not to bury cesar, not to praise him
i'll weigh in on izturis in a second. first, a proper sendoff for eckstein.
while i'm glad they didn't overpay to keep him on board for another few years, i'm even more grateful that eckstein was a cardinal for 3 seasons. what an incredible signing. on a $10.5m investment, he returned production worth somewhere between $20m and $30m on the open market. he may only have been the 8th- or 9th-best player on the team in an absolute sense, but dollar for dollar he was nearly as valuable as pujols and carpenter. and on that basis (ie, dollar for dollar), he was vastly more valuable than the player he replaced, edgar renteria. his 3 years weren't as productive as the 3 years edgar posted for st louis from 2002-2004, but he was nearly as good as edgar from 2005-2007:
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | WSAB | WARP1 | WPA | |||
| eckstein 2005-07 | 1564 | 216 | 465 | 67 | 8 | 13 | 115 | .297 | .357 | .375 | 17 | 12.5 | 0.01 | ||
| renteria 2005-07 | 1715 | 287 | 511 | 106 | 7 | 34 | 197 | .298 | .360 | .427 | 16 | 12.3 | 4.03 | ||
| renteria 2002-04 | 1717 | 257 | 528 | 120 | 3 | 34 | 255 | .308 | .362 | .440 | n/a | 15.6 | 4.43 |
almost the same player for 1/3 the price; that's value. it's too bad the cardinals didn't do a better job of cashing in the $15m eckstein dividend; instead of taking a chance on a potential difference maker like aj burnett or rafael furcal, they blew that chunk of change on safe mediocrities like looper and encarnacion. given eckstein's current age, shaky health, and deteriorating fielding, he wasn't a solution moving forward; but he was a great solution in the 3 years he was here. st louis got the best of his career; thanks for ev'ything, ya little squirt. i hope eckstein is able to find a situation that works for him --- although, come to think of it, one situation that might work for him is in wrigley field, where there's a hole at second base. . . . . .
now, to izturis. he's not a good player; we all agree on that. he's probably not any better than brendan ryan; most of us agree on that too. is there any reason, then, not to hyperventilate and rend our clothes and burn mozeliak in effigy? well, i'm not doing any of those things. i don't like the acquisition, but i also don't hate it; to me, it's the least of the possible evils. i didn't see any good options out there on either the trade or free-agent markets; there were some players available who might have been slightly less terrible than izturis, but they would have required a multiyear commitment and possibly the expenditure of prospects. none of them would have made the cardinals into contenders; they merely would have prolonged the era of mediocrity and reduced the team's ability to improve in the long run --- ie, they would have set the organization back. a one-year deal to izturis won't do that; it won't keep the cardinals from upgrading in the future. that's the chief virtue of this signing.
it's also the reason i've been advocating that brendan ryan get the job --- he'd hold the spot warm for cheap until a truly good option came along. ryan and izturis are pretty much the same player --- both in their late 20s, competent fielders, and capable of posting a .650ish ops, maybe .700 in a good year. so izturis is no worse than the option i have been pimping for several months --- a few million bucks more expensive, but there's no opportunity cost (ie, no good opportunity foreclosed because of the $3m expended on izturis). and even if the cardinals had followed my advice and given ryan the job, they still would have needed a plan B. i'd have preferred somebody like ben zobrist, ie a player with some actual upside; with a different field manager, maybe that would've been possible. . . . . but that's a lament for a different day. with izturis and ryan, the cards now have two versions of the same player as plans A and B; i'm assuming that aaron miles is out of the picture, and that ryan / kennedy / izturis will divide the MI at-bats in 2008. if miles stays on the roster and ryan goes back to triple A, then i'll hate the signing.
but let's assume that miles is gone. in 2007 the cardinals had two 30-or-over shortstops (miles and eckstein) who couldn't field the position; now they've got two 20-something guys who are at least adequate with the glove. none of the 4 players hits much. the team probably has lost a little bit of offense compared to last year, but they've made it up in run prevention; on balance they've held their ground at the position while getting younger and cheaper and keeping their options open moving forward. so it's a sound decision. no, it won't get the cardinals back to the glory days of 2004-05, nor even to the 95-win level of 2000-2002 --- but if that's your expectation you're in for a lot more disappointment. those days are over. the cards will get back there, but it's not going to happen in one off-season. to put this more bluntly: this is a terrible signing for a championship-level team, but a typical signing for a mediocre team. the cards are mediocre --- and would be whether izturis, ryan, jack wilson, david eckstein, or ben zobrist were playing shortstop.
i haven't had time to sift through the flurry of trade rumors involving scott rolen and the milwaukee brewers, so no comment for now. here's a short Q+A with coulda-been stl gm chris antonetti; here's an article on clutch hitting which documents albert pujols' greatness in big situations.
p.s.: godspeed, john rodriguez . . . .
0 recs |
158 comments
Comments
Hmmm
TLR is still the manager right?
I have to disagree with you here, while they MAY be similar players in terms of production...there IS an oppurtunity cost.
Ryan will be in AAA having to share ABs with Martinez and Hoffpauir, instead of being the backup MI for the big club as he should be.
The right move is to non-tender Miles, but it's pretty obvious with TLR in the fold that's not gonna happen.
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 9:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
that's the spirit bobby
by lboros on Dec 1, 2007 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming
I don't see much benefit to having two similar bad players. It's not like a golf scramble where you get to take the best of the two after seeing what they've done in 2008.
by Rob H on Dec 1, 2007 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed, there's no benefit to two bad players
by lboros on Dec 1, 2007 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The tone is different...
Apparently something happened after (or with) the Mulder trade that has made this organization completely unwilling to part with any player of value even when they have a glaring hole that needs to be filled. It's not a pleasant thought that the Tampa Bay Rays are more proactive about solving their obvious problems than the Cardinals are. The Cardinals have become so risk-averse that they're now inert.
by Rob H on Dec 1, 2007 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the options
If TLR demanded a vet for SS, the options may have been Eckstein, Wilson and Izturis given the team budget situation. TLR very may well have lobbied against a trade of prospects to bring in a better option for the club at SS. This is why I was against bringing back TLR given the stage at which this club finds itself. Even stranger, personality conflicts between TLR and one of his big three is causing the team to jettison a key vet. All speculation on my part. Mozeliak might be an unimaginative GM and therein lies the problem but we really can't tell with the TLR effect in play. LaRussa / Duncan are stubborn men not given to change ... unless out of sheer desperation when all other options have been exhausted.
by jjray on Dec 1, 2007 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What other options were there?
by Forsch31 on Dec 1, 2007 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
rob, what alternatives did you see?
i agree with your premise that the cards lack creativity and are too risk-averse. that has to change. but the truly risk-averse move would have been to re-sign eckstein, and they avoid that; i think that's a positive sign. moreover, shortstop isn't the position where the cards have the greatest need. they've expended two #1 picks in the last 3 drafts on shortstops; no need to stake further assets on that position. if they're going to take risks, i'd rather see them spend their limited trade chips on a player with the potential to develop into a front-rotation starter or a middle-of-order batter.
i think people are attributing far more significance to this signing than it merits. to me it's an insignificant move. we all need to save some outrage and despair for the winter meetings.
by lboros on Dec 1, 2007 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It looks to me like Moz is in a
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 1, 2007 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
GM Job
by rrvwmr on Dec 1, 2007 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's just a damn shame...
As I've said earlier though, I'm not completely against this because it plays right in tune with what I think should be done...play out '08 and hope for the best while training your focus on '09.
My comment was directed to the part of your post where you assumed Miles would be gone. That's quite an assumption...you must admit.
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if they offer miles a contract
as far the initial comment, ie what a shame it's an insignificant move ---- unless i'm mistaken, you (like me) have been an advocate of just giving the job to ryan. do you think izturis is substantially worse than ryan? if so, i'd like to hear the case; and if he's no worse than ryan, then why is this such a terrible move?
i haven't heard anybody, either at this board or elsewhere, propose a realistic scenario under which the cards could meaningfully upgrade at the shortstop position this off-season. maybe they could have pursued jack wilson; would that qualify as a meaningful upgrade? maybe they could have acquired edgar renteria or orlando cabrera --- would that have been realistic, knowing what the acquiring teams had to give up for those players?
basically, we're all just pissed off because the team has painted itself into a corner through neglect of the farm system. they have no options and no flexibility, and there's nothing to be done about it except ride it out until the returns start to come in on the kids at double A and below. until then, most of their transactions are going to seem shitty.
by lboros on Dec 1, 2007 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, I'll bite.
Alright. Let's just assume for a minute that they are virtually the same player (although the more I look at it, I think Ryan is better right now). What makes this a bad move is that you've basically just stolen a year of development from a young player who is under control for five years in exchange for one year of a veteran who isn't any better in the first place. No instead of seeing if you have a legitimate SS option in Ryan he's basically stuck in limbo. So next year, when we are in the same situation at SS, we still don't know what we have Ryan and we are sitting again with no SS.
"basically, we're all just pissed off because the team has painted itself into a corner through neglect of the farm system. they have no options and no flexibility, and there's nothing to be done about it except ride it out until the returns start to come in on the kids at double A and below. until then, most of their transactions are going to seem shitty."
Complete agreement here. The only option the Cardinals have is to wait on some return from their prospects and wait out some of these dead weight contracts of which we have so many.
I've accepted that we are any for a rough time here in the near future. It would just be nice to see an actual move made that you could say had an eye on that future. I'd like to see what there plan is, and right now it's hard to say if they even have one.
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A reasoned, well-written response.
by airhad on Dec 1, 2007 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
bobby, i'll agree w/ you if they bring back miles
so far mozeliak has cut ties with 3 tony / dave favorites --- bennett, taguchi, and eckstein. all are over-30 players with no growth trajectory. miles is 31, and i think he'll be the next one shown the door. if he is, then ryan will still be a 1/2- to 2/3-time player and will have every chance to earn the job for 2009. maybe that's a better way to go --- or just as good a way --- than just throwing him out there with no backup plan.
if they dump miles, will you be any less upset over the izturis signing?
by lboros on Dec 1, 2007 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In fairness
Eckstein was probably viewed as disrespectful for asking for that absurd amount of money.
and there is still hope for Taguchi!
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
bennett was a duncan fave
can't anybody give mozeliak credit for making some decisions we all agreed were correct ones? he has passed a number of important litmus tests --- it was presumed by many that taguchi and eckstein would be brought back to please tony, and mozeliak let them go. correct decisions. maybe i'm the only one who finds those decisions encouraging.
mozeliak still hasn't wowed us by reeling in an exciting player, but a) he only shed the "interim" tag 5 weeks ago, b) he doesn't have any trade leverage, and c) the free-agent market stinks. yet already there are people judging him a failure. forgive me, but that's ridiculous.
by lboros on Dec 1, 2007 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Furthermore
Yet, we expect our 2nd choice inexperienced 1st time GM to pull a rabbit out of his hat.
I don't see how this signing, or the group of signings + non-signings is any negative indication of MO at all.
by RedbirdRay on Dec 1, 2007 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
even further
jimmy says he's as healthy as ever. doctor's say rolen should be back (hopefully not the club dr's). mulder is supposed to be ok. mo says he believes that. then he shouldn't be making those "mistakes" he talked about. if (huge if) those happen, look at the club and think about an 05 jimmy, 06 rolen and 05 mulder. then this team would be the favorite in the nl central.
i know i'm crazy, but i don't really see what else mo can do. selling low doesn't get much talent in return and gives up now. not a great plan for the future and bad for winning now....i say don't do it then. keep them, and hope they're healed.
i'll be posting the recipe for this kool-aid later. it's delicious.
by birdsonthebat on Dec 1, 2007 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would agree
by chuckb on Dec 1, 2007 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Decisions were whose?
Eck asked everyone for a 4 year deal, Mo offered him a 2 year deal. Eckstein declined.
Does Mo get credit for not going to 3 years? I guess. Whose to say that they won't wait Eckstein out and try to get him for 2 again in January?
And Taguchi isn't out of the fold just yet.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Eckstein
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes...
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
CA....
The only question missing from the CA interview lBoros hi-lited was "Chris, how does it feel to have used the Cardinals offer to get what you wanted from the Indians?"
He used us!...no foul no harm! Hes an Indian guy, good riddance. Gone! He'll still be gone tomorrow!
CA is a smart guy, he used us and thats all he needed or wanted, but thew fact you'd rather dump on a guy that did everything he could for the team (rather than Chris Antonetti) is so not right.
PS: You asked for examples of your lack of rational the other day on the Brewers trade diary. Heres just ONE.
by cardschinmusic on Dec 3, 2007 8:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Before Izturis, a lot of people here talked
As for playing time, neither of our starting MI's is going to be so spectacular that TLR keeps them on the field for 150 games each. And we all know how he loves putting infielders in the OF. I think there would be enough playing time for a kid to show us what he can do. I'm hoping against hope that Moz does something like that. Resigning Miles would leave a very very bad taste in my mouth.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 1, 2007 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good analysis
As I mentioned before, the Izturis signing itself is a "meh" move. So I agree with Larry's take on this, up to a point. We will have to wait to see how this fits with the other moves that we have been told are forthcoming. If this is just a stop-gap move to allow time for the real plan to come to fruition, then that's fine. But if this is part of their team-building strategy then we're really going to be in trouble -- I mean like Pittsburgh Pirates trouble. Or maybe the 2007 SF Giants would be a more realistic gruesome outcome of that type of approach. So, I'd say the preliminary indications on the Mozeliak regime aren't so promising, as it appears to be more of the same ol' same ol', but it is far too early to draw any real conclusions. Let's give the guy at least one full off-season to put a team together, eh?
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why assume that Itzuris is the full time SS?
Now, that argument doesn't hold if they bring Miles back. But if Miles isn't resigned, then I don't have a major problem with it.
I also think it's safe to assume that the organization doesn't see much upside in Ryan. So the argument that Itzuris is blocking Ryan's development doesn't hold if the team doesn't believe there's much room for Ryan to develop.
For me, I'm not overwhelmed with the move, but given the 1 year contract and small dollars, I don't have huge problem with it (assuming Miles isn't resigned). It's a much better deal than the Encarnacion signing for example.
by Knish on Dec 1, 2007 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Izturis playing time
If I had to describe the signing with one word, my guess is that its for "stability." They want a "reliable" option that they can use in case Ryan doesn't make it and/or Kennedy's production doesn't return to his career norm. So, best guess, the plan is to play Izturis at short and Kennedy at second, and let Ryan back them both up. Or more likely La Russa does his normal thing and they each get 400 AB's. Hopefully they let Ryan and the Hoff have a real chance to win starting jobs out of spring training. If that is the case then this signing isn't too bad.
However, I think it is a fallacy to think that signing a decidedly mediocre player to a 1-year deal gives you stability. In reality all this type of thing does is put off the development of real stability -- that is, real long-term solutions.
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What?
Ryan will start 2008 at the age of 26. Cesar will start the year at the age of 28. It took Ryan 2 years of college ball and 5 years in the minors to break the big leagues (by the skin of his teeth if you ask me).
How can you consider him a "young player" who deserves a "year of development"? And, if you do consider him a still developing player, how can you in turn claim Izturis isn't?
And, in regards to tones and reactions...if you think other users don't notice a pattern of behavior/reactions and consider it when wieghing the merit of a poster's comments, you are mistaken.
by RedbirdRay on Dec 1, 2007 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
realistic scenario
It would have had a significant cost -- Anderson -- and maybe wouldn't have been worth it, but I think that counts.
by chuckb on Dec 1, 2007 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i agree that might be an option worth exploring
moreover, as i said above, the cards have already spent two #1 draft picks on SS in the last three years. if they trade anderson --- a 4th-rounder from 2005 --- that's a pretty skewed distibution of resources. then you create a hole at catcher, where we're already saddled with a weak hitter who's entering his arbitration years. if you trade anderson, then 3 years from now when yadi hits free agency you have no catcher, but 2 cost-controlled shorstops --- maybe 3, if jose martinez and/or brendan ryan proves to be worth anything.
i will agree that the cardinals could have made it their priority to trade for a good young ss. but freeing one up might not be as easy as we think. probably a better idea would be to go with a 6-year free agent, or a castoff like ben zobrist --- but we know tony wouldn't go for that. so we're back to arguing about whether or not they should have re-hired tony. i wish they hadn't, but they did.
by lboros on Dec 2, 2007 8:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nicholas Derba (22)
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=586
So there's a very good chance he'll be better than anderson AND molina in a year or two. Steve Hill can also play C and is a sleeper candidate for "yadier replacement unit". IMHO these guys make Anderson available to trade for a player at a different position that we need to fill today; we'll still have some guys who can take over for yadi in 2 years if necessary.
Agree on TLR ;)
by SleepyCA on Dec 3, 2007 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
LB
I think the best thing you said, I am paraphrasing because I am too lazy to cut and paste is... "the cardinals are a mediocre team and would be if they have Zobrist, Ryan, or Izturis playing SS" Izturis does not hurt the team I see Izturis and Ryan spliting time and I actually see Ryan getting to play 100+ games which is more than enough to see what type of player he may be. I think someone said it best about people seem to be thinking Ryan was better than he actually was. I think the Cardinals need a "true" SS. If Ryan gets hurt then Izturis can play full time and he is a "true" SS. If Izturis gets hurt then Ryan can play full time and he is a "true" SS. I did not want to see Hoffpauir, Kennedy, Miles, or Barden trying to play 70+ games at SS next year. I think I would kill myself if I had to watch those butchers play SS. Trust me watch guys play defensively and "true" SS move differently than fill in SS. Barden is not a full time SS by anymeans. I watched him play and he is not going to be effective playing many innings at SS. Kennedy is obviously not a SS, and Miles can do it off an on but not consistently. Hoffpauir by all accounts is not a "true" SS either.
I see this move as a whatever type thing. Not like STL was WS bound in 2008. Who knows something may happen later or during the 2008 season to help the SS problem. I am willing to be patient and hope guys get better in 2008.
by ICbirdfan on Dec 1, 2007 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok LB...
Miles is Tony's guy, and they didn't give Izturis 3M guaranteed to compete for a job.
Why is it wrong for me to assume that Miles will be on the team, but right for you to assume that he won't?
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
difference
by beanocook on Dec 1, 2007 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
bobby b, if miles stays on the roster
i think miles is going to be non-tendered.
by lboros on Dec 1, 2007 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you are right
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't
Miles should be non-tendered. If he can't find job my soft heart might be willing to invite him to camp as a non-roster invitetee.
Hoff will start the season at AAA, and if Kennedy can't get his shit together Hoff will be called up when Kennedy goes on the "DL."
by nybirdfan on Dec 1, 2007 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
soooooooooo
What makes you think that TLR has the say in whether Miles stays or not? If I was Mo this is probably where I make my stand with LaRussa: non-tender Miles and tell him he's stuck with a Izturis, Kennedy, Ryan for MI next year.
Dumping Miles is probably the best thing that the club could do at this point. It gives Ryan more AB's in spring training to try and win the job from Adam Kennedy, which would be a good thing for this ballclub IMHO.
by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Miles is a plus bench player due to
by Red Blazer on Dec 1, 2007 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
TLR and switch hitters
TLR is fixated on having switch-hitting bench players, especially on the infield (see Speizio and Miles). It the pinch hitting, lefty-righty matchup thing. TLR reportedly told Bo Hart in Spring Training several years back that his only way to make the team as a bench player was to switch hit (which he tried to do in spring to ugly results).
by jjray on Dec 1, 2007 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bat poorly?
by Forsch31 on Dec 1, 2007 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Miles...
He's flat out terrible and shouldn't be on a major league team.
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Miles
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What was his average this year???
by Red Blazer on Dec 1, 2007 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What was his OBP???
He'd have to have a .330 avg to be even mildly useful.
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not over the long-term
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll be excoriated...
I predict that the queasiness over the Izturis signing will be short-lived... because... by the end of April, he will have racked up enough 0-fers (while not looking all that terrific on defense either)that he will be g-o-n-e. Or at the very least at the farthest end of the bench.
Thus, B.Ryan WILL end up getting his chance. {I am basically in the pro-Ryan camp, but quietly so.} And I sense that even the Ryan doubters seem to concede that he deserves that chance. Repeat: he'll get it.
On the Miles issue, I can't and won't play the numbers game re him... me being a 'watcher' not a 'calculator' type fan. But I do not see Miles as desperate and confused at the plate the way Adam Kennedy is. Moreover, unlike AK, Miles is a switch-hitter and CAN (even if just adequately) play more positions than AK.
And I rank Izturis as a poor man's Juan Pierre (which is pretty frightening.)
In sum, I don't think our collective worry-wart energy is deserved re middle infield, as much as we should be nail-biting over Edmonds/Rolen, and, for golly sakes, starting PITCHING.
By June, our MI will be some combination of Ryan, Miles, and X. ((Bring back the Grudz ! ))
by the Tewk on Dec 1, 2007 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Off the bench when you need a hit he comes
by Red Blazer on Dec 1, 2007 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's pretty much my point..
by Forsch31 on Dec 1, 2007 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
Secondly, Spiezio is a switch hitter and even his weak side is better than Miles strong side.
by RedbirdRay on Dec 1, 2007 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A more precise statement on Aaron Miles
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
TLR is the manager
That is what he likes and in my opinion, that isn't the worst thing that can happen to the club.
by Anteus on Dec 1, 2007 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
costs
by sportsman on Dec 1, 2007 9:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yep
by rockin redbird on Dec 1, 2007 10:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
The real question...
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 10:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Opportunity cost
It's the best that could be done under the circumstances.
But I do agree that this is not the move that makes us a 100 win team again.
by Anteus on Dec 1, 2007 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lost opportunities
I am concerned about the Cards because they can't seem to break out of the mentality of investing in mediocrity. Realistically, we should look at 2008 as a developmental year, and therefore we should dedicate it to finding out if some of the younger players, like Ryan and Duncan and Ankiel and Ludwick and Hoffpauir, can play every day. We should also be willing to take some chances on younger players outside the organization, like Rule-5 draftees. When we make short-term investments in mediocre veterans, like Miles and Izturis, the opportunity cost comes from missing out on the chance to try out younger players who might actually be good over the long term.
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well said
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ss issues
by sportsman on Dec 1, 2007 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't really agree
I was calling for Ryan to be our SS barring a trade for a younger, better upside acquisition.
However, I do not feel Ryan has any more potential to "get better" than does Izturis.
Ryan is not young, he's going to be 26. He has 2 years of college and 5 years of minor league experience. Additionally, his 2007 small-sample ML statistics greatly outperformed his MLEs.
As 2007 could be considered over-performing by Ryan, there is greater chance for him to break out the chance Cesar Izturis could.
by RedbirdRay on Dec 1, 2007 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
meant to say
by RedbirdRay on Dec 1, 2007 4:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly what I am trying to say
It is equally probable that Izturis could revert to his 2004 form.
Either way is a plus situation. Both are possible, neither are likely.
There is now competition in spring training for the starting SS job. Just what TLR loves, and what we agonize over.
by Anteus on Dec 1, 2007 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really.
There's no upside. He's quite possibly the worst hitting regular in MLB this decade.
If Ryan put up a .340 OBP and plays solid defense, then you've got something that helps either in trade or in your roster construction for 2009 and beyond.
It's an incredibly shortsighted move to assuage the manager. How much is TLR worth anyway? We have to hand out arbitrary 3 million dollar contracts that make the team worse, just because he won't start Ryan? Add that on to the 9 million he's already making I guess.
by plh903 on Dec 1, 2007 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.340 OBP???
He's going to be 26, has had 5 years of minor league development and 2 years of college.
Nothing in his minor league career would indicate developing into someone with decent major league on base skills.
At 26 with 1400+ minor league ABs, I would say he's about as likely to have an OBP as Izturis is to top his 88 OPS+.
I advocated Ryan for the starting job to buy time and save $. In no way do I think he needs evaluating to see if he's a starter at the ML level. He's got no more development to go. He's there. This is it.
by RedbirdRay on Dec 1, 2007 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh
Which is essentially what I said. You know, the whole "lightning striking" bit and what that would represent for the two players. Maybe read a little more carefully before the excessive punctuation next time.
ZiPS puts the 50th line at .315 for Ryan. I'll bet PECOTA likes him a bit more. I'm comfortable with that.
He's already better than Izturis, that I'm certain of.
by plh903 on Dec 1, 2007 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
excessive punctuation
*That way, if lightning does strike, you actually have something of a commodity, instead of just watching some poor team sign Izturis next offseason. *
There isn't even a PECOTA for Ryan. Could be a coincidence, I guess. But, maybe it's because after so much time in the minors no one thought he would ever break the Majors.
PECOTA does, however, project an OBP higher than .320 for Izturis the next 2 years. And, his 50 percentile last year was an OBP of .327. Still sucks. However, you could make a strong arguement that Izturis hasn't reached his potential while Ryan has overachieved his.
I was all for not wasting money and playing Ryan everyday. He probably is better than Izturis. I simply cannot agree with the statement we should simply play him every day because he's under team control. I see nothing in him to indicate there's a hidden lightning rod.
by RedbirdRay on Dec 1, 2007 10:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was talking about
That's not a hard sentence to decipher, despite the comma splice or whatever. This whole grammar police business surprises me. Usually I enjoy your posts and you are quite reasonable. I guess you misinterpreted my comments or came off poorly. Whatever.
Anyway, I said I thought PECOTA might like him a tad more than ZIPS because he's listed at 6'2" 195 lbs. I assume he'll get a 2008 projection.
It's pretty curious that PECOTA expects Izturis to EQA above replacement level and OBP over .320 for the next few years when he's done that once. OK, twice if you count the FSL. Oddly enough, it expects Juan Uribe to be better than league average for the next few years (he's also done this once). Both guys have been pretty consistently below replacement level lately. I'm genuinely curious why that is, and to see their new projections.
I certainly think Izturis is more of a known quantity than Ryan. I do think Ryan is a better player, and that's pretty demonstrable. That neither have huge upsides, but Ryan's is probably a little higher. I also don't think either of them have an "internal lightning rod." I just happen to think that all players are subject to a good bit of variance in a given year.
Apack puts it better than I did originally in his response.
by plh903 on Dec 2, 2007 12:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My apologies
I also enjoy your insight and posts.
I think the misunderstanding was mostly on my part.
by RedbirdRay on Dec 2, 2007 4:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes it is a plus situation
I don't see this as making the club worse. It doesn't make it dramatically better, but it doesn't make it worse.
And what is TLR worth? About 2200 career victories. Most victories by a St Louis Manager. Playoff appearances. World Series Championship. And so on.
by Anteus on Dec 1, 2007 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gold gloves
The club knows that Izturis is worse than Ryan, or equally bad at best. The Cardinals have a sabermetric department that reports to Mo. I've made it clear in this thread why I think they picked him up and as such, I don't think Ryan has a real shot. In fact, I'd put money on him being in Memphis.
It's not really about that though. The club felt like it needed to go out and lock up one of the worst players in major league baseball before the winter meetings. I guess that's what you'd call aggressive. Mo said he'd be. I'm sure there are several possible reasons, but either way it seems like it stinks.
I do know the list TLR's career accomplishments. I have a lot of respect for him and like the guy. Not that it matters considering I'm just some alphanumeric pseudonym on a blog. I'm honestly curious about the thought process that goes into bringing him back, IF (and that's a big bold "if" for a reason) they are going to eat millions on Rolen, and spend millions downgrading positions because of his personal preferences in players.
I'm perplexed and concerned about a lot of the thought processes for the powers that be on the Cardinals right now. The only evidence will come in W/L over the next few years. We'll never have much in the way of exactly why. However, I'm pretty skeptical that those wins are going to come based on what I've seen so far. Yes, it's ridiculously early and all that.
by plh903 on Dec 2, 2007 1:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What if
by ICbirdfan on Dec 1, 2007 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
aside from eck hitting
by erik on Dec 1, 2007 10:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hear, hear!
by bgodar on Dec 1, 2007 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't it against the Nationals that he
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I forget...
stlfan
by stlfan on Dec 1, 2007 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It was
by Tarheel85 on Dec 1, 2007 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Boom goes the dyno-MITE
It was a Fox National Broadcast too. I wondered how the heck I had watched the game live.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hear hear
by itsalemmon1019 on Dec 1, 2007 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ditto that
by The Butcher on Dec 1, 2007 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my favorite Eck memory
by siddfynch on Dec 1, 2007 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
precious !
Thanks, sidd.
by the Tewk on Dec 1, 2007 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if that had really happened
by SleepyCA on Dec 2, 2007 2:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point on Miles
by sdrone on Dec 1, 2007 10:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Miles back?
No way! Already too many "so-so" players around, Izturis is giving the veteran presence needed to platoon Rayan and give Kennedy rest, so there is no need to have Miles around. Moreover the Cards need a leadoff, so the efforts should be in the direction to fill that hole (and pitching).
If Rolen gets traded, maybe pursuing Chone Figgins could be the best answer to cover 3d (even if he is not that perfect there) and to have a leadoff hitter (with Hoffpauir in the making...) in the same person, but I do not know he is someone that the Cards could obtain (it's a couple of years that his name is on the trade blocks, so he should be available).
GO CARDS!!!
by SuperSeve on Dec 1, 2007 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd have rather wasted $5 M
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 11:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
You'd rather waste...
I really never thought I'd hear that from you Hardcore, you seem to be one of the more forward thinking posters on VEB. You must really hate Izturis or something...lol
by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm...
His idea IS forward thinking. More risky to be sure, but definitely forward thinking.
Signing guys like Izturis, because...well, just because would be considered backward thinking.
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
whatever
I guess you think Hank Steinbrenner is forward thinking by that rationale; "Hell, we got a problem, lets throw a shitload of money at it and see if anything sticks..."
by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
Izturis sucks...you know that. Now maybe he won't suck so bad that you have to DFA him but that isn't the point. At the absolute peak of his translation he is still below average.
Now with the talent that Ramirez has, he actually has a chance to be a plus player.
To answer your question...I would ABSOLUTELY rather gamble the money on someone who has a chance to actually be good even with the possibility that he never steps on a major league field. It's not at all reasonable to even think there is a chance that Izturis can be "good".
Let's put it this way...The Cardinals are picking in the first round of the draft. The best available player in the draft has fallen to you because he is demanding a 5M dollar signing bonus. Now there is a safe pick there that wants 2M.
Would you rather spend that 3M there or spend making sure you've locked up mediocrity on your big league roster?
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Draft is different
by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know what Cezar can do
I don't know what Alexei can do, other than hit HRs in world competitions and play 2 of the most demanding positions on the field (SS and CF).
I'd rather take my chances that Alexei turn out to be a steal than have Cezar steal $3.5 M from DeWitt & Co.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess
by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cezar Izturis is one of the 5 worst hitters in
It's not so much about upside, it's about the fact that Izturis is terrible. And we'll be paying him the same as the 2B we comitted to for 3 years, Adam Kennedy.
That's how highly they think of Cezar and that is plain scary.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
comparables...
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, Seattle:
.284/.307/.404 OPS+: 88
Kendry Morales, 1B/RF/DH, Anaheim:
.256/.308/.411 OPS+: 86
I memory serves me, these two guys were much more hyped when they defected than Ramirez is, and both were probably more polished players when they hit the big leagues than Ramirez would be. I've read some scouting on Ramirez after he was brought up and scouts seem to think he's got a long swing (which usually translates to less power and more strikeouts after the jump to MLB) and isn't projected to be even an average glove at the SS position. If the best that can be expected from Ramirez is an OPS < 88 I'll settle for one year of a cruddy offensive and plus defensive SS.
by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who is going to play the plus defense
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You do realize
I'd rather take my chances with Alexei.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you....
His agent continually refers to him as a guy who "could make a ball club". Doesn't sound like he'll be getting that kind of money to me.
Here is where your point is made though...While Ramirez has the chance to completely flame out, he's also got the chance to be a plus player. Izturis is gonna suck, but hopefully he'll have one of his better years and won't have to be DFA'd.
I'd rather take the chance on someone who actually has a chance to make an impact.
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't totally understand the disdain for Miles
That said, with Ryan, Kennedy and Izturis on the roster, he really should be gone.
by itsalemmon1019 on Dec 1, 2007 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it is a bad signing
by Zubin on Dec 1, 2007 11:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Other options
Mo overpaid because he was worried 2 other teams were going to snatch up Izturis. Oh no! What a terrible thing to have happen!
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's a good point.
by Red Blazer on Dec 1, 2007 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If we are trying to model our GM
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Especially that move
by liam on Dec 1, 2007 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nah...
I don't see how having all 8 positions filled makes us more flexible.
Mo isn't dealing from a position of strength. That's painfully obvious. We don't/won't part with the chips to land an impact player through trade, and we are basically tapped out within our budget.
He's got a really tough job in front of him.
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Explain
It DOES give us more flexibility at the winter meetings because it's easier to deal Rolen or Duncan when you aren't also looking for a SS to play every day.
Mo certainly isn't going to move any of the young guys for an albatross like Tejada or Miggy Cabrera either, that would just be a terrible business transaction any way you slice it, and it's something that Jocketty did all the time which is part of the reason why our farm system has such terrible depth. You can't have your cake and eat it too, there needs to be some fiscal responsibility this season to leave money available to sign some of the possible free agents in '09 or make deadline moves next season for someone who can really help out the ballclub. If you're expecting a splash free agent signing every offseason then you are rooting for the wrong ballclub because that simply won't happen in St. Louis.
by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK
Seems to me according to LBs last roster matrix we now are on the hook for about 109M so far. They always leave room in the budget for a midseason pickup. In any case there isn't enough money left to add anyone of significance unless we can pry a very good pre arb player which seems almost impossible.-
"Mo certainly isn't going to move any of the young guys for an albatross like Tejada or Miggy Cabrera either, that would just be a terrible business transaction any way you slice it, and it's something that Jocketty did all the time which is part of the reason why our farm system has such terrible depth. You can't have your cake and eat it too, there needs to be some fiscal responsibility this season to leave money available to sign some of the possible free agents in '09 or make deadline moves next season for someone who can really help out the ballclub. If you're expecting a splash free agent signing every offseason then you are rooting for the wrong ballclub because that simply won't happen in St. Louis."
Have you been reading any of my posts? How can you dispute someone when you are saying virtually the same thing?
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Then exactly
I hear you say that the Cardinals should be responsible in one breath and then say you're disappointed in what they're doing in the next breath. Well, which is it? As I said, you can't have it both ways and there are limited player options if you choose number one and tremendous potential for an albatross contract or a depleted farm system if you choose the other. It's not like it's possible to do both at this time. Either get behind what Mo is trying to do or jump all over his backside, but don't accept the organization's philosophy and bitch about it at the same time or you'll start sounding like a Cubs fan!
On to payroll...lb's projected roster matrix includes Rolen's contract, and it is obvious that they are trying to move him so that would provide some type of relief depending on what the Cards get back in return. That would also open up even more payroll in the next two years to make some major moves in 2009 or 2010, which is why I advocate trying to move him as a salary dump simply because it gives them better options and more flexibility down the road. I would not move him if we end up paying a significant portion of his salary ($6 million or more) or if we offload the salary but can't pick up any value in return. To this end I think a deal like Capuano/Hall for Rolen/Reyes/PTBNL/salary relief is a good deal for both sides. Especially if Hall can play a good SS or 3B or the Cards can play him at short and sign a stopgap guy like Lamb to play 3rd.
I don't think that we're too far apart in our differences, and I think you have some good insights when you aren't just bitching...lol! I would like to see the Cardinals open up the checkbook a little bit, but lets make sure that there is value to be had before getting on the hook for big contracts that are tough to shed. Currently the Cards only have three contracts that are tough to trade for value, Rolen, Carp, and Encarnacion; all because of injury concerns that the ballclub really can't control. Everybody else could be dealt or packaged in a deal without causing night sweats from the other side. There are a lot of checkbook baseball teams that can't say that...(see Yankess, Red Sox, Cubs, Orioles) Hopefully the farm system begins to fill out a bit as well which will give the front office even more options.
In summary, I think Mo has some decent options to look at this offseason, and he does have a bit of negotiating strength although not as much as other clubs with the same needs as ours. If there is truly as much interest in Rolen as has been reported on ESPN and mlbtraderumors than I think Mo's got some work ahead of him to find a good deal that's a good fit for Scotty as well.
by fourstick on Dec 1, 2007 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, no
Still have $12.6 M to spend and that's without trading Braden Looper. Trade Looper, you have $18.1 M to spend on 2 SPs and a RH OF bat.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Relax HL,
by Zubin on Dec 1, 2007 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Goes to show...
It's December and we are already hoping that we can trade our starting SS for a bucket of balls at the trade deadline.
Priceless!!!
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am glad someone noticed the humor
by Zubin on Dec 1, 2007 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed..
by wwbd on Dec 1, 2007 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Alexi Ramirez?
by Yield on Dec 1, 2007 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
TLR DUI Video
The video is widely available, and I don't object to the exercise of editorial control on the website.
But I thought I'd comment on the humanitarian impulse to censor the video. Personally, my reaction to the video was mostly disappointment and a bit of anger. Tony appeared unbelievably intoxicated and completely unfit to drive. In my view, a man of his stature should bear the consequences of his poor choices, which in his case include a good deal of embarrassment. I also wish he would have been more appropriately contrite about the incident.
To err is human, of course. And Tony's infraction is forgivable. Fortunately, no one was physically injured. But forgiveness requires the appropriate apology, and I haven't heard that yet.
Until then, I don't mind him eating a bit of crow over this.
by Titus Pullo on Dec 1, 2007 1:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i took it down
by lboros on Dec 1, 2007 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I posted a link to the video the other day......
I don't know if it is still up or not but if my post is the one being brought up I am terribly sorry.
I certainly didn't post it to offend Larry or anyone else for that matter.
My apologies.
by Pujols for MVP on Dec 1, 2007 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He did
by rockin redbird on Dec 1, 2007 6:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
They just paid $3 million to downgrade at shortstop. It doesn't really matter in terms of wins, but this isn't something that a smart organization does. Gotta wonder who's pulling the strings.
If they want to wave the white flag or look for lightning in a bottle, they should do it with the guy that they have under control for five years, not the .295 OBP-for-the-entirety-of-his-professional-career mercenary that leaves after next season.
Anyway, saying that Tony LaRussa is making this team worse will probably piss a lot of people off, but ever move they are making or talking about making smacks of who he likes/dislikes ... eating Rolen's salary, dumping Reyes, refusing to give a better player in Ryan the SS position, Dave likes Pineiero, just DFAing one of the better hitters on the roster ...
by plh903 on Dec 1, 2007 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
OBP
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mo...
We'll see how the Miles situation plays out...if he stays....
A. Mo is really stupid, and was a terrible hire.
B. Tony is calling all the shots and Mo was a terrible hire.
This team has been making moves for quite some time now that reek of stupidity.
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Miles gets dumped...
Who knows, maybe you are right now.
Taguchi, Bennet Eck all gone. That was the right thing to do.
If Miles is shown the door even better.
I've said repeatedly that they have to wait for prospects to be ready and dead money to come off the books.
My lack of confidence in current Cardinal leadership is based on what past leadership has done which probably isn't fair.
I won't pass final judgement until next offseason when the oppurtunity to improve will be there.
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did anyone
by boog on Dec 1, 2007 2:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ryan has options, correct?
And, without signing another SS, we have Miles as our only SS backup option.
We really needed a little depth here.
I would like to see another SS with upside added. If so, Ryan can go back to "developing" his old self in AAA. If not, we at least have a back up SS better than Miles should Ryan/Izturis get lame.
by RedbirdRay on Dec 1, 2007 3:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
plan for the future?
this is talked about everyday around here. i don't know why people are still wondering what our plan is. you're not going to learn anything significant about Mo's tenure until next off season. That's when our farm system will contribute MLB ready players and we will lots of payroll coming off the books. Then we will see if the cards management has learned anything.
i like the things i've seen do far.
by FutureMan on Dec 1, 2007 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Anderson could fetch a King's ransom
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 1, 2007 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the market for Anderson
by jjray on Dec 1, 2007 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know what -I DON'T want to trade
by jillsinmo on Dec 1, 2007 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hey jill
give him a year at AAA, and then see where you are
and if down the road we want to keep him and yadi, move anderson off catcher; i could see him at third, maybe second, or if he displays some power a corner outfield spot
by bigcardsfan5 on Dec 2, 2007 1:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just Imagine...
by bobbyballgame1 on Dec 1, 2007 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Planning for the future
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Itzuris/Ryan better at SS than Eckstein/Miles
Eckstein is better than Izturis offensively but worse defensively, and Eck has become very prone to injury. Financially, Eck is worse than Itzuris (length of contract, opportunity cost next year and beyond, and return on investment NOW vs. the last three years).
No other free agent shortstops in this year's weak crop is better than Itzuris on balance (offense/defense).
Itzuris/Ryan at shortstop is clearly superior defensively to Eckstein/Miles, and, offensively, overall, an Itzuris/Ryan platoon is every bit as good as Eckstein or Miles:
OPS VS RHP in 2007:
.751 Eckstein
.704 Miles
.689 Itzuris
OPS VS LHP in 2007:
.863 Ryan
.709 Eckstein
.664 Miles
What you gain with Eck vs. RHP (.062 better in OPS), is offset by what Eck gives up vs. LHP (Ryan is .154 better).
The best things about Itzuris is that Miles will probably be off the team, which is addition by subtraction. Neither offensively nor defensively does he merit a place on any championship team as a reserve infielder capable of playing SS (compare him to Oquendo, Polanco, even Hector Luna, whose salary was much lower). If LaRussa gets his way and keeps Miles vs. Ryan, then he will be weakening the team this year and he will be blocking the team's growth for future years. Miles deserves no place in the Cardinals' present (2008), and at 30, he has no place in their future.
by CardsWin on Dec 1, 2007 3:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
no lost opportunity cost
that might work with someone that has a great work ethic but from what i've heard about ryan that work ethic just isn't there.
by FutureMan on Dec 1, 2007 4:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ryan's not that
by plh903 on Dec 1, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why
I don't know why some people think Ryan is good. Izturis has been in the league for 7 full years. If Ryan was so good he would have been playing 135 & 158 games in the bigs as a 22 & 23 year old. I am not saying Izturis is great but he has seemed to hit some kind of wall. I think you can't call Ryan more of a prospect than Izturis based on age, I would say Izturis has/had more talent than Ryan.
by ICbirdfan on Dec 1, 2007 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Value (or lack thereof)
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
tyler greene
by herr28 on Dec 1, 2007 5:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Melvin and Rolen
Like the Yanks "we wont offer a contract to A rod" only to have it happen...
I wonder How long it will be b4 Miles gets the mIchigan job since today he said he was staying...
I guess only time will tell.
by punchinjudy on Dec 1, 2007 9:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I know I'm awfully late to the game
Eckstein probably isn't durable enough to last a whole season so Ryan would still get his 300-400 at-bats (assuming they non-tender Miles, which I am also unconvinced they will do). Instead, we've brought in someone who is probably just as bad as Aaron Miles for 3M. Holding par just isn't enough for this team. The implication that there isn't any other option strikes me as wrong as well. If the Cardinals want to compete in the next few years, they are going to have to make some trades. This idea that we couldn't get a near MLB ready SS strikes me as wrong. This move is completely bland and unimaginative.
What does Izturis bring over Ryan? What's the worst outcome to starting Ryan everyday? We lose 2 more games. . . maybe. At the end of the day, the point is that Izturis is a replacement level player that we are paying 3M to. Paying a replacement level player more than league minimum is an intrinsically bad move.
by azruavatar on Dec 1, 2007 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well said.
by apack on Dec 1, 2007 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
AZ, why is eckstein at $5m to $6m
i don't disagree w/ your statement --- "Paying a replacement level player more than league minimum is an intrinsically bad move." but to me it's no worse than $6m for an aging, injury-prone, lousy fielder. that's why i don't see any point in getting worked up over this signing. it's terrible, but all the options they were considering were terrible --- and the creative+risky options we'd all like to see them try are not going to happen w/ tony back at the helm.
another issue regarding arbitration --- mozeliak suggested in the p-d that timing was the driving factor. eckstein could --- and surely would --- have sat on the arbitration offer until after the winter meetings. he wouldn't be obligated to accept or decline until december 7, and since he's looking for a multiyear deal he'd probably wait until the last minute --- until after the winter meetings --- and try to get himself a better deal in the interim. the club contends that izturis had other suitors, so they were scared that both eckstein and izturis would sign with other teams during the winter meetings.
by lboros on Dec 2, 2007 7:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The timing thing is interesting
Regarding contracts, Eckstein's defense is bad but Izturis isn't more than a few runs better. Between the two, I'd rather have Eckstein's better offense than Izturis' < .300 OBP. I sincerely hope that Tony doesn't play Izturis in anything more than a platoon role but I'm not willing to bet on that.
The end decision is a tactical one for me though. Assuming that both players are going to be about as bad as the other, then offering arbitration opens up the option of getting us draft picks. If Eckstein accepts, it's not like the extra 2-3M he would cost precludes us from signing anyone else (since there's no one of value on the market). If he doesn't accept, then we've got another top 100 pick.
I'm not really worked up over this move itself (although I think it's a bad one) but I am concerned that it represents more of the same -- that question, however, is only going to be answered in time.
by azruavatar on Dec 2, 2007 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
re your last graph ----
i think this is the crux of it. if izturis is a sign of things to come, we are in deep doo-doo. some people are leaping to that conclusion prematurely --- and believe me, i can understand the temptation to do that. but i just don't believe that mozeliak is the total idiot he's being made out to be. i think he made a strategic (and defensible) decision to punt on the shortstop position for this season and direct his resources elsewhere. like ev'yone else, i'm waiting for his to show that he is capable of making a sharp, creative roster move --- but he deserves more than 5 weeks to demonstrate that. not every single move can be a "wow" type of move; so far, everything he's done has been pretty uninspiring, but i haven't given up on him just yet. as you say, only time will tell whether there is a method to mo's madness.
by lboros on Dec 2, 2007 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
money is not the issue
by FutureMan on Dec 1, 2007 11:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
On J-Rod
I get he was injured in 2007... but he's still better than Juanenc for a tenth of the cost.
by VORP is too nerdy on Dec 2, 2007 12:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wish J-Rod well.
by jillsinmo on Dec 2, 2007 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the memories
goodbye & good luck
except if you play against the Cards
by gdm426 on Dec 2, 2007 2:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs



















