travel day hash

by lboros on Nov 20, 2007 7:12 AM EST in News Comment 114 comments

i'm bound for st louis today, in town thru the weekend. i have early flight, leaving me not much time to post. a few quick items:

sean smith, creater of the CHONE projection system, posted his pitcher projections yesterday. according to nate silver, CHONE's 2007 projections rivaled PECOTA's in terms of accuracy; they were the two most reliable forecasters of pitching data last year. here's how CHONE sees the cardinal rotation in 2008:

	IP	ERA	WHIP
wainwright	173	4.01	1.430
looper	136	4.43	1.404
pineiro	135	4.47	1.415
mulder	95	4.83	1.537
reyes	147	4.16	1.320
thompson	121	4.63	1.405

CHONE bases its projections on batted-ball data; it derives a pitcher's rate of expected hits and homers allowed from his groundball / flyball tendencies. i'm not sure which (if any) of the other forecasting systems work on this basis, but intuitively i like it. CHONE sees the cardinal staff as comprising a bunch of #4 starters, which is about the same thing most of us would probably say without crunching any numbers. . . . . to be fair, wainwright's era projects to be the 15th-best in the nl among pitchers with 150 or more innings pitched; nominally, that would make him a #1 pitcher. and if mulder or reyes actually pitched like a #4, i'm sure we'd all be ecstatic.

mgl doesn't see mulder as a #4; according to mgl, mulder and mike maroth project to be the 2 worst starting pitchers in baseball in 2008 --- the same 2 pitchers tony moved into the rotation during the first week of september, with the cards just a game out of first . . . .

might the angels kick the tires on david eckstein? understand, i don't think the angels should pursue eck; i wouldn't do it if i were them. but i also wouldn't have signed gary mathews jr to the deal they gave him last year; they have a new gm, and there's no telling what they might do. they are a team built to win now, and none of their in-house options for replacing orlando cabrera is a slam dunk. the leading candidate, brandon wood, was shifted to 3b last year over concerns about his range. he also didn't have a particularly good season at the plate, posting an .835 ops in one of the hitter-friendliest parks in the minors; his MLE line was .212 / .270 / .400, and ZIPS projects him to a .660 ops, or roughly the same as brendan ryan. another in-house possibility, maicer izturis, was primarily a second-baseman in the minor leagues and has played almost no shortstop the last 3 seasons with cabrera in place ahead of him. erick aybar was overmatched by big-league pitching last year, and while he's still got plenty of room to improve the angels may not think they can afford to wait. chone figgins isn't a realistic option as an everyday ss. . . . . just to repeat, if i were the angels' gm i'd take my chances w/ the in-house options over the aging, glove-challenged eckstein. but the cabrera trade left at least one angel fan wondering if the team was thinking of bringing back eckstein. if nothing else, any mild interest by the angels could give eckstein negotiating leverage with the cardinals; he otherwise looks to be out of options, given the mets' signing of luis castillo yesterday.

as for the cardinals' signings yesterday: whatever.

at SB Nation brother site Minor League Ball, somebody's taking opinions on the 5 top cf prospects in the high minors --- rasmus, ellsbury, mccutcheon, maybin, and bruce. as of late monday night, jay bruce was averaging the highest score, about 9.5 on a scale of 10; rasmus was 2d with an average score of 9. you can vote in this diary at Minor League Ball.

david pinto posted his defensive ratings for left-fielders over the weekend. chris duncan was the 2d worst left-fielder in the big leagues, with only pat burrell making a bigger hash of things out there.

i'll have a short post on thursday morning. safe travels to everyone who's on the move.

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Random tidbit by a baseball fan...

Is that projection system pronounced CHONE or SHAWN?

Happy Thanksgiving!

stlfan

by stlfan on Nov 20, 2007 8:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

excellent work their, stlfan

i knew their was a figgins reference there somewhere, but you beat us all to it.

by willievinceterry on Nov 20, 2007 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan

What is that rating based on? It seems to be range but I can't tell. Also how much of that is when his knee was killing him and he could barely run? I would like to see how he was doing fielding wise before and after his crash on his knee (I beleive that is what caused that problem). I won't say he is great but I don't think he is getting a fair shake because of injuries either. Interesting that Ludwick came in the middle of all those, just a few slots off Soriano and above Holliday.

by StLHugo on Nov 20, 2007 8:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanksgiving

Interesting that so many of us who grew up in St. Louis have moved all over. And that so many of us VEBers will be back in STL for the holiday. Maybe we should have a VEB holiday convention!

Seriously, this blog is a way of keeping us all connected (I always like the Cardinals Diaspora name).

And, I realize there are many of you who never did live in STL (though I've always wondered how you end up loving a sports team you didn't grow up with) and some who still do live in STL.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

by raisin on Nov 20, 2007 9:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here in central Illinois,

I did grow up with the Cardinals. Have been a fan since the Garry Templeton days.

As a little kid, I got to watch guys like Tom Herr, Ken Oberkfell and Glenn Brummer play in my hometown when we had the AAA team from 1979-81.

by 26thMan on Nov 20, 2007 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I live in Springfield, MO

You can say I pretty much grew up with the Cards as well.

by saladdays on Nov 20, 2007 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was born in Southern Illinois

lived there until I was 5. My grandfather used to skip school to go watch the Cardinals ST in Cario, Illinois. When he was in high school, he got to drive Stan the Man from the practice field down to the mess hall. Later in life, he'd get to drive Stan 3 hours between conventions for construction equipment (he was a salesman).

I've been a Cardinals fan since birth. It's in the blood.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2007 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Holy crap

The Cards used to have spring training in Cairo? That's wild. (I grew up in Harrisburg, heading down there for Thanksgiving).

by sdrone on Nov 20, 2007 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Your last sentence leaves me wanting more.

Why was your grandfather driving Stan Musial to conventions? (And who was the "salesman," him or Stan?)

If you've got more stories along these lines, let's hear 'em!

by MdRedbirdFreak on Nov 20, 2007 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My grandfather was a construction equipment

salesman and Musial was going to speak at the convention. My grandfather was the one that took him to the convention 3 hours away.

And yes, the Cardinals used to run ST in Cairo at Cotter Field.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2007 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cairo Spring Training

My grandpa and Dad were regulars at Cairo spring training too.

Grandpa owned a tavern (you don't hear that moniker much anymore) north of Cairo (Dongola)...in those days, the Cardinal marketing department made the rounds to all the taverns - saying thanks in person for selling Budweiser and handing out Cardinal goodies (calendars, schedules, beer signs, etc) as a way of saying thanks

Helps understand how Cardinal Nation was built on such a solid foundation as I suspect they did that all over IL, IA, KY, MO, AR and beyond.

by Hinkster on Nov 20, 2007 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you miss "taverns"

spend more time in southeast Indiana ;).

"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill

by lordsummer on Nov 21, 2007 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My grandparents

knew Stan the Man back in the 40s and 50s(and yes, he knew them, too), when they would spend the NY winters in St. Pete. In fact, I have an autographed picture that Musial personally signed to my father, that says "To Bill, Best Wishes, Stan Musial". The photo was obviously taken at Sportsman's Park, and he's kneeling in the on-deck circle and leaning on his bat.

by cardsrul on Nov 20, 2007 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

50/50

As a child, we lived in St. Louis. We moved to central Illinois. I went to college in Western Illinois and now work in Champaign.

I don't know which is better: living around StL where you can attend more games and see the Cardinal fever everywhere or, living on a border territory and enjoying the constant give-and-take with Cubs fans.

Both have been wonderful. I am blessed to come from a family of fans.

by RedbirdRay on Nov 20, 2007 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

convention

I will be at Growler's Pub on Olive for trivia night on Wednesday night if anyone would like to convene. :)

stlfan

by stlfan on Nov 20, 2007 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

may take you up on that

i heart growler's

does this mean boras is human?

by nycbirdo on Nov 20, 2007 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Been a fan since 98

Yup, I admit it, the McGwire home run extravaganza helped pull me in... but truly, the biggest draw is that my husband has been a fan since he was 11 and visited Busch II a month after it opened. It was his first major league game, and he saw Bob Gibson get his 100th win. We watch every game we can together, and truly love it!
I had a professor in college that loved baseball, and taught us (American Pop Culture) baseball stats. That intrigued me. I love the tradition of the game, and the Cardinals are definitely steeped in it. But just to keep it midwestern, I was born in Iowa, and my uncle is also a Cardinals fan, so there could also be a genetic cause for my adoration of the Cardinals.

Happy Thanksgiving all

When cheese gets its picture taken, what does it say?

by RosevilleRedbird on Nov 20, 2007 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Native Cards fans

aren't just from StL - thanks to KMOX, the Cards early establishment of the farm system, and the fact that they were the farthest west/south of any team in the bigs until the NY teams moved west. I am from SW Missouri and grew up listening to them on the radio with my dad. We usually made one trip a year to see them play in Busch II. Very fond memories of sitting in the family room listening to Jack Buck say "and that's a winner." Although that didn't happen often enough in the "dark" days from 1969-1981.

by wildman on Nov 20, 2007 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I became a Cardinal fan in

1946 when the Cardinals beat the Boston Red Sox in the World Series that year. I was 11 years old and lived in a small mill town in S.C. (pop. about 900)I had a paper route and delivered an afternoon paper. Every afternoon while making my route on my bicycle, I noticed that about half the houses had the game on (with high volume) and I could keep up with the game while riding down the streets on my bike. By game four, I was hooked and stopped delivering my papers until after the game. I stayed glued to the radio. When Enos Slaughter scored from first base on a single to right field to win the series. It was and still is the most exciting experience I have ever had in sports. It was talked about for years. We had a small movie theater in our town and I watched it on "movietone News" about five times. So many people wanted to see it that the projectionist showed it over and over for a week. I have been a cardinal fan ever since. I have followed most sports most of my life, but have never picked on being a fan of any other team in any sport. I tried to be a Red Sox fan early on but just never could be an American league fan. Just Cardinal and National league all the way. I have never been to St. Louis, but have watched the Cardinals when they play in Atlanta over the years as much as possible. I now get to watch every game by MLBTV. What a bargain.

by ridgesee on Nov 20, 2007 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I enjoyed reading

the "Why I Became a Cardinal Fan" stories everyone has shared. Here's mine - I grew up in Central Illinois, in one of those small towns where nearly everyone is a baseball fan and the population is about equally divided between Cards fans and Cubs fans. Even my own brother is a Cubs fan. That always makes for interesting conversation around the Thanksgiving dinner table. Oddly, my brother had nothing to say last year and I predict the same this year due to the Cubs' poor showing in the NLDS. I have always love the Cardinals and remember listening to the World Series on the radio as a kid. Good times, good times....

by cardsgirl95 on Nov 20, 2007 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From Upstate NY

Born in and still live in Syracuse. Went to Cooperstown with the family in 1968 (age 5) and after visiting the HoF all the kids got to pick a pennant, I picked the Cardinals because I liked birds, and have been a fan ever since.

Never been to StL or even west of Cleveland. Used to listen to KMOX fade in and out at night, drove my oldest brother crazy. My brothers were Mets and Red Sox fans, my best friends were Oriole and Indian fans.

Good times: watching the WS in 82 at my frat house, back to Cooperstown for Ozzie's induction (my first experience being around my fellow Cards fans), going to 2 games in Toronto in 2005 (1 loss, 1 win on Carp's 1-hitter), and of course 2006.

Man, I love being a Cardinals fan! Thanks everyone...

by Edbird on Nov 20, 2007 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dunc's defense

So at this point are we all resigned to Duncan's crappy defense in left? To me this is just another reason why we should trade him while he still has value.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Nov 20, 2007 9:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

larue

at least has some secondary skills.

bennett 2007: age 35, career OPS+ 64
larue 2008: age 34, career OPS+ 86

probably better than recent cardinal backups (bennett, the ghost of kelly stinnett, diaz, mckay, widger). what was the price tag?

by moboiler on Nov 20, 2007 9:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

never mind

...saw the diary.

by moboiler on Nov 20, 2007 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eckstein???

Ok all you guys that feel we shouldn't re-sign Eck, what other options are there? All the available shorstops seem to be taken. Lets see
when Eck came in 2005 the Cards went to the NLCS.
2006 World Series Champs! 2007 he was hurt & didn't have his best year, but what other Cards didn't experience the same? He's a proven winner& great for team chemistry! Lets sign him to a 2-year deal & get it over with! GEEZ!

CliffNotes

by CliffNotes on Nov 20, 2007 9:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ryan

With Ryan instead of Eckstein you figure to take a hit in OBP:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_st_louis_cardinals /

but much of that will probably be made up on defense as Eck is already below-average defensively:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/cat_probabilistic_model_of_range.php

and will only get worse as he gets older. If we give Eck two years I'm pretty confident that next offseason we'll be talking about how we wish we could salary-dump him (see Juancion, Edmonds, Kennedy). It looks like Ryan was probably playing above his head at the major-league level last season, but why not find out for sure when the other option is below-average and declining anyway?

by mikedallas23 on Nov 20, 2007 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan, for one

there's chatter that the White Sox may now explore trading Uribe. There are other guys who probably won't be tried if the Cards aren't going to go w/ Ryan -- trades for Ben Zobrist or Macier Izturis, others who would probably give us about what Eckstein could. I'd still like to find out what Brent Lillibridge would cost.

And Eckstein on a 1 year deal isn't the worst idea in the world -- Eckstein on a 3 year deal is.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I only can handle Eck for a 1 year deal. I can't imagine why he would go for a 1 year deal.

If Eck goes I agree that Ryan is obviously the best and probably only option within the system to play SS. Now I don't think Ryan is that good, but he can play SS for 1 year and see if a better option comes up. I would prefer to find a MLB ready SS not a Zobrist type.

Now the only thing worse than giving Eck 2-3 years is actually trading for Juan Uribe!!!!

WOW if you don't like ECK then Juan will really piss you off.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 20, 2007 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Juan would be on a 1 year deal

it's still better than Eck on a 2-3 year deal.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And he's STILL make me mad

n/t

by sdrone on Nov 20, 2007 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Offer him arbitration

If he takes it, you get him for one year. If he doesn't, you get draft picks. It's really the way to go.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Nov 20, 2007 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good call

Why is STL even messing with ECK? How many teams are still looking for a SS?

If the Cardinals go with Ryan as the staring SS next year who is his back up? Is there a player in the entire system who is close enough to being ready to play SS at the MLB level. I guess the natural back up would be Miles which is kind of scary. I don't mind Miles at SS but not 100+ games at SS.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 20, 2007 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well,

unless tony continues his weird let's-play-miles-all-the-time trend, 100+ games is not a backup. ryan is young and shouldn't need time off for chronic things - barring a real, new injury, he should be good for 145+ games.

does this mean boras is human?

by nycbirdo on Nov 20, 2007 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More Cardinal PMR numbers

So far, Albert is still #1 among everyday 1st basemen, Juancion is 4th-worst among RF-ers (Ankiel not rated), Rolen was slightly above average at 3B, Kennedy and Miles both are mid-bottom at 2B, Edmonds is right around average in CF, and Eckstein is mid-bottom at SS. As a team the Cardinals came in 21st.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/cat_probabilistic_model_of_range.php

I'd be really interested to see how Ryan and Ankiel would have stacked up if they had gotten enough playing time to be rated.

by mikedallas23 on Nov 20, 2007 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Taguchi

Did you notice the Guch was rated above J'Ed in center?

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Nov 20, 2007 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jed

Jed was really bad in CF this year!!

I know his injuries definitely were the factor. The problem was Jed obviously did not adjust his dept to offset his injury. He got beat deep on balls that CF were camping under on the warning track. He also got beat in the gaps a ton this year. He was just playing way too shallow and lost the ability to cut off balls in the gap and go back on balls that were bouncing on the waring track.

I hope Jed gets healthy or takes a few steps back next year beacuse I can not handle the defense he played.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 20, 2007 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is Mark Mulder really toast?

I guess that is the question. If he his shoulder is completely reattached, I don't think he'll be one of the 2 worst starting pitchers in baseball. However, if they didn't completely fix him once again, yeah...I could see it.

Is his career really over?

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2007 10:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd say

that if he really is that bad this year, then yes his career is over. It's a make-or-break year for him. I, for one, am not expecting much. I hope I'm wrong.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MGL is doing it strictly numbers based

Things like "his shoulder was hurting so badly the last two years that he couldn't throw it more than 85 mph" are not taken into account......assuming that issue is fixed.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Nov 20, 2007 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As much as I like MGL....

... IMHO, he's totally wrong on Mulder. I not only predict that he'll be much better, but also that he'll win the Comeback Player of the Year.

And if you ask me why, i answer: why not? He had the tools, the surgery should have brought those tools back.

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Nov 20, 2007 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he could be...

but unfortunately the body doesn't always respond well to surgery. It could be the best doctor at the best hospital with the best rehab guy in the world and if his body doesn't respond well....then he's toast. And looking at how his arm responded to past surgeries, the future does not look bright for Mulder. I wish him all the luck and HOPE that he comes back strong, but I just wouldn't count on it.

by eglasier on Nov 20, 2007 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eglasier

what you say is all too often true. Pedro had the same surgery with the Mets at roughly the same time as Mulder and he came back on schedule and pitched good baseball in September for the Mets. I hope We're wrong but I'd rate Mulder's chances less than fair from what I've seen.

by ridgesee on Nov 20, 2007 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't go that far

but I just don't think he'll be one of the worst 2 pitchers in baseball is his shoulder isn't still torn.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2007 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's the cuff, stupid

The track record of pitchers attempting to comeback from surgery for a torn rotator cuff is abysmal. If the cuff is fully torn, the career is almost certainly over. If it's a partial tear (like Mulder), history suggests that there's a decent chance he'll pitch again, but almost zero likelihood of reaching pre-surgery performance levels.

So I would not expect much from Mulder. He did manage to hit 92 or so for an inning or two last summer with a cuff that was not fully repaired, but he's got a long way to go to be effective in ML again.

by Hungry Jack on Nov 21, 2007 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

These numbers...

...confirm my intuitive opinion that the Cards gotta get another pitcher; and they'll likely find a better pitcher via trade rather than free agency.

Eckstein ain't gonna get the "Julio Lugo numbers" his agent was bidding for... not from the Cards nor anybody else. The White Sox' Uribe may be available (unless they're planning on playing him at third), and I don't see the Angels bringing Eck back.

I wonder how the front office views the Cards' defensive abilities... with a "pitch-to-contact" philosophy, infield defense should be considered more heavily than it apparently is (given the current roster)... Brendan Ryan is (to my eyes) the best defensive SS the Cardinals currently have, but he'll have to work like a demon in ST to convince Tony he's got the proper attitude to be an everyday player.

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Nov 20, 2007 10:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Eck to a two year deal?

Ah, Jocketty is no longer the GM. Let's see if Mo plays this a different way than his old boss. I hope that he takes a different approach than to simply resign Eck to a two year deal.

The other signings were a decent backup catcher and a couple of dumpster dives. No big deal either way, although the dumpster signings were reminiscent of Walt.

Nuthin'....I got nuthin'over here.

by Handsome Jimmy on Nov 20, 2007 11:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

If the Angels trade for Miguel Cabrera

then they could try Izturis, Aybar, and Wood at SS and see which one sticks. They wouldn't need tremendous offense out of any of them and they would have enough depth to go w/ the one who ends up providing the most. And, if that doesn't work, they could always trade something in June/July to the team who signs Eckstein to a 1 year deal or to the White Sox for Uribe if Eckstein's on a long-term contract.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 11:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cabrera IS the goal in Anahiem

It is going to take Weaver or Santana + perhaps Kendrick to get him out of Florida. Thus the trade for Garland. But the question then is WHO plays SS...as pointed out here and by others the Angels have a few middle infield guys who could do a round robin in spring training to see who gets the spot...but he's going to have to cover some ground if Miggy is going to be playing 3rd for them, thus I Don't think Eck is even on the radar for the Angels at this point. Heck ?...they might go after Tejada too...they have the money and the owner who is willing to do what it takes to upstage the Dodgers....and that is always the goal for the Angels in L.A.

by Timbo02 on Nov 20, 2007 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Especially

Considering Joe T. is in LA now. The Angels don't want to be forgotten.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 20, 2007 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

those projections should be taken with...

...a huge lump of salt. if reyes posts those numbers or is really that close to wainwright in terms of IP and ERA, i'll do a handstand. he had a relatively low WHIP this past year, but the problem is that those W's and H's tended to cluster in one or two big I's ... a problem that surfaced repeatedly and seems to point to a real issue in pitching w/ men on base as opposed to being just due to chance and bad luck.

meanwhile, if mulder's projections for next year are based solely on his numbers from this past season, then they are essentially useless because he pitched in ... what, three games? three games during which he was (still) injured and hadn't pitched in over a year? there's no guarantee he's going to be good, but there's no way those projections provide and sort of reliable indicator of what to expect.

by willievinceterry on Nov 20, 2007 11:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Projections

are just that, projections. They're the same thing as Tarot cards, tea leaves, whatever, and they mean squat when it comes to the actual playing of the games.

by cardsrul on Nov 20, 2007 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why would you even say that

on a blog like this that anyone who's been here longer than a week knows is stat-friendly, if not stat-centric?

i would invite you to provide me with any mathematical analysis showing that over a significant period of time, "tarot cards, tea leaves, whatever" have the same predictive ability as the better baseball projection systems.

does this mean boras is human?

by nycbirdo on Nov 20, 2007 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

on the contrary

i'd like to see some detailed analysis comparing some of the projections made my strict number-crunching programs to their actual numbers (and to predictions made by actual humans).

by willievinceterry on Nov 20, 2007 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

see enos's post below

nate silver did this recently, i think.

does this mean boras is human?

by nycbirdo on Nov 20, 2007 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball Prospectus Does This Every Year

They print a piece comparing their predictions and those of other sites and print sources with the actual numbers players produced, computing correlations to report accuracy.

by tarakas on Nov 20, 2007 6:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I say that here

because it's my opinion. I don't believe in sabermetrics; never have, never will. If that makes me a bad person, so be it.

by cardsrul on Nov 20, 2007 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What part don't you believe

because there's much more to sabermetrics than just projections.

by kjblair on Nov 20, 2007 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i want to make one thing clear:

i do NOT think it makes you a bad person, or a bad baseball fan, or anything like that.

on the other hand, i'm not sure what you mean by "i don't believe in it." it's safe, i think, to assume you don't mean, "i don't believe sabermetrics exists," as in, "i don't believe in the tooth fairy."

you could mean, "i don't believe sabermetrics is capable of doing what it says it's capable of doing." namely, being decent-to-pretty-good at predicting future performance (specifically, in this context, of baseball players) based on analysis of past results. i honestly don't believe anyone with even a fundamental understanding of statistics can look at sabermetrics objectively and say it has no predictive value. perfect? no. but a hell of a lot better than random.

so i'm guessing - and hoping - that what you really mean is, "i don't KNOW anything about sabermetrics, and i don't CARE to know anything about sabermetrics." which, again, does not make you a bad person or a bad cardinal fan or the least bit unwelcome on the board. but it's quite a leap to go from "i don't know/care about sabermetrics" to "sabermetrics = tarot cards."

does this mean boras is human?

by nycbirdo on Nov 20, 2007 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It shows you don't really know much...

about statistics. It is a field of science that has been around a long time using established principles with a long record of working in the real world. Saying "well, it's the players who play the games, not numbers," is kind of like saying you don't believe in physics, because numbers on paper can't predict the behavior or real world objects.

Sabremetrics said Mulder was a poor player to trade for in the first place for clear, logical and sound reasons. Sabremetrics said Kennedy was a risky signing for clear, logical, and sound reasons. It's a shame Jocketty didn't bother to check the numbers before making these deals.

Yes, it is the players who play the games--but the numbers can tell you a lot about them to help you make informed decisions. In the above cases, they described players who had declining sets of skills.

Not understanding this doesn't make you a bad person, just like saying you don't believe a large metal object like an airplane can fly doesn't make you a bad person, and saying you don't believe in atoms or that the Earth isn't flat wouldn't make you a bad person.

by tarakas on Nov 20, 2007 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

It shows you don't really know much about statistics.

Wrong. Without getting personal, you don't know me, just like I don't know you, and I would never presume to make an assumption like that. This is the crux of my original post: the sabr/anti-sabr battle has been going on from day one, and people have chosen sides. I'm on the anti-sabr side. I have respect for those who live and breathe this stuff, and I expect the same in return. That's all.
BTW, I was a stathead long before some of you were even born. I just don't need a set of imaginary numbers to tell me that Mulder has been a bust, that JEd and Rolen aren't what they used to be, that Chris Duncan should never play defense again, or that Eckstein is, at best, a slightly below average SS who makes up for his lack of size and arm strength by working harder than anyone else in his position.

by cardsrul on Nov 20, 2007 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Tea Leaves and Tarot Cards"

Uh, if your way of demonstrating your respect for those who believe in sabremetrics is by equating them with those who believe in "tea leaves and tarot cards," to use your own words, you show respect in a very odd way.

I'm just, as you requested, showing you the same respect in return.

by tarakas on Nov 20, 2007 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just because

someone doesn't know you personally doesn't mean you don't have a gross misunderstanding.

There isn't really a sabr/anti-sabr battle. The non-sabr dinosaurs are dying out, just look at the way the teams have been EVOLVING. When you deny empirical data you're the one that looks like you get your projections from Ms. Cleo and Tea Leaves.

Baseball Prospectus's book summed it up best:

"In How We Know What isn't So, Thomas Gilovich noted the many problems with human perception and analysis of everyday events. We find nonexistent patterns in random data, extrapolate from too little information, weight events that confirm our preconceptions vastly more than those that disagree with them, and eagerly accept secondhand information as fact." - James Click

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Nov 20, 2007 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And, yet

the statistics you demean tell you all those things. Perhaps you don't need the numbers to tell you those things, but most of us do.

BTW, they're not "imaginary." They're real, and they're spectacular!

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

just for the Seinfeld reference alone.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Nov 20, 2007 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, you sure sound...

like you don't understand sabremetrics. When you write:

"I just don't need a set of imaginary numbers to tell me that Mulder has been a bust, that Jed and Rolen aren't what they used to be..."

I've never seen any in sabremetrics argue that the purpose of sabremetrics was to prove the clearly obvious.

And I've never seem sabremetricians use what mathemeticians call imaginary numbers, for that matter.

If you want us to respect your position on sabremetrics, it would help if you demonstrated an understanding of them.

by tarakas on Nov 20, 2007 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

Well I was quite similar to you in attitude about two years back. Then I picked up BP's Baseball Between the Numbers and had a eureka moment in the epilogue, which said something to the effect of "A combination of numbers and well-done scouting is a powerful one." It dawned on me that smart Sabermetricians aren't really a bunch of wonks sitting on computers making fancy charts (like Moneyball made DePodesta look like, even though he isn't) but folks who are genuinly interested in maximizing the potential for greatness of their employers or the game in general, and are more than willing to share and compare their findings w/ mechanics gurus who spend hours at ball games just watching. Is all of their predictive stuff perfect? Absolutely not. But is a bunch of fat dudes spitting into dip cups and drinking beer watching grainy video tape of some high school game in Podunktonville, Arkansas the way to go? I think not.

Both sides have a lot they can learn from each other, and the organizations that have sophisticated number crunchers working side-by-side with a large and well oiled scouting network are the ones who are getting ahead. The best example is Cleveland. That team has been pretty damn good for three seasons now, and its largely b/c of this two way flow of information that controlls their decision making.

by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 21, 2007 2:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hey ease up on podunktonville arkansas

i have family down there & the whole town is filled with good people.

i'm no stat geek. in fact # give me migraines.

BUT i see the value of sabermetrics even if i dont always understand them. they are a part of the game & a very good tool to use in evaluating a player. in today's game in order to be a successful franchise you need a good balance of stats geeks & people persons running the show. i think the Cards are behind the curve, but they are making strides to get the proper balance.

reaching that balance will mean the Cards should be a winning team for many years to come.
i think we all would agree that it doesn't matter how you get there, just that winning is all that matters.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Nov 21, 2007 2:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re Projections

I could not agree with you more.

by Hungry Jack on Nov 21, 2007 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

back to mulder

in a perfect world he is a number 2 but I hope he is a 4or5 then you could get a number 2 but who is out there that fills that bill.What trade chips do we have to get one and do you want to pay for silva for 4-40///?? ideas

by cm1000 on Nov 20, 2007 12:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

YES and No

If we had paid Suppan 4/40 we may very well have had the wins needed to capture the NL Central. I know that sounds redoinkulous in a way, but the truth is the market is what the market is... The cost of pitchers isn't going down. We gotta pay. Don't we?

by onebigdummy on Nov 20, 2007 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i disagree

look at suppan's numbers from last year. they weren't really all that great. better than reyes/wells/maroth, but probably not nearly enough to put the team over the top.

by willievinceterry on Nov 20, 2007 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Suppan

his SNLVAR last year was 3.0 -- 3 wins above replacement level. Assuming he wouldn't have replaced Wainwright in the rotation, a big "if" considering Wainer was the last one in, his 3 wins doesn't even get us to the Brewers, much less the Cubs.

If he, indeed, had replaced Wainwright in the rotation, the team likely would have been worse -- and stuck w/ his contract for 3 more years -- and $34 M.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Suppan

Soup was a pitcher who relied on guile, location, and most importantly solid infield defense to "get wins" (yeah I know, I know...just go with me here). Its no coincidence that Supp's results really picked up when Belliard came aboard last year. His Opponent's BA, BB allowed, hits, etc. were all about the same...but his ERA dropped in August and September, likely b/c Belliard was a pretty big boost over the Hectron Lumiles team at 2nd.

The 07 Cards defense was, well, atrocious is a good word I suppose. The Eckstein/Miles/Kennedy three way tag team was basically a randomly chosen set of two pegs that were stuck in the dirt in the general positions of 2nd and SS. Even Rolen wasn't as effective as he was in 06 due to the effects of compensating for his shoulder issues. The 07 Suppan's WHIP, Opponents BA/OPS, etc., were in line w/ his 06 numbers...but with a butcher squad behind him he was doomed from the get go.

To sum up this stupid long entry...I doubt Suppan would have done all that much better w/ the Cards than a slightly better Looper. And that would be for 10 million bucks. Thats too much cash for slightly better than a number 5-type starter.

by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 21, 2007 2:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pitcher projections

I am confused.

Wainwright pitched 202 innings in 2007.

So in 2008 he is only projected to pitch 173 innings? I guess we have to anticipate some DL time because apparently he is going to pitch about 4 less games in 2008?

Pinero, Mulder, Thompson. It seems hard to predict much on these guys. Pinero was not even a full time starter in 2008. Mulder made what 3 starts. Thompson pithced in so many roles his stats must be too skewed to even analyze.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 20, 2007 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

2006

Most prediction systems take two years into account so it is most likely using his reliever stats in there, I would expect more then that from Wainwright.

by StLHugo on Nov 20, 2007 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pitcher projectiosn are tricky.

Pitchers have a lot of noise in their numnbers, as a lot of their stats have to do with the play of their surrounding fielders, bad hops, flaky umpiring about the strike zone, etc.

So these projections are difficult to nail, especially for a team where it is not clear who will be playing 2b, 3b, and SS.

AS far as IP goes, in general, research has shown that when pitchers take a big leap of numbers of innings from one year to the next, there are some injury and performance risks. Wainwright's jump from 75 to 202 (probably his professional high in IP) is a pretty big jump. If you took 100 pitchers who did this, and if you set the over/under at 202 IP for the next season, you'd make good money taking the under.

by tarakas on Nov 20, 2007 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rollins

wins the MVP.

Why? Because ESPN said he would.

by VORP is too nerdy on Nov 20, 2007 2:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeesh

In my mind, Rollins isn't even the most valuable player on his TEAM, much less the league.

by TICY on Nov 20, 2007 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rollins

I dare say, isn't even the second most valuable player on his team.

What's with sportswriters and their crappy picks the last few years? Howard ahead of Pujols? Derek Lee placing 3rd behind Andruw Jones?

This is by far the worst though. JIMMY ROLLINS? Someone check me on this, but his VORP was like 9th in the national league.

by VORP is too nerdy on Nov 20, 2007 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry, not checking

it's too nerdy.

does this mean boras is human?

by nycbirdo on Nov 20, 2007 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

vorp isn't everything

score one for "intangibles" and not strictly looking at home runs and RBIs.

by willievinceterry on Nov 20, 2007 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

a modest proposal

since these awards are voted on by the baseball WRITERS association of America, I think we (the consumers) should demand that they change the way they vote on these awards.

The changes I would make are quite simple: writers should have to publish their rationale for ranking players the way they do, and then some other organization (baseball critics association of america?) should have the ability to strike poorly reasoned ballots from the record.

In addition, I'd bet that if we looked at it closely we'd find that it is a very small subset of sportswriters who commit the most egregious errors each year each year. It is unfair to the players to allow such a small subset of the population to have such a significant effect on players careers, so writers who consistently exhibit bad thought processes should lose their ability to vote in the future.

It's easier not to make the mistake than to make the mistake and try to fix it. -Mo

by SleepyCA on Nov 20, 2007 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

as bad as it seems

Rollins was huge down the stretch for them, and the one thing i Heard Keith law say and actually agree with is that if Utley stayed healthy he wins it hands down..thatguy was having a great yr til he got hurt...Im glad david Wright did not win it..

so you are all against jimmy, but tell me whose your better pick? I really dont care one way or another since no birdos in the loop, but iam really glad the annual David Wright for MVP push failed.

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punchinjudy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Nov 20, 2007 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huge down the stretch?

Look at Rollins month-by-month stats.

August: .296/.371/.487
Sept: .298/.333/.542
Season: 296..344.531

I wouldn't call that huge. His September was arguably worse than his overall season stats, and he took a hit in SLG despite the higher OBP in August.

Utley:
August (4 Games) .444/.524/.667
September: .301/.377/.496
Season: .332/.410/.566

Howard:
August: .266/.347/.505
September:.260/.410/.630
Season: .268/.392/.584

So the correct answer for "huge down the stretch" was "Ryan Howard."

And as far as the sportswriters comment goes....

If sportswriters were removed for errors they make, we'd have almost no sportswriters. How many sportwriters out there are utterly terrible? Seriously, one of them actually voted for Orlando Cabrera in the top 10 for AL MVP.

by VORP is too nerdy on Nov 20, 2007 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

considering your comment re:

not caring because no birds were in the race, i'd be willing to argue that pujols was a more deserving mvp candidate than jimmy rollins.

does this mean boras is human?

by nycbirdo on Nov 20, 2007 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A good way

to quantify how "huge" someone was is Win Probability Added -- how much does a player contribute to the teams' wins?

According to WPA, Rollins was 15th in the NL -- 3rd on his team and just barely ahead of Pat Burrell. He was behind Pujols, Holliday, Fielder and others who had no hope of winning an MVP -- Aramis Ramirez, Brad Hawpe, and Adrian Gonzalez.

I should add that he's 15th in the NL among hitters. There were also 2 pitchers (Peavy and Webb) who finished ahead of him in WPA. So if Rollins was "huge down the stretch", then he must've really stunk it up before reaching the stretch b/c overall, he was just very good -- but still 17th in the NL.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Holliday

Matt Holliday is overated as well. I don't think him or Rollins are Close to the best players in the NL. I give Rollis the advantage over Holliday because Rollis plays a position 10 times more challenging than LF. LF is the position they stick people who can hit but not field or don't really have a position. Holliday was the 25th best LF at that, and you don't want to know who is ahead of him on that list.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 20, 2007 6:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The 25th best LF in baseball?

Um, no. I don't know where you got that from but that's just silly. He was the best LF in the NL this year and, in fact, the best OF in the NL this year. He was probably between thte 4th and 7th best player in the NL this year. See Joe Sheehan's article at BP.

As far as defense goes, Holliday was a more productive defensive player than Rollins DESPITE playing a less important position. Don't like Joe Sheehan? Try win probability added -- he was 2nd in the NL

Holliday may be overrated. In fact, you could argue that he and Rollins had comparable seasons this year. Nonetheless, that doesn't make Rollins more deserving of the MVP. In fact, he shouldn't have even been in the top 3.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he's talking about defense

and Holliday was ranked 26th by dave pinto's PMR. By PMR he made about 8 outs less than the average LF while Rollins made 16 more than expected.

It's easier not to make the mistake than to make the mistake and try to fix it. -Mo

by SleepyCA on Nov 20, 2007 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you beat me

You beat me to the punch....

I don't like defensive stats all the time. It is hard to tell with OF.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 20, 2007 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, that's different

but, for what it's worth, he's ranked as above average by both BP and Bill James -- further above average and responsible for preventing 2 more runs than Rollins. Also, as for PMR, he gets a 97 when 100 is average. It's below average, but just barely.

Even so, it puts Holliday right w/ Rollins in the MVP race -- squarely in the middle of the top 10, and behind Pujols, Wright, and Peavy.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

stat checks

so Obviously i was wrong in saying HUge..heres my thing and it was hinted he did have a higher obp down the stretch...The obvious thing to me is that in the NL there wasnt a hands down guy this yr. I think the thing that gets missed when discussing howard is how utley and rollins and other set the table for Howard.

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punchinjudy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Nov 20, 2007 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So...

Are we all agreed that Rollins was a pretty poor MVP selection? That's all that matters here.

Man law?

by VORP is too nerdy on Nov 21, 2007 4:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OT

Despite the wish that Chris Antonetti would come to STL, I want to thank Bill DeWitt for not hiring or considering anyone like Ed Wade.

And apologies to Astros fans whose team will suck for years to come.

by azruavatar on Nov 20, 2007 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Word

by lightbulb on Nov 20, 2007 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

seriously.

wouldn't exactly be psyched if i were a braves fan either.

does this mean boras is human?

by nycbirdo on Nov 20, 2007 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't hold much against Wren

and since Schuerholz is staying on as President I suspect it's going to be more of the same. Ed Wade is downright terrible. He's in the same class as Littlefield, Lamar and Baird, imo.

by azruavatar on Nov 20, 2007 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

give the man his due

littlefield may be in a class all his own. he's like the HatGuy of gms.

does this mean boras is human?

by nycbirdo on Nov 20, 2007 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

and isn't it interesting that Drayton McLane also interviewd Mozeliak. That he rejected Mo is a point in his favor, IMO.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by cardsgirl95 on Nov 20, 2007 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well said

but better for us now :)

23 homers 71 rbis, yeah, albert's having an off year

by PujolsFan4Life5 on Nov 20, 2007 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Stats people are getting smarter

Those Nate Silver predictive accuracy evaluations are much better than one's in the past.

And let us all cheer the death of the correlation coefficient as a statistical evaluator. However, I would like to point out it's sort of sad that discussions like Tango's came out only this year. I hope the Cardinals' stats guys are beyond this.

by enoscountry on Nov 20, 2007 3:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Scotty Pods was DFA'd by the ChiSox

today.

He went from being their World Series hero to not even attempted to trade somewhere.

Clearing more space for Torii Hunter. If Pods wasn't left-handed, I'd think the Cards should give him a minor league shot to rebound from an abysmal 2007. But he is LH, an OF and was terrible last year.

Not even worth kicking the tires for. We have Skippy.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2007 6:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

dont shed a tear for podsednik

he is married to lisa dergan

i think he'll be OK

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Nov 21, 2007 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A Bit Surprising

This move surprised me a wee bit. Pods always seemed like the perfect Ozzie Guillen leadoff hitter: a slappy hitter who doesn't do any of this newfangled "drawing walks" or "working the count" shit, who steals bases just for the sake of stealing the I guess, instead of an aptitude for it, and who thinks bunting is the ultimate key to winning baseball games meng.

by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 21, 2007 2:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

Is there anyway we will get anyone with Reyes-like projections in return for Reyes? NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO!

Keep the guy unless we can get the value that a guy with his service level and projections deserve. If he flames out, I'd rather it be on our watch. Please Please Please!

As it stands the projections seem:

On:
Reyes
Wainright
Mulder

Too Rosy:
Looper
Piniero
Thompson

As for five #4s, I understand the comment from a projected results perspective, but my crystal ball says:

Wainright - #2
Reyes - #3
Mulder - #3 (big stretch I know, but I say circa 05 is going to back)
Looper/Piniero/Thompson - #5s on a bad team, middle relievers on a decent team...

by Lawless on Nov 20, 2007 9:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How are Reyes projections on?

I'd say you can move them over to the rosey side. He goes from barely MLB competent to team ace?

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2007 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just so we don't forget

Reyes in 2007 posted a 6.04 ERA with a 1.407 WHIP. He was inexplicably bad. His mechanics went to crap anytime he got into a trouble and his fastball had dwindled to the 92 mph range.

I hope he can produce at the level projected for him by almost every simulation run but he was outright awful last year.

Granted, he did show 2 or 3 games of good baseball. But I just don't know how a 2 pitch pitcher with an average fastball is going to get by.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2007 11:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shit I wish

He had ONLY dwindled to 92. Some of his last few starts were down in the high-80s IIRC. And his +CH? Yeah that disappeared too when it came in at 82 and his FB was 88. Talk about a complete disappearance of stuff.

I don't know what happened to that kid. I think that issue has been kicked around enough...But I definately think poor mechanics would have done him in eventually anyway and caused that drop at some point...I just wish it would have happened after he'd had some sustained success.

by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 21, 2007 2:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wish

somebody could fix his mechanics and either teach him another pitch or move him to the pen. Oh, well.

"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill

by lordsummer on Nov 21, 2007 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Double Whammy

Control problems suggest either the yips or an elbow that is loosening up, neither of which is good.

Unexplained velocity drops suggest serious shoulder problems.

What's more, Reyes had some shoulder problems toward the end of last year.

We need to dump him ASAP.

by thepainguy on Nov 21, 2007 10:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hear ya, but...

I have to believe that Chone, ZIPs, Bill James, et all have some idea what they are doing. And they are all bullish on Reyes. I am bullish on Reyes as well. Now as to the velo point --- that is troublesome. I am not sure if it is a 4 seam vs. 2 seam issue or if there is a structural issue. Regardless, when he is right I have to believe he is a potential #2.

by Lawless on Nov 21, 2007 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

mechanics

It is more a mechanics/health issue.

A 4 seam vs. 2 seam is not the problem. Any pitcher in baseball can throw a 4 seam and a 2 seam fastball. Pitchers mess with grip all the time. The only difference between a 4 seam and 2 seam is grip. It's not like arm angle or anything else varries. A 4 seam fastball is straight and is generally used up in the zone as a strikeout pitch. A 4 seam is also straight so it is used as location pitch as well. Lot's of pitchers use it when behind in the count and they need a get me over pitch.

I don't know who started the 4 seam vs. 2 seam stuff but it is really silly. Now some pitchers can not physically throw an overhand curveball for various reasons. When I pitched I could not throw a curveball, so I was taught a change up. I can tell you I was not much of a pitcher and I could throw a 4 seam and a 2 seam fastball.

by ICbirdfan on Nov 21, 2007 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

reyes takes to long to warm up

in the pen, as long as tony is here reyes needs to go for a change to help him and the cards he wont bring much but if a deal with rolen does happen he could be included to sweeten the pot..As for Mulder the best is that he could be a 4 put him between looper and pinero and see what happens the key is to get a frontline starter and we may not get one till 09..

by cm1000 on Nov 21, 2007 9:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs