Extension for Eckstein?

by chuckb on Jan 14, 2007 1:13 PM EST Comment 32 comments

Today's p-d mentioned that the Cards were looking into discussing a contract extension for Eckstein, whose contract expires this year. They're not sure yet whether or not Eckstein's interested in doing this right now. In any case, I thought it might be a good time to discuss whether or not the Cards SHOULD extend Eckstein's contract.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/ED89023DA8F4E3BD862572630016AE22 ?OpenDocument

He is, of course, the reigning World Series MVP. He also turns 32 next week meaning that he'd begin the first year of his new contract at 33. In 2006, his OPS was under .700 and his OBP was higher than his SLG, though an OBP of .350 is pretty good. He is a pretty good defensive SS who has improved his arm strength greatly but it certainly figures to get worse as he ages. Eckstein doesn't strike me as the kind of player who will age well, either. In fact, last year's PECOTA has him out of baseball in 2010 which would be the final year of a 3 year contract that would begin next year.

He does, of course, bring intangibles to the team that can't be measured in stats and SS is a position you can't just throw anybody into. Brendan Ryan is the only player we have even close to being ready to assume the position and, despite a good season in the Arizona Fall League, he is not considered a top prospect even in our relatively thin system. Tyler Greene is still probably 3 years away, if he ever makes it. The free agents available next year include Omar Vizquel, Michael Young, Carlos Guillen, and Juan Uribe (who may not be "free" after all). Omar's still an outstanding defender but he's 100 years old, a good fit for the Giants. Young and Guillen are good offensively, but no better than average defensively and Young probably will get a contract near 4-40.

The point is that there aren't a lot of good alternatives out there but I have serious reservations about extending Eckstein 3 years. I can't help but think that he wouldn't accept a 2 year deal b/c someone will likely give him 3. So, should we extend him, pass and try another free agent or hope that Ryan could do the job, or wait and see how '07 goes, risking that we could lose him?

Poll

Should the Cards

extend Eckstein for 3 years now

102 votes

wait until the end of '07 and let him become a free agent

76 votes

pass and try to find another SS

35 votes

213 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 32 comments

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Comments

excellent diary subject

it all depends. he was having an outstanding season last year before the concussion --- his OPS was .761 as of june 15, which is the day he got hurt; that on the heels of his .758 OPS in 2005. so he kept himself at .750 for a season and a half, which is very good. his slugging avg over that season and a half was in the .380s, and his OBP was in the .370s --- both figures are more than acceptable from a leadoff hitter.

after the concussion he obviously wasn't the same player --- uncharacteristically high strikeout rate, absolutely no power. from june 20 through the end of the season, his OPS was .615 --- well below replacement.

if we assume that .750 represents eckstein's true current ability level when healthy, then i can see giving him the extension. then the question becomes, how much do you pay him? the going rate for starting SSs is pretty high. furcal makes $13m a year; jimmy rollins gets $8m a year. the pirates foolishly gave jack wilson $7m a year. christian guzman, a terrible player, gets $4m a year. julio lugo signed for $9m . . . . .

eckstein's a two-time all-star and postseason MVP; he's going to ask for top dollar. and i wouldn't give it to him. i love eckstein, but he's not worth that kind of money over three years.

but . . .

the free-agent market looks very thin after next season, so there won't be a lot of options via that route. eckstein's a fan favorite. the pressure to re-sign him will be tremendous. so there's a good chance he's gonna get a big chunk of payroll.

by lboros on Jan 14, 2007 1:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

eckstein

doesn't seem like the type of player that look for top dollar. I mean, for he gave away his corvette so he can continue to drive around in his honda... obviously he couldn't be happier here in st. louis, i think if any player would give the cards the hometown discount, it would be eck, and negotiating with him now verses waiting it out a la soup maybe wise, esp. with the aforementioned thin SS market coming up.

i think his true ability does lie in somewhere in the middle of where you stated, i wouldn't count on any 05 repeats. brendan ryan would be a servicable replacement of Eck IMO after 07, but he's untested and the GM, manager, fans, and teammates all love Eck so i'm sure they'll get it done.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 14, 2007 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

the Cards would have to overpay to keep him, but we will have to offer 3 years. I think Eck will care more about the years than the $$ and it's the years I'm concerned about. It's also not like we could move him to 2B after this year since we have 2 more years of Kennedy (though he'll be tradeable).

My suspicion is that the Cards will resign him but I'm not sure that's the right move.

by chuckb on Jan 14, 2007 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So much for this idea

I was hoping to say with the money the team would have next winter, an upgrade at shortstop could be made with Michael Young. Well, he has an option for 08 and more than likely a long-term deal soon.

http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070109&content_id=1775988&vke y=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex

There really aren't a lot of options out there, but Ryan could always have a monster year? It is just looking more likely that Eck will get extended, but for how long and how much?

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Jan 14, 2007 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Your Assumption

Dave will ask for top dollar shows your level of knowledge on his personality and record. I would be surprised if he asks for "top dollar", but he deserves a good payday. Don't sign Mulder, don't sign Weaver, don't sign Eckstein, who would we start if Walt listened to you? A stat matrix doesn't determine a guy like David Eckstein's value because it doesn't measure heart, attitude and leadership. In those categories, he's on the same level as Pujols.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on Jan 15, 2007 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

heart, value and leadership

awesome to talk about.

doesn't hit baseballs very far.

I'd refer you to the firejoemorgan blog for a more acerbic look at 'intangibles'

by azruavatar on Jan 15, 2007 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the "heart value leadership" clamor

is what i'm talkin about. walt will be under a ton of pressure to do the wrong thing . . .

by lboros on Jan 15, 2007 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Signing Eckstein is the wrong thing?

I disagreed with your assumption Dave will ask for the "top dollar", he will not. I think, however, that calling his intangibles worthless and saying his signing would be the "wrong thing" shows how in love with stats you guys truly are. I disagree and I won't link to FireJoeMorgan to see another opinion on "intangibles". Every team David Eckstein has been on in his entire life has been a winner. There were always people who said he wasn't as talented as his teammmates, yet he outdistanced them all. Renteria probably eclipses Dave in every statistical category save a very few, but I would much rather have Eckstein. I won't say why because his "intangibles" don't matter to you. They do matter to Tony and Walt and that is why the Cards are winners right now.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on Jan 15, 2007 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The cardinals are winners right now

because they have the best hitter in baseball and one of the top 5 starters. Add in a credible (if unsure) HOF candidate in center and a great 3b and that's where the wins come from.

David Eckstein's intangibles are not winning baseball games. The idea that his positive attitude somehow affects whether Chris Duncan can hit a homerun or Yadier picks someone off first base is ludicrous.

Eckstein is a good player if he can be had at the right price. That price is low because his actual baseball skillset is not very high. It's great that he's "beaten the odds" but that's not a reason to pay someone beyond their actual abilities. This kind of "he's a winner" mentality leads teams to hand out bad contracts to players that were fortunate enough to play on a WS team.

by azruavatar on Jan 15, 2007 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dude, did you even watch the World Series?

I love Pujols as much as anyone, but he did squat in the Series. Rolen deserved the MVP, but Eckstein was the better story, he was abig reason we won.
And, One more time, since you are very thick-headed: the whole point of my original post was to disagree with lboros' assumption Eckstein will want "top dollar" and he isn't worth it. He will sign for his market value, not what some goofy teams will pay Julio Lugo!
His attitude DOES affect other players, obviously you've never been on a team with poor attitudes, or many TEAMS at all.
This is all moot, since Jocketty thinks a helluva lot more of Eckstein than you guys do. He WILL sign an extension and be our shortstop for a few more years because of Cards fans that appreciate him, like me.
Finally, if you've ever been to Spring Training or watched players preparing for games, some players are leaders and set the tone for practice and drills and maintain a professional attitude for the team. Practice is the most important aspect of the game, and players like Eckstein (all 5'8" of him) ensure all of the guys on the team maintain the correct demeanor by example and verbal leadership.YOU don't understand that, I know. Players are just born good or bad, their stats say so. Bullshit. Here's to another 3 seasons with the best little man in baseball at SS.

A walk is a waste of three pitches-Bob Gibson

by orlando card on Jan 15, 2007 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure that we watched the same WS

because as good as Eckstein was, he didn't have the best series from the team (that'd be Rolen or Molina). And basing an assessment of any player on 5 games is a really bad idea, imo.

in any event, we just disagree on the importance of intangibles. I'm not an all stats guy (although I think they tell us alot about players). I think traditional scouting has a lot of value too. I like David Eckstein. I enjoy the way he plays. He makes a great storyline. He seems like a great guy. I still hope the Cardinals don't sign him to a very large dollar amount if they do extend him.

by azruavatar on Jan 15, 2007 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

to orlando card ---

i never said don't re-sign eckstein. i said don't overpay for him.

it's never a good idea to overpay for a player, even one who has a lot of qualities that don't show up in the stats. mike matheny had a lot of those qualities too, but when the giants bid him up too high the cardinals let him go. renteria brought a lot of intangibles and leadership qualities to the table, and the cardinals desperately wanted him back; they still weren't willing to overpay for him.

and they shouldn't overpay for eckstein.

by lboros on Jan 16, 2007 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and orlando, as for your assumption

that eckstein will accept a deep discount to stay in st louis --- don't assume he would do that. matt morris was a great character guy and wanted to stay in stl; he wouldn't play for what st louis offered. ditto renteria. ditto jeff suppan. ditto grudzielanek.

eckstein would be an idiot to leave $10m on the table to play in st louis. don't be disappointed, and don't hold it against eckstein, if he goes elsewhere for more $$$$.

by lboros on Jan 16, 2007 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What about a year extension?

I'm all in favor of extending him, mainly for what he brings to the table every day. He's a competitor, the team seems to feed off of him, and I think Kennedy and Eck would make a nice dp combo again.

Who knows, the season is a long grind, but extending him for a year this spring gives the Cards the option of seeing how he does this year. If he struggles this year, he's only under contract for one more season. If he has another good season, then maybe he gets two more years. Looks like a win-win to me.

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Jan 14, 2007 1:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I just don't see why

he'd take a 1 year extension. He'll get at least 3 from someone. People say pitchers are hard to find -- try finding a good shortstop! There just aren't that many. Suppan is much more easily replaced than Eckstein will be, but I'm just not sure I'd give him 3 years for his age 33, 34, and 35 seasons.

by chuckb on Jan 14, 2007 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who?

Eckstein isn't a normal SS though. He wasn't very valued when we signed him, and as you pointed out, he'll be 33 when the next contract starts.

I can't see him wanting to leave St. Louis, but money talks. I'm just not sure there will be a large market for him. He fits with the Cardinals as the lead-off hitter, but where else could he play with the same group as where he is now. The team even brought in his old partner.

I'd think he would sign a reasonable, team-friendly contract to stay where he is comfortable.

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Jan 14, 2007 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eck

Taking a simple view of a complex question, I would make Eck the following offer:

2 more years for $9M with team option on year 3 at $5M with a $1M buyout. I might be undervaluing Eck, but if he didn't take this (Adam Kennedy) money I'd let him walk...

Eck just isn't worth much more IMO. Worst case scenario is you have Miles starting next year at SS. Not good, but if the alternative is paying Eck $8M or more I'd rather see Miles out there at $1.5...

On the other hand a 33 year old SS isn't a big free agent splash (especially with slightly above average D and 350 OBP ceiling) if you are the Red Sox, Yanks or any other "big money" team. He just isn't worth more than $5M/yr IMO.

by Lawless on Jan 14, 2007 2:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good idea

Nobody knows what Eck is thinking. It doesn't hurt to offer a two-year contract with a team option for a third year now. I wouldn't guarantee three years, but I don't think he would turn down a 2-year deal.

Now when it comes to money, that is where it gets tough. Who can you compare him too? He really is in a class of his own. I don't think 5 million a year is out of the question, but if he wants anything over that -- play out the year and let him become a free agent.

Pujols just did WHAT...

by gforce on Jan 14, 2007 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Eck-stension

Personally, I really don't like the idea of extending Eckstein. I've said it before. He's already getting the absolute most he can possibly get out of his ability. Any kind of physical deterioration could lead to a big dropoff in performance. The unfortunate thing here is that everybody loves Eck, we all love watching him run to first after he walks, blah blah blah. Extending Eckstein doesn't make a whole lot of sense from a baseball perspective, but I think the emotional aspects of everyone's adoration for him could lead to a bad decision.

The Cardinals have a very average offense. They need to find places to upgrade it. Shortstop would be an awfully good place to do so. David Eckstein, as adorable as he is, does not give the team an upgrade of any sort, long term.

by the red baron on Jan 14, 2007 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

while i agree

with some of your reasoning, that doesn't answer anything...who do you replace him with?

Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 14, 2007 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Eckstein gets an extension

I wouldn't want anything less than a hometown bargain. He's an average SS both offensively and defensively. Given that he is so run of the mill, I'd rather get someone like Carlos Guillen who, while defensively average is way above average offensively.

2005 looks like an anamoly to me. He's miscast as a leadoff hitter in that he doesn't draw alot of walks or run the bases particularly well. He's maligned for his stature at SS but he seems to have decent range and get to the balls he needs to get to. I think he's eminently replaceable though.

Guillen is the same age as Eckstein but has a far better skill base from which to decline. He's really peaked in the last two years or so and I think he'll maintain his walk rate for a few more years. I'd rather overpay for Guillen for three years than pay for Eckstein.

That being said, I'd be really surprised if they don't extend him since a) he is a fan favorite b) I think of all the players on the team he is the most likely to give a hometown discount kinda deal. 3 years and 20M sounds about right to me given the market's ridiculousness lately.

by azruavatar on Jan 14, 2007 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Guillen

is clearly a better offensive player than Eckstein and, on any defensive comparison I've seen, seems to be average or a little above average defensively -- very similar to Eckstein. But if that's true, why is there talk among the Tigers about resigning him and moving him to 1B. Casey's only signed to a 1 year deal and, considering how difficult it is to find SS's, why move him to 1B if he's that good defensively. I can't help but think they know something we don't. Plus, it's a pretty big gamble putting all your eggs in Guillen's basket. He seems likely to resign w/ the Tigers to me.

by chuckb on Jan 14, 2007 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd guess it's because

a) Casey isn't that good
b) Guillen is that good and would benefit from less wear and tear on his body
c) They have some no hit all glove players in Santiago and Perez
d) The upgrade in defensive by moving Guillen and plugging in a defensive specialist at short would mean more than having both Casey and Guillen's offense

or something to that effect. I don't think it's anything more than a shift down the defensive spectrum (albeit an extreme one).

by azruavatar on Jan 14, 2007 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

have heart!

The guy has defied all odds, so I don't put too much stock in projections of his future. Besides, most people projected he would never make the big leagues but he fought to make it; I'm inclined to think he will fight tooth and nail to stay competitive as he ages.

As much as I love Eck, it wouldn't be the end of the world if we didn't extend him. However, given the choice I would definitely offer the extension since I think his benefits outweigh his risks.

by Elle on Jan 14, 2007 3:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

2006 Cardinals

I've been wondering whether the 2006 Cardinals are the first World Series Champions with two college walk-ons on their roster: David Eckstein and Randy Flores.

As for extending Eckstein, as long as there isn't a complete no-trade clause, it sounds like a good move to sign him to the best extension we can: two years with an option sounds smart. If Brendan Ryan has a big 2007, Eckstein shouldn't be hard to trade away for prospects. As has been pointed out, good shortstops are hard to find.

by liam on Jan 14, 2007 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't the defense of a guy who depends

so much on effort gonna decline significantly as he gets older?

by sdrone on Jan 15, 2007 11:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

that concerns me

more than the possible decline of his offense. And w/ Kennedy's signing, he can't be moved to 2B.

by chuckb on Jan 15, 2007 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Great Diary, houston

I would add to this point that Kennedy is (a) a better player than Eckstein playing at 2004 Ecsktein money, and (b) the way that Eckstein has to use his momentum and contort his entire body to make that throw to 1B I can't imagine him trying to turn a 6-4-3 double play as the "4."

I think something reasonable for Eckstein is 3 years at $5-6M. He was actually one of the better SS's in the league (especially if you subscribe to Win Shares, or Chris Dial's Zone Rating for defense) for a year and a half until that concussion that lboros mentioned earlier. At that rate though he is definitely hitting his wee li'l noggin' on the ceiling. There is probably a good reason that PECOTA hates him going forward.

by plh903 on Jan 17, 2007 5:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

only extend him at a discount.

Don't give him years unless he gives up dollars. Did we seriously let Renteria walk only to sign Eckstein to the same kind of ridiculous deal 2 years later?

In my book, Eckstein needs to prove he can still cut it for a full season before I even think about re-signing him to a multi-year deal. He wants to hold out for 3 years and bigger money - that's on him. We'll have no trouble finding at least 2/3 production at 1/3 the cost.

You want a shortstop? I can get you a shortstop, believe me. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it, believe me. Hell, I can get you a shortstop by 3 o'clock this afternoon... with nail polish.

by musial6 on Jan 15, 2007 11:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mark it zero!

by plh903 on Jan 17, 2007 5:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Frustrating Post to read

This was an extremely frustrating post for me to read for a couple of reasons. First, it sounds like half the people posting in here may as well be quoting straight from Moneyball, with all the references to stats, decline, age, and productivity. If ever there was a player that defies that mold it is Eckstein. How are PETCO stats or Zippers or whatever they're called going to predict Eckstein hits a grand slam in 05 to win a game against the braves? How do those predict that he will hit 3 doubles in game four of the World Series? I'm sorry but it's just not the way it works. Someone mentioned Omar Vizquel earlier in this thread. This guy was never considered a great offensive player, yet he still makes valuable offensive contributions for the Giants. I don't think by any means that Eck is gonna be a HOF but, the guy has exceeded every expectation since he's been a Cardinals. Who honestly thought he would start the All-Star game in 05?

I do have to agree with Larry that it would be stupid to vastly over pay for Eck, but say we sign him for 3/12, and worst case scenario we get two more years him putting up the numbers he did for a season and a half, then the last year he really can't cut it, and you have a backup shortstop making 4 mil that has big time game experience. Granted I personally don't think that will happen, I think David is too committed to the game, himself and the team to get a pay day and let his results drop off. The guy walked on at Florida for Christ's sake. You know right there that he is committed. I know people love to rant and rave about those predicted stats, and they are fun to look at, but some players go beyond what the predictions call for. The stats also give a margin of error in the form of percentiles, and I think sometimes it is necessary to admit some players will always fall to one side of that predictions. Players like JD Drew are on the wrong side and players like Eckstein are on the right.

Sign Him

get up baby, get up

by jimmybaseball42 on Jan 17, 2007 12:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I did just notice

Looking back over Eckstein's stats that he started off his career playing two full seasons, Then played 120 games, then came back with 2 more full seasons and then last year played 123 games. Maybe there is a trend with that.

get up baby, get up

by jimmybaseball42 on Jan 17, 2007 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs