duncan vs. will ohman

by sjoshi on Aug 19, 2006 9:49 PM EDT

i decided to further analyze the numbers leading up to la russa's decision to pinch hit encarnacion for duncan.

the method is tremendously flawed, but i wanted to see how duncan has performed in his first at-bat against a lefty. he had never faced ohman in his (major league) career, though if we had access to his minor league batter vs. pitcher stats, where i am sure they have faced each other, we could analyze the decision made by la russa with greater precision. i am sure that tony has access to these stats, and used them to make this decision.

since these are the only batter vs. pitcher stats i could come across, well, i was limited to lefties against whom he has one AB. like i said, the method was tremendously flawed. the method meant that lefties who he has faced multiple times (mark buehrle, jeff francis, etc) were left out. this may inflate his BA, as he has struggled against them. with that as the lead-up...

in his major league career, there are 13 left-handed pitchers against whom duncan has one, and only one, AB. his batting average is a respectable 4-13 (.307), with 2 singles, 2 homers, and 3 RBIs. still, i wouldn't let him bat in a key situation against a lefty he hasnt seen, unless it was against cincy. given the situation, i would rather have juan at the plate too.

(incidentally, if anybody knows how to better do a study like this, please let me know.)

the list goes as follows:

kline (sf) -> 0-1, RBI

duke (pit) -> 0-1

grabow (pit) -> 0-1, K

rhodes (phi) -> 0-1

shouse (mil) -> 0-1

dohman (kc) -> 0-1

martin (col) -> 0-1

milton (cin) -> 0-1

rusch (chn) -> 0-1

shackleford (cin) -> 1-1, single