Why am I making a case for Bruce Chen...?

by ilillillli on Aug 25, 2006 3:44 PM EDT

OK, OK. Long time reader, first time poster... you know the story. I've posted on the cardinal's main message board, but at times it gets a little low-brow... so for some reason i'm starting here with a bruce chen support thread...why?

OK, OK, this season is almost certainly a wash... so lets get this started...

*of the 5-man cardinals pitching rotation, only chris carpenter is signed for next year. even if wainwright and reyes join the rotation, that still leaves two spots. and its no gaurantee that wainwright makes the rotation next year...who knows what they have planned.

*the cardinals have the need/desire for one more ace/ impact pitcher... and they be better served with a 1-2 punch than with carpenter and 4 league-average-to-worse guys like this year.

*saving money for an ace means cheaping-out on the 5th starter... so no tomo ohka, gil meche intermediantes... the 5th starter needs to be a straight-up dave duncan rehab job.

*enter bruce chen. he's having a miserable year. his worst ever. mulder-esque... but there are many reasons why he may not be as bad as ERA/ wins/ losses indicate...

_____

*His strikeout rate (K/9) is a healthy 6.48 this year, higher than last years, and is about league average. so that's not a problem.

*His walk rate is almost exactly what it's been the last 2 years, and is much lower than it was before that. It's at a healthy, league-average 3.00/9. so that's not the problem.

*He is giving up more home runs... so maybe that's the problem... i still don't really think so. He's giving up more fly balls at a higher rate, and groundballs at a lower rate than in previous years... a little time with the dave duncan sinker-school and this should straighten out. his line-drive percentage is down from last year... so its not like he's getting crushed any more.

*THE BIGGEST PROBLEM with bruce chen this year seems to be phenominally bad luck. The batting average on balls in play against him is .339 this year. compare that to .267, .238, and .291 in the proceeding years. league average is .300. Chris Carpenter has had a BABIP of .279, .284, and .286 over the past years. THESE THINGS ALMOST ALWAYS EVEN OUT. BABIP( a VEB favorite) is generally a luck statistic... or a result of a bad defense (read: baltimore). More balls are getting through the infield/ getting down in the outfield this year... i don't think this is all bruce's fault.

*MORE BAD LUCK... Chen's Left-On-Base percentage this year is 68.8%... down from 77.5% and 79.6% in previous years. so unless you believe that chen's "cracking under pressure" at a rate tremendously higher than previous years... this number should come down. his career number is 74.2%... that would even be a marked improvement.

SO...

without any stats-too-fancy... it seems like the time to buy on bruce chen is now.

*he's a free agent this offseason

*he's 29...still room for upside

*he's demonstrated his ability to produce before (3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 2004)

*he's coming of an atrocious season... should be happy to grasp on to a contender... and would be willing to accept fewer years/ lower dollars per than he would ordinarily.

*also he's a lefty...which for some reason la russa pretends to put a premium on... so whatever.

*He's young... he'll be cheap... he can be effective...

Or sign Jeff Suppan. I don't care, really.

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But Scott Boras...

That's the worst part about this whole thing.. scott, boras. He'll probably find a way to get 4 years and $30+ million out of some chump GM for chen.

I don't want anyone to think I LOVE bruce chen, but I'm trying to think of a better dumpster-diving rehab project and can't think of anyone that's more talented that's having a nastier year...

randy wolf...?

or just sign jeff suppan.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Aug 25, 2006 3:56 PM EDT reply actions

Hmm

Randy Wolf, there's a thought. I used to love that guy.

by aet15 on Aug 25, 2006 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Narveson...

I realize it would be good to get Narvie a full year at Memphis and he is coming back from major surgery. His HR rate is pretty high, but he has been almost dominant (about a 2.65 ERA) at AAA in his short time there this year (about 70 IP if I recall correctly). I think he is a good solution for the 5th starter next year. Or maybe leave Wainwright in the pen and let Narvie start. Wainwright isn't tested for the rotation and wasn't great at Memphis in the rotation last year. I'd say leave him in the pen (if it ain't broke, don't fix it), and see what Narvie can do.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Aug 25, 2006 5:00 PM EDT reply actions

I like the idea...

I like the idea of Narveson, and he might just be ready to get a taste of the bigs, but...

his HR rate really isn't rediculous this year... only 9 in 85 innings pitched. That's not terrible.

his strikeout rate isn't overwhelming (a healthy 6.7ish/9). That's alright.

he's been getting more air outs than groundouts recently, though, and you know the organizations mantra...

he might be worth a shot in spring training, but to me Narvie has a little bit more to prove before we give him a spot.

I don't mean to sound too much like LaRussa, but having an established veteran as an option is definately comforting going into spring training.

I'll just say... Narveson MIGHT have what it takes, but he hasn't convinced me either way yet. So someone that's been around might not be a bad idea, as a backup if nothing else.

o8o88o888o

by ilillillli on Aug 25, 2006 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd like to see what he could do from the bullpen

first. Easing him into the MLB would make me feel better than throwing him into the fire. It's nice to have him for some SP depth too.

Acquire Jason Schmidt!

by azruavatar on Aug 26, 2006 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions

you listen here, scott boras in disguise,

you find someplace else to peddle your wares. walt needs to spend his money wisely, like 5 years 55 million for jason marquis.

seriously, though, you make a good case for, ahem, bruce chen.

I gots me a blog too

by sjoshi on Aug 26, 2006 2:27 AM EDT reply actions

at that price

looks like a good pickup. wouldn't want more than 1 guy like this on the shopping list, but if you could get him for $3m a year, reyes/wainer at a combined $700K, and carp at about $7m, that'd leave, oh, $10m a year to throw into the team elsewhere

by lboros on Aug 26, 2006 1:10 PM EDT reply actions