Good comparison - very persuasive.  The only unquantifiable item in your comparison has to do with makeup.  

Aura's - Can't you just tell the difference in the QB influence with Jeff Garcia vs. Eli Manning or with Soup vs. Marquis?  Or Ponson vs. Williams??  Even if these guys put up the same numbers the team would win more with one vs. the other (imo).  Weird way of saying I wonder what Franklin projects like on the mound...  

Is he like Kile or Woody or Soup or Matty Mo OR
Ponson, Marquis, etc. etc.

As Joe blow Cardinal fan, with numbers the same, that projection still makes a difference.  Seems semi-undefinable.

Weird post I know...

I have to admit you have persuasive arguements for Franklin...  Esentially the Cards take a league average-ish pitcher and with a combination of good defense and decent run support, they make him a servicable #4 or #5.

I can buy that, but what bothers me is the trend I see in his WHIP.  My cursory analysis tells me he is getting worse in this significant way.

Another part of the arguement I find difficult to believe fully is that the Cardinals defense will help Franklin (or any flyball pitcher) significantly.  Edmonds has been a gold-glover since he came from Aneheim, but the guy will be 37 next year and he is bond to loss a step.  I think Juan is a better than average defender in right, but he is erratic and Young Dunc is below average at best in left.  Also condsider that groundbally types like Supps probably have more baserunners erased in double plays than flybally guys like Franklin.  Anychance you could dig up the number of double-plays each of these guys induced?    

Like Lawless, I wonder what kind of mental make-up Franklin has.  Maybe we give Suppan too much credit, but it seemed like for the most part when he needed to get out of a jam the most, he just knew how to pitch.  More to the point he had a plan on opposing batters and executed them well.  I know I am biased to his post-season performances, but I still wonder if that is something Franklin can replicate in anyway.

As you wrote, what worries me the most, especially if we resign Weaver, is that one of these guys takes innings away from younger, cheaper options: Narvie and Thompson.  I'm inclined to believe either one of these guys can replicate the performance of most of the inning-eaters we have or will sign over one year or so.

back end rotation option but it seems like we have a lot of back end types with upside.  What I mean is that we shouldn't really expect much more than 4/5 type numbers from Wells and Mulder when he returns.  And that's fine if you have other pitchers who can perform like front end starters in Carpenter, Reyes and Wainwright.

Of all the pitchers we have Franklin has the least upside to me.  At best he's gonna be average.  I'd rather stick with Thompson or Narveson and see what they can do for cheap (both this year and moving forward if they succeed) than buy a Ryan Franklin type given the pitchers that we've already signed.

between Soup and Franklin is that Soup has shown the ability to pitch brilliantly for stretches and carry the team on his back, while Franklin doesn't have that ability.

Looking back over the past 3 years, Franklin's best month as a starter was July of '05 when he posted a 3.93 era.

Soup on the other hand consistently lays down dominant stretches that have often come late in the season:

'06 second half    2.39 era
'06 August         3.44 era
'06 Sept/Oct       2.15 era

'05 second half    2.78 era
'05 August         2.63 era
'05 Sept/Oct       1.93 era

In '04 he had a better first half than second half, and yes he had really bad months to match the good ones in both '05 and '06, but I would argue that it's better to have a guy like Soup because there's always the chance he'll peak late in the season and carry you to a championship, like he did last season. Sure, some season's he'll sink you, but Franklin is almost guaranteed never to be your best pitcher in a seven game series.

My initial reaction to the signing was based on his peripherals -- k/9, etc. but you're right in saying that they're very close to Suppan's.  I guess a lot of the point is that, had Franklin spent those years in the NL w/ the Cards' defense, he would have been very comparable to Suppan.  That's something I hadn't thought of.  And your point about ground ball pitchers giving up more unearned runs is a good one.

Then, what do we make of this.  One thing that had intrigued me by the Franklin signing is that, despite being a fly ball pitcher for most of his career, he became a very strong ground ball pitcher last year.  Maybe it was a fluke of necessity, pitching in Philly and Cincy but I thought that might bode well for his time in St. Louis.

OTOH, if he is now a ground ball pitcher, doesn't that mean that his "ra" column will rise relative to Suppan's, thus increasing the difference between the two somewhat?  In other words, he'll now give up more unearned runs also so the difference between the two, which had narrowed by the switch to the NL w/ the Cards' defense, will again widen?  

No. 5 starter? We have at least three already. Aren't there some numbers between 1 and 5 we've forgotten about?

you've sold me. my initial reaction to the signing was "blech!" but we'll just see how it goes. his gb% has risen over the past 2 seasons, and i'm wondering how big the Dunc factor can be here. For $1 mil, it's really nothing to complain about.

Larry, your analysis as alwasy educates me.  But reading your post left me wondering: do any of the modified stats you metion (FIP, ERC, RA) account for situational pitching?  If I understood them (always a risk), the first 2 appear to me to isolate each at bat and its result, without accounting for what happens in say an inning as a whole.  So for example, does the pitcher fall apart once he gives up that double off the wall, or does he bear down and staunch the flow?  

If I'm right, the stats we're using treat pitching simply like a coin-flip, only more complex, in which we assume the results will ultimately regress to that pitcher's norm, but one flip has absolutely no influence on the next.  But I don't think that's right; one of the starkest differences I notice between good and bad pitchers is how they buckle down, or as TLR would say, avoid the crooked number.  Think of Maddux, Clemens, or even Carp, versus, oh, say Marquis.  I would bet if we found near-identical "stat" games for this bunch (ie, oba, slg, bb, k, etc.), we'd find the result in terms of runs scored to be dramatically different.  

I guess I'm saying at the end of the day its about runs allowed, as much as all the other factors.  You suggest this as well above in discussing RA. While I was skeptical of the first two tools' effect of narrowing the gap between Franklin and Suppan, RA does seems to confirm their conclusion. Still, we would all acknowlege that simple Runs Allowed is a very blunt instrument, ignoring many important factors (defense, park size, competition, etc.) that the other, more isolated tools try to take into account.  My question for all the VEB experts is whether anyone has tried to refine RA, keeping what I think is its best attribute of situational relevance, while adjusting for some of these other factors?  Or has anyone even tried the analysis I dreamed up above, finding and comparing near identical stat games for different pitchers and comparing the outcome in runs produced?

Thanks as always for your hard work.  I feel like this is my version of Winter Ball, if only it felt like Mexico outside.

Sign as many pitchers as we can. Last year we were in desperate need of them and we got Weaver midseason. Plus on the flip side, if one of these guys pans out then we can possibly trade said pitcher for that impact bat and then Mulder joins the rotation. It just seems logical that Jock is banking on using one of these guys as trade bait midseason. Everybody needs pitching. Dunc fixes a few of these guys, and we have A-Rod* with BOB in August.

*Or whoever

flyball tendencies will play out with what projects to be an average outfeild defensively?  

Also do you have numbers for double plays induced by Suppan versus Franklin?  It seems to me that could be a huge factor in explaining Suppans lower than projected ERA.

If we resign Weaver [gag], won't this compound our rotation situation even more?  i.e. how many #5 starters do you need to fluch Wagonmaker and Reyes from the rotation?

Lastly, do these signings remind you even vaguely of the last offseason when we wasted a lot of money on fungible players instead of investing in a true difference-maker?  Tho, I think this offseason there haven't been (m)any guys worth going after with high dollars.

 

According to Matt Leach on the main site.  Franklin took the last spot on the 40 man creating one more hurdle to signing weaver.  He also says the Cards aren't very interested b/c of the deal he is seeking.

has the better info. Leach is basically on vacation right now.

It could also be that Leach's analysis is simply based upon the pre-Christmas buzz, which was that Weaver wanted a 4/40 deal or somesuch.

He may have come back to reality.

Link here.

just wanted to go on the record saying i dont think franklin will make the team out of spring training. thompson&narvi are younger, and better in my opinion. he isnt half the pitcher sup was. no offense to the best Cardinals blog on the web intended. but i dont think the guy is worth the $1-$2mil they are planning on spending. of course since tony and dave like him, they think he isnt half bad. but i've seen him pitch. and he reminds me of one jason marquis,without all his skill. some allready have said that very thing. and i agree with them. it's a waste of money. just like sid was last season. although i still think he wasnt all bad for us.

if weaver does in fact come back, there will be no room for ryan, and the bullpen will be full. so he goes to memphis or is cut. and even if weaver does not come back, i feel pretty good saying that thompson will beat him out for the 5th spot. only thing that might keep him around is the money spent, and for some reason tony&dave like him. this is the best blog about the Cardials, and i dont usually disagree with lboros, but i strongly disagree about this. franklin isnt the average pitcher your post today tired to show us he is. i've seen him pitch. and he is terriable. flat out terriable.

now watch him go out and win 18 games for us this year, including the series clinching game 6 of the world series.