Reyes back up your velocity, please

by erik on Mar 24, 2007 5:40 PM EDT in News Comment 73 comments

It's been well publicized as of late that young Anthony Reyes has seen a drop in his fastball velocity over the last year. I found that particularly worrisome, as have others and conspiracy theorists have said that the 2 seamer indoctrination is ruining Reyes, and this particular insistence is hurting a very promising young arm. I asked Jeff Albert of swingtraining.net and the Batter's Eye to take a look at couple of Reyes' videos, one from his debut at Milwaukee in July of 2005, and the other World Series game 1. Both were well pitched games, but in 2005 Reyes was living at 91-94 in Milwaukee, he was in the mid to high eighties against Detroit. Here is Jeff's response:

"I have to say this is a tough one in that it is not very obvious. What would be interesting would be to put up the full clip and ask which one is throwing harder. They are very close, but the result is a 7 mph difference....this is good to show how much small changes may have a large impact at the highest levels."

"The clip on the left from Reyes' debut in 2005 registered 95 mph, but the clip on the right from 2006 playoffs came in at 88 mph. Usually, I choose subjects that display quite an obvious difference in physical performance, but this does not seem to be the case here."

"Reyes' tempo and timing is relatively unchanged, which leads to the health issue. To my knowledge, nothing has significantly reduced Reyes force production ability (IE loss of strength),so that leaves efficiency."

"Looking at Reyes' hips here, it appears that rotation begins slightly earlier in 2005. I wouldn't call Reyes aggressive in either clip because he extends with the front leg instead of really trying to hold his hips together and explosively rotate into foot plant. With his past success and reputation as a power pitcher, however, it appears that Reyes had been able to use his hips in a way to maximize the use of his upper torso and arm action."

"It would be interesting to ask Reyes what type of 'feel' he had in late '06 versus 2005. With the hips opening slightly sooner in 2005, it looks like he is clearing a better path for his upper body to deliver his arm more effectively towards home plate. In other words, he is delivering more momentum of towards the plate in 2005."

"The issue with the hips could go either way. Perhaps the 2006 version that is staying closed for a longer period of time could surpass the 2005 version if Reyes could figure out how to rotate more aggressively. This way he would be storing more energy and unloading more powerfully. Even if he didn't improve his overall velocity, using his lower body more effectively should take some stress off of his arm in the long run."

Big thanks to Jeff for breaking down the video for us. Thoughts anyone?

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He throws his shoulder open

on the left. Violently. big no-no. Allows you to generate extra velocity, but makes control really difficult.

On the right he's under control.

by rmerrill on Mar 24, 2007 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

What Reyes has done differently can be seen in 2 major places.

As pointed out, his left shoulder/hips open a little earlier in 2005. While this can lead to better velocity, it can end up leaving the ball up in the zone, and out over the plate vs. lefties.
Reyes was noticeably more crouched (hunched/compact) in 2005. Again, the upright posture and closed front side allow for better control, but slow velocity.

Pitchers are all the same. Once in a decade do you see a guy who can throw mid 90s consistently and hit his spots. That's why most location pitchers live around 88-91. Maybe their initial, 'God-given' strength didn't allow for 96, but to hit your spots at an MLB rate requires a closed front side.

by DuncanDipper on Mar 25, 2007 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

As you all know, a 2-seemer will travel 3 mph slower than a 4 seemer. It's just a matter of physics really. You are trading movement for speed.

by DuncanDipper on Mar 25, 2007 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i didn't know that

Any more details as to why it would work that way?

"God is back in the National League. Matter of fact, he is staying at my house." -Joaquin Andujar

by SleepyCA on Mar 25, 2007 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

increased drag

on the 2-seamer. rotation creates drag, which yields movement.

by rmerrill on Mar 25, 2007 3:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

doesn't make sense yet

I thought a two seamer had less drag. Seams produce drag. You throw a 2 seamer such that only 2 seams cross the ball's rotation, whereas a 4 seamer you get 4 seams across the rotation. A 4 seamer rises because your creating 4 seams of drag underneath the ball, 4 seams of accelerated flow on top. Since slower moving air has more pressure than faster moving air, 4 seamer rises. A 2 seamer doesn't manufacture drop, it just creates less of these forces so gravity has more of its natural effect. Nevertheless, 2 seamer should still equal less drag on velocity, right?

by Secret Weapon on Mar 25, 2007 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I always thought that

it was the tight grip along the seams that made the 2-seamer harder to throw as hard. Whereas on the 4-seamer you throw it more off your fingertips which allows that little extra pop.

by plh903 on Mar 25, 2007 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That sounds pretty good to me

I was just guessing. So the increased exposure of the seams on the 4-seamer allows the backspin to have more of an effect, the way a lot of backspin on a whiffle ball tends to make it float. Where the 2-seamer gets less lift and simply drops more than you expect.

by rmerrill on Mar 25, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2 seam velo

A big part of the difference in velocity between a two seam versus a four seam fastball has to do with the wrist action. You throw a four seam, typically, with a straight, "pulling down" motion. This generates backspin, keeping the ball up in the air, similar to the way a golf ball stays up.

On a two seam fastball, if a pitcher throws it as a "sinker", he pronates his wrist and turns over on the ball. This creates a different angle of rotation on the ball, leading to the dropping movement that a sinker has.

On a similar note, this is what causes a cutter to both move laterally and drop. Anytime you introduce spin of a direction other than backspin, you reduce the velocity a ball can achieve. There are only two ways to create movement and remove velocity. You can spin the ball, meaning to introduce side or overspin, and you can slip the ball, meaning to grip the ball in a way that causes it to come out of your hand with less forward momentum. All offspeed pitches fall into one of these two categories. (Except the knuckleball, which is a special situation) The sinker is really, technically speaking, an offspeed pitch.

One last thing: two seam fastballs don't necessarily have to be sinkers. Verlander, I believe, throws a two seamer without turning it over. The seam arrangement alone will create a slightly different spin, but without the wrist action, the velocity of a two seam fastball is very similar to a four seamer.

by the red baron on Mar 25, 2007 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks

that makes a lot more sense.

"God is back in the National League. Matter of fact, he is staying at my house." -Joaquin Andujar

by SleepyCA on Mar 26, 2007 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Welcome

I was a pitcher in my younger years, and my grandfather was a minor league player in the Cardinals' system after WWII. (In fact, in a weird way, the Cardinals are actually the reason I exist, as he met my grandmother while here in St. Louis) When I was little, we would break down pitchers on TV while we were watching games, so I started paying attention to what made the ball do what at an early age.

by the red baron on Mar 26, 2007 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

drag, movement, physics

I think you all have the mechanics side of things very well represented, but there are a couple physics myths being propogated, according to what I've read. Robert Adair's Physics of Baseball shows that nobody's---not even Quisenberry's---fastball "rises," in the sense that it holds an upward trajectory as it crosses the plate. Even a high hard 4-seamer's going to be headed downward relative to the top of it's arc of trajectory by the time it hits the strike zone. Hitters will swear there are rising fastballs, but that's likely due to their eyes being conditioned to their perspective: when the eye/brain is tuned to react within 0.8 seconds, it makes several reality-sacrifices to get that reaction timed correctly. That is, they're trained to see 4-seamers as straight because they overcompensate for the arc on 2-seamers or curves.

As for the drag (again, I'm mainly getting this from Adair), the seams generate turbulence, which (counterintuitively) creates a pocket of low pressure. A nice, spherical low-pressure zone allows the ball to escape drag. The 4-seamer creates a larger (or better put, more even) pocket of low pressure, reducing the resistance and allowing it to maintain velocity better than a 2-seamer. Think of a golfball: all those dimples allow it to travel much farther than a smooth ball would. Two-seamers and all other pitches with movement play with the unevenness of this turbulent zone to create different breaks.

Then there's the knuckleball, which is mainly butterfly ointment and voodoo.

by Snacks LaPoint on Mar 26, 2007 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

great discussion starter erik

thanks for providing this video --- the mystery deepens. his deliveries appear almost identical in these two clips, yet his velocity undeniably is down --- derrick goold wrote about it in his feature on reyes two or three weeks ago.

for whatever it's worth, hitters have not been making solid contact on reyes' 4-seamer this spring --- lot of foul balls and pop-ups, which (per goold) is the result reyes is looking for.

he's pitching today, and it's on TV ---- pay attention to how well batters make contact on fastballs above the waist.

by lboros on Mar 25, 2007 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shoulder

I agree that the younger Reyes appears to be slightly more open and violent in his throwing motion but it seems fractional and the older Reyes could be exhibiting more control with what appears to be a later release point that results as a by-product. However, the rotation of the hips is also well taken. I'd like to see a shot from directly above. His posture seems more relaxed in older Reyes and perhaps he is not driving off the mound with his legs as aggressively as in the past. This would explain the hips openning sooner and the more violent shoulder whip as his motion catches up with his leg drive.

All my friends became Cardinal fans and grew up happy and liberal. I became a Cub fan and grew up imbittered and conservative." -- George Will

by wannabeGedman on Mar 24, 2007 6:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

a little troubled...

I must admit erik that i'm a bit troubled by the pejorative label of "conspiracy theorists" to someone positing, believing, and/or spreading the legitimate theory that Duncan's insistence on Reyes using the two-seamer is causing his reduced velocity.

I should state for the record, I don't have an opinion about what the issue for Reyes is. I hope it's not his shoulder. I don't think a very strong case has been made by any party, which is why I'm troubled by the label being thrown about very casually.

Unfortunately, the term very quickly allows one reading it to dismiss out-of-hand as preposterous the theory that Reyes learning a new pitch has altered his mechanics, confidence, approach, or results. I just don't see this as being some crackpot theory. I also don't really see any evidence for it.

Especially considering the post a few days ago from one of the other moderators about civil discussions and "guidelines," I was a little disappointed to see such tactics used to dismiss a theory with which you seemingly disagree.

If I've missed something, I'd love to be enlightened. Thanks in advance.

by HoosierCardFan on Mar 24, 2007 6:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

but i've been one of those

conspiracy theorists, and it's not a crackpot theory. Maybe it was a flippant choice of words on my part, it is more then a valid thought IMO.

We've heard from beat writers that it's a non issue, that Reyes had a bad experience at USC, etc., but now he's going to be the good soldier. Maybe it's true, from what we've heard this spring, Reyes is back to 90-91 and he's finally beginning to trust the sinker. If so, great, let's just hope it works out. If it doesn't there will be plenty of blame happening.

I don't know for sure if he changed his mechanics due to the 2 seam stuff, or if he was hurt, or he just changed his habits. none of us do

Future Redbirds

by erik on Mar 24, 2007 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks for clearing that up.

well thanks for helping me understand. I truly thought, esp bc of the choice of words, that you were thinking that it was a crazy theory.

At the very least, he may have slightly lost his "feel" for his 4 seamer, and at worst, has a shoulder injury. Disappointingly for clarity, there are about a thousand other possibilities in between (ok..clearly a thousand is an overstatement, but then again....).

by HoosierCardFan on Mar 24, 2007 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh, and,

I guess because I was educated in History, among many other things, but "conspiracy" refers to something illegal and covert in nature. And even though it's probably trite to say so, I don't think it illegal to ruin your pitcher's mechanics; moreover, I don't think that secretly Duncan, TLR, Marty Mason, or anyone else is trying to ruin his mechanics (you'd have a better case for suggesting Jamie Garcia, Troy Cate, etc ;) ).

In a world where conspiracy actually happens all the time on every level of society, I just wanted to try to make sure we weren't resorting to name calling, even if it's appropriate or self-directed. :)

by HoosierCardFan on Mar 24, 2007 7:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

no problem

HFC. I see where you are coming from. I think Dunc and co know what they are doing, but making a power guy like Reyes and reducing him to a pitch to contact type is wrong. i have a feeling there is some of that going on, but there's also some other things on reyes, be it picking up different habits, fatigue, injury, or whatever.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Mar 24, 2007 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, it's a damn good conspiracy

if that's what it is, because Reyes wasn't going to be a successful major-league pitcher trying to blow his 4-seamer by people like he did in college and the minors. Nor was he going to be successful with the Cardinals with a high flyball-to-groundball ratio.

I read a story about him working on his sinker over the winter, with his father catching him the backyard. He's evidently taken it to heart. Perhaps he believes it's the right thing to do.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 24, 2007 7:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

Most of you know I have been one of the biggest "suspects" of reyes. I haven't bought into the hype, but have seen the flashes just want to see consistency...However I say before we get worked up over a few mph what makes him more successful...lets say this year he throws slower but isnt as wild and overall work is more consistent and Im not talkign about Wins and losses, but say going deeper in games less walks etc...To me the consistency is the issue, however if losing MPH makes him worse then Id say they conspiracy theorists have a point

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Mar 24, 2007 8:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

between college and the minors

Reyes had a 5.5:1 K:bb ratio.

The idea that Reyes is a wild pitcher is simply inaccurate regardless of what we've seen in the majors. He thrived on low walk counts and pounding the zone with very good accuracy and control of his 4-seam fastball.

I don't know where the MPH went and even when people break down videos, I've never been able to really pick up on the mechanics process but the MPH should concern us. Unless he reverts to throwing the 2-seamer as a primary pitch, a 91MPH 4-seam fastball is obviously more hittable than a 95MPH 4-seam fastball.

by azruavatar on Mar 24, 2007 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

correction

the ratio was just in the minors not college. . . I misread his stat page.

by azruavatar on Mar 24, 2007 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

college

I can't comment on his college or minors career I'm just stating what limited things i have seen in the pros and making a ball park statement that he has to be judged by consitency and longevity IMO rather than mph

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Mar 24, 2007 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even in the majors he hasn't been wild

he has a 2:1 K:BB rate

He's definitely walked more people in the majors but I still wouldn't call him wild. That's not the heart of Reyes's flawed year last year.

The club was trying to get him to pitch in a manner he wasn't accustomed to. Even if you don't want to blame the 2-seamer, Reyes has never been a groundball pitcher. He's a high-strikeout, flyball pitcher (think Jason Schmidt). That type of pitcher can be successful but when the club is asking you to pitch in a manner that's decidedly different than what you are used to (while at the same time moving up the bigs) then you are going to have problems.

(This comment isn't necessarily directed at you punchinjudy, but the "wild" in your first post and in other posters comments is patently inaccurate, imo.)

by azruavatar on Mar 24, 2007 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe wild

isnt the best term, and youre right if they were messing with his mechancis and stuff it can eb a factor...My major point though is the "whole work as a pro" or even lets give him a full yr..cause didnt he bounce back and forth last yr?

my major point is not MPH but wins losses,innings per start,walks,games started all that...Cause if mechanics get him hurt than you have issues...You have to factor it all in when you say "conspiracy" or maybe you dont maybe they did change him but if it works who cares?

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Mar 24, 2007 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

PUJOLS/TLR

not sure if it was posted, but love this article...Im not going to bash media but havent approved with how it seems they go out of their way to paint a bleak picture of BIg AL...but I love this article...http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/787BDDD89DE3AF4C862572A8000B9990 ?OpenDocument

Thought it was a good read..

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Mar 24, 2007 8:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Simple Theory

I think it was just a poorly calibrated radar gun. He opposed Verlander in that start, and Verlander was throwing in the 88-90 mph range on the Fox gun. Verlander normally lives in the mid to high 90's.

It's hard to imagine the Tigers taking as many late swings as they did on an 88 mph fastball. I think the gun was slow throughout the playoffs.

by Sonicblast12 on Mar 24, 2007 9:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey, Sonic

We agree again.

I was going to post something similar - the gun in game 1 was way off for Verlander and Reyes.

I don't recall it being as obvious in subsequent games, but it was blatant in game 1.

Do you have the other half of this amulet?

by Speedy G on Mar 24, 2007 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That woudl carry more weight

if he threw 94 in other starts. I saw him more than once last year and never saw anything hit 94.

Of course, one of the times was the ChiSox game with the hosed radar gun. hahahah.

by sdrone on Mar 25, 2007 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

off topic

This brings up an interesting point about radar guns in general. If the people in charge of running them for baseball games, of which there are 2430 per year, can't keep them accurate, then how can we trust them for the purpose of validating speed limit violations?

by john vb on Mar 25, 2007 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They probably aren't used much

outside of games during the season. So you don't know there's a problem until you use them during a game.

by sdrone on Mar 25, 2007 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Fox wasn't using radar at that point. It was a complicated system of cameras...which everyone had been commenting were juiced up till that Game 1 where they were probably -5.

But even the worst Stalker reading on a small baseball coming out of a moving pitcher's hand with bats and netting and people in the way is only going to be 2-3 mph off. A car is a lot easier to measure #1, but even so: there's a reason they give you at least a 5 mph cushion...

Pujols > God

by joker24 on Mar 25, 2007 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fox Guns

Guns or cameras or whatever, the main readout on the broadcast of game one was bad. Verlander hit 94 twice the whole game, Looper topped out at 90, Fernando Rodney only hit 92 once or maybe twice.

The biggest indicator of the problem with the speed gun, though, was the Fox Track thing. I think it was Edmonds' first at bat; Verlander threw a high fastball up and away that Jimmy swung through. The readout on the main bar at the top of the screen read 89 mph. Buck and McCarver commented "he has everything working here in the early going," and they cut to the Fox Track screen. The same pitch read 94 on that feature. Every time they went to Fox Track it was consistently 4-5 mph faster. I trust the tracking system on that feature a little more, given that it put every pitcher more in the range of where they usually throw. That would put Reyes hitting 93 a fair number of times during the game. The late swing for strike three he coaxed out of Guillen in the fourth inning would have been 93 or maybe 94.

For whatever it's worth, I don't think there's much wrong with Anthony mechanically. I think it was more a question of confidence and intent. You have to mean to throw the ball hard. If Reyes was lacking in the confidence department, due to adjustments he was trying to make on the fly, without any real comfort level, the intent to really let it go probably wouldn't be there. Carlos Gomez, who does an outstanding job of breaking down pitching mechanics for the hardball Times, (he goes by ChadBradfordWannabee) often talks about intent when discussing velocity. Even a pitcher who has so-called effortless velocity is throwing hard on purpose. If a pitcher doesn't feel food about what he's doing, he's going to be tentative with everything he throws.

Just my opinion.

by the red baron on Mar 26, 2007 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't feel "good"

Son of a bitch. You have got to be kidding me. Proof read your goddamn posts, moron.

by the red baron on Mar 26, 2007 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't be so hard on yourself

Besides it's funnier when you don't check. j/k

Actually, I can get pretty worked up when I make a mistake like that. I sound like Yosemite Sam with the V-chip removed.

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Mar 26, 2007 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

I'm thinking that in the minor leagues he wasted alot of pitches in order to strike people out. How long waws his average game in the minor leagues?

by tnek5 on Mar 24, 2007 10:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well Speedy,

All of this time, I thought I was the only one that was right all of the time.

Looks like I have company.

by Sonicblast12 on Mar 24, 2007 10:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hector luna update

the indians optioned him to triple-a yesterday.

http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070324&content_id=1857329&vkey=spt20 07news&fext=.jsp&c_id=cle

by sjoshi on Mar 24, 2007 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hector Moon

A little off topic, but Hector Luna was one of biggest pet peeves with the Cardinals (along with the fascination Cards' fans have with Mark Buerhle). I thought he was a waste of a roster spot when they got him in the Rule V draft and his unmotivated play in Spring Training and at Memphis always killed me.

by IC Cards Fan on Mar 24, 2007 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think people

liked him because he was a second baseman who could actually hit and he didn't cost a damn thing. per baseball reference his MLB stats:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lunahe01.shtml

.286/.338/.409, not bad...

by eglasier on Mar 26, 2007 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yet there is a great benefit

to the conversion to the groundball religion. Look at Chris Carpenter. He has gone from a good to great pitcher under Duncan, precisely by adopting his philosophy.

Reyes "high and fast" just isn't as potent without a "slightly faster and much lower" complement. A 4-seamer and a change does not a successful starter make.

by Red in Chicago on Mar 24, 2007 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The kid has had

what, 3, maybe 4 really good starts in a little more than a year? I'm pulling for him as much as anyone, but until he shows some consistency, I'll be skeptical, whether he's throwing 100 or 75 mph.

by cardsrul on Mar 25, 2007 12:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you're selling him short, ruly

reyes has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 11 of his 18 major-league starts --- 61 percent. all 11 of those starts lasted at least 5 innings. that's not counting the postseason.

for comparison's sake, jeff suppan (supposedly the epitome of consistency) last year allowed 3 runs or fewer 21 times in 32 outings --- 65 percent.

reyes' stats were ruined by 3 terrible starts --- august 16 vs cin, sep 8 vs arizona, and the season finale. he needs to do better damage control in his "off" starts, and he needs to have more 6- and 7-inning outings as opposed to 5-inning outings.

these are attainable improvements --- very typical adjustments for first-year pitchers. if he can make them, his bottom-line stats will be to everyone's liking.

by lboros on Mar 25, 2007 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

forward momentum

In the clip on the left Reyes starts moving forward about 20-21 frames in. In the one of the right he starts moving forward about five frames later. In both his foot lands at the same time, meaning that his plant foot has moved further in the same amount of time. This has two implications:

by traveling further in the same amount of time his forward momentum is faster, therefore helping his velocity.
by being further forward his hips/torso has greater torque.

This might well explain some of the difference in velocity.

by whitey ball on Mar 25, 2007 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

MPH

Why be concerned with MPH over results?? John Tudor,a Cardinal and VEB favorite,never threw over 87-89 in his life. he won 20 games twice by changing speeds and letting his good defense help him. If reyes gets the desired results throwing 88 mph i think we will all be satisfied. I hate how everyone,including myself from time to time, gets such a hard-on over velocity. its not a d**k measuring contest its about results

If you dont have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs....Whitey Herzog

by El Capitan on Mar 25, 2007 4:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you're missing the point

Reyes had results, outstanding results in the minors due to his 90-92 mph fastball that at times he could get up to 95, and a change up that complimented it.

He comes to the majors, and after a few starts he looked like a soft-tosser, and he couldn't set up his change effectively because he couldn't throw his fastball like he used to.

if he's lost velocity, that's troubling because of the type of pitcher he is. so is he hurt? tired? messed up mechanics? i would like to know, a lot of people would like to know.

He's not the same type of pitcher as tudes at all, and this is a different era of baseball.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Mar 25, 2007 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well said erik

it's not a d**k measuring contest --- it's about effective pitching. velocity is very important to reyes' effectiveness. if he's topping out at 91 instead of 95, there are things he can't do as a pitcher.

look what happened to matt morris. when his fastball was at 92-95 in the late 1990s and early 2000s, he was an all-star pitcher. when he last 3 to 5 mph off the fastball, he became a completely different type of pitcher --- not to mention a much less effective one.

seems silly to have to explain why it would be important for a baseball pitcher to throw the ball hard . . . .

by lboros on Mar 25, 2007 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

EXACTLY!

In this age of Fantasy baseball, FAR too many amateur baseball "experts" are infatuated with the speed of pitches. We as Cardinals fans have seen numerous examples of why and how pitchers who throw 90mph or less can be equally or even more effective than someone throwing their fastball at a much higher speed. Also, the guys throwing at a more "controlled" speed are usually more durable as well. The keys to successful pitching are excellent control and effective changing of speeds and pitches to confuse the batter. That's good enough for me.

Cards fan stuck in Chicago.

by dhaab on Mar 25, 2007 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i could care less

about velocity in general, i care about how many outs he can get. Reyes gets a lot of his outs without his defense due to a good fastball and a devastating change. if suddenly he's less effective with that fastball, then what's wrong with trying to understand why.

look, reyes ain't jeff suppan or john tudor, bob tewksbury or whatever. he struck out more then a batter per inning in the minors because he could bring the heat and have good control. his game is power. i'm just wondering where the power went, that's all...

Future Redbirds

by erik on Mar 25, 2007 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

there could be many explanations for it

my favorite is that the two-seamer, because it has more movement, also costs him 3-4 mph on his fastball. But it could also be different radar guns. He may also be pacing himself more in order to pitch further into the game. I really think that, when he needs to dial it up to 94 or 95, he'll be able to do that. We don't really have any reason to believe he's injured so there's probably some viable explanation, whether it's one of the ones I listed or some other.

by chuckb on Mar 25, 2007 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cards Rotation Announced

1.Carp
2.Wells
3.Looper
4.Wagonmaker
5.Reyes

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070325&content_id=1858520&vkey=spt2007news&fex t=.jsp

by TexWX on Mar 25, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looper pitched well enough to be the flipping

3rd starter? How does that make any sense.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2007 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In hindsight

this could perhaps be an instance of Tony setting up the rotation so that Looper doesn't face a division rival right away.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sounds like

more of a tactical thing. Goold's blog talks about Tony looking six weeks ahead, plotting out matchups, etc. I don't think anyone is pronouncing Looper the third-best starter at this stage (not that that would mean anything anyway).

by DCGreg on Mar 25, 2007 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

flip-flop 4 and 5

4 is Reyes and 5 is Wainwright according to that link.

by madding on Mar 25, 2007 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is this Murray Chass?

Why so bitter toward fantasy baseball? Next you'll be calling it "new age." I'd say fantasy sports have created more knowledgeable fans, period. Sure, most leagues award points for Ks (which often come from high-velocity SPs), but many also account for WHIP, K/BB and even plain ol' outs. There's plenty of appreciation for the finesse pitchers of the game.

Anyway, guys who throw at "controlled" speeds are not durable because they throw slowballs; they're durable because they have good mechanics. The same principle applies to high-velocity guys. One pitcher's "controlled" speed would be damaging to another pitcher's arm. I don't see why you'd want to turn Reyes into Suppan; they're different arms.

by baw on Mar 25, 2007 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

20 games?

FWIW, other than 1985, John Tudor never won more than 13 games in a season in the majors.

by DizzyDean17 on Mar 25, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

reyes

just hit 93 mph

by tnek5 on Mar 25, 2007 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good to hear!

n/t

by sdrone on Mar 25, 2007 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

reyes effectiveness

i understand that reyes was effective with that approach in the minors, but major league hitters tend to lay off the high fastball that he was using so much. im not saying this approach is foolproof just that its worth a shot because with the exception of a few outings reyes approach wasnt really working.

If you dont have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs....Whitey Herzog

by El Capitan on Mar 25, 2007 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The thing is

that they made those adjustments last year, before he ever had so much as a hiccup.

by plh903 on Mar 25, 2007 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

5 inning pitcher

being able to only go 5 innings because you waste mountains of pitches trying for strikeouts is kind of a hiccup. i wouldnt say that they made those adjustments last year moreso that they were in the middle of making those adjustments

If you dont have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs....Whitey Herzog

by El Capitan on Mar 25, 2007 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah,

but you said "Reyes' approach" when it was really a deviation from m.o. the first day of ST last year IIRC.

He averaged right at 6 IP/GS in the minors and that dropped off the about 5.5 IP/GS last year.

The issue that's been talked about for a long time at this site is whether his noticeable drop-off in velocity, and decrease in peripherals etc. was caused by Duncan's tinkering with something that wasn't broke. Now, that's obviously debatable, but that's the point of contention.

And striking out batters is never a bad thing. Guys that can translate his ridiculous command, easy power fastball, plus-plus change, curve for strikes, and K-rate to the Major Leagues are called aces. It's not about this guy becoming Jeff Suppan as was well put by Erik upthread, it's about him fulfilling his potential, having the tools, to become a front-of-the-rotation starter.

I know that even Carpenter espouses the Duncan philosophy of pitching to contact and getting GOs, but pitching to contact isn't what makes him so great, or efficient. The numbers that make Carpenter so great are very simply 549 and 132. That's his K/BB ratio.

by plh903 on Mar 25, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good grief

i say this as reyes is getting smacked around lol

If you dont have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs....Whitey Herzog

by El Capitan on Mar 25, 2007 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, they had a bead on him

there for a minute and rattled off a few. Looked like they were guessing right.

by rmerrill on Mar 25, 2007 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

someone watching the game on TV

please tell me how Chris Perez looked.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Mar 25, 2007 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know much about the guy,

but I am watching the sixth inning right now.

First batter: nothing on the gun, throwing hard straight fastballs. Tossed breaking pitch that just spun up and out of the zone. Induced a pop-up on another nice fastball.

Second batter: Missed a spot on a fastball, got on top of his curve for a strike this time, decent drop. Induced a weak pop-up on a fastball down in the zone. Had been living in the upper-half until that point.

Third hitter: Same story with the fastballs, threw single-plane curve that got a grounder to SS.

Wish they had got him on the gun, was throwing hard but relatively straight and the three off-speed pitches were of three different results.

Worked quick, nice quick 1-2-3 inning.

by plh903 on Mar 25, 2007 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the guys

perez faced weren't punks either, brian roberts, freddy bynum, and melvin mora. i was kind of rooting for somebody to get on, because i wanted to see the kid go up against miggy tejada.

by sjoshi on Mar 25, 2007 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bennett

did a nice job of wasting schumaker's awesome one-hop throw to the plate.

"God is back in the National League. Matter of fact, he is staying at my house." -Joaquin Andujar

by SleepyCA on Mar 25, 2007 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Reyes velocity

i'm not sure where all the talk about reyes' velocity being down has come from, everything i've heard and seen so far this spring has his velocity at 91-94 as per usual.

by jojo5492 on Mar 25, 2007 10:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Before and Afters

Maybe it's just me, but while the mechanics look very similar, there seems to be a small difference in arm ANGLE in the before:after view.

But now I have been staring so long I am not sure. Does anyone else see this?

ScoutingBook: Top Baseball Prospects, Closer Watch, more!

by scoutingbook on Mar 26, 2007 7:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I actually think

that the coaches were satisfied with Reyes all year but that he was sent down so that his arbitration clock wouldn't start the same year as Wainwright's. Just a theory but I know that the D-Rays did it with B.J. Upton and probably the Mets with Milledge...just another "conspiracy theory" ;)

by eglasier on Mar 26, 2007 8:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs