community projections II: Kip Wells

by lboros on Feb 17, 2007 1:30 AM EST Comment 65 comments

kip wells is a tough guy to project. a 1st-round draft pick in 1998, he was rushed to the majors the following season having made only 11 starts above class A; he essentially learned on the job. by age 25 had become a pretty good big-leaguer; then his health faltered. wells has been battling circulatory problems since 2004, either pitching poorly or sitting on the DL for that entire 3-year period.

here's his career line. take a gander, then project his 2007 performance in the following categories:

innings
hits
walks
strikeouts
homers
wins
losses
era

for ease of compilation, i would appreciate it if you can submit your projections in comma-delimited format --- each number followed by a comma, with no spaces separating the numbers. for example, this

250,225,80,235,25,20,10,3.15

is how you would submit a projection for 250 innings, 225 hits, 80 walks, 235 ks, 25 hrs, a 20-10 record, and a 3.15 era.

i'll leave this thread up through the weekend and report out the numbers either monday or tuesday.

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and once again

i'll go first:

175,175,75,150,24,14,12,4.35

by lboros on Feb 16, 2007 5:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here we go

By the way, go take a look at Chris Carpenter's numbers (http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml) before and after joining Cards. I'm not saying Wells has that kind of stuff, but wouldn't it be awesome if he had a turnaround even 75% as good. If you do look, you will see that Wells and Carp had similar stats before they got hurt. Anyway, here's my prediction for 07:

180,175,75,145,27,13,9,4.65

by patton044 on Feb 16, 2007 5:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also Jason Schmidt

Schmidt's his third closest age-28 comp.

The similarities are remarkable, really. I expect good things of Kip Wells this season. A non-baseball projection: I figure he and Josh Kinney will be hunting partners.

by liam on Feb 16, 2007 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice...

If he has a 50% turnaround as good Carp I will be thrilled. I agree though--I have a weird gut feeling Wells will somehow work out. I'll eat that come april if need be, but I gots a mojo that says Wells will work out. We'll see soon enough.

by rockin redbird on Feb 17, 2007 3:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My guesstimate

Calling it a projection just doesn't seem right.

173,178,67,152,30,12,11,4.50

The Cardinal Curmudgeon

by lawman3842 on Feb 16, 2007 6:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wells projection

170,180,80,120,20,9,10,4.75

Hopefully I prove to be a pessimist...

by mcg96 on Feb 16, 2007 6:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

wells

180,185,77,124,23,10,11,5.02

Evident The Wash.

by brock on Feb 16, 2007 6:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

this guess is uneducated

158.1,148,69,108,15,11,10,4.89

innings
hits
walks
strikeouts
homers
wins
losses
era

by nycbirdo on Feb 16, 2007 6:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

oops, sorry

4.78 era. typo.

by nycbirdo on Feb 16, 2007 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kipper

172,170,72,129,19,12,9,4.50

by MGW on Feb 16, 2007 6:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

wells

160,162,60,108,19,12,10,4.30

by bobeans on Feb 16, 2007 7:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good HR/9, improved BB/9, 30 starts

190,198,69,140,18,16,9,3.85

by liam on Feb 16, 2007 7:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

wow those would be great numbers

I would love to see Kip make 30 starts -- but 30 starts with those numbers...well that would really help stabilize the entire pitching staff.

by azruavatar on Feb 17, 2007 12:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wells

162,150,60,115,15,12,8,4.48

by busch bird on Feb 16, 2007 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This is going to be awful

164,183,76,101,16,6,13,4.98

by JxMetal on Feb 16, 2007 8:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Let's give it a shot

178,185,64,123,18,11,9,4.61

I'd take it!

by chuckb on Feb 16, 2007 9:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

he may be the toughest to predict

170,185,55,110,23,11,10,4.30

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Feb 16, 2007 9:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Typing a comma w/out a space next to it is hard

155,175,50,70,20,8,12,5.20

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Feb 16, 2007 9:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

the only prediction thus far

with an ERA north of 5. Would they let those kind of numbers continue for a full season? Is a 5.20 acceptable for a starter for 155 innings?

Had I looked at the other entries before I made my prediction I think I would have gone away from the group think...the more I look at your numbers -- makes me wonder if I haven't had a sip of the 'Dave Duncan can fix anything koolaid'.

by azruavatar on Feb 17, 2007 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

please ignore my total inability

to read or count the number of entries with ERA's above 5.

I was never very good at counting...

by azruavatar on Feb 17, 2007 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Amazingly,

I think it's got to the ponit in MLB that a 5-ish era is more than servicable from a 4th/5th starter.

Cheers

by Alxfritz on Feb 17, 2007 1:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And 155 IP

may last until right around the trade deadline or the point where Mulder enters the rotation. Ok, he pitches 20 IP out of the bullpen. Still, this is too possible. I hope it's wrong but it wouldn't surprise me.

by chuckb on Feb 17, 2007 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yuck

190,185,72,145,19,15,10,4.55

by sreese on Feb 16, 2007 10:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

C'mon, he has potential

185,180,70,140,16,15,8,4.30

by TICY on Feb 16, 2007 10:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wells

innings
hits
walks
strikeouts
homers
wins
losses
era

175,173,62,150,16,13,7,4.12

by saladdays on Feb 16, 2007 11:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wells

160,175,60,145,20,14,12,4.20

I think he'll start off slow, but by midseason he'll buy into what Duncan is selling and he'll pull it together.

by AirForceCardsFan on Feb 16, 2007 11:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Narveson, Garcia or Hawksworth replaces him

about a third of the way into the season after Kip blows out his shoulder. The rookie performs well so there isn't a real dropoff. I really hope I'm wrong about this too -- I think Kip will be effective as long as he's healthy.

75,90,35,60,8,4,3,4.46

by azruavatar on Feb 17, 2007 12:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

kip

innings
hits
walks
strikeouts
homers
wins
losses
era

160,165,70,120,20,12,10,4.55

by lynx on Feb 17, 2007 12:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wells

160,140,40,75,15,11,12,4.40,

by JonesSoda on Feb 17, 2007 12:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Blind Prediction for Kip Wells 2007:

156,153,73,120,18,10,12,4.26

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Feb 17, 2007 1:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

For the record...

The above "official" prediction is the mean. I also have Pessimistic and Optimistic projections:



         IP    H  BB   SO  HR   W   L   ERA

PESS    120  124  61   94  14   6  13  4.86

OPT     192  184  83  152  21  12   7  3.80

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Feb 17, 2007 1:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

kip...

170,169,64,130,17,13,7,4.20

If he stays healthy, I think he can be a decent 3-4 starter.

by montalban on Feb 17, 2007 2:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kip Wells....ewwww

This is the toughest of all to predict, in my honest opinion

170,192,72,140,19,12,11,4.45

by Matty I on Feb 17, 2007 2:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

All's well that ends...whatever.

140,152,68,111,16,9,11,4.67

by michajo on Feb 17, 2007 8:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wells Done

155,145,63,115,11,13,10,4.35

by Cardinal70 on Feb 17, 2007 10:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Welllllllls

145,155,62,85,15,8,7,4.48

by sdelek on Feb 17, 2007 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

wells

185,180,65,112,21,13,10,4.17

-bwhitt

by bighitbwhitt on Feb 17, 2007 11:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

stay at home and all the flippin' chips Kip!

180, 184, 78, 146, 18, 12, 10, 4.60

Future Redbirds

by erik on Feb 17, 2007 11:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yippy Kippy

190,189,64,128,18,16,9,4.39

by stl3bagger on Feb 17, 2007 11:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The year for the Kipper

180,195,67,145,19,14,9,4.5

by JBagKY on Feb 17, 2007 11:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

wells

198,205,57,136,24,15,8,3.88

by mdarshan on Feb 17, 2007 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

There's some optimism here

so far, 18 projections that have an ERA below 4.50. I hope they're right. If they are, this would be great value from a $4 M SP.

by chuckb on Feb 17, 2007 12:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

the innings are generally high too

i didn't count them up, but roughly 2/3 of these predictions have him at 170 or more innings. that, too, would be great value --- almost no matter what his era is. presumably if he's allowed to throw that many innings, he will have to be at least somewhat effective.

my sense is that, as a community, we may be optimistic on the innings . . . . i put him at 175, which i would lower if i could do it over.

by lboros on Feb 17, 2007 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

there seems to be a feeling

that he's going to ripen under Duncan as a Cardinal... I still scared off by the fact that, despite his injuries being labeled as not chronic in nature, he's pitched 180 IP in 3 of his 8 seasons.

He's a player that for some reason gives me the feeling that he's gonna spend significant time on the DL. It's still a good 4M dollar risk but it's a risk nonetheless.

by azruavatar on Feb 17, 2007 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I've got him at 178 IP which is basically a full season's worth. Jeff Suppan never gave the Cards 200 IP. I think if we got 170 IP or more w/ an ERA of 4.50 or better, we would consider that a success. And so would the Cards.

by chuckb on Feb 17, 2007 8:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Projections for Kip...

innings
hits
walks
strikeouts
homers
wins
losses
era

190, 205, 70, 130, 18, 12, 10, 4.10

by AndyB83 on Feb 17, 2007 12:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

as bad a guess as any

innings
hits
walks
strikeouts
homers
wins
losses
era

165, 155, 65, 112, 16, 10, 8, 4.75

by mcpawlowicz on Feb 17, 2007 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

wells

I just get the feeling that while he won't be a complete train wreck (a la Marquis last year) he's not going to be much good either. Then again, I had the same feeling when we first signed Suppan, and while he's no Carpenter that turned out a pleasant surprise.

by mcpawlowicz on Feb 17, 2007 2:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

wells

187, 190, 82, 131, 25, 15-8, 3.82

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Feb 17, 2007 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kipper

180, 175, 80, 120, 23, 14, 9, 4.45

by Zubin on Feb 17, 2007 5:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

so-so

175,170,70,110,20,11,11,4.60

by DCGreg on Feb 17, 2007 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well, what the heck...

182,172,70,122,21,12,10,4.48

"Slide DiMaggio, slide!" "Hey, my name isn't DiMaggio, my name is mm..mmmm...mmm....mud."

by cmat on Feb 17, 2007 9:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No clue

170,170,60,130,20,12,10,4.15

by plh903 on Feb 18, 2007 8:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

K Wells proj 2007

163,168,80,120,20,11,11,4.40

High? Low? Average? Or maybe Ponsonnical? I guess average, which would be very good indeed.

by Johnny64 on Feb 18, 2007 11:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wells Projection

189,184,79,128,20,13,8,3.71

by Fred Head on Feb 18, 2007 6:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Captain Kip

185,175,72,128,21,14,8,4.15

"Enamored" takes the preposition "of," not "with."

by MKDCardinal on Feb 18, 2007 7:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kip Wells

150,135,60,90,20,10,5,4.25

by Just Rope Ball on Feb 18, 2007 8:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kipper

171,182,68,111,23,14,11,4.65

Hits go up, thanks to some sinker-esque pitch Duncan forces on Wells.

by Jonathan23 on Feb 19, 2007 12:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here goes

180 Innings
195 Hits
62 Walks
110 Strikeouts
25 Homers
15 Wins
10 Losses
4.83 ERA

More hits and homers early in the season, becomes much better during the second half. Pitch to contact brings down the walks and strikeouts, but the hits go up. Lots of double play balls erase some of those hits.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Feb 19, 2007 10:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs