OOZ and Ahs: glove stuff
I love the Hardball Times. I literally could spend hours wading through stats there, and they just keep improving, this time adding defensive stats by John Dewan. Dewan, former CEO of Stats INC and owner of Baseball Info Solutions has an improved version of his Zone Rating metric. For those of you who don't know, and I'm quoting this almost verbatim from THT's definitions, ZR basically is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out. A fielders "zone" is considered to be the areas on a ball field in which at least 50% of batted balls are handled for outs. Zones are standardized and defined separately for each position. The revised version of ZR lists balls handled out of the zone separately and doesn't include them in the calculation, and also doesn't give players extra credit for double plays. These new improvements are believed to have improved ZR quite a bit.
I thought it would be interesting to note how Cardinal fielders faired in this system compared to their peers.
The "glider" Juan Encarnacion glided his way to a .642 ZR, good for a tie for 3rd highest in the NL with Brian Giles. He also made 15 plays classified as out of his zone (OOZ), the 5th highest mark in the majors at his position. His touted strong arm didn't make much of a difference, he was at the bottom of the pack when it came down to holding and cutting down advancing base runners. Unfortunately, Jim Edmonds, Chris Duncan and P-Dub didn't log enough innings to qualify for the system, so I don't really have anything to say about them. I'm sure most of you by now have seen some of the other metrics out there regarding how they fared. It would've been interesting to know how they did in this system, especially for all the fans out there who are fretting over Duncan's glove.
Scott Rolen continues to be the golden standard at third and the stats agree. His .767 zone rating was the highest in the NL for third-sackers and 2nd to only Brandon Inge out of all MLBers. His 66 plays out of his zone was the most of any third baseman and 4th most out of any major league player regardless of position.
David Eckstein has been more then adequate at short, his .841 ZR was 7th overall for major league SSs. His 43 plays out of the zone was middle of the pack. He also started and turned 42 double plays.
Adam Kennedy was a tic below average with a ZR of .817. His '05 campaign was much better when he posted a .843. '04 his ZR was .821. I've heard everything from AK is well below average to brilliant at the keystone. ZR says he's average, and usually the truth is somewhere in the middle. We'll find out in time. Don't discount the Jedi Master Jose Wan Oquendo factor, who's always taking on young padawan infield learners and has helped the game of many.
Albert Pujols had the 2nd highest ZR of any NL first baseman with .831. Nomar Garciaparra had an .835. But what really stands out is Albert's 93 plays that he made out of his zone, the most of any player at any position in the game by a whopping 25 plays. Any thoughts on why that is? I know he plays somewhat far to the right of the bag and all, but that's just nuts. The 2 players behind him are Willy Tavares (68) and Juan Pierre (67), both speedster center fielders. Albert's amazing, maybe that's the explanation. I have an email out to Studes asking what's up.
We know Yadi has a rocket arm, but I didn't know how good he was at blocking the plate. His wild pitch plus pass ball per game percentage was .28, 2nd in the majors behind Brad Ausmus (.21). That's in an improvement from his .39 in 2004 and .32 in 2005, and not a far cry from Mike Matheny's '04 rate of .27. His '05 caught stealing percentage of 55% is far and away the highest of any catcher's cs% in the last 3 seasons, and his 41% CS last season was the 2nd best in the majors behind Pudge Rodriguez. He held runners in check, they only attempted .55 steals per game, the best in the NL. His 77 assists was the best in the majors. Now if he could hit at least as well as he's projected to...
Bottom line, any free agent pitcher is nuts for passing on coming to the Lou, because the supporting cast is terrific. It's a big reason why the Cardinals year in year out win despite having a pitching staff with less then dominant stuff. (Carpenter aside, of course.)
Update [2007-3-4 10:15:20 by lboros]: baseball today, cards at marlins: gameday link. anthony reyes gets the start; lineups / notes at Birdland.
Update [2007-3-4 18:35:51 by erik]:I got my email reply from Studeman re: Albert's OOZ (that just sounds so wrong), he said it seems like a statistical blip and he said we fans would know better then he. lboros has some interesting input in the comments. Goold at Birdland is mulling the same things, and I quote his theory::Helton has multiple Gold Gloves and Gonzalez is the true challenger to Pujols and Derrek Lee as the National Leagues best defense first baseman. But how to explain the startling gap between Pujols’ OOZ and every other position player? One obvious possibility is the tighter zone assigned to first base, meaning any first baseman who strays just a bit from his designated zone can accumulate OOZ. The other is that Pujols is channeling his inner All-Star debut and plays a little second base from time to time. Already this spring we’ve seen him move to his right, cut in front of the second baseman and make the play. He often dashes over to glove and start a double play. He’s quite deft at doing it, and quite eager to do it.
Between larry and derrick's (and his other brother derrick?) answers, I'm satisfied.
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47 comments
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defense
by mdarshan on
Mar 4, 2007 2:41 AM EST
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na
just a couple of suggestions. I guess maybe he has some foul ball range too, but would think of the other two suggestions over that one.
by HoosierCardFan on
Mar 4, 2007 3:28 AM EST
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3rd theory
Maybe this is part of the enigma...
by Johnny64 on
Mar 4, 2007 8:16 AM EST
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nice post erik
david pinto has a fantastic resource
at baseball musings, wherein he charts players' range against average, broken down by batted ball type and by fielding location. click here to get albert's charts.
the "zones" in pinto's charts do not correspond to the zones used in zone rating, so we have to guess which plays constitute "OOZ." to help you read the charts: the axis marked "2B" corresponds to the vector that runs between home plate and 2d base; balls hit along that vector are charted on this axis. the line marked "1B" corresponds to balls hit right down the first-base line; and the line marked "RCF" corresponds to balls in the hole, about 50 feet from 1st base and 40 feet from 2d base.
even guessing conservatively, it looks like albert made a minimum of 55 OOZ plays on plain old groundballs --- he got to 10 balls on the RCF axis (right into the hole) and another 45 balls on the neighboring vector --- ie, about 25 feet to his right (~40 feet away from 1st base).
by these charts, albert might have had another 15 or so OOZ plays on bunts (nice call, hoosier cards) and about 15 on popups ("i got it! i got it!" ---he's a take-charge infielder).
so our conservative guesstimate tallies up to 85 OOZ plays, which is in the same general neighborhood as what dewan counts --- and most of them are just on groundballs.
not long ago albert was a competent big-league 3d baseman, and he's still in his mid-20s; it stands to reason that he would have superior range for a 1st baseman.
by lboros on
Mar 4, 2007 9:29 AM EST
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And he wasn't a bad OF
by chuckb on
Mar 4, 2007 11:51 AM EST
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Hmmm, honestly
by Zubin on
Mar 4, 2007 9:07 PM EST
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Fun With Acronyms
by sjoshi on
Mar 4, 2007 3:37 AM EST
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and that's what happens...
by sjoshi on
Mar 4, 2007 3:40 AM EST
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And if you DO read the titles...
Kidding aside, Ozzie was the best defensive shortstop I've ever seen, or ever hope to see. He was "protected" (to some extent) from having to make too many plays "in the hole" by the excellent glovework of guys like Ken Oberkfell and Terry Pendleton at 3B... but that just allowed "The Wizard" to make a boatload of OOZ plays to the right of second base!
And Albert just may be the most aggressive 1B in the game today... the combination of El Hombre and Yadi's Jedi mind-trick pickoffs at 1B are beautiful to watch, Master Jose-Wan!
by The Ol Goaler on
Mar 4, 2007 10:29 AM EST
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On outfielders' arms
Erik (or anyone else), I'm wondering if you could shed light on how these advanced defensive metrics measure the holding/cutting-down of runners by outfielders. I remember my days in Boston when somebody would tout Manny as having led the league in outfield assists that year, and then somebody more knowledgeable would come along and say, well, of course he does, because everybody knows they can run on him and thus try more often. So does the 'reputation' factor figure at all in assessing outfielders in the way Juan is above? Perhaps along with guys noting the 'zone' to which every ball is hit they also have people noting depth (and runner's speed?) on every fly ball. There just seem to be so many external factors in keeping guys from taking the next base (cut-offs on actual hits and on sac flies, e.g.) that crediting an outfielder for holding runners seems difficult at best.
by jfs on
Mar 4, 2007 9:55 AM EST
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Note the drop in Yadi's CS%
by Valatan on
Mar 4, 2007 11:41 AM EST
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Great point
by chuckb on
Mar 4, 2007 11:49 AM EST
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Disagree
Obviously you can't tell Molina to not catch base runners so to encourage more tries, but the lack of attempts technically hurt the defense when you consider the price of a stolen base attempt below that magical 70-somthing% success rate.
by Jonathan23 on
Mar 4, 2007 7:32 PM EST
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Wow... that is an interesting point
by Zubin on
Mar 4, 2007 9:10 PM EST
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Wouldn't a reduced 'attempted stolen base' rate
Molina's arm causing lower base stealing attempts increased double play opportunities, decreases sacrafice fly or runners advancing to third on flyballs and also decreases the number of 1st to 3rd or home on singles to the outfield.
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 4, 2007 9:15 PM EST
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good question
hope that helps, it's an interesting read and something i'm sure will develop further
by erik on
Mar 4, 2007 8:58 PM EST
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Duncan Edmonds etc.
Duncan got a .640, which would have been good for middle of the pack if he had qualified, only 2 OOZ plays though. Edmonds got a .803, towards the middle-bottom for CFers. P-Dub got a .585 in LF for Houston and a .620 for RF for us. The .620 in right is middle-of-the-packish, so if the LF number for Houston. Anybody know if ZR takes park effects into account, if not the short porch in the juice box may have hurt his rating. The Gooch got a .796 in center, another middle-bottom of the pack number. Miles get a .816 at 2nd, once again slightly below league average for full qualifiers.
by mikedallas23 on
Mar 4, 2007 10:26 AM EST
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It's disappointing to see Edmonds
by Red in Chicago on
Mar 4, 2007 11:17 AM EST
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AP's D
Just a thought.
by itsalemmon1019 on
Mar 4, 2007 11:21 AM EST
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This is a super post
It also helps to explain why the powers that be are so concerned w/ getting ground balls from their pitchers. Of course, homers hurt worse than singles but our infield turns singles into outs, and sometimes into 2 outs. They would have saved Suppan and Weaver half a run on their ERA at least. If Wells pitches enough to appreciate it, he's going to have a pretty good season.
by chuckb on
Mar 4, 2007 11:48 AM EST
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Outfield Assists
For Yadi it's obvious that CS is by and large at 2B, and that play is not provoked by a batted ball or based upon fielding positions. From '05 experience, many fewer attempts on Yadi were made in '06, and yet he still had an outstanding rate. Still, the greatest play is caught stealing at 1B with 2 outs in the 9th. How often does that happen?
by Birds on the Bat on
Mar 4, 2007 12:56 PM EST
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Follow-ups
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2006/
Nice to see jed rise in the CF rankings accordingly. If he could go back, I think it would show how much better jed had been in 05 and before.
The same rankings for RF put jenc not surprisingly near the bottom, just above jd drew, and below jacques jones. great stuff.
by Birds on the Bat on
Mar 4, 2007 8:49 PM EST
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Other news
From the Treasure Coast a daily story appears from each camp from Jupiter to Vero. Today's post updates eck. If you scroll down at the bottom you can find previous day's articles.
http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/pro_baseball/article/0,,TCP_24442_5392962,00.html
by Birds on the Bat on
Mar 4, 2007 1:09 PM EST
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Howard's Swing
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/02/sports/baseball/20070302_HOWARD_GRAPHIC.html
Funny thing is, it looks like he missed the ball.
by Birds on the Bat on
Mar 4, 2007 1:13 PM EST
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It's funny how all it takes is one season
Anyone having trouble getting the link for Gameday Audio to work?
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 4, 2007 1:17 PM EST
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Ankiel
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/02/sports/baseball/02ankiel.html
I'm rooting for him, and hope he can have a full season in Memphis, build the case that he has it, and make his claim to get back to the show in '08.
by Birds on the Bat on
Mar 4, 2007 1:19 PM EST
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Bases Juiced in the 2nd
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 4, 2007 1:31 PM EST
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Speezer scores on Wild Pitch
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 4, 2007 1:32 PM EST
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SnoCones walks
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 4, 2007 1:35 PM EST
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Gooch pops out
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 4, 2007 1:37 PM EST
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Gameday Locked up again
by Birds on the Bat on
Mar 4, 2007 1:36 PM EST
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Gameday Audio
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 4, 2007 1:37 PM EST
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Gameday Audio doesn't work either
by Birds on the Bat on
Mar 4, 2007 1:39 PM EST
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Yes it does, just go to 'scoreboard'
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 4, 2007 1:40 PM EST
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Reyes is pitching to a lot of contact
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 4, 2007 1:42 PM EST
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lots of balls in the air, though
i've got shannon on; it sounds like reyes is throwing a lot of breaking pitches, ie that slider/slurve thing of his.
by lboros on
Mar 4, 2007 1:55 PM EST
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an incomplete picture
runner on first and a ball gets hit into a corner....the outfielder races over, picks it cleanly, fires it into the cutoff man leaving runners at second and third. seems like a good defensive play to me, but zone rating doesnt account for it because it is out of the zone and no outs were recorded. runner on first and the ball gets hit into the corner. this time the outfielder bobbles the ball/watches it bounce around, one run scores and the other runner is on third base. seems like a bad defensive play to me, but zone rating doesnt account for it.
a runner on second base and a soft liner is hit into a player's zone. one outfielder dives for it and misses. the ball rolls around. one run scores and the base runner takes an extra base. zone rating gives him no outs and one opportunity. one outfielder doesnt dive but stays in front of it. he fires the ball back to the in field. one runner at first and the other at third. zone rating gives him no outs and one opportunity.
one outfielder catches a lazy pop up without moving more than a few steps. zone rating gives him one out and one opportunity. one outfielder is playing deep because a slugger is at bat and has to race in to catch a little flare off the end of the bat. zone rating gives him one out and one opportunity. the degree of difficulty isnt equivelant, but zone rating treats it the same. zone rating assumes it will all even out over the course of enough at bats. will it? might this be one of the reasons zone ratings dont always match up year to year? encar was .642 in 2006, 7th among all qualifying right fielders. encar was .614 in 2005, 16th out of 19 qualifying right fielders.
many of those little things that a good outfielder does that make him a good outfielder arent accounted for by zone rating. zone rating basically just measures the percentage of plays that a fielder makes that he is reasonably expected to make. thats useful, but it isnt the whole picture.
by dmb60614 on
Mar 4, 2007 7:06 PM EST
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very true dmb
by erik on
Mar 4, 2007 9:01 PM EST
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your points are all valid
so you have to put all stats into context. you could say of every single one --- "that's useful, but it isn't the whole picture."
defense is the toughest part of the game to measure on an individual basis because it's the most team- and context-dependent (as you note in your various examples above). but well-designed stats can still tell us part of the story.
we have to treat defensive stats with the same skepticism that we treat all stats with. we have to try to use them to piece together a composite portrait that's consistent, that looks the same from different angles and by different forms of evaluation.
by lboros on
Mar 4, 2007 9:14 PM EST
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A good lesson to keep in mind with all numbers
by Valatan on
Mar 4, 2007 9:41 PM EST
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you are right
"we have to treat defensive stats with the same skepticism that we treat all stats with."
i completely agree. i hear many people say juan has a good ZR so he must be a good fielder. i dont agree with that. i think its like saying someone who has 100 rbi must be a good hitter or someone who has 18 wins must be a good pitcher. maybe they are good, maybe they arent. at least with batting and pitching stats we have a lot more data to work with. we can look at era, whip, k, bb, ip, babip, etc and get a better idea of whether or not a pitcher "earned" his wins. unfortunately i dont think we have the same tools for defensive stats.
by dmb60614 on
Mar 4, 2007 10:24 PM EST
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Problem.
by STLCardinalsFan on
Mar 5, 2007 8:25 AM EST
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Well...
So, sorry...but you're wrong.
by Mr Clean on
Mar 6, 2007 2:07 AM EST
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Obviously...
by STLCardinalsFan on
Mar 6, 2007 2:25 PM EST
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just wanted to point out
not too shabby larry, erik and val.
by sdesserman on
Mar 4, 2007 9:42 PM EST
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I'm surprised Eck doesn't have more OOZ
by sdrone on
Mar 4, 2007 10:39 PM EST
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Great game
http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/cubs.asp?id=286992
Does that guy's big mouth ever stop flapping? Can you say "jinx"? Priceless.
by rockin redbird on
Mar 5, 2007 1:08 AM EST
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