Mar 5, 2007 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe that's the strategy:

Have looper in the rotation for a few weeks to start the season. If he can keep his ERA around 4.50 or so, then management can try to sell him as a "starter" at a higher price than they otherwise would.

That seems too insanely risky, though. I just love reading tea leaves.

by Valatan on Mar 5, 2007 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

I like that theory

and I can see walt and tony laughing like dr. evil while they were coming up with it.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 5, 2007 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

Can they clone looper and fill a pool with

a bunch of loopers with lasers attached to their heads?

by Valatan on Mar 5, 2007 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

that makes some sense

I thought it was a bluff all along to lower Weaver's asking price. I might have been right; it just didn't work or maybe I'm wrong. Clearly Looper, with his relatively high salary for a so-so reliever, is more valuable if he's even decent out of the rotation. Someone would be much more likely to take on that contract. It's probably not even much of a gamble b/c, if he fails, he goes right back to the pen and we're stuck with what we were stuck with when we signed him.

by chuckb on Mar 5, 2007 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

I said that a month ago

I think he will be at least serviceable for the first month or two, but I don't see him being able to start for a full season.

His salary is relatively low for an average starting pitcher. I don't mind this experiment as a way to try and drive up his value and unload him. If it doesn't work, move him back to the pen and we haven't lost anything. Jocketty didn't pass on obtaining a quality starting pitcher just so we could try this.

by Stanfan6 on Mar 5, 2007 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

Unless the extra wear blows out his arm

by Valatan on Mar 6, 2007 1:07 AM EST up reply actions

What about

Looper or Encarnacion and a lefty reliever? Looper and Flores could be really valuable and we would have Rincon, Cate, or Narveson to fill that hole. I'd love to have them take Rincon instead but I think that's just wishful thinking.
Or Encarnacion and Flores. If they could turn around Rowand for Linebrink, they end up w/ 2 solid relievers and Burrell, Bourn, Victorino, Werth, and Encarnacion for 3 OF spots. That's not much of a step back (if any) offensively from what they have right now.

by chuckb on Mar 5, 2007 12:59 PM EST up reply actions

Lieber

I think you're overvaluing Lieber, given his age, his mediocre record last year, and the Phillies need both for one less starter and at least one more reliever. But if you're right, I say let the Looper experiment continue for a while. You don't like overpaying in money; I don't like overpaying in talent.

by MikeG on Mar 5, 2007 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

Lieber

I intended my previous comment as a reply to lboro's view that Looper plus Encarnacion probably isn't enough to land Lieber. That's not clear from where it got placed in the lineup of messages.

by MikeG on Mar 5, 2007 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

you might think loop+enc is too high a price

but if that's where the market is --- what then?

it sounds like you think trading for lieber is a worthwhile idea, and in your mind looper is fair compensation. suppose the phils disagree, and they want more than just looper in exchange --- is there anyone you'd add to the package in order to swing the trade? if so, who would you be willing to add?

by lboros on Mar 5, 2007 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

If it's straight up

then we would save some $ also...Enc and Loop are owed a combined $9.5 million this year. Both have backloaded contracts and will earn $12 million next year. Getting rid of that kind of money for those quality of players makes the trade seem like a steal.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 5, 2007 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

Lieber

My answer, as I think I implied earlier, is that I would back away from the trade, at least until I was convinced that the Cardinals had no one else ( Looper, Thompson, etc.) to fill that starting role. I'm not so enamoured of Lieber that I would overpay for him, at least at this time. I would add Encarnacion to the mix if the Phillies would include Victorino or a decent minor-league prospect. Since I doubt the Phillies would do any such thing, I would hold off for now, unless they made an attractive counter-offer that I don't now anticipate. I would not trade two players for Lieber alone unless the second player was a lesser prospect like Worrell or Parisi.

by MikeG on Mar 5, 2007 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

our opinions differ on this one

my own opinion is based on these considerations: last october, encarnacion and looper both played themselves out of the lineup on an 83-win team. looper lost his job to a pair of rookies, one of them (kinney) a 27-year-old journeyman. la russa never brought braden into a playoff game in which the cardinals held the lead. encarnacion lost his job to preston wilson, a player who'd been released by a .500 team.

if i could get anything at all of value for those two guys, i would jump at it.

by lboros on Mar 5, 2007 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

oh yeah, and -----

the same two players also played themselves out of their roles in 2003 on the marlins. so twice in four years, their clubs dumped them in october --- and won with other players.

by lboros on Mar 5, 2007 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

Lieber

We tend to see these things only from our own team's perspective only. It's mainly true what you say about Looper and Encarnacion in the post season, although I do seem to remember Looper being used in some key spots by the Marlins in the Series. But based on his performance last year, Lieber is also something of an odd man out with the Phillies. And if LaRussa is really so down on Looper, why is he so anxious to give him a spot in the rotation? Finally, although it's early, Kinney, who got the call over Looper in the postseason last year, has been lit up twice in two appearances this spring. Looper could be setting up again before long. Although he's less than great, I suspect he has more trade value than you are willing to allow.

by MikeG on Mar 5, 2007 6:04 PM EST up reply actions

points well taken

and i do think looper has some trade value. contracts for free-agent middle relievers are almost as outrageous as those for starting pitchers, so there's clearly a market.

but looper, at $4.5m this year and $5.5m next year, is getting paid about the going rate for a setup man. he's an average player for his role, getting paid an average amount. lieber is above-average in his role, and getting paid a below-average amount ---- hence more valuable.

that might seem like a crude way of breaking it down, but it's how a lot of GMs think in the Moneyball era. it's how the st louis GM thinks.

another way to break it down: whose talents can the cardinals more easily replace? their current replacements for lieber are a) looper and b) thompson --- decided downgrades, in my opinion.

their replacement for encarnacion is preston wilson, who's a very comparable player, and their replacement for wilson on bench is the best from among jrod / ludwick / marrero / schumaker. not much value (if any) lost in that transition. their replacement for looper is russ springer --- again, a very comparable player --- and they have a whole staff full of other right-handed pitchers (kinney, brad thompson, hancock, k jimenez, falkenborg) who have a chance to pitch at least as well in relief as looper this year.

not to get all SABR on you, but --- using another very crude yardstick --- looper the past three years (working backwards) has been worth 3.2, 2.6, and 4.8 wins above replacement, per Baseball Prospectus. lieber's win values for those three years have been 4.5, 6.5, and 5.7.

encarnacion's values have been 3.3, 3.4, and 0.8 --- so loop+enc have been at 6.5, 6.0, and 5.6 (vs lieber's 4.5, 6.5, and 5.7). this probably explains our difference of opinion --- last year, with lieber posting the worst era of his career, he was worth fewer marginal wins (again, crudely measured) than looper+enc. but the previous two seasons, lieber was worth at least as many wins as looper+enc.

if you believe (as i do) that lieber's 2006 was an aberration and he will rebound this year, then you'll conclude the lieber for looper+enc is about an even exchange. if you think lieber's fallen off his plateau and will continue to pitch at his 2006 level, then looper+enc would seem like too high a price for lieber.

by lboros on Mar 6, 2007 6:12 AM EST up reply actions

Lieber

Larry,
Thanks for the analysis. I suspect I'm too old to fully comprehend or buy into the sabermetrics (sp.?), but I found it interesting. I'm glad to hear that last season at least supports my view; in any case, I'm sticking to it. There's a long piece in today's Philadelphia Inquirer about Lieber that you might find interesting in this context.

by MikeG on Mar 6, 2007 8:59 PM EST up reply actions

Good point

I happen to think that getting a decent SP and dumping these 2 contracts would be a win-win for us. Would a combination of Taguchi, Wilson, Rodriguez, Speizio, Marrero be significantly worse in RF? It probably would be better b/c it would lend itself to a platoon which, IMO, is unlikely to happen w/ Juan. Lieber would be an upgrade of 1-2 wins, I would guess, over Looper in the rotation. Factor in getting rid of both of their salaries next year and this helps us.

The only thing to consider is the RF defense. I know that many are not high on Juan in RF, but it's clear that he is an above average RF. How much of a downgrade would it be to go w/ the aforementioned platoon? Probably not enough to make it worth keeping him and forgoing Lieber, but it's something to consider.

by chuckb on Mar 5, 2007 10:23 PM EST up reply actions

I would trade Encarnacion and Looper

for Lieber, if only to exchange 2 contracts that get very expensive next year for Lieber's, which expires at the end of this season. I'd rather get Victorino back in return but we could fill RF with some combination of Rodriguez, Wilson, Marrero, Speizio, etc + maybe add at the trade deadline. Plus, it would give us added financial flexibility next offseason.

by chuckb on Mar 5, 2007 12:52 PM EST up reply actions

Hey, that's what

Derrick G. said at Birdland. Moreover, it was in the context of something Wells himself said. I wish it weren't so, but there it is.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 5, 2007 12:55 PM EST reply actions

Man, it's interesting to have a logjam, isn't it?

Carpenter
Wells
Reyes
Wainwright
Looper, Franklin, Thompson AND THEN MULDER!

Has Looper pitched yet?

by sdrone on Mar 5, 2007 1:00 PM EST reply actions

yeah

effective but 7/1 flyball/groundball ratio

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 5, 2007 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

mlb.com's audio feed

is the Astros announcers, they are brutal. Within the first two outs they say Wainer's best pitch is his change up ("By far"), and Dave Duncan is prowling left field today.

by TICY on Mar 5, 2007 1:15 PM EST reply actions

Audio

Yeah, these Astros announcers are rookie league. It sounds like Dunc is having a great first inning in the field, though, with two diving catches and an assist doubling off Burke at first. Go Chris (not Dave)!

by roebirds on Mar 5, 2007 1:18 PM EST up reply actions

Last year they fired

Alan Ashby who was beloved in the city and a pretty good commentator and replaced him w/ 2 jokers from the minors so they could save 50 cents. I guess they needed every dime to throw at Clemens. I'm surprised they don't have Milo doubling up as the play by play buy and selling peanuts between innings.

by chuckb on Mar 5, 2007 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

Ugh

These announcers are just brutal. They just referred to Parcells, Knight, and LaRussa as fishing/hunting buddies. I think TLR, noted animal rights activist and vegetarian, may sue.

by roebirds on Mar 5, 2007 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

That's awesome!

It's too bad that teams care more about money and ensuring that the announcers are the biggest homers possible rather than considering talent and knowledge of the game.

by chuckb on Mar 5, 2007 10:25 PM EST up reply actions

News

A few things to update upon my arrival at camp this morning:

* First, Preston Wilson is in the starting lineup for today's game against the Astros, though he's not in the outfield -- he's the designated hitter.

* Second, no Adam Kennedy yet, and Kennedy isn't listed on the travel roster for Fort Lauderdale tomorrow.

* Third, there are a bunch of cuts today -- at least eight, based on how many lockers have been cleared out. It's not officially announced yet, but it's safe to say that if your locker has been cleared out, you're headed over to Minor League camp. Pitchers Chris Lambert, Mike Parisi, Mike Sillman and Mark Worrell are gone, as are catchers Michel Hernandez, Ryan Christianson, Danilo Sanchez and Bryan Anderson. That's not necessarily all the moves; we could have more names announced when they officially release the list, but those are the ones who are gone now.

I'll have more on all of it as the day goes on.
-M.

http://yourenotagolfer.mlblogs.com/obviously_youre_not_a_gol/

by El Hombre on Mar 5, 2007 1:24 PM EST reply actions

Tyler Johnson: Dude with the 'tude grows up

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/E77EAE5C2C0CBCD28625729500141C9A ?OpenDocument

Pretty good read. Check it out

by El Hombre on Mar 5, 2007 1:36 PM EST reply actions

why is wainwright still pitching?

Evident The Wash.

by brock on Mar 5, 2007 1:55 PM EST reply actions

pitch count i suppose

Evident The Wash.

by brock on Mar 5, 2007 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

Common

Usually the second start is scheduled for 3 to 4 innings. Not for sure what his pitch count is but it should be low.

Anyone else getting excited for this pitching staff? Doesn't Carpenter have the highest ERA right now of any of the starting candidates?

by stl3bagger on Mar 5, 2007 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

carp, wain, and reyes is a good-to-great front three to me. If Kip Suppan is the #4 we think he is and FranVerSonOoper is a #5, I don't see how the rotation is owrse than last year.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 5, 2007 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

OWRSE!!

Means "worse" today.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 5, 2007 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

Owrse

I just figured you fractured something typing out "FranVerSonOoper"...

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 5, 2007 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

Pitch Count

Adding the pitches in Gameday - I think I conclude that Wainwright threw TWENTY-THREE (23)pitches to get through 4 innings.

The second was 3 pitches. Now granted I know the hitters could be eager in spring training, but still...

by STLEdge on Mar 5, 2007 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

I think the pitch count

on the GameDay feed is screwed up for the exhibition games. If you look, it appears as though every non-walk or non-K was a 1 pitch AB. Still, you'd have to say that a 4 IP, no hit start for the Wagonmaker is very good!

by chuckb on Mar 5, 2007 10:27 PM EST up reply actions

Apparently, Wagonmaker and Yadi are

fighting over who gets the ball from the final out of the World Series.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 5, 2007 1:58 PM EST reply actions

seriously?

do you have a link? that's messed up ... that ball is all wainwright's.

by jeff abs on Mar 5, 2007 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

they're not "fighting"

Yadi pocketed the ball after the last out, but told Wainer at the beginning of camp that he was going to give it to him on opening day.

by ArachNerd on Mar 5, 2007 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

Pretty sure it's a joke

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 5, 2007 3:17 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting legal question though...

About who owns the ball. My wife and I, had this debate when Doug Minkayvich (I know that's not right but its phoentical) wanted to keep the 2004 last out ball.

It seems to me that aside from the addage, posession is 9ths of the law, players have very little recourse in arguing that ball belongs to them, as it is most likely the property of major league baseball or the team, depending on whoever provide the balls in the first place.

The balls are not a gift, in both the legal or conventional sense, as they are not given to the players free and clear to whatever they want to do with them. They are granted conditional use of the balls for a period of time, for a specific purpose. They are esentially your desk at work or a paper clip or a stapler. While these things have been known to disappear from workplaces, the carting off of them constitutes theft.

Now, many of you are probably thinking, "Well, they present game balls all the time to players!" That is correct, but those would met the legal defination of a gift as they are given without encumberances, ie a player is free to do whatever he wants with the game ball, from selling it to throwing it down the storm sewer.

Personally, I could care less what happens to the ball. I think it is fitting that Wainwright has the ball, as he earned it. Hopefully, he will see fit to gift it or loan it to the Cardinal Hall of Fame as I know the ball probably means more to other fans than it does to me.

On a side note, the 2004 ball is in the Hall, right next to the bloody sock. I'll end on a quote from Bob Ryan, the Dean of Boston Sportswriters when asked if the bloody sock issue was faked, "Maybe not faked, but hyped. You mean to tell me with all the millions of dollars between them, the Red Sox and the Yankees couldn't find a piece of gauze?"

by Brock20 on Mar 5, 2007 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

Last I heard

Yadi is giving the ball to Wainwright before Opening Day and Wainer is giving it to the Cards hof.

I defintly understand mientakivickactethkcah wanting to have that '04 ball, though. Some rich Sox fan would have paid MILLIONS for that. Nice little retirment present for him if he could have had it.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 5, 2007 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

To answer this question

You must go back to the time-honored legal precedent, the case of Finders v. Keepers...

by blove121 on Mar 5, 2007 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

Just wondering....

I was looking over the stats for today's game. Wainwright threw four more hitless innings, BUT he had a GB/FB ration of 3/7, Duncan wouldn't consider messing with this, i.e Reyes would he?

"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"

by BleacherBum on Mar 5, 2007 2:59 PM EST reply actions

what pitches

were the fly balls on, if you know?

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 5, 2007 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

ration=ratio

"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"

by BleacherBum on Mar 5, 2007 3:00 PM EST reply actions

So far

Kinney is having a rough spring.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 5, 2007 3:10 PM EST reply actions

Consistent, though

Here's hoping he gets his stuff back soon.

by liam on Mar 5, 2007 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

I'm hoping it's (quai)by design (re: working on stuff). Him being as effective as he was in the postseason would be great for the team.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Mar 5, 2007 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

Not Sold

I'm not sold on Kinney. I think its possible he just got hot for a couple of weeks and that just happened to be during the playoffs. I can see him not even making the opening day roster.

by stl3bagger on Mar 5, 2007 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

watching the Tiger/Yanks game on ESPN

and while this isn't unique to Steve Phillips, I get sooooo tired of hearing the comment "Greg Maddux didn't have a strikeout pitch." The man has 3,000+ Ks and he did that without a strikeout pitch? Really?

No. Maddux does (did) have a strikeout pitch; it just isn't a Zumaya like 103MPH fastball. He got his strikeouts with movement more than sheer velocity.

Whew... I feel better now. As much as I detest hearing stupid things from commenters -- it's good to see real live baseball on television again.

by azruavatar on Mar 5, 2007 3:15 PM EST reply actions

his strikeout pitch

was that cut fastball. i guess it was a fastball. backdoor.

Evident The Wash.

by brock on Mar 5, 2007 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

Actually...

His strikeout pitch was whatever he threw when the batter had two strikes.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 5, 2007 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

The more cynical would say his

strikeout pitch was a ball just out of the zone.

by Valatan on Mar 6, 2007 1:49 AM EST up reply actions

Cubbie news

Prior started the game today for our favorite Cubbies. Went 1 1/3 innings, 4 hits, 3 runs, 2 walks and 0 K's.
Now thats what I like to see.

by stl3bagger on Mar 5, 2007 4:16 PM EST reply actions

Man...

After that kind of a debut, I suggest he take a nice long soak in the hot tub...

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 5, 2007 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

Classic!

Stay away from Kerry Wood, Mark!

by chuckb on Mar 5, 2007 10:28 PM EST up reply actions

supposedly

he was topping out at 83 mph.

Evident The Wash.

by brock on Mar 5, 2007 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

I hope Prior and Wood stay healthy and do OK

this year - except when they're playing us, and as long as they don't push the Cubs past us in the standings. I know Prior's said some stupid things, but I like them both and wish them well this year.

I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Zambrano implode this year though (not some terrible injury, just crappy pitching w/ lots of temper tantrums).

by BTown Birds fan on Mar 6, 2007 12:25 AM EST up reply actions

Can anyone explain this from today's boxscore

Outfield assists: Duncan (Burke at 1st base).

and Duncan was playing LF...

did Burke get doubled up?

by azruavatar on Mar 5, 2007 5:21 PM EST reply actions

I think so ...

maybe in the first on one of his diving catches?

by jeff abs on Mar 5, 2007 5:28 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, he did get double up.

Yadier did it later in the game. The Houston announcers couldn't remember the last time there had been two DPs like that in a game (which isn't saying much.)

Duncan was Jekyl and Hyde again today. Two dazzling plays and then drops a flyball.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 5, 2007 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

man, I am REALLY late to the party

like anyone cares at this late, or early hour depending on how you look at it. but I am aginst trading for Lieber. If you take a look at his career, he has been an average pitcher at best. and he also has sucked big time. I think we have better options in camp. Loop, Thompson, heck even Franklin. I'm not for giving up on Loop and Juan like our fearless leader is. Loop didn't do himself any favors by being passed up by the kids late last year. Lboros is dead on with that fact.

but Juan was hurt. and even though I am not Juan fan, i think for the time being,(the first half of the season)see how he heals from his wrist surgery. then trade him if he is playing like he did at the begining of last season. but then if he is sucking his value might not be as high as it is now.

Juan's only problem other than being hurt is that us Cardinals fans simply expect way too much out of the guy. we expect him to hit .300. drive in 120RBI's. and hit 40 HR's. and he simply isn't that guy. he is a very average outfielder, who somehow turns doubles down the right field line into tripples. if we all lowered what we expect the guy to do, we'll be much happier with his play. but, do we really want to do that?

so i say dont trade Loop&Juan+ money or another player for Lieber. my trade would be one of the three,no more. in my opinion, Lieber is not worth 3 major league players. he is worth 1. no more. remember Lieber is only holding a spot in the rotation till (cross your fingers real tight) Mark Mulder comes back. do we really want to give up that much major league talent for a 2-4 month rental?

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD. And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Mar 6, 2007 5:34 AM EST reply actions