If you are Walt and the Willis Rumors are true

by erik on Jul 21, 2006 1:11 AM EDT Comment 29 comments

If you haven't heard by now...http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/07/cardinals_discu.html

Do you pull the trigger on this deal? Most of us here probably know the pros and cons of this thing by now. Seems to me like a pretty big gamble, but as Valatan pointed out so is doing nothing...

Reyes has an injury history and has yet to throw over 150 innings in a season.

Willis is the same age, an established big leaguer, throwing 5 pro seasons, 1 Cy Young worthy, but still the questions remain if he will stay healthy. Both project to put up similiar numbers, yet Willis has the track record but he costs basically the farm. What do you all think?

Poll

Do you pull the trigger?

Yep. Reyes, Rasmus and Co are still not certain stars and Willis is

166 votes

No way. Reyes, Rasmus, Duncan and another? That's too much to give up

181 votes

347 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

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Comments

Too much

to give up, unless it's Roy Halladay, Johann Santana, or maybe Buerhle.

by cardsrul on Jul 21, 2006 1:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

Yes, yes, no: Buehrle's not worth that, Santana or Halladay are.

by SirVLCIV on Jul 21, 2006 6:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Too much

The top organization prospect, two MLB ready players (and one of them was the previous top organization prospect) and more?

They'd better go fishing. I would seriously doubt that even Santana and Halladay are worth that much.

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Jul 21, 2006 6:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the thing about this whole deal

that kinda turns my stomach. It's not that Willis can't be an ace, he can. It's not that Willis isn't a good pitcher and an upgrade he is. But this year he's been off. If he's rebounding that's great but is he worth a ML ready pitcher, our (projected) CF of the future who has looked stellar thus far, a LF/1b who appears to have 20+ HR power possible more plus ANOTHER prospect. Ouch. Maybe it would be a Willis Plus Borowski type deal but I just feel like its WAY to much...

by azruavatar on Jul 21, 2006 8:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Posters on this blog...

tend to overvalue prospects. The numbers are very harsh for minor leaguers... even the top ranked ones often flame out, and when you're talking about single-a guys, the odds are very long. Better to move those guys out for sure things (or close to sure things) if you have the financial resources to do so.

Its really a Reyes for Willis deal like the blogger said, and that's pretty much a toss of the coin except for this year when Willis would be better.

by guayzimi on Jul 21, 2006 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's not the prospects, it's the target

I voted no, reflecting my lack of confidence in Willis. As I commented in the main thread, Schmidt is the best bet out there, and if this package were enough to land him, I wouldn't shed too many tears for the players we've given up. One for Reyes, maybe, because I like his makeup.

by taiko on Jul 21, 2006 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would take

I would take Willis over Schmidht in a heart beat. We would have Willis on contract till 08 compared to Schmidhts FA status.

by DimitroffVodka on Jul 21, 2006 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Contract Status

Is why I voted YES on this deal. Willis is still young and is locked up through 2008. To me, that reduces the risk considerably as compared to trading a Reyes or a Wainwright for a rental player who may or may not be any better than Willis come October.

Pujols For MVP!

by TheFranchise9 on Jul 21, 2006 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention...

Back in the spring of 1997 (?), my dad - who really doesn't follow baseball all that much - told me that the Cardinals were going to trade for that big home run hitter on the A's. I laughed at him.

Well this spring, I decided to test him and asked if the Cards would do anything big this year. He said yes and that it would be the lefty starting pitcher down in Florida.

So I gotta hope it happens...simply incredible.

Pujols For MVP!

by TheFranchise9 on Jul 21, 2006 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, time for full disclosure.

We can't evaluate until you tell us about some of his wrong predictions! =D

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 21, 2006 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually,

those are the only two times he's done it. That's what makes it so insane.

Pujols For MVP!

by TheFranchise9 on Jul 21, 2006 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Count Me in Favor of this Deal

It's aggressive. It positions the team to win, at a minimum, this year and the next.

The only real downside I see is the fear of Mulder II. But Willis isn't Mulder. I don't see why we should treat him as if he were.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Jul 21, 2006 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i'm extremely against it

Mostly because it includes Rasmus, our only top notch hitting prospect in how many years.

But think about it logically, is getting Willis going to help us win it all in 2006? The answer is no. We are still 2 or 3 moves away from putting together a WS caliber team. We need another solid bullpen arm and another power bat in the lineup to have a chance. Only accomplishing one goal--beefing up the starting rotation--won't make the others fade away. And if we're throwing this much talent at them, it just isn't worth it.

by fpslackers on Jul 21, 2006 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But getting Willis...

...makes the starters (Soup/Marquis/etc.) expendable in a deal for another bullpen arm or outfielder.

by GoCrazyFolks on Jul 21, 2006 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We aren't two moves away

this is a bad deal in my opinion and I've stated that above but I don't get this 2 or 3 moves away sentiment.

Are we going to win 100 games this year - no. But a team can be built for the playoffs and not built for a 162 game season. For 162 games you need at least 4 dependable (I use that term loosely this year) starters. For the playoffs you need 2 aces. The offense has to be good for the playoffs but not great.

The MV3 can cover a multitude of sins. If we acquire an ace pitcher (Schmidt!) and trade away Duncan in the process, then I think all this team would need is a dependable LF a la Craig Wilson. Our bullpen is good when not overexposed by bad starters. Carp + Schmidt (or or the sake of some opinions on this thread - Willis) gives you 2 aces. Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds and to lesser extents Eckstien, Encarnacion and Luna are all capable of providing the needed offense. Yadi gets a pass for defense. The only worrisome cipher is LF w/o Duncan (or if he stops producing).

You can't garuantee a World Series. All you do is stack the deck in your favor. Have 2 aces, a good bullpen, and a good offense. Its not gauranteed but you have to remember that everyone the Royals manage to beat someone during the regular season ... baseball's like that.

by azruavatar on Jul 21, 2006 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Every year

not everyone...

lboros - are we ever going to get an edit function...I'm too stupid to do things correctly the first time ;)

by azruavatar on Jul 21, 2006 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wish we could edit

i do have the edit function on the main page, so i can correct all my gaffes (or most on'm). but in the comments i am stuck w whatever fool thought pops outta me head.

no edit function any time soon; all the SB bloggers are clamoring for it, but it's far down the list . . . .

by lboros on Jul 21, 2006 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

curses

I'm an engineer...I'm not supposed to be articulate...maybe I'll just write all my posts in a binary notation from now on...

by azruavatar on Jul 21, 2006 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't octal

be shorter?

Nice to see another engineer on here.

by ArkansasTravs on Jul 22, 2006 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I get really lazy I'll write in hex

by azruavatar on Jul 22, 2006 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's kinda sad how funny I found your comment

ah well...

by azruavatar on Jul 22, 2006 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Engineers

I bet you guys think you're pretty smart, don't ya?

:-D

"I grew up in Oklahoma, and once you start runnin' out there there ain't nothin' to stop you" - Johnny Leonard Roosevelt "Pepper" Martin

by iron duke75 on Jul 22, 2006 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who wants Marquis or Suppan?

Honestly, what GM in his right mind would want one of the 6+ ERA guys?

by SirVLCIV on Jul 21, 2006 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well...

Suckass ERA aside, Marquis will probably still be a 15 game-winner this year (and in a year where Bird offense and defense is down). That can look mighty tasty to a GM who badly needs a #3 or 4.

by rockin redbird on Jul 21, 2006 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thier ERAs

Are actually less than 6 not 6+. Pitching even mediocre pitching is a valuable commodity.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 21, 2006 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marquis - Take out the 2 horrific outings...

and Marquis' ERA is 4.59. He will be 28 in August. A GM will look at that and possibly deal something in return. What, I don't know. Perhaps just a prospect not a major leaguer. If a prospect, I would rather just keep Marquis.

Suppan is older (31) and seems to be declining. I don't think there is anything we can get for him. We should keep him as a 4th or 5th starter for this season and then let him go or try to sign him for much less money next season(probably will not happen).

IMHO, most baseball people have a feeling that they can "fix" people. A GM might look at Marquis and say, "I'll bet my pitching coach can do something with him". We all know that it won't work but people with big egos try anyway.

by jdubya on Jul 21, 2006 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

General thought.....

Like most I'd ideally like to develop players on our own--it's pretty cool to draft a guy, watch him scott through the minors, and then produce with the big league club.

All Cardinal fans certainly lament our recent woes in developing minor league talent (other than Sir Albert, Yady, a couple of others)....BUT, the bottom line is the Cardinals are winning, winning, winning. Yes, it's been 24 years since our last title but since 1996 I think it's a 60% success rate as far as making the post-season and this is with a general failure of the organization to reap minor league talent. As an aside, one could make a good argument that when a guy like Pujols comes around the system could be a success on this alone...maybe.

Anyway, I guess what I'm trying to say is that I don't mind giving up young talent because not that we are big spenders necessarily---but we find a way to build consistently strong teams, and this likely will continue.

by stanchar on Jul 21, 2006 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm very torn on this trade but

if the Marlins throw in Borowski or a young prospect, I'd start to lean towards yes.

by stltrav09 on Jul 21, 2006 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A little more than Willis

I tend to agree if the Cards are going to give up most of their farm system, at least they could get a little more than Willis. Maybe throw in a decent reliever as well.

by fop197 on Jul 24, 2006 10:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs