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ALCS Game 4 Open Thread

Update [2007-10-17 13:5:3 by Valatan]:: today's post on chance and the playoffs will be up at 1:30. Sorry for the delay

wakefield

byrd

17-12, 4.76

15-8, 4.59

congratulations to the rockies on succeeding the cardinals as nl champs.

it's not the pineiro contract itself that's disheartening; it's not pineiro himself. it's the organizational disease, of which this signing is yet another symptom --- a deadly lack of imagination. there's a hole in the rotation? alrighty, then --- locate the nearest free-agent mediocrity and fork over some millions; problem solved. but of course, the problem's not solved --- no more than the right-field problem was solved when the cardinals signed juan encarnacion, or the setup-man vacancy was filled when they signed braden looper, or the chasm at 2b was eliminated when they signed adam kennedy. taken in isolation, each of these acquisitions might have been defensible at the time; taken as a group, they've made the team old and slow and leaky. there's only so much mediocrity you can lock in before the roster calcifies under the sheer mass of it. the cardinals are well beyond that point.

there are other ways to go. the VEB community has set forth any number of ideas for how to freshen up the composition of the team, adding flexibility and growth potential. some of the proposals we generate are less realistic than others, but at least there's always creativity in the thought process --- a cataloguing of assets and needs, and an attempt to deploy the former efficiently in service of the latter. that is what's been lacking during the cardinals' last 2 off-seasons --- and we already see the same lack this off-season in the hasty re-signings of so-so players from the terrible 2007 roster. when we bemoan the re-signing of joel pineiro, we're really bemoaning the organization's embrace of stand-stillism. the cards are just treading water, casting about for lifelines --- "think this guy might be any good?" "maybe; what other choice do we have?" --- instead of charting a course.

pineiro represents another lifeline on a roster that's already got too many of them. without question he's an upgrade over kip wells; he increases the odds that the team will win 84 games next year. but he decreases the odds that they'll win 94. that's what mediocrities do --- they drag you under just as much as they buoy you up. of late in st louis, the drag has outweighed the loft; the cardinals came within a few runs of having the worst run differential in the league last year. they don't merely need to be tweaked around the margins. they need to be worked over but good. risk will be involved. we haven't seen any sign so far that the club a) recognizes this, or b) has a plan for what to do about it. it's still early in the off-season; things might improve, particularly once the new gm is in place. but every new roster spot the cards commit to a mediocre player hardens the status quo --- which, last october aside, ain't too good.

i believe pineiro reminds the cardinals of a couple reclamations they had success with in the not-distant past. one is woody williams, a post-deadline acquisition in 2001 who, like pineiro, made 11 starts after joining the cards. both pitchers stabilized wobbly rotations and helped lead moribund clubs back into contention; in williams' case, the cards closed the deal and got back to the playoffs. that off-season, st louis re-signed williams to a rich 3-year deal, one that proved to be worth every cent. but williams had a lot more than 11 good starts to recommend him; he'd posted a 3.75 era just one year before the cardinals got him, and in an 8-year career he'd only once posted a worse-than-average era (park adjusted) --- and he was within 0.03 points of average that year. he was an extremely consistent pitcher with a strong recent record; pineiro doesn't have that type of resume.

the other recent salvage job who pineiro vaguely resembles is chris carpenter. both pitchers were successful in their early 20s (pineiro far more so than carp), then suffered elbow injuries at age 24 that drastically worsened their performance. carpenter managed one good season after the injury (2001, his best year up to that time), but only after shoulder surgery and 18 months of rehab did he come back as an effective pitcher. fortunately, he was still only 29 years old --- the same age pineiro will be next season. . . . . . but the analogy only goes so far. when carpenter broke out for the cards in 2004, he was only 2 years removed from his most recent good year; pineiro is 4 years removed from his last effective season. and, probably more important, carpenter had signed for $500,000; pineiro signed for $13m more than that. so the cases aren't really similar at all; forget i brought it up. pineiro ain't very likely to be the next chris carpenter.

he might be the next jason marquis, though; that's who baseball-reference.com lists as pineiro's #1 most comparable pitcher. when you've finished retching, realize that marquis was a league-average pitcher in 3 of the last 4 years. . . . but also realize that he pitched himself clear off the playoff roster twice in that span, and out of the playoff rotation a 3d time; with his horrible performance down the stretch in 2007, he may have pitched himself out of the cubs' plans for 2008. typical mediocrity --- he buoys you up, he drags you down. other top-10 pineiro comps include kyle lohse (4.62 era in 2007), steve trachsel (4.90), and eric milton (5.17). the only good pitcher on the list is brad penny.

there's a reasonable chance this guy will be about as effective as marquis or lohse --- a .500ish pitcher with an era between 4.50 and 5.00. but the cards already have two roster spots committed to pitchers of that caliber (looper and franklin), and roster spots are finite resources. for all the discussion about dewitt's tight-fisted spending, the bigger problem with this team has been profligacy --- the extravagant waste of roster spots on players with limited abilities and little development potential. (say it with me, everybody: opportunity cost.) as for pineiro's salary, it might be that a rump-of-rotation pitcher is worth $6.5m a year these days; perhaps that's a reality of the market. but it's a dead-end market, frequented by teams that are going nowhere. kris benson in baltimore, eric milton in cincinnati, tony armas in pittsburgh, steve trachsel and ramon ortiz in whatever towns they happen to find themselves in a given year --- that's the circuit pineiro travels on. it's not a loop any of us wants to see the cardinals get trapped in.

it's this prospect, not joel pineiro per se, that has me and so many other VEBbers feeling blue in the wake of this signing.

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Blue indeed.
I'm pretty downcast by the whole way that this offseason is going so far.  All we've heard is the need for a new direction; all we've seen is the same old same old.  Where is the vision?  The direction?  As you say, the imagination?  I see none.  Only hidebound, stuck firmly in neutral thinking.  

As far as Pineiro goes himself, though, I guess it could be worse.  At least he's fairly aggressive on the mound.  Maybe he really did figure something out here under Duncan.  Maybe he'll be okay.  I'm hoping for the best here, but I'm having a hard time seeing how even the best case scenario really puts us in line for anything that exciting.  (Heaves a sigh)  Times like this make me wish I knew how to play the harmonica.  

The 2007 offseason: Butter? Or Steel?

by the red baron on Oct 16, 2007 8:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Excellent stuff
as usual.  Pineiro isn't the next Chris Carpenter or Woody Williams, but I guess it doesn't bother me that he could be similar to Lohse or Marquis.  The Redbirds need guys that can eat innings.  We know the market is crazy, especially for starting pitching, and I'd rather the Cards work quickly, as they did with Pineiro, to fill some of the missing pieces of the rotation.  Aren't you even a little relieved that the deal wasn't for 3 years, $21-24 million.  I'm wondering if Mozeliak's aggressiveness will continue throughout the winter.  It seems that in recent off-seasons, the front office didn't have much of a solution or direction until it was too late.

by qwikimport on Oct 16, 2007 8:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Solution/Direction
Yep, it's nice to see them being aggressive for once.

However, the way they are going about it is all wrong.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fantastic summary line
" he increases the odds that the team will win 84 games next year. but he decreases the odds that they'll win 94."

That just sums up this signing so well!

by cariocacardinal on Oct 16, 2007 8:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

94 games ?????
There is no set of off-season moves that would bring this club to a 94 win season. If they win that many games - it comes from resurgent Rolen and Edmonds and stable output from the corner outfield positions.  Throw in an improbable resurgence of Mulder and MAYBE we get to 94.  

We needed someone to ease the strain on the bulpen, and that is what we got.  Maybe overpaid, but as many others have said - stability.  

by cdb on Oct 16, 2007 10:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why?
Why does an 75 win team need somebody to ease strain on the bullpen?  I don't follow.  They shouldn't be focused on winning next year(because it's a pipe dream), they should be focusing on rebuilding a tired roster not adding to it.

BTW, everyone continues to claim Pineiro an innings eater when he reached the 200 inning mark exactly once in his career.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

75 win team
I tend to agree to a point.  And I don't mean to claim that he is an inning eater - but by all accounts he should be able to get deeper into games than Kipper did.  

In my opinion - not a numbers-based assessment here - the cards offense can be better next year.  They won't break any offensive records, but they could be slightly better if the veterans play a little more like the should have and health issues are less of a concern.  Also depends on you the Ankiel/Duncan/Ludwick/Skip platoon works.

IF (in caps) the offense is a little better, the Cards have a chance to compete in the NL Central.  However, if the bullpen was dismantled and the offense does not improve, we are considerably worse in 08 than we were in 07.  

All I am trying to say is that the Cards so far have resigned players that actually played pretty well for us in 07 and I don't see how that is so terrible.  The dead weight were those veterans with large contracts that were either injured/underperforming/old - and  we can't realistically move them unless it is a salary dump.  

by cdb on Oct 16, 2007 1:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

cdb, your reaction is telling
i'm not talking about winning 94 games in 2008; i'm talking about '09 or '10 or '11. i'm looking down the road --- and i think the others who are dismayed by the off-season so far are doing the same. we want to see the organization acquire some players with development potential --- players who can move the organization forward. signings such as pineiro / springer / etc don't move things forward; they're just band-aids. they patch holes, sort of. if you do that for too long a time, you end up with a patchwork team that faces a struggle every year just to stay competitive.

the people who like the move seem to like it because it might help in the short term. the people who are unenthusiastic are generally taking a longer-range view.

by lboros on Oct 16, 2007 6:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Innings eater
Sure, he's reached 200 IP only once, but he's pitched 189 or more three times in his career, and only one pitcher for the Cardinals did that last year. He's shown durability in the past and we need that if 2008 will be more interesting in St. Louis than Memphis.

by liam on Oct 16, 2007 2:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You said it
You sum up my feelings perfectly LBiddy.

In some small way, I am starting they don't hire a DePodesta/Antonetti type.   The new guy is being painted into a corner before he even takes the job.   I'm sure one of those guys would come in and start to try to make organizational changes, then be held accountable for the crap he didn't create before his changes have a chance to bloom (deja vu DePodesta?).

by RedbirdRay on Oct 16, 2007 8:39 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Liam's analysis comparing Suppan & Pineiro
http://heylisten.blogspot.com/2007/10/pick-card-any-card.html

Liam posted this link late yesterday in the sidebar diary.  I wanted to post it again here in case people haven't had a chance to look at his analysis or haven't had the heart to wade through all the comments from yesterday.

IMHO, it was one of the most informative posts I read yesterday.  I think no matter where you stand on this debate, people would appreciate the statistical table Liam provides and the thoughtful comparisons and distinctions he draws between Suppan and Pineiro.

by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 9:09 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

thank you
Good to see other commentary and get a well-rounded view of this move. I will admit though, it is a little surprising on the number of moves being made prior to the hire of our new GM. I think that's the story more than the signing of a guy who'll most likely be just fine at the back end of the rotation where we need someone anyway. Only way this turns out as bad as some are making it out to be is if the money spent prevents a significant signing for a front-of-the-rotation pitcher and/or offensive player.

by jomfa on Oct 16, 2007 9:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Suppan
signed a 2 year, $6 M contract that became 3 years and $9 M when the Cards picked up his option on the 3rd year.  That's less than half Pineiro's deal.  If Mozeliak had just signed Pineiro to such a deal, there wouldn't have been near the hand-wringing about this.

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 9:31 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But that was before the spike
in pitching salaries.  Those numbers are no longer realistic for negotiating with pitchers in today's market.

by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 9:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Free Agent Market
The free agent market wasn't as silly that season as it is right now.  Weaver got how much last offseason?  You can't compare the money from then with the money now, if anything I would say it is about the same comparatively.

I like Liam's analysis as it is about what I have been feeling.  We are paying Pineiro to anchor this rotation, give us room to experiment with high risk high yield top ends while also leaving open the possibility of signing a known top quality starter.  I am not sure how the rest of the off season is going to go but I am excited that 3 signings have already been made, how long did it take for us to do anything last off season?

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 9:39 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right. I take the speed of the recent signings
as a sign of things moving in a better direction.  Last year was frustrating as the months rolled by without any attempts to sign people who had been successful with our team.  

by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 9:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But houston,
do you really think that Supp's past deal w/ STL  represents realistic money in today's market?  I don't.  That said, $13 million does seem like a lot of money for an average pitcher.  

by cardsgirl95 on Oct 16, 2007 9:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What's realistic
According to the Hardball Times Fair Market Value Calculator, Pineiro would have to be worth 4 WSAB in '08, and 5 WSAB in '09 to justify his salary.  He had 3 last year and hasn't had more than 3 since they've been keeping data on WSAB (since 2004).  This is based on the "fair market value."  So he's going to magically revert to pre-2004 form?

According to Baseball Prospectus' MORP calculation, Pineiro must be worth approx. 2.63 WARP1 in '08, and 3.28 WARP1 in '09 in order to justify his salary.  Last year, he managed to "produce" a WARP1 of 2.5, counting his time w/ Boston and St. Louis.  He hasn't been above 2.5 since 2004 and hasn't been at 3.3 or higher since 2003.  Again, MORP is based on the current market values out there.  PECOTA, BTW, has him worth less than $7 M (again, current market value) for the next 2 years.

Salaries haven't escalated THAT much!

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 10:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

WSAB/WARP-X
These are basically counting statistics, HC. Even if (when) Pineiro's strand rate collapses five or ten percentage points from last year's starting performances, he could very well contribute that much over 190 innings instead of only 64. (If the offense improves, I'm not sure whether those stats are calculated by divviying up shares of actual wins or expected wins.)

This isn't a slam-dunk signing, but it's not a horrible one. I share your desire to see the Cardinals greatly improve, but until the world series is over, all we can do is sign our own. Pineiro's showing signs of being an effective pitcher again—his velocity is up from the past few years recovering from elbow injury and he's apparently bought into the Duncan program.

No need to paint yourself into a corner here—you know I'll be tempted to tease you if Pineiro consistently pitches the Cardinals into a chance to win baseball games like Suppan did during his tenure in the Lou and even Marquis did in 2004 and most of 2005. That's all he has to do—he's not the ace we're looking for, but he's as good a bet to manage opposing offenses for 190 innings as any other pitcher we'd have to spend more for in free agency.

by liam on Oct 16, 2007 11:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dal Maxvill Era Part 2
Gawd, let the birds get a real general manager.  Moleziak is starting to sound like Maxvill's son.  The number of time I heard Maxvill say he couldn't afford a big name free agent because the payroll was increasing 10% due to already existing contracts made me want to shoot myself.  There was absolutely no creativity in handling the roster.  Those teams were so awful because they kept the same awful players on the roster year after year and justified it by saying that they couldn't afford free agents because of the stupid contract that they agreed to.  The idiot nevered realized none of us wanted to watch the same horrible players year after year and if he freed himself of those mediocre players he might have been able to gone in another direction with the roster.

by BigJawnMize on Oct 16, 2007 9:17 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I should state
I am refering to the late Dal Maxvill era.

by BigJawnMize on Oct 16, 2007 9:18 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

mr maxvill
is not dead yet.
I'd rather my sister become a prostitute than my brother become a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Oct 16, 2007 9:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually this is kinda similar...
...to today.  If you think about it the team had some sucess in the mid to late 80's, but retained a lot of the same players through the early 90's into the downslope of their careers.

by BigJawnMize on Oct 16, 2007 9:21 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Please, everybody, don't
break out the cyanide capsules just yet.  We DON'T HAVE A GM at the moment, and you're expecting bold moves and far-reaching vision?

LB, just take a deep breath, get into the spirit of Rockie fever and enjoy the postseason.

Is it possible this pattern will continue for the Cardinals? Yes.  But is it too early to be so sure of that? Also yes.

The most important thing in baseball right now is that the RED SOX MUST BE ELIMINATED. All else pales in comparison. Turn your karma toward Cleveland and focus your energy.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Oct 16, 2007 9:17 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Reminds me of Dr. Who
and the Daleks.
"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill

by lordsummer on Oct 16, 2007 9:56 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

EXTERMINATE!!!!!
EXTERMINATE!!!!!

  Favorite show of all time. Nice one

by The Butcher on Oct 17, 2007 11:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bostona delenda est!
I'm going for the nerdiest post of the day award.

by mattybobo on Oct 16, 2007 10:21 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hannibal
might have had a chuckle at that one, Matty.  I'll give you my vote.
"Requiescat In Pace - 2007 Zombie Cardinals"

by AustinBOB on Oct 16, 2007 1:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Right ON
lboros, your analysis seems to be right on.  Good words, as usual.  It's a frustration to which many of us can relate. Many here at VEB respect the club for not overspending on over-priced FA, but if you don't you are certainly left with just that--left-overs.

My question is (for the forum) how do you AVOID mediocrity and staleness on a club with limited resources.  (Insert a cry out to raise the payroll here)  Increasing payroll can get you 1, maybe two more top of the line impact players, but some degree of creativity HAS to be involved,right?... not to mention luck (just ask the Yankees).

Thoughts?

by ChadEliot on Oct 16, 2007 9:20 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

limited resources
>>how do you AVOID mediocrity and staleness on a club with limited resources?<<

Look at the payrolls of Colorado, Arizona, and Cleveland.  All well below the Cards.  How did they do it?  Just look at the players on their rosters: young players, the vast majority of whom are home grown.  These teams are the Anti-Cardinals.  It's just an excuse to say we are a mid-market team that can't spend like the Yankees or Red Sox.  Only the Yankess and the Red Sox can spend like themselves.  They are in their own league, the dollar division.  The other 28 teams, the reality division, operate under roughly the same constraints (with a few teams below the median, KC, and few teams above like the Cubs).

by jjray on Oct 16, 2007 10:29 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Indians fans suffered through 6 years
without the playoffs while they watched a prime Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, Brian Giles, Omar Vizquel, and Richie Sexson all go elsewhere and succeed during that stretch.

The Rockies finished in 4th place or worse each of the previous 9 seasons.  They finished above .500 once.

The DBacks are a much different animal in that they were able to reach success very early.  However, by all accounts, their team played extremely over their heads this past season and I would not be stunned to see them regress to a 3rd place finish in that division.

Small payrolls/young players don't happen in a vaccum.  You have to lose quite a bit for a long time to have that happen.

Are you willing to finish below .500 and no higher than 3rd or 4th in the division for half a decade just to get younger and more talented?

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 16, 2007 10:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hardcore...
"Are you willing to finish below .500 and no higher than 3rd or 4th in the division for half a decade just to get younger and more talented?"

That could very well be our fate anyway.  This roster is going to need a major overhaul, and it isn't going to be done through Free Agency.  I don't understand why they would postpone the inevitable.

BTW...this team could be back and competing by '09 were they willing to just play out '08 and quit throwing money around.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If the team could be back and competing by 09
then why should Joel Pineiro's $7.5 M stop them from doing that?
"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 16, 2007 1:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...
It's not going to stop them, but it will be hinderence.

Everyone has been asking those you complain for a better plan...well, check out my sidebar diary.  I think people might like the roster I've assembled.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 2:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hardcore, the answer to your question is
opportunity cost.

while the triple A team doesn't have any pitchers ready to step into the rotation on april 1, they very well might by july 1 --- hawksworth might get it together, garcia (if healthy) or boggs might be ready, maybe pj walters will continue to fool 'em. at least 1 of those 4 guys very well might be a better pitcher than joel pineiro by mid-2008 ---- i'd give it a 1 in 3 shot. by the spring of 2009, it's probably no worse than 50-50 that one of those guys will be a better big-league pitcher than pineiro --- and making the league minimum, rather than the $7.5m pineiro will be owed.

but pineiro will probably be taking a roster spot away from one of them. that's why it's a frustrating contract --- and that's why i say the signing makes it less likely that the team will improve to 94 wins down the road. players like him lock in mediocrity; they impede growth.

by lboros on Oct 16, 2007 7:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"players like him..."
"...lock in mediocrity; they impede growth."

This I would love to agree with, because it is the stance I have taken all season, and as a matter of principle it is correct.  However, even with this signing, we are still 2 pitchers short of a rotation.  If Garcia or Boggs look like real options by July, there is a very good chance that someone will be hurt or underperforming, allowing us to give one of them a shot.

If not, then another year in the minors for seasoning won't hurt the development of pitchers who haven't even thrown a full season at AA ball yet, will it?

by SleepyCA on Oct 16, 2007 7:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would be willing to roll the dice on PJ
if he looks good in spring.  As a control and finesse artist he probably isn't going to learn a lot more at AA,AAA.  

You are correct that if we start Mulder I expect he is back on the DL before the ASB

by DriverZn on Oct 16, 2007 7:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

None of those guys
(all of which I like) really have the skill set to make the jump from AA to MLB in a span of 3 months, which is what you are suggesting.

But say they light the world on fire and get a callup, they've still got to fill some rotation slots.  Unless all 3 come up, the rotation as it stands:

Wainwright
Pineiro

Looper
Mulder

Thompson
Reyes

I broke them up like that because the first 2 are slightly less likely to get injured, the second 2 are almost assured a DL stint and the last 2 are having their MLB starter clock running out.  If Boggs (who will more than likely be a career reliever), Walters and Hawksworth dazzle the Memphis crowd, then they can replace 1 or more of Looper, Mulder, Thompson or Reyes when they either a) get injured or b) suck.

There is a whole lot of weakness in this rotation and finding a slot in the rotation won't be too hard if you are any good.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 17, 2007 2:23 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

exciting!
I can hardly contain the excitement I feel when I dont see Kip VonKippersly's name in any of our rotation ideas!
Somewhere the real Cardinals front office is being held hostage.

by yer dog first on Oct 17, 2007 2:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's because
We're mostly pessimistic here, not to be confused with masochistic.
Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Oct 17, 2007 5:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Marquis is his #1 comp?
I'm still retching; I'll have to read the rest of your post later

by tdawg on Oct 16, 2007 9:26 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's not Pineiro per se
that bothers me, it's what lboros calls the lack of imagination/direction. It now appears Mozeliak is bound and determined to sign Eckstein- a huge mistake in my mind both financially and in terms of opportunity. Each one of these same-old, same-old roster spots further restricts a fresh approach. Didn't these guys see the 2007 season? Mediocrity and injured mediocrity wall to wall. Please hire someone new and rebuild properly. The frustration is mounting.

by vinniefromjersey on Oct 16, 2007 9:26 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree
I totally agree with you.  I loved D-Eck while he was here and I'm sure we will continue to see his jerseys in the stands for years, but when you are a franchise that must be wise with spending why commit possbily $7 mill (just a guess) more to him than what Ryan would make?  Couldn't that extra cash go towards trying to get a top of the rotation starter?
God bless this franchise, but they are driving me crazy.

by Jtip20 on Oct 16, 2007 9:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

....rebuilding?
We assumed we were rebuilding when in fact all that really occurred was Luhnow getting annointed by Dewitt as the new hope for the future by getting Walt out of the way.

Im ready to see the bats in the minors get a crack, we could still see Mather, Rasmus, Hoff and possibly Perez, Motte, Walters or Worrell get playing time in 08

Spring training is STILL being planned and theres 4 months of offseason ahead, maybe the doom and gloom and forboding is somewhat premature?

Just one hurdle left Clint!! Gooo Clint! Rox vs. Sox?

by cardschinmusic on Oct 17, 2007 6:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chances
Using your 84 win/ 94 win analogy:  

Say we have a 5% chance of winning 94 games next year and a 45% chance of winning 84.  Do you take a player (Pineiro) that will increase your chances of the more realistic goal or do you wait for the slim chance you'll find someone out there that helps you increase your chance at 94 wins?  Remember, we are in the NL Central, where 84 wins puts you in contention (and a midseason trade may put you over the top).

The only way we get back up to a 94 win team is luck, or development of the farm system.  Unless we are doing something in the detriment of developing players, I can't get worked up about signing a player that actually gives us a better chance to win (even if they aren't helping us get back to 2004/05).

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 9:35 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The fact that
we'll be paying Pineiro $7.5 M in 2009, when (hopefully) many of our prospects will be ready isn't a detriment to developing players?  

#1 -- it limits our ability to sign/trade for GOOD players by taking up $7.5 M worth of salary space

#2 -- in 2009, we should expect to be able to slot in some of the the starters in the farm system to the back end of the rotation.  Having Pineiro on the staff inhibits our ability to see what Hawksworth, Garcia, Parisi, Boggs, Walters, Herron, or others might be able to provide.  It doesn't really hurt us for '08, but it certainly does for '09.

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 9:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Developing players...
First of all, we have 3 pitchers under contract for 2009:  Wainright, Carpenter and Pineiro.  If one of the aforementioned prospects is ready, he still has 2 open spots to compete with.  

Second, none of them may be ready for the majors in 2009.  That is a big assumption

Third, you are assuming another year in the minors (or in the major league bullpen) would be a DETRIMENT to their development.  

I'm probably in the minority, but I'm a firm believer in the J. Santana, F. Liriano, A. Wainright, P. Martinez school of how you develop a pitcher:  Let them gain confidence in the bullpen for a year of development and then start them the next.

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 10:04 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I never assumed
letting them pitch out of the bullpen would hurt them.  Where did you get that?  But, if they're ready, they need to pitch and if there are spots available in the rotation, they should be there.  

None may be ready in '09 but we'll never know if we don't plug them in and find out.  It seems that Mozeliak's strategy is to go w/ "proven" vets over "unproven" youngsters.  Remember, "proven" doesn't mean good!  By 2009, it'll be time to find out what some of them can do.

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 10:10 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

bullpen...
If you are stating the unproven youngsters should get a chance in the rotation in 2009, then you are stating that they should bypass the bullpen and get a shot in the rotation (nobody is ready in 2008).  I'm not saying that's wrong, it's just a different philosophy.

I think you need a mix of proven vets and unproven youngsters.  I also am not as confident as you are that our unproven youngsters will be ready in 2009 for full time roles.  As the 2007 season showed us, there may be plenty of opportunities for youngsters even if we have a whole cadre of proven vets in front of them (which I'm not advocating).

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 10:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2009
Carpenter 14M
Mulder 11M or 1.5M Buyout
Wainwright 1M or long term deal already
Pineiro 7.5M
open

Perez .6M
Johnson .75M
Franklin 2.5M
Thompson .75M
Garcia .6M
Kinney .75M
Boggs/Hawks/Walters/etc. .6M

Molina 2-3M or so probably
Pujols 16M
Kennedy 4M
Rolen 12M
Martinez/Ryan/Hoff/Barden/etc. .75M
Duncan 1M
Rasmus .6M
Ankiel 3M or whatever

Anderson .6M
Martinez/Ryan/Hoff/Barden/etc. .75M
Spiezio 2.5M
Ludwick/Skip/JRod/etc. .75M
Ludwick/Skip/JRod/etc. .75M

I don't see that deal handicapping us in 2009 if we cut Mulder then we have 74.9M committed if we keep him then it is 84.4.  Assuming a 115M payroll then that leaves 40.1 and 30.6M to fill any voids.  This is with only 1 hole not filled with a place holder league minimum.  We are fine in 2009 because of those prospects, as long as they produce near what we want then they will save us from signing the Taguchis, Miles, Encarnacions of the world which gives us more room to sign the Pineiros.  As long as we don't bring back Miles and Taguchi I really just can't view this as bad, if we bring them back as well then I might get angry.

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 10:29 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And not having Pineiro
in '09 would give us $7.5 M more.  It's not about, is $35 or $40 M enough.  It's about what we could do w/ that $7.5 that is better than Pineiro.  And I'm here to tell you that a team could do A LOT w/ $7.5 M that is better than Pineiro -- for example, sign an SP as good as Pineiro, a backup C, AND a utility OF!  That would give us more to spend on the other spots.

It's about using your money wisely and $7.5 M in '09 on Joel Pineiro just isn't!

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 10:42 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You think that in 2009
average pitchers are going to cost less than $7.5 M?  Jason Marquis got an average of $7 M for 3 years just last off season coming off one of the worst ERAs in National League history.  Jeff Weaver got 1 year/ $8.4 M.  Miguel Batista got an average of $8.3 M for 3 years.  Woody Willaims in his ancient state got avg of $6.5 M for 2 years.

And we won't need a backup C in 2009.  Anderson should be ready by then.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 16, 2007 10:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One more time for everyone
Pineiro is not an average pitcher -- not even close.  Neither is Marquis.  They're worse.  We could get a barely-above-replacement-level pitcher for 1/2 what we're paying Pineiro.

And, if Anderson's here in '09, hopefully we'll need a backup C b/c we've traded Molina and given the job to Anderson.  If he's good, no need to play him 40 times!

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 11:13 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Talk is cheap
Houston Cardinal, particularly in the abstract.  I would be very interested in hearing some names.  Who could we get this offseason who is of comparable value at half the cost?  If you are right that such pitchers are readily available, let's go out and get some!  Given the dismal nature of this starting staff, we sure can use them; Pineiro isn't going to block them from filling the other openings.  Just don't tell me that we should be relying on any of the dubious prospects you have listed in your earlier post any time soon.  As for Anderson, have you noticed the number of passed balls he had this past season?  It was 15 and counting the last time I looked.  He is definitely a prospect because of his good lefthanded bat and his youth, but he's a work in progress.  I wouldn't be so quick to trade him, even if he is ready for the majors in '09.  As we have already seen more than once, Molina can get hurt.  It might be nice to have a little depth at catcher for a change.  Pitching depth would be even nicer, with a surplus for making trades.  Keeping Pineiro and developing those questionable pitching prospects we do have are hardly incompatible strategies.

by MikeG on Oct 16, 2007 11:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brad Thompson
is comparable and already on the staff.  He'll make less than 20% of Pineiro's salary just this year.  If I could do that in 10 seconds w/o looking anybody up, my guess is that Mozeliak could have, too.

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 12:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brad Thompson
is not comparable to Joel Pineiro, in my opinion.  I'm not looking up stats or anything, but when I see Thompson coming into a game, whether to start or relieve, I get uneasy, kind of like people used to with Izzy.

Pineiro gives the team a chance to win in the games he starts, and that's what matters most.

by qwikimport on Oct 16, 2007 12:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...
"Brad Thompson
is not comparable to Joel Pineiro, in my opinion.  I'm not looking up stats or anything,"

Then you are missing the boat.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 2:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I should have looked it up
Brad Thompson is definitely not comparable to Joel Pineiro.  Pineiro is better in nearly every category.  Guess I missed the boat.

by qwikimport on Oct 16, 2007 4:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fine
We already have Brad Thompson.  If he really is as good a starter as Pineiro (unproven in my view), that gives two more viable starters instead of just one.  Isn't depth wonderful?  Let's have even more of it!

by MikeG on Oct 16, 2007 12:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Additionally
$7.5 M may not get you an average starter but it may be the difference between a very good starter and an average starter. It could add quality w/o adding quantity.

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 11:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you have to think
that this insane Pitchers market will come back down to reality when the bad contracts of the past years really cripple the teams and everybody shifting their focus to farm development.  
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 16, 2007 11:16 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Or...
They will go up because baseball's revenue is rising (and the luxury tax is making more teams able to afford the mid level player).
"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 1:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Luxury Tax
And the big cash cow that moos quietly, MLB.com operations. Revenues from that are shared equally and it makes a ton between advertising and subscriptions to the (excellent) streaming audio/video feeds.

Plus the exclusive DirectTV deal or whichever satellite company that was, and the network on satellite radio.

by liam on Oct 16, 2007 1:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

so......
every team but the cardinals can pony up?
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 16, 2007 2:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What. The. Fuck.
The Cards 2007 payroll was $90,286,823.

DeWitt's already promised at least $110,000,000 for 2008.

People are bitching that Piniero, a best-case #3 pitcher, was kept under control for $5.5/$7.5 over the next two years.

The stated goal going into the offseason is to acquire a front-line starter.

Where's the evidence the front office isn't willing to pony up payroll for players?

MRCARD and I were arguing that there are streams of revenue coming done from MLB central in equally shares to all franchises and that makes small-to-mid market teams players for the bulk of talent available. This will be enough to sustain recent inflationary trends for the Marquis's of the world.

(Excuse my language, parents. Children are not to use words like that in speech or print.)

by liam on Oct 16, 2007 2:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

$102,000,000
Dewitt uses end of season salary to calculate his budget.  The figure he has given for 2007 is just over $102M (it's better for PR to anounce it that way).  

The "stated goal" of the last two offseasons has been to get a frontline starter.  I'll believe it when I see it.

by Stanfan6 on Oct 16, 2007 3:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Players
Just because you have the money to spend, doesn't mean the most efficient player is out there to spend it on.  Say we had 30 million dollars to spend THIS offseason instead of next offseason?  What would we spend it on?  A great player is going to cost well more than he's worth (see Lee, Soriano and A-Rod) and a good player will not be had for an "efficient" amount. There are efficiencies out there, but they are in player development.  There are reletavely few 'hometown discounts' and St. Louis doesn't have the market cornered on this (though we've gotten lucky in the past).  We also can't afford to bomb out (Schmidt) on huge contracts and we not all apparent efficiecies turn out (Giles below market contract last year for instance).

We are not a small market team, we don't have to use replacement level players instead of the Joel Pineiro's of the world (average innings eating pitcher).  Our payroll doesn't have to be 60-80 million dollars.  We are not a big market team, we can't spend 130 million dollars on an all-star (but not MVP caliber) player.  So what does that leave us with?  Signing players that will give us a couple of more wins each and developing players in the mean time that we can retain for below market price (ie players before free agency).

Tread water and develop until your next cycle of good/great players hits.  You may get lucky in the mean time (2006) or you may get extremely unlucky (2007), but at least we aren't the Royals.  We don't have to be a last place team in order to become a 1st place team again.  It's OK to win a few games while we wait on our development process to take hold.

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 11:16 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and just because
there's money to spend, doesn't mean it HAS to be spent!

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 1:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True...
But it's not my money, and it's not your money.  I really don't care if Bill Dewitt can't buy his 3rd cousin a cadillac because he signed Joel Pineiro instead of letting Brad Thompson suck up the innings.
"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 1:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Backup Catcher
I'd like to see us sign Todd Greene for that job. He's better than Sno-Cones at throwing to second and is serviceable with the bat. Signed a split-contract with the Padres last year before hurting his shoulder in Spring Training.  Can't imagine it'd cost more than $750,000 or so to bring him on board.

by liam on Oct 16, 2007 11:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

84 wins...
That may not keep you in contention for this division forever.

I'm not sure every other team in the division is content to hum around in a perpetual state of mediocrity like the Cardinals.

For the life of me, I can't see why anyone would put effort into trying to build an 84 win team.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mediocrity = Cardinals?
"perpetual state of mediocrity"  We just won a World Series and had 2 seasons above 100 wins.  What is mediocre about that.  If one 78 win season is 'perpetual mediocrity', then I don't know the definition of that term.

Building a team:  So in essence, you are saying that if you can't build a 100 win team, then you don't understand why a team would try to build the best team possible?  

Cardinals motto 2008 -If you can't be the best, then give up!

P.S.  I agree with your "they can't do that and win the division comment forever".  I just don't think it will be next year.

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 1:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Should have said...
Perpetual state of mediocrity to come.
"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 2:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

...paging Mr. G!!
MikeG, please do not go away!! You asked the 64,000 dollar question up above!
Just one hurdle left Clint!! Gooo Clint! Rox vs. Sox?

by cardschinmusic on Oct 17, 2007 5:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Issue
If this team had $20MM to spend for 2 starters, a shortstop, and an impact bat. (Which is what the organization said they were shopping for, that means 25% of that money just went to Piniero. $15MM to get the other 3? A top starter or an impact bat will cost nearly all of that. So, how does the math work?

Here is my point. I think many on this board are disappointed because this team needs an impact pitcher. Someone who will cost more than $10MM per year or many prospects or both. This team also needs a slugger, and those guys don't come cheap. Most of us believe that this signing takes away a big chunk of the dollars needed for those players for a guy who is not likely much of an upgrade from guys like Thompson, Wellemeyer, Kiesler...and other cheap pitchers. In other words, why spend $12MM on two mediocre pitchers when you could spend $12MM on a difference maker and use one of the in-house guys. Which route will give you the best return?

All of that being said, I don't hate this move. I think Piniero has more upside than most people on this board are giving him credit for. (In spite of some of the statistics that would say otherwise.) If he is a durable inning eater who gives you a little better than .500 record, he will be worth the money. However, the most important piece to this puzzle is who are the remaining 3 pieces?

Shortstop: We could live with Brendan Ryan if the other 2 players are very good. I just want the main priority for shortstop to be stellar defense. This means no Eckstein. (Wilson, Vizquel, Izturis)

Impact Bat: I don't understand the Aaron Rowand thing. He is a good, hard nosed player. However, he is coming off a career year in an extreme hitters' park and wants $14MM per year for 6 years. Run...Forest...Run!

Remaining Starter: This needs to be an impact guy...however, there aren't many of those available. Trade route: Santana, Garland, Willis, Burnett or free agent route: (Schilling, Pettite, Garcia, ????) The trade route seems more likely.

I want to see a more complete project before I grade the offseason, but it is off to a start. (good or bad)

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Oct 16, 2007 9:35 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Impact Bat, Plus starting pitcher
We aren't getting an impact bat or plus starting pitcher on the free agent market (there are none aside from A-Rod and his 300 million dollar contract), and we're not going to trade our prospects.  If you think I'm wrong, what impact free agent would you get (remember, he has to want to come to us and he will require a realistic contract)?  What trade would you make happen?  It's easy to criticise management, but a lot harder to quantify HOW we will become a great team right away.

It's either win 65-75 games next year and spend 85 million or win 75-85 games and spend 110 million.  It's not my money, and I'd rather see us win 10-20 more games (and possibly a lucky run like 2006).  We are not getting back to 2004-2005 until the farm system starts producing (I have hope), there is an influx of good free agents or teams needing to dump players for payroll (not likely).

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 9:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

criticise = criticize
VEB needs a spell checker
"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 10:08 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Firefox
Firefox has a built in spell checker.  Though I still sometimes ignore it.

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 10:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LB
has mentioned that Toronto is not happy with A.J. Burnett. A discussion around this fact had Duncan being a good fit with Toronto. Lets say a deal can be made for Burnett and Toronto agrees to eat some salary for '08. Burnett would have to be signed going forward or agree not to opt out.

 The Marlins are rumored to be open to offers for Cabrera or Willis. I am suggesting Miggy. So, we offer Reyes, Thompson, and just about anyone else. I would take a few names off the table. Rasmus, Hoffpauir and Perez would be untouchable but we have other people to offer. Anderson, Hawksworth, Marti come to mind among others.

So:
Duncan and two prospects for Burnett and 4m
Reyes, Thompson, and two others for Miggy (he makes 10mill next year.) Ryan plays short stop.

That's 18mil only three over your budget of 15mil.

It will be hard to get Miggy maybe Molina would need to be moved. I would do that, but now we would need to sign a free agent catcher and the budget goes up another 5m for a guy like Mike Barret.

Burnett
Wainman
Pineiro
Loop
Welle/Mulder Carp returns at deadline

Miggy, Edmonds, Ankeil
Schu, Ludwick

Rolen, Ryan, Kennedy, Pujols
Speezer, Miles

Barret/Molina, and back up.

Pen we all know

by nybirdfan on Oct 16, 2007 12:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

For Miggy...
I would be willing to give up Rasmus...Cabrera is a HOF type player and I am convinced that Rasmus is a good player with a few all-star appearences, maybe a more likeable JD Drew, but no where near the player Miggy is...I realize he will be a lot cheaper but pujols and Cabrera batting back to back is the most exciting thing I have heard in a long time!!!
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon

by nomar34 on Oct 16, 2007 1:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Compare
I know minor league stats aren't everything but:

Cabrera had 1428AB 409H 28HR .286AVG .431SLG 51AB/HR
Rasmus is at 1184AB 337H 52HR .285AVG .510SLG 23AB/HR

Rasmus is also a plus CF while Cabrera is a weak all around fielder.

While minor league stats may be misleading since Cabrera never hit more then 10 HR in the minors and now regularly hits over 30 but Rasmus hit 29HR this season off pretty good pitching so I really don't see him dropping too far off that as he ages.  Their AA seasons were both at 20 yrs old for Cabrera that was his 10 HR season and he had a better average stats over only half the season while.  I am not sure I would want a slow bad fielding 3rd basemen over a guy with 20/20 potential that can play plus CF.

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 1:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And Miggy is getting Big-ie
Hasn't his weight become an issue? This might not affect his offense as much, but it could certainly limit how he fits into the defensive scheme of things down the road.

Still, it would be nice to see him in Cardinals red w/ an arm aroud El Hombre.

by effin fisk on Oct 16, 2007 1:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i think i would...
if he hits like he has been and continues to improve like he should...the only right handed hitter i would take over miggy are A-Pu and A-Rod...i know he is a definsive liablity but his bat will more than make up for that...plus getting him around a strong presence like Pujols might help the way he condtions himself...i just dont see Rasmus being as good a Miguel Cabrera overall...maybe (hopefully) i am wrong...
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon

by nomar34 on Oct 16, 2007 2:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Realism
Not to burst your bubble, but just because it is rumored to be so, does NOT mean that it is actually the case.  

Second of all:  

"Rasmus, Hoffpauir and Perez would be untouchable,  Reyes, Thompson, and two others for Miggy (he makes 10mill next year.)"

The Marlins would be on the floor laughing with that offer.  Thompson is worthless trade bait and Reyes has lost a lot of luster.  Cabrera would START with Rasmus and probably take another prospect.  I'm still not sure some other team wouldn't beat it.  (For instance, some people like Adam Jones more in Seattle.  Could Seattle offer Adam Jones + prospect for Cabrera and beat us in a Rasmus deal?  Probably so).  

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 2:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rasmus...
Again, I'm not advocating trading Rasmus.  I'm just saying that the Marlins would probably require him to be in any offer that didn't include Duncan or Wainright.
"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 2:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

ok then
I make the call! Reyes, Molina, and two others, but pick up the phone and see what it takes. Lets get creative and make it happen.

by nybirdfan on Oct 16, 2007 9:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Barrett
Barrett is a loser!

He is bad defensively, and is not a smart ball player.

Lou Pinella was smart to figure that out very soon.

by ICbirdfan on Oct 16, 2007 2:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fine
if we trade Molina we will need a cather. I picked him. Hell there are plenty of catching free agents pick one u like. We keep Anderson and he will be ready in a year or two. So only offer two a year contract. If you want you can have Yaddy back once he hits free agency, but i would suffer a year of Barrett if we got Miggy!

by nybirdfan on Oct 16, 2007 9:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would be much more comfortable
if we had a GM like Antonetti or Woodfork with a long-term vision for success with this club, even if it meant scrapping 2008 altogether.  If we didn't sign any of these marginal, mediocre, overpaid starters who burden the club in future years and ended up going w/ replacement level starters earning the minimum for 1 year, to try and build up what we've got, I'd be OK w/ that.  Even if it meant losing 90 games, I'd at least feel like the organization was on the right track.  If this Pineiro contract were for 1 year, even for $6.5 M, I'd be OK w/ that.  The fact that we seem to be perpetuating this mediocre state by extending these mediocre, barely-above-replacement-level vets for multiple years, really burns me.

It's clear there's no real, long-term vision in the front office.  Maybe there will be very soon but I fear that the Mozeliak era has already begun and that we're simply looking at Jocketty-redux.

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 9:36 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

People who
frequent this blog would probably be okay with scrapping '08 if they could see that a vision for the future was being implemented.  But would the average fan feel the same?  Would the people who fill the seats on a regular basis see a losing season as progress?  I wonder.  Management can't risk alienating those people either.  Small doses of progressive thinking may be all some fans can handle.  The off-season hasn't even officially started, there is still time for change.  I know, opportunity costs and all....  

by cardsgirl95 on Oct 16, 2007 10:05 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Average fans
will still come to see shiny new Busch 3 and 2006 World Series champs for a while.  Theres no way the attendance drops under 2.5-3 mil for a long time.  Brews pulled 1.7-2.3 mil a year after they opened Miller even going last 3 years straight.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 16, 2007 11:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think
you are right about attendance.  But my point about the average fan was that most of them will not see scrapping '08 to improve in the future as a desirable goal, if they catch the "vision for the future" at all.  To illustrate, 79% of the 1,586 respondents to STLtoday.com's poll about the Pineiro signing voted that it was a "Good Signing".  I am not saying that their opinion is right or wrong, valid or invalid, but I think it shows what the average fan thinks.  I believe VEB posters are "above average" for the most part, but not all of Cardinal Nation will be on board with radical changes.  That's all I am saying.  

by cardsgirl95 on Oct 16, 2007 12:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and if it does, in the short-term
it will pick up again when we start winning more than 75-83 games in a season.  

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 12:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Craptastic this year and....
still set an all time attendance record.

If we do nothing to fix this problem, and we aren't, that's when attendance will start to fall.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

those tickets were sold
back before the awful Mets series to start the season.

As the season progressed, more empty seats and more Dan/Al/John/Mike begging people to come out cause they 'still have good seats availible for the homestand'.

"Well, you wait for a strike. Then you knock the shit out of it. - Musial to Flood on how to hit a curveball

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 16, 2007 1:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Regardless...
This team is still not going to have trouble putting butts in the seats unless we continue down the same path...which we are.
"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 2:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Attendance
Here's some raw data:Take it for what it's worth...

Since 1996 Cards averaged 3.16 mil a year, lowest was 96-97 around 2.6 mil.  In 96 They won the division, 4th the next year, but 1998 was the Mcqwire year and they've been above 3 mil ever since, all but once (2.9 mil during 2003, big race that ended 3rd).

94-95 The strike year and aftermath 1.8 mil.

Next era - 87 Pennant to Strike:

They averaged 2,761,612 from 87-94.  3 mil the pennant year, then they never dipped below 2.4 mil  despite finishing 3rd 3 times, a 5th and a 6th.

Basically in the modern era they've only dipped below 2.5 million in attendance twice, the strike and the year after.  

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 16, 2007 3:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

ding ding ding
you are right as usual boss. it's the same old song & dance. every year for a while now they've promised us changes. and ever year they still do the same old song & dance.

the Cardinals are in desperate need of some fresh blood. they need a guy in charge who can bring in quality players with the money they spend. not just marginaly talented players who are brought in to fill the holes that are there because the Cards can't, or won't keep their promises to the fans.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Oct 16, 2007 9:39 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think it is a very good signing
it is simply an economical move. The Cards have Loop and Wainman for next year. Pineiro is a good pitcher who will cost 2y 13mill. Way to go! Would you rather they sign Livan Hernandez for 3y 36mil?

 I read some where, and I can't find it now, that Pineiro is Duncan easiest reclamation project because Pineiro'd bad habits were so esay to see. I wish I can find that to reference here.

 Now The Post article has said that the Cards are still looking for a top of the line starter. I suspect that this will be through trade. We will have to wait and see. Garland, Burrnet, and Willis are names that have been thrown around.

 If the Cards are talking to the Marlins I would hope that they would talk about Cabrera.

http://www.miamiherald.com/591/story/271186.html

How about Reyes, Molina, and just about anyone else for Miggy. Bat him 4th and put him in LF. Sign him long term and he takes over at third when Rolen's contract expires.

 One thing I have noticed here at VEB is the negativity. It is getting depressing to come here and read this stuff. I don't think it is realism it is just pessimism.

This team will compete for the division title next year!

by nybirdfan on Oct 16, 2007 9:49 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'll still take it
over Bleed Cubbie Bleed any day.
"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill

by lordsummer on Oct 16, 2007 9:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pessimism
Totally agree NY.  I am about to stop reading VEB for awhile since every move, every signing, every new rumor has someone up in arms about how the franchise is the worst and we are destroying the Cards, etc. I come here for the type of comparisons that Liam made, yes this was more money then any of us would like to see spent but it isn't so horrible that it will cause the team to crumble.  Has this one disastrous season (and isn't it funny how is a near .500 season a disaster to us?) really changed our feelings for the team that much?  Meh call me a homer but I find it healthier to be happy, or at least find the bright side, of everything happening right now.

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 10:07 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, please don't leave the site for a while
your posts are refreshing, especially because you tend to see the brighter side of things and give us lots of good information to back up your arguments.  Think of the rest of us who need to reflect on different perspectives!

by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 10:15 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I won't
I need my daily fix so I won't leave but I have been tempted too.  I just can't get too worked up trying to defend something that I just have a Meh feeling about anyway.  It isn't a big deal yet people are blowing it up like it is.

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 10:31 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I, also don't see the the sky falling yet
but I would have rather seen the Pineiro contract be for one year... but on the flip side if he is worth 6.5 mil. for one year he is worth 13 mil. for two. because if he wins 15 next year, he'd cost a minimun of 10 for the second year. I don't think it's unrealistic that pineiro can win 15. Eckstien though bothers me. I like him offensively, the way he works opposing pitchers fouling off a lot of pitches and then punching out base hits. He makes a lot of things happen offensively but he has slumped badly at shortstop last year and frankly I don't think the can play it adequately anymore. A shift to 2nd base won't help either, because I don't think his arm is strong enough to turn the double play against fast runners. He would make a great bench player though, for the right price but here again, I think the Cards are gonna overpay.

by ridgesee on Oct 16, 2007 10:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cabrera's offense is nice
but are you gonna play him at 3rd base?  

I'd like to see him in a chart like we had yesterday.  How many runs does his offense add and how many runs does his defense give up?

by sdrone on Oct 16, 2007 11:16 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

no
I put him in left field.

by nybirdfan on Oct 16, 2007 12:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cabrera
doesn't have enough hustle in him to play defense. Put him in left field and he's worse than Manny Ramiriz. He can hit though and that's what he likes to do and  figures he doesn't have to go to the trouble to develop defensevly. (too much trouble for  someone with a lazy streak in 'em.) He'll sooner or later end up in the AL as a DL

by ridgesee on Oct 16, 2007 2:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well
For D Larry uses MGL's UZR which I can never find.  

BP's FRAR (some people aren't a fan) has him actually at 16 runs and his vorp at 71.4 giving him 87.4 runs above replacement, or just over 8 3/4s Wins in the standings.  In 2006 Rolen posted a 36.6 Vorp and a 24 FRAR for 60.6 runs or 6 2/3 wins.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 16, 2007 12:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cabrera was the worst NL
3B with -28 runs according to UZR.  RZR had him around -10 runs (although others had worse rates).  He's pretty bad.

(Note: BP defensive stats set their replacement level bar too low.  That's what makes a lot of players look like better defenders than they actually are.)

by azruavatar on Oct 16, 2007 12:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I've heard you criticize BP's
defensive stats before and I was wondering why?  If they set the bar too low, then, b/c it's the same for everyone, it still works as a comparison between players, right?  For ex: Player 1 is 10 FRAR and Player 2 is 25 FRAR -- maybe it really should be 0 and 15 (rather than 10 and 25) but can we safely say that Player 2 is 15 runs better than Player 1?  If not, why not?

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 1:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

no that's one of the problems
the other problem is that they are component based stats rather than a play by play stats.  It doesn't evaluate each play in individual context.

(I remember reading in one of the chat's that Clay was working on a PBP metric but I can't find it.  All the modern defensive stats are PBP - UZR, PMR, RZR, etc.)

by azruavatar on Oct 16, 2007 1:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Define
"component based stats" for me.

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 1:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

haha
I knew that was coming.  I wanted to provide a better answer so, I went digging again.  Here goes.

First off, the replacement level issue is only an issue if you start moving between statistics.  That is to say that you can't compare FRAR to UZR because the run totals have different offsets.  The reason I don't like the replacement level that they use for FRAR or WARP is that it's soooooooo low.  So when someone has a 2.5 WARP that's based mostly on their fielding, intuitively I think that a 2.5 win player isn't that bad.  But it is if you adjust the replacement level.  If you think that a replacement level fielder is closer to an average fielder (which I do) then that 2.5 WARP shrinks rapidly.  (Same can be said for FRAR.)  Comparing two players would work but the 10 runs ~= 1 win is misleading because the bar is low.

Second, while most of what BP does is proprietary and black box, the fielding stats use things like pitcher handedness to estimate the number of balls in each fielder's zone.  PBP metrics actually by zone data from BIS or STATS where a stringer codes  each BIP and it's zone (that's my understanding at least). David Gassko discusses it in both the links below (and Tango regularly bashes on the BP fielding stats).  

I have a lot more faith in UZR and RZR than I do in the BP stats.  I personally don't think that the BP fielding stats are reliable on the extremes -- but I don't have any particular evidence to back that up.  There's never a coherent or clear explanation of what Clay does with all the translations.  

The Book Blog thread on WARP and BP fielding
THT article about defensive metrics

by azruavatar on Oct 16, 2007 1:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Replacement level
A little off-topic, but I don't understand why BP figures their replacement level the way they do. From what I've read, they choose as the replacement level player the worst player at the MLB level at that position.

Instead it would make sense to take an average of the MLEs of each team's best minor leaguer at each position, so that replacement level reflects what it's supposed to reflect—it's the production level from a player that a team on average could add to fill a position at no cost, not the crappiest player tolerable to one of the worst teams.

(On your original topic, David Pinto's Probabalistic Model of Range is a transparent (and transparently good) play-by-play defensive statistic. I've harped on it before, but I'd love to see him convert that data into some sort of high-res BIP pitching statistic.

He shot a video explaining how it works here, for those interested in such things.)

by liam on Oct 16, 2007 2:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wish Pinto reported the fielders in terms of
runs rather than the outs ratio.  I've seen other people convert it (although i haven't looked at how they made the conversion) but it would make his results more intuitive.

That being said, the defensive graphs he produces are awesome.

by azruavatar on Oct 16, 2007 2:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

actually the conversion appears
pretty simple for those willing to take the time to do it (i.e. not me).

link

by azruavatar on Oct 16, 2007 2:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Replacement level...
"From what I've read, they choose as the replacement level player the worst player at the MLB level at that position."

I don't have the book with me, anybody want to correct/expand on it or wait til i get home, but BP doesn't go by the worst pos. player in the league.  They define it as ""freely available talent."  And they specifically say in the book that it's talent a team can randomly grab from AAA.  

I'm pretty sure it's explained here though.  I tend to zone out when there's that deep of a math discussion going.  

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 16, 2007 2:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sounds like I'm wrong
That link doesn't make it clear how they estimate replacement level for a position, though.

Sounds like they use some sort of weighted average of the teams' bench players for each position.

by liam on Oct 16, 2007 3:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i....think....
"Replacement-level delta is set at 70 points of OPS below league positional average (based on previous unpublished studies). The same delta is used for all positions (this is a possible area for future research)"

Average OPS for said position minus 70 = replacement level?  Am I reading that right?

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 16, 2007 5:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

holy shit
I got home, and it's a 9 page explanation in BP's book.  Anybody has the book it starts on page 161 in chapter 5-1 "Why is Mario Mendoza So Important?".  

Have at it.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 16, 2007 6:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Take a look at
Mario Mendoza's 1979. 25 OPS+ and 5 FRAA, and 17 runs over replacement. It's absurd.

by plh903 on Oct 16, 2007 5:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The thing that
makes it really awful on the position player side of things, is that Clay sets a replacement level for both offense and defense.

A .225 EqA and -20 FRAA (let's just pretend it's a good fielding metric) doesn't sniff the majors. Someone may have performed like that at one time or another (I don't know who) but if that represents someone's talent level then they never get a cup of coffee.

Let's say that Brendan Ryan is a .660 OPS, then at least he's probably a league average fielder. Guys have to have some discernable skills to ever get near a ML roster. Davenport's replacement level assumes that they have NONE at all.

The main issues is looking at defense and offense separately when calculating the baseline, which is just another way that BP gets hurt by their branding and allegiance some of their bad stats.

by plh903 on Oct 16, 2007 5:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

so if that's true
about FRAR, according to the THT article, you could use BP's FRAA as pretty good measurable stat to compare two players?  

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 3:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it's going to give you a better
replacement level baseline than FRAR in my opinion but it still does the weird factors and regressing based on things like innings pitched by a left hander.  I prefer the statistics that evaluate each ball in it's individual zone (not to say that there aren't still issues with the zone metrics. . .I just think their a) better metrics and b) explained better as they all do relatively close things.)

by azruavatar on Oct 16, 2007 9:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh boy...
"it is simply an economical move"

Problem is...now you have 3/5ths of your rotation that are "economical moves" who only at the VERY VERY VERY top of their projection even sniff league average.  In other words...3/5ths of your rotation have to pitch their very best just to be tolerable.

"Pineiro is a good pitcher "

Hasn't been for over three years now.

"I read some where, and I can't find it now, that Pineiro is Duncan easiest reclamation project because Pineiro'd bad habits were so esay to see. I wish I can find that to reference here."

Enough with the Duncan will fix 'em axiom.  It's very tiresome.  If Dave Duncan can turn every shit bum into a respectable starter then there is no need to throw 13M at said shit bum... Is that that hard to follow?

 "Now The Post article has said that the Cards are still looking for a top of the line starter. I suspect that this will be through trade. We will have to wait and see. Garland, Burrnet, and Willis are names that have been thrown around."

We'll see.  If they can get AJ Burnett for Duncan than maybe all is not lost...although they should be asking for Dustin McGowan.  Don't expect this team to employ a forward thing strategy like that though.  The other two names do nothing for me.

"How about Reyes, Molina, and just about anyone else for Miggy. Bat him 4th and put him in LF. Sign him long term and he takes over at third when Rolen's contract expires."

Great hitter...eating himself into a DH role.  He'd make Bonds look "rangy" in the OF, and is already the worst 3B in all of baseball.  It's hard to crack on such an outstanding hitter but I wouldn't be tying up a bunch of resources in a guy who's only realistic position is 1B...we've got one of those.

"This team will compete for the division title next year!"

If the division winner is somewhere around .500 again...then, yes, this team may stay within shouting distance.  If a real team emerges we are toast.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 12:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you know Bobby
The ghost of Babe Ruth could show up and say "I'll pitch every 5th day and I want to play rightfield the other days. On three conditions.

 1) I want 15 mil given to charity every year. 2) I can't travel with the team. 3) I show up one hour before the game and I don't have to warm up.

You would say. "15mil is too much. What is he some kinda shit bum he can't travel with team, and no warm ups he is so fat he better warm up!"

 Pineiro is a good pitcher! I saw the Met game. He certainly is no shit bum. We all have seen Duncan fail. Wells and Reyes this year, but his resume is the best! Maybe of all time. We all saw him turn Weaver around last fall.

 Oh and I suppose there is no way that Miggy would ever condition himself. There were quotes posted here about how he wanted to play for the Cards and how he would work on is defense.

The Cards need to get a front line pitcher. That need will have to be filled through trade. We will have to wait and see.

I am not a huge Burnett fan the injuries worry me, but a rotation of:

Burnett
Wainman
Piniero
Loop
Welle/Mulder

With Carpenter coming back at the trade deadline or early August isn't all that bad.
A line up of:

Ryan
Ankiel
Pujols
Miggy (lf)
Rolen
Edmonds
Kennedy
Molina or FA if we had to trade Yaddy to get Miggy

Will be pretty damn good.

This team well, diffenantly have a better record next year, and will compete for the title.

 Bobby I worry about you. You are so filled with negativity and fustration relax man this is all for fun. After all it is just baseball!

Is any of this going to happen? Is it possible? Is it the right thing to do? Who knows we don't even have a GM yet!

by nybirdfan on Oct 16, 2007 11:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

...oh no nybirdfan...
Because of Joel Piniera, the Cardinals are destined to be a terrible team from now to eternity, they will never recover from this financial indisgretion and failure to properly address the demise of the current roster.

Doom, gloom and hypertension prevail over Dewitts money and TLRs stale, antiquanited approach that ONLY made us world champs and kept us in the playoffs for most of this decade.

And we love to assume that TLR isnt even smart enuff to know the end of that run is near and we have to wait for Luhnows brilliance to become manifest thru out the organization. I would hate to be Luhnow, there'll be no other place to point a finger in 5 years.

By the way, I was loving MikeG and cardsgirl95 for lending a fresh argument and different perspective in the threads above. Thx!

Just one hurdle left Clint!! Gooo Clint! Rox vs. Sox?

by cardschinmusic on Oct 17, 2007 5:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Go Chin
I agree Chinmusic, all around.  While I am not singing the praises of the GM for his "great signing" I do understand the reasons and I really don't like all the doom and gloom, this won't set ups back as much as people are making it out too.

by StLHugo on Oct 17, 2007 8:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well
I don't think anyone is saying that the Pinero contract is terrible per se -- Just that it is evidence of a team employing the same short-term bandaid approach to putting a team together.  I understand that you can't manifest young talent overnight, but signing a mediocre pitcher with little to no room for development to a two year contract means that a young arm with potential (even if he isn't ready yet) won't get that spot and chance to develop (while making league minimum).  

If mediocrity's the best we can do right now, I'd prefer cheap mediocrity with potential. All that being said, we do need pitchers . . . I guess I'd just prefer not to lock up a league average pitcher to a two year deal because the Cards don't get any real benefits out of it except being able to say, "well, we needed a pitcher, and he wasn't THAT bad."  

I hope Pinero comes out and tears it up next year -- I'll certainly be rooting for him to do so.

by Ray Lankford on Oct 17, 2007 11:08 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When I though we should bring Piniero back,
I thought it would cost us $6-7M (total) for 2 years.  This is an absolute joke of a contract.  Without serious defensive upgrades JP's ERA will be over 5.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Oct 16, 2007 10:03 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

realistic
He was holding a 4M mutual option, he could probably get the 4M or more from any person he wanted to sign with and may be more.  I think 6-7M for 2yrs is unrealistic.  I was hoping for 10M but 13 isn't that upsetting to me.  It is 5.5M (.5M signing bonus factored into that) this season and 7.5 next, that to me is maybe a bit over market for him but still fills a slot that was a "any non Kip Wells free agent pitcher" hole in most of our rosters.

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 10:11 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

6-7 mil for 2 years?
If you really thought Pineiro was going to sign for 6-7 mil for 2 years, you don't have a very good grasp of what the player marketplace is like.  I think you're going to be astonished with what people make this year in free agency.
"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Oct 16, 2007 10:13 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Silly Question
But I know if football and basketball contract values are understated.

Is it $13m plus incentives or $13 base?

I can't determine the contextual clues...my wife is going to have to send me to conjunction junction.

there is no secret weapon...there is only Oquendo.

by bukowski on Oct 16, 2007 11:17 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

CORRECTION
I meant overstated.
there is no secret weapon...there is only Oquendo.

by bukowski on Oct 16, 2007 11:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

not sure
We haven't seen specifics yet, I assume he has some incentives for things like Cy Young voting and such.

For example here is what Kip Wells had in his contract this season:

award bonuses: $0.1M for Comeback Player of the Year, $0.1M for Cy Young ($50,000 for 2nd or 3rd in Cy Young vote, $25,000 for 4th or 5th), $50,000 each for LDS, LCS or WS MVP, $50,000 for Gold Glove or All Star ($25,000 for selection)

Pineiro will probably have similar things but the 13M number is the guaranteed value that he will receive.

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 11:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wainwright - long term?
Should we be locking up Wainwright long term right about now?  Or is he under our control for several more years?  

by sdrone on Oct 16, 2007 11:17 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's a nice thought
but Adam has got to be a smart guy.  If I were him, I wouldn't sign anything until I see where the pieces fall into place - the Cards should ask him, but given the market these days, his potential, his performance, etc - if I were his agent, I'd be saying listen politely, nod your head, and don't commit to anything.

As a Cards fan, I think they should be trying like the dickens to lock him up, but reality has that habit of staring us in the face.

there is no secret weapon...there is only Oquendo.

by bukowski on Oct 16, 2007 11:20 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also, Waino wants to be on a winning team
I doubt he would sign with the Cards unless he has confidence about where they are going as a club and and about their possibilities of remaining in contention during his prime.  Plus, since he loves the Braves so much, he may be difficult to snag for the long-term.

by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 11:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if you think the Cardinals won't lock him up...
you are crazy. I guarantee Wainwright will sign a deal, cheaper than he could get on the free agent market, and stay with the team atleast until his early 30's.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Oct 16, 2007 1:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

c'mon, you can't be certain about that
I agree the Cards will try, on their end, to lock him up.  But what Waino thinks of the changes in the direction of the club and where he wants to play will likely influence his decision.  None of us know where the club is going right now or whether it will be perceived as a winning team when they try to renegotiate his contract.  So it' silly to say that a fan can somehow foresee Waino's future state of mind on such issues.

by nycardfan on Oct 16, 2007 1:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Under control
this was his second season so we have him "under control" for a few more but I would assume that by the end of 08 or 09 that if he keeps performing the way he has that we would be trying to sign him up long term.

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 11:29 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think this offseason...
is the best time to try and buyout his arb years and maybe a year or two of FA.  Next season will be his last before being arb eligible...meaning he can (and probably will) be signed for near league minimum.  Offering him $1M this year and increasing that incrementally for four years after would be a great approach IMO...see if you could get him to sign.

08 - $1M
09 - $3M
10 - $4M
11 - $5M
12 - $7M(first year of free agency...maybe make this or 2013 at $9M a team option)

by cardzfanbub on Oct 16, 2007 12:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Awesome post.
100% on the mark.
Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on Oct 16, 2007 12:22 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I have been critical of Larry
for what has seemed to me excessive negativity about Pineiro and his new contract.  I have to say, however, that I agree with virtually everything he says in today's post about his concerns that the Cardinals may simply be repeating past mistakes by recycling at excessive cost the mediocre and over-the-hill players they feel comfortable with while lacking the vision to make the more extensive changes that are truly needed to refresh and revitalize the roster. He now makes it clear that his quarrel is not with the Pineiro signing per se so much as it is with the overall direction the team is taking, which seems more like continuing old ways that have ceased to work rather than embarking on the new path that has been promised.  The problem I think has more to do with the awkward timing of Jocketty's release and the need to make certain baseline moves before the start of the free-agency period under the authority of an interim general manager.  I think we have to wait and see who the new general manager will be and what course he follows before we can take a firm stand on where the Cardinals are heading.  Nevertheless, I do expect that I will at least be initially disappointed if Mozeliak gewts the job permanently.  His record, to the extent I can discern it, has not been impressive, and his appointment would not auger well for the future.

by MikeG on Oct 16, 2007 12:31 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

correction
"gets," not "gewts," in the previous post.

by MikeG on Oct 16, 2007 12:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's an important clarification to be
made about people (including myself) when we argue that Pineiro isn't going to be as good as he was back in 2004.  I don't think there's a person here, that would say, absolutely-no-way-100%-impossible that he can't achieve those 2004 levels.  He could.  The question, at least in part, is whether he's likely.  

If Pineiro does become an average pitcher next year -- fantastic!  I'll be as happy as anyone about it and I'll root for him to succeed.  But that still wouldn't invalidate the point that this is a bad contract.  For an (extreme) analogy, imagine playing Russian Roulette with just a single empty chamber.  If you don't shoot yourself, does that mean it was a  good idea?  No.  Beating the odds doesn't change the fact that the odds were against you and hence you made a questionable decision.

I remain skeptical that Pineiro is going to turn himself around.  I would have liked to see one of our AA arms get a shot for a while.  I believe both Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez made the AA jump for the Rockies.  While we don't have pitching prospects of that caliber necessarily, we do have a few (Garcia, Boggs) that could probably be around replacement level at the major leagues in the very near future.  Pineiro is holding par in an organization that needs to improve.

by azruavatar on Oct 16, 2007 12:49 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Solid...
"Pineiro is holding par in an organization that needs to improve."

Couldn't have been said any better.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Oct 16, 2007 1:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The other thing
about the Pineiro contract is that it provides very little likelihood that he'll be a bargain to the Cards, yet a much greater likelihood that he'll be a bust.  If he's earning $5.5 M next year, there's very little likelihood that his performance will be worth, say, $7 M.  There's a much greater chance that it will be worth the minimum -- so the possibility of truly getting a bargain here is very small.  

I'd say that the value of this contract probably requires him to hit his 80% or 90% (in measuring worst-case scenario at 0% and best case scenario at 100%) when you'd like it to be right around 50%.  He might meet, or even exceed, expectations next year but it is more likely that he'll be less valuable than his contract dictates.

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 1:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Russian Roulette
To me I don't see this as playing with only one open chamber, if anything I think it is 3 full 3 empty chambers.  You have the 3 bad cases of Kip Wells, Piniero circa 06, injury and then you have the 3 good/decent cases of Marquis circa 04 or 05, Suppan, and Pineiro circa 04.  For the price in this market I really don't see that as a bad gamble, especially if TLR and Duncan are back this year.

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 1:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sabernomics
Sabernomics is an economics based statistical blog.  He posted today about Pineiro and it is basically what I have been saying:

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/10/cards-sign-joel-pineiro/

"Baseball revenues are growing, and players are going to reap some of the windfall. This is just the first of many contracts that are going to drop some jaws this offseason."

Anyway regardless of if you beleive what he says it is worth reading his take on it.

by StLHugo on Oct 16, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I remember the last few offseasons
When we would look at signing like this one and think, "Well, Jockety might not be bringing in a huge name to add to the team, but at least he's not throwing crazy money and mediocre-to-bad players."

It's interesting how a losing season changes the perception. Granted, It's not Jockety anymore, but it is the same type of signing from the same team.

by effin fisk on Oct 16, 2007 1:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bad Contracts
Here are our current bad contracts.

Mulder   (he may never pitch well again)
Carpenter(he is out for prob 2 full seasons)
kennedy  (he is not going to get a ton better)
Spezio   (no need to pay a utility man so much)
Edmonds  (wow, I can't wait till he is done)
Rolen    (who knows his health)

These are the ones really hurting us at this point in my opinion.  Everyone else is pretty fair in my opinion.  Obviously I could add Eck to this list if he signs another 2 year deal.  I see problems with guys getting paid way over their contribution.  All these guys are getting paid way over what they are contributing.

by ICbirdfan on Oct 16, 2007 2:43 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Kennedy isn't a terrible contract
While his play has been terrible, we didn't give him enough money to really screw ourselves long term.

by DriverZn on Oct 16, 2007 3:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well . . .
I agree that its not a huge contract, but what do the Cards get in return?  His play hasn't been anything that Ryan or another young prospect can't deliver cheaper.

by Ray Lankford on Oct 16, 2007 3:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh, come on...
NOBODY foresaw the cliff that Kennedy's offense fell off this year.

And it is quite likely that he will return to his career norms (or thereabouts) next year, which are perfectly suitable given his contract.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Oct 16, 2007 6:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As I said befor
I didn't have a problem with that contract.  I expected much better from AK.  Sometimes you guess wrong...

by DriverZn on Oct 16, 2007 6:52 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here's the real question
Anyone think the Tigers would be up for a Porcello for Pineiro deal while we eat only 5 mil?  
Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Oct 16, 2007 3:32 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Two specific questions...
Great post today as always;
  1.  We talk alot about spending on this blog. What are the actual nuts and bolts figures for what this team brings in vs what it spends?  Does anyone know what the true operating budget of this team is?  Without specifics it seems pointless.  I know we ain't the Yankees but we're not Tampa either. We ranked 12th in payroll this year...what $ is actually available? I'm not saying that spending is the answer but knowing the figures would help.
  2.  What does our scouting/developmental map look like as far as latin america, asia and elsewhere? ...and how does this compare to other clubs?  Are there any regions that this team is missing as far as finding new talent?
  As bad as things seem, we are only one year out from making the world series the past 2 out of three years...I'm hoping DeWitt is not counting on that for future ticket sales.

by DesmetMattdNYC on Oct 16, 2007 4:11 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They are not doing much in the
urban areas-none of baseball is.  It's an area IMO ripe for the picking.....African American children at my school are rushing home to get to soccer practice....yes, I said soccer.  If you build it they will come.........

by jillsinmo on Oct 16, 2007 8:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cut the doomsday drivel about the rotation
Time for a reality check, folks.  Pineiro's 4.33 ERA and his peripherals are solid.  He has a strong, durable arm, good stuff, and a major league fastball.  Even if you project him to perform at Braden Looper's 2007 level (4.94 ERA), Pineiro shores up a rotation full of holes in the back end (leaving a strong need for a true #2).  

42 NL pitchers threw enough innings this year to qualify for the ERA title.  That's not quite 3 pitchers per team.  Looper's 4.94 ranked #34.  With 16 teams in the NL, there are 32 #1 and #2  pitchers, by definition.  By that crude calculation even Looper is a #3 pitcher.  

Yeah, I know that Looper fell short of a number of pitchers who didn't have enough innings to qualify, of course.  I will grant that his performance rated lower.  I'd say, #4.   Looper's ERA of 4.94 was not that far from  that of Cardinal alums Jeff Suppan (4.62) and Matt Morris (4.89), but Looper cost half as much.  Looper's ERA was a bit better than another Cardinal alum, Wood Williams (5.27), better than the fading Dontrelle Willis (5.17 - I hope the Cardinals do NOT trade for this guy and thereby repeat their mistake in trading young talent for a declining Mulder), and better than the #3 pitcher for the 2007 NL Champion Rockies, Josh Fogg (4.94).  

So let's cut the criticism of Pineiro and Looper.  The Cardinals are lucky to have both at their price, as #3 and #4 in their rotation, to go along with Wellemeyer or whomever else emerges as the #5.  All the team needs to do to have a solid rotation is to get a true #2 pitcher to go with Wainwright at #1 (no way do they have enough to offer in trade to get a stronger #1, nor do they have enough left in their budget to grab one off the free agent list).  Then Carpenter and Mulder will be a bonus if they can contribute eventually.  

Keep in mind that the Cardinals gave 50 starts last year to Maroth, Thompson, and Wells.  Replacing their performance with solid players like Looper would have been enough to give the NL Central title to the Cardinals this year.  

So relax, the sky is not falling.  The rotation will be solid in 08 and, if Mulder or Carpenter can return to form, or if the Cards can pick up a #2 in July, the rotation will be very strong.

by CardsWin on Oct 16, 2007 10:24 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't like manny ramirez
yes, hold up your hands and cheer, while watching the ball sail out, and your team is still down by four.  He makes José Reyes look quiet and humble.

by Valatan on Oct 16, 2007 10:37 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ther should be a timer that players must beat
to first or they are declared out.  That would prevent such stupidity.
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Oct 16, 2007 11:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good idea in theory
But Yadier Molina would never beat such a clock.

by stl tyler on Oct 16, 2007 11:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As if he didn't look stupid enough
the picture of his great pose w/ the scoreboard at the top of the screen made him look like a bigger fool.

Look at the scoreboard, Manny, before posing after a homer!

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 11:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Manny being Manny
whatever...that's such a lame cover, I don't care if he is a future Hall of Famer, he's a horrible example for kids and for the game of baseball.

I don't understand why Cleveland's pitchers haven't taken offense to his over celebrating of the homeruns he hits.

I probably don't blame them for doing much in such a high stakes series like this but come spring of 2008 I would think Manny gets one up around the ears.

by KYCards on Oct 16, 2007 11:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cleveland doesn't need to retaliate
3 games to 1 is all that's needed.

(Hopefully gonna be 4 games to 1 come 48 hours from now)

Re-acquire Edgar Renteria

by Mr Redbird on Oct 17, 2007 4:03 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Did Joe Buck really
just call Manny Ramirez "Man-Ram"? I always took that as a dirty insult nickname...

by TICY on Oct 16, 2007 10:39 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Layoff
I've seen some posts on here about people being worried about Colorado's long layoff and about how bad it hurt Detroit last season, and came upon this interesting piece of information.  Since the playoffs were expanded to three tiers in 1995, six teams have faced a five day layoff between the LCS and the World Series.  Of the six, five won the World Series.

Not that that kind of statistic really means anything, but I sure would've thought it'd be the other way around.  

by stl tyler on Oct 16, 2007 11:13 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

wow
based on commentary from espn etc, I never would have guessed that was the case.

Good info to have...

by SleepyCA on Oct 16, 2007 11:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Detroit lost because they choked
last year, not because they were "cold" or "out of sync."  
The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Oct 17, 2007 7:37 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is anyone else bothered
by the overwhelming number of uncompetitive playoff games we've had this postseason? I really believe that an Indians-Rockies WS will be competitive but these 7-3, 10-3, 6-1 games are getting old!

by chuckb on Oct 16, 2007 11:23 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I love close games too
BUT if the team taking the beating is the Red Sox I don't mind.

Their egomaniacs cough Manny Ramirez cough can take a 7-3 beating as far as I'm concerned.

by KYCards on Oct 16, 2007 11:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ratings
Will a Cleveland/Colorado series gather even less viewers than we did last year?

by RedbirdRay on Oct 17, 2007 10:12 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the press
will bill the poopy out of this as the "feel good" WS.
"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on Oct 17, 2007 10:39 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Perhaps
they'll even bring up Cleveland's curse.

by spants on Oct 17, 2007 1:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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