the road to wellsville

The purpose of a "pitch to contact" approach is to minimize the number of pitches thrown per batter and to minimize the damage caused by balls put into play. This is done by getting ahead of the hitters and to change speed & location (preferably low in the zone) in an attempt to get groundballs and other weakly struck outs. And the reason for doing this is to allow the hurlers to work longer into games, both from effectiveness and efficiency.

The problem that I see with our starters (outside of Carpenter) is that they don't throw enough strikes, especially early in the count, and that they are too predictable with their location in the zone. If I want a batter to swing at pitches out of the zone, he needs to be behind in the count to cause him to expand his zone. If I want a struck ball to be hit meekly to a fielder, I need to vary speed and location WITHIN the zone so he can't put a clean swing at the pitch. If I want to fool the batter into taking a less than perfect hack at my less than perfect pitches, I can't limit myself to one or two types of pitches in the bottom half of the zone.

Get ahead, keep them off balance, keep them guessing. Not fall behind and give in, go to the same pitch over and over, and stick to the same gameplan all the time.

Beano, if you have any thoughts that can add to or correct my earlier statements, I seriously welcome your input.

As for young Master Reyes, it is most certainly possible for a majority of his struggles to be attributed to his lack of experience and normal growing pains in his first real taste of the Majors. He has enjoyed success at nearly every level of his development, so he may be unaccustomed to failure and may be unable at this time to work his way out of it. It is also possible that his early, high-profile success caused his own failures, as opposing teams would have looked to video of the White Sox game for tips on how he tries to get batters out.

But to think that switching a significant portion of his pitch usage to an option he is unfamiliar and unsuccessful with would not have a profound effect is ridiculous. The amount of two-seamers that he is asked to throw (through game-planning and pitch selection offered by his catchers) is something that I would expect out of a spring training or rehabilitation start.

If a particular pitch isn't working during an outing, you try it a few more times to see if you can get it back or you scrap it for the rest of the night. For Duncan to have one of his pitchers throw something that is obviously not working, irregardless of the results, is foolish. One, it potentially ruins the pitcher's confidence because he can't go back to something that works. Two, you've basically broadcast to the hitters, "Guess what? I'm gonna throw this worthless sinker again. Have a rip!" (Would you want Izzy to continually throw his cutter because "it can be a great pitch", all the while he's being lit up like a Christmas tree? Oh shit, that already happened. OK, bad analogy ...)

I think Duncan is a hell of a pitching coach, worthy of all of the praise that is heaped on him. He has fixed many pitchers, the suspect veterans and the untamed. He has made the unwashed masses mediocre and the league-average league-leaders. I also think that Anthony has plenty to learn from Duncan and the other pitchers on the staff.

But to shove a process down the throat of the young hurler just because it's worked before with some other guys is just a bad idea. Let Reyes implement the two-seamer 5-10 times a game. Work with him during spring training to make sure he gets it; let him take his lumps down there.

Most importantly, let him overcome one hurdle at a time. Let him fail with his best stuff and learn from it; then you can come in with the perfect solution.

Or here's another idea.  If a pitcher has a pedigree of winning games and being effective w/o a 2-seam fastball or throwing low in the zone or pitching to contact, LET THEM.

Call it what you will but DD and TLR have tried to impose changes on a 24 year old player who has a track record of success.  That is foolish.  Why are we fixing things that aren't broken?  Just because DD/TLR think it might be a problem in the future?  It's a bad organization philosophy to want 5 pitching clones in your rotation that all lob the same slop over the bottom corners of the plate.

I think my 5 year old brother could have hit that 69mph "changeup" Mulder threw last night...sad to see someone who was so good fall so fast (esp. while playing for the Cardinals - not so sad when its Wood/Prior)

It's almost worse:  he knows something is wrong and keeps going out there.  

And a complete no trade clause.

FWIW pecota says he maxed out at $13M this year and will fall from $11M next year to $6M in 2010.  And that is assuming he never gets hurt!

Of course pecota is awful for predicting performance but still, it is a brave move for the astros- they are setting themselves up for bagwell pt 2.  Now if we can talk them into signing clemens again next year...

Mulder had gotten to 2 outs in the 2nd without giving up any runs in the 2nd and in fact had a chance of getting out of that inning had he gloved the ball hit right back to him.

While, you...me and Dupree over there know that Mulder had none stuff out there on the mound, as far as situationally, Mulder did improve to an extent.

The worst part of the whole evening was watching him get back up on the bump and get the signs after every pitch.  He was breathing heavy, trying to take deep breaths and saying to himself under his breath "Okay....Okay" like he was trying to remember how to pitch.

Yikes.