miles to go
tomorrow's a big deadline vis-vis arbitration-eligible players: teams either have to offer those guys a contract or nontender them, which makes them free agents. the cards' arb-eligibles are rick ankiel (2d year of eligibility), aaron miles (2d year), yadi molina (2d year), and todd wellemeyer (1st) the prime nontender candidate on that list is aaron miles; he made a million bucks last year and will probably be due a bump to $1.2m or so via arbitration. miles doesn't show up on any lists of likely nontender candidates, but to me he's a no-brainer --- a subpar defender with a career ops+ of 73 and a shaky claim on a roster spot. when the cards signed izturis, i resisted the temptation to bash the signing because i figured it meant that miles --- a similar player with less ability and less upside --- would be shown the door at the nontender deadline. that was the silver lining i perceived in an otherwise unattractive maneuver; my theory will be put to the test tomorrow.
for such an insignificant player, miles has commanded a disproportionate share of attention in the cardinal blogsphere. he has become a symbol of two related complaints, the first being la russa's love for "heads-up" veterans who are long on character and intelligence but short on baseball-playing ability. that's a longstanding tendency that predates tony's arrival in st louis; when i lived in the east bay during the 1980s, back in bill james' ascendancy, la russa began giving steady work to mike gallego, who (sort of) could play all three infield positions but couldn't hit for average (career .239 mark) or power (.328 slugging), couldn't get on base, and couldn't run the bases. yet gallego stayed in the big leagues for 13 seasons --- thanks to la russa, who was his manager for 10 of those years (including 2 in st louis, 1996-97). gallego's career ops was comparable to miles' (.648 vs .680), and since he played in a lower-scoring era his career ops+ (81) was considerably better than miles' (73).
the other thing miles has come to symbolize is the team's backwardness vis-vis basic sabermetric principles. after 25 years of bill james and 5 years of moneyball, it has become common knowledge that a guy with a low on-base pct and low slugging pct is not a productive hitter, regardless of what his batting average says. but the cardinals' decisionmakers have seemed not be in on the secret, filling the roster with high-average, low-obp/slg hitters like miles and encarnacion and taguchi and bennett and, this year, izturis. every team has one or two of these guys at the end of their bench, but the cardinals have them throughout the starting lineup --- miles most of all. in his two years with the cards he has started 202 games and made nearly 1,000 plate appearances, a 25th-man masquerading as a quasi-regular. at that level of playing time, miles' flaws swamp his virtues (which include versatility and situational smarts); he's an asset if he only bats 175 times in a season but an albatross if he bats 300 or 400 times. these are the most rudimentary of sabermetric principles, the first day's lessons; aaron miles' continued presence on the st louis roster and his prominence in their lineup represent a kind of dunce cap.
he now sits 3d on the depth chart at ss, behind izturis and ryan. some people might argue he's #2 on that list, but ryan in half a season started nearly as many games at ss (28) as miles (40) last year. the cardinals clearly are prioritizing defense up the middle, and miles runs a definite 3d in that category as an ss. and he's an uneasy second on the depth chart at 2b, with both ryan and jarrett hoffpauir competing for that title. i think he's the #4 middle infielder on the team, behind kennedy izturis and ryan; there's probably only room on the roster for 1 middle-infield reserve. so even if he's re-signed miles would be far from assured of making the club out of spring training --- or at least, he'd be far from assured of making a non-la-russa-managed club.
the ironic thing is that miles was never in the cardinals' plans, not from the start. he was a throw-in in a minor trade (king for bigbie and miles), a player the cards didn't even ask for --- the rockies just gave him away because they needed a spot on the 40-man and st louis didn't yet have a replacement for grudzielanek. but a few days later they signed one (junior spivey), and they already had two other backup infielders (hector luna and deivi cruz) on the team; miles came to camp as the #5 or #6 middle infielder and seemed destined for triple A. but cruz and spivey had awful springs, luna's frequent defensive lapses landed him in tony's doghouse, and miles hung in there and claimed the last roster spot; he went 4 for 5 on opening day 2006 and we've been stuck w/ him ever since.
mozeliak made the correct call in jettisoning two other veteran subs, so taguchi and gary bennett, who were long on character but short on ability; i trust that he'll do the same re miles, creating an opportunity for a younger, better player and denying la russa the option of turning miles into the next mike gallego.
* * * * * * * *
one name to watch when the nontender rolls are announced is toronto's josh towers. the blue jays are rumored to be leaning toward retaining this guy, but i'm gonna throw him out there anyway because he's so ripe for non-tenderization. he sits 6th on toronto's rotation depth chart (and the jays are aggressively looking to add pitching), but as a 3d-year arb-eligible he's probably going to cost $4m to $5m --- a steep price for a #6 starter. what's to like about towers? for one thing, he's the type of pitcher dave n tony bring the best out of: a veteran (6 big-league seasons, soon to turn 31) who pitches to contact (career 4.8 k/9 rate) and gets groundballs (career gb/fb split of 43-37). but he's got some features that us sabr-statty types can love as well; despite an awful couple of years (combined record of 7-20, 6.50 in 2006-07), his peripherals remain pretty good --- k/bb of 3.45 last year, with fewer than 2 walks a game. his fip last season was 4.75 in a hitter's park in a dh league; at pitcher-friendly busch iii in a non-dh league, he might be capable of league-averageishness. i am not advocating strongly here, merely pointing out a possibility; if kris benson and josh fogg are gonna be on the radar screen, then towers (if, in fact, he's nontendered) might as well be too.
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Thank you
It's amazing to me how many Miles-backers that lurk in Cardinal nation, both on VeB and in my day-to-day baseball talk at work, at the sports bar, etc. I hear this all too often:
"But the guy hits .290, he can play 2B and short!"
"It's not his fault that he got over 400 AB's this year! Eckstein got injured and Kennedy sucked..."
The guys OBP is .30 higher than his average. He has ZERO power and he can't steal bases. Oh yeah, and he's a liability in the field, especially at SS.
Thanks for the memories, lil' guy.
by silent_bob on Dec 11, 2007 10:01 AM EST 0 recs
Oh and he'll only cost ya
by silent_bob on
Dec 11, 2007 10:07 AM EST
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Kennedy wasn't here in 2006
by silent_bob on
Dec 11, 2007 11:19 AM EST
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I have tried to look at Miles in a positive light
by Red Blazer on
Dec 11, 2007 1:55 PM EST
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Miles
by rockin the red on
Dec 11, 2007 10:22 AM EST
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Playing it the right way
If you don't think Rolen plays the game "the right way" then, well....
Anyways a manager/player feud like this one only rears its ugly head when things aren't going right: injuries, slumps, losses, media pressure, DUI's, etc.
by silent_bob on
Dec 11, 2007 10:28 AM EST
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Rolen
by rockin the red on
Dec 11, 2007 11:16 AM EST
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Just to point out
He might be an ass but he's an ass in private.
Tony is the one saying what Rolen said.
And no I don't want to hear about sources say or friends of Rolen say. Rolen hasn't said anything wrong.
by Harknights on
Dec 11, 2007 1:26 PM EST
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Not exactly...
by Forsch31 on
Dec 11, 2007 10:18 PM EST
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Really?
Which article was that?
by Harknights on
Dec 12, 2007 12:26 AM EST
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miles to go
by sportsman on
Dec 11, 2007 8:10 PM EST
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I can't do...
But I know a lousy St Louis Cardinal infielder when I SEE one. And his name is Adam Kennedy.
Do you guys plan on getting some hot tar and chicken feathers, to send Aaron on his way?
by the Tewk on
Dec 11, 2007 9:35 PM EST
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kennedy upswing
71
75
81
110
98
100
96
86
50
Career norm is 88. I don't know how to do that versus all second basemen, but I imagine he'd be average or above slightly.
I'm not promising he'll rebound from that knee injury completely, but I think it's fair to expect a significant swing back to the norm for Kennedy. Not having a black hole at 2B will be worth a couple more wins by itself.
by Snacks LaPoint on
Dec 12, 2007 9:40 AM EST
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I have
Bob those quotes are simular to what I have said. My take has always been. What do you expect of a guy who is being asked to more than he is capable of, and yeah I mentioned .290. I know it doesn't mean much. I guess for some unexplained reason I have a soft spot for the guy.
I do wonder what Tony will have to say about it, but he should be let go.
by nybirdfan on
Dec 11, 2007 10:32 AM EST
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I wasn't picking on you in particular
by silent_bob on
Dec 11, 2007 10:37 AM EST
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Bob
I can explain why I stick up for the guy. Maybe it is the harsh treatment he gets, and I just feel for him. Like rooting for an underdog.
by nybirdfan on
Dec 11, 2007 8:37 PM EST
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Aaron Miles
I was impressed with how he managed at short—not good by any stretch, but not hair-rendingly awful.
He's impressed by competently doing what he does, which is filling in when your starter goes down. But he's not better than Ryan or likely Hoffpauir. I wouldn't mind if he stayed in the organization at Memphis but it'd be very disappointing if Mo signs him to a guaranteed contract in the next 24 hours.
by liam on
Dec 11, 2007 2:55 PM EST
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Couldn't agree more on Miles
by houstoncardinal on Dec 11, 2007 10:08 AM EST 0 recs
Agree Completely
by jimmybaseball42 on
Dec 11, 2007 10:58 PM EST
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I remember when TLR brought
This is a big test for the "new" front office. Handle this right, and a lot of slack will be given in other matters.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 11, 2007 10:08 AM EST 0 recs
Gallego
by Hinkster on Dec 11, 2007 10:10 AM EST 0 recs
I don't even remember
by the Tewk on
Dec 11, 2007 9:44 PM EST
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Im not sure
Im probably more pro-LaRussa on this board than most. I also think he pays more attention to the "sabermetric" side of things than given credit for. That said, I never have agreed/understood his obession with the scrappy white guy thing. Maybe he sees himself some there. Heck, maybe we all do. But Miles is a bad baseball player. There is no other way to look at it.
Part of the problem is you have guys like Dan M. and Al Hrabosky clamoring about how good a year Miles had last year, etc. Well, the problem there is that the expectations were so low of him--that he exceeds them. Then we fool ourselves into the idea the guy is having a nice year. And people who put weight into what the announcers say (and its ok if they do that) then they think Miles/Eckstein, etc. are better than they actually are.
by beanocook on Dec 11, 2007 10:11 AM EST 0 recs
Towers
Imagine what would happen to Looper if he was thrown into the AL east.
and we saw what Boston thought about Piniero's viablilty as a starter...
by Beware the Molinas on Dec 11, 2007 10:13 AM EST 0 recs
All I know about Towers
He'd throw him in during a 2-start week and either look really smart or really ignorant with no in-between.
by silent_bob on
Dec 11, 2007 10:16 AM EST
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Disagree here
by fourstick on
Dec 11, 2007 11:42 AM EST
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and a groundball ptc guy playing in a turf
by Valatan on
Dec 11, 2007 12:43 PM EST
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Wellemeyer
by cariocacardinal on Dec 11, 2007 10:35 AM EST 0 recs
+1
by nybirdfan on
Dec 11, 2007 8:40 PM EST
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I was in the Bay Area about the time
by tbell61 on Dec 11, 2007 10:37 AM EST 0 recs
on the phone
Just a hunch.
by raisin on Dec 11, 2007 10:38 AM EST 0 recs
No Mo Miles
by Hungry Jack on
Dec 11, 2007 10:53 AM EST
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Considering
One question though, isn't this Yadi's first arb-eligible year?
by cardsgirl95 on Dec 11, 2007 10:45 AM EST 0 recs
just like Whitey
by giveml on
Dec 11, 2007 1:16 PM EST
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Quote of the day
Hopefuly that will remind some of us that it wasn't Miles' fault that the othe MI sucked and he was over exposed.
Don't get me wrong, I think non-tendering So Taguchi and aaron Miles are the right moves to make, but I get tired of the insults directed toward them Like it or not, with Eck hurt much of the year, Kennedy being generally awful and Ryan being young, Miles was at times our best option in the middle infield last year. Yes he was bad, but arguably still better than other options at time. And you could make the same basic argument for Taguchi.
Again, I agree these guys no longer fit, but there was a time when they did; let's not forget that when we see them go.
by Zubin on Dec 11, 2007 10:50 AM EST 0 recs
Agreed
by rockin redbird on
Dec 11, 2007 11:40 AM EST
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Agreed
by iron duke75 on
Dec 11, 2007 11:44 AM EST
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Scorn
I have nothing but respect for guys like Miles, Gallego, Miguel Cairo, etc., who are really only in the league b/c they have seemingly no ego and are willing to do just about anything to get on the field. I really wish that someone could switch the hearts of JD Drew and Aaron Miles. But sadly in baseball talent trumps effort...At the end of the day you could sign up 25 construction workers and pay them all minimum salary, and I guarantee you they will bust their asses...but they'll lose every game.
by redbirdnation8206 on
Dec 11, 2007 4:31 PM EST
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well
by nybirdfan on
Dec 11, 2007 8:47 PM EST
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Zubin, I agree with what you say...
by tbell61 on
Dec 11, 2007 12:02 PM EST
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i agree
by dmb60614 on
Dec 11, 2007 1:01 PM EST
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Mr T says
by Toddius396 on
Dec 11, 2007 3:15 PM EST
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An aside on Rolen
I agree that Scotty has taken the high road - and I believe that he's a competitor who will play hard, even if he doesn't want to be there. There's 8 other guys on the field who are trying to win, and I think Scotty will do what he has to not to let them down - regardless of the fact that he could give a squirt of piss about his manager. We've never heard comments that Rolen is a bad teammate. He may not drink with Dunc and TJ, or start restaurants like AP and Jed, but he's from Indiana. Have to believe that the midwestern work ethic is part of him.
And if I'm wrong, well, wouldn't be the first time a player I liked failed to meet expectations.
by bukowski on Dec 11, 2007 11:05 AM EST 0 recs
Ok, please straighten me out
"Rolen didn't say he objects to wearing the Cardinals uniform or dislikes St. Louis. He simply made it clear he would prefer to play for another manager."
ONe of the things that made me mad was a post here on VEB a couple of week ago. Someone quoted either a blog post or a radio report saying that "Rolen said he wouldn't play in a Cardinal uniform again."
Which is true? This article or what Rolen supposedly said?
by sdrone on
Dec 11, 2007 11:39 AM EST
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I would say
Unless it's Bernie. Trust this over Bernie. I will respectfully decline from sharing my opinion regarding him.
by bukowski on
Dec 11, 2007 1:05 PM EST
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Jose
by jimmybaseball42 on
Dec 11, 2007 11:06 PM EST
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+1
by cardsgirl95 on
Dec 11, 2007 11:48 AM EST
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Where's the evidence for Tony's love?
What I don't get is why people are blaming Tony for Miles prominence or why people assume Tony loves Miles. Tony didn't give Miles any special treatment - Luna, Spivey, Kennedy, Eckstein's failures/injuries and our rotten farm system are why Miles got ABs. Likewise, it's Tony's ire for Ryan and not his love of Miles that gave Miles greater ABs last year.
For someone who prizes middle-infield defense, I doubt Tony is clamoring that we spend more $ on Miles next. I bet he still remembers that game with 3 Es against the Giants in July.
by enoscountry on Dec 11, 2007 11:05 AM EST 0 recs
miles and miles and miles before we rest?
as for towers, seems he is one of the vast army of almost good pitchers looking for a 4-5 slot somewhere (aka pinieroesque). the question to me is, is he millions better than franklin, wellemeyer, or thompson? we need more exceptional players and that's where the money should go.
itr, seems that lincecum and cain are in play as well as rios. if matsui is in the mix, then so should the cards. maybe there is some reason to talk with the giants and jays.
by sportsman on Dec 11, 2007 11:05 AM EST 0 recs
I spent over an hour
by ridgesee on
Dec 11, 2007 11:44 AM EST
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Votto is definitely a stick
by the Tewk on
Dec 11, 2007 10:04 PM EST
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If someone is an asset when they
The only time Miles really has value is if you absolutely need a basehit. If a walk won't do it and you have to have runners going or something to that effect. But how unique of a skillset is that?
I also have to vehemently disagree with the idea that Miles is overexposed due to injuries. He received the same number of at-bats in 2006. Why he was ever playing SS when Brendan Ryan was on the bench (or at third) shows TLR's inability to correctly evaluate the better fielder.
I'm someone who has been vocal about Miles. It's not because I don't like him as an individual but he doesn't offer the team anything. He doesn't run well, he doesn't field well, he doesn't hit well. He's had the faulty facade of versatility forced on him but he's not really that either. He's the definition of replacement level and if the Cardinals had looked in the upper levels of the minors I bet they could have found either a) a slick fielding SS with no offense or b) someone who is a little choppy with the glove but hits for power. Miles remains a player with a very useful but limited and common skillset -- there are better ways to allocate roster spots.
by azruavatar on Dec 11, 2007 11:10 AM EST 0 recs
disagree
That being said--when Rolen was out he put Ryan at third because he was clearly the best defensive option for that position. Putting Miles at SS and Ryan at 3B was smarter than Ryan at SS and Miles at 3B.
Some fans think managers have this duty to keep putting guys in situations best for the individual--no, he has a duty to do what's best overall for the team. That's why Ryan would play 3B in those situations. It wasn't optimal, but better than the alternative.
I don't think TLR misevaluated the better infielder. In fact, by putting Ryan at 3B he understood him to be a better defensive player.
I find it funny that some rag on Miles but love Ryan--when they project to be basically the same guy in many ways. But when one is a "prospect" then "prospect guy" raves about him.
by beanocook on
Dec 11, 2007 12:06 PM EST
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Ryan
When I watched Miles at SS, his problem seemed to be his complete lack of range. I didn't see him as having bad reactions or a terrible first step but he just couldn't cover that much ground. That kind of skillset in fielding would work better at 3B where there's more emphasis on reaction. That's really subjective analysis though and if you really think that the Ryan @ 3rd Miles @ SS arrangement was better, I don't know that I can offer conclusive proof it wasn't.
It's also worth noting that Miles is 30. His skills aren't going to change. Ryan is 25 with room on aging curves for him to develop a little more power as he enters his peak. While the salary difference between Miles and Ryan was minimal (600K) it's the principal that when you have two players who, as you put it, project to be the same guy, there's no reason not to realize the cost savings of 600K while at the same time injecting some upside into your roster.
by azruavatar on
Dec 11, 2007 1:46 PM EST
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First of all
2nd -- Miles will make more than 3 times what Ryan will this year.
3rd -- we don't know about Ryan's offense, but we do know he is a solid, if unspectacular, defensive player who can handle both 2B and SS. Miles is an awful defensive player. He's decent, at best, at 2B and beyond abysmal by any measurable standard at SS.
Finally -- presumably Ryan has some upside. He may get better, being a young player. He may not and is possibly a marginal major-league player. But playing him allows us to evaluate that. Miles is 30 and won't get any better.
There's this myth that Miles is a "versatile" player. Being bad at several different defensive positions doesn't make one versatile. It makes one bad -- that's Miles.
Some have stated that he is a patient hitter. False -- in fact his highest batting average came on the first pitch of the PA. He averages far fewer P/PA than the avg. major leaguer. He won't gain more power or more range. Perhaps Ryan won't either. But he's young and he might. There are myriad reasons to play Ryan over Miles but even if defense were the only one, it's enough.
by houstoncardinal on
Dec 11, 2007 4:39 PM EST
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Players like Miles and Taguchi and Izturis
But so long as this organization continues to use known mediocrities that don't have room to improve and aren't a real tangible asset to the team, the Cardinals aren't going to see the post-season for quite some time. Holding par just isn't good enough for a sub-.500 team.
by azruavatar on
Dec 11, 2007 4:47 PM EST
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"using known mediocrities"
It was the bizarre lack of that kind of low-risk, high reward moves that I can't figure out. I'm not even "mad" about it, per se, I just don't understand it and can't empathize with the worldview of the people who accept "known mediocrity" as a positive trait in a ballplayer.
by SleepyCA on
Dec 11, 2007 5:37 PM EST
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Agreed
But it does seem like the FO has an affinity for signing buy-low, formerly decent pitchers. Wells and Ponson come to mind in that regard.
by redbirdnation8206 on
Dec 11, 2007 6:14 PM EST
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the Cairo signing
by the Tewk on
Dec 11, 2007 10:13 PM EST
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Players like that
by jimmybaseball42 on
Dec 11, 2007 11:13 PM EST
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at the same
Im not championing for Aaron Miles. Im not. I just dont think Brendan Ryan is that great a player--and this idea that Tony didn't give him an opportunity is just incorrect.
by beanocook on
Dec 11, 2007 8:04 PM EST
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Milest
by cariocacardinal on Dec 11, 2007 11:16 AM EST 0 recs

