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just win baby

if jason marquis keeps this up, he'll join a very select list of pitchers: guys who finished among the top 3 in wins in their league while posting an era of 5.00 or above. it has only happened 5 times since 1900:

name team year w-l era wins
rank
era
rank
ray kremer pit 1930 20-12 5.02 T1st 23/30
bobo newsom stl (a) 1938 20-16 5.08 2d 24/30
roxie lawson det 1937 18-7 5.26 3d 27/31
bartolo colon cle 2004 18-12 5.01 T3d 32/40
kevin ritz col 1996 17-11 5.28 T3d 37/41

in the "era rank" column in the table, the 2d number is the overall number of era-title qualifiers in the league -- to qualify, your innings pitched must be at least as high as the number of games your team played. so, for instance, ray kremer finished 23d in the league in era; there were 30 qualifiers overall. so his 5.02 era was still better than that of nearly 1/4 of the nl's pitchers.

this is not a terrible group of guys to get lumped in with. kremer didn't reach the major leagues until age 31 but still won 143 games in 10 years, plus 2 world series games (including the clincher in 1925); he twice led the league in era. newsom, one of the more colorful players of the 1930s and 40s, was on the 2d of his 3 tours of duty with the browns; he would follow this season with two more 20-win campaigns. he won 2 games in the 1940 world series and came within 9 outs of a 3d, but he took a 2-1 loss in a classic game 7. newsom led the league in losses four times and ranks 25th on the all-time list but still managed 211 wins, which ain't shabby.

colon you're familiar with; won a cy young award last season, is approaching 150 career wins and may well get to 200. finally there are lawson and ritz, neither of whom was much to speak of; marquis already has surpassed both of them in career wins. ritz's era, by the way, was very good; he was pitching at coors field at the height of its terror, so his park-adjusted era is better than league average.

marquis also has a shot at another, even more exclusive list: guys who won 15 or more games while finishing dead last in their league among era qualifiers. only two have achieved this honor: wayne lamaster in 1930 (his rookie season) and dan spillner 50 years later. spillner that season set career highs in wins, innings, starts, winning pct, and complete games while posting the worst era of his life. marquis moved out of last place with his performance yesterday; he is now 47th among the national league's 48 qualifiers.

on a third list, marquis has nearly reached the summit: most wins in franchise history (post-1900) by a pitcher with a 5.00 era or higher. the current record is 13, shared by bret tomko in 2003 (5.28 era) and hall-of-famer jesse haines in 1929 (5.71). i note, however, that bob tewksbury rightfully deserves that record; he had racked up 12 wins with a 5.32 era in 1994 when they called off the season.

tough luck for tewksie. jason's a lock to set a new standard, less'n he ruins ev'ything and drags his era down into the 4s. . . . . which he can do by posting an era of roughly 3.80 from here on out. should he backslide instead, marquis still has a shot at breaking the all-time franchise mark for highest era by a qualifier -- 5.93 by bill sherdel, also in 1929. (he and haines must have anchored a hell of a staff.) as of yesterday morning jason actually had sherdel beat by 0.04; his 8 shutout innings yesterday dropped his era to 5.62, still good for 4th on the franchise's worst-era list.

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Kinney
hasn't been nearly as sharp as I had hoped. Think it's nerves, or simply the realization that his stuff isn't good enough to consistently pitch in the zone?

by Pokey Joe on Jul 24, 2006 8:59 AM EDT   0 recs

Timo, in person
I went to the I-Cubs vs. Redbirds games in Des Moines yesterday and had seats right on the leftfield foul line, where Timo Perez started the game. I know he is a non-favorite of many posters here, but let me tell ya, seeing him in person was eye-opening. He is horrendous in the outfield.

In the first inning, the Cubs had the bases loaded, and a single came to Perez who proceeded to throw a high-arching floater over the cut-off man's head that allowed the hitter to advance to second. Then, in the later innings, a lazy fly ball down the line found open grass when Timo either got a bad read or took an awful path. (I don't know; I was watching the ball since it looked like might have had a chance at a keepsake.) After the play, a Cubs fan yelled, "Nice job, Timo! Way to attack that fly ball!"

I just wanted to pass along how bad his outfield play is when it is occuring twenty feet from you.

by bgh on Jul 24, 2006 9:11 AM EDT   0 recs

That's what's funny about pro baseball...
Timo had one of the best games I've seen from an outfielder last week -- decoyed a runner into not scoring from first on a double off the wall, then hosed a guy at second.  And if that wasn't enough, he went 3-4 with a triple and a long homer.

It's amazing how little one game can tell you, either way, about a player.

by whopperman on Jul 24, 2006 12:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

#21
I went to watch Marquis pitch on May 8 against the Rockies at Busch. He was absolutely terrible. It appeared to me that he was throwing batting practice. When he starts walking people is when he really gets in trouble. He then tries to make up with it trying to throw his fastball and the power posse usually makes him pay. I know when Jason is on, man he is hard to hit, but it seems like he has three or four bad starts before we get (what Jason can do) type of performance. I like Jason, but he is slowly making me turn the other way. I know he has good stuff, but we cant keep watching him get bombarded three out of four starts.

by fop197 on Jul 24, 2006 10:28 AM EDT   0 recs

his record
would indicate that he isn't getting shelled quite that often.  three out of four would have been worse than sir sid...
http://rabidredbird.blogspot.com

by gthedamned on Jul 24, 2006 11:00 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

hey
If youre gonna lose, do it in style. That seems to be Jason's mantra. If he loses 1-0 or 15-3 its still a loss.

Take away the two slow-pitch softball games and Marquis is 12-5 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.245 WHIP. Really, over 19 starts thats decent for a #4 starter type--which is what he is.

The problem is you never know when that game will come. If he would just forewarn us I think we would all like him a bit more :)

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Jul 24, 2006 11:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Bi-polar Betty
has no middle ground.

According to WPA, he's had 8 starts in which his pitching has hurt the team's chance to win by at least 10 points (50 pts constitutes a win/loss) and 10 in which he's helped the team by at least 10 points. That leaves only three starts in which he's only "kept his team in it."

As a whole, his pitching arm has helped the team win more than he's he's caused them to lose (overall WPA: 23.7). If he was performing like a #2 starter, he'd be closer to 150 by now. But that's not what he's here for; he's a #3 at best.

by Solanus on Jul 24, 2006 12:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

here's an interesting article
vis-vis pitchers who aren't so bad if you just take away their worst starts  ----

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/phranklin/

"A typical ERA qualifier with a bad season will improve his ERA by about a full run if you take out his four worst performances. . . . "

but as he goes on to show, that doesn't obviate the fact that they're lousy pitchers.

jason marquis is the type of starter no playoff team ever wants to throw --- there's too great a chance he will lose the game singlehanded.

by lboros on Jul 24, 2006 1:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

but
im sure many teams would love having a guy like marquis...one who has the ability to win games by himself throughout the regular season. like someone said, he has helped the cardinals more often than hurt them and there are quite a few teams who could use that in the regular season.

by lopey986 on Jul 24, 2006 1:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Streaky
Has it occurred to anyone else that Marquis epitomizes this year's ball club?  The birds, like Marquis, can be untouchable one day and completely shit the bed the next day -- a series sweep of the Rockies, followed by an absolute thrashing by the White Sox and Tigers.  Or a sweep of the Dodgers followed by two poundings by the Braves  

Sure, we have the usual reliable players like Pujols, Rolen, and Eckstein.  Most of the other guys on the team, however, are streaky -- Edmonds, Encarnacion, Marquis, Izzy, and even Carpenter has been a little streaky this year (at least more than normal . . . it hardly seems fair to mention him in the same sentence as Izzy).

I point this out because I kind of like it.  I firmly believe that the team that gets hot at the right time does well in the playoffs, with the hottest team winning it all.  I know the 06' Cards aren't as good as the 04' Cards, but IF the Cards get hot, I like their chances.  Even if they don't get hot in the regular season, I think they still win the division, which gives them A CHANCE to catch fire in the playoffs.  I'm just rambling now, but what does everyone think?

by Ray Lankford on Jul 24, 2006 10:29 AM EDT   0 recs

I kind of feel the same way,
but at other times logic kicks in and I feel like this whole theory is, in fact, what you call rambling ... very subjective, and more likely a case of me just projecting my wishful thinking on to reality.

But ... if we just run with this for a second and think about possible psychological mechanisms, there might be something to it.  Maybe a team that kicks ass every day (like the '04 Cardinals) gets so used to things going their way that they are unprepared for a sudden bout of adversity.  I think about the Rams when they were at their peak, toying with almost everyone. On those rare occasions when someone threw something new at them (i.e., the Patriots in the Super Bowl), the facade comes crumbling down and they don't know how to cope with it.  A streaky team, on the other hand, knows disaster can strike any time, in fact they expect it since it happens once a week, so don't get so easily flustered when it comes along.

Or not.  My rational self may regret this post by tomorrow.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 24, 2006 11:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hot teams
just seem to do well in the playoffs.  I am thinking about the past two WS champs as an easy example.  As you point out, I think this holds somewhat true in other sports too -- think NCAA basketball.  

by Ray Lankford on Jul 24, 2006 12:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

consistency
This team clearly (to me, anyway) is not nearly as consistent as the previous 2 Cardinals' teams.  You're right that Marquis seems to epitomize that lack of consistency.  Sometimes we get a start or 2 out of Marquis that makes me think, "this guy could be what we need to get over the hump in October."  Then, he'll make Sidney Ponson look like Bob Gibson.  Hell, his stats illustrate that:  1st in the league in wins, 2nd to last in ERA.  Can you imagine what other scouts and GM's must think?  He'll be a free agent this offseason.  I guess someone will give him 3 years and $20-25 million.  Everyone seems to get that.  But it's a risky investment.

I thought this year might be his breakout year.  He's what, 28 now?  About the time when SP's start to come into their own and figure it out.  I've still got my hopes up for him but it's no wonder that LaRussa has had little faith in him the last 2 postseasons.  How will it work out this October if Suppan is back on track, Mulder comes back w/ healthy and with good mechanics, and Weaver establishes some consistency?  I guess that's why LaRussa gets the big bucks!

by houstoncardinal on Jul 24, 2006 10:43 AM EDT   0 recs

Carpenter streaky?
I disagree regarding Carpenter. His lack of sharpness earlier in the year has been attributed to discomfort in his shoulder. Since he's come back he's been in Cy Young form and continues to get sharper (for the most part). If the Birds would give him a little support he'd be the one leading the league in wins.

by Pokey Joe on Jul 24, 2006 10:46 AM EDT   0 recs

Good point
I forgot about his DL stint.  I also agree about his lack of early run support.  

by Ray Lankford on Jul 24, 2006 10:51 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Community #18 Cardinals Prospect
Hello everyone,
Please, head over to the Community Top 20 Cardinals Prospects diary and vote for the #18 prospect ASAP.  Here is the link:
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2006/7/24/105425/301

Thanks for voting.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 24, 2006 11:03 AM EDT   0 recs

OUT OF IT
I have been away from this site since Wednesday.  My wife gave birth to our son, Maddox Rolen Schnake.  He had a stint in intensive care, but no worries, he is home healthy now.  

What is everyones thoughts on our hot streak before the trade deadline?  does this mean we are better off because the other teams don't think we aren't as needy and therefore helps in our bargaining, or does this make the cardinals less likely to trade?  I was relegated to getting news through the hospital TV.. ie ESPN.  they said we were in the running for a philly Pat Burrell or Bobby Abreau...  thoughts?  

by Schnake on Jul 24, 2006 11:52 AM EDT   0 recs

that double negative was
unintentional,  i do think we are needy, but wonder about other GMs.

by Schnake on Jul 24, 2006 11:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

First off,
congrats on the baby boy. Wonder where that middle name came from? ;)
About Burrell and Abreu... don't hold your breath. Gillick is literally asking for the farm for Abreu. He just turned down a deal with the Yankee$, because it didn't include Phillip Hughes. Any team not willing to trade high end talent will get a "thanks, but no thanks" from Philly. He might accept a little less for Burrell, but it'll still be expensive.

by cardsrul on Jul 24, 2006 12:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

"Maddox," huh?
So which of the two '70s centerfielders is being remembered---Elliott of Garry? Or is it (God forbid) the former segrerationist Georgia governor, Lester?

by salvomania on Jul 24, 2006 12:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

actually
the yankees didnt even offer ANY major league ready talent...maybe if they would do that then they wouldnt have to give up hughes. plus, the yankees arent positive abreu has the mental makeup to handle the pressures of playing in NYC.

by lopey986 on Jul 24, 2006 2:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Burrell
Ive been beating this drum but I really do believe that Burrell is the better option for the Cardinals over Abreu. I outlined the whole thing a few days ago (cheaper $ and prospect wise with MUCH MUCH more power and not a huge drop on OBP over Abreu) I would be willing to bet that the Phillies would take Marquis straight up for Burrell or maybe Burrell plus one mid-level prospect (Naverson?)We wouldn't have to trade Reyes and Rasmus to get Burrell but thats probably what we would have to trade to go Abreu (who has lost ALL his power... Juan has equalled the number of HRs this year that Abreu has had since the All-star break of last year).

by BigMac545 on Jul 24, 2006 12:30 PM EDT   0 recs

I agree...
Burrell is a better option IMO, but he is still probably too expensive.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 24, 2006 12:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Cost
If we're going to pay what either of those two are due on the ends of their contracts, why not trade for Soriano and attempt to sign him to a new deal? This is, of course, assuming that the Phils don't eat some of the contract, which, I doubt that they'd do given that they are already doing so with Thome.

by bgh on Jul 24, 2006 12:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I too have been on the Burrell bandwagon
I think he would be a nice addition to LF and then Duncan could get at bats versus righties by alternatively filling in for him or Enc.  

However, I completely disagree that the Phils would take Marquis.  Why on earth would they want him?  They're pretty much out of the playoff race.  They are six games out of the WC, but more importantly have about 9 teams ahead of them. Why would they want a rent-a-wreck like Marquis?  

So realistically I think the cost is much higher than what you suggest.

OC Cards Fan

by OCCardsFan on Jul 24, 2006 1:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Marquis
is a good young arm... true he is a FA but if we let the Phillies work out an extension w him before the trade then all is well... Jason is only 26 has a good MLB track record and could be a vetran presence on a staff that is full of young up and coming prospects...

by BigMac545 on Jul 24, 2006 1:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

actually
marquis is 28.

by lopey986 on Jul 24, 2006 1:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

$13m and $14m
in 2007 and 2008.  Ouch.

by sdrone on Jul 24, 2006 2:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Soriano
I think that makes a lot of sense. I would prefer Soriano to either of those two. I'd say that you could probably trade a package of prospects that doesn't include Reyes or Rasmus and maybe includes one of our FA to be starting pitching so long as we open up a window for Washington to talk to them and try to get an extension signed. I bet we could get Soriano for Marquis, Hawksworth and Haether or something a long those lines... thou I havent really heard what Washington is asking for.

The problem with Soriano is that I really dont want Soriano anywhere near the top of the lineup. If we were to trade for him I think the best lineup would be something like this...

Eck
Jimmy
Albert
Rolen
Soriano
Juan
Luna
Yadi

by BigMac545 on Jul 24, 2006 12:50 PM EDT   0 recs

soriano
has been best when he has been batting leadoff...but that may just be because of a small sample size for when he isnt batting leadoff. i think soriano would be just fine in the 2 hole.

by lopey986 on Jul 24, 2006 1:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

2 hole
Soriano strikes out way to much to hit second. He has already struck out 88 times this season. His OBP is pretty good but not great at .361 (which beats his career average by 40 points ... 43 walks this season which is already his career high). I would much rather hit Jimmy second. Jimmy strikes out about the same rate but draws more walks (he has the same number of walks in 120 less ABs that Soriano).

by BigMac545 on Jul 24, 2006 2:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd much rather . . .
have strikeouts in the two hole as opposed to double-play balls.  Any idea what Soriano's double play stats look like?

by Ray Lankford on Jul 24, 2006 2:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This all could be a moot point
ESPN is reporting the White Sox are close to a deal for Soriano in exchange for pitcher Brandon McCarthy.

by cardsrul on Jul 24, 2006 5:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The cost...
of Soriano is HUGE. Hence why the Tigers didn't land him. Bowden wanted both Sanchez and Maybin, 2 prospects better than our entire farm. We would have to give up Reyes, Rasmus, + a couple others to even hope to land Soriano. He's not worth it.
That's beer, that's Budweiser.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jul 24, 2006 2:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ESPN says
the white sox are very close to landing soriano

by PGeorge on Jul 24, 2006 3:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

OT: New blog ad
Hey LB, what's up with the new blog ad? This guy is making me miss the Astros Championship DVD thing...

:-D

"I grew up in Oklahoma, and once you start runnin' out there there ain't nothin' to stop you" - Johnny Leonard Roosevelt "Pepper" Martin

by iron duke75 on Jul 24, 2006 2:19 PM EDT   0 recs

he's kind of like
a disheveled leslie neilsen, circa "naked gun"

by lboros on Jul 24, 2006 5:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

haines and sherdel
i am not an expert on cardinal history, but i know enough of it to bristle a bit when you diminish the pitching prowess of old pop haines and willie sherdel.
please remember that the cards won the pennantin 1928 and 1930 with those two stalwarts as anchors on their pitching staff. also keep in mind that those were halcyon days for the major league hitters reaching the zenith of hitting prowess in 1930 when the league average was damned near .300. and those 2 guys most likely had to stay in the game and face the music no matter how badly things were going for them. no 6 inning wonders, those 2.
to compare those days with these is quite a stretch, even though i believe that the hitters today are a far better prepared crew and probably better in every respect.

by dembitz on Jul 24, 2006 2:29 PM EDT   0 recs

fair criticism
for the record, haines and sherdel rank 2d and 4th, respectively, on the cards' all-time wins leaderboard; they rank 1st and 3d, respectively, in games pitched (gibson is 2d). and yes, they brought some champ'ships to river city -- both men won 20 games on the '28 pennant winner.

haines won 2 games (including #7) in the '26 series; he pitched in 6 series games overall for st louis with a 1.67 era in 32 innings.

by lboros on Jul 24, 2006 5:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

jason
doesn't jason need an out pitch (curveball) to become a super ptcher?

by dembitz on Jul 24, 2006 2:32 PM EDT   0 recs

I think he
needs a lot more than that ;-)

by rockin redbird on Jul 24, 2006 2:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

soriano to white sox
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2528494

and they are gettin mcdougal. i dont think a second WS is too far off.

by lopey986 on Jul 24, 2006 3:33 PM EDT   0 recs

Well, it ain't done yet
I'm not sure where they're gonna play him.  Left and get rid of Podsednik?   Left and move Pods to center and get rid of Anderson?   2nd and trade Iguchi?

Plus, if they trade McCarthy, that payroll is gonna get even higher, since he was gonna be cheap for a few years.

by sdrone on Jul 24, 2006 3:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It's not going to happen....(trust me)
although it sounds like it will.

by stanchar on Jul 24, 2006 4:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Call Kenny back and tell him to give us a pitcher
Was Detroit interested enough that hte Sox wanted to throw up a smokescreen?

by sdrone on Jul 24, 2006 4:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes.........
they may get him and move him on, but definitely acquiring Soriano so Detroit doesn't is part of the plan.  

by stanchar on Jul 24, 2006 4:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

hah. But you just said
it's not gonna happen.

Which is the odds on call to make, but you can't have it both ways!

by sdrone on Jul 24, 2006 5:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

WHITE SOX TRADE........
not Soriano but they did complete a trade for Mike MacDougal today for two prospects.

by stanchar on Jul 24, 2006 4:15 PM EDT   0 recs

White Sox-Soriano---Put Up the White Flag Now
Is there any team anywhere that can compete with the ChiSox with Soriano in their line up?  

Maybe I'm still bruising from the thrashing they gave the Cards, but I can't think of any team that needs Soriano less.  

I guess the question for the National League will be, "Which team wants the honor of getting bulldozed in the Fall Classic?"  Personally, I don't know that I'm up for another WS sweep.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Jul 24, 2006 4:29 PM EDT   0 recs

Apparently
the Tigers, Yankees, and Rangers can.

by sdrone on Jul 24, 2006 5:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Don't throw in the towel.
If we make the playoffs, we've got a chance, because (once you're in the playoffs), regular season records mean very little:

In no year from 2000 to 2005 did the team with the best regular season record win the Series (sadly, that includes the 2004 Redbirds). In four of those years, the team with the best regular season record didn't make it to the Series (Seattle in 2001 won 116(!) in the regular season but didn't survive the playoffs). No team that won 100 or more regular season games has won the World Series since 2000.

The average number of regular season wins by Series winners from 2000 - 2005 is 94.3; the average number of wins by Series losers from 2000 - 2005 is 96.5.

by madridbend on Jul 24, 2006 6:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Community #19 Prospect
Hey folks,
Please vote for the Cards #19 prospect over at the Community Top 20 diary.  The Nicks (Stavinoha and Webber) are locked in a close race, so get your votes in.  Here is the link:
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2006/7/24/133328/411

Thanks for voting.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 24, 2006 4:36 PM EDT   0 recs

FYI
#20 is now up.  Check the sidebar and vote, please.  Thanks everyone.
"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 24, 2006 5:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

mlbtraderumors.com
mlbtraderumors.com is reporting that trump wants to buy the flubs. Uhhh yeah... I can only imagine what that team salary would look like....

by TNFan32 on Jul 24, 2006 5:09 PM EDT   0 recs

and cuban
supposedly is interested in buying the pirates at some point.

by PGeorge on Jul 24, 2006 5:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Cards trades
I don't think the Cards will do much before the deadline, maybe a relief pitcher or something.

However, I could see Walt pulling an August deal for Luis Gonzalez if he clear waivers (like Walker or Woody Williams).  I think that is the most likely scenario.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 24, 2006 5:10 PM EDT   0 recs

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