That's precisely how I went about it.  Since a ton of pitchers have mixed roles, it first estimates starts and relief stats on the data and then extrapolates what's needed from there.  

And congratulations on your impending dadhood, Erik. Just make sure you make him bend the bill of his Cardinals cap.

Career is even a larger delta.
OBP .378 vs .316

I'll admit that JRod is a small sample size but I would rather he get a chance to show what he can provide that vs JuanE who we pretty much know will suck.

2005 OPS:

vs LH:  .737 (27 AB)
vs RH:  .834 (122 AB)

2006 OPS:

vs LH: 1.240 (13 AB)
vs RH:  .772 (170 AB)

Memphis OPS:

vs LH:  .612 (23 AB)
vs RH: 1.018 (42 AB)

I can't find anymore minor league splits, I know all those samples are small.

Also I have Encarnacion's career OPS as this:

vs LH: .837
vs RH: .734

As an aside, for all you people that want to throw a gazillion dollars at Weaver. Overpaying for marginal talent sucks. Whatever your opinion on JRod and Thompson is, Looper and Encarnacion certainly aren't worth $28.5 million over the two of them, if anything at all.

It makes me angry every time I think about it.

That's why I like Duncan. He was protected too somewhat but there were times when he had to go out there on a regular basis regardless of the situation. And generally he came through better than expected.

I too would like to see JRod given more opportunity to show what he can do. But I suspect Tony's decision is based on what he has observed about the players' strengths and weaknesses.

Thompson doesn't really translate as well as Wainwright does - the strikeout loss pushes him down into the danger zone.  He goes from 3.60 in relief to 8-8, 4.47 as a starter.

Kenny Lofton signed a 1/3.5 contract, and while his 750-800 OPS is OBP driven, it's not like that's a bad thing. He's a true CF, too.

There were plenty of trade options, I'm sure.  

Juan's not exactly winning gold gloves either, while he's an ok player, $15 million for about the worst regular RF in the NL is not helping a bleak situation.

You should trip and fall over a decent glove corner outfielder, with a replacement level OPS. If there isn't a great option (and Gooch/JRod platoon would have been just fine) it's not like it's a good idea to compound the problem with a hamstringing contract for a marginal player.

I'm going with Driver on this one, I think it's a philosophical issue.

Looper and Juan aren't worth $28.5 million over Thompson and J-Rod, or even Ludwick and Kinney. Not that I am advocating Suppan for Suppan money, that contract was downright terrible, but there's most of your Suppan money right there.

Both of those contracts were knee-jerk moves for middling players that were "proven" (to be averageish, at best) when there were just as good, maybe better, especially considering the payroll implications, options, in-house.

Pay difference makers difference maker money, fill in the holes from within or with one-year contracts.

I'm sorry if my comments come across that way to you. I certainly don't intend to do anything except give my opinion on the issue at hand. If there's something in the tone of my posts that upsets you, I'll do what I can to change that.

If it's merely that I'm disagreeing with you or the general tone of the board, it seems to me that that's what a forum should be about. I'm not writing to make you happy or unhappy; I'm merely stating my opinion. Is that all right?

Tony and Walt obviously make use of numbers in making their decisions but they combine these numbers with personal observation, medical records and common sense.

To complain that Juan has a bad contract or that JRod doesn't get enough playing time based on a computer projection ignores too many of the other elements that are important in baseball and in life.