337,600 wins

by lboros on Mar 22, 2007 8:36 AM EDT in St. Louis Cardinals News

cards vs fish; carpenter vs dontrelle. it's on the radio; here's the gameday link. you might want to check out alex's diary this morning, too. . . .

over at wsj.com, the Daily Fix is running its annual baseball contest; click the link and look inside the sidebar box at the left of the page. it's a series of 20 questions about the upcoming baseball season --- everything from "who will win each division?" to "how much will run scoring increase / decrease this year compared to last?" the contest is open to everyone; whoever gets the most correct answers wins a fabulous prize.

some guy from england won last year.

i'm going to submit an entry, and i'm asking for the community's help with one of the questions --- #20, which reads: "On what date will Barry Bonds hit career HR No. 756? (Say none if you think he won't.)" post a date in the comments thread below, and i'll aggregate the responses community-projection style --- that'll be my/our answer.

just for reference, bonds hit 26 homers last season in 367 at-bats; he is sitting on 734 as the season begins, or 22 shy of #756. last season, he hit #22 on september 4. so far this spring he has hit 5 dingers in 26 at-bats and is slugging 1.000.

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

on tuesday night, SG posted the results of the 3d annual Diamond Mind projection blowout at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. he ran the 2007 season 4,000 times, using four different sets of projection data (chone, PECOTA, ZIPS, and Diamond Mind) for 1,000 seasons apiece. head over to SG's site for all the details, which are plenty juicy; i'll just post the aggregated results (ie, the average of all 4,000 seasons) for the nl central:

	W	L	GB	RS	RA
st louis	84	78	--	758	721
chicago	84	78	--	808	775
milwaukee	81	81	3	764	768
houston	80	82	4	775	788
cincinnati	73	89	11	749	819
pittsburgh	73	89	11	723	798

actually, stl edged out the cubs by .2 of a game, 84.4 wins to 84.2. in other words, over those 4,000 seasons the cardinals won about 337,600 games, while the cubs won about 336,800. that's pretty tight, boys and girls. a few other items of note:

the cards' worst showing came in the PECOTA projection --- they averaged an 80-82 record, fourth best in the division and 5 games worse than the cubs.
their best showing was in the ZIPS projection --- average record of 90-72, the best not only in the division but in the whole national league, and second only to the yankees in mlb.
they finished no worse than 2d in the national league in runs allowed in any of the four projections. in the aggregate projection (all 4,000 seasons) they averaged the lowest runs-allowed total in baseball, 721.
among the four projections, the cardinals finished no better than 9th (tied) in the national league in runs scored --- and were as low as 15th (PECOTA); in the aggregate, the offense ranks 13th out of 16 national league clubs. for all the worry about the pitching staff, the simulation exercises have consistently indicated that the offense is where our concern ought to lie. the offense could really suck.
the cardinals won their division 1,382 times, or 35 percent of the time --- 3d-best showing in the national league (the phillies and padres won their divisions 39 pct of the time). the cards made the playoffs as either a division winner or wild card 41.6 percent of the time, 4th best showing in the league (behind the mets, padres, and phillies).

those percentages are right in line with the pricing over at tradesports, where the cards are trading at $31.1 to win the division; cubs are at $29.5, milwaukee's at $15.1. the cardinals' over-under is 84.5 wins.

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

and then there's sports illustrated. i'm old enough to remember when the magazine's preseason baseball preview was The Word --- there were no Baseball Prospectuses, bill jameses, online betting sites, or smarty-pants bloggers around to challenge the mighty si's prognostications. now it's just another publication with another set of meaningless preseason picks . . . . for what it's worth, they like stl's chances to win the nl central. john heyman's writeup concludes:

La Russa and Duncan might be facing their toughest assignment in years, but they still have Pujols, more power arms in the rotation than they did a year ago and a defense that spares the pitching staff excess wear and tear. Looks like another October's in the Cards.

Do you like this story?

Comments

Bonds breaks the record...

Thursday, July 19th at Wrigley.

by sdelek on Mar 22, 2007 9:04 AM EDT reply actions

LaRussa arrested

suspicion of DUI. He's in jail, per P-D website.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/laworder/story/B1B868AA7C729BAE862572A600446AEC?Op enDocument

by 10worldchamps on Mar 22, 2007 9:07 AM EDT reply actions

here's a local link

story
w/ bonus mugshot and quote from starter 5

by _pistol_ on Mar 22, 2007 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Not a showstopper.....

Although I am sure I am not alone at wanting his job. In my case, I've wanted to manage the Birds for 30 years.
This can be a great thing for our Country. Perhaps now people will finally make the necessary lifestyle change and not operate transportation while partying.
Tony should do Public Service Announcements, and Community Service time appearances, as necessary, to ensure understanding and compliance to the necessary change in their lives. All the best.

by Yadier on Mar 22, 2007 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Not a showstopper.....

by Yadier on Mar 22, 2007 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

A few thoughts

Not so good news in that Post article, though you never know how it will all playout.
I agree we should be more concerned about the offense. If Edmonds isn't hitting, then the lineup will really have a huge hole in it. So much of the Cardinals offesnive sucess revolves around whether Duncan can step up this season. If he hits like he can (close to last year) then the Cards will have a major offensive upgrade in the outfield, combined with improvement with Kenedy at 2nd. If Duncan doesn't, then well, the team will be back to the same song and dance as last year.

The only upside, is that I think the Cards can more reasonably and quickly get an offensive player through trade to fill/ improve the lineup.

by JMedwick on Mar 22, 2007 9:21 AM EDT reply actions

LaRussa

No matter how it plays out, it's not a good thing. His reputation will take a beating and it should. Thank God he didn't injure anyone or himself.

That said, from a baseball perspective, I don't thin k it will affect the team. This is a veteran group. Guys like Edmonds, Pujols, Eck and Carp are effective rudders for this ship.

by 10worldchamps on Mar 22, 2007 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Strongly agree on point 2

I wonder what Will Clark is up to...

by Jonathan23 on Mar 22, 2007 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

TLR, Duncan, and such...

Well, there's 3 sides to everything - the accuser's story, the accused's story, and then what actually happened somewhere in the middle. My personal opinion is that TLR is a stand up guy, he'll admit he made a dangerous and bad mistake, he'll pay his dues, and he'll say all this once and not ever want to talk about it again, and growl/snarl when reporters keep bringing it up after that initial statement.

On the Duncan/offensive side - he's going to step it up this season, ESPECIALLY if he bats in front of Pujols. What are they going to do, walk him to get to El Hombre? Batting 2nd in the order, he's going to continue to see many, many fastballs, and will only produce on those.

Now, if Edmonds is on the DL and they bat Duncan 4th or 5th.... that might be a different story. But I have to expect they'll try to keep him in that 2-hole as much as possible.

by SmashedAtoms on Mar 22, 2007 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Bonds

He'll break it on Bastille Day, July 14th and then everyone can properly equate their hate for the French with their hate for Bonds. jk, but it would be kind of funny....

by eglasier on Mar 22, 2007 9:41 AM EDT reply actions

hey now....

As a French professor, all I have to say is "Soyez gentil"... :)

by matt reeder on Mar 22, 2007 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

20 Runs

Where could 20 runs be found? Is it upgrading one position? Squeezing a little bit out of everyone?

If it were one position (let's say RF), what kind of a player would you need over Encarnacion to get 20 more runs?

I use 20 since that is splitting the difference between the Cubs projected scoring and the Cards' and turns the Cards into approximately a 90 win team.

I would like to get a sense about how dramatic is a 20 run difference in scoring.

by bdief on Mar 22, 2007 10:00 AM EDT reply actions

Unnamed scout

Did anyone think his responses were a bunch of dribbled hyperboles?

by Jonathan23 on Mar 22, 2007 10:27 AM EDT reply actions

Unnamed scout

Jonathan,

Two of his Cardinals comments are pretty wacky (the Ramirez/Pujols story, and Carpenter), but otherwise, I agreed with a lot of what he said, specifically on Wainwright, Dunn, and Marquis.
The Carlos Lee comment is kind of out there too. I'd say his numbers look good this year, and the LF there will hide his deficiencies, but they're going to eat a lot of that contract. And they really need a speedy cf between those two corner outfielders.

by SheriffBlalock on Mar 22, 2007 10:40 AM EDT reply actions

Haha, I'll agree with the Marquis comment

and I like the logic behind the Carlos Lee signing, even if the dollars and years aren't right.

But what's wrong with being a one dimensional player (in Dunn's case)? There's nothing inherently valuable about having a balanced skill set (if anything, its over-valued because it starts equating tools like speed = power = throwing arm = on base skills). Adam Dunn is two dimensional, and they're the most important dimensions for a left fielder. I don't know how scouts get away with saying these things in today's game.

The Ramirez comment is ridiculous as well, because he's placing value on Ramirez approach. The approach is only worth what it produces. Everyone loves talking about how much Juan Pierre works on his bunting... but then all that work produces is a successful bunt single at a moderate rate, who cares!? I'll take a slow fat guy pounding 180 foot line drives, and not worry about praising him for his preparation (which probably includes eating). I'll take the hitter who can hit the curveball more often and for more damage, regardless if he got the pitcher to throw that pitch by tricking him 5 months earlier.

by Jonathan23 on Mar 22, 2007 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions

There was some strange stuff

I thought the Carpenter comment was strange also -- as if he's the same pitcher he was 5 years ago in Toronto. But the Carlos Lee comment about what a great signing that was really stood out to me. By "hide his deficiencies" he meant that, since LF is only about 47 ft. from home plate at the Juice Box, it's a relatively small field so his deficiencies in LF won't be as noticeable as in a real major-league ballpark.

However, his comment about what a great signing Carlos Lee was stood out b/c it seemed to completely ignore the financial implications of the contract or the likelihood that Lee will need to be a DH in about 2 years. What struck me is that stats guys (from Baseball Prospectus, Hardball Times, etc.) see a bad signing b/c of the $ and the fact that the NL has no DH, while this scout sees a good hitter who'll help the lineup. Presumably he means this year. So while it may help the 'stros this year, in the long-run, it'll hurt and his "good signing" comment seemed to ignore the last 6 years of the deal.

by chuckb on Mar 22, 2007 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I neglected the Wainwright stuff

what was that about him being moved back to the 'pen by May? Wainwright is in the rotation -- permanently. Mark it down! I'd give that comment more respect if it was based on anything he'd seen this spring but there was nothing that he could point to to suggest that Wainwright was pitching poorly as a starter or that Izzy wasn't healthy and wouldn't last. He seems to be basing that on last year.

by chuckb on Mar 22, 2007 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

No Doubt

Not too impressed with that interview.

Sackmann's Cardinals preview appears to be seriously tainted by Nate Silver's subpar jabs at the Cardinals recently.

Another week and a half can't go by quickly enough.

by liam on Mar 22, 2007 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

The part of

Carlos Lee I don't get is that he steals bases. Not a lot, but based on the stereotype of him as your classic lumbering power hitter who loves his steak and potatoes, I always find this surprising. And it makes me question the conventional wisdom about how he's gonna do in the outfield.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 22, 2007 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

sbs

Well, stolen bases don't require speed (see albert) and speed doesn't mean good outfield defense either, but you're right. Most modern defensive metrics don't have him as the butcher he's made out to be.

by Jonathan23 on Mar 22, 2007 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Beyond the boxscore has Cards' team preview up

It's on the front page.
link

by silent_bob on Mar 22, 2007 10:52 AM EDT reply actions

July 23rd...

at home.

Also, Jeff Sackmann has his Cardinal team preview up.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/

Acquire any Established Major League Starter!

by guayzimi on Mar 22, 2007 11:03 AM EDT reply actions

Do these guys even read

what they write? Sackmann says, "Even if everything breaks right for Wainwright and Reyes, the Cardinals still have plenty of holes in the rotation."

Carp + Wain + Reyes = 3 out of 5 slots. And his discussion of Wain & Reyes says they are both projected for ERAs below 4, which he seems to find plausible. So I must assume that "everything breaking right" for them means exactly that. Which to me looks like a rotation with 3 damn solid guys at the top, meaning we'll be in a better position than at least half the teams in MLB, maybe much more than half.

And it leaves 2 questionable slots. Does 2 holes = "plenty"? A couple of paragraphs before that he says picking up Wells was a great move, and then immediately explains that it wasn't a great move, evidently because he believes Wells won't throw a lot of innings. So was it a great move or not?

I think he's starting from a conclusion that our rotation will suck, and then trying to make the facts fit. Bizarre.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 22, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Bonds HR #756

Will come on August 26, my birthday, which will forever put a damper on my annual celebration.

by wildman on Mar 22, 2007 11:26 AM EDT reply actions

Gibby against the best

Hank Aaron struck out 31 times
Ernie Banks 22 times
Clemente 31 times
Willie McCovey 20 times
Willie Stargell 41 times

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 22, 2007 11:57 AM EDT reply actions

I'll be the first to say it

No record for Bonds this year. He finishes the season three short, having his season end with an injury in July.

by Valatan on Mar 22, 2007 12:53 PM EDT reply actions

I'd believe more that he is indicted

and MLB suspends him.

Walk your dog, not Pujols.

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 22, 2007 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

You Remind Me

Of that 80's song - "The King of Wishful Thinking". I'm not as optimistic as you, Val.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on Mar 22, 2007 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

From your typed words.....

....to the ears of the baseball gods.

Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by Futility Infielder on Mar 22, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Springer

Can the injury be when Russ Springer, wearing the birds on the bat, beans Bonds in the noggin??

Best thing Springer did all year in '06

I'm going to my happy place now.

by RosevilleRedbird on Mar 22, 2007 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

TLR Gets a DUI

No kidding, allegedly TLR was passed out in his car at a stoplight. His blood-alcohol level was .93, not that high, but it was enough to send him to La La Land.
I wish Tony good luck, but I hope he has to go through some punishment. Anyone else would have 1 year suspension of DL and about $5000 fine.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on Mar 22, 2007 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

Sorry About the Duplicate post, guys.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on Mar 22, 2007 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Me too

But, as I was sending the initial message I was redirected to a page that told me there was an error and that I could resubmit now. Then I see they are both posted.... Sorry. But, I agree, driving while exhausted is not a good thing. When I was an Executive Officer for an Infantry Basic Training Platoon, during one afternoon during the first weeks of 24 operations, I wrapped my jeep around a bridge on my way back from lunch with my wife. I was sick with the flu, but sheesh. It's dangerous. Now to remedy this type of accident would cause a dramatic change in the way we operate. And, Im not just talking military service. As for operating a motor vehicle impaired due to ingested substances.... STOP!!!!

by Yadier on Mar 22, 2007 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to make too much light of it

but from the facts as I read them, it looks like his crime was more "driving while sleepy" than "driving while intoxicated."

by CardFaninVA on Mar 22, 2007 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Falling Asleep at the Wheel

You're almost as dangerous a driver when driving while that tired as you are from drinking. The fact that he was doing both and then fell asleep with his car in drive makes this a dangerous situation.

He could have easily moved his foot off the brake and started moving while asleep or even just continued driving and not seen a pedestrian or car turning on from a side street due to the impairment from the alcohol and lack of sleep.

The point is that if he was falling asleep at the wheel like that he was in no condition to drive and shouldn't be treated any more leniently than any other person who gets busted for the same reason.

by dontEATnachos on Mar 22, 2007 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

That's true

They're both bad and dangerous decisions. However, one carries a stigma that the other doesn't.

by CardFaninVA on Mar 22, 2007 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

na

more likely about $1000.00 fine and 6 mths suspended. make all the quips you want, yes I know from experience...

by eglasier on Mar 22, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

but for the grace of god...

there go I...
Hey ... Driving drunk or overly tired is a dangerous and serious thing, no doubt.. but as mentioned above.. .93 and he was stopped at the time. It surely could have been worse, and just because he didn't hit anything or anyone, doesn't make it any less of a bad decision...but any and all of us who have ever had a couple of beers or glasses of wine on an empty stomach would be able to draw a .93...so I'm not going to be judging Tony too harshly. He made a mistake and he'll pay for it I'm sure, but after that, it's a dead issue for me.

by Timbo02 on Mar 22, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't mean to nitpick

But I believe you mean .093 blood alcohol content.

The only reason I pointed it out is that I used to do minor radio DJ work at a crappy little station in central MO shortly after high school. I was reading the news report that MO was either thinking about or actually implementing the new drunk driving limit and said it on the air as .8 instead of .08; my trainer gave me quite a bit of guff over that.

If it was actually .93, I would have significantly less respect for Tony for doing such a thing to himself. Hell, he'd be lucky to be alive, nevermind getting into an accident.

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Mar 22, 2007 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Boy,

I'd really respect him then, that would be super-impressive. Hit and run all you want big guy!

Disclaimer: plh903 does not condone having a .93 BAC and getting behind the wheel. Always use a designated driver when you are planning to consume several cases of beer in an hour.

by plh903 on Mar 22, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Heh

I assume by "hit and run all you want," you mean on the ball field.

by baw on Mar 22, 2007 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

.93

.93 would be an impressive amount of alcohol to consume and still be alive. Nevermind the fact that it's medically impossible - he's TLR, damnit! =p

Men of Men...Kings of Kings...pet lover!

Bench Juan Encarnacion!

by STLCardinalsFan on Mar 22, 2007 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

wow

According to Gameday there have been 11 strikeouts today.

by sweet number 5 on Mar 22, 2007 2:16 PM EDT reply actions

LHPs

Is anyone else concerned that for 2 straight days against a left handed pitcher the offense has done essentially nothing?

by bdief on Mar 22, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

Just look at the kind of lineup we'll trot out against lefties when Edmonds is out like he is now.

Eck
Wilson
Pujols
Rolen
Juancion
Taguchi
Molina
Kennedy

Not pretty to say the least.

by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Mar 22, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmmm...

Was it really much different than last year?

by saladdays on Mar 22, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

no, it's not

it's basically the same as last year, and it's got little to do with health. Dunc and Jed were consistently held out against lefties last year; even with Jed healthy, that could happen again this year, and if it does, that's the lineup we'll get. PW is decent if he's just going against lefties; .862 OPS the last three years.

Another reason to keep Marrero as a backup C/OF: the last three years, he's OPSed .958 against lefties in 224 AB. (JRod has only had 40 AB against lefties in the last three years, but had a .901 OPS; what'd he do in the minors?)

by nycbirdo on Mar 22, 2007 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

last 2 offseasons

last year going in they needed arms but ended up staying pat except the ponson deal. The need wasnt as big as this year, but they tried at some names and missed. I wasn't sold on the rotation(before the season) which started strong faltered and finished strong. Im mentioning this cause they didnt really make the rotation stronger and we all grumbled abuout it.

This year they made respectable offers and missed out on several guys again...The issue to me though is the standing pat of the OF. I think most of us are happy about seeing what the young guys have...Is reyes for real or not..We will get to see now...I wasnt overjoyed at the edmonds siging..glad cause i like jimmy but thought it was too much.

Then they sit still and watch guys who they were mentioned to lust after last yr sign for cheap elsewhere(Wilson) and resign preston. Not that C wilson would have made a huge difference but none of us want Pdub in a full season dose, and then you have gooch.

To me it seems alot like last yr when you look at the OF situation its crowded but not with great options...Im holding out for a trade but im guessing like last yr if they do get an OF itd be how they patched the rotation buy getting Weava..

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Mar 22, 2007 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions

oh

and im not trying to be a negative nancy jut making an observation

Kenny is a "dirt" bag?

by punchinjudy on Mar 22, 2007 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh No Tony!

not a early riser, so this news is only a few hours old to me. first off, glad Tony's ok, and no one got hurt. I think thats the most important thing. second this is very serious. it's puts a black eye on Tony and the Cardinals. it gives the orgination a headline that no one wants. after being the most ignored and disrespected world series winner in history, this is not how any of us wanted national attention. so that's the bad news.

the good news if it happend on a day where the Kentucky men's basketball coach quits and goes to coach the u of minnesota team. iowa's coach leaves and goes to new mexico. the sweet 16 starts tonight. duke lost a star player to the nba. a big time trade went down in the nfl where the texans are now shopping carr. and the red sox have found their closer. so this story is not being ignored, but more like being barried for bigger national news the most part. espnews only had Tony's statement and nothing else about it. PIT spent 90seconds on it. sportscenter spent less time on it than PTI, although it was the second story after 10 mintes about KY basketball&tubby smith. and thats it. it is the lead video on espn.com, foxsports.com has it as its 3rd story. even on this blog the diaires had less than 50 comments, and only a handful of comments on this main story thread. so outside of the STL, its not being made a big deal about. hopfully it will go away quickly. i say that because I dont want any negative news out there about the Cardinals. we dont get any love as it is, and the last thing I want is the wwl and others to beat this like a dead horse. yes it is very serious. yes Tony screwed up. but we almost never get any good news in the national media. I just hate seeing this. I hate I hate I hate it.

thankfully Tony came out and said all the right things. the Cards are backing him up as well. my first thought after the shock wore off was fear this might be the thing that makes Tony walk away. hopefully that wont happen. I think he has some very good years left in him, and I hope he spends them in the STL. stltoday.com has some pretty good stories on this. Bernie and Gordons especially. jeff made some very good points about Cards fans leaving Busch III in worse shape during the season and nothing happening to them. Bernie points out how tired Tony is during the spring, and how he usually has no more than a bottle of wine with his dinner guests. I hope everyone gets that. there are a lot out there who have a couple glasses of wine and drive home, and are not nearly as tired as Tony is every night. and nothing ever happens to them.

on a much liter note, can you imagine all the late night comics take on this? I can just hear the senior citizen jokes now. "62 year old man was pulled over for a DUI while he was asleep at the wheel at 12:30am last night while sitting threw two green lights. i wonder how they knew he was drunk? it is after all flordia, and he is an old guy. doesn't this happen all the time?" i dont know, i'm not a joke writer. but if he was joe torre, or was a coach for a team on the east or west coast it would be a much bigger story, and be made more fun of.

I cant stress enough how wrong it is to drink and drive. but this in not even a felony offence. Tony does not need to be hung up by his ankles from the Arch because of this. what he did was very wrong. I hope everyone just lets the court system do its job. and maybe from now on, Tony will limit himself to one glass of wine at dinner, and not stay out so late at night. I hope we all learn too that even if we feel ok to drive, it's always, ALWAYS better to err on the side of caution.

The 2006 St.Louis Cardinals. WORLD CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD. And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Mar 22, 2007 7:38 PM EDT reply actions

wikipedia

already up... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_La_Russa

by I heart eckstein on Mar 22, 2007 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Bond's Homerun, definitive answers

It all depends on how many games you expect he will play and how often he hits them out. Over the past three years he has played 291 games and hit 76 homeruns. That is a rate of 3.83 games per homerun. Since he is currently at 734 homers, he needs 22 to reach 156. That means it would take him 84 games.

If that rate sounds high, then consider over the past two years he has hit 31 homers in 144 games or 4.65 games per homerun. That would mean it takes 102 games.

If the former sounds low, look back to 2004, his last truly health season when he slugged 45 in 147 games, or 3.27 games per homerun. That equates to 72 games.

Now consider Bonds is 42 and last year he only played 130 games. Even going back to 2004 he only played 147 games. If he misses games at an even rate, that will extend his time to 22 homers by 10-20%.

Finally its probably a safe bet he breaks the record at home...

This brings me to my matrix answer. Pick his home run rate, number of games played and whether he is willing to play on the road for a potentially historic day and then pick your date:

Now that all that is written, I'll go with Friday 7/27, 7:35pm in the first inning off the Marlin's Willis.

by Zubin on Mar 22, 2007 11:56 PM EDT reply actions

that is awesome

i'm making that my pick

by lboros on Mar 23, 2007 7:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Challenges

I think they can pull it off, but with the rest of the division tuning up and the Cards pretty much standing pat (or going backwards, depending on how you evaluate the rotation), it's definitely going to be a much tougher challenge for LaRussa and Duncan this year.