a look at looper
the game ended on a base hit by the other team, but the cardinals triumphed anyway; maybe they're regaining their nose for winning. that's now two comeback wins in a row, and three in the last week they've won in their last at-bat. it's also the 2d time this year albert has been involved in a game-ending baserunner kill; he and molina, you might recall, co-authored a pickoff of brian giles to cement a 4-3 win over san diego back on may 27.
braden looper stole off with his 8th win last night. for a primary setup man --- especially one with 8 wins --- he has been remarkably invisible this year; we're all blinded, i guess, by the glare of izzy's blown saves and the bright light of wainwright's emergence. but the 8 wins represent the franchise's highest relief-win total in a decade --- mark petkovsek went 8-2 in relief in 1996, la russa's 1st season. one more victory, and looper will become the franchise's 1st 9-game winner out of the pen since mike perez in 1992; two more, and he'll become only the 2d cardinal reliever in the last 31 years to win 10 games, joining the other cris carpenter (10-4 in 1991). i don't think he'll be challenging the franchise record (at least, i'm pretty sure it's the record) for relief wins -- 13, set by lindy mcdaniel in 1959 and tied by al hrabosky in 1975.
looper's win last night was a cheapie, and given how uneven he's been this season --- 3.84 era, plus a shoddy inherited-runner strand rate of 53 percent --- one might assume that his entire 8-1 record is a fraud. but this was actually the first undeserved W on looper's ledger; he's earned the other 7 on merit, with an aggregate line of 9.2 innings, 3 hits, and 0 runs in those games. last night was only the 4th time all season he has yielded a hit that put the cardinals behind. that performance is reflected in looper's very good win-expectancy figures: fangraphs estimates that he has boosted the cardinals' win expectancy by 1.5 games, 3d-best among the pitchers (he trails only carpenter and wainwright). baseball prospectus, which has a shmancier way of calculating win expectancy, puts looper's value at +2.1 games --- 13th best among national league setup men. (wainwright ranks 4th on that list.) and hardball times rates looper tied for 10th (with wainwright) among nl setup men in win shares (pitching only).
sure doesn't seem like he's pitched that well, does it? his era is just 10 points better than it was last year, when an ailing shoulder ruined his stat line; opposing hitters are batting .275 against him, his worst figure since 1999, and slugging .380, only a slight improvement over 2005. more disappointing, looper hasn't squashed right-handed hitters with his accustomed force; he's limited them to .250 / .282 / .342, which is good but does not approach the near-unhittability he achieved in prior seasons. even last year, pitching hurt, he held righties to .210 / .285 / .266; his career line against them is .223 / .293 / .289. so looper has slipped vs right-handers and is as bad as ever against left-handers (.325 / .400 / .455 this year, slightly worse than his career avgs). his strikeout rate, though improved from his injury-impaired 2005 mark, is only 5.0 per 9, well below looper's career norms; his groundball percentage is his lowest since 2002, and his flyball rate is the highest of his whole career --- neither of which is a good sign for a sinkerball pitcher. looper has managed to keep the ball in the park (only 3 hr) so far this year, but a market correction may be in order in that regard; per his fangraphs page, only 5 percent of the flyballs hit off him have sailed out of the park, which is an extremely low percentage and way below looper's established level.
i doubt many stl fans will be brimming with confidence if looper should get called into a close playoff game. nor should they, necessarily; looper, like the team as a whole, has been quite the mixed bag in 2006. but the record shows that he has fairly reliably hauled the cardinals toward victories this year; hasn't always been pretty, but what is pretty about this team?
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72 comments
Comments
World's Funniest Loopers
I agree that he's yet another model of the inconsistency that's come to be the defining characteristic of this year's edition of the Bs on the B. When he comes into a game, I wince, and yet there have been games where he's been lights out. When he's right - when his fastball is hitting 95 and the movement is there and he's hitting his spots - that I can imagine him being successful in a closer role. Other nights, he looks like Mulder post-rehab and I wonder if I couldn't get a hit off him.
My hope for the remainder of this season is that the Cards benefit from the mediocrity (to be generous) of the division and hold on long enough to secure a playoff spot, then hit a collective upswing in their bipolar nature through the playoffs. The flaw in my design is that they have yet to show that they can sustain a "high" for as long as it would take to make through to The Series.
by punditmoi on Sep 1, 2006 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hanging With Mr. Looper
by dontEATnachos on Sep 1, 2006 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
by Cardinal70 on Sep 1, 2006 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What's pretty?
Anyway, I'll agree with the poster from the previous thread - the Cards seems to have discovered some hunger. Obviously I'm still worried about the pitching, Albert's elbow, etc. But come from behind victories make things feel a lot better.
I'd just like to see the bullpen nail things down. Sigh.
by sdrone on Sep 1, 2006 10:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You are right.
But I digress, That play was the 1st 3 base error I'd ever seen in person. I love Rolen's hustle. I'll be that guy in 2010 who is mad we didn't pick up his 7 million dollar option.
by Schnake on Sep 1, 2006 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of the 4-packs
When I go, I take a full week off sometime in the summer and I try to go Tues-Wed-Thurs. I can't afford, at 2.70ish a gallon, five different trips to STL.
(rant over)
by whopperman on Sep 1, 2006 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow..
by Nagle80 on Sep 1, 2006 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Try $3.25 a gallon here in SoCal
by allenbrent on Sep 1, 2006 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where at ?
by RB on Sep 1, 2006 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who else remembers
by lb3000 on Sep 1, 2006 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I bet
Something like "you need to get a better joob and make more money."
by Alxfritz on Sep 1, 2006 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You forgot
by whopperman on Sep 1, 2006 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretty results
you can't quantify many of the things that get a team a win, like almost everything pujols does or even something like la russa declaring he's shifting the focus and will only talk about the players who are playing so it gets everybody's mind off the "what ifs" and back into the game.
and really, of what value is pretty anyway? they're still our team and you gotta love 'em. wow--i've felt the need to say that "out loud" for a while now. ;)
good karma for the redbirds!
by thatsawinner on Sep 1, 2006 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
two come from behind wins
by gthedamned on Sep 1, 2006 10:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
sooper?
but his pitching face is scary and so is how straight his fastball is.
the facts are tho, with the money he and izzy make, we will live or die with how they both preform..because ya cant just not use 2 bullpen guys who make like 13million combined.
so whether or not i can trust looper, im gonna pretend he is sooper, and act surprised when he fails.
p.s. resign suppan! his veteran presence will help compliment carpenter and keep some semblance of continuity in the rotation as we bring up our young guys or bring in free agent pitchers for next year! plus, he is souper..
by 2ndprize on Sep 1, 2006 10:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Looper
That said, I'm glad that we got the job done yesterday.
Our offense is coming alive.
The Cards can only afford one loss the rest of the season if they want 100 wins for the third year in a row.
by cardsfan84 on Sep 1, 2006 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
this is off the subject
I was wondering if anyone else saw the guy with his mouth wide opne behind TO in the yellow shirt for like the whole interview...that was the best part..
by punchinjudy on Sep 1, 2006 11:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cards vs. lefties
vs. righties: .277/.346/.447/.793
vs. lefties: .270/.332/.404/.736
The biggest difference is slugging percentage due to a power outage vs. lefties - we only have 35 HR's against lefties (or one every 40.5 AB's) vs. 110 against righties (or one every 28.5 AB's). That translates to run production, obviously, as we have scored 175 runs vs. lefties (or one every 8.1 AB) and 474 vs. righties (or one every 6.6 AB).
This surprises me, given that the core of our lineup this year is all righties: Eckstein, Pujols, Rolen and Encarnacion. Until the emergence of Duncan, we haven't really had any real lefty punch other than a little bit of Edmonds. So what gives? Who are the culprits? Here are the splits for what should be the core run producers in our lineup (along with HR's and HR incidence):
Eckstein
vs. righties: .294/.331/.348/.679 1 HR/every 320 AB
vs. lefties: .280/.350/.325/.675 0 HR/never!
Pujols
vs. righties: .315/.419/.689/1.108 31 HR/every 9.8 AB
vs. lefties: .333/.429/.600/1.029 8 HR/every 15.0 AB
Rolen
vs. righties: .329/.399/.569/.968 14 HR/every 21.7 AB
vs. lefties: .266/.340/.484/.824 5 HR/every 25.6 AB
Edmonds
vs. righties: .300/.413/.550/.963 15 HR/every 16 AB
vs. lefties: .158/.200/.284/.484 3 HR/every 31.7 AB
Encarnacion
vs. righties: .275/.308/.444/.752 10 HR/every 31.3 AB
vs. lefties: .313/.333/.488/.821 7 HR/every 22.9 AB
The key takeaways I see:
- While Albert's splits are impressive, he hits lefties for a better average and righties for more power - not what I would have expected. In checking 2004/2005, that trend was true as well, although not as pronounced a difference. It would be nice to see him to ramp up his power against lefties to historical norms.
- Rolen's production against lefties is markedly weaker and not what I would have expected from him. Take a look at his splits for 2004/2005 (which combines his career year with the injury-shortened 2005):
vs. lefties: .318/.455/.574/1.029 8 HR/every 18.5 AB
Scotty needs to reach back and find that lefty stroke!
- Edmonds has lost it against lefties. His 2004/2005 numbers actually show better performance against lefties - with a higher HR rate against righties being the only exception. His decline against lefties shows the value of strong right-handed bat potential like Wilson and Belliard.
- Encarnacion obviously prefers lefties - his numbers are on par with Rolen's this year with a much higher average. He needs to keep hitting lefties at a nice clip.
GO CARDS!
by wildman on Sep 1, 2006 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pujols vs. lefties
by jomfa on Sep 1, 2006 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
excellent post
by gthedamned on Sep 1, 2006 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great post wildman
by lboros on Sep 1, 2006 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks, lboros
by wildman on Sep 1, 2006 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the post too but
by allenbrent on Sep 1, 2006 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wilson's splits
righties: .260/.296/.417/.713 10 HR/every 33.8 AB
lefties: .295/.352/.411/.763 2 HR/every 47.5 AB
Better average against righties but similar power against both. Not as significant a split as I remembered. Here's Belliard for this year:
righties: .310/.360/.434/.795 7 HR/every 42.4 AB
lefties: .235/.286/.336/.621 2 HR/every 74.5
Oh my goodness - another odd split. This lefty thing is real.....
by wildman on Sep 1, 2006 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I stand by my original assessment...
by ArachNerd on Sep 1, 2006 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Q: How many runs did Izzy allow last night?
He did his job. We have reason to complain about him, given his last two weeks, but last night isn't one of our reasons to complain.
by Valatan on Sep 1, 2006 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
of course not...
I wasn't complaining about him - but be honest with yourself - the infield saved his ass!
by ArachNerd on Sep 1, 2006 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you know...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 1, 2006 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how do you know
All we do know is that his performance was good for the first two outs and then went downhill.
Sure, we ended up making it out of the inning fine but we were hoping we could get out of the inning without the tying run batting.
Was it a horrible outing: no.
Was it a good outing: not really.
It would just be much more reassuring to have him go out there and be really sharp and get guys out himself instead of giving up 3 consecutive hits to end the game.
by dontEATnachos on Sep 1, 2006 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reyes
by punchinjudy on Sep 1, 2006 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
As I've Seen it Explained
I forget where the article is but basically it was saying something like, "fans make a lot bigger deal out of the rosters than the coaches/umpires do ... so if they really want to do something they could probably do it".
by dontEATnachos on Sep 1, 2006 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As long as you are on
The only thing the Aug 31 deadline really sets in to stone is how many pitchers and how many position players you are allowed to have on said roster (ie. now the cards must use a 11/14 roster.) The particular players on the 25 man roster can be juggeled around before every series, if I remember correctly.
by Alxfritz on Sep 1, 2006 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
does
Strikes me as a silly rule that takes a bit (OK, a tiny, almost inconsequential, bit) away from the purity of the game. In no other context that I can think of does baseball forces teams to categorize their players. And I for one hope that if Marquis is on the post-season roster, he gets more work as a pinch-hitter than as a pitcher.
by DCGreg on Sep 1, 2006 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it has
You could get around all of it by claiming one of your pitchers (lets say a Marquis) as an outfielder or one of your position players as a pitcher. Nobody really cares anyway. I'm pretty sure K-Rod wasn't even on the Angels 40-man on Aug 31 of 2002 and he still played (and dominated) that postseason.
Basically, the Aug 31 deadline is a rather arbitrary rule that nobody follows really anyway.
by Alxfritz on Sep 1, 2006 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It Doesn't Matter
by Robb on Sep 1, 2006 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well the official site
by punchinjudy on Sep 1, 2006 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Looper....
by Timbo02 on Sep 1, 2006 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I smell a Cardinals sweep...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 1, 2006 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hooray beer!
by Alxfritz on Sep 1, 2006 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hooray, bear!
by Alxfritz on Sep 1, 2006 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 1, 2006 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so do i...
by cardsfan84 on Sep 1, 2006 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same here
by BigdJC on Sep 1, 2006 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm afraid
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 1, 2006 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you can't take his keys
by allenbrent on Sep 1, 2006 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BOO!!!
by allenbrent on Sep 1, 2006 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
roster schmoster
or with this guy, one my favorite softball players: Kieschnick??
by _pistol_ on Sep 1, 2006 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
All I can say is go Mets
by allenbrent on Sep 1, 2006 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Recalls so far per Benie:
Brad Thompson
Anthony Reyes
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 1, 2006 4:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Benie=Bernie
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 1, 2006 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so everyone can be happy
by punchinjudy on Sep 1, 2006 5:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What does Narveson have to do...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Sep 1, 2006 6:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Um
by punditmoi on Sep 1, 2006 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It also would help
by iron duke75 on Sep 1, 2006 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It may also help
by Glenn Brummer stole home on Sep 1, 2006 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since we were talking about Looper......
by jillsinmo on Sep 1, 2006 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hmm I would take
wait i was poisoned by this year...i thought you meant old guys to pay too much for next year..sorry i had to
by punchinjudy on Sep 1, 2006 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dumbrano
by iron duke75 on Sep 1, 2006 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we arrange for somone
by Intheway on Sep 1, 2006 8:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Molina's hitting
by jillsinmo on Sep 2, 2006 8:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh......
by jillsinmo on Sep 2, 2006 8:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
molina
by thats a winner on Sep 2, 2006 10:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs




















