rapid risers

by lboros on Dec 27, 2007 10:04 AM EST in News Comment 75 comments

per yesterday's paper, colby rasmus has a clean shot at claiming the starting job in centerfield. mozeliak was careful to issue a qualifier --- "The club doesn't need him to be in the opening day lineup" --- but he acknowledged that "some time this year he's going to be a contributing member of this club." i.e., if he does go to triple A the stay might be a short one. this is hardly a radical idea --- a number of cardinal hitters of recent note either bypassed triple A altogether or spent just a few weeks there. so i thought i'd compare their minor-league performance to rasmus's, and then check how those players fared as big-league rookies.

none of them, by the way, had a resume as impressive as rasmus's. colby hit .275 / .381 / .551 last year in 472 at-bats, leading led all double A players in homers (29) and ranking 3d in ops (.932). not bad for a 20-year-old. he heads into this season as a consensus top-10 prospect; baseball america hasn't released its top 100 yet, but everybody else has him ranked in the #5 to #8 range. with that, let's head to the list of precedents (which is in no way meant to be comprehensive):

yadier molina, 2004. age: 21 AAA: 129 ab, .302 / .384 / .372 AA: 364 ab, .275 / .321 / .332 BA rank: nr
yadi got called up on june 3, a few weeks shy of his 22d birthday, when mike matheny hit the 15-day dl; he made most of the starts during matheny's absence, impressed with his defense and hit enough singles (.229 / .349 / .257) to stick as the backup when mike returned. his final rookie line: .267 / .329 / .356 in 135 at-bats.

hector luna, 2004. age: 24 AAA: n/a AA: 462 ab, .297 / .363 / .359 BA rank: nr
luna was a rule V draftee, much older than rasmus and not really comparable; his experience is more applicable to brian barton's. but he's listed here because he leapfrogged triple A and lasted a season in the big leagues (on a 105-win team no less), hitting .249 / .304 / .364 in 173 at-bats.

albert pujols, 2001. age: 21 AAA: 14 ab AA: n/a BA rank: 42
in essence, he went directly from low A to the majors. conveniently enough, he was 20 years old (same age as rasmus last year) for his only season in the minors; compare the two:

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
pujols 00	490	74	154	41	7	19	96	.314	.373	.543
rasmus 07	472	93	130	37	3	29	72	.275	.381	.551

again, albert's line was mostly compiled in low A, two levels below colby's line from last year. don't get me wrong here; there's only one pujols. but if pujols could jump directly from A ball to the all-star team, then surely rasmus has a chance to be an above-average big-league centerfielder in 2008.

jd drew, 1999. age: 23 AAA: 79 at-bats, .316 / .465 / .519 AA: 67 at-bats, .328 / .438 / .627 BA rank: 1
drew went straight to double A after signing in 1998 and was in the majors by the end of that year; he was already 22 years old at the time and had spent 3 years at florida state and parts of 2 seasons in the unaffiliated northern league. drew opened the 1999 season in st louis but got sent down on may 15 despite a perfectly respectable .230 / .337 / .459 line. he got in another 87 at-bats at triple A, returned to st louis on june 30, and hit .245 / .340 / .415 the rest of the way.

willie mcgee, 1982. age: 23 AAA: 55 at-bats, .291 / .316 / .455; AA: 611 at-bats, .308 / .356 / .419 BA rank: n/a
blocked in the yankee farm system, mcgee spent two full seasons at double A and was 23 years old when the cards called him up in early may 1982. his first big-league at-bat was an embarrassment, but mcgee settled in and batted .296 for the cardinals in a season that culminated with a world championship.

now, those are just some guys who skipped (or glossed over) triple A and broke in with the cardinals. a number of other prominent st louis players followed the same path while breaking in other organizations. to wit:

edgar renteria, 1996. age: 20 AAA: 132 ab, .280 / .326 / .386 AA: 508 ab, .289 / .331 / .388 BA rank: 33
edgar got a chance just a month into the season when the marlins' incumbent ss, kurt abbott, went onto the dl; he hit .248 in 32 games and got sent back down. recalled after the all-star break, he batted .334 with 16 steals in the 2d half and ended up second in the rookie-of-the-year voting.

scott rolen, 1996. age: 21 AAA: 168 ab, .274 / .378 / .411 AA: 306 ab, .343 / .421 / .556 BA rank: 27
scottie spent all of 1994 and most of 1995 in class A; he got to double A in late 1995, stayed there for half of 1996, played 45 games at triple A and spent september with the phillies. he won the rookie of the year award in 1997.

ron gant, 1988. age: 23 AAA: 45 ab AA: 527 ab, .247 / .321 / .389
gant came up as a second baseman; after a moderately successful trial with the braves in september 1987, he opened the 1988 season at triple A but got recalled after a dozen games and spent the rest of the year in atlanta, hitting .259 / .317 / .439 with 19 homers. he finished 4th in the rookie of the year polling.

ozzie smith, 1978. age: 23. A: 287 ab, .303 / .392 / .362
ozzie signed out of cal poly in 1977 and spent the rest of that summer at walla walla, washington. the next spring he so impressed with the glove that the padres decided to shift ss bill almon to 3b. ozzie held his own at the plate, hitting .258 with 40 steals, and finished second in the roy voting as the padres enjoyed their first season above .500.

let's take a little stock here. for most of two years (2002-03), four of the cardinal starters (pujols, rolen, renteria, drew) had just a handful of triple A at-bats apiece; three of the current starters (pujols, rolen, molina) fall into that category. so rasmus would hardly be breaking new ground if he should join the lineup on opening day or shortly thereafter. another observation: the common thread that seems to unite all these examples is defense. aside from gant, every one of these guys could play his position. yesterday's article in the post alludes to that element; indeed, more than one scout believes rasmus' glove is more fully evolved than his bat.

to avoid any misunderstanding: i'm not advocating here. i'm not citing these examples to make a case that rasmus should skip triple A and jump straight to the big leagues. i undertook the exercise out of curiosity, to see what type of track record the organization has with hitters who possess little or no triple A experience. these examples are fairly mixed and don't prove anything; many of the guys on the above list struggled early (e.g., drew and renteria) or got their feet wet in very limited roles (e.g., molina and luna). but some of them did succeed right away; there's ample precedent for it. check back in a year and we'll see whether, and where, rasmus belongs on this list.

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Top 10 prospects

Jim Callis/BA had a chat yesterday at ESPN. His top 10 is:

Jay Bruce, of, Reds
Clay Buchholz, rhp, Red Sox
Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Yankees
Evan Longoria, 3b, Rays
Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Dodgers
Mike Moustakas, ss, Royals
Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
Cameron Maybin, of, Marlins
Travis Snider, of, Blue Jays
Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds

by MrPlow on Dec 27, 2007 10:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

porcello

i heard he had porcello at #13. its a lofty ranking for a high school pitcher that hasnt made a start professionally. still, i cant help but think the cardinals rebuilding project would go a little smoother with porcello.

lesser known site projectprospect.com has rasmus #2. they are very high on colby.

by dmb60614 on Dec 27, 2007 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Moustakas

Now that is a big league name if I ever heard one!

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Dec 27, 2007 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

correct

callis did state he has porcello at #13. in a follow-up porcello question, he opined Porcello is "the best high school pitcher since Josh Beckett. Pitchers are never a sure thing, but Porcello has everything he needs to be a No. 1."

Regarding some other guys whose names came up, he had McCutcheon at #27; Weiters at #15; David Price at #12...

by MrPlow on Dec 27, 2007 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is LaRoche no longer considered a prospect

or has he fallen that much?

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

still a prospect...

he had 93 abs last season, less than the 130 abs MLB and BA (according to the chat) use as a cutoff. LaRoche didn't come up in the course of the chat as I recall, so I don't know where he placed.

by MrPlow on Dec 27, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

very interesting.

ZiPs projects Rolen and LaRoche as follows:
Player AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS LaRoche .256 .343 .431 130 441 53 113 24 1 17 60 56 76 5 4 Rolen .255 .331 .397 106 380 56 97 25 1 9 55 40 52 3 2

I wonder which would have a better year if LaRoche were given the 3B job in LA.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rasmus on the big club

"some time this year he's going to be a contributing member of this club." ... you don't bring the kid up to sit on the bench. This must mean that Colby Rasmus will be our starting CF at some point in the 2008 season. I very much look forward to that and think it is the right move. My trepidation is that Colby has a history of coming out the box slow at each new step on the ladder. If so, will TLR freak and campaign to send the kid back to AAA?

by jjray on Dec 27, 2007 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

playing time

La Russa will undoubtedly do his normal thing and play four or even five guys regularly in the outfield. Getting Rasmus 400 or so at-bats that way would be just fine.

by apack on Dec 27, 2007 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great comparison, LB

One thing that Colby certainly has going for him is his impressive ability to take a walk. Even if he struggles swinging the bat at times, if he maintains his batting eye, he'll still have the ability to get on base. Even Albert didn't have that as a 21 year old.

And it's interesting to see Colby's numbers vis-a-vis Albert's at the same age. I wonder how the Midwest League compares to the Texas League in its affect on hitters. I realize that Rasmus was playing against older pitchers and better competition but my understanding is that the Texas League is also much more of a hitters' league.

by chuckb on Dec 27, 2007 11:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Actually

"One thing that Colby certainly has going for him is his impressive ability to take a walk. Even if he struggles swinging the bat at times, if he maintains his batting eye, he'll still have the ability to get on base. Even Albert didn't have that as a 21 year old" Houstoncardinal

Actually in 490 minor league AB's Albert Pujols had 46 BB vs. 47 SO, that is an amazing 1:1 ratio that is ideal.

In 967 minor league AB's Colby has 122 BB vs. 198 SO.

That is not close to Albert Pujols.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 27, 2007 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Albert has never been a strikeout hitter.

Whats the point of comparing K/BB, really? We all know that Albert is super-human in that regard.

Why not look at production? In terms of OPS, Sir Albert's was .916 in one year of low/high A ball(plus 15 PA in AAA) vs. Rasmus' .881 in roughly 2.5 seasons at A/A+/AA.

That IS pretty close to a future hall of famer.

The only thing between me and you is a thin layer of gabardine...

by silent_bob on Dec 27, 2007 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Taking a walk---not K/BB ratio

The first comment was about Rasmus taking a walk---that is, getting on base without a hit.

And his point (which you made) is right on: Rasmus' minor-league walk rate is about 33% higher than Pujols'...

Whether or not he strikes out more is irrelevant to this issue...

by salvomania on Dec 27, 2007 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rasmus

actually has walked more than Pujols did in the minors. He has terrific plate discipline. Which is important for two reasons, obviously.

Albert's a better contact hitter and has put up an inner-circle HLF start to his career. No one is saying that Rasmus will do that.

by plh903 on Dec 27, 2007 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And I've been

beaten to the punch.

by plh903 on Dec 27, 2007 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

I think I just misundestood what Houstoncardinal was getting at.

He was saying that Rasmus is good at walking. He threw in Alberts name and it confused me.

Albert doesn't walk much for a few reasons, 1. He does not swing and miss very often, therefore he puts a lot of balls in play. 2. He has tremendous plate coverage, and he can hit balls most guys can't even get to.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 27, 2007 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Read my post again

Rasmus strikes out more than Pujols; I never argued he didn't. However, he does walk more than Pujols ever did in the minors. That fact is true.

by chuckb on Dec 27, 2007 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True

It is true that Colby walks more than Albert. If Albert had as many minor league AB's as Colby he would still triail Colby by about 30 walks based on projection.

I just found it odd how you put Albert into the equation by saying Colby walks more than him. Albert is superior hitter who can hit a lot of pitches therefor puts balls in play more often be it a ball or a strike which decreases his chance of walking. It is nice that a guy can walk but it is not a stat you want to hang your hat on. I would rather have a guy who puts the ball in play more often. If you are going to bring up walks then you have to look at K's and it would be nice for Colby to try to get the K's down a bit.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 27, 2007 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he brought up albert

because i brought up albert --- i compared albert's age-20 season in the minors to colby's age-20 season. and in making the comparison, i also acknowledged the obvious point that, no matter how similar their stats might be, rasmus isn't likely to become the hitter pujols is.

rasmus does take more walks than pujols did at the same age --- that's simply a fact. nobody is suggesting that this means he's a better hitter than albert. it's simply a means of trying to characterize the type of hitter rasmus is.

by lboros on Dec 27, 2007 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Look at my post above

Albert's ability to avoid the walk is unparalleled. Guys with his ability don't come around too often. To hold Rasmus up to that standard is trivial.

Its all about production - Albert may put the ball in play more, but he also grounds into a significant amount of double plays when he uses his "plate coverage" to reach and yank an outside pitch.

Jim Edmonds walked over 100 times in 2000 and 2004. Both season totals are more than Pujols has EVER walked in a season. Were you also complaining about Edmonds in 2004 when he racked up .301/.418/.643 despite striking out 150 times?

It's the ability to take walks that keeps a player productive through the slumps. That's why Edmonds remained productive, and thats why we think Rasmus will do the same.

The only thing between me and you is a thin layer of gabardine...

by silent_bob on Dec 27, 2007 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Edit:

"Albert's ability to avoid the STRIKEOUT is unparalleled."

The only thing between me and you is a thin layer of gabardine...

by silent_bob on Dec 27, 2007 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jimmy

I am just kind of an old school guy at times, even being 27 years old. I like guys who make contact becasue it you always have a chance of something happening. Striking out gets you no where.

I was always amazed how Jimmy put up such great numbers despite striking out so much. I hope Colby can do what Jimmy did. I guess that is why Jimmy fell so fast too, he was really an all or nothing guy and that approach at the plate caught up to him when he was a bit slower and battling injuries.

But I hear ya there is a such thing as being effective despite high K totals. Albert is really an oddity and the high strike out guys are the norm now.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 27, 2007 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Strikeouts are basically

the same as other outs. In linear weights terms it is about -.30 to -.31. So over a hundred outs, theres a difference of about a run. It doesn't really matter how you make outs, because double plays make up the difference in the outs that move runners over etc. For instance, with a man on first, a strikeout is -.32 and a generic out is -.36.

Now, that isn't to say that putting the ball in play doesn't have its benefits. Ryan Howard will never hit for a high average because he can't sustain an on-contact batting average of .470 or whatever.

But you are better off saying that you like high batting average players than high strikeout players. And I'm not quibbling with your preference in terms of type of player or style of play, we all have those.

It just shouldn't be surprising that high-K guys generate lots of runs if they have a good walk-rate and slugging percentage. That is all that basically matters in very general terms. Jimmy had an excellent approach and excellent power. He also consistently hit for a decent average. Shouldn't be too surprising that he had an astonishing peak.

by plh903 on Dec 27, 2007 9:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Better off

saying you like high batting average players than low strikeout players.

by plh903 on Dec 27, 2007 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't get me wrong

I am very excited to see Colby play and contribute. I think he has the chance at being a good player.

However I don't think he will offensively compare to Albert. He is obviously more of a swing and miss guy than Albert. I would say Albert had a lot better plate discipline at the same point in their minor league careers.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 27, 2007 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is why Rasmus is doomed in St. Louis...

Never mind how much he walks, or hits for average or power, he has the temerity to strike out a lot. That's an unforgiveable sin in the eyes of Cardinal fandom (and media-dom).

He'll be another Ray Lankford.

by DiscoJer on Dec 27, 2007 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Edmonds struck out alot

If Rasmus hits 40 HRs, no one will care.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

instead of going backwards to see how already established talent performed in the minors, here's the list of the most hyped up prospects going back to 1990...

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Dec 27, 2007 11:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nice list

Our very own Russ Springer makes the list at #58 in...1992!!

by raisin on Dec 27, 2007 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

interesting list

Thanks. I took a quick look at 1999. Not sure why that year--but it reminded me of how the Cardinals had such a strong system at one point.

Drew and Ankiel 1-2. Hutchinson and Adam Kennedy in the top 100 and Pablo Osuna and Braden Looper were there for the Marlins-shortly after the trade.

Of course we know how each guy has panned out but that was basically six guys out of the top 100 in 1999. Not bad.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Dec 27, 2007 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not bad indeed. But maybe Osuna

isn't a good example, since it turned out (a couple years after he joined the Marlins) that he was actually at least 2 (maybe even 3, my memory fails me) years older than he said he was. He really was a man among boys at AA.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 27, 2007 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh

I know..but at the time he was highly regarded..and Im guessing he wasnt the only guy on the list with the age issue. Boy did Walt make some really good trades early on getting rid of propects/suspects for good major leaguers.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Dec 27, 2007 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome list

Mental Notes:

Funny how some guys hang around these lists for 3 years or more.

Wow, the Cardinals ruined a lot of pitchers arms in the minors during the 90's.

The Cardinals' farm system has been so week this decade.

Ankiel, Drew, Hutchinson...guys like this were all drafted out of slot and overpaid with Major League contracts at the hands of Boras. The top 10 in any year on these lists is littered with guys who were paid over "suggested slot" for the draft.

These lists are often skewed by major league opportunity factor. For example, a 1B prospect in the Cards organization will be rated lower than an inferior prospect in another organization that doesn't have El Hombre manning the position for the next several years.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Dec 27, 2007 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We should consider drafting 1B

high in the draft if they are can't miss talent and then using them to acquire established pitching via trade.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Unless he has a monster spring

I hope Colby doesn't start with the big club. I think the learning experience at AAA is more important than our chances in 2008.

Still it is nice to know it has happened before.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Dec 27, 2007 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand

people say bringing him up too early will destroy his development...but if he's getting the innings how is it?

I thought the whole purpose of the minor league system was to "try out" your talent in a place it doesn't matter if they win or not. That's what the Brewers did, they let all their young talent develop at the major league level because they were going to be losers anyway. Nobody is in centerfield on a non contending team so logic would dictate 500 PAs at the major league level will be better then 500 PAs at AAA.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Dec 27, 2007 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Another Angle

The Cards do not want to hasten Rasmus' timetable toward arbitration and free agency. My guess, they will wait as long as they can to maximize the games played until arbitration eligibility. It is not all about the player or team here, there are pennies to be pinched. (However, I would do the same in order to maximize his value.)

AAA is no longer a necessary step in player development. It has evolved into veteran depth players waiting for an injury to their big league club. AA is where the best prospects are usually playing. The level of play between AA and AAA is pretty similar, just the ages are different.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Dec 27, 2007 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, that was part of my thought too

If he can develop at either AAA or MLB then the former is perfered if it allows him another year of eligibility.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Dec 27, 2007 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that you're extrapolating too far

"It has evolved into veteran depth players waiting for an injury to their big league club. AA is where the best prospects are usually playing. The level of play between AA and AAA is pretty similar, just the ages are different."

I won't disagree that AAA is used to stockpile a lot of fringe MLB players but there's still a separation between AA and AAA. Even if we assume that the best prospects are at AA (which I think is dubious without some kind of validation) you still have a host of players in AA that can't cut AAA. You're looking at the distribution of 5% (top prospects) of the talent and assuming that the other 95% is distributed in the same way. I think that's an incorrect assumption.

I'm pretty certain that MLEs still treat AAA as the more difficult league.

by azruavatar on Dec 27, 2007 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They do

and it is. AAA is full of guys that have reached their peak, but aren't quite talented enough for the show. Or maybe they are and are overlooked, or blocked. Either way, it's most similar to the ML game in terms of playing it the right way, and players with polish and good approach.

There are tons of top prospects at AAA at any time as well. This combination would certainly seem to make it the harder league.

by plh903 on Dec 27, 2007 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Crash Davis say it's

an extra hit a week.....

by jillsinmo on Dec 27, 2007 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rasmus to the Olympics?

I wrote Goold to thank him for his article on Colby:

Derrick, Thanks for the nice piece on Rasmus. But I am surprised that you didn't mention that if he makes the big club out of spring training he would jeopardize his chance to go to the Olympics. Even if he has a hot spring, I think that tlr would like to see Rasmus start the year in Memphis, get to play in the Olympics, and join the club thereafter.

Even though we may be desperate for a lead-off hitter, I don't think the 2008 season will be determined by that alone, and they will think that Colby deserves the chance to play for the national team. We should all be excited for his opportunity, and would've thought you find that as big a story as his chance of the making the club out of spring training.

His reply:

Tim, I thought a lot about mentioning that, but thought there will be plenty of time at spring training to bring up that subject. The specifics of this story was to introduce Rasmus as the possible 2008 center fielder and discuss if he can make the leap. At spring training, one of the questions he'll be asked is about the Olympics and we'll discuss it there.

I also plan to mention it in a blog entry that gives details beyond the story ...

Thanks for writing, Derrick

LB didn't mention the Olympics either, and I'm sure many readers here would think it is ridiculous to allow non professional tournaments to interfere or expose players to injury risk etc. But a career is a long thing, and Olympics are a once in a lifetime chance. The Cardinal's 2008 season will not hinge on Colby starting at Busch in April. He deserves the chance, and I think he'll be better for it.

by Birds on the Bat on Dec 27, 2007 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Money

If Rasmus is on the opening day roster, then we get him for 6 years before he hits free agency. If we bring him up mid-season, we get him for 6.5 years before he hits free agency.

by mikedallas23 on Dec 27, 2007 12:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If in 6 years

Colby Rasmus is a superstar in the this league:

Chris Carpenter will be off the books
The Cardinals carried 3 superstar contracts (Rolen, Pujols, Edmonds) for years, they can do it again.

Bill DeWitt is making $300/pop off of bricks with people's names in them in the Musial Plaza. He got $30 M from MLB.com and will get $100 M + next year from MLBAM when it goes public (plus whatever dividends he makes off of the stock in the future).

I think he can spring for the extra half year.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If the Cardinals

were actually playing for something I might agree. Well, except that I don't give a shit about DeWitt making money and putting it in his pocket if he wants.

As it is, two months or something in AAA delays his free agency until after 2014 instead of 2013. That's a big deal and not worth it in a punt year.

by plh903 on Dec 27, 2007 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Rasmus

is what we think he is </dennis green>, he'll be signed to an extension long before his sixth year and this will become a moot point.

Fame was like a drug, but what was even more like a drug were the drugs

by Alxfritz on Dec 27, 2007 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Then tack it on

to the end of that. I mean, it's basically lighting money on fire either way. You sign him to that 6 year extension with two years remaining in 2012 instead of 2011.

One arbitration year is kind of a drop in the bucket, but if they start him with the big club, it'll just be another mark on my "I'm not sure these guys know what they're doing" list.

by plh903 on Dec 27, 2007 11:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

I'm just so hard up for something (anything!) to look forward to this season that I want Colby to start -- and play continuously -- with the club in '08. As long as he's getting the PAs, I don't think it will hurt him not being at AAA to start the year(I've said it before, but if Pence -- who is ridiculously similar to Rasmus -- would have started the year in Houston, the 'Stros would have been better off).

Plus he is such a unique talent that service clock should never be an issue; he's the best CF the cards have (barring a miracle) going into opening day. In the words of the Bad News Bears Take Japan "LET HIM PLAY!!"

Fame was like a drug, but what was even more like a drug were the drugs

by Alxfritz on Dec 27, 2007 11:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

No reason to waste a year of low-cost Colby. Since we won't be in contention this year, it would be great for him to start in AAA.

I'm not saying he couldn't make the jump, but has it ever hurt someone's progress to play in AAA for half a season?

I doubt it.

by plaz on Dec 27, 2007 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

for the long-term good of the team

imo ankiel, duncan, and ludwick need to play every day between now and 31 July. If they play as well as I think they will, we'll be able to trade one of them for something useful and then bring rasmus up. He'll get big-league AB's, we'll reload for 2009, and we won't blow a year of his arbitration.

Christmas lights are an extremely efficient method for converting Christmas Spirit into heat. -anon

by SleepyCA on Dec 27, 2007 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

good plan

by sportsman on Dec 27, 2007 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let us not forget the greatest and most tortured

player of the last 15 years: Ken Griffey Jr.

Junior, 1989. age: 19 AA: 61 at-bats, .279 / .353 / .492 A: 401 at-bats, .326 / .438/ .590 BA rank: 1
Junior was a transcendent athlete. He played football and baseball in high school. Spent his age 17 season in A- and tried to kill himself on an aspirin overdose. The next season, he came out in A+ and put up .338 / .431 / .575 and made the jump from a late season move up AA to being a non-roster invitee in Spring Training that made the big league club.

Griffey's rookie year, he jumped out to a 1st half of .279 / .343 / .472 with 13 HRs and 38 RBIs, but broke his finger in his right hand and was slowed to .242 / .308 / .344 and 3 HRs in the 2nd half. In fact, at the end of August, he stood at .286 / .344 / .457 that season only putting up a horrendous September.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 1:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

Imagine that...Griffey getting hurt. Gotta feel a little bad for that guy.

Lets say Griff had stayed healthy...Imagine the drama around a 2-man Hank Aaron chase between Bonds and KGJr. Two mega-talented formerly 5-tool players, sons of major leaguers, one believed to be clean and the other, well, you know. ESPN would be practically crying over that one I think.

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 27, 2007 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Getting Hurt

I obviously meant the broken finger part, not the attempted suicide part. I hadn't realized that.

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 27, 2007 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He almost made it through the 2007

season without getting hurt...He had his injury BEFORE the season started, and held up until mid September. I'll always have warm fuzzy feelings for Jr. because he has played the game with joyous abandon. As a fan, I appreciate that. But everytime I read something about him, I can't help wondering what if......if he didn't get hurt so much, he would be the one going for the all time homerun title, IMHO.

by jillsinmo on Dec 27, 2007 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Griffey

If he had taken the same path a Barroid, he would have been putting up 70+ homer seasons like clockwork and would be pushing 1000 homers by now. Unfortunately, unjuiced human bodies break down and do so more frequently as they get older.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Dec 27, 2007 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That they do

Griffey drastically accelerated that process by not working at it either. Apparently he often wouldn't stretch or run before games, would be eating in the clubhouse during games etc. Go figure, he ends up getting hurt when he got older.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Dec 27, 2007 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Depends

on which side of the debate you're on. Plenty of people will rightly tell you that steroids do a lot of harm to your long term and possibly immediate health.

by plh903 on Dec 27, 2007 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

one of

the funniest things i ever saw was the onion apologizing to Ken Griffey Jr on behalf of the nation...

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Dec 27, 2007 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great post LB...as always...

Does anyone know what # Rasmus will wear if/when he is called up?

by TommyBruno on Dec 27, 2007 1:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rasmus #4

according to his minor number that he wears. Kewl....

by TommyBruno on Dec 27, 2007 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

may have something to say about that.

Fame was like a drug, but what was even more like a drug were the drugs

by Alxfritz on Dec 27, 2007 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Regardless what Yadi does...

No doubt that the Rasmus jersey is a top seller in the STL in 2008. And beyond.....

by TommyBruno on Dec 27, 2007 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i for one think he could handle it

i don't really care where he starts. i'm not afraid that the MLB will stunt his growth, as long as TLR doesn't do something stupid like platoon him. but if he starts at AAA, no big deal. my main concern with rasmus is he's a very streaky hitter. he started and ended double a with a bang, but there was a long slump period that seemed to take an age to break out of. i know part of that he blamed on a sinus infection that caused him to miss some time and lose some weight.

i think if he does play the year in the MLB, i'd safely predict something like a .250/.350/.435 type of line for him, which if he can play a good CF, and i believe he can, then he'd be an asset. i would guess he that unless he has a red hot camp, he'll be in aaa for a couple of months or so first. i mean, pujols was going to start in AAA if bonilla hadn't got injured late in spring training.

I hate... so much about the things that you choose to be.

by erik on Dec 27, 2007 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Zips

Not fully understanding if this projection is only at the MLB level or not, they project Colby and the other CF as follows:



        AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS

Rasmus .245  .329  .419 121 425  46 104 23  3 15  50  46  90 14  5

Ankiel .241  .285  .458 122 448  46 108 18  2 25  77  27 105  2  2

Skippy .272  .314  .370 132 397  45 108 20  2  5  33  23  57  4  3

Luddy  .262  .330  .476 130 412  48 108 26  1 20  64  37 108  2  3

Zips didn't have Barton up for projections (for the Indians that is).

Of course, in fewer at-bats, Zips had Edmonds as a pretty good option (compared to all the others) in centerfield for 2008.

Bill James projects like this:
Player G AB H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB SO SB CS AVG Rasmus 141 490 127 63 38 2 24 85 66 64 102 20 5 .259 Ankiel 131 456 117 67 19 2 29 67 94 29 97 4 2 .257 Skippy 70 130 37 27 7 1 2 16 11 9 16 2 1 .285 Ludwick 89 235 62 36 15 0 11 35 40 20 58 2 2 .264

Looks like Colby would hold his own against the centerfielders we will potentially put out there.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the ZiPS projection

is just for the majors

by azruavatar on Dec 27, 2007 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not that this means much

but my cousin & her husband got to watch colby all summer long down in springfield. while i was down in mizzou for the funerals i got to talk to them about colby. i told them about my reservations about the kid & that i felt the Cards are placing too much on the kids shoulders. i feel like the Cards are betting he'll be a star & along with Albert lead the Cards to many wins in the future. i think thats wrong. and without seeing him play, i just dont think he'll live up to the hype.

they both said exactly what the post said yesterday & what LB said today. the kid more than lives up to the hype. his glove is ready right now to be a star CF. but his bat could use some more work.

i dont know folks. i'd like to believe every one, i really would. but until i see with my own eyes colby tearing it up in Busch, i'm still going to have my reservations about the kid. i've see this far act too many times. cant miss, franchise's #1 prospect dominantes the minors, yet when he hits the big leagues he falls flat on his face.

call me a pessimist if you will. but i'd rather say i'm living up to my mizzou roots. they dont call it the "show me state" for nothing. i really hope colby lives up to the hype. trust me folks i do. but until i see him play with my own eyes, i'm just going keep my expectations low.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Dec 27, 2007 3:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

pessimist

you're welcome

I hate... so much about the things that you choose to be.

by erik on Dec 27, 2007 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mo quote

"The club doesn't need him to be in the opening day lineup"

I'm calling BS on this one.

This team still has no leadoff hitter. Tony has said that it isn't fair to Duncan/Ankiel to bat them cleanup behind Albert and that makes Rolen more valuable there. I don't agree with that (I think Rolen is better as the #5 hitter).

Anyways, Colby has had his fair share of ABs as a leadoff hitter and has done particularly well. Having Colby on the Opening Day roster does a lot for this team.
H Lineup POS L Rasmus CF L Duncan/Ankiel LF/RF R Pujols 1B L Ankiel/Duncan LF/RF R Rolen 3B R Molina C L Kennedy 2B S Pitcher P S Izturis/R Ryan SS

Against LHP, Tony could use Ludwick for Duncan to get him into the lineup.

The team needs a leadoff hitter and Cezar isn't it. Ryan MIGHT be it, but he showed last year that he is quite valuable hitting in the #9 spot.

Above all, adding Rasmus makes Rick Ankiel/Chris Duncan (either) more expendible.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 27, 2007 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I've convinced myself

that the centerfielder will lead off, be that Colby, Skip, or Ankiel. Ryan has an outside chance I guess, more likely than Ankiel (who will play CF only if we trade for a slugging RF). I expect to see Skip take the first AB.

Only presumption, not based in fact, your results may vary.

by hit and run on Dec 27, 2007 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be a lineup I could watch

Throw in, Anderson as the backup C at the end of the year and slot in Hoffpauir as the 2B against LHP all year long and you have the makings of a pretty good lineup. The only vacuum is at SS and if Izturis still has the glove who knows, he could come around....

The real question is whether Rolen puts in enough to build his trade value... Here's hoping he is the next Mike Lowell, building value such that we can trade him for some decent prospects. Next would be trading the OF that steps up, whether it be Ankiel or Duncan next year. We'll see.

The other area where we could deal from strength is if we could get Ryan Franklin, Izzy, and Russ off to decent enough starts that we could get something in return for each of them. 2008 is all about building for the future, but this team should be fun to watch.

by Lawless on Dec 27, 2007 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

eternal optimists club memo #2: we should see a more active trade market for the cards during the first two months of the season than the next two months due to the improved play of at least three of the following: rolen, duncan, ankiel, ryan, izturis, and ludwick.

by sportsman on Dec 27, 2007 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Leadoff hitter is

not a position.

by plh903 on Dec 27, 2007 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No one said

it was.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 28, 2007 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Then stop talking

about it like it's one. It's a stupid reason to have him in the opening day lineup. You don't need a leadoff hitter like you need a shortstop or a center fielder.

by plh903 on Dec 28, 2007 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs