rapid risers
by lboros on Dec 27, 2007 10:04 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Printper yesterday's paper, colby rasmus has a clean shot at claiming the starting job in centerfield. mozeliak was careful to issue a qualifier --- "The club doesn't need him to be in the opening day lineup" --- but he acknowledged that "some time this year he's going to be a contributing member of this club." i.e., if he does go to triple A the stay might be a short one. this is hardly a radical idea --- a number of cardinal hitters of recent note either bypassed triple A altogether or spent just a few weeks there. so i thought i'd compare their minor-league performance to rasmus's, and then check how those players fared as big-league rookies.
none of them, by the way, had a resume as impressive as rasmus's. colby hit .275 / .381 / .551 last year in 472 at-bats, leading led all double A players in homers (29) and ranking 3d in ops (.932). not bad for a 20-year-old. he heads into this season as a consensus top-10 prospect; baseball america hasn't released its top 100 yet, but everybody else has him ranked in the #5 to #8 range. with that, let's head to the list of precedents (which is in no way meant to be comprehensive):
yadi got called up on june 3, a few weeks shy of his 22d birthday, when mike matheny hit the 15-day dl; he made most of the starts during matheny's absence, impressed with his defense and hit enough singles (.229 / .349 / .257) to stick as the backup when mike returned. his final rookie line: .267 / .329 / .356 in 135 at-bats.
hector luna, 2004. age: 24 AAA: n/a AA: 462 ab, .297 / .363 / .359 BA rank: nr
luna was a rule V draftee, much older than rasmus and not really comparable; his experience is more applicable to brian barton's. but he's listed here because he leapfrogged triple A and lasted a season in the big leagues (on a 105-win team no less), hitting .249 / .304 / .364 in 173 at-bats.
albert pujols, 2001. age: 21 AAA: 14 ab AA: n/a BA rank: 42
in essence, he went directly from low A to the majors. conveniently enough, he was 20 years old (same age as rasmus last year) for his only season in the minors; compare the two:
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| pujols 00 | 490 | 74 | 154 | 41 | 7 | 19 | 96 | .314 | .373 | .543 | ||
| rasmus 07 | 472 | 93 | 130 | 37 | 3 | 29 | 72 | .275 | .381 | .551 |
again, albert's line was mostly compiled in low A, two levels below colby's line from last year. don't get me wrong here; there's only one pujols. but if pujols could jump directly from A ball to the all-star team, then surely rasmus has a chance to be an above-average big-league centerfielder in 2008.
jd drew, 1999. age: 23 AAA: 79 at-bats, .316 / .465 / .519 AA: 67 at-bats, .328 / .438 / .627 BA rank: 1
drew went straight to double A after signing in 1998 and was in the majors by the end of that year; he was already 22 years old at the time and had spent 3 years at florida state and parts of 2 seasons in the unaffiliated northern league. drew opened the 1999 season in st louis but got sent down on may 15 despite a perfectly respectable .230 / .337 / .459 line. he got in another 87 at-bats at triple A, returned to st louis on june 30, and hit .245 / .340 / .415 the rest of the way.
willie mcgee, 1982. age: 23 AAA: 55 at-bats, .291 / .316 / .455; AA: 611 at-bats, .308 / .356 / .419 BA rank: n/a
blocked in the yankee farm system, mcgee spent two full seasons at double A and was 23 years old when the cards called him up in early may 1982. his first big-league at-bat was an embarrassment, but mcgee settled in and batted .296 for the cardinals in a season that culminated with a world championship.
now, those are just some guys who skipped (or glossed over) triple A and broke in with the cardinals. a number of other prominent st louis players followed the same path while breaking in other organizations. to wit:
edgar got a chance just a month into the season when the marlins' incumbent ss, kurt abbott, went onto the dl; he hit .248 in 32 games and got sent back down. recalled after the all-star break, he batted .334 with 16 steals in the 2d half and ended up second in the rookie-of-the-year voting.
scott rolen, 1996. age: 21 AAA: 168 ab, .274 / .378 / .411 AA: 306 ab, .343 / .421 / .556 BA rank: 27
scottie spent all of 1994 and most of 1995 in class A; he got to double A in late 1995, stayed there for half of 1996, played 45 games at triple A and spent september with the phillies. he won the rookie of the year award in 1997.
ron gant, 1988. age: 23 AAA: 45 ab AA: 527 ab, .247 / .321 / .389
gant came up as a second baseman; after a moderately successful trial with the braves in september 1987, he opened the 1988 season at triple A but got recalled after a dozen games and spent the rest of the year in atlanta, hitting .259 / .317 / .439 with 19 homers. he finished 4th in the rookie of the year polling.
ozzie smith, 1978. age: 23. A: 287 ab, .303 / .392 / .362
ozzie signed out of cal poly in 1977 and spent the rest of that summer at walla walla, washington. the next spring he so impressed with the glove that the padres decided to shift ss bill almon to 3b. ozzie held his own at the plate, hitting .258 with 40 steals, and finished second in the roy voting as the padres enjoyed their first season above .500.
to avoid any misunderstanding: i'm not advocating here. i'm not citing these examples to make a case that rasmus should skip triple A and jump straight to the big leagues. i undertook the exercise out of curiosity, to see what type of track record the organization has with hitters who possess little or no triple A experience. these examples are fairly mixed and don't prove anything; many of the guys on the above list struggled early (e.g., drew and renteria) or got their feet wet in very limited roles (e.g., molina and luna). but some of them did succeed right away; there's ample precedent for it. check back in a year and we'll see whether, and where, rasmus belongs on this list.
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Top 10 prospects
- Jay Bruce, of, Reds
- Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
- Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
- Evan Longoria, 3b, Rays
- Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers
- Mike Moustakas, ss, Royals
- Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
- Cameron Maybin, of, Marlins
- Travis Snider, of, Blue Jays
- Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
by MrPlow on Dec 27, 2007 10:28 AM EST reply actions
porcello
lesser known site projectprospect.com has rasmus #2. they are very high on colby.
Mike Moustakas
correct
Regarding some other guys whose names came up, he had McCutcheon at #27; Weiters at #15; David Price at #12...
by MrPlow on Dec 27, 2007 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
Is LaRoche no longer considered a prospect
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
still a prospect...
by MrPlow on Dec 27, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm
ZiPs projects Rolen and LaRoche as follows:
Player AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
LaRoche .256 .343 .431 130 441 53 113 24 1 17 60 56 76 5 4
Rolen .255 .331 .397 106 380 56 97 25 1 9 55 40 52 3 2
I wonder which would have a better year if LaRoche were given the 3B job in LA.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Rasmus on the big club
playing time
Great comparison, LB
And it's interesting to see Colby's numbers vis-a-vis Albert's at the same age. I wonder how the Midwest League compares to the Texas League in its affect on hitters. I realize that Rasmus was playing against older pitchers and better competition but my understanding is that the Texas League is also much more of a hitters' league.
Actually
Actually in 490 minor league AB's Albert Pujols had 46 BB vs. 47 SO, that is an amazing 1:1 ratio that is ideal.
In 967 minor league AB's Colby has 122 BB vs. 198 SO.
That is not close to Albert Pujols.
Albert has never been a strikeout hitter.
Why not look at production? In terms of OPS, Sir Albert's was .916 in one year of low/high A ball(plus 15 PA in AAA) vs. Rasmus' .881 in roughly 2.5 seasons at A/A+/AA.
That IS pretty close to a future hall of famer.
Taking a walk---not K/BB ratio
And his point (which you made) is right on: Rasmus' minor-league walk rate is about 33% higher than Pujols'...
Whether or not he strikes out more is irrelevant to this issue...
Rasmus
Albert's a better contact hitter and has put up an inner-circle HLF start to his career. No one is saying that Rasmus will do that.
I think
He was saying that Rasmus is good at walking. He threw in Alberts name and it confused me.
Albert doesn't walk much for a few reasons, 1. He does not swing and miss very often, therefore he puts a lot of balls in play. 2. He has tremendous plate coverage, and he can hit balls most guys can't even get to.
Read my post again
True
I just found it odd how you put Albert into the equation by saying Colby walks more than him. Albert is superior hitter who can hit a lot of pitches therefor puts balls in play more often be it a ball or a strike which decreases his chance of walking. It is nice that a guy can walk but it is not a stat you want to hang your hat on. I would rather have a guy who puts the ball in play more often. If you are going to bring up walks then you have to look at K's and it would be nice for Colby to try to get the K's down a bit.
he brought up albert
rasmus does take more walks than pujols did at the same age --- that's simply a fact. nobody is suggesting that this means he's a better hitter than albert. it's simply a means of trying to characterize the type of hitter rasmus is.
Look at my post above
Its all about production - Albert may put the ball in play more, but he also grounds into a significant amount of double plays when he uses his "plate coverage" to reach and yank an outside pitch.
Jim Edmonds walked over 100 times in 2000 and 2004. Both season totals are more than Pujols has EVER walked in a season. Were you also complaining about Edmonds in 2004 when he racked up .301/.418/.643 despite striking out 150 times?
It's the ability to take walks that keeps a player productive through the slumps. That's why Edmonds remained productive, and thats why we think Rasmus will do the same.
Edit:
Jimmy
I was always amazed how Jimmy put up such great numbers despite striking out so much. I hope Colby can do what Jimmy did. I guess that is why Jimmy fell so fast too, he was really an all or nothing guy and that approach at the plate caught up to him when he was a bit slower and battling injuries.
But I hear ya there is a such thing as being effective despite high K totals. Albert is really an oddity and the high strike out guys are the norm now.
Strikeouts are basically
Now, that isn't to say that putting the ball in play doesn't have its benefits. Ryan Howard will never hit for a high average because he can't sustain an on-contact batting average of .470 or whatever.
But you are better off saying that you like high batting average players than high strikeout players. And I'm not quibbling with your preference in terms of type of player or style of play, we all have those.
It just shouldn't be surprising that high-K guys generate lots of runs if they have a good walk-rate and slugging percentage. That is all that basically matters in very general terms. Jimmy had an excellent approach and excellent power. He also consistently hit for a decent average. Shouldn't be too surprising that he had an astonishing peak.
Better off
Don't get me wrong
However I don't think he will offensively compare to Albert. He is obviously more of a swing and miss guy than Albert. I would say Albert had a lot better plate discipline at the same point in their minor league careers.
This is why Rasmus is doomed in St. Louis...
He'll be another Ray Lankford.
Edmonds struck out alot
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
well
Nice list
by raisin @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 27, 2007 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
interesting list
Drew and Ankiel 1-2. Hutchinson and Adam Kennedy in the top 100 and Pablo Osuna and Braden Looper were there for the Marlins-shortly after the trade.
Of course we know how each guy has panned out but that was basically six guys out of the top 100 in 1999. Not bad.
Not bad indeed. But maybe Osuna
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 27, 2007 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
oh
Awesome list
Funny how some guys hang around these lists for 3 years or more.
Wow, the Cardinals ruined a lot of pitchers arms in the minors during the 90's.
The Cardinals' farm system has been so week this decade.
Ankiel, Drew, Hutchinson...guys like this were all drafted out of slot and overpaid with Major League contracts at the hands of Boras. The top 10 in any year on these lists is littered with guys who were paid over "suggested slot" for the draft.
These lists are often skewed by major league opportunity factor. For example, a 1B prospect in the Cards organization will be rated lower than an inferior prospect in another organization that doesn't have El Hombre manning the position for the next several years.
We should consider drafting 1B
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Unless he has a monster spring
Still it is nice to know it has happened before.
I don't understand
I thought the whole purpose of the minor league system was to "try out" your talent in a place it doesn't matter if they win or not. That's what the Brewers did, they let all their young talent develop at the major league level because they were going to be losers anyway. Nobody is in centerfield on a non contending team so logic would dictate 500 PAs at the major league level will be better then 500 PAs at AAA.
Another Angle
AAA is no longer a necessary step in player development. It has evolved into veteran depth players waiting for an injury to their big league club. AA is where the best prospects are usually playing. The level of play between AA and AAA is pretty similar, just the ages are different.
Yes, that was part of my thought too
I think that you're extrapolating too far
I won't disagree that AAA is used to stockpile a lot of fringe MLB players but there's still a separation between AA and AAA. Even if we assume that the best prospects are at AA (which I think is dubious without some kind of validation) you still have a host of players in AA that can't cut AAA. You're looking at the distribution of 5% (top prospects) of the talent and assuming that the other 95% is distributed in the same way. I think that's an incorrect assumption.
I'm pretty certain that MLEs still treat AAA as the more difficult league.
They do
There are tons of top prospects at AAA at any time as well. This combination would certainly seem to make it the harder league.
Didn't Crash Davis say it's
Rasmus to the Olympics?
Derrick, Thanks for the nice piece on Rasmus. But I am surprised that you didn't mention that if he makes the big club out of spring training he would jeopardize his chance to go to the Olympics. Even if he has a hot spring, I think that tlr would like to see Rasmus start the year in Memphis, get to play in the Olympics, and join the club thereafter.
Even though we may be desperate for a lead-off hitter, I don't think the 2008 season will be determined by that alone, and they will think that Colby deserves the chance to play for the national team. We should all be excited for his opportunity, and would've thought you find that as big a story as his chance of the making the club out of spring training.
His reply:
Tim, I thought a lot about mentioning that, but thought there will be plenty of time at spring training to bring up that subject. The specifics of this story was to introduce Rasmus as the possible 2008 center fielder and discuss if he can make the leap. At spring training, one of the questions he'll be asked is about the Olympics and we'll discuss it there.
I also plan to mention it in a blog entry that gives details beyond the story ...
Thanks for writing, Derrick
LB didn't mention the Olympics either, and I'm sure many readers here would think it is ridiculous to allow non professional tournaments to interfere or expose players to injury risk etc. But a career is a long thing, and Olympics are a once in a lifetime chance. The Cardinal's 2008 season will not hinge on Colby starting at Busch in April. He deserves the chance, and I think he'll be better for it.
by Birds on the Bat on Dec 27, 2007 12:27 PM EST reply actions
Money
by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Dec 27, 2007 12:36 PM EST reply actions
If in 6 years
- Chris Carpenter will be off the books
- The Cardinals carried 3 superstar contracts (Rolen, Pujols, Edmonds) for years, they can do it again.
I think he can spring for the extra half year.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
If the Cardinals
As it is, two months or something in AAA delays his free agency until after 2014 instead of 2013. That's a big deal and not worth it in a punt year.
If Rasmus
</dennis green>, he'll be signed to an extension long before his sixth year and this will become a moot point.
Then tack it on
One arbitration year is kind of a drop in the bucket, but if they start him with the big club, it'll just be another mark on my "I'm not sure these guys know what they're doing" list.
I guess
Plus he is such a unique talent that service clock should never be an issue; he's the best CF the cards have (barring a miracle) going into opening day. In the words of the Bad News Bears Take Japan "LET HIM PLAY!!"
Agreed
I'm not saying he couldn't make the jump, but has it ever hurt someone's progress to play in AAA for half a season?
I doubt it.
by plaz on Dec 27, 2007 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
for the long-term good of the team
Let us not forget the greatest and most tortured
Junior, 1989. age: 19 AA: 61 at-bats, .279 / .353 / .492 A: 401 at-bats, .326 / .438/ .590 BA rank: 1
Junior was a transcendent athlete. He played football and baseball in high school. Spent his age 17 season in A- and tried to kill himself on an aspirin overdose. The next season, he came out in A+ and put up .338 / .431 / .575 and made the jump from a late season move up AA to being a non-roster invitee in Spring Training that made the big league club.
Griffey's rookie year, he jumped out to a 1st half of .279 / .343 / .472 with 13 HRs and 38 RBIs, but broke his finger in his right hand and was slowed to .242 / .308 / .344 and 3 HRs in the 2nd half. In fact, at the end of August, he stood at .286 / .344 / .457 that season only putting up a horrendous September.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 1:33 PM EST reply actions
Hmm...
Lets say Griff had stayed healthy...Imagine the drama around a 2-man Hank Aaron chase between Bonds and KGJr. Two mega-talented formerly 5-tool players, sons of major leaguers, one believed to be clean and the other, well, you know. ESPN would be practically crying over that one I think.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 27, 2007 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Getting Hurt
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 27, 2007 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
He almost made it through the 2007
Griffey
That they do
one of
Great post LB...as always...
by TommyBruno on Dec 27, 2007 1:53 PM EST reply actions
Rasmus #4
by TommyBruno on Dec 27, 2007 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yadi
Regardless what Yadi does...
by TommyBruno on Dec 27, 2007 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
i for one think he could handle it
i think if he does play the year in the MLB, i'd safely predict something like a .250/.350/.435 type of line for him, which if he can play a good CF, and i believe he can, then he'd be an asset. i would guess he that unless he has a red hot camp, he'll be in aaa for a couple of months or so first. i mean, pujols was going to start in AAA if bonilla hadn't got injured late in spring training.
Zips
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Rasmus .245 .329 .419 121 425 46 104 23 3 15 50 46 90 14 5
Ankiel .241 .285 .458 122 448 46 108 18 2 25 77 27 105 2 2
Skippy .272 .314 .370 132 397 45 108 20 2 5 33 23 57 4 3
Luddy .262 .330 .476 130 412 48 108 26 1 20 64 37 108 2 3Zips didn't have Barton up for projections (for the Indians that is).
Of course, in fewer at-bats, Zips had Edmonds as a pretty good option (compared to all the others) in centerfield for 2008.
Bill James projects like this:
Player G AB H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB CS AVG
Rasmus 141 490 127 63 38 2 24 85 66 64 102 20 5 .259
Ankiel 131 456 117 67 19 2 29 67 94 29 97 4 2 .257
Skippy 70 130 37 27 7 1 2 16 11 9 16 2 1 .285
Ludwick 89 235 62 36 15 0 11 35 40 20 58 2 2 .264
Looks like Colby would hold his own against the centerfielders we will potentially put out there.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
not that this means much
they both said exactly what the post said yesterday & what LB said today. the kid more than lives up to the hype. his glove is ready right now to be a star CF. but his bat could use some more work.
i dont know folks. i'd like to believe every one, i really would. but until i see with my own eyes colby tearing it up in Busch, i'm still going to have my reservations about the kid. i've see this far act too many times. cant miss, franchise's #1 prospect dominantes the minors, yet when he hits the big leagues he falls flat on his face.
call me a pessimist if you will. but i'd rather say i'm living up to my mizzou roots. they dont call it the "show me state" for nothing. i really hope colby lives up to the hype. trust me folks i do. but until i see him play with my own eyes, i'm just going keep my expectations low.
Mo quote
I'm calling BS on this one.
This team still has no leadoff hitter. Tony has said that it isn't fair to Duncan/Ankiel to bat them cleanup behind Albert and that makes Rolen more valuable there. I don't agree with that (I think Rolen is better as the #5 hitter).
Anyways, Colby has had his fair share of ABs as a leadoff hitter and has done particularly well. Having Colby on the Opening Day roster does a lot for this team.
H Lineup POS
L Rasmus CF
L Duncan/Ankiel LF/RF
R Pujols 1B
L Ankiel/Duncan LF/RF
R Rolen 3B
R Molina C
L Kennedy 2B
S Pitcher P
S Izturis/R Ryan SS
Against LHP, Tony could use Ludwick for Duncan to get him into the lineup.
The team needs a leadoff hitter and Cezar isn't it. Ryan MIGHT be it, but he showed last year that he is quite valuable hitting in the #9 spot.
Above all, adding Rasmus makes Rick Ankiel/Chris Duncan (either) more expendible.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 3:55 PM EST reply actions
I've convinced myself
Only presumption, not based in fact, your results may vary.
That would be a lineup I could watch
The real question is whether Rolen puts in enough to build his trade value... Here's hoping he is the next Mike Lowell, building value such that we can trade him for some decent prospects. Next would be trading the OF that steps up, whether it be Ankiel or Duncan next year. We'll see.
The other area where we could deal from strength is if we could get Ryan Franklin, Izzy, and Russ off to decent enough starts that we could get something in return for each of them. 2008 is all about building for the future, but this team should be fun to watch.
agreed
No one said
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 28, 2007 1:04 AM EST up reply actions
Then stop talking
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