on the routs
buster olney thinks the padres are gonna get david wells for catcher george kottaras, one of their best prospects --- in fact, the best padre prospect, according to baseball prospectus:
padres now lead the wild-card race, by the way. the reds have fallen to 3d place in that competition and are right at .500.
before we leave the subject of minor-league catchers: gateway redbirds has a Q+A with top card catching prospect bryan anderson, who's wrapping up an excellent year at quad cities.
last night's win was the cards' 24th in which they outscored the opposition by 5 runs or more --- their 24th "blowout" win. at this rate (~5 blowouts a month) they'll end up with 29 or so, nearly as many as they had last year (31) and the year before (32). the big difference this year is (surprise) the cardinals have lost a lot more blowouts than they're accustomed to doing. in 2005 they were a league-best 31-13 in blowouts, virtually identical to their 32-13 mark in 2004; this season they're just 24-21. bill james showed long ago that there's a strong correlation between overall winning percentage and winning percentage in blowouts; that particular pattern is holding in 2006. here are the records of all the nl playoff contenders in blowouts, in order of their blowout winning percentage:
| w-l | w pct | overall w pct |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. nym | 29-11 | .725 | .626 |
| 2. la | 24-18 | .571 | .534 |
| 3. sd | 18-15 | .545 | .511 |
| 4. stl | 24-21 | .533 | .534 |
| 5. hou | 20-19 | .513 | .489 |
| 6. sf | 18-18 | .500 | .489 |
| 7. fla | 20-20 | .500 | .492 |
| 8. cin | 18-22 | .450 | .500 |
| 9. pha | 16-20 | .444 | .508 |
the cards are tied for 2d in the league in blowout wins but (bad sign) 1st in blowout losses among the teams most likely to actually make the playoffs -- ie, mets cards dodgers phils and padres. (baseball prospectus' playoff odds report this morning assigns both the phils n pads at 20 pct chance of winning the wild card; the reds are at just 12 pct and fading.) i'm shocked to find the phillies at the bottom of this list; in their ballpark, with their lineup, how can they only have 16 blowout victories? must be winning a lotta 8-6 games.
as long as we're on this cheerful subject: which cardinal pitchers are most heavily implicated in the team's blowout defeats? we can all probably guess, but let's count 'em up anyway:
| blowout losses |
starts | pct | |
|---|---|---|---|
| marquis | 7 | 28 | .250 |
| suppan | 5 | 25 | .200 |
| mulder | 4 | 17 | .235 |
| reyes | 2 | 12 | .167 |
| weaver | 2 | 9 | .222 |
| carp | 1 | 26 | .038 |
you'll note that, aside from carpenter, the pitcher least likely to start a blowout loss --- ie, least likely to lose a game singlehandedly --- is the rookie. miklasz has a fine column on that subject this morning, counting seams along with the rest of us:
This makes sense. I don't criticize Duncan for trying to make Reyes a more complete pitcher. In the long run, it will make Reyes better. But after the changes were made, Reyes wasn't as effective. He lost velocity in his fastball. Back at Memphis, Reyes said he concentrated on regaining confidence in his fastball. Indeed, Reyes hit 94 mph on the gun again.
When Reyes comes up, let's hope La Russa and Duncan let his natural talent flow. Let Reyes pitch in a way that maximizes his confidence. Let him go after hitters the way he attacked the Chicago White Sox in June. And if Reyes fails doing it his way, then go with Duncan's way.
La Russa said recently that the best assets to have for the postseason are two power arms. The Cardinals have one in Carpenter. And if given a chance by the manager, Reyes could be No. 2.
finally: the king of blowout losses, jason marquis, set a new franchise record last night for victories by a pitcher with a 5.00+ era; congratulations. he also crept to within 7 points of bill sherdel's franchise record for highest era by a qualifier (set in 1929). and, most impressively, he has returned to the top of the nat'l league leaderboard in wins, joining penny, zambrano, webb, and trachsel in a five-way tie. and so jason sustains his peculiar disjunction: 1st in the league in wins, dead last in era. if he can keep it up for one more month, he'll be the first man in history to accomplish the deed. i'm rooting for him like crazy.
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comments
Comments
Here's to the Padre's
by fuegophil on Aug 31, 2006 8:57 AM EDT 0 recs
without looking at the stats
by lboros on Aug 31, 2006 9:02 AM EDT 0 recs
but
Far better for either an NL West or NL Central team win the wild card, letting the Birds take on the NL West winner in the first round.
by DCGreg on
Aug 31, 2006 9:31 AM EDT
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i'd rather face the mets
by lboros on
Aug 31, 2006 9:38 AM EDT
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interesting
Not that it looks especially good for the Cards either way.
by DCGreg on
Aug 31, 2006 9:50 AM EDT
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but if the cards play the dodgers
by lboros on
Aug 31, 2006 10:07 AM EDT
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You think
by DCGreg on
Aug 31, 2006 10:40 AM EDT
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i would too
by lboros on
Aug 31, 2006 11:18 AM EDT
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Wells trade
by Elvis on Aug 31, 2006 9:35 AM EDT 0 recs
as I understand it
that being said, it's pretty clear that deal isn't (and shouldn't be) happening.
by DCGreg on
Aug 31, 2006 9:52 AM EDT
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post-trade deadline waivers
by Speedy G on
Aug 31, 2006 12:17 PM EDT
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That would make me jump with glee
by Valatan on
Aug 31, 2006 11:45 AM EDT
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Of course, above
Wainwright is too much to give up for David.
by Valatan on
Aug 31, 2006 12:14 PM EDT
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[new] MVP stats
Sorry not to get this into the "Sizing up the MVP Candidates" post and thread the other day.
I'd be curious to see those stats/comparisons for the end of year numbers for 2005. I wonder how Pujols' OPS, VORP, WPA numbers look compared to Lee's. In the end, it seemed Andruw Jones was his main competitor among the voters (I say seemed because I don't recall the vote count), but Lee's case by the numbers was stronger than Jones', wasn't it?
by Youneverknow on Aug 31, 2006 9:38 AM EDT 0 recs
you're correct
by lboros on
Aug 31, 2006 10:04 AM EDT
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I have to wonder
Someone they think is this amazing cornerstone player but just never quite lives up to reputation. W/ his injury and no real statistical support for last year ... well it is the Cubs after all.
by azruavatar on
Aug 31, 2006 10:29 AM EDT
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I think everyone but the Cubs
As I told a friend of mine "Uh, you're giving him Pujols money?"
by sdrone on
Aug 31, 2006 10:43 AM EDT
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But
If anything, their horrible spiral out of respectability after his injury proves what an important part he is to the team ... and how good he is.
Since the injury though, the question has simnply become whether or not he can fully recover from it. And that I think is what's going to affect his play going forward.
Hopefully in the offseason he'll be able to work through some of the issues that he's been battling since coming back.
by dontEATnachos on
Aug 31, 2006 11:04 AM EDT
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Well
I like him; he's a good player and plays hard. I just don't want him to be a part of some program involving the Cubs actually getting better.
by sdrone on
Aug 31, 2006 11:07 AM EDT
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Ok
Not that it's a bad post or anything, I just find my dependence on teh '[ n' kind of humorous.
Also, notice how I added spaces in my reference so that I wouldn't cause the same problem. Anyone else who does the same thing can thank me later.
by dontEATnachos on
Aug 31, 2006 3:33 PM EDT
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LOL
by iron duke75 on
Aug 31, 2006 6:02 PM EDT
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Marquis
I'm also rooting like crazy for him to have an unfortunate, season-ending injury. Maybe he can borrow Mr. Matheny's hunting knife.
okay maybe that's abit harsh, but watching him pitch is excruciating.
by _pistol_ on Aug 31, 2006 10:26 AM EDT 0 recs
That
But, those things will happen while we're under "The Curse of Keith Hernandez."
by Alxfritz on
Aug 31, 2006 10:28 AM EDT
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hey
by beanocook on
Aug 31, 2006 11:05 AM EDT
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he is also
by SleepyCA on
Aug 31, 2006 11:13 AM EDT
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how
If he happens to be pitching the night we win games, then good. I dont see how leading the league in wins can be a bad thing.
by beanocook on
Aug 31, 2006 11:18 AM EDT
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hmmm
by sjoshi on Aug 31, 2006 10:30 AM EDT 0 recs
Is Mulder's
by sdesserman on Aug 31, 2006 10:36 AM EDT 0 recs
Yes....
by Hardcore Legend on
Aug 31, 2006 11:24 AM EDT
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Reyes
It doesnt make sense to me. Where I differ with most here is the whole changing him thing. But, anyway, we probably all agree the kid should be in this rotation right now.
I would be interested to see why Tony would think otherwise.
by beanocook on Aug 31, 2006 11:08 AM EDT 0 recs
Floor Man!!
LB: "Has Dave Duncan asked you to change anything with your pitching style, and if so, how has that affected your game?"
AR" "..."
This is either an urban myth perpetuated by thousands of fans like myself repeating it over and over, or this is a real issue the Cards don't like talking much about.
I want to know which!
by EckEqualsClutch on
Aug 31, 2006 11:43 AM EDT
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there's no need for a stealth interview
by lboros on
Aug 31, 2006 3:19 PM EDT
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lboros
Thats been my point all along. Dunc/Tony never asked Anthony to completely change everything he does. Drop everything, start from scratch. What they HAVE done is ask him to learn and implement a new pitch. Pitch down in the zone more than he currently does.
They myth comes from people thinking they are trying to reinvent him. Thats not true. They are trying to IMPROVE him by adding another dimension. Never once have they said to scrap what you know and start again.
Again, Duncan has coached many, many, many pitchers over the years. Given advice. Given them tools to be better pitchers and given them more options to get major league hitters out. That is what he is doing with Reyes. This idea that they are completely overhauling him just isnt correct.
Thats my beef with the situation. As usual, its ok for Duncan to work/teach Carpenter but Reyes is above that?
by beanocook on
Aug 31, 2006 3:57 PM EDT
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let me also
But I think the MUCH bigger role is the fact that he is a young pitcher in the major leagues and there are struggles that go with that. I dont see why some cant acknowledge that he isnt much different than many, many, many pitchers that came before him.
by beanocook on
Aug 31, 2006 4:00 PM EDT
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the music thing in the other thread
by punchinjudy on Aug 31, 2006 11:17 AM EDT 0 recs
Man I've got to start
by sdrone on
Aug 31, 2006 11:34 AM EDT
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What song was that?
by lawman3842 on
Aug 31, 2006 1:14 PM EDT
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check the post game thread last night
by punchinjudy on
Aug 31, 2006 1:22 PM EDT
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That is funny
by lawman3842 on
Aug 31, 2006 1:28 PM EDT
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That's a great song
by 26thMan on
Aug 31, 2006 2:24 PM EDT
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I missed last night's threads
I know linking to the post is a shameless act of self-promotion, but what are you gonna do?
With that out of the way, I'd like to see a player come in with "Bring the Noise" by Public Enemy and Anthrax. Or for a closer, the P.A. guy could cue up "Eye of the Beholder" by Metallica when the manager makes the signal to the bullpen. The way the song fades up at the beginning is ominously awesome.
by 26thMan on
Aug 31, 2006 2:45 PM EDT
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Sorry, for a second
Which would be totally sweet for the person awesome enough to make such an attempt.
by Valatan on
Aug 31, 2006 3:28 PM EDT
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Do you mean
Uh, Osborne, not Smith.
by 26thMan on
Aug 31, 2006 3:43 PM EDT
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Yes, I am
Thanks
by Valatan on
Aug 31, 2006 5:39 PM EDT
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Can anyone guess whos line this is????
by RB on Aug 31, 2006 11:35 AM EDT 0 recs
Well
Although I'd actually prefer to have Grady Sizemore ...
by dontEATnachos on
Aug 31, 2006 11:40 AM EDT
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haha
Although Pujols does steal more than you'd think he would (or used to at least)
by dontEATnachos on
Aug 31, 2006 11:48 AM EDT
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wait
by dontEATnachos on
Aug 31, 2006 11:50 AM EDT
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And I think his OPS is over 1.000 this year
by Valatan on
Aug 31, 2006 12:08 PM EDT
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Considering
by Alxfritz on
Aug 31, 2006 11:51 AM EDT
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Ding Ding Ding...
by RB on
Aug 31, 2006 1:28 PM EDT
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It's..
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Aug 31, 2006 1:24 PM EDT
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That is no one's line in the majors this year
by Toddius396 on Aug 31, 2006 11:53 AM EDT 0 recs
stolen base leaders
1. J Reyes
NYM SS 125 541 109 161 25 16 16 68 266 43 67 54 12 .350 .492 .298
2. C Figgins
LAA OF 129 515 81 134 18 5 6 47 180 55 85 47 12 .330 .350 .260
3. C Crawford
TB OF 125 497 74 155 17 13 16 67 246 32 69 45 9 .357 .495 .312
3. J Pierre
CHC OF 133 568 67 161 28 12 2 31 219 30 33 45 17 .328 .386 .283
5. H Ramirez
FLA SS 128 505 101 142 32 9 12 43 228 46 106 42 9 .345 .451 .281
6. C Patterson
BAL OF 121 417 66 115 17 2 13 47 175 20 83 40 7 .314 .420 .276
6. D Roberts
SD OF 103 394 66 123 16 11 2 36 167 44 43 40 4 .382 .424 .312
8. S Podsednik
CWS OF 121 451 80 118 25 6 3 43 164 49 87 36 14 .334 .364 .262
8. I Suzuki
SEA OF 133 563 84 180 15 6 7 38 228 44 57 36 2 .372 .405 .320
10. A Soriano
WSH OF 131 533 101 157 35 2 43 84 325 54 124 34 13 .365 .610 .295
11. F Lopez
WSH SS 126 499 85 136 21 2 11 41 194 69 106 33 11 .360 .389 .273
11. B Roberts
BAL 2B 109 442 70 128 30 2 7 48 183 51 52 33 5 .359 .414 .290
13. R Furcal
LAD SS 131 543 92 155 26 7 9 49 222 62 89 32 10 .358 .409 .285
14. R Freel
CIN OF 117 401 60 112 28 2 7 24 165 49 82 31 10 .370 .411 .279
15. J Rollins
PHI SS 128 551 107 153 37 5 19 60 257 48 62 30 4 .339 .466 .278
16. W Taveras
HOU OF 127 450 70 126 16 4 1 29 153 28 70 28 8 .333 .340 .280
17. D Jeter
NYY SS 126 510 93 173 31 3 12 83 246 58 83 27 3 .415 .482 .339
18. K Lofton
LAD OF 103 377 60 115 12 9 2 30 151 36 33 24 4 .364 .401 .305
18. O Vizquel
SF SS 127 485 78 151 18 8 4 47 197 50 45 24 6 .378 .406 .311
20. J Damon
NYY OF 124 498 99 148 32 5 22 73 256 58 67 23 8 .369 .514 .297
21. O Cabrera
LAA SS 129 508 84 146 39 1 8 63 211 46 46 22 3 .345 .415 .287
21. B Phillips
CIN 2B 124 449 61 135 25 1 15 66 207 30 66 22 2 .347 .461 .301
23. B Abreu
PHI OF 98 339 61 94 25 2 8 65 147 91 86 20 4 .427 .434 .277
23. M Cameron
SD OF 112 456 72 121 28 7 19 61 220 54 124 20 8 .347 .482 .265
23. L Castillo
MIN 2B 119 493 77 145 19 5 3 45 183 41 47 20 7 .348 .371 .294
26. J Barfield
SD 2B 125 452 61 127 25 3 10 47 188 28 67 19 4 .322 .416 .281
26. R Weeks
MIL 2B 95 359 73 100 15 3 8 34 145 30 92 19 5 .363 .404 .279
28. E Byrnes
ARI OF 114 443 67 123 33 3 20 60 222 31 69 18 1 .331 .501 .278
28. C Crisp
BOS OF 89 361 52 94 18 2 7 28 137 29 58 18 4 .317 .380 .260
28. J Gathright
KC OF 110 305 48 68 9 3 0 28 83 38 59 18 8 .318 .272 .223
28. J Lugo
TB SS 73 289 53 89 17 1 12 27 144 27 47 18 4 .373 .498 .308
28. G Sizemore
CLE OF 132 537 107 157 46 9 20 60 281 62 117 18 3 .375 .523 .292
33. C Guillen
DET SS 129 460 81 143 34 4 16 72 233 58 71 17 7 .390 .507 .311
34. C Beltran
NYM OF 119 443 109 127 35 1 39 111 281 74 85 16 3 .389 .634 .287
34. D Wright
NYM 3B 128 488 84 146 32 4 23 101 255 57 103 16 4 .373 .523 .299
36. V Guerrero
LAA OF 132 511 80 168 29 1 27 105 280 44 62 15 5 .384 .548 .329
37. C Duffy
PIT OF 57 207 29 44 9 2 0 12 57 10 43 14 0 .271 .275 .213
37. A Kennedy
LAA 2B 115 378 40 99 21 6 2 44 138 29 62 14 9 .318 .365 .262
37. N Punto
MIN 3B 104 332 60 102 20 5 1 36 135 44 50 14 5 .385 .407 .307
37. E Renteria
ATL SS 121 492 87 147 32 1 11 54 214 53 76 14 6 .370 .435 .299
37. V Wells
TOR OF 125 501 75 160 32 4 30 90 290 43 75 14 3 .373 .579 .319
42. A Amezaga
FLA OF 102 242 33 66 8 3 2 12 86 26 37 13 10 .344 .355 .273
42. R Clayton
CIN SS 122 419 47 110 26 1 2 36 144 26 78 13 5 .308 .344 .263
44. C Lee
MIL OF 102 388 60 111 18 0 28 81 213 38 39 12 2 .347 .549 .286
44. C Utley
PHI 2B 130 528 107 165 36 3 22 80 273 47 98 12 4 .380 .517 .313
46. Y Betancourt
SEA SS 131 452 57 135 20 6 7 41 188 15 40 11 8 .321 .416 .299
46. M Cabrera
NYY OF 99 365 63 104 19 2 7 41 148 43 42 11 5 .362 .405 .285
46. M Cairo
NYY 2B 67 197 25 46 8 3 0 25 60 10 29 11 1 .271 .305 .234
46. C Counsell
ARI SS 81 319 48 86 13 3 3 29 114 21 43 11 6 .330 .357 .270
46. M Izturis
LAA 3B 78 258 52 78 17 1 5 32 112 22 29 11 4 .362 .434 .302
by Toddius396 on
Aug 31, 2006 11:56 AM EDT
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that statline....
by cards4life on Aug 31, 2006 12:02 PM EDT 0 recs
Sorry..
by RB on
Aug 31, 2006 1:30 PM EDT
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Larry, interesting article in WSJ
Between not letting it go (and irking your family) to losing the not-quite-faithful from the site, it's an intersting take on your recent dilemma.
by Solanus on Aug 31, 2006 12:43 PM EDT 0 recs
thanks solanus
by lboros on
Aug 31, 2006 3:21 PM EDT
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It's Terry Evans line in AA
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Aug 31, 2006 1:23 PM EDT 0 recs

