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Joe Sheehan: low end free agents

Sheehan did a great job identifying some of the better potential bargains in the free agent market. lboros had mentioned lieber about a month or so ago, so does Sheehan now.

http://tinyurl.com/ys47d4 (subscription)

Jon Lieber: His season was ended by a foot injury, not an arm one. He was having your basic Jon Lieber season up to that point, throwing just shy of six innings a start, and striking out 2.5 times the guys he was walking. He'd be a great pickup for a team that plays where fly balls go to die, but remember that Lieber was a decent innings muncher even playing in Citizens Bank Park, which appears to be 270 down the lines and 320 in the gaps. There's not that much difference between Lieber and Greg Maddux at this point, and you can get Lieber for half Maddux's price.

In his article, he also mentions USSM endorsed free agent starter Bartolo Colon, as well as Jason Jennings and Tony Armas Jr. Yes, I know. Armas is bad. Maybe he'd be a decent reliever, not that we need a lot of help there... After reading about the Cardinals interest in the more overpriced FA crop like Lohse and Silva, I'd really prefer if the Cards went the less expensive, less commitment route. Silva and Lohse will probably land near double what they are actually worth.

http://www.tangotiger.net/salary2008.html

If Jenning's elbow is OK, he seems to me to be the cream of the crop, even after an ugly 07. It's just his gb% was uncharacteristically went south, and the flies + Juicebox is what ruined his ERA. Going into 07, PECOTA had his projected WARP 3.4 for 2008, and 2.8 for 2009. With the concerns about his health, I could see him signing for a 1 y deal with incentives, maybe an option. could be a bargain.

[editor's note, by erik]While I'm talking Hot Stove, here's a bargain option for you on replacing Eck---D'Angelo Jimenez

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/DAngelo-Jimenez.shtml

.351 career MLB OBA, .368 career minor league OBA.In 04 he homered 12 times and took 82 walks for the Reds, and has been banished to AAA seems like since. He's more of a 2B, but has played some SS. let jimenez, ryan and barden "duke it out" for SS, and jimenez probably wins and it costs the team like 1.5-2 M for all three on the roster, if that. and you can bring in lieber and maybe even jennings around $15 total. you dump Rolen for whoever will take his whiny butt if at all possible, and replace him with Mike Lamb, for like $4m. problem solved...if it were that easy. eh, maybe that's not good enough. but i'm of the school of play for 09

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments

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I'll pass on Armas
But would be all for 1 year or incentive laden 2 year deals to any of the others.
"A great catch is like watching girls go by; the last one you see is always the prettiest." - Bob Gibson

by stl tyler on Nov 14, 2007 8:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Beat me to this
by about 2 minutes. Look at what he says about Lieber. Guess who's not on the list -- Carlos Silva or Kyle Lohse!

by chuckb on Nov 14, 2007 8:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting take
on Jimenez. I've read nothing good about his defense but Eckstein's no gold-glover either. Maybe he's as close to a compromise between Ryan and Eckstein as we're really gonna get. He's gotta be better than Izturis.

by chuckb on Nov 14, 2007 9:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

How about a little help?
I was using tango's salary scale you provided there to evaluate Silva based on last year's performance. BP had him at a WARP1 of 5.5 -- worth $95M for 4 years on the scale, but the Hardball Times had him at 6 WSAB -- about 2 wins above replacement. That's about league-average and worth about $24 M on a 4 year deal. Why the discrepancy? Shouldn't WARP1 be roughly the same as WSAB? I noticed a similar discrepancy w/ regard to Rolen the other day. Why such a dramatic difference?

by chuckb on Nov 14, 2007 9:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

the difference is where they set
replacement value.

I'm not sure how compatible tango's chart is with other stats since he has his own definition for WAR.

by azruavatar on Nov 14, 2007 10:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jimenez
I always liked him. It'd be interesting to see what he can do with the Cards.

According to BP, he's 4 runs below average defensively, with most of his career played elsewhere.

Offensively, I like it; defensively, I'm not sure he's got the chops. A platoon, perhaps?

by sjoshi on Nov 14, 2007 10:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Bring him in
for some competition in ST.  Let him, Ryan, Hoff, Barden, hell even Hector Luna battle it out.  Let Miles go and hope that 2 of em stick on the team.

BTW, Jimenez appears to have crazy plate discipline.  Looks like around a 15% BB rate.  Could put up a solid OBP as a leadoff man.

by CardFaninVA on Nov 15, 2007 2:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jimenez
He will be 30.

Why do you want to deal with a 30 year old prospect type guy?

by ICbirdfan on Nov 15, 2007 2:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd really like to see the Cardinals take
a chance on a 1 year contract (with option) for Bartolo Colon.  Duncan is all about preaching conditioning and that is, above all else, what Bartolo needs.
"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 14, 2007 11:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Projections for Colon

            W  L  ERA  G  GS   IP   H  HR BB SO
Bill James  4  4  4.24 14 12 70.0  73  10 22 51

No ZiPS yet.  Does Bill James think that Colon will be injured again next year, is he only going to start 12 games because he is fat or is he currently injured?  Inquiring minds want to know.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 15, 2007 12:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

jimenez and chacon
for me please
also, how about a abraham nunez reunion as well!
he played third very well in rolens absence....
valuable bench guy in my eyes

id rather see us sign byun yung kim or chacon than over pay for way too long for middlings like silva or lohse

Come on 2009!

by benstl on Nov 15, 2007 1:32 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

affeldt
wasn't jeremy affelt a starter in kc before an injury?  maybe he could be this years version of project looper.  under no condition do we sign byun yung kim.

by rajah424 on Nov 15, 2007 1:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

no need to pay
for retreads use thompson he can be 5th starter on the cheap./If mulder returns aw loop pinero mulder and thompson.Unless you can package reyes ans some others for a better starter or lieber in the 2 hole and push everyone back a spot..

by cm1000 on Nov 15, 2007 7:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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