Oh no! Not another prospect ranking list!
Back to my usual weekend blogging here at VEB, thanks everyone for your congratulations. Believe or not, I've been sleeping ok. Mom and baby have been great.
It's been somewhat of a slow week news-wise, other then maybe the announcement of the All Star Game coming in to StL in 2009. Many of you may know I've starting blogging the Cardinal farm system, and it's been a very fun learning experience so far. With not much else to talk about, I thought I'd throw out my personal picks for the top 15 list of the Cardinal prospects. Feel free to argue, these things are usually fun to look back and laugh at years from now. With props to John Sickels, I'll put my little 2 cents beside each player.
First a quick explanation. Originally, I had planned on doing this all scientific like, basing my judgments on all sorts of peripherals and such, but they don't tell you the whole story. For example, a lot of experts are sort of down on Nick Stavinoha after a mediocre season, but not many have taken notice that he was hitting .324/.347/.479 in 74 at bats the first month of the season and then he injured his ankle early May. He returned May 17 and struggled upon his return, hitting only .227 in 132 at bats until end of June. Since July until the end of the season he hit .332/.384/.556, including 8 homeruns in 214 at bats. Until that point, he had only hit 4 homeruns in 203 at bats. Or some have noted Ottavino needs to work on his control, which may be true and all, but what they don't take notice of is that Ottavino was learning to throw a new pitch, the sinker. Then you have other things like league averages, park factors, etc. It's just easier to go from the gut here.
- Colby Rasmus CF (I think we all can agree on this.)
- Jaime Garcia SP (K rate dropped some upon call up to A+, but good control and is an extreme groundballer.)
- Adam Ottavino SP (Good fastball/slider combo. 3/4 delivery, susceptible to lefties, southpaws hit .320/.417/.474 against.)
- Jon Jay LF (polished college hitter, high contact guy. Strong lower body suggests he could hit for more power, but that's not his game. Walked more then he struck out. Lefty. Tony Gwynn-light? There, I said it.)
- Blake Hawksworth SP (Very nice rebound from shoulder surgery, could be in rotation for good in '08.)
- Chris Perez (hard-throwing closer, mid-nineties fastball with a plus slider. Should be promoted aggresively.)
- Bryan Anderson C (line drive hitting catcher who rarely strikes out. A hitting catcher in St. Louis? The world has gone topsy-turvy.)
- Cody Haerther LF (Overcame an injury riddled first half to post a solid 2nd half.)
- Tyler Greene SS (52 stolen bases out of 56 attempts in his brief MiLB career. Lots of power, but strikes out a ton. Failed miserably in pitching dominated FSL, rebounded in Midwest League. Should make jump to Texas League, a more hitter-friendly place for him to continue to gain confidence.)
- Nick Stavinoha RF (See comment for Haerther.)
- Mark McCormick SP (Great fastball/curve, very high ceiling but command always an issue. Bit by injury bug last season.)
- Daryl Jones OF (Everyone loves his tools, but a long way away.)
- Mitch Boggs SP (If he was hittable at Palm Beach, I'm afraid what will happen to him at Springfield. I still think he's under-rated by most.)
- Blake King SP (potential sleeper, former juco strikeout leader had impressive debut for JC.)
- Mark Hamilton 1B (Pitchers adjusted to him after hot start, but lots of power.)
Narrowly missing the cut- P Troy Cate certainly deserves mention, considering his dominant season and recent winter league exploits. Also coming just short are OF Jon Edwards, SP Eddie Degerman, SP Tyler Norrick, RP Mike Sillman, SP Brad Furnish, SP Trey Hearne.
So there you have it. A quick note for when you look at some of the prospects. JC is very hitter friendly, so be easy on pitchers and tough on judging hitters. Same goes for Springfield, it's very homer happy. Quad Cities slighty favors pitchers, Memphis a bit more so. Don't get too excited about what a pitcher does at Palm Beach, it's very much a pitchers park and quite supressive against power hitters. Mark Worrell kinda proved that point last year. (See Dan Szymborski's minor league park factors.)
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hello birdos
How about..
I would put Narveson up there after he owned the PCL last year, and those other guys might be worth a mention.
Like the rundown in terms of potential though, I have enjoyed the site as well since I discovered it a couple of weeks ago.
club's plans for Narveson?
narveson probably
i'd like to see pomeranz miss more bats. he's a big guy at 6'7" 220, but needs to find an out pitch. he's only 22 and could start at AAA next year, so he's moving up the ladder and has time to develop. he missed starts due to a sore shoulder, keep an eye on that.
marti is a hacker, he strikes out in 30% of his ab's. he'll struggle to hit .260 in the majors, though he's got a lot of power. i just have a hard time calling a 30+ year old a prospect.
ryan to me seems like he would make a decent utility infielder, not a solid regular.
I would agree with that,
I was just more after your thoughts on those other guys than anything. Not that they deserved top 15 status.
I would say that Pomeranz considering his size has some upside professionally that plenty don't, and that Ryan and Marti have decent shots to contribute as bench players in the near future. Which is saying something I suppose. Like they may be worth carrying over Miles and Preston next year, depending on how this year goes and the pricepoint, if it were to come down to that or something.
nice list
Also, where do you rank the trio of college arms we picked up early in the draft(Furnish, Daley, Degerman)? Top 20? Top 30?
Trey Hearne. Old for his level, not a stuff guy, but clearly he knows how to get people out. I see Brad Thompson Lite, what about you?
His Swing partner in crime Adam Daniels, also quite old for Low A but he had a good year, start him at AA?
i think all 3
Dan Moylan
Obviously, I'm not suggesting he should replace someone on your list, or even in the list of honorable mentions. Just curious to know why he's playing so little at at so many levels the past two seasons.
i know he was battling injuries
Re-signed?
Young OF
Jon Jay projects to a decent OBP and fair OPS. He has enough speed. If PECOTA is correct he would be our best leadoff option.
Rasmus looks like he is a year off. But we have said the same about other young players and been surprised.
When did it happen?
Jump them both up to AA and let them feast on pitching first. IF Stavy or possibly Marti is ready, I could see one them maybe getting a shot. I guess it depends on whether or not P. Wilson or somebody else is brought in.
I really just hope Rasmus stays in the same path to be Edmonds' apprentice. And yes Jay had a great year, but one good (half) year in the low minors doesn't assure success. St. Louis is finally starting to build up some good prospects, something most of us haven't seen in quite some time.
you're probably right
We have an opening
Its not like Juan is a cornerstone to this team. The guy is barely above replacement level. If one of them shows they are ready for a shot, I way give it to them.
At some point we have to let the kids play and right now we have 3 crap options in RF at the major league level.
Agree Absolutely
I've been a little bit concerned that the Cards might re-sign P-Dub lately. He doesn't look to offer anything more than Ryan Ludwick, except better defense.
A player who looked to be better than Wilson who came up while looking through Dan's ZiPS spreadsheet is Adam Hyzdu. He killed AAA lefties in limited plate appearances last season (.413/.520/.744 line over 121AB) and Sackmann's system likes his defense in all three outfields. (The splits are at that link, too.)
Unfortunately, he's signed with the Fukuoka Hawks.
Here's hoping they let Wilson sign elsewhere and give Ludwick a shot. Or maybe Cody Haerther, Marti, or—heaven forbid—John Rodriguez.
I wouldn't mind if the outfielder they're awaiting medical reports on turned out to be Bernie Williams. He hit lefties well last season and should play one more season to get the thirteen HR he needs to reach 300.
Haerther too
What's the latest on these prospects not listed?
3b - Travis Hansen
c- Michel Hernandez
of - Reid Gorecki
here goes
hernandez was hurt for much of the year with a strained oblique, he hit .274/.336/.337 for memphis. i'm not sure, but i think he's a minor league FA.
gorecki was on fire for the month of april, he hit 9 hr in 98 ab's, hitting .306/.352/.684. He was miserable for the rest of the season, his next best month was august when he hit .236/.325/.387. he was called up for a the last few weeks of the season to AAA, but stunk there too. he was recently removed from the 40 man roster.
Hernandez and Hanson
I'm hoping the Angels cut Dallas McPherson, since he needs back surgery and hasn't contributed anything at the MLB level for them and we can pick him up on some kind of creative contract.
Good thought
Parasite
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263152.html
welcome back erik
i wouldn't put any of these guys in the top 15, but these are my own favorites who i'd add to the worth-a-mention list: andy cavazos and dennis dove both have an outside chance to break camp with the cardinals, and mark worrell will be pitching at memphis this year; any of those three might become serviceable middle relievers. mike parisi keeps the ball down and missed some bats in double A last year; i think if he maxes out his upside he could develop into a back-end starter someday. outfielder nathan southard had a nice debut in short-season A; old for his league but apparently has some ability. another '06 draftee who might be worth keeping an eye on: gerry daley, an extreme groundballer who allowed 0 hr in 74 inn at short-season A.
finally, i agree with the poster above who mentioned adam daniels. he is a groundball machine who started slow last year due to injury last year and apparently had some atrocious luck ---- .351 batting avg on balls in play. he struck out nearly a man per inning, had a 3:1 k/bb ratio, and allowed only 3 hr in 138 innings. his biggest asset: he suffocates left-handed hitters. faced 136 of them last year at low A and struck out 52, or 39 percent. yes, he is old for his league (23 last year in low A); still might have a future as a LOOGY.
i meant to make mention
Thanks Eric....
I cannot really disagree with the list, but I will tell you on personal observation that I really like Chris Perez and Bryan Anderson, having seen both of them in the Quad Cities.
Perez: I saw Perez the night after seeing Brad Lidge. Now, granted, this was when Lidge was struggling a bit, but Perez's "plus" slider is for real. Its' absolutely nasty and has a late break on it. I maintain that he'll be in Memphis before the end of the year. He's for real. Sickels gave him a B-, and he's the man, so I cannot call him out on that, but my man crush would give him a B. I cannot describe how absolutely sick that slider is.
Anderson: This is a guy that we should all watch, as he just turned 20 in December but was a mid season all star and end of season all star. He's built like Jason Varitek, short (they list him at 6 foot 1, but I'm that and I was looking down on him) and solid. He runs the bases extremely well and is quick for a catcher. He only hit 3 dingers, but hit 29 doubles. He has power potential. If you're not drooling yet, he had a .377 OBP and . 794 OPS. He's far away, but his potential is there.
I mentioned this guy to Eric on his website, but a guy who has run under the radar is Jose Martinez. He's a twenty one year old Venezulian prospect. The Cards sent him to winter ball and he didn't perform too well, .304/.637. I don't know anything about park or league effects for the Venzeulian league, but when I saw this kid, I was impressed. He's got some raw tools and plays the field quite well. He's another to keep an eye on
I must admit my bias here. My wife and I went, along with my mother in law to see the Swing in Beloit and got a chance before the game to talk to all of the guys. There is no tunnels in Beloit and the players have to walk through the crowd, or lack thereof, to get to the field. All of them: Mark Hamilton, Chris Perez, John Jay, Bryan Anderson, etc. were great guys and signed autographs for us, chatted, and were so accomodating. I think I might have been the first person to ask John Jay for an autograph; he was amazed by an offical MLB ball.
So, I'm rooting for all these guys. While our system would be middle of the pack to lower eschelon, this still the best minor league class we've had in a really, really long time.
Don't look at Anderson's PECOTA....
Rasmus
Any insight as to where Rasmus starts 2007? I'd love to see him in Springfield. I run a magazine here and in our 2007 city-wide preview we called him the Athlete to Watch...assuming he plays here. I'm less worred about a black eye for the mag than I am missing out on a great prospect.
by itsalemmon1019 on Jan 21, 2007 11:39 AM EST reply actions
no insight
AA sounds about right
I have different reasons for wanting both of the hopeful future St. Louis starters to begin in Springfield.
As everyone already knows, Rasmus is the best prospect we have had in awhile. A year or most of one at AA, a late season promotion to Memphis, AAA next year and then a mid-season call-up to the big squad would be perfect. Nothing works out perfectly, but I can always pray.
As for Greene's case, I followed him at Georgia Tech and was very happy when we drafted him. After rebounding at my home-town (of course now they are Cardinals) Swing of the Q-C, I would think his confidence is back. Now it all depends on who is slated to be the SS at Springfield. Anybody know?
Baseball Prospectus...
Erik--add age and level to list?
as well as the last level they played in...
I'm wondering about Hawksworth
Great topic for a Sunday. Glad to see you back and glad things are going great!
I also noticed
lambert's not a lost cause
Great List
- Tyler J in 6-10
- Josh K, S. Pomeranz in 12-18.
- Chris Lambert in 10-13
- I'd drop Jay to the 6-8 range
I'm also heavily pulling for Rick A! Here's hoping he tears up AAA this year and gets to the show.
Cory Doyne would be in the 15-20 range on my list as well, but we lost him to Baltimore (developed him then lost him, I just don't understand how that can happen)...
Great topic. Thanks.
Baeball America's list
- Rasmus
- Jaime Garcia
- Perez
- Hawksworth
- Jay
- Anderson
- McCormick
- Kinney (in my view no longer a mere prospect)
- Jones
- Boggs
- Ryan
- Hamilton
- Lambert
- Narveson
- Haerther
- Greene
- Herron
- Tyler Johnson (3 Tylers in a row, the last in the Kinney category)
- Stavinoha
- Hearne
- Pham
- Furnish
- Worrell
- Dove
- Sillman
- Jon Edwards
- Shane Robinson
- Schumaker
- Cazana-Marti
by MikeG on Jan 21, 2007 3:00 PM EST reply actions
Wow.
I'm really excited to see what Jon Edwards does this year.
Daric Goold
by Rob H on Jan 21, 2007 7:40 PM EST up reply actions
Hearne
I acknowledge, as Mateodh pointed out above, that Hearne's a bit old for his level, but to me that just says he needs to be promoted more aggressively. Assuming he keeps on pitching well, I'd sure like to see what he can do at AA by the second half of this year.
Yeah...
Whoops, wrong Jon Edwards.
My thoughts on Hearne. First off, 21st in a weak system is by no means a good ranking. Pretty much, that amounts to being an average prospect at best. The 21 number is as much a benefit of being in a very weak system as it is having skills.
Baseball America's book? How does it compare to Sickels and Baseball Prospectus' minor league guides? The others are less expensive and I'm just wondering how much detail goes into the BA book that I might not get in the others.
Thanks,
B20
Baseball America book
by MikeG on Jan 21, 2007 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
Infielders?
Are there any other guys out there that project to these positions, or who are under the radar, sleeper-types at any of these positions.
Or is this a huge void that needs to be addressed soon? We are deepest with pitching prospects, then with outfielders. Catching looks pretty good, too. First base is pretty much Mark Hamilton, but with Albert, that is enough.
The first round in 2007 would be a good time to grab a primo SS/3B prospect; and middle infielders should be a priority in the middle rounds, too.
Couldn't agree more, Nico
Great post, by the way, Erik. My only issue with your list would be the absence of Troy Cate. I know he's a little bit older, but the sheer weight of his ridiculous whip numbers (.70) is enough to get me on the bandwagon.
by the red baron on Jan 21, 2007 7:12 PM EST up reply actions

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