community projections V: anthony reyes

by lboros on Feb 28, 2007 8:01 AM EST Comment 81 comments

now this should be interesting . . . . here's anthony's full career line, majors and minors. for whatever it's worth --- i'm not trying to sway anyone's opinion here, just sharing information --- will carroll gave reyes a "green light" in his preseason injury ratings, which corresponds to normal risk. (wainwright's got a yellow light, kip wells a red.)

remember, post your guesstimates in comma-delimited fashion --- no spaces between ###s --- to simplify the data-compilation process. this is saving our compilers lots of time. it's recommended that you not look at other people's projections until after you have posted your own. categories:

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

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my guess

185,166,60,160,28,15,9,4.35

i think reyes is going to pitch very well overall, but he'll get hammered four or five times, which will drive up his era

by lboros on Feb 27, 2007 10:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

if

a 4.35 ERA can net someone a 15-9 record, I'll take that.

by DCGreg on Feb 27, 2007 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

out of curiosity

i checked the lahmann database to see how often that's happened. looking only at the national league, 15 guys in the last decade have won at least 15 games with an era of 4.25 or higher. three of those pitchers played for the cardinals: matt morris in 2004 (15-10, 4.72), pat hentgen in 2000 (15-12, 4.72), and garrett stephenon, also in 2000 (16-9, 4.49).

by lboros on Feb 27, 2007 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was

mainly thinking when I made that quip that if he goes 15-9 with a 4.35 ERA, it probably means this team is scoring a lot of runs.

by DCGreg on Feb 28, 2007 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

175,180,65,155,28,12,9,4.45

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Feb 27, 2007 10:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Flatbill

190,170,67,145,18,13,9.4.10

by JBagKY on Feb 27, 2007 10:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

guess

170,148,54,140,28,14,8,3.95

by tjgila on Feb 27, 2007 10:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

160,142,53,142,27,10,9,4.25

I think its going to be an up and down season. Good & bad starts, not up and down between major/minors.

by Just Rope Ball on Feb 27, 2007 10:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Anthony

IP, H, BB,SO, HR,W, L, ERA
178,171,65,168,25,11,10,4.39

by TenRingsAndCounting on Feb 27, 2007 10:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

crapshoot

i love reyes, but still cant quite trust him

165,141,48,148,31,12,8,4.47
i think everybody expects him to get shelled a few times.. and dominate a few times too

10.27.06..greatest day of my life

by steveo61086 on Feb 27, 2007 11:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes '07

170,164,56,153,24,12,8,4.05

by MdRedbirdFreak on Feb 27, 2007 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Throw 'em in the air...

and see where they fall:

160,153,56,145,26,12,7,3.95

by cardzfanbub on Feb 27, 2007 11:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm probably too optimistic, but here goes.....

IP H BB KO HR W L ERA
192,188,50,178,24,16,9,3.60

by michajo on Feb 27, 2007 11:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

not as good as WW...

181,160,75,156,23,12,9,4.14

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

but still very solid. the work on the new fastball cuts HRs (though still higher than WW's) and allows for 180 IP, but some continued struggle to adjust accounts for slightly higher BB rate. w-l is hurt a bit by lack of run support.

this makes wells our #4, by a fairly significant margin.

by nycbirdo on Feb 27, 2007 11:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

172,153,47,142,16,12,8,76

by Cardinal70 on Feb 27, 2007 11:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

ERA

Something's a little off with your line, Cardinal70, unless your ERA is using the metric system or something.

by DCGreg on Feb 27, 2007 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

uhhh

DIPS says 3.58, so I'm going with 3.76. With that low hit rate, maybe he meant 2.76?!?!

by Jonathan23 on Mar 1, 2007 8:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

170,150,53,143,19,10,10,4.44

by dkh895 on Feb 27, 2007 11:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

175, 160, 65, 165, 24, 16, 9, 3.90

The Phinsider
SBN's Miami Dolphins Blog

by Matty I on Feb 27, 2007 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

space - free version

175,160,65,165,24,16,9,3.90

by azruavatar on Feb 27, 2007 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Anthony Reyes 2007 Season Projection

188,140,48,155,18,14,10,3.89

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

by SethWestern on Feb 27, 2007 11:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

those numbers

actually look like they'd project to a significantly better ERA. WHIP of 1, 3+ K/BB, HR/9 of less than .9? Those are Carpenter numbers, other than Carp's K/BB (which has been 4+ the past three years - SO sick) and Carpenter's lowest WHIP is 1.055.

by nycbirdo on Feb 27, 2007 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Flat brim

I think he's still going to have some trouble getting into the late innings. And I'm not convinced that he's gelled enough with Duncan to be as effective as he might be some day.

180,170,45,160,25,13,10,4.05

by DCGreg on Feb 27, 2007 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I watched him pitch last night

on FSN. I'm a believer. If only he'd stop nibbling and pepper the strike zone up/in or low/away.

172,167,51,142,27,14,9,4.12

by Jonathan23 on Feb 27, 2007 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

reyes

IP H BB KO HR W L ERA
163 174 38 113 25 12 8 4.19

I hope I'm low on innings. I'd feel more secure if I felt the team keeps sending him out there if/when he hits a rough patch, something they have yet to demonstrate.

by mikeoat on Feb 27, 2007 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

comma nazi

163,174,38,113,25,12,8,4.19

by azruavatar on Feb 27, 2007 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Man-love

201, 192, 48, 160, 24, 15, 7, 3.537313433

by RedbirdRay on Feb 27, 2007 12:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

space free zone

201,192,48,160,24,15,7,3.537313433

by azruavatar on Feb 27, 2007 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not as good as Wainwright

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

171,161,51,152,22,14,5,3.97

But I think we'll have three starters with ERA's under 4. Reyes misses a few starts with some minor maladies but still makes around 27 starts. I'm hoping he gets back towards his minor league numbers.

by azruavatar on Feb 27, 2007 1:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just throw the heater

190,167,65,167,26,14,9,4.32

Usually I like to compare the player to the year before when coming up with these predictions. I compared Reyes to Matt Cain of last year. Of course he won't have as many K's but his hits and walks will also be lower. Also I agree with lboros that his ERA will be a bit higher because he will pitch in about 4 "Marquis games".

by stl3bagger on Feb 27, 2007 1:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

here goes

188, 152, 55, 140, 23, 14, 10, 4.05

by mcpawlowicz on Feb 27, 2007 1:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

spaces spaces everywhere

188,152,55,140,23,14,10,4.05

by azruavatar on Feb 27, 2007 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes projection

150,145,50,130,25,8,8,4.45

Don't trust him to get deep into games consistently...

by mcg96 on Feb 27, 2007 1:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A-Rey Projections

185, 170, 60, 172, 17, 14, 9, 3.79

-bwhitt

by bighitbwhitt on Feb 27, 2007 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm out of clever quips

185,170,60,172,17,14,9,3.79

by azruavatar on Feb 27, 2007 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Space: The final frontier

Just import it using comma AND space delimited. That way everyone can break the rules and be happy.

by Jonathan23 on Feb 27, 2007 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, I go low tech excel :o)

I love my excel spreadsheets but they have their programming limitations when it comes to parsing text.

And, don't look down, but the comments loose any kind of delimiter later on.

You can lead a horse to water . . .

by azruavatar on Feb 27, 2007 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Haha

I saw below. What can you do?

by Jonathan23 on Feb 28, 2007 9:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

try this out

180, 195, 56, 120, 22, 13, 8, 4.10

by jeff abs on Feb 27, 2007 2:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

sorry, here's one w/o spaces

180,195,56,120,22,13,8,4.10

by jeff abs on Feb 27, 2007 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i

162,181,65,123,26,14,9,4.11

by JxMetal on Feb 27, 2007 2:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

not so good

Yeah, I'm bitter, the one game I was able to go to last year in STL was Aug 16th.

IP, H, BB, SO, HR, W, L, ERA
165,155,65,150,26,12,11,4.5

30 starts, 1.33 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 (which would be high except he's going to avg 5.5 IP/start). Lots and lots of HR's- he was just under 1 HR/9 at Memphis the last 2 years. He won't be as bad as last year, but it won't improve that much. BB/9 will improve a bit. If he gets a handle on the BB's and HR's he could do much, much better...

"God is back in the National League. Matter of fact, he is staying at my house." -Joaqin Andujar

by SleepyCA on Feb 27, 2007 2:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

165,170,40,160,17,10,10,4.10

by AirForceCardsFan on Feb 27, 2007 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rayus

190,170,50,160,20,13,9,3.6

I'm sipping the juice

by trogdor on Feb 27, 2007 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thatched roof cottages!!!

i have to think 190 IP with a 3.6 gets more than 13 wins, right? cards > astros.

by nycbirdo on Feb 27, 2007 7:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Projection

162,157,60,125,18,11,9,4.43

2006 World Champs! Inconceivable! You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

by BozCardsFanSF on Feb 27, 2007 4:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hope I'm low on the innings...

160,167,68,142,27,12,9,4.15

by jimmye on Feb 27, 2007 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

180,182,75,168,22,14,9,4.48

by sdelek on Feb 27, 2007 4:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

174,166,49,141,22,14,8,3.95

by montalban on Feb 27, 2007 5:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

IP: 184
H: 177
BB: 56
SO: 171
HR: 29
W: 14
L: 12
ERA: 3.92

by Bivouac77 on Feb 27, 2007 5:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

stlfan's projection

IP: 180
H: 173
BB: 43
SO: 120
HR: 27
W: 14
L: 9
ERA: 4.10

stlfan

by stlfan on Feb 27, 2007 5:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Alright --

183,166,68,142,25,12,9,3.95

by chuckb on Feb 27, 2007 6:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

AtReyes

180,160,80,160,22,12,8,4.00

by Harknights on Feb 27, 2007 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

reyes

IP 180, H 169, BB 75, K 140, HR 17, W-L 14-8, ERA 4.28

by endlessticketscom on Feb 27, 2007 7:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

reyes of sunshine..sorta

175 171 68 167 28 11 7 4.27

Future Redbirds

by erik on Feb 27, 2007 9:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

An Reyes 2007 projections

140,150,55,125,20,11,8,4.70

IP, H ,BB, SO,HR,W,L, ERA

by Johnny64 on Feb 27, 2007 10:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

lookout for the longball, flatbill!

192,176,74,164,31,9,9,4.83

by Zubin on Feb 27, 2007 10:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

160,143,55,138,16,12,8,4.05

by blove121 on Feb 28, 2007 10:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

188,190,55,23,13,9,4.27

I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown

by Eckstreem on Feb 28, 2007 10:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Catcher in the Reyes

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

170,160,60,150,27,14,10,4.18

by JonesSoda on Feb 28, 2007 11:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I just started reading that book

well the Rye variety that is. Never read it before and decided that I needed to add some more heady titles to my reading list than the casual sci-fi.

by azruavatar on Feb 28, 2007 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A-Rey.

160,145,70,150,26,12,8,4.10

by AndyB83 on Feb 28, 2007 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes projections

175,160,60,160,34,14,9,4.10

by llcolt on Feb 28, 2007 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

168,159,63,141,29,10,10,4.48

by Stanfan6 on Feb 28, 2007 12:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

stay healthy, kid

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

182,176,64,159,32,13,8,4.31

by DCRedbird on Feb 28, 2007 3:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Flat Hat

165,160,60,180,20,12,9,4.25

by Silent George on Feb 28, 2007 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

Here we go:

175,165,60,140,24,13,10,4.50

by patton044 on Feb 28, 2007 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

the iron(ed) man

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

110,85,40,70,25,11,4,3.75

i'll be responsible for the "he's really good, but has recurring elbow soreness" projection.

by brentonjay on Feb 28, 2007 6:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow, 15 decisions in

just a little over half a season! No wonder he'll have elbow trouble, he'll be pitching 8 innings every time out.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 1, 2007 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

163,160,58,132,28,10,9,4.40

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Feb 28, 2007 9:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

185,177,81,146,27,13,7,4.21

by SheriffBlalock on Mar 1, 2007 11:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

170,156,51,98,20,12,6,3.98

by saladdays on Mar 1, 2007 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

'Tony Reyes

161,152,74,138,24,13,7,3.90

by Pujols Is A God on Mar 1, 2007 6:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

my try

184,175,50,135,21,14,10,3.97

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Mar 1, 2007 6:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Goofy Hat Guy



 IP,  H,BB, SO,HR, W, L, ERA

148,140,52,118,24,13,11,4.35

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 1, 2007 8:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

For the record...

The above "official" prediction is the mean. For the curious, I also have Pessimistic and Optimistic projections:



         IP    H  BB   SO  HR   W   L   ERA

PESS    120  122  47   94  21   8  16  4.72

OPT     176  152  49  122  29  18   7  4.08

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 1, 2007 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My guess

175,75,95,120,28,13,6,3.32

by Valatan on Mar 1, 2007 10:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If Reyes walks more guys than

he gives up hits to, I will eat a baseball.

by azruavatar on Mar 2, 2007 1:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

Did you transpose those two numbers, Valatan?

Either way, that's some serious optimism.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 2, 2007 2:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I did

I was looking at WHIP.

And I'm bullish on Reyes. It's early in the season. I like to be full of hope. I'd just as soon not be super-paranoid at least unitl the team has played a few games and has shown some sinces regarding how they are or are not clicking.

by Valatan on Mar 2, 2007 3:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

Here's hoping you are right and I am wrong.

After looking through the list, it looks like mine is one of the most pessimistic projections in the bunch, especially regarding IP, which surprised me.

My guilt was assuaged somewhat by the fact that Larry's summary table today showed that my projection is remarkably close to the aggregate of all the projection "systems", although my ERA is about 1 standard deviation higher.

But again, maybe he'll end up closer to your projection than mine. That would be pretty sweet.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 2, 2007 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs