Game 147 Open Thread: September 16, 2006

carpenter morris
14-6, 2.84 10-13, 4.71
programming info: i'm off to phoenix for the day; conference, buncha historians. the past, the past, the past, the past . . . . . . i'll have a moment at midday to check the comment load on this thread; if it looks necessary, i'll open a contingency overflow thread before the game starts.
i love today's pitching matchup, but i'm glad i'm missing the game; can't bear to root against morris. the crowd should give him a standing ovation -- he was great, even if he didn't quite get us there. here's a quick reminder of what he did for the franchise.
after the hr outburst last night, i decided to status-check the cardinals' homerun differential, on which i've been keeping an eye since this post in late june. at that time they'd been outhomered by 21 on the season; horrid. but they're whittled the deficit down to 9, which still isn't good but is a whole lot less bad. they're no longer the worst in this category among the playoff contenders:
| hr | opp hr |
diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| mets | 186 | 164 | +22 |
| giants | 149 | 133 | +16 |
| marlins | 165 | 151 | +14 |
| phillies | 196 | 188 | +8 |
| cardinals | 165 | 174 | -9 |
| padres | 145 | 155 | -10 |
| dodgers | 129 | 140 | -11 |
dodgers won last night, by the way, 3-1; the two ageless wonders put on quite a show, with maddux prevailing on the strength of 7 one-hit innings. . . . . so anyway, the hr differential. how have the cardinals closed the gap --- by hitting more homers or yielding fewer of them? survey says: both.
| hr | opp hr |
diff | |
|---|---|---|---|
| april | 29 | 28 | +1 |
| may | 26 | 26 | -- |
| june | 16 | 40 | -24 |
| july | 35 | 30 | +5 |
| august | 39 | 39 | -- |
| september | 20 | 13 | +7 |
the cardinals have a chance to achieve their highest monthly hr output in september, and their lowest hr allowance. i'm sure i am not the only one who didn't know the cards have been outhomered only 1 month out of 6 this year; it seems like they get outhomered every week. anyway, they're +12 in home runs since july 1; take whatever encouragement you want to from that.
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Comments
You got that right, LB
Plus he used to come to the plate to Phish's "Weekapaug Groove" and that always made my friends and me unbelievably happy.
Best of luck to ya, Matty Mo (after this game, of course).
Agreed
Matty Mo
I don't know the figures, but I have a strong feeling that our team hasn't done well after blow-out wins. Anybody have hard facts on how the birds on the bat have done after scoring 10+ runs in a win. It just seems like the offense has been so inconsistent this year.
Too bad no one within WB-11s
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2006 4:25 AM EDT reply actions
Sorry...
No one outside of WB11's range.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2006 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions
huh?
Unless you get WB11
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2006 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Darn it
and cincy airs the CWS game...
Is FOX airing this game regionally?
question for other subscribers: can we watch blacked out games after the game airs without an extra fee?
Yes
They're showing us the As-Sox game in San Francisco. Boo.
thanks
At least
by stlmapman on Sep 16, 2006 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
i hear that
biggest rivalry in sports
Matty Mo...
Watching Through Fingers...
Like LB, I cannot bear to root against him. I'll be out all day in Brooklyn, so...sometime tonight I'll check the scoreboard. Maybe he and Carp can go nine 0-0, and Albert can win it off some other guy in the 10th.
I'm sure the O when he comes out will be grand, tho'. That I'd like to see...
HR totals
GO Cards!!!
Chris Duncan
On another note, I miss Jimmy Ballgame. The diving catches, those shots over the left centerfield wall.
by Pokey Joe on Sep 16, 2006 10:20 AM EDT reply actions
Well we didn't take JRod last year
At best I think he's a platoon candidate.
vs. L/R
Duncan's OPS agaist righties is over 1.000.
I don't see much point in complaining about Duncan's struggles against lefties while he is mashing righties. So, don't start him against lefties. No big deal. He'll still get 120 or so starts, and he's dirt cheap.
by Speedy G on Sep 16, 2006 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
your both right
Not me...
Duncan's learning
I know he's still not hitting lefties, but I'd be all for letting him hit them as often as possible in the spring and see where he gets.
by levistahl on Sep 16, 2006 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, i'm getting sick
by jojo5492 on Sep 16, 2006 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Why was J-Rod
I still think he deserved more playing time at the beginning of the year, rather than sticking with So for so long. Even if he never starts, I hope we keep him around, not a great glove, but a good stick
Just my opinion, though.
J-Rod
2005 - .295/.382/.436
2006 - .299/.378/.437
He's a good hitter; takes good at bats, even against tough pitchers. He just doesn't have Duncan's power. Neither is a very good fielder, but J-Rod is probably a little better. J-Rod has had some trouble on the bases, though.
I agree that J-Rod should have gotten more playing time this season. I think part of the reason he hasn't is b/c he is basically Tony's designated late-inning pinch hitter.
by Speedy G on Sep 16, 2006 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Duncan
He has also been seeing a lot of pitches.
Cardinals leaders in pitches/PA:
Edmonds: 4.07
Duncan: 4.06
J-Rod: 4.04
Rolen: 3.93
Part of that, for all of the above, is the result of pretty high K rates, but it is also a result of good patience. That also bodes well for future success.
by Speedy G on Sep 16, 2006 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to get into a running argument
By the way, nicknames like ARod, JRod, etc. drive me nuts. Nicknames like El Hombre, Boomer, Rocket show a little more imagination. Completely off topic, I know. It's probably a personal thing anyway...
by Pokey Joe on Sep 16, 2006 10:41 AM EDT reply actions
C-Dunc?
I call
I am waiting for him to make a belly dive in the outfield swallow his chew than start puking every where.
by DimitroffVodka on Sep 16, 2006 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
wh not just
by punchinjudy on Sep 16, 2006 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Should we call
Darth
OKCardsfan
Im not sure why people fall over J-rod stats can be decieving..look at Gary Matthews this year anyone in here want to give him the huge contract he's earned for next yr..not me...Jrod is a guy who bounced around that we got of the heap sorry but we did..when he was hitting what were all the people on ESPN and Fox saying? That he basically was doe in clevland then cards picked him up gave him a chance...He was a great one year deal adn an occasional ok pinch hitter but not an ever day guy...
Matthews may be an everyday guy but look at how much hes bounced around as well. He can field pretty good though.
J Rod
by DimitroffVodka on Sep 16, 2006 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
he does
by punchinjudy on Sep 16, 2006 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
the problem with saying the JRod doesn't have as
Or maybe it's a fluke. What bothers me is that JRod had the same success last year w/ better plate discipline and he didn't get a look as a starter this year but rather had to share time in the OF w/ lesser players like Taguchi. This organization should have given him at least 100 ABs in LF or RF to see if they had an everyday player on their hands. Rodriguez has far more even spilts against LHP (although a very small sample size).
I hope the club gives Duncan 100ABs at the start of next year, day in day out no matter who is on the mound so that they see what they have. I want them to do this not because I think Duncan is an everyday player or because I think he's better than Rodriguez (I don't think he's either - imo he's a platoon half and Roriguez is an everday player) but because they need to start trying to fill some roster spots w/ cheap players.
JRod
Don't get me wrong - I like JRod, and I even got my hopes up a little bit during his sudden arrival in the bigs, but he's not a power hitter. I'd say he's definitely a good hitter, but we need power with JEd out of the lineup.
Power is going to be a difficult thing to find in the coming years - without the 'roids, it's not as easy to find a 30-40 homer guy as it was in the 90's. I'd like to see if Duncan is capable of doing this for a whole season, and I'd like to see him get a chance to prove he can hit lefties. It'll take some time to adapt, but he should get a chance.
Since you're not in the area
I hate to go all Joe Morgan anti-stats and projections, but Dunc's power is not a fluke by any means. That second HR last night was hit harder than any non-Pujols blast by a Card this year. He is ridiculously big, strong, and his batter's IQ has been doing nothing but going up as the season has gone on. I understand sitting him against tough lefties, but other than that, he should be in the starting lineup every day until he proves otherwise. Sometimes things don't start clicking until a player is 25 (Edmonds, Howard, a million other examples) and when you prove that you can do it on the MLB level instead of AA it's time to give him a full shot.
And not to discredit J-Rod, but he doesn't exactly have the pop one would want out of a starting OFer. He's a great batter to have of the bench, but I just can't imagine him being a starter anywhere. That being said, I hope he's on the playoff roster this year and with the club again next year.
ummm I live 25 minutes away from STL
Look don't get me wrong. Duncan is an exciting player and I think that he is progressing but I don't find what he is doing remarkably different from JRod. Last year my roommates and I would sit around and laugh as they fooled JRod on crappy breaking pitches. He'd swing everytime.
Then he started taking those pitches for balls and drawing walks. Duncan (before yesterday) was in a 6-38 slump so I wouldn't say that pitchers aren't figuring him out. If he can hit with a +800 OPS I'd be thrilled to have that from a league minimum corner OF. I just don't get why everyone thinks Duncan is the next coming of Dunn while JRod is Eckstein's little brother.
Duncan's numbers have been on a steady decline but are still otherworldly. He's playing beyond what any scout or projection system ever thought he would do. I get that he hits some absolute bombs. The kids a beast. But these HRs and SLG are completely off the charts. If he recedes at all vs. RHP you have to wonder how long he retains his value since he can't hit LHP for shit it seems.
Rodriguez may not have displayed a ton of power in STL but he hit 17 homers for Memphis and 27 total between AAA and the MLB in 2005.
Matty Mo
As for the homers, it helps having fewer starts from Mulder in the last 3 months. Plus, those 1 inning starts from Marquis hold down the homer damage as well.
Let's get a win today and I hope I can hear the applause for Matty Mo down here in Houston.
he should not be booed
by punchinjudy on Sep 16, 2006 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Anyone know if the Cards are wearing the
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2006 12:25 PM EDT reply actions
The running argument...
He'll never be the second coming of Van Slyke in the field but it looks like he'll hit for more power and perhaps post better OPS numbers. He's cheap, he's improving and at this point the Cardinals don't know what they have. And that's the point.
by Pokey Joe on Sep 16, 2006 12:53 PM EDT reply actions
To a degree
Lineup
Chris Duncan RF
Albert Pujols 1B
Scott Spiezio LF
Scott Rolen 3B
Juan Encarnacion CF
Ronnie Belliard 2B
Yadier Molina C
Chris Carpenter P
Lineups
CF Finley
SS Vizquel
1B Hillenbrand
LF Bonds
2B Durham
RF Alou
3B Feliz
C Alfonzo
P Moris
Cardinals
2B Miles
RF Duncan
1B Pujols
LF Speizo
3B Rolen
CF Encarnacion
2B Belliard
C Molina
P Carpenter
Is that stability in the lineup I see?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2006 3:28 PM EDT reply actions
MORRIS
Heads up
Carp's scuffling a bit...
Hopefully it trends differently.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2006 4:14 PM EDT reply actions
Did Morris get an O when his name was announced?
Is Mike Shannon dying?`
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2006 4:20 PM EDT reply actions
His wife has cancer
Yeah, it's really rough....
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2006 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
You realize how little of
Not Miles, Speizio, Enc or Belliard, and just a little for Duncan
I just looked at that
Again
He'll get a good one when he bats.
If he...
I mentioned big innings earlier. This seems to have become Matty Mo's MO. We'll see...
by glennrwordman on Sep 16, 2006 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Lidgebreaker
I think he still has Post-Albert Stress Disorder.
Where's that Matt Morris curveball turned Souvenir
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2006 4:29 PM EDT reply actions
There?
Big inning. Poor Matty, good for the Birds...
by glennrwordman on Sep 16, 2006 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Juan!
Cards lead 4-0
Matty Mo is at 35 pitches befor Belliard bats
Ya
by glennrwordman on Sep 16, 2006 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Good and sad news
by saladdin69 on Sep 16, 2006 4:33 PM EDT reply actions
Carp doesn't seem too sharp
by jojo5492 on Sep 16, 2006 4:37 PM EDT reply actions
Good inning, Chris
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 4:52 PM EDT reply actions
Belliard
yeah
by jojo5492 on Sep 16, 2006 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Carp
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 5:09 PM EDT reply actions
C'mon Baby Dunc!
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 5:14 PM EDT reply actions
Okay, Carp
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 5:21 PM EDT reply actions
Belliard
by jojo5492 on Sep 16, 2006 5:35 PM EDT reply actions
Ya know...
you know
Say what you want...
CARPENTER!!!!
Honestly, I'm as biased as heck, but I honestly don't see how you can give the Cy to anyone else. He turns in outstanding performance... after outstanding performance... after outstanding performance...
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 5:54 PM EDT reply actions
Gameday says Albert was out??
by Glenn Brummer stole home on Sep 16, 2006 6:01 PM EDT reply actions
Um.... Tony?
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 6:06 PM EDT reply actions
Um, yeah.
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 6:08 PM EDT reply actions
Never mind
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Carp
Adam's command looking a little sketchy
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 6:16 PM EDT reply actions
Course, as I type that, he gets a DP.
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Er... TJ vs. Barroids?
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I know that TJ's a LOOGY
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
How close was Pujols 7th inning double
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 16, 2006 6:21 PM EDT reply actions
Double all the way
Look....
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 6:28 PM EDT reply actions
This just in
Rich Hill had 10 Ks
he's been scary good lately
Looper
has anyone
having carp
by PGeorge @ Viva El Birdos on Sep 16, 2006 6:35 PM EDT reply actions
I know...
That said... kudos to Carp for yet another beautifully pitched game, which we can pretty much count on whenever he takes the mound. Oh yes, and Matty takes Chris out to dinner tonight. Chris chooses the restaurant, Matty pays.
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Sep 16, 2006 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
we count on Carp so much
Don't wear out that arm!
I was browsing through BP
I also noticed that Carpenter is destroying his PECOTA projection - heh...he's in the 80-90 percentile. 8-something WARP...this guy is sick. I wonder if his projection is still brought down by his injury and/or mediocre years in Toronto...
anyway Carpeter rocks.
just looking at the giants blog
by jojo5492 on Sep 16, 2006 8:53 PM EDT reply actions
i saw that too
I'm glad we didn't shell out 24 million or whatever it was for him...but I still like him.
I bet you can't guess who...
... has the most AB's this year.
... is tied for most triples with Aaron Miles.
Ok those you can look up with realitive ease, but still, the results suprised me.
by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Sep 16, 2006 10:51 PM EDT reply actions
Juantanamo?
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 16, 2006 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep
by viva el rojo pajaro 42 on Sep 16, 2006 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Great picture....
Not sure if that worked right to post it.
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 16, 2006 11:19 PM EDT reply actions
Nope
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 16, 2006 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions



















