sorting out the pen

by lboros on Dec 24, 2007 9:34 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

no post tomorrow, just a light one today. i want to follow up on the solid posts about the bullpen that azruavatar and houstoncard have done in the last few days with this simple question: who's gonna be in the cardinal 'pen in 2008? this is the only part of the team with any stability; also the one with the most immediate help available. here's the current set of options --- holdovers on the left, reinforcements on the right:

izzy	perez
franklin	kinney
springer	worrell
wellemeyer	motte
thompson	boggs
ra flores	ro flores
t johnson	politte

at least some of the guys from column B are gonna end up in column A by the end of the season, and possibly sooner. worrell strikes me as a guy who should be given every chance to make the team out of spring training; he passed the triple A test last year and was particularly hard on right-handers, holding them (per Minor League Splits) to a .206 / .271 / .356 line in 160 at-bats. this guy does not throw particularly hard, but he's got a very funky motion and (they say) a wicked slider. the cardinals have added him to the 40-man; i'd a lot rather see what he can do in middle relief than stick w/ a known but limited quantity like brad thompson.

perez was flat-out unhittable last year, holding double A / triple A competition to a .131 average in 55 innings. he had a rough autumn with Team USA, but if he shows he can find the plate next spring he's a good candidate to go north with the club or join it before memorial day. motte, who didn't start pitching until mid-2006, probably needs a whole year at triple A, but he did very well in the arizona fall league and his line at double A last year was nearly as dominant as perez's. both of those guys should be in st louis by september, if not sooner. boggs also impressed in the az fall league, in part because the short outings (~50 pitches) allowed him to flash a more potent fastball. his readings on the gun led some scouts to start envisioning him as a relief pitcher.

a darkhorse candidate might be mike parisi, a fifth-starter candidate who could pitch his way into a bullpen apprenticeship (as wainwright did back in 2006). and then there are kinney politte and flores, all of whom already have been stamped with the big-league brand and could be just one good spring away from joining the bullpen.

how to make room for all these guys? first, move ryan franklin to the rotation; there's a knee-jerk reaction against this idea because he had awful w-l records with the mariners, but (as i've argued ad nauseum) his peripherals suggest he's about as good as the suppan class of innings-eating pitcher. second, get rid of thompson; he's only got one big-league pitch, and the hitters have solved it. third, look to trade izzy and/or springer at midseason if the team isn't well-positioned for a run. neither one wants to leave st louis and izzy has veto power, but i can imagine him agreeing to leave a dead-end team for a short-term assignment with a contender and another shot to pitch in the world series.

so i've got the team opening the season with worrell and one of the vets (politte kinney or ron flores) in the bullpen; wellemeyer springer and the lefties share the setup role, and perez joins them (or displaces one of them) after a little more seasoning at triple A. here's my opening-day staff:

rotation	pen
wainwright	izzy
looper	springer
pineiro	wellemeyer
franklin	worrell
mulder / reyes / colon / whoever	ra flores
	ro flores
	t johnson

safe travels to all of those who are on the move for the holidays; peace and joy to everyone.

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Tompson is developping...

... a new pitch, it is very wicked and will be called the "puppy-kick" pitch!

May everyone spend a very good Christmas

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Dec 24, 2007 9:54 AM EST reply actions

I would like to

see welleymer in th rotation and franklin in the pen merry christmas all..

by cm1000 on Dec 24, 2007 10:06 AM EST reply actions

I agree on Welle

Hope everyone has a wonderful Christmas, and a happy New Year!

by nybirdfan on Dec 24, 2007 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

Wellemyer

I agree. Wellemyer looked good in very limited starts. I'd like to see him get first shot. Franklin's success as a reliever was a surprise and I wouldn't mess with it. Merry Christmas.

by easy on Dec 24, 2007 10:20 AM EST reply actions

Franklin's success as a reliever

was a surprise b/c he was tremendously lucky. He K'd fewer than 5 people per 9 and had a BABIP of somewhere in the .250's. He won't repeat that success.

He won't make a great starter either but he is passable and would be better than signing Fogg or Lohse or someone of that ilk to a long-term deal. There's no reason to think he can't give us 180-190 decent innings from the rotation. He won't be as good out of the pen next year as he was this past year.

by chuckb on Dec 24, 2007 10:41 AM EST up reply actions

wonder

It seemed like he was able to strike guys out when he had to. He had a bit of a herky jerky motion and I remember him hitting 95-96 MPH when he had to up in the zone.

I think he is not a strike out guy but I think he has the stuff to strike guys out when he needs to. I think pitching too much hurts him because he does not have a true strike out pitch and the innings mount up on him.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 24, 2007 12:15 PM EST up reply actions

I'd have a hard time stomaching

both Floreses making the team. That would give the pen 3 lefties but it would mean that one of the much better righties doesn't go north to St. Lou. Ron has been more effective vs. lefties for his career but only has 71 career PA vs. lefties. Maybe Johnson or Randy Flores will be traded but there's no reason to take both Floreses. They're just not that good.

by chuckb on Dec 24, 2007 10:39 AM EST reply actions

Agreed

I was about the post the same thing. I would rather Thompson/Kinney/Perez then three lefties. I think Randy is trade bait at this point though, maybe TJ since he has more value.

by StLHugo on Dec 24, 2007 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah...

Yeah I agree we dont need three lefties in our pen...
I wouldnt mind them trading Randy but I really like Johnson and his kneebuckling slider that is one sweet pitch..........do not trade him!!!!!!
I think a lefty combo of Johnson and Ron Flo would be really good....

by Calhoun on Dec 24, 2007 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

Flores < Replacement level

I don't see any reason to keep Flores on the squad. Randy, that is. The platoon splits from last year are downright depressing. He completely lost effectiveness against lefties. He was worse against them than righties last year.

Against righties - .299/.338/.403
Against lefties - .326/.385/.432

Putting him in against lefties is pouring gasoline on a fire, at this point. There are probably a half dozen people I'd rather trust to get righties out from the big club and the minors, including several righthanded pitchers. And including his brother.

I doubt that he can even be dealt, but I'd like to find a way to get a more promising arm than him in the bullpen.

by Merry CRasmus on Dec 24, 2007 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

Me too

I liked Wellenmyer a lot, thought he looked good in his starts. With the proper conditioning, I think he would adapt well to a shot in the rotation

by frankenbird on Dec 24, 2007 10:39 AM EST reply actions

Wellemeyer may benefit...

from the instruction he got last year to not throw every fastball with "all-out" effort... if he can find the plate more often, he's got good enough stuff to get hitters out.

I think he might be more valuable in the rotation than in the bullpen; let's see if he gets the chance in the spring.

Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays!

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Dec 24, 2007 10:55 AM EST reply actions

bits and pieces

since we're slinging opinions while waiting for santa to deliver the starter we really need, i'd say just like the outfield, we need to move as many younger players to the pen asap. probably best to go north with proven people with the idea they can develop value. overall, though, i agree that we have at least as good a set of home grown options as lohse et al. my personal favorite to have the best upside of the rotation candidates is welle. i think over a full season he could easily surpass looper. all other possible converts seem trade-bait to me. lastly, i agree on franklin. i'd say over a full season he is less likely than looper or welle to make a positive contribution. i'd swap flores too. with what bullpen guys are getting, some of these guys would seem desirable to some other team as part of a bigger package. in the end i would base a lot of my decision on the group heading north based on improving their trade value. we have better options waiting.

by sportsman on Dec 24, 2007 11:02 AM EST reply actions

The problem with the idea

of moving younger players to the pen ASAP is that that's what you get: younger players in the pen, not in the starting rotation. Furthermore, it's already been done, and it's hurting the team. One of the many blunders of the Jocketty/Maier approach to the farm system was a tendency to draft relievers and keep them in the pen in the minors, rather than drafting guys who can make it as starters and nurturing them carefully until they appear as starters in the bigs. That's one reason why the Cardinals haven't produced a successful, home-grown starter (Waino doesn't count as he wasn't "home-grown") since Matt Morris.

This is starting to come around, with guys like Garcia, Herron and Boggs in the system, so why mess with it? Yes, there are a few "young guys" who are pen-ready at this point (Perez, Worrell), and they should get the chance to compete for a bullpen job. But don't FORCE young players into the pen. You risk losing them as starters, which are vastly more important and harder to find.

by StanTheManFan on Dec 24, 2007 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

since Matt Morris?

>>That's one reason why the Cardinals haven't produced a successful, home-grown starter (Waino doesn't count as he wasn't "home-grown") since Matt Morris.<<

Danny Haren doesn't count? Agree with your premise though.

by jjray on Dec 24, 2007 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

Haren would have counted

if they'd just held onto him -- which is the other part of my concern. Once you do succeed in cultivating a stud starter, KEEP HIM. Do NOT use him as trade bait for a shiny trinket unless you're sure that you have at least 8 other starters in the stable who'll be under contract for a while, because at any given time, 3 of them will be busted. The nature of the beast.

by StanTheManFan on Dec 24, 2007 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

No he doesn't...

Since he didn't succeed until he was away from Duncan/Tony. He never got much of a chance as a starter in St. Louis (doing the stater/reliever split thing his last year here), it wasn't until he was in Oakland that he got a chance to start full time.

by DiscoJer on Dec 24, 2007 10:37 PM EST up reply actions

young guns

ok stan, i agree. did not mean to suggest any be forced before they were ready. just referring to NOT doing what happened last year with cairo playing over ryan or hoffpauir, etc. all things being more or less equal, gotta find out what you have.

by sportsman on Dec 24, 2007 8:13 PM EST up reply actions

Franklin looks like

a strong candidate for regression to the mean to me. There is nothing, zero, nil, Nichts, nada, nichevo in his history to suggest that he's really as good a pitcher as he appeared to be last year. Everybody gets lucky once in a while, and not only did he have his lucky year in 2007, he's getting old.

That said, your real point here is that the pen is deep in fungible arms, and that's true enough. Furthermore, all that's necessary is for just one of them to make a successful transition to starter. The question is: CAN one of them make that transition? Wellemeyer strikes me as having a better chance than Franklin, but he's never pitched more than 150 innings in a season (even in the minors) and can't be counted on to start deep into the season. Boggs has better credentials as regards durability but is probably a year away. The others aren't really close to making the transition, except for Thompson, and sadly, you're probably right that he lacks the stuff for it.

by StanTheManFan on Dec 24, 2007 11:05 AM EST reply actions

some interesting data on franklin

Looking at his "regression to the mean" period, over the last 2 months, it seems that it actually (and surprisingly) coincided with a massive increase in his K rate (albeit even greater increase in BB and HR rates). In the first 4 months of the season, 1 APR - 31 July, vs the last 2 months of the season:



               W    L   IP    K/9   HR/9   K/BB   ERA   WHIP  BABIP

1 APR-31 JUL   4    0   54.3  4.1   0.66   4.17   1.33  0.88  0.202

1 AUG-30 Sep   0    4   25.6  6.7   1.40   3.80   6.66  1.40  0.318

The BABIP numbers don't quite line up with fangraphs- I used the formula (H-HR)/((IP*3) + H - HR - SO) and get an overall result of 0.240 for the season instead of the .249 that fangraphs states, but it should be rough order of magnitude correct.

Anyway if it's just "regression to the mean" it's a rather extreme case of it, and the way it is centered on a discontinuity makes it seem that something more than just random luck catching up to him was the cause. I'd hazard a guess that he injured himself around the end of July, or changed the way he pitched for some other reason.

Christmas lights are an extremely efficient method for converting Christmas Spirit into heat. -anon

by SleepyCA on Dec 24, 2007 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

Unfortunately Kinney

is not likely to have that good spring in 2008, since he has reinjured himself and is expected to be out for at least the first part of the season. Otherwise, he deserves to have the inside track for a bullpen spot based on his work in 2006. As for Franklin, he may have already reverted to the mean over the last two months of 2007, although that may be attributable to overwork.

by MikeG on Dec 24, 2007 11:31 AM EST reply actions

over work

has a lot to do with it I hope Frankin has some trade value.bullpen arms are worth something in the trade market so maybe something will happen seems like we have some options for a trade.

by cm1000 on Dec 24, 2007 12:30 PM EST reply actions

yes but

i think franklin is one of the few pieces we have that if we traded them, i'd say we traded high. with his contract he might be a more attractive addition to a "duncan + ?" trade effort to get the SP, lead-off, or righty OF we need. i have no qualms about moving springer into the set-up slot and let one of the young guys try to take it away.

by sportsman on Dec 24, 2007 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

Keep Thompson. Trade Reyes.

Thompson has more value than Reyes. Reyes can't pitch from the stretch anymore, can't get anyone out when they are on (thus no value in the pen).

He has 3 pitches and two of them MLB hitters have already figured out and the third is losing velocity by the day.

I'm alittle confused why we just took the only stable part of the team and made it less stable in this excercise.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 24, 2007 1:12 PM EST reply actions

value of relievers

Because a good bullpen doesn't really help much if your starters aren't any good.

And also because the success of relief pitchers tends to be highly volatile from year to year. Therefore keeping the same crew from last year isn't all that likely to provide stability in terms of performance -- it only gives the comfort of keeping what worked well in the past, but that could well be a false comfort.

It seems to me that the Cards best strategy here would be to deal off their established veteran relievers while their value is still high, and we should particularly make an effort to sell high to those GM's who have shown they over-value relievers (Wade, Krivsky, Hendry, et al.)

by apack on Dec 24, 2007 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

and then what?

Replace them with minor league relievers that we hope will be able to convert to major league relievers? I mean, I understand moving Franklin to another team (still young and moderate contract) and maybe Izzy at the trade deadline but nothing else makes that much sense.

Chris Perez has a very talented arm but he goes through stretches where he couldn't find the plate with a map. On a very good Team USA, he may have been the worst pitcher. I'd like to see him spend some time in Memphis first before we throw him to the lions. Relievers can have very fragile psyches and once broken, they are hard to repair.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 24, 2007 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

agree

I agree with you. Franklin could be traded but I don't really know what he would get you, and Izzy could be traded at the deadline in 2008 if a team in contention actually needs a closer/set up man. That is a wait and see thing, who knows Izzy may have no value at the trade deadline.

The Cardinals absolutely need to develope starting pitching. I could care less about bullpen help. It seems like you can pull 29-36 year old bullpen guys off the scrap heap and you get a 50/50 chance they have a great year for you. I am not too impressed with all these future bullpen guys in the Cards system, I would maybe look at trading some of them if they have more value at this point.
.

by ICbirdfan on Dec 24, 2007 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

hardcore, all i proposed

was to remove brad thompson and ryan franklin from the bullpen. does the stability of the pen rely on those two guys? i kinda think not. only one of them is in a critical role --- franklin, who was plucked off the scrap heap last year. just as wainwright and kinney were plucked out of triple A the previous year, and just as al reyes was plucked off the garbage heap the year before that.

the cardinals change setup men every year, and (aside from 2003) they never seem to have a problem in that role. franklin's performance as a setup man can be easily replaced from within the organization. his likely performance as a starting pitcher, less easily replaced. that's why i'd move him to the rotation.

by lboros on Dec 24, 2007 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

Wainwright is a bit of a different story

If we've got a minor league starter that has the pedigree Wainwright has, I'd much rather trade Looper or Reyes and use that guy in the rotation than as a setup guy.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 24, 2007 9:19 PM EST up reply actions

Hey, on all the diaries that just got the ax

I tried clicking on an old link to go back and read it (I know it's hidden on the main page) and I can't read any of the posts made in it. It just says Sorry, I can't find that story

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 24, 2007 1:21 PM EST reply actions

riches under the tree

I was warmed by the opening thread (and the posts that followed) and I think we really DO have at least one strength -- bullpen depth (options).
In fact I ALMOST liked Larry's side B better than side A. Partly because of my positive enthusiasm for Perez and Worrell, and partly my long-suffering angst re Izzy {too many five cigarette ninth innings} and my concern about boy face (Thompson.)
I am multi-ambivalent about Franklin, fearing that maybe he has been over-achieving, but on the other hand (unlike with Izzy) I "felt" good when he entered a game in the 7th or 8th... and, if we fail to land another capable starter (our sorest need, I think)Franklin might just be a poor-man's Looper -- not that great, but maybe adequate. He ain't Kip Wells, at least.

by the Tewk on Dec 24, 2007 1:22 PM EST reply actions

billy bean 'em

I would love to see the cards pick a few of these guys and make a committement to using them in the best possible situations for personal success. Increase their value as much as possible and trade for good prospects before the '08 deadline. I mean really they have a (weak) rotation that should allow for some more unorthadox calls to the pen. Say letting the likes of thompson and franklin work on bottom of the lineup hitters to pad their numbers and hope a team in a playoff run is looking to make a key addition to its bullpen.

I agree with wellemeyer in the rotation at this point but he also would be a good candidate for this kind of treatment. Next season being a playoff year is a longshot already anyway. I'm sure there is a chance this would be too dificult to make work but if '08 is a wash anyway then why not try it.

by clcardsfan on Dec 24, 2007 1:59 PM EST reply actions

Merry Christmas VEB

after a long two weeks filled with multiple funerals & memorial services, i'm looking foward to getting back into the swing of things & start discussing Cardinal baseball again. many thanks again Larry for providing such an amazing forum for all of us fans. you have no idea just how much VEB has help me personally get through the past 5 years. i really cant thank you enough.

i hope every one here at VEB is able to have a very happy & safe christmas.

i do actally have a question about today's main post. with what looks like almost a completly different pen next season, how does dave duncan fit into that? i guess my biggest question is, why can he coach many different pitching styles when it comes to the pen, but not the starting rotation? i guess i could be beating a dead horse, but it all comes back to the way he & tony mishandled reyes. could all of that mess simply be a personality conflict? adam's had no problem with dave. neither did morris back in the late 90's. Carp thrived under dave. so he can work with pitchers who dont just throw the two seamer.

so the kids this season & next in theory who throw gas should be OK. but i'd still like to know just what the heck happend with Anthony? dude had so much promise, & now, well now not so much.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Dec 24, 2007 2:10 PM EST reply actions

the parts are there

to swing a trade if you add say duncan with reyes and frankin you might be able to get a decent starter..that will not help now but if you are looking ahead> Wainright Carpenter 3rd pinero and welleymer for 09 does not look bad and if you get a real starter to go with carp and wainer then it looks a lot better... Also if you only have to get one starter next year the chances are you can get a good one and still build the team.

by cm1000 on Dec 24, 2007 2:18 PM EST reply actions

I want Matt Cain

in a non-sexual way. Make that happen.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 24, 2007 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

like the zach braff rap

yo i'm hear to say
in a non-sexual way-- i want matt cain. matt cain

Fritz's boys need a house

by erik on Dec 24, 2007 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

that would take a

load of prospects and it would be nice but dont see it might get lowery and sanchez..

by cm1000 on Dec 24, 2007 2:40 PM EST reply actions

merry christmas to all

how many days to go for ST? can we start counting down?

"bury the dead, feed the survivors and rebuild the city" (marques do pombal, 1777)

by Johnny64 on Dec 24, 2007 3:55 PM EST reply actions

Wellemeyer

I can't figure out why Wellemeyer is drawing support for being a starter.

His first go-round in the rotation screams fluke. A 4.46 ERA over eight starts where he had four bad starts, then a couple of passable games and a couple of good starts. But during that stretch opponents had an .806 OPS, he walked 19 batters to 24 strikeouts and gave up six home runs. While it's only a small sample, it didn't look very promising. And he didn't pitch for six weeks after those starts.

Wellemeyer's mechanics do not lend themselves well to success in starting. He puts a god awful amount of torque on his elbow, meaning he'll be gassed by the sixth inning or getting Tommy John surgery.

by ryanisforever on Dec 24, 2007 11:53 PM EST reply actions

Agree completely

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 25, 2007 1:00 AM EST up reply actions

Im with you Bobby B

by Calhoun on Dec 25, 2007 11:53 PM EST up reply actions

Musial Paver for Christmas

Never thought getting a brick for Christmas would actually be an enjoyable gift.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Dec 25, 2007 9:07 AM EST reply actions

I would take

one of those bricks for Christmas as well.

Merry Christmas to all!!!

by cardsgirl95 on Dec 25, 2007 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

Wish my wife had known about this...

She gave me a lot of nice stuff for Christmas, including a great new Cardinals shirt, but I agree, it'd be nice to have a brick celebrating my all-time favorite Cardinal, even ahead of Prince Albert. Got a reference for them, so that I can give her a subtle hint for our wedding anniversary? :-)

by StanTheManFan on Dec 25, 2007 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

No brick

but I got a DVD of the 64/67/68 Series films, a LaRussa bobblehead and an Ozzie Smith Puppet Kooler, which is one of the spookiest things I've ever seen.

The cat is fine, thank you.

by Intheway on Dec 26, 2007 12:37 AM EST reply actions