community projection IV: wainwright

by lboros on Feb 22, 2007 6:45 AM EST Comment 45 comments

i'm extremely curious to see what results we come up with here. here's adam's full line, majors and minors; note that between 2001 and 2005 he made 27+ starts and tossed 150+ innings four times in five years (excepting only an injury-shortened 2004).

please remember to post your guesstimates in
comma-delimited fashion --- no spaces between ###s --- to simplify the data-compilation process. it's recommended that you not look at other people's projections until after you have posted your own. categories:

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

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ho hum

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

170,164,65,137,23,14,10,4.05

by lboros on Feb 22, 2007 6:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wainer

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

180,180,50,140,20,15,8,3.95

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Feb 22, 2007 7:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cheers indeed

and I thought I was being generous on the Ks. Something tells me I would be terrible at calculating PERA. I'm not certain my peripherals add up at all.

by plh903 on Feb 22, 2007 7:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I readily admit

i have no idea what in the hell i'm doing.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Feb 22, 2007 7:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's 7 K per 9 IP

which is what I went with and what LB went with. It may be a little high but he'll be above 6.5, won't he?

by chuckb on Feb 22, 2007 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pass the kool-aid to the front of the bandwagon

180,165,55,145,20,15,9,3.60

by plh903 on Feb 22, 2007 7:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here we go

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

180,167,60,143.20,15,8,3.80

by redbirdnation on Feb 22, 2007 7:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wagonmaker's Line

180,155,54,150,16,15,7,3.72

by JBagKY on Feb 22, 2007 8:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright

145,155,52,141,11,8,4.28

by Cardinal70 on Feb 22, 2007 9:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

waino

186,183,58,147,22,13-7,4.09

Future Redbirds

by erik on Feb 22, 2007 9:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

i make it wain

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

175,145,40,140,13,10,4.00

by JonesSoda on Feb 22, 2007 9:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wagon

185,175,75,150,19,12,8,4.14

by Harknights on Feb 22, 2007 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

He's gonna be a good one

181,172,65,141,23,13,9,3.90

by chuckb on Feb 22, 2007 9:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

145, 155, 55, 120, 16, 11, 7, 4.60

by Robb on Feb 22, 2007 9:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

plus, he'll hit a grand slam

185,185,55,160,17,13,10,4.35

by DCGreg on Feb 22, 2007 10:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wain

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

162,144,50,153,14,12,6,3.52

To defend:

I calculated ERA from a slightly modified ERC. I removed the .56 subtraction, and I assumed 4.25 BFP/IP and 5 HBP.

by Just Rope Ball on Feb 22, 2007 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wainer

175,165,40,135,18,14,8,3.89

by blove121 on Feb 22, 2007 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Trying to Avoid Cholera on The Oregon Trail

180,178,57,155,19,11,9,4.19

by Fred Head on Feb 22, 2007 10:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

wainwright

186,190,70,144,25,14,13,4.25

by fewgoodcards on Feb 22, 2007 10:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Solid #2 (fingers crossed)

IP, H, BB,SO, HR,W, L,ERA

185,174,59,175,18,15,8,3.94

by TenRingsAndCounting on Feb 22, 2007 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Can he master a third pitch?

IP H BB SO HR W L ERA
183,195,64,142,15,12,10,4.22

by michajo on Feb 22, 2007 11:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ouch

127,132,44,101,15,11,7,4.11

I have this terrible feeling the new workload hits him hard and he gets shut down around the time Mulder comes back in July. His DL stint is justified by management because our fifth starter Thompson/Looper/Franklin/Ankiel is pitching adequately. He comes back in september to the bullpen when the rotation is shaved to four for October.

by Jonathan23 on Feb 22, 2007 12:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

the low number of IP last year

was actually more unusual for AW than a high number. He's been a starter all through the minor leagues over 5 years he averaged 144IP. Toss out the injury season of 2004 and he averaged 164IP. He's used to a heavy load. I hope he sticks in the rotation for the whole year because I'd rather not see him relegated to the bullpen...

by azruavatar on Feb 22, 2007 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ww

141,151,41,121,21,11,11,4.81

Evident The Wash.

by brock on Feb 22, 2007 12:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A-Dub

181,155,59,171,19,15,9,3.59

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

by SethWestern on Feb 22, 2007 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i think i might be an optimist after all...

by SethWestern on Feb 22, 2007 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think we're all

becoming realists right about now. nobody in the dunc or wainer predictions are outlandish.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Feb 22, 2007 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Adam W

160,155,55,130,15,11,10,4.35

by mcg96 on Feb 22, 2007 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright

185,177,57,140,19,14,9,3.88

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Feb 22, 2007 2:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My hypothesis

183,160,61,144,23,13,8,4.19

by stl3bagger on Feb 22, 2007 2:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wagon Ball

175,168,48,148,12,13,6,4.00

by sdelek on Feb 22, 2007 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wainer

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

IP: 171
H: 174
BB: 64
SO: 108
HR: 19
W: 11
L: 8
ERA: 4.34

by Bivouac77 on Feb 22, 2007 3:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
178,171,70,120,21,12,9,4.28

by SheriffBlalock on Feb 22, 2007 3:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright's Line

183,191,56,147,21,14,10,4.34

by AaronB4Mizzou on Feb 22, 2007 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

#1 draft pick

IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
192,208,64,150,19,15,7,3.54

His curve reminds me of carpenter. His fastball is good and his secondary pitches, namely the slider, is good enough to support his curve/fastball combo. He's the real deal, imho; that #2 pitcher we've been looking for. I like him to have a better year than Reyes.

by azruavatar on Feb 22, 2007 4:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs