Rolen Trade Talks ????

by pzonehitter on Nov 19, 2007 10:40 PM EST Comment 40 comments

With AROD back in NY and Lowell and the SOX close to resigning seems like the Dodgers might be taking the bait ...checking into what it might take to get Rolen. The Dodgers feel that the asking price for Cabrera might be too steep and are looking at Rolen as Plan B ??? I'm told that the Cards asked for 3B Andy LaRoche and LHP Scott Elbert. Sounds like alot in return for oft injured $12MIL a year gamble. If the Angels get Cabrera the deal might get done. The Cabrera deal could happen soon. No word if the Angels are interested in Rolen if the Dodgers do get Cabrera.

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Wha?

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 19, 2007 11:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

one word...

source?

2/3rd's of the earth is covered by water, the other third is coverd by Jim Edmonds....when he's healthy...

by cardsphan04 on Nov 19, 2007 11:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd love to hear that source too.

"Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a man can succeed three times out of ten and be considered a good performer." - Ted Williams

by WiscCard on Nov 19, 2007 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pzonehitter has a track record

he scooped the MSM (in a VEB diary) regarding the cardinals' bid to trade for javy vazquez two winters ago:

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2005/12/7/225656/165

so pzone is a credible source. that said, i'm withholding judgment on this report until i get some clarification. i sent an e-mail to pzonehitter, but it bounced back as undeliverable. so pzone, if you are reading this please send me an e-mail --- vivaelbirdos@yahoo.com.

by lboros on Nov 20, 2007 12:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

So wait,

the Cardinals actually tried to make that deal? Thank the maker we didn't.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2007 1:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You must be joking

Suppan, Marquis, Wainwright, and Lambert for Vazquez, Quentin and another D-Backs prospect

Vazquez is better than Wainwright and while Q is often injured, he's got a lot of pop. I wish we had pulled that trade.

However, the link provided proves nothing. I don't think this guy has good sources now or then.

by SpringfieldDude on Nov 20, 2007 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Javier Vasquez

5 years older. $11 M more expensive.

Is he $11 M better than Adam Wainwright? Would Carlos Quentin have been better than Juan (ugh) and/or Chris Duncan.

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see the Cardinals try to get Quentin now that he's value is probably way down but while Quentin is a great prospect, he hasn't exactly panned out into anything.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2007 1:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the recent mlbtraderumor:

kemp+kershaw for bedard" make sense in this light. If they don't get Cabrera, which is hard to imagine but possible, the fact that Coletti seems determined to trade his youngsters for veterans almost makes me able to talk myself into believing this...

It's easier not to make the mistake than to make the mistake and try to fix it. -Mo

by SleepyCA on Nov 20, 2007 1:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Angels seem to be closer

and have more players at different positions to move around. I'd be surprised in the Angels lost to the Dodgers.

by SpringfieldDude on Nov 20, 2007 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i wouldnt make that deal

doesnt seem like enough for baltimore
id want 3 good players
beddard is cy young material

Come on 2009!

by benstl on Nov 20, 2007 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope

that's true - and with the Dodgers picking up Rolen's entire salary.

If Rolen gets traded, I hope he does well (not at our expense). He really seems to play hard and care about winning.

by Toddius396 on Nov 20, 2007 1:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Me too.

Hopefully he goes somewhere where his manager appreciates gifts of Omaha Steaks. You know, I tend to grouse about him never being healthy again, but if we ever do trade him, I realize I'll miss him.

"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill

by lordsummer on Nov 20, 2007 8:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm stunned.

As much as I want to believe that rumor I can't. LB never said the guy was credible. He just posted a link to another deal the guy tried to call and was wrong about. That seems to me just a classy way of saying this guy is full of BS. Laroche & Rasmus in the line-up would be awesome. With Pujols and the rest I would be very satisfied with missing out on Miggy. Never thought I would say that...

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Nov 20, 2007 1:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why do you post all this stuff

at stltoday.com? Just wondering.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 20, 2007 1:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stirring the pot....

What's wrong with posting on other sites. I think it is a great conversation and true fans will enjoy the conversation. We post rumors over here from other sites. I didn't realize it was a one way street. If that is something I shouldn't do someone needs to let me know and I won't do it again. Also I think it give the site a little press. I didn't mean any harm by it at all.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Nov 20, 2007 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, he pretty much did

"so pzone is a credible source"

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 20, 2007 2:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how is this kid's shoulder?

Scott Elbert had season ending surgery. Is he still LA's #1 pitching prospect? If so this deal seams to good to be true.

I have said that trading Rolen would be a mistake. I feel a strong year is coming from Rolen, and we wouldn't get our money's worth.

I couldn't say no to this.

by nybirdfan on Nov 20, 2007 1:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

So.........

pzone's claim to fame is that he confirmed a trade two years ago that never happened? don't see how that's credible.

by bigJOE1 on Nov 20, 2007 1:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Trades don't happen all the time;

that doesn't mean they aren't discussed. The Vazquez to Cardinals rumor was bandied about by a myriad of sources at the time -- the rumor was accurate just despite the trade not taking place.

by azruavatar on Nov 20, 2007 1:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

joe strauss confirmed the trade talks

the day after pzone posted his diary here. so pzone wasn't wrong at all; he was absolutely right. the trade fell apart because the cards wanted AZ to pick up half of vazquez's salary.

by lboros on Nov 20, 2007 1:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK, so say this is ligit

what are we supposed to do with this info?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Nov 21, 2007 1:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cautiously optomistic

I don't want the see rolen leave, especially under such petty circumstances. my biggest fear is that he will be moved for pennies on the dollar in light of his issues.

this isn't the first time rolen has been connected to the dodgers. early in the season there was an idea floated that the dodgers were looking and the cardinals were asking for betemit, plus kemp or ethier. obviously this never happened, but there's enough reality here to pass the smell test.

the dodgers are enamored with veterans, don't seem sold on laroche for whatever reason and have been connected to rolen before. elbert seems like a legitimate target, he's left handed, was highly touted before the shoulder, and is from joplin mo.

it all seems a little much for rolen, but i'm cautiously optimistic that they don't plan on giving him away for little to nothing.

"My cat's breath smells like cat food"

by Dave Barry on Nov 20, 2007 3:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

we would have

to pony up some cash 3 - 4 mill a year??

by cm1000 on Nov 20, 2007 9:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fair Deal

LaRoche and Elbert is a fair deal. A healthy Rolen for 3 years probably skews it in favor of the Dodgers. Why do people over-value the prospects from other organizations so much. Most prospects turn out to be busts. This is why the Dodgers want veterans and this is why LaRussa always wants veterans. Betting on prospects is risky. This deal is trading injury risk for unknown (Laroche) and injury (Elbert) risk.

Think of it this way. Cabrera is going to net the Marlins 4 prospects. Is Cabrera twice as good as Rolen? Only if Rolen is injured for much of the deal. (Plus, you get 3 years of Rolen and only 2 of Cabrera) With Miggy's weight issues, don't be shocked if his health isn't so great over the next few years.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Nov 20, 2007 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

This could potentially be a good deal for both sides. The Dodgers really don't need young starting pitching, especially young starting pitching with an injury history, considering they have Penny, Lowe, Schmidt, and Billingsley as their top four. When healthy that's easily the best staff in the National League -- there's absolutely no comparison. After looking at a lot of Dodger websites over the past week they seem to really be down on LaRoche and I can't figure out why -- he projects to be a .290+ hitter in the big leagues with decent power and a pretty good glove as well.

I don't think LA is a serious contender for Miggy because they don't want to bet the whole farm on one guy, and they need good defensive players on the infield with the pitching staff that they have. They badly want someone who can hit in the 3,4,5 hole and play solid defense on the right side and Rolen fits that bill when he is healthy.

The deal makes sense for the Cardinals because it would help them get younger, which they really need to do, and they would also get a top left handed pitching prospect -- which really isn't present at this time in the minor league system. LaRoche could be a good 2,5, or 6 hitter for a long time, would be under team control for 5+ years, and not be arbitration eligible for 3 more years. Even if the Cards pick up $4 million of Rolen's salary every year this is an upgrade in my opinion because Rolen will be off the books before LaRoche is eligible for arb, and that would free up another $8 million per season to go out and get a decent FA SS, SP, or OF. I think this also gives St. Louis a solid core of quality talent for the next 4 years with Albert, Rasmus, and LaRoche.

I think if this deal is out there than the Cards have to pull the trigger. Rolen would certainly waive his no-trade to go play for Joe Torre would he not?

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Nov 20, 2007 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

disagree

I disagree. While painting with broad stroke, you might be able to say a prospect is an unknown and a risk.

However, LaRoche has over 1850 minor league PAs with greater than a .900 OPS. He's pretty predictable if you ask me.

I'd say he's almost as predictable as most major leagues. Anyone is technically a risk. LaRoche seems less risky than Rolen, really.

by RedbirdRay on Nov 20, 2007 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreement

John Gall, Geronimo Pena, Anthony Reyes, Jim Lindeman, Scott Seabol and Tagg Bozied would surely agree with you. Probably Skip Schumaker also.

Some make the jump, some don't. More don't than do. Calling LaRoche predictable without major league at bats is something I wouldn't agree with.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Nov 20, 2007 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

C'mon Elvis

you made some valid points but squandered all of them by comparing LaRoche and Elbert to people like Gall, Pena, and Seabol. Seabol and Bozied have been career minor-leaguers. None of the others, Reyes included, was ever considered anywhere near the type of prospect that LaRoche and Elbert have been.

Elbert's had some injury issues, to be sure. But if what you say about "most prospects being busts" is true, how do you explain the sizable number of major-leaguers who are younger than 30? In fact, weren't Pujols and Rolen once prospects? They didn't magically appear at the major-league level as seasoned vets.

There is risk w/ youngsters, just as there is risk w/ 32 year olds who are coming off their 3rd shoulder surgery. Unfortunately, your decent argument was destroyed by the poor comparison to the marginal prospects you listed.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't disagree

with most of what you're saying here, but I gotta defend Tagg Bozied. Tagg led the padres system in HR in his first pro season (2002), was ranked ahead of jason bay and josh barfield in the padres org in 2003 and then proceeded to hit 14 home runs in 46 games in 2004, before hurting himself celebrating a walk-off grand slam. He was flying about as high as a prospect can when he got hurt. He was blocked by Klesko and Nevin or else he would have been in the big leagues in 2003. source

Another good comparison to LaRoche would be Zobrist. Excellent minor league career (OBP never under .400), followed by awful MLB career (so far). I would trade Rolen for LaRoche straight up- don't get me wrong- but there is definitely a lot of risk there.

It's easier not to make the mistake than to make the mistake and try to fix it. -Mo

by SleepyCA on Nov 20, 2007 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're correct

that Bozied was, at one time, a very good prospect. I was simply talking about when he became part of the Cards' organization. At that time, he was a 4-A player who became a space filler at Memphis with no real shot of ever being a Cardinal.

And I would put LaRoche well ahead of Zobrist. Zobrist came to TB from Houston but he was never one of Houston's top prospects. He was a top 10 guy but more around 7-8 and never really highly thought of as a hitter. LaRoche has been a top-100 and top-50 prospect in all of baseball -- and a top prospect in a much stronger Dodgers' organization.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LaRoche vs. Zobrist

Isn't much of a comparison.

LaRoche's career minor league OPS is 20 points higher, and that is dragged down by a dreadful turn at Vero Beach when he was 20 years old, the same place he pretty much made his private playground the next season. He's hit 90 minor league home runs, and in 06 and 07 he pretty much kicked serious ass in the minors.

Zobrist put up solid minor league numbers, but he's only poked out 19 homers and posted an .881 OPS, which was inflated by a 971 at Salem in 42 games in high-A.

I agree that prospects do flame out...But I think LaRoche is a player worth taking that risk on in a Rolen for LaRoche straight up trade (let alone if the Dodgers wanted to throw in another guy). Hell, if you look at it LaRoche's minor league numbers were better than Rolen's too. And LaRoche is only 23 years old, so he'll be around for awhile. Really if Rolen can't come back healthy next year then you're stuck with an expensive defensive specialist who may slug .380. Why not take the chance with a young kid who has the potential to be an offensive beast?

by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 21, 2007 2:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is fun

To your points (Houston): You are looking at the guys that I mentioned after the fact and I just picked guys off the top of my head. I could go back through the top 100 prospects list every year and I bet 80%+ of them or more never do much of anything at the MLB level. So, most prospects are busts...NOT ALL, but most. Remember the Met's big 4 can't miss prospect pitchers...Only Izzy turned out to be anything and that was after a trade and being converted to a reliever.

"How do I explain the sizable number of MLB players who are under 30?" OK, out of how many applicants? Let's say there are 500 players under 30 in MLB. How many players have been in the minor leagues between ages 18-29 during about a 10 year span??? 20,000? So, about 50 a year graduate to MLB. And a lot don't stick. A high profile guy like Laroche has a better shot and will likely be given more opportunity to fail, but to call him a sure fire .290 hitter is pretty far out on a limb.

My decent argument is not destroyed because your premise was that Laroche will be good based on his 1850 at bats worth of minor league numbers. I was pointing out several examples, and there are hundreds more, that have had very good minor league numbers that never made the jump successfully. So to assume that minor league numbers translate to major league success is a fairly risky proposition.

That being said, I would be in favor of the trade, in fact, my original post called it a fair deal. Both parties assume substantial risk. Rolen makes sense for what the Dodgers are trying to do and Laroche and Elbert make sense for the Cards.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Nov 20, 2007 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I never said

LaRoche will be good, or a "sure-fire .290 hitter." I haven't the faintest idea and am less confident today than I would have been two years ago. You bring up the Mets' pitchers -- a much better example than people like Geronimo Pena. My only point was that your point would have been much stronger using David West -- another top-flight prospect -- as an example rather than some of those you listed.

by chuckb on Nov 20, 2007 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not a fair comparison

I really don't feel any of these comparisons are fair, however. Projection systems are beginning to show high correlations, especially with hitters, in predicting career trajectories.

I don't feel pointing to a top 100 list is an accurate depiction of the predictability of a player like LaRoche. Rather than look at an entire list, maybe you should look at the success rate of 24ish prospects with .900+ OPS over 1800+ ABs who are ranked in the top 10-15 of all prospects. I bet the success rate is pretty nice.

I would say it's much easier to predict what this kid with very limited Major league plate appearances will do over the next three years than predicting Scott Rolen's multi-million dollar performance.

I could easily spout of prospects who lived to the hype also. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are a couple guys who were seasoned nicely in the minors and matched well (or even overmatched) thier projections. Verlander, Henley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Troy Tolowitzki, Tom Gorzelanny...

by RedbirdRay on Nov 20, 2007 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stop using "all prospects"

I hate it when people lump pitchers and position players together when talking about prospects. The flame-out rate for pitchers is probably 75% higher than top everyday prospects like Laroche. Comparing Laroche to the Mets pitchers is ridiculous -- every one of those guys was completely derailed by injuries. Prior to being hurt every one of them could have gone on to be all-star/Cy Young type of pitchers. Same goes for Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. I think they both proved that they could dominate hitters in the major leagues, but the injury bug is very fickle for pitchers and both of them caught it (not that I'm complaining, lol) If you want to do some honest comparison, why not look at every good 3B prospect in the last 3 or 4 years? Here's a breakdown for you (minor league #'s only):

A. Laroche: .294/.374/.529 OPS: .898 AB: 1655

K. Kouzmanoff: .332/.393/.556 OPS: .949 AB: 1310

Garrett Atkins: .317/.397/.496 OPS: .873 AB: 2131

Ryan Braun: .313/.375/.572 OPS: .947 AB: 767

E. Encarnacion: .289/.349/.456 OPS: .805 AB: 2246

Andy Marte: .271/.348/.476 OPS: .824 AB: 2576

Alex Gordon: .325/.487/.528 OPS: 1.015 AB: 486

Gordon's is obviously a small sample size as he had only one year in the minors at the AA level.

I think you can agree that Laroche projects along the same lines as Garrett Atkins or Edwin Encarnacion, and each of those guys has outperformed Rolen over the last three seasons. I don't think it's a stretch to project him at those numbers. I'm sure you would agree that the Cardinals would be better off with either of those guys than with a 32 year old coming off an injury and making $12 million a year. I picked a sample of guys who have major league at bats, but I researched all the guys who were prospects and stunk it up -- none of them has splits as good as Laroche's in the minor leagues. He projects a lot better than Marte, and Marte is the only guy who hasn't produced at the big league level out of the players listed above.

"The Cardinals have won a World Series in THEIR new stadium!" --my Uncle Jim to a heckling Cubs fan

by fourstick on Nov 21, 2007 9:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DODGERS AND MIGGY

Probably will not happen. The Angels now have 6 starters and some prospects. They can easily throw several at FLO for Cabrera.

Rolen will probably remain here for the season... his trade value simply isn't good right now.

by DuncanDipper on Nov 20, 2007 2:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just assume...

for a minute that this rumor is true.

Let's say you do this deal, you'd obviously have to include quite a bit of cash.

How about...
7M in '08
3M in '09
nothing in '10

Would you do that? Would that be enough to make the Dodgers do it?

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Nov 20, 2007 6:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rolen

I doubt this deal is really out there but if it is you've got to look at it. I'm in no big hurry to dump Rolen but, with the increasing likelihood that we can't improve enough via free agents and trade for '08, this move would solve some problems. It would jump start the inevitable youth movement with at least one young player who's a year ahead of our top prospects. It also frees up money for next year's supposedly strong free agent contingent. It solves a clubhouse crisis and eliminates the risk of having an unhealed, unhappy, over paid, undealable albatross on the roster for the next few years.

by easy on Nov 20, 2007 7:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rolen

I think this deal could fly with a little tinkering.
How about this deal, Rolen, Reyes & Ryan for LaRoche,
Furcal & Elbert? The Dodgers have Hu ready to take over at short and a deal for Rolen would open up a spot for him while being an almost even money swap.
Furcal would solve our SS problem & add speed to our lineup, plus Reyes & Ryan are local LA products. The Dodgers need defensive stability that Rolen would add
and a veteran presence to a young team. Also there is
a southwest Indiana connection with Mattingly on the Dodgers staff. One more thing, the Dodgers have a good 3rd base prospect in the low minors by the name
of Preston Mattingly, yes, Don's son. I'm sure he would like to see an open path for his son at 3rd.

by KyColl on Nov 20, 2007 8:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm definately against trading Rolen...

but if he went to the Angels, I would be interested if we got Reggie Willits and Ervin Santana. I think Santana could really find himself in the NL and shake his "road rage" W-L/ERA numbers. Willits would provide the Cards a much needed source of speed and a legit lead off man.

However, we would probably have to sign Eckstein and still need a 3B, because Spiezio and Ryan probably won't cut it.

I think trading Rolen is the wrong move. I don't think we should be counting on him as a cleanup, but he would be terrific in the #5 hole.

With Edmonds in the 2 hole and Duncan in the 4, I think our offense would dramatically improve.