I wrote a few days ago I thought it would be fun to open a discussion on the Hall of fame candidates.  Originally I anticipated discussing around 12 of them.  I doubt there will be the time or interest now, so I'll stick to the guys most likely to get in- other than Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn, since both are sure bets.  Like I said before, Mark McGwire has been discussed and Jose Canseco seems destined to be blackballed for steroids, so that leaves the top vote getters last year:

Jim Rice
Rich "Goose" Gossage,
Andre Dawson,
Bert Blyleven ... who is discussed here    
Lee Smith,
Jack Morris
and Tommy John.

And in case you'd like the reference, the rest of the ballot is here: Harold Baines, Albert Belle, Dante Bichette, Bobby Bonilla, Scott Brosius, Jay Buhner, Dave Concepcion, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Steve Garvey, Orel Hershiser, Wally Joyner, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Paul O'Neill, Dave Parker, Bret Saberhagen, Alan Trammell, Devon White and Bobby Witt.

I know some of you mentioned Albert Belle as a worthy candidate, but given his low vote totals from last year, I think that discussion deserves to be tabled behind at least Rice, Dawson and Goosage.

After January 9th, I'd like to shift focus to some of the Veteran's Committee nominees that have a St Louis connection: Ken Boyer, August Busch Jr, Curt Flood, Whitey Herzog, Jim Kaat, Marty Marion, and Joe Torre.  Voting results will be announced February 27th.

This diary, I'd like to focus on Jack Morris.  This is his 8th year on the ballot.  He pitched for 18 seasons, mostly with the Tigers, from 1977-1994.  

Why Jack Morris?  Well he is kind of the anti-Blyleven.  While Blyleven was better than his stats (at least wins) suggest, Morris probably wasn't as good.  Blyleven didn't get a lot of recognition for his pitching, while Morris did.

It's also kind of interesting that Blyleven beat Morris when they went head-to-head in the postseason.  But a few years after Blyleven left Minnesota, Morris arrived as a free agent and he won perhaps the biggest game in the Twins' franchise history as recounted here.

The case for Jack Morris:
The case for him centers on his relative dominance in the 1980s and early 1990s
He led all pitchers in the 1980s with 332 starts, 162 wins, 133 complete games and 2,443 innings.  
He had three 20-win seasons (1983, 1986, 1992).
He had 11 seasons with 200-plus innings and three 200-strikeouts.
He received Cy Young Award votes seven times finishing 3rd twice (1981 & 1983), 4th (1991), 5th (1986 & 1992), 7th (1984), 9th (1987),
He made 14 Opening Day starts, tied with Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, Walter Johnson and Cy Young for second-most ever, two behind Tom Seaver (16)
A five time all-star, he started in 1981, 1985 and 1991.  He had a 2.53 ERA with eight strikeouts in 10 2/3 ASG innings
1991 World Series MVP with a 2-0 record, 1.17 ERA, including a 10-inning 1-0 victory in Game Seven
Member of three World Series Champions: 1984 Tigers, 1991 Twins and 1992 Blue Jays.

His 254 wins are 40th on the all-time list.  Relatively few non-HoFers are above him: Tommy John (25), Bert Blyleven (26), Jim Kaat (30), Bobby Mathews (23), Tony Mullane (28), Jim McCormick (37) and Gus Weyhing (38).  If you scan down that list as far as #50, you will only find two more non-HoFs: Jack Quinn and Jack Powell.  Mathews, Mullane and Powell are interesting themselves and they have been mentioned before.  I'll post something on McCormick, Weyhing and Quinn, who is one of the more amazing players in baseball history, in the discussion.

His 2478 strikeouts are 31st all-time.  That is more than Sandy Koufax (#38, 2396), Robin Roberts (#40, 2357), Jim Palmer (#48, 2212), or Pete Alexander (#49, 2198).

His 3824 innings are 48th all time.  That is more than Jim Bunning (#53 3760) or Waite Hoyt (#52, 3762).

He had his share of recognition with the writers.  As the table below shows, he awards overall compare favorably to Don Sutton and Phil Neikro.  He even had more all star appearances than Fergie Jenkins or Gaylord Perry.

The case against Jack Morris:
Like I said, the biggest knock against him is that he wasn't as good as his wins indicate.  The composite record of his teams is 1515-1297; that's a very good .539 winning percentage or 87 wins a season for a team.  The only truly bad team he ever played for was the 1989 Tigers (59-103) and he was 6-14 with a 4.86 ERA for them.  His overall era was 3.90 compared to a league average of 4.08.  His Career ERA+ of 105 is good, but not even within sniffing distance of the top 100.

While his 2478 strikeouts are pretty good, he has some less than hall-worthy company: Mark Langston is right behind him on the all time list with 2464.  Good, not great pitching contemporaries like Jerry Koosman (#27, 2556),  Chuck Finley (#22, 2610) and David Cone (#21, 2686) and Frank Tanana (#20, 2773) and are all ahead of him.  The same can be said for his 3824 innings.  Charlie Hough (#49, 3801) is right behind him; ahead of him are: Jerry Koosman (#46, 3839), Dennis Martinez (#39, 4000) and Frank Tanana (#34, 4188).  His career stats are good overall, but not close to automatic pass.  If Bert Blyleven, Tommy John or Jim Kaat couldn't get in on the strength of their overall career numbers, I'm not sure for how much Morris' count.

Conclusions:
After running through the numbers I have to admit Morris has a much more compelling case than I previously thought.  He was pretty dominant in the 80s and early 90s and his career numbers, while not good for an automatic pass are within hall of fame range.  By reputation (which counts a lot for the HoF), he was as good of a starter as any in the 1980s.  In any case, I can't imagine him getting the vote this year.  Last year he only got 41%.  Given the recent history of the vote, he will have to inch up year by year.  

So what does everybody think?  I don't think there is a chance he is inducted this year, but should Jack Morris be a hall of famer in 2007?  Should he ever be a hall of famer?